Josh Culp's Blog, page 24

WGC-HSBC Champions Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR stays in Asia for one more week, which means earlier start times, which means lower GPP prize pools again on DraftKings. On the bright side, at least the HSBC didn’t get the Sanderson Farms treatment, but more on that tomorrow.

First, let’s have a look at the course. It’s Sheshan International, a par 72 layout of moderate length that features a seashore paspalum & rye grass mixture, tee-to-green, but bentgrass once you reach the green complexes. The course does a good job of mixing the holes. For example, there are four par 4s under 410 yards but also five par 4s over 450 yards. The par 5s are mostly reachable, and it’s one of the easiest ways to rack up your high score here in China. All four of the par 3s are right at 200 yards or greater so precision with the long irons is preferred.

The rough here is pretty nasty, as we see one of the larger differentials in terms of hitting the green from the fairway vs other. The field average from the fairways has been right around 80% while it’s just 50% from “other.” That explains why we’ve seen plodders like G-Mac and Poulter fare well here. Keeping it between the pipes is a nice advantage. At the same time, three of the par 5s are quite feastable, like I mentioned above. That puts the advantage back into the bomber’s hands. For DraftKings purposes, I will try to focus on bombers, birdie makers, and par-5 scorers. Accuracy is not something I’m requiring, but it’s definitely a big boost if they also share some of the birdie-making qualities I desire.

Looking for courses or events with similar setups, I found the following to be correlated: the Memorial, Northern Trust Open, WGC Bridgestone, Deutsche Bank Championship, and The Masters. A few bonus tracks that popped up this year, but aren’t on the annual rota are Bethpage Black and Crooked Stick. Using course history at those 7 venues might be a nice tiebreaker this week.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… Has a full of rack of course history to salivate over. In five visits his worst result is a T11, and that came last year when he was dealing with food poisoning ahead of the event. There are talks of equipment change this week, but I’m not letting that sway me either way. Even with his Nike driver, he had weeks were his longest measured carry distance was over 330 yards. He’s already the best driver of the golf ball in the world, or at least in the top 5, so his gains can’t be extreme. If he found a magic putter on the other hand? Then I’d be licking my chops. Despite that seemingly negative outlook on Rory, I think he could play with Old Tom Morris’ set of sticks and still be the man to beat.

Dustin Johnson… Likely 1B to Rory’s 1A. DJ won the 2014 edition, picking up 28 birdies and 2 eagles on the way! He won that week despite carding THREE double bogeys. Really sounds like the ideal DK play this week.

Martin Kaymer… When the German likes a course, you can back him blindly regardless of form. Sheshan fits the bill as he’s won (2011) and posted four other top 10s in seven starts here.

Emiliano Grillo… The unicorn we’re looking for this week is straight as an arrow off the tee while also being longer than average, and bombards greens with the best of them. That’s pretty much the profile for Grillo. His specialist status for bentgrass greens continues to grow as well. Full speed ahead for the Argentine.

Patrick Reed… Had a bit of a Ryder Cup hangover last week, but he usually doesn’t avoid the top 10 for long. He’s been one of the most consistent golfers over the past 12 months, so I expect him to soar back into contention this week.

Paul Casey… Had Justin Rose’s caddie (Fooch) on the bag for him last week and finally had an average finish. Was it the calm before the storm? I’m hoping so because he’s high on my list of potential One-and-Done candidates this week. Other than his WD (after 3 rds) in his debut here, he’s posted a pair of top 10s and two other top 25s. Solid course history and still solid form.

Henrik Stenson… Should be a ripe fit for Sheshan given his length and accuracy right? Zero top 10s in five tries would say otherwise. Over the last few seasons he’s actually quite a bit worse on par 72 layouts. That may be due to him having to pull driver a bit more than he’d like to or maybe it’s just random. The Swede also hasn’t reed it up since the Ryder Cup where the strength of his knee was somewhat in question. Might be dangerous but given his health (WD risk), potential rust, and poor course history, I’m pumping out the POWER FADE on Stenson this week.

Young-han Song… He’s yet to burn me and he’s looked solid in all three of his PGA TOUR starts. May be flawed logic, but I’m going to ride him until he burns me. Should continue to have low ownership on DraftKings.

Byeong Hun An… He’s Mister Asia, but he let us down last week. I’m not just saying that because he’s Asian. His results speak volumes, posting top 10s in seven of his last 12 starts in Asia (PGA & Euro Tour). I’m willing to jump back on the train considering the no-cut nature this week.

Thomas Pieters… His ownership will likely be through the roof this week, priced right at the average salary mark. He’s yet to really prove his dominance on the PGA TOUR but it’s just a matter of time. In a small field, no-cut event like this, Pieters could be a possible fade if you want to jump ahead of the masses given a mediocre or poor showing. It’s a risky proposition, though because he can rack up birdies quickly.

Bernd Wiesberger… Quietly taking care of business on the Euro Tour this year. I’d love Bernd if this was a full-field event played on this same venue. However, a lot of his value comes in his reliability.

Branden Grace… If you have the marbles, Grace makes for a great GPP option in DraftKings this week. His week is way off the tracks, but his raw skill is top 20 in the field. He finished T34 in the Venetian Macao Open! Something is a bit off in his game, so I won’t get carried away, myself.

My Top 25 for the 2017 WGC-HSBC

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Paul Casey

4. Sergio Garcia

5. Emiliano Grillo

6. Patrick Reed

7. Adam Scott

8. Bubba Watson

9. Hideki Matsuyama

10. Martin Kaymer

11. Justin Thomas

12. Matt Kuchar

13. Francesco Molinari

14. Russell Knox

15. Brooks Koepka

16. Thomas Pieters

17. Rickie Fowler

18. Rafa Cabrera Bello

19. Si Woo Kim

20. Byeong Hun An

21. Bill Haas

22. Kevin Chappell

23. Ross Fisher

24. Gary Woodland

25. Louis Oosthuizen

Portugal Masters Fantasy Preview

DraftKings continues to give Euro Tour the cold shoulder, but my previews must go on! I will just keep them brief for the time being.

This week we are in Portugal as we head to the Victoria Clube de Golfe Course, designed by the legendary Arnold Palmer. The course is very friendly, as we’ll likely see a few 63s or lower this week. The Euro Tour even has an article up about the coveted 59, so I guess they think we could see one this week. I won’t go that far, but the field has average -0.66 strokes relative to par over the nine editions, so birdies will definitely be on the docket.

Players to Watch

Ricardo Gouveia… He’s hit a slump but if you’ve read my previews all year, you know Ricky G is my man. There is no way I’m going to let him slide back in his home event. Fire him back up!

Nicolas Colsaerts… At $9,200 he’s a good salary-saving option if you don’t want to break the bank on Noren/Pieters. Colaserts has finished 18-2-15 the last three editions here.

Anthony Wall… Has played all nine editions here at Victoria GC. Has finished 21st or better in six of them. He loves the layout.

Robert Karlsson… A course horse that’s been hibernating. His last good finish here was a runner-up in 2010, but that was one of his THREE podium finishes at this course, in five tries.

Thomas Aiken… Continues to play well in Europe after a disappointing stint in the US. Solid play.

Romain Wattel… Has posted 22-3-26 in three visits to this event. A nice under-the-radar course horse in training.

Thongchai Jaidee… Withdrew from the event, so pull him from your lineups.

Alex Noren… He’s locked in with three wins over his last seven stroke-play starts! He should be extremely popular, so it’s likely a good idea to pivot in GPPs. He can’t win 4-outta-8, can he?

Tommy Fleetwood… Not hitting the winner’s circle like Noren, but Fleetwood has rattled off five straight top 15s. With three straight top 30s at this event, he also lines up nicely for the course. If I had to pick one just one guy this week with the best chance of winning, I’d go for Tommy Boy.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Portugal Masters

1. Tommy Fleetwood

2. Alex Noren

3. Thomas Pieters

4. Nicolas Colsaerts

5. Thomas Aiken

6. Padraig Harrington

7. Andy Sullivan

8. Mikko Korhonen

9. Peter Hanson

10. Ricardo Gouveia

11. Anthony Wall

12. Scott Jamieson

13. David Lipsky

14. Adrian Otaegui

15. Romain Wattel

16. David Horsey

17. Robert Karlsson

18. Eduardo De La Riva

19. Maximilian Kieffer

20. Justin Walters

21. Magnus A. Carlsson

22. Alejandro Canizares

23. Joakim Lagergren

24. Robert Rock

25. Nino Bertasio

CIMB Classic Fantasy Preview

After a rain-soaked Safeway Open, we now head overseas for the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

The course is a familiar one although the name is new, TPC Kuala Lumpur, which previously went by Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club. It’s a short par 72 layout with seashore paspalum greens.

While we may have left rainy Napa, we can’t put away our raincoats and umbrellas just yet. There are decent percentages of rain throughout the week in KL, but that’s nothing new as this event has seen preferred lies in 10-of-12 rounds. It looks like it will be hot and muggy once again, so we may see some T-storms pop up to delay play here and there. Nothing new, since that’s been the story of the entire 2016 calendar year on the PGA TOUR!

If you read quotes from the players, you’ll get varying opinions on the rough difficulty and also varying opinions on what is most important. The majority of golfers cite the importance of hitting fairways but that’s in large part to soaked conditions this event has been played in, allowing golfers to lift, clean, and place from the short grass. Soaked fairways also help eliminate run-out on the fairways, making it easier to keep the ball inside the pipes.

The difficulty of the rough has varied from year-to-year, likely in large part due to the weather leading up to the event each year. Last year the rough was basically non-existent as golfers still managed 62% of greens from lies other than the fairway. That’s a stark contrast to the years prior (53% and 50%) which put a bigger premium on splitting the fairways. If you can get any intel on the rough pre-tournament, that could pay dividends. If it’s playing like last year then it’s BOMBS AWAY. Otherwise, it’s a slight lean on accuracy with bombers still being preferred. With three of the four par 5s measuring less than 540 yards, many of the longer hitters can be going for the greens quite easily (using irons). There are also five par 4s that measure less than 410 yards which cater to some of the shorter hitters.

That is exactly why two of the course horses (Gary Woodland and Ryan Moore) have nearly exact opposite play styles. The bombers can attack the par 5s here but the shorter hitters can plod their way around the fairways and focus on course strategy over distance.

Looking for correlated events, we can have a look at the Shriners, RBC Heritage, OHL Mayakoba, Valspar, and Safeway Open. These are all relevant in terms of either course setup, climate, or preferred lies commonly used.

Head over to the Fantasy Golfanac for more player quotes and tournament statistics.

Players to Watch

Rafa Cabrera Bello… If you look at 2016 strokes gained stats, only Adam Scott gained more strokes per round last season. If you look at course performance at TPC KL of golfers in the field this week, only Ryan Moore has gained more cumulative strokes here than RCB. Of course, that’s including Euro Tour action at this venue, but his course knowledge is relevant nonetheless. Playing in the Malaysian Open, he’s collected a pair of top 5s, a top 25, and a pair of missed cuts. With trends converging nicely, I think RCB could finally be in for a PGA TOUR win this week.

Sergio Garcia… Sticking with the Spaniards, Garcia looks to be as safe as they come this week. That’s a little scary typing that, because golf has a way of spitting in the face of predictability. Still, if I had to pick one golfer to finish in the top 25 this week, Sergio would be my pick. Last week, Kuchar would have been my safety pick, but then he found himself without his clubs due to Hurricane Matthew and couldn’t play up to his standard with the newly fitted set. As long as Sergio has his clubs this week, I think he’s safe. He’s losing his edge on longer courses as he ages, so I am starting to target him on shorter layouts. We’ll see if that trend continues in 2017.

Scott Piercy… Raced out to an early lead last week thanks to a hot putter but cooled as the week went on. Luckily, he now heads to a venue where he finished T7 last year. His last nine starts in no-cut events have yielded eight top 25s, so he generally keeps his nose in the mix when he gets four guaranteed rounds.

Paul Casey… EN FUEGO! If you like riding the hot hand, Casey is still your man. He’s gone 2-2-4-T3 over his last four starts.

Gary Woodland… Fresh off getting married, Woodland now heads to KL where he posted back-to-back runner-ups before last year’s T56. Had his second-best FedExCup finish of his career last year after re-uniting with Butch. This would be a great spot to finally get back in the winner’s circle.

Byeong Hun An… Over his last 10 starts in Asia (on the Euro Tour) he’s finished top 15 in NINE of them, throwing a WD in there for the 10th. Also finished T19 in the HSBC last year. Safe to say he feels comfy on this continent, so I’m giving him a big boost this week. Also one of the best in terms of Birdie of Better percentage so even if he stumbles, we get four guaranteed rounds with plenty of DraftKings scoring.

Anirban Lahiri… Much like An, Lahiri loves it in Asia. He’s won twice and also collected a runner-up over his last seven starts in Asia, on the Euro Tour. Last week he teed it up at the Venetian Macau Open, an Asian Tour event. It wasn’t the best of fields, but he posted a runner-up finish which is enough to spark my interest for DraftKings purposes. High upside, but also carries some DFL risk. Can also toss Scott Hend into this same Top 10 or DFL bucket.

Hideki Matsuyama… Also pegged it against inferior competition last week, but Matsuyama actually won (Japan Open Golf Championship). Finished fifth here last year, and don’t see any reason why he couldn’t improve upon that.

Patrick Rodgers… For a higher risk play, I’m attracted to Rodgers. He’s experimenting with new clubs now that he’s not forced to use Nike. Opened with 68 last week with that new bag of sticks before a 75 to miss the cut, but his distance is what appeals to me most. He’s beat the field scoring average in all seven of his starts on courses under 7,200 yards. In those starts, he’s gained 0.741 strokes (per round) more than his baseline strokes gained of 0.397, oh yesss. Should continually feast on three of the short par 5s all week.

Young-han Song… If you’re looking for a deep sleeper, Song may be the name you want to sing. He went toe-to-toe with Jordan Spieth in his Singapore win and posted finishes of T56 (PGA Championship) and T21 (WGC Bridgestone) in two PGA TOUR starts. At $7,300 on DraftKings, he’s not as cheap as I’d like but that should mean really, really low ownership.

My Top 25 for the 2016-17 CIMB Classic

1. Rafa Cabrera Bello

2. Adam Scott

3. Hideki Matsuyama

4. Sergio Garcia

5. Paul Casey

6. Byeong Hun An

7. Patrick Reed

8. Gary Woodland

9. Ryan Moore

10. Scott Piercy

11. Emiliano Grillo

12. Justin Thomas

13. Kevin Na

14. Tony Finau

15. Russell Knox

16. Keegan Bradley

17. Patrick Rodgers

18. Kevin Chappell

19. Brendan Steele

20. Branden Grace

21. Marc Leishman

22. Charles Howell III

23. Si Woo Kim

24. Alex Cejka

25. John Senden

British Masters Fantasy Preview

Going to keep this short and sweet since the main purpose of this article is for DraftKings and DK decided to forget about the Euro Tour this week. They didn’t forget about them entirely, but the contest sizes are laughable this week.

I’m really not sure what their strategy is with Euro Tour DFS but it seems to the 999th priority during NFL season. As someone who typically puts in anywhere from 40 to 150 lineups depending on the GPP sizes, it’s sad to have a week where I will likely make just one lineup. Maybe two. Oh well.

This week we head to The Grove in England for the British Masters. A new host course this year but it did host the 2006 WGC-American Express Championship so it’s not entirely new to all. The leaderboard for that event saw Tiger Woods at the top while the top 10 included names like Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Ian Poulter, Stuart Appleby, and Luke Donald. All extremely great ball-strikers or superbly accurate off the tee.

According to the Euro Tour website the fairways are generous, the greens are large bentgrass surfaces that are very undulated.

Players to Watch

Soren Kjeldsen… The Dane is my #1 this week. He fits the bill of being extremely accurate off the tee. Other than the WD due to stomach issues, he’s been fantastastic in 2016. What you lose in birdie-making volume, you gain back in finishing bonus.

Luke Donald… He’s hosting the event this week which brings a bit of concern that he’ll be distracted. However, I think playing close to home will be a big boost that I can’t ignore.

Nino Bertasio… I think he’s the easy value play to choose on DraftKings this week. He started way behind most of the field last week as he was making his course debuts while most of the field were well-acclimated to St. Andrews, Kingsbarns, and Carnoustie. He’ll start on a level playing field this week, so I think he jumps back inside the top 30 by week’s end.

Danny Willett… A great time to buy-low on the Englishman. Willett is as steady as they come over the past few seasons, so I expect him to rebound nicely after a poor Ryder Cup a disappointing Alfred Dunhill Links.

Thomas Aiken… Fits the same mold of Donald and Soren. Keep the ball in front of you. Hit fairways. Hit Greens. Hope to make a few putts.

Graeme McDowell… Copy-Paste from Aiken above.

Thongchai Jaidee… He’s really getting up their in age but his game isn’t slowing down. Back in 2006 he cracked the top 10 here, so he’s got that going for him. A top 30 should definitely be in the cards this week.

My Top 25 for the 2016 British Masters

1. Soren Kjeldsen

2. Alex Noren

3. Bernd Wiesberger

4. Thongchai Jaidee

5. Luke Donald

6. Tyrrell Hatton

7. Danny Willett

8. Thomas Aiken

9. Richard Bland

10. Gregory Bourdy

11. Andy Sullivan

12. Matthew Fitzpatrick

13. Shane Lowry

14. Tommy Fleetwood

15. Bradley Dredge

16. Ross Fisher

17. Lee Westwood

18. Chris Wood

19. Joost Luiten

20. Nicolas Colsaerts

21. Nino Bertasio

22. Fabrizio Zanotti

23. Richard Sterne

24. Andrew Johnston

25. Graeme McDowell

Safeway Open Fantasy Preview

After the much-anticipated return of the Tiger Woods, we can set our watches for another seven weeks or so as the Big Cat announced he’s not ready to return to action. He still owes the PGA TOUR an appearance at the Safeway Open unless they deem he’s fulfilled his duties through ticket sales alone the few times he’s committed here and then backed out. So maybe we’ll see him in Napa next year!

There is no Tiger but the show will definitely still go on! The event is the Safeway Open, previously the Frys.com Open and it’s held at Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course in Napa, California. Golfers can enjoy a nice glass of pinot off the course but on the course they will be greeted by a par 72 layout with poa annua greens.

The beauty of the course is that it brings the entire field into play. At just 7,203 yards it becomes a second-shot course for the most part with plenty of wedges into greens. Andres Gonzales had this to say in 2014, “You can hit driver, you can hit 3-wood, you can hit whatever you want, but I don’t know if anybody is going to be overpowering the course.”

Adding to that, Martin Laird noted that a high ball flight is certainly advantageous since the tournament officials try to get tricky with some of the pin placements since the course doesn’t have much length and the rough is not too penal. It’s not penal in the sense that you won’t have to be punching out just to survive the hole. It’s still best to stripe the fairways as much as possible, especially with the tricky pin placements we just talked about. Hitting the greens won’t be hard out of the rough, but holding them and getting the proper spin control is where approaching from the fairway comes in handy.

Lastly, Brendan Steele had this to say about the difficulty of the greens, “Definitely on the greens. You have to be careful where you leave it. They’re quick and got a lot of slope. A few have tons of slope. Nos. 3, 4, 8, these holes, like if you get on the wrong side you’ve got no chance.” This basically adds to the notion that we have a second-shot course. Getting out of position tee-to-green can snowball and make it that much tougher on the greens.

Looking at course and tournament setup I found the following tournaments to be highly correlated: Northern Trust Open (now the Genesis Open), Farmers Insurance Open, and the Puerto Rico Open. If we’re making a top 5 of correlated events I would squeeze in Pebble Beach Pro-Am and WM Phoenix Open but I’m really going to focus on the first three myself.

Head over to the Fantasy Golfanac for more player quotes and tournament statistics.

Players to Watch

Phil Mickelson… Will be flying high after the huge Ryder Cup victory and we know he’s no stranger to success in the Golden State. In fact, 8 of his last 25 wins on the PGA TOUR have come in Cali (Overall, 11-of-42 wins have come in California). He played well enough to win multiple events last season but walked away empty-handed. Might as well add a trophy before the calendar strikes 2017.

Emiliano Grillo… The defending champ and likely Rookie of the Year. He’s not the best putter traditionally, but he’s found much more success on poa and bentgrass surfaces like he’ll face this week. Usually I don’t like taking the defending champions but Grillo has such a laid-back personality that I don’t think any added media duties will weigh him down in terms of preparation. Should be good to go this week.

Matt Kuchar… Finished T21 here two years ago in his debut, despite a closing 4-over 76. Perhaps he wants to atone for that poor final round… or maybe he just wants to a come drink a bunch of wine and enjoy a nice Napa vacation. A top 10 should be in the cards this week.

Paul Casey… Enters with the best form in the field. I get the feeling from his recent interviews that he’s really dying to pick off his second career PGA TOUR win. I think this is a case of him playing well and wanting to ride it out until he cools off. If he’s doing it in real life, no reason we can’t follow along as gamers.

Adam Hadwin… As I was about to write Hadwin, the power went out. Two hours later I’m left wondering whether it was a good or bad sign for the Canadian this week or just pure coincidence. Obviously, it’s the latter… or is it? Statistically, he lines up perfectly this week. He doesn’t stray far from the fairway, he crushes on bent or poa (anywhere but bermuda), and loves par 72 layouts. Over his last 8 starts in Cali he’s gaining 1.13 strokes per round. His results here are nothing to write home about (T53 and T41) but a top 25 could easily be in the cards.

Keegan Bradley… When the anchored putter ban hit, he was already in the process of trying to move to the short putter. The problem is he was thousands of hours of practice behind in terms of competing against golfers that never had to practice a new method. A few years later and he could finally be ready to catch up. With his wedding less than two months away, his life is in a good spot and his form was starting to show signs of life late in the summer. I really do think we see a rejuvenated Keegan in 2017, and there’s no reason he can’t get started on that comeback season now.

Brian Campbell… Let the love for the Web.com Tour grads begin! Campbell is a youngster out of the University of Illinois but calls California home. Campbell crushed at the start of the 2016 Web season but really faded as the year went on. Diving deeper we can see he was basically the king of missing the cut on or around the number. Despite missing the cut in 7-of-17 starts, he still beat the field average in 14 of his starts. That kind of consistency to hang around at or above the field average generally transitions well to the next stage. One of my favorite sleepers this week.

Xander Schauffele… The opposite of Campbell, the San Diego State product took a while to round into form but he was really cooking as the season winded down. With plenty of ties to California and good form leading up, I do like Schauffele to shine this week.

Cheng Tsung Pan… Doesn’t have the Cali connection but playing golf at Washington, he has plenty of experience on the West Coast. He might also be one of the most polished Web.com Tour graduates this year. Looking at strokes gained over the field, he gained the most last season (127.7) and beat the field average in 19 of 22 starts. He also represented his country in Rio very admirably. Pan doesn’t have the pop off the tee to be a regular contender on the PGA TOUR (in my opinion) but I will definitely try to target him on any course where distance is not as important. I think this week qualifies.

Martin Laird… His love for this track is clear as day if you check any of his quotes over the past two seasons. After a T3 in 2015, he backpedaled last year with a T64. That was due to rounds of 74-76 over the weekend. With not much course history to play on this week, consider Laird a semi-course history pick since he’s flashed the upside and love for the layout.

Jon Rahm… Been a while since we’ve seen him but don’t let him slip past your radar. Continues to be a beast in terms of scoring on DraftKings. #BirdieMachine

Aaron Wise… Could be on the same level as Rahm by year’s end. He just needs to find his way into some more starts. That’s not a problem this week as he earned a sponsor’s exemption. Fire him up.

Collin Morikawa… Should probably be in the category of “don’t get cute” but it’s so tempting. He’s top 25 in the World Amateur Golf Rankings and resides nearby as he kicks off his sophomore season at Cal. The real value here is the Start & Scrubs possibilities he allows for. At $6,100 instead of the bare minimum $6,000 he may be a perfect option in terms of low ownership with boom potential.

Tony Finau… I worry about potential of him testing of new clubs as he starts to look for a replacement for his Nikes. Other than that he’s 2-for-2 here with a T12 and T32 and his scoring is always there, especially when he’s not facing bermuda greens.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Safeway Open

1. Phil Mickelson

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Emiliano Grillo

4. Paul Casey

5. Jon Rahm

6. Harris English

7. Justin Thomas

8. Adam Hadwin

9. Keegan Bradley

10. Kevin Na

11. Brendan Steele

12. Bill Haas

13. Tony Finau

14. Cheng Tsung Pan

15. Jamie Lovemark

16. Brian Campbell

17. Daniel Summerhays

18. Aaron Wise

19. Wesley Bryan

20. Chez Reavie

21. Colt Knost

22. Martin Laird

23. Xander Schauffele

24. Hudson Swafford

25. JT Poston

Alfred Dunhill Links Fantasy Preview

It’s going to take a few weeks to come down from the high of watching last week’s Ryder Cup. In the meantime there is European Tour action going on this week. There are two events, but only one of them is on DraftKings, so let’s have a look at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

Much like the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, there will be celebrities and amateurs competing this week across three different venues, with a cut coming after 54 holes. St. Andrews is the only course that gets played twice, as anyone that makes it past the cut line will play it again on Sunday.

I’ve already mentioned St. Andrews but Carnoustie and Kingsbarns are the other two venues this week. They will all be set up a bit easy this week, catering to the celebrities in the field. All three are par 72 links layouts, so performance on other links tracks is definitely something to look at this week. Whenever links golf is on the docket, that typically means fescue/bent mixtures on the greens.

Since this event is played in October in Scotland, weather is going to get real nippy. I don’t have performance broken out by temperature (yet) but I really do think it would be a great indicator this week, if you have that data. There is a reason why you see a lot of the same names rising to the top of the leaderboard here year-after-year. I think a big part of that is being comfortable playing in blustery conditions.

Anyone that grew up in this climate (England, Ireland, Scotland, etc.) is going to have a big leg up this week.

Players to Watch

Tommy Fleetwood… Sticking to the theme I just laid out with course history and/or climate familiarity, the Englishman fits the bill. He grew up in this kind of weather and has posted four top 15s in five tries here, so he certainly like the pro-am format. With his regained form as of late, Fleetwood is safe to play in all formats.

Martin Kaymer… Playing great before the Ryder Cup disappointment. Should rebound nicely at an event where he’s previously thrived. He finished runner-up in 2008, won in 2010, and finished top 10 as recently as 2013.

Shane Lowry… Might be regretting his decision to defend his title at the Bridgestone instead of getting 2x Ryder Cup points in France. Still, the Ryder Cup is now behind him, so perhaps he’s ready to turn the page and return to form. We know he loves links golf, so this is the perfect week for him to bounce back.

Branden Grace… Been quiet since a T4 at the PGA Championship. A return to European soil should jump-start him this week.

Padraig Harrington… Since 2006, he’s gained 85 strokes over the field here at the Alfred Dunhill Links! In his last 39 rounds here, he’s beat the field average by 2+ strokes in 21 of them while only losing 2+ strokes in 2-of-39 rounds. Course Horse! Of course he did miss the cut here last year and he’s not getting any younger. This is a week I’m willing to take a shot on Paddy, but I won’t be completely shocked if he flops for me.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… This is a great fade opportunity given his season form and likely popularity after a strong showing at the Ryder Cup. However, he’s missed the cut in five of seven starts here with no top 25s since a fourth-place finish in 2009.

Grant Forrest… Finished amateur career 20th in the WAGR and now making his pro debut this week. He’s min-priced on DraftKings, making him a viable plug-in for Stars & Scrubs lineups. Has been playing for San Diego, but originally from Scotland so he should enjoy a nice home game this week.

Ewen Ferguson… The 20-year-old Scot is making his European Tour debut. Really just a salary-saving Stars & Scrubs option. He’s 0-for-2 on the Challenge Tour so far, since turning pro. Perhaps a home game will help him out.

Erik Van Rooyen… Another min-salary option on DraftKings. The Minnesota Gopher struggles to find starts on the European Tour but he’s found top 10s in three of his last five on the Sunshine Tour. With three guaranteed rounds this week, he could be useful if you want to stack your teams at the top.

Graeme McDowell… Had to feel a bit odd for G-Mac to watch the Ryder Cup from the outside looking in. Perhaps it will inspire him into some form, or maybe he’s just ready to pack it in and focus on family and business ventures from here on out. This is a perfect layout for G-Mac to shine so this week will likely say a lot about what McDowell we see in 2017.

Tyrrell Hatton… Really the only golfer with poor course history to crack my top 25. On paper this is a great fit but he’s 0-for-2 here, both outside the top 100. Unlike RCB who has spotty history here in seven starts, I am willing to take a risk on Hatton as he’ll be lower owned, and has the potential to really pop here in Scotland.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

1. Martin Kaymer

2. Shane Lowry

3. Tommy Fleetwood

4. Alex Noren

5. Bernd Wiesberger

6. Danny Willett

7. Branden Grace

8. Lee Westwood

9. Thomas Pieters

10. Padraig Harrington

11. Soren Kjeldsen

12. Graeme McDowell

13. Gregory Bourdy

14. David Howell

15. Bradley Dredge

16. Ross Fisher

17. Magnus A. Carlsson

18. Louis Oosthuizen

19. Nicolas Colsaerts

20. Richard Bland

21. Joost Luiten

22. Peter Hanson

23. Tyrrell Hatton

24. Paul Dunne

25. Richie Ramsay

Article featured image via http://www.bunkered.co.uk

Porsche European Open Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR returns this week and NFL is in full bloom now, so that means European Tour gets pushed aside again on DraftKings. The GPPs are disappointing in size this week, but somebody will still win a decent chunk of change, so let’s get crackin!

The course this week as the Beckenbauer Course at Golf Resort Bad Griesbach. This event returned from a five-year absence last year and used the same venue. Prior to that, the London Golf Club and K Club were the most recent host tracks.

The Beckenbauer course is a par 71 but it features four par 5s and five par 3s, so it’s not a traditional layout by any means. Last year the field averaged about half a stroke under par, per round. On the easier side of the spectrum but no cakewalk. Two of the par 5s are over 575 making them tough to reach but the other two will be reachable by most of the field, especially the big hitters.

With two of the par 3s stretching out past 200 yards and water on nearly every hole, precision tee-to-green and long-iron play will be crucial to surviving. To add to that, recent flooding will have the course playing soft and long. It would be wise to target golfers that can pulverize it off the tee (or golfers that split every fairway and can avoid the likely wet and lush rough).

Lastly, the course hosted an event on the Challenge Tour from 2013 to 2015 so use that as an extra pointer. Some notables in the field that found top 15s on this course while on the Challenge Tour include: Florian Fritsch, Jeff Winther, Sebastian Gros, Matthew Southgate, Lucas Bjerregard, as well as two others that I will highlight below…

Players to Watch

Bernd Wiesberger… He’s the class of the field along with Kaymer. Bernd has some course knowledge on his side while Kaymer has the German factor in his favor.

Martin Kaymer… The trend in 2016 is for golfers to win their home open, so Kaymer is the natural choice in this field.

Brandon Stone… You back Stone for his steadiness but in a weaker field like this week he brings along plenty of upside as well. Fire away.

Ricardo Gouveia… Really disappointing lately, but I’m going straight back to the well with my main man, Ricky. Gouveia is one of the two golfers I mentioned above with key experience here at Bad Griesbach. He won the 2015 Challenge Tour event which was hosted on the Beckenbauer Course, so he’ll have plenty of good memories this week.

Chris Hanson… Hanson is playing so well in 2016, but he’s also the most experienced in terms of this week’s venue.

He missed the cut here in 2015 but posted a T3 in 2014 and a T21 in 2013. With no practice rounds taking place this week due to flooding, his knowledge of the course should be very useful this week!

Paul Dunne… A boom-or-bust machine. Trot him out with GPPs and hope you get a boom from him. He’s certainly trending back into form.

Maximilian Kieffer… Playing the home country angle, Kieffer is one to target. He’s really struggling to find consistency in 2016 but a home game just might do the trick.

Marcel Schneider… This German will fly in way under the radar, but he possesses some top-25 upside. In 2015 he found top 25s in three of his eight starts on the Euro Tour. This is a super dark horse but the potential is there.

Mikko Korhonen… Finished T12 here last year. He’s generally one of my favorite DFS plays because his good weeks are usually really good. He doesn’t like to make it through the cut and just float around 50th place.

Richard Bland… Can’t close the gate but keeps putting himself in position to strike. Finished T9 here last year.

Zander Lombard… The 21-year-old is still? searching for his first professional win but he’s knocked on the door quite a few times this year. Wouldn’t be suprising to see him pick up his first win here against a weaker field. It would be really surprising if he’s still winless after the Euro Tour travels to South Africa early next season.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Porsche Euro Open

1. Martin Kaymer

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Thongchai Jaidee

4. Richard Bland

5. Thomas Pieters

6. Ricardo Gouveia

7. Ross Fisher

8. Chris Hanson

9. Mikko Korhonen

10. Fabrizio Zanotti

11. Rikard Karlberg

12. Brandon Stone

13. Magnus A. Carlsson

14. David Howell

15. Richard Sterne

16. Maximilian Kieffer

17. David Lipsky

18. Bradley Dredge

19. Benjamin Hebert

20. Tommy Fleetwood

21. Jaco Van Zyl

22. Nicolas Colsaerts

23. Anirban Lahiri

24. Zander Lombard

25. Paul Dunne

TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview

With a week off between the BMW Championship and the upcoming TOUR Championship, we should all feel well-rested headed into the season finale. The golfers received a well-needed week off as well as many were running on fumes as some of them gear up for the Ryder Cup and some of them make their final audition for the final captain’s pick.

Personally, I used the time to move my home base to Minnesota, so I now join the bushels of Minnesotans who write about fantasy golf.

The course this week is East Lake Golf Club, which is a par-70 layout designed by Donald Ross. It stretches out to 7,307 yards which is a bit lengthy for a par 70. That means plenty of drivers will be in use this week, but the rough is quite penal so keeping it straight off the tee is a very nice benefit this week.

Just looking at the previous winners we see guys like Jim Furyk, Henrik Stenson, Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, and others to support the claim of accuracy being quite important.

Since we have a lengthy par-70 layout with hard-to-hit fairways and bermuda greens, I’m looking at events such at the Sony Open, FedEx St. Jude, RSM Classic, Valspar, and the CareerBuilder as potentially correlated events. They all check at least a few boxes in terms of course or tournament setup.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for golfer quotes and tournaments angles.

Players to Watch

Paul Casey… Someone who doesn’t miss the fairways when he’s dialed in and that’s exactly what he is during the FEC Playoffs. He’s a GIR machine so I expect him to be right in the thick of things again this week. He’s the man to beat, in my eyes.

Adam Scott… Also playing out of his mind over the past month. Has to be right there with Casey as far as in-form plays go.

Rory McIlroy… It’s been all or nothing on the greens for Rory over the past few months. Mostly nothing. Par 70s kind of bring McIlroy back to the pack as well since he can’t feast on par 5s. That being said he’s still an elite option any week he tees it up, especially if the putter heats up.

Jason Day… Coming off a WD and can’t find a fairway over the last month. Does not sound like the recipe for success, but Day defines recipes. He’s just whips together short-game magic to erase all his problems. With the rough being so penalizing at East Lake, I still can’t see this going well for him unless he’s figured out his miss off the tee during the off week.

Dustin Johnson… Speaking of form, it would be fitting for DJ to close out his career season with a win at East Lake. I have no doubt that he will swallow at least a few big numbers this week but the rest of his game just might be good enough at the moment to overcome those.

Bubba Watson… Very similar to DJ above, except Bubba has Ryder Cup motivation in his corner instead of great form. Both are wildcards with winning potential but also huge blowup potential.

Emiliano Grillo… A lot less blowup potential than the two above, the Argentine is fighting for the Rookie of the Year. Keeping it in the fairway is a huge part of the battle at East Lake, and Grillo has that part under control. The putter will be the question mark.

Russell Knox… The Scot sounded very determined to make a splash in the Playoffs after his Ryder cup snub. I haven’t liked any of the course setups for him until now, so this might be the week he gives that huge middle finger.

Daniel Berger… One of the top candidates to crack the Ryder Cup team if Bubba doesn’t impress this week. Berger looks like a great fit on paper for East Lake since he crushes par 4s, loves bermuda, and keeps it close to the fairway most of the time.

Matt Kuchar… The Georgia Tech product hasn’t feasted on East Lake yet in his PGA TOUR career, but he should be a great fit as he keeps it in the fairways and has a great short game to save him on the holes he can’t find the greens. Nothing better than T10 in six tries is a bit concerning, but I’m thinking this is the year he finally plays the local knowledge card here at his old stomping grounds.

Roberto Castro…also has the Ga. Tech angle going for him and he still lives in Atlanta so probably even more so. He’s just not as good at golf as Kuchar, so that’s a problem.

Kevin Chappell… The wildcard for the final spot on the Ryder Cup team. I think he’s need a win to pull it off, but his season has been so good, DL3 may be forced to choose him if he hoists the trophy this week. It just so happens that Chappell is a great course fit as he keeps it between the hashes, loves grinding out par 4s (great on par 70s) and elevates his play against strong competition.

My Top 30 for the 2016 TOUR Championship

1. Paul Casey

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Adam Scott

4. Rory McIlroy

5. Dustin Johnson

6. Jason Day

7. Bubba Watson

8. Jordan Spieth

9. Daniel Berger

10. Russell Knox

11. Kevin Chappell

12. Emiliano Grillo

13. Gary Woodland

14. Kevin Na

15. Charl Schwartzel

16. Hideki Matsuyama

17. Phil Mickelson

18. Jason Dufner

19. William McGirt

20. Kevin Kisner

21. Brandt Snedeker

22. Patrick Reed

23. Jhonattan Vegas

24. Ryan Moore

25. Justin Thomas

26. Roberto Castro

27. J.B. Holmes

28. Si Woo Kim

29. Jimmy Walker

30. Sean O’Hair

Italian Open Fantasy Preview

With no PGA TOUR action this week, the European Tour gets our full attention on DraftKings.

The course for this week’s Italian Open is Golf Club Milano, which has been used plenty of times but last year being the only recent stop. That means course history will not be something to look at heavily. It’s also notable that one of the par 5s has been converted to a par 4 this time around, so last year’s “course history” may matter even less. It played almost two strokes under par (per round) last year, so the drop from par 72 to par 71 was probably a necessary one.

The course is described as a tree-lined parkland course with narrow fairways but as we saw last year, I don’t think the trees/rough are all that penalizing. The golfers that played well last year seemed to be GIR machines with a bit of length being a benefit, as well. It didn’t matter whether they were landing in the fairway or not. A good putting week will always play well, but I’d rather focus on the tee-to-green giants and let the putting work itself out.

Update for clarification: I do think accuracy is the preferred route this week but we saw plenty of golfers survive last year without hitting fairways so it’s not the end all, be all. 

Players to Watch

Photo via GolfPunkHQ.com

Francesco Molinari… Playing in his home open, of course he has to be near the top of any power ranking. When he tees it up on the PGA TOUR, he’s seen as a steady option without a lot of birdie upside. However, on the Euro Tour, he’s gaining 1.96 strokes per round over the field, since 2015. To compare that to some PGA TOUR golfers, that’s in the same level as guys like Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth. Obviously, Moli doesn’t possess the birdie power they do, but he’s a legit stud on this side of the pond.

Martin Kaymer… While Kaymer gets the reputation for inconsistency, he manages that a little better in Europe. His upside is obviously through the roof, making him one of the top options this week.

Brandon Stone… Pads his stats in South Africa, but really he looks like a star in the making. He just doesn’t have the huge blowup-rounds that a lot of youngsters struggle with. He will still miss a few cuts here and there but the upside is huge for a golfer priced just $7700 this week.

Ricardo Gouveia… My weekly note that I love Ricky G. He really imploded last time out, but he’s steady long-term, so I will jump back in this week in Italy.

Nino Bertasio… Goes hand-in-hand with Gouveia above. I play them every week on DraftKings, and the price never seems to go up. Keep riding Bertasio, especially this week on home soil.

Paul Dunne… Sticking with the theme of relative youngsters looking to breakout, Dunne looks like he may be back on track, after a rough start to the season. I would feel great getting him back in lineups, especially in GPPs.

Nicolas Colsaerts… The Belgian Bomber is playing great again this season. #MakeBelgiumGreatAgain … He finished top 20 here last year as well. Good scoring potential in the DK format.

Soren Kjeldsen… Much like Molinari, he is a steady option due to his incredible accuracy off the tee. When his flat stick gets rolling is when he really becomes a threat to win. A great option for cash games or GPPs on DK.

Chris Wood… Marriage Swag and Ryder Cup swag… He’s rounding back into form after the neck injury put an end to his great form. Way underpriced on DraftKings this week.

David Lipsky… A third-place finish here last year and his game has been solid over the last few months including two top 10s over his last three starts.

Richard Sterne… Will get zero attention from any PGA TOUR followers that just know him from his terrible 2015 season. Meanwhile, he’s back in great form this season and playing great in Europe. Very easy to fit into lineups at $7600.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Italian Open

1. Martin Kaymer

2. Francesco Molinari

3. Soren Kjeldsen

4. Danny Willett

5. Lee Westwood

6. Matthew Fitzpatrick

7. Brandon Stone

8. Byeong Hun An

9. Rafa Cabrera Bello

10. Nino Bertasio

11. Fabrizio Zanotti

12. Ricardo Gouveia

13. Chris Wood

14. Andy Sullivan

15. Richard Sterne

16. Joost Luiten

17. Bradley Dredge

18. Jaco Van Zyl

19. Tyrrell Hatton

20. David Lipsky

21. Thongchai Jaidee

22. Richard Bland

23. Magnus A. Carlsson

24. Romain Wattel

25. Tyrrell Hatton

KLM Open Fantasy Preview

Last week was somewhat of a disaster for me on the Euro DK front. A lot of my core plays (Gouveia, Korhonen, Hatton, etc) just fell flat while the second-tier value plays all rose to the occasion. One of the few bad weeks we’ve had so far since DK introduced Euro Tour so I’m itchin’ to bounce back.

This week the European Tour heads to The Netherlands for the KLM Open. The course is named appropriately (The Dutch) which is designed by Colin Montgomerie and will be making its debut this week on the Euro Tour.

It’s described as an inland links-style course. It’s a par 71 that’s under 6,900 yards in total length so we have another shorty just like the last few weeks. The greens are bentgrass. We want to target golfers that can keep it between the pipes and deliver the goods via the approach shot.

Players to Watch

Alex Noren… He’s healthy and playing as good as ever. Was featured on the European Race to Dubai podcast this week and his voice showed a bit of excitement when they told him this week was an inland links-style track.

Dean Burmester… He’s yet to disappoint me in Euro Tour DFS so I will keep trotting him out. The short course may not seem like the best fit but he’s beat the field average in all five ET events he’s played with courses under 7,100 yards.

Joost Luiten… He looks like a great fit on paper with his fairways-and-greens style of play. He’s also got the local angle going, so perhaps he’ll have a leg up on the field in that regard. With no course history to go off, he may be the closest we get to Team Course History this week.

Callum Shinkwin… The youngster is building quite the resume this season. The 23-year-old has beat the field stroke average in 10 of 13 starts, and shows no signs of stopping now.

Romain Langasque… The young Frenchman has found top 10s in four of his last six starts. Five of them came on the Challenge Tour but last week’s T7 at the OEM shows that he may be ready for the big stage. Still a wildcard at this point, but an interesting low-end play.

Paul Dunne… Keeping with the theme of youngsters trying to crack the nut for the first time, Dunne is having a somewhat disappointing season in terms of consistency but now he heads to a short links-style layout. Could be exactly what he needs to jump-start his game.

Bernd Wiesberger… Looks to be the class of the field along with Noren and Luiten. Might not be the best course fit on paper, but he makes up for that with raw talent. Should be able to pop out a top 25 with relative ease this week.

Mikko Ilonen… Sneakily rounding into form with five straight top 25s and T25s in six of his last seven. Don’t sleep on the Finn.

My Top 25 for the 2016 KLM Open

1. Alex Noren

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Joost Luiten

4. Dean Burmester

5. Callum Shinkwin

6. Thongchai Jaidee

7. Richard Bland

8. Nino Bertasio

9. Byeong Hun An

10. Thomas Pieters

11. Chris Wood

12. Maximilian Kieffer

13. Chris Hanson

14. Mikko Ilonen

15. Fabrizio Zanotti

16. Magnus A. Carlsson

17. Benjamin Hebert

18. Richie Ramsay

19. David Howell

20. Florian Fritsch

21. Nicolas Colsaerts

22. Brandon Stone

23. Paul Dunne

24. Tommy Fleetwood

25. Mikko Korhonen