Alfred Dunhill Links Fantasy Preview

It’s going to take a few weeks to come down from the high of watching last week’s Ryder Cup. In the meantime there is European Tour action going on this week. There are two events, but only one of them is on DraftKings, so let’s have a look at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

Much like the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, there will be celebrities and amateurs competing this week across three different venues, with a cut coming after 54 holes. St. Andrews is the only course that gets played twice, as anyone that makes it past the cut line will play it again on Sunday.

I’ve already mentioned St. Andrews but Carnoustie and Kingsbarns are the other two venues this week. They will all be set up a bit easy this week, catering to the celebrities in the field. All three are par 72 links layouts, so performance on other links tracks is definitely something to look at this week. Whenever links golf is on the docket, that typically means fescue/bent mixtures on the greens.

Since this event is played in October in Scotland, weather is going to get real nippy. I don’t have performance broken out by temperature (yet) but I really do think it would be a great indicator this week, if you have that data. There is a reason why you see a lot of the same names rising to the top of the leaderboard here year-after-year. I think a big part of that is being comfortable playing in blustery conditions.

Anyone that grew up in this climate (England, Ireland, Scotland, etc.) is going to have a big leg up this week.

Players to Watch

Tommy Fleetwood… Sticking to the theme I just laid out with course history and/or climate familiarity, the Englishman fits the bill. He grew up in this kind of weather and has posted four top 15s in five tries here, so he certainly like the pro-am format. With his regained form as of late, Fleetwood is safe to play in all formats.

Martin Kaymer… Playing great before the Ryder Cup disappointment. Should rebound nicely at an event where he’s previously thrived. He finished runner-up in 2008, won in 2010, and finished top 10 as recently as 2013.

Shane Lowry… Might be regretting his decision to defend his title at the Bridgestone instead of getting 2x Ryder Cup points in France. Still, the Ryder Cup is now behind him, so perhaps he’s ready to turn the page and return to form. We know he loves links golf, so this is the perfect week for him to bounce back.

Branden Grace… Been quiet since a T4 at the PGA Championship. A return to European soil should jump-start him this week.

Padraig Harrington… Since 2006, he’s gained 85 strokes over the field here at the Alfred Dunhill Links! In his last 39 rounds here, he’s beat the field average by 2+ strokes in 21 of them while only losing 2+ strokes in 2-of-39 rounds. Course Horse! Of course he did miss the cut here last year and he’s not getting any younger. This is a week I’m willing to take a shot on Paddy, but I won’t be completely shocked if he flops for me.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… This is a great fade opportunity given his season form and likely popularity after a strong showing at the Ryder Cup. However, he’s missed the cut in five of seven starts here with no top 25s since a fourth-place finish in 2009.

Grant Forrest… Finished amateur career 20th in the WAGR and now making his pro debut this week. He’s min-priced on DraftKings, making him a viable plug-in for Stars & Scrubs lineups. Has been playing for San Diego, but originally from Scotland so he should enjoy a nice home game this week.

Ewen Ferguson… The 20-year-old Scot is making his European Tour debut. Really just a salary-saving Stars & Scrubs option. He’s 0-for-2 on the Challenge Tour so far, since turning pro. Perhaps a home game will help him out.

Erik Van Rooyen… Another min-salary option on DraftKings. The Minnesota Gopher struggles to find starts on the European Tour but he’s found top 10s in three of his last five on the Sunshine Tour. With three guaranteed rounds this week, he could be useful if you want to stack your teams at the top.

Graeme McDowell… Had to feel a bit odd for G-Mac to watch the Ryder Cup from the outside looking in. Perhaps it will inspire him into some form, or maybe he’s just ready to pack it in and focus on family and business ventures from here on out. This is a perfect layout for G-Mac to shine so this week will likely say a lot about what McDowell we see in 2017.

Tyrrell Hatton… Really the only golfer with poor course history to crack my top 25. On paper this is a great fit but he’s 0-for-2 here, both outside the top 100. Unlike RCB who has spotty history here in seven starts, I am willing to take a risk on Hatton as he’ll be lower owned, and has the potential to really pop here in Scotland.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

1. Martin Kaymer

2. Shane Lowry

3. Tommy Fleetwood

4. Alex Noren

5. Bernd Wiesberger

6. Danny Willett

7. Branden Grace

8. Lee Westwood

9. Thomas Pieters

10. Padraig Harrington

11. Soren Kjeldsen

12. Graeme McDowell

13. Gregory Bourdy

14. David Howell

15. Bradley Dredge

16. Ross Fisher

17. Magnus A. Carlsson

18. Louis Oosthuizen

19. Nicolas Colsaerts

20. Richard Bland

21. Joost Luiten

22. Peter Hanson

23. Tyrrell Hatton

24. Paul Dunne

25. Richie Ramsay

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