Safeway Open Fantasy Preview
After the much-anticipated return of the Tiger Woods, we can set our watches for another seven weeks or so as the Big Cat announced he’s not ready to return to action. He still owes the PGA TOUR an appearance at the Safeway Open unless they deem he’s fulfilled his duties through ticket sales alone the few times he’s committed here and then backed out. So maybe we’ll see him in Napa next year!
There is no Tiger but the show will definitely still go on! The event is the Safeway Open, previously the Frys.com Open and it’s held at Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course in Napa, California. Golfers can enjoy a nice glass of pinot off the course but on the course they will be greeted by a par 72 layout with poa annua greens.
The beauty of the course is that it brings the entire field into play. At just 7,203 yards it becomes a second-shot course for the most part with plenty of wedges into greens. Andres Gonzales had this to say in 2014, “You can hit driver, you can hit 3-wood, you can hit whatever you want, but I don’t know if anybody is going to be overpowering the course.”
Adding to that, Martin Laird noted that a high ball flight is certainly advantageous since the tournament officials try to get tricky with some of the pin placements since the course doesn’t have much length and the rough is not too penal. It’s not penal in the sense that you won’t have to be punching out just to survive the hole. It’s still best to stripe the fairways as much as possible, especially with the tricky pin placements we just talked about. Hitting the greens won’t be hard out of the rough, but holding them and getting the proper spin control is where approaching from the fairway comes in handy.
Lastly, Brendan Steele had this to say about the difficulty of the greens, “Definitely on the greens. You have to be careful where you leave it. They’re quick and got a lot of slope. A few have tons of slope. Nos. 3, 4, 8, these holes, like if you get on the wrong side you’ve got no chance.” This basically adds to the notion that we have a second-shot course. Getting out of position tee-to-green can snowball and make it that much tougher on the greens.
Looking at course and tournament setup I found the following tournaments to be highly correlated: Northern Trust Open (now the Genesis Open), Farmers Insurance Open, and the Puerto Rico Open. If we’re making a top 5 of correlated events I would squeeze in Pebble Beach Pro-Am and WM Phoenix Open but I’m really going to focus on the first three myself.
Head over to the Fantasy Golfanac for more player quotes and tournament statistics.
Players to Watch
Phil Mickelson… Will be flying high after the huge Ryder Cup victory and we know he’s no stranger to success in the Golden State. In fact, 8 of his last 25 wins on the PGA TOUR have come in Cali (Overall, 11-of-42 wins have come in California). He played well enough to win multiple events last season but walked away empty-handed. Might as well add a trophy before the calendar strikes 2017.
Emiliano Grillo… The defending champ and likely Rookie of the Year. He’s not the best putter traditionally, but he’s found much more success on poa and bentgrass surfaces like he’ll face this week. Usually I don’t like taking the defending champions but Grillo has such a laid-back personality that I don’t think any added media duties will weigh him down in terms of preparation. Should be good to go this week.
Matt Kuchar… Finished T21 here two years ago in his debut, despite a closing 4-over 76. Perhaps he wants to atone for that poor final round… or maybe he just wants to a come drink a bunch of wine and enjoy a nice Napa vacation. A top 10 should be in the cards this week.
Paul Casey… Enters with the best form in the field. I get the feeling from his recent interviews that he’s really dying to pick off his second career PGA TOUR win. I think this is a case of him playing well and wanting to ride it out until he cools off. If he’s doing it in real life, no reason we can’t follow along as gamers.
Adam Hadwin… As I was about to write Hadwin, the power went out. Two hours later I’m left wondering whether it was a good or bad sign for the Canadian this week or just pure coincidence. Obviously, it’s the latter… or is it? Statistically, he lines up perfectly this week. He doesn’t stray far from the fairway, he crushes on bent or poa (anywhere but bermuda), and loves par 72 layouts. Over his last 8 starts in Cali he’s gaining 1.13 strokes per round. His results here are nothing to write home about (T53 and T41) but a top 25 could easily be in the cards.
Keegan Bradley… When the anchored putter ban hit, he was already in the process of trying to move to the short putter. The problem is he was thousands of hours of practice behind in terms of competing against golfers that never had to practice a new method. A few years later and he could finally be ready to catch up. With his wedding less than two months away, his life is in a good spot and his form was starting to show signs of life late in the summer. I really do think we see a rejuvenated Keegan in 2017, and there’s no reason he can’t get started on that comeback season now.
Brian Campbell… Let the love for the Web.com Tour grads begin! Campbell is a youngster out of the University of Illinois but calls California home. Campbell crushed at the start of the 2016 Web season but really faded as the year went on. Diving deeper we can see he was basically the king of missing the cut on or around the number. Despite missing the cut in 7-of-17 starts, he still beat the field average in 14 of his starts. That kind of consistency to hang around at or above the field average generally transitions well to the next stage. One of my favorite sleepers this week.
Xander Schauffele… The opposite of Campbell, the San Diego State product took a while to round into form but he was really cooking as the season winded down. With plenty of ties to California and good form leading up, I do like Schauffele to shine this week.
Cheng Tsung Pan… Doesn’t have the Cali connection but playing golf at Washington, he has plenty of experience on the West Coast. He might also be one of the most polished Web.com Tour graduates this year. Looking at strokes gained over the field, he gained the most last season (127.7) and beat the field average in 19 of 22 starts. He also represented his country in Rio very admirably. Pan doesn’t have the pop off the tee to be a regular contender on the PGA TOUR (in my opinion) but I will definitely try to target him on any course where distance is not as important. I think this week qualifies.
Martin Laird… His love for this track is clear as day if you check any of his quotes over the past two seasons. After a T3 in 2015, he backpedaled last year with a T64. That was due to rounds of 74-76 over the weekend. With not much course history to play on this week, consider Laird a semi-course history pick since he’s flashed the upside and love for the layout.
Jon Rahm… Been a while since we’ve seen him but don’t let him slip past your radar. Continues to be a beast in terms of scoring on DraftKings. #BirdieMachine
Aaron Wise… Could be on the same level as Rahm by year’s end. He just needs to find his way into some more starts. That’s not a problem this week as he earned a sponsor’s exemption. Fire him up.
Collin Morikawa… Should probably be in the category of “don’t get cute” but it’s so tempting. He’s top 25 in the World Amateur Golf Rankings and resides nearby as he kicks off his sophomore season at Cal. The real value here is the Start & Scrubs possibilities he allows for. At $6,100 instead of the bare minimum $6,000 he may be a perfect option in terms of low ownership with boom potential.
Tony Finau… I worry about potential of him testing of new clubs as he starts to look for a replacement for his Nikes. Other than that he’s 2-for-2 here with a T12 and T32 and his scoring is always there, especially when he’s not facing bermuda greens.
My Top 25 for the 2016 Safeway Open
1. Phil Mickelson
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Emiliano Grillo
4. Paul Casey
5. Jon Rahm
6. Harris English
7. Justin Thomas
8. Adam Hadwin
9. Keegan Bradley
10. Kevin Na
11. Brendan Steele
12. Bill Haas
13. Tony Finau
14. Cheng Tsung Pan
15. Jamie Lovemark
16. Brian Campbell
17. Daniel Summerhays
18. Aaron Wise
19. Wesley Bryan
20. Chez Reavie
21. Colt Knost
22. Martin Laird
23. Xander Schauffele
24. Hudson Swafford
25. JT Poston
