Josh Culp's Blog, page 28

The Masters Fantasy Preview

Welcome to the annual week of trends. For whatever reason, the Masters always brings out all of the “trends needed to win” narratives. Some of these trends are great, but most of them are just fluff. I used to be guilty of doing the same thing, trying to narrow down my winner based on random coincidences. Before you put any stock into a trend this week, make sure you try to play devil’s advocate and debunk the trend.

One of the biggest trends is the no first-time winners since Fuzzy Zoeller. It’s important to remember that many of the best and brightest stars play this event their first time as an amateur. That’s one part of the no first-timer equation. Then you can think about all the occasions when first-timers finished right outside the winner’s circle. You don’t have to go back far; just two years ago both Spieth and Blixt finished T2 here their first time around. Augusta National is definitely a track with a steep learning curve, and most golfers should be downgraded in their debut, but we can’t treat all first-timers the same.

That brings up my next point about trends. Most of them are focused solely on finding the winner. When we’re playing fantasy golf, often all we need is a top 20. I would be much more inclined to listen to a trend that narrows down the list of potential top 10s or top 25s as opposed to overfitting a trend to cater just to past winners and eliminate a lot of good contenders in the process.

Enough about the trends, lets talk turkey. The course this week needs no introduction, it’s Augusta National Golf Club. It’s a par 72 that stretches out past 7,400 yards. The rough is almost non-existent, allowing distance and great iron play to persevere. That turns into great wedge play if you’re long enough off the tee. Distance is not required, but it certainly helps. It’s a course where having a knowledgeable caddie can pay huge dividends. Knowing where to miss is half the battle. Executing the shots is the rest of the equation.

Take a look at the The Masters Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Adam Scott… The Aussie was the hottest golfer in the planet just three weeks ago. Now he’s almost coming in under the radar after some golfers stole some spotlight at the Match Play event as well as Houston. Scott has gained the most strokes over the field over the last 10 weeks of PGA TOUR action and he’s gained the second most strokes at Augusta National since 2010. Getting Stevie back on the bag this week sounds really weird at first considering how well he’s playing. Thinking about it further though, and Stevie’s knowledge of Augusta could prove crucial by week’s end.

Phil Mickelson… Lefty is right behind Scott in both metrics I listed (Strokes Gained over Last 10 Weeks and Course History since 2010). He’s almost as good as it gets this week as a course horse in great form. Phil might not have many more years with a legit chance at winning this event. I expect him to make the most of it and blast into the top 5 this week, potentially the winner’s circle. There’s no way he can find as many water balls as last week, right?

Jordan Spieth… Speaking of water balls, The Texas Longhorn has eight last week in route to a top 15 at the Shell Houston Open. A case of “what could have been” I suppose. His form is un-Spiethlike but his course history at Augusta National speaks for itself.

Rory McIlroy… I’m able to forgive poor form in the case of Spieth but Rory is out of form and his course history is subpar, by his standards. His last two trips are trending in the right direction, so that’s a plus. However, since 2010 he’s lost two or more strokes to the field in SIX of his 22 rounds at AGNC. There are only six golfers with more “bust” rounds in that time (Weir, Woosnam, Vijay, Immelman, T. Watson, and Sandy Lyle). He sports some really good rounds here as well, but he can’t seem to string four straight together without avoiding that blowup round. If I were making just 10 Milly Maker lineups, I think I would own just one Rory.

Justin Rose… In 10 trips to ANGC, his worst finish is a T39. He’s a machine who grinds his way to field average even when he doesn’t have his best stuff. That’s key around Augusta National, because it can swallow you whole really quickly if you let a few three-putts get in your head. I like his mental fortitude this week, and could easily see him on the podium come Sunday.

Rickie Fowler… Fowler is in that danger zone of major championship experience. If he doesn’t win one soon, he’ll get that label as someone who can’t finish the big one. The Masters is as good of venue as any for him, and he’s playing some of the best golf of his career. I like his chances to land inside the top 10 come Sunday.

Jason Day… If we take out his Match Play performance, his form looks rather human-esque. Over his last 14 rounds of stroke-play, he’s gained 26.730 strokes over the field. In that same stretch, Adam Scott has gained 51.850 strokes in 16 rounds, for comparisons sake. That’s more than 25 fewer strokes gained, yet the media seems to already be crowning Day and getting the green jacket fitted to his measurements. He’s certainly in the top-tier of golfers this week, but I say “not so fast” when it comes to crowning him prematurely.

Bernd Wiesberger… He came through for us last week as his usual downfall (putting) was actually a bright spot in Houston. Even with a good week of putting, he didn’t finish inside the top 10 though. He grades out well again this week and I think another top 30 is in the cards, maybe not much more than that, though.

Patrick Reed… Is playing incredible despite not putting up to his standards. Claimed to have found something with his putting stroke on Sunday at the Golf Club of Houston. He did go bogey-free and gained 1.433 strokes with the putter on Sunday. If he can sink some putts, he’s got a great chance to slip on that green jacket by week’s end.

Matt Kuchar… Top 10s in three of his last four visits here. He’s proven that distance off the tee isn’t all it takes to succeed at Augusta National. Should be a staple of cash games on DraftKings this week at the measly price of $7,800.

Justin Thomas… He’s making his debut but he did get a trial run with the Masters legend himself, Jeff Knox. It’s hard to trust his first week at Augusta but his ability to rack of birdies and eagles makes him a great DFS sleeper.

Ian Poulter… At the beginning of this article I said to ignore trends, but one thing I noticed is that 91 of the 114 golfers that have finished inside the top 20 here over the past five years had all gained strokes over the field in the 10 weeks of PGA TOUR action leading up to the event. Basically, it’s really hard to flip the switch to go from terrible play to contending against the best in the world. It’s best to avoid these golfers entirely, and not mess with poor form or lack of play. There will be two or three each year that turn the trick but I don’t want to take that chance personally. Poulter fits that mold as well as guys like Lee Westwood, David Lingmerth, Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Kisner, Hunter Mahan, Anirban Lahiri, Byeong-Hun An, Martin Kaymer, Soren Kjeldsen, and Kevin Na.

Smylie Kaufman… The rookie is really turning heads as he ranks ninth in the FedExCup standings. The downside with Smylie is his lack of experience in strong fields. He missed the cut in his lone major start (2014 U.S. Open) and will be making his first appearance at Augusta National. On the bright side he finished top 10 at Doral, which is basically a mini-major. Based on his price on DK, he’s worth a strong look, but no need to reach for him in non-salary cap formats.

Bryson DeChambeau… This kid looks poised to be a star at the PGA TOUR level. Early on, he’s grading out with too much mediocrity though. He’s not posting any terrible rounds, but he’s not blowing the field away in any rounds either. The lack of bad rounds is a very good thing for someone his age, though. He will be one of the few first-timers I will have a few shares of.

The Masters Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Masters

1. Adam Scott

2. Justin Rose

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Bubba Watson

5. Rickie Fowler

6. Jason Day

7. Phil Mickelson

8. Rory McIlroy

9. Matt Kuchar

10. Brooks Koepka

11. Patrick Reed

12. Dustin Johnson

13. Brandt Snedeker

14. Henrik Stenson

15. Louis Oosthuizen

16. Hideki Matsuyama

17. Sergio Garcia

18. Branden Grace

19. Jimmy Walker

20. Danny Willett

21. Charl Schwartzel

22. Bill Haas

23. Paul Casey

24. Zach Johnson

25. Marc Leishman

Shell Houston Open Fantasy Preview

The best thing the PGA TOUR has done this year is swapping the Puerto Rico Open to the week of Match Play. Rather than watching my bracket crumble (inevitably), I was able to sweat the PRO where Tony Finau walked away with his maiden win. What a treat.

Now ShotLink packs up their gear from Austin Country Club and takes a short journey to Humble, Texas. The course is Golf Club of Houston, a par 72 that stretches out to 7,441 yards. The venue does their best to replicate the conditions at next week’s mammoth event. The MASTERS!

They overseed the greens with bentgrass, mow the fairways toward the players, try to speed up the greens, and shave the runoff areas around the greens. It’s also a right-to-left golf course where draws are rewarded for righties. Much like Augusta, errant drives are not too penal, which puts a premium on distance.

Wind is almost always a factor here. Scott Piercy put it best when he said, “The wind here is so heavy since we’re at sea level. If it’s blowing 10 miles an hour, it plays probably close to 20 yards worth of, you know, of distance, where when you get downwind, if you have 10 miles into the wind downwind, it’s probably about 5 miles or 5 yards difference.” There will almost guaranteed be one very windy day, but keep an eye out on the forecast in case that increases.

Take a look at the Shell Houston Open Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Phil Mickelson… GC of Houston pride themselves on setting this course up like Augusta National. It’s no wonder Phil the Thrill excels here. He won in 2011 and has rattled of top 20s in the four trips since then. Also in great form. You know what to do, fire him up!

J.B. Holmes… His history at the GC of Houston isn’t QUITE as good as Mickelsons, but its right up there. Other than his victory last year, he also sports three finishes inside the top 15s. Thats four top 15s in six tries. When asked what he likes about the course he responded with, “You know, it’s a good preview for the Masters. They don’t have as much rough around here. Few holes you can get loose with the driver and it benefits you to hit it farther at this golf course because the wind can get up and it can get difficult.” Hey Mikey, he likes it!

Louis Oosthuizen… In six visits here, he’s missed the cut in three but finishe dtop 20 in the other three. It’s a coin flip, but one half of the coin is worth the risk. If you want a reason to fade, you could cite his frequent back injuries as a WD risk and/or the fact he just played a lot of matches in a short time period last week at the Dell Match Play. I would label him a great GPP play, though.

Vaughn Taylor… Unlike Louis, probably not the best GPP play, but a great cash play on DraftKings. He’s only $5,700 but four top 30s in his last six starts here at GC of Houston suggests he could easily pay off that tag.

Shawn Stefani… Now we’re back in GPP territory. It would be risky business going back to the well on Stefani. He’s missed the cut in five of his last six starts, including a near-dead-last result at last week’s alternate event Puerto Rico Open. Why would I even mention him then? Well, he lives in Houston and says this about the course, “I played a lot of golf here. In my off-season I come out here and practice a lot and get a lot of work done.” Could be a great venue to get back on track. A few other notables with local knowledge or playing close to home include K.J. Choi, Johnson Wagner, Jordan Spieth, Hunter Mahan, Chad Campbell, Ryan Palmer, and Patrick Reed.

Lee Westwood… Another golfer with a great track record here as well as Augusta National. I’m not comfortable investing in Westwood this week given how scarce he’s made himself this year. Last week was just his third start of 2016, worldwide. His track record here suggests he could really pop this week, but I’m not buying it just yet.

Bernd Wiesberger… Unlike Westy, the Austrian has been active in 2016. This will be his eight start of the calendar year with three top 20s thus far. In his limited PGA TOUR data, we’ve seen him perform better on par 72 course, long courses, and bentgrass greens. We have all three on hand this week. Yahtzee!

Patrick Reed… If the wind picks up then Patty should rise to the top. His local knowledge will only help, and sleeping in your own bed is rarely a bad thing. Arrows up this week.

Rickie Fowler… Sure he’s made some big strides over the past year but his course history here is pretty poor. He’s lost two or more strokes to the field in five of his 16 rounds at GC of Houston. He does have a sixth-place finish squeezed into his course history, but I don’t want to pay up for a Fowler and hope he can repeat that. He’s going to be a fade for me.

Russell Henley… The opposite of Rickie…Has beat the field average by two or more strokes in seven of his 12 rounds at this course. That’s the recipe for a slumpbuster!

Shell Houston Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet for FREE! Yup, the cheatsheet will be made available for free this week, so come check that out this week! It will go live mid-to-late Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Shell Houston Open

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Phil Mickelson

3. Henrik Stenson

4. Sergio Garcia

5. Dustin Johnson

6. Charl Schwartzel

7. Louis Oosthuizen

8. Brooks Koepka

9. Patrick Reed

10. Charles Howell III

11. Bernd Wiesberger

12. Charley Hoffman

13. Graham DeLaet

14. J.B. Holmes

15. Gary Woodland

16. Steve Stricker

17. Tony Finau

18. Rickie Fowler

19. Patton Kizzire

20. Ryan Palmer

21. Keegan Bradley

22. Hunter Mahan

23. Cameron Tringale

24. Russell Henley

25. Shawn Stefani

Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Preview

Thanks to a tweak in the scheduling the Puerto Rico Open gets a few more words than usual this week.

In past years, I’ve glossed over this event, only providing a top 10 for One-and-Done gamers, but this year is different. With the top 66 (68) golfers in the World going head-to-head at the WGC-Dell Match Play, the Puerto Rico Open at Coco Beach grabs some attention as DraftKings does not offer contests for Match Play events.

Let’s get up to speed. The course is Coco Beach Golf and Country Club, previously known at Trump International. I think I played this course in Mario Kart! Same course, new name. It’s a par 72 track that stretches out past 7,500 yards. It’s not exactly a bomber’s paradise though. It’s pretty similar to last week’s API where the par 3s are long, the par 5s are really long and the par 4s offer a good mix of short and long holes.

In calm conditions, this is a course these pros will rip apart. In 2013, there were 53 eagles here, the 2nd-most of any event that season. On the flip side, there were only 21 last year. The only difference was the wind. It will almost always play a factor here in Puerto Rico, but last year was especially troublesome. Keep an eye on the weather forecast.

This should be another week where we take a look at long-iron approach. Of course, with a weak field like this one, we can’t ignore pure talent level.

Take a look at the Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Graham DeLaet… He’s the class of the field, in my opinion. He’s registered top 10s in 25 of his 137 starts on TOUR. He’s done everything but win, and that means a certain population of gamers will completely avoid him because they label him a choke-artist. I’m not buying that label. He sports top 25s in all three attempts in Puerto Rico, which makes him even juicier. He also nearly won his last start, so the trends are all converging. Fire him up in all formats as he’s the man to beat.

Jerry Kelly… While GDL could be the man to beat, Jerry Kelly is probably the man that will beat 80 percent of the field, but has very little chance of taking home the hardware. That doesn’t take away from his fantasy value. Five top 25s in seven starts here. Which explains a lot about the type of golfer that can/will succeed here.

Tony Finau… He’s the exact opposite of Kelly, but his talent level is a tier above most of the field here. Most of the course horses here at Coco Beach G&CC are golfers that finish inside the top 50 annualy in Distance from Edge of Fairway. ACCURATE hitters. At the same time, Finau has all the tools to score on the longer holes this week. That makes him very fantasy revelant. I was skeptical at first, but I’ve taken the plunge after seeing his great (but limited) performance on Seashore Paspalum greens. He finished seventh at the 2015 Mayakoba and ninth at the 2016 CIMB.

Luke Donald… The Englishman fits the course profile a bit better, but he’s taken a big step down from the days when he was the World No. 1 golfer. Luckily he doesn’t hit it far enough to get in too much trouble, and his scrambling abilities always keep him in the mix. Should have no troubles finding a paycheck here in his debut.

Gregory Bourdy… He’s well-seasoned on the Euro Tour, but he’s making his Puerto Rico Open debut. Since the start of last season he’s gaining 0.97 strokes over the field in Euro events. That is very comparable to Coetzee’s 1.07, but Bourdy is $3,000 cheaper this week. Value.

Dean Burmester… The opposite of value here. Burmester has owned the South African circuit, but he’s priced accordingly. For someone with his lack of PGA TOUR experience, we would really want him to be sub-$7K. That puts a GPP-only stamp on him, but he does possess high upside and will have low ownership.

Fabrizio Zanotti… Doesn’t have the talent level as other Euro Tour’ers like Bourdy or Coetzee but he is a little closer to home. The Paraguayan missed the cut in his 2011 debut but finished T27 last year. I could see him adding another top 30 this year. An interesting GPP option.

Hao Tong Li… Another interesting GPP option. He gets a little more hype than he deserves, but he does have upside. In 88 rounds on the Web.com Tour, he’s gained 3.95 strokes over the field. That is TOTAL strokes gained. He’s basically an average Web.com golfer, but this is also a Web.com-like field. That means a cut made is more than 50-50 in his favor, and he could climb a little higher if he brings his best stuff.

Seung-Yul Noh… He doesn’t mind long, easy tracks. Evidenced by his success at the Zurich. He’s also posted top 40s in both visits here. To add a little fuel to the sleeper fire, he won the 2010 Malaysian Open, played on another course with Seashore Paspalum green surfaces.

Chris Stroud… Speaking of Paspalum, this guy owns on seashore paspalum. Over his last 28 rounds on the surface, he’s lost more than 2 strokes to the field in only one round. He’s known for great scrambling, so he must like the stickiness it provides, allowing him to be aggressive on his up-and-down attempts.

Brendon de Jonge… Another guy with great success here, but way out of form. He’s finished top 15 in four of five tries here. We should see a nice rebound from BdJ this week.

Adam Svensson… IF you want to go a little off the board, Svensson may be your guy. He’s got a similar Web.com profile as someone like Bronson Burgoon and we’ve seen how well that’s translated for the Goon. Sven should be very low owned.

Ian Poulter… He really wants to be at the WGC-Dell Match Play, so that puts me off his scent. As the first alternate at the WGC, he’s taking a later plane to Puerto Rico which means little or no prep time. For someone that is so out of form like he is, that’s not what I want to hear. Of course, he’s a notch above a majority of the field, in terms of talent. But there is too much WD and/or not-givin-a-hoot risk for my liking.

Puerto Rico Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet for FREE! Yup, the cheatsheet will be made available for free this week, so come check that out this week! It will go live mid-to-late Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Puerto Rico Open

1. Graham DeLaet

2. Jerry Kelly

3. Tony Finau

4. Scott Brown

5. Freddie Jacobson

6. William McGirt

7. Brendon de Jonge

8. Luke Donald

9. David Toms

10. Patrick Rodgers

11. George Coetzee

12. George McNeill

13. Hiroshi Iwata

14. Bronson Burgoon

15. Gregory Bourdy

16. Dean Burmester

17. Chris Stroud

18. Retief Goosen

19. Bronson Burgoon

20. Bryce Molder

21. Will MacKenzie

22. Alex Cejka

23. Fabrizio Zanotti

24. Adam Svensson

25. Dawie van der Walt

Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Golf Happy Hour Podcast

With Joel traveling this week, I break down the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving a few of my favorite DraftKings options and dive into some of the European Tour golfers in the field this week.

If you like what we’re spittin’ out week-to-week then come show your support and potentially win cool stuff by heading over to Patreon.com and becoming a patron today!

The Fantasy Golf Millionaire is open for the first major for the season. Take a shot at turning $20 into $1 Million over on DraftKings.com!

There are whispers of fantasy golf joining the stable over at FanDuel.com, pop on over and start winning today!

Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview

Welcome back, folks! After a great week at the Valspar, it’s time to hop over to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Last week we mentioned the new green surfaces at Copperhead and boy were they running slow! Many golfers struggled to adjust. Even over the weekend, golfer’s were still struggling to hit their putts hard enough. Any golfers that teed it up last week may be at an advantage as this week’s course also sports new TifEagle bermudagrass greens.

Last year was really an anomaly for Bay Hill, so course history buffs should put less emphasis on 2015. The greens were worm-damaged and their was no way for the turf crew to get them rolling to the speeds these TOUR pros are used to. Approach shots were landing softly and putts weren’t rolling eight feet by, like past editions. Bay Hill is usually one of the hardest non-major venues on TOUR, and I expect it to return to his usual toughness this year.

New greens usually lead to bouncy green surfaces which means low GIR percentages. We saw the Doral field average 57.6 percent the first year after they renovated the greens. Last week in Palm Harbor we saw a 55.3 GIR percent from the field. That is LOWWWW. That gives an advantage to great scramblers.

Head over to the API Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course and tournament history as well.

Players to Watch

Henrik Stenson… Another steady week for Stenson. Anyone that knocks the Swede for not being in contention last week, they shouldn’t. That is exactly why you take Stenson, because he always hangs around and bags a top 30, whether he has his best stuff or not. Now we head to a home game for Stenson, which means fire him up again and use him in OAD if you haven’t burned him yet.

Graeme McDowell… Also a home game for G-Mac. The legnth of Bay Hill is not ideal for G-Mac but his local knowledge sorta offsets that. It makes him a boom-or-bust option as his course history shows (three top 10s but also three MCs in eight starts).

Rory McIlroy… This is a less-than-driver course, but it’s also a venue that requires great long-iron-play. Rory will gain plenty of strokes from outside 200 yards this week to offset the holes that require him to club down off the tee. A T11 in his debut last year and I’m expecting at least a repeat this week.

Jason Day… Will fly in under the radar this week due to poor relative form and poor course history. The Aussie can win anywhere when he has a good week. That makes him a great GPP play this week.

Zach Johnson… Talk about under-the-radar. ZJ is still searching for his lost form. You can blame it on his switch to PXG, but when it comes around, the winning upside is always there. He’s not that far off, but missed cuts will lead the field to other options. Another good GPP play.

Matt Every… The Florida Gator is the two-time defending champ here. Don’t get carried away though. He doesn’t really have the long-iron game to consistently perform well here. He gained 6.446 strokes:putting on his way to victory in 2014 and last year we saw easier-to-hit fairways and greens which made it easier for guys that normally lack the ability to land greens consistently from 200 yards out. With the new greens installed since last year, he will need another 6+ SGP week if he wants a three-peat. Very, very unlikely.

Paul Casey… Speaking of the fresh greens, if they really are tough-to-hit like many new greens are, then Casey could really benefit. His track record here is spotty to say the leasy but he had this to say about the course in 2014, “I’ve always loved tough golf courses. And this is one of those. It’s set up absolutely perfectly. Although it is very, very difficult, it does allow you to shoot some numbers, as we saw today.” Got to like that confidence despite the poor success here in the past.

Byeung-Hun An… Benny was a mess at Doral, swallowing too many big numbers to survive with a strong finish. Most of his mistakes came down to a few holes where he managed triple bogeys. With less water in play at Bay Hill, An could perform like many (including me) expected him to at Doral. It doesn’t hurt that he’s played here in AJGA events as well. In the 2008 Boys Jr Championship, he was in 4th place entering the final round before ballooning to 81 in his last navigation. He finished 35th the year before. Almost exactly what Morgan Hoffmann finished in 2007, and we’ve seen how well he’s taken to this event thus far.

Thomas Pieters… I’ve heard rumblings for Maverick McNealy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Ryan Ruffels already, but none for Pieters. This young gun could be the low-owned diamond in the rough by week’s end. He finished in third place last week at the True Thailand Classic, so potential jetlag is certainly an issue.

Francesco Molinari… He’s been hovering around field average way too much for someone of his talents. Returning to a favorable venue this week (3-for-3 with two top 20s), this is the perfect site to get back into the top 25. He’s a steal over on DraftKings, so don’t overlook him.

Jason Kokrak… After a missed cut in his 2012 debut, he’s returned with a 4th-place finish in 2014 and T6 last year. Safe to say he likes the way Bay Hill sets up. The only thing holding him back has been fourth-round mediocrity. He’s never the safest play, but he is still on the short list of golfers ready to grab their first PGA TOUR title.

Hideki Matsuyama… Love this layout for Matsu-robot. One of the best long-iron players in the game. Bingo.

API Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet for FREE! Yup, the cheatsheet will be made available for free this week, so come check that out this week! It will go live mid-to-late Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Henrik Stenson

3. Adam Scott

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Hideki Matsuyama

6. Jason Day

7. Justin Rose

8. Francesco Molinari

9. Charles Howell III

10. Paul Casey

11. Matt Jones

12. Gary Woodland

13. Jason Kokrak

14. George McNeill

15. Zach Johnson

16. Ryan Moore

17. Smylie Kaufman

18. Brandt Snedeker

19. Byeong-Hun An

20. Marc Leishman

21. Ian Poulter

22. Kevin Kisner

23. Will Wilcox

24. Graeme Mcdowell

25. Brendan Steele

Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview

Close but no cigar for Rory last week! Gil Hanse made Doral great again, but Rory is still searching for that lost greatness early in the season. Now let’s talk about this week’s venue.

Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is the definition of a classical layout. It’s a par 71 track (4 par 5s though) that stretches out at about 7,340 yards. With 2,330 of those yards coming at the par 5s, the remaining holes average just 358 yards. The defense of the golf course comes in it’s layout and the wind. Multiple dog-legs and trees-lined fairways force golfers to think twice about pulling the driver out of the bag.

That means positioning off the tee is more important than distance this week. We should also note the restoration done to the course since last year’s edition. The image above is the 14th green as recent as last June. They’ve relaid all the greens, replacing overseeded Bermuda with some fresh TifEagle Bermuda. We’ve seen in the past that sometimes new greens take a year or two to get broken in. That could mean tough-to-hit, firm greens this week, putting an emphasis on scrambling.

It also shakes up some course history stats. You may want to go back and flag any course horses that previously gained a fair amount of strokes with the putter here. They may not replicate that success on the new green surfaces. You can view this video for some additional information about the restoration project.

Head over to the Valspar Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course and tournament history as well.

Players to Watch

Henrik Stenson… On a “down” week he still finished T28 at Doral. The guy is a staple in the top 25, regardless of the field depth. This week, it’s not so deep, and the course sets up perfectly for the Swede. He doesn’t rely on distance off the tee, but he has plenty of power which will be showcased with his long irons. Very pivotal around Copperhead. It’s also worth noting that Stenson cited the ease of scrambling around these greens. Good to see that kind of confidence with the grass surfaces. As an Orlando resident, it was shocking that he waited so long to play this event (last year’s 4th place was his debut). I don’t see why he can’t repeat that effort this week.

Graeme McDowell… Another Orlando man, it’s equally as shocking that G-Mac is playing this event for the first time. Of course, scheduling is always an issue, but McDowell fits the mold of this course to a tee. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him duplicate the performance that Stenson had in his debut (top 5). At the same time, it’s not always easy to figure out a course your first time around.

Jordan Spieth… As the defending champ, this would be a good time for him to get his motor started back up. Spieth is not exactly slouching, but he’s still considered to be in a slump by the incredibly high standards he set for himself last year. On a course that requires precision with the mid-to-long irons and/or putting, Spieth immediately jumps to the top.

Gary Woodland… Just like Spieth, his Under Armour teammate is also a past winner here. He doesn’t mind clubbing down one bit, and is solid in the approach game. I think the difference between a top 30 and contention this week will come down to the flat stick.

Ryan Palmer… A last-minute addition to his schedule. That lets us know that he’s playing for something. As World No. 67 currently, he’s on the border of the Dell Match Play event that takes place in a few weeks. What I really think his goal is though would be the top 50. Palmer has four weeks to crack the top 50 to earn a spot in the Masters. It helps that he’s great on bermuda and won’t mind if the wind picks up.

Will Wilcox… The Wave God has gained 2 or more strokes over the field in 15-of-51 rounds on Less-than-Driver courses. That’s 30%, which is not the best but it’s certainly very good. Considering his price and ability to rack up birdies quickly, I really hope Wilcox gives up the go ahead to send via Twitter.

Cameron Smith… The Aussie is another guy that could benefit from a less-than-driver venue like this. Sure, he contending at Chambers Bay, one of the longest layouts ever, but that took his A++++ game. In reality he averages just 287 yards off the tee, ranking 147th on TOUR. His only top 25 of the season came at Pebble Beach, where the field average driving distance was just 271 yards. [insert Aussie accent] Give em a shot, mate.

Luke Donald… I think it goes without saying, but I’ll say it. When Luke Donald is in the field at Innisbrook, you play him! Four top 10s in his last five starts here, including the 2012 victory. Sure he let us down a few weeks ago as a course horse, but the Englishman doesn’t get too many courses like this each year, so he has to take advantage while he can. Should grab a top 15 this week.

Patrick Reed… We talked about the course restoration that included fresh greens. Who won the Doral the year after they put in new greens? This guy! If the greens are firm and tough to stick, then scrambling will be a key factor, and Reed thrives on that kind of layout. He’s really disappointed a lot of owners over the past few weeks, which should make him a great GPP play on DraftKings.

Harris English… Despite his weekend mediocrity, English continues to rack up the DK scores. Over the past 10 weeks of PGA TOUR play, he’s gained 31.050 strokes over the field in 24 rounds, only Jason Dufner and Freddie Jacobson have more during that stretch. Add in the fact that he won the Southern Am here back in the day, and he should be in for another solid week. Obviously we’re not banking on that finish when he was an amateur, so it’s good to see the comfort has carried over, and he’s racked up two top 10s here in four tries.

Zac Blair… I gotta sneaky suspicion that Blair flies way under the radar this week. He really shouldn’t on a course like Copperhead that doesn’t require distance and demands a good short game.

Matt Every… I tried every tactic I could to remove Every from my final list of targets. I narrowed my list down to 53 golfers this week and Every is one of them. He loves bermuda and loves courses that take driver out of your hand. You could say that his success at the API leads to these stats being inflated. I took out the API victories, and Every is still nearly half a stroke better per round (compared to his typical performance) on both angles. The man remains a WD risk and DFL risk, but he’s also a solid GPP play this week, IMO.

Danny Willett… He’s a world-class player and showed as much last week. Now he’s priced incredibly high on DraftKings, and will be fresh on people’s minds. If Willett would have been priced over $10,000 last week he would have been under 2 percent owned. Now after one good week he may eclipse 10 or 15% at that price. That means he won’t be featured in many of my lineups this week. Decent option in other formats though.

Valspar Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet for FREE! Yup, the cheatsheet will be made available for free this week, so come check that out this week! It will go live mid-to-late Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Valspar Championship

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Henrik Stenson

3. Luke Donald

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Patrick Reed

6. Gary Woodland

7. Kevin Na

8. Bill Haas

9. Webb Simpson

10. Jason Dufner

11. Harris English

12. Graeme Mcdowell

13. Ryan Palmer

14. Danny Willett

15. Cameron Smith

16. Will Wilcox

17. Charl Schwartzel

18. Si Woo Kim

19. Branden Grace

20. Ryan Moore

21. Francesco Molinari

22. Russell Knox

23. Cameron Tringale

24. Kevin Streelman

25. Charles Howell III

WGC-Cadillac Championship Fantasy Golf Happy Hour Podcast

This week Joel and I break down the WGC-Cadillac Championship. Discussing DraftKings plays and strategy then diving into Yahoo! Fantasy Golf picks as well.

If you like what we’re spittin’ out week-to-week then come show your support and potentially win cool stuff by heading over to Patreon.com and becoming a patron today!

Join the fun of playing weekly fantasy golf at DraftKings.com, get in the action now!

There are whispers of fantasy golf joining the stable over at FanDuel.com, pop on over and start winning today!

WGC-Cadillac Championship Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR takes a short trip south toward Miami for this week’s WGC-Cadillac Championship.

The course is Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster Course and it’s a real doooozy. The Donald bought the course a few years back and immediately ripped up the carpet and laid his groundwork. He takes pride in having beautiful looking courses and also tough tests. This fits the criteria for both. The insane amount of water and lush green grass always looks fantastic on TV.

In the process of renovating the course, it was made crazy difficult. They redid the greens which always take a few years to mature. Those might be getting normal (mature) by now. On the other hand, bunkers and water were added in spots that make landing fairways and greens extremely tough, to say the least.

As it often is when fairways are tough to hit, distance trumps accuracy pretty easily. See what I did there? When in doubt, target bombers this week.

Head over to the WGC-Cadillac Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course and tournament history as well.

Players to Watch

Bubba Watson… In the latest case of “Bubba being Bubba” we take a look at some of his quotes about this week’s venue: He said “The golf course, no, I can’t stand the golf course. It’s way too tough for me.” … then we go and look at his results since the 2014 renovation: T2 and 3rd-place finishes. Reminds you a lot of WM Phoenix Open with his comments about TPC Scottsdale, right? Best of lucky to anyone trying to figure this guy out. Regardless of his comments, the course looks like a great fit on paper, and he should be good for another top finish this week.

Rory McIlroy… We talked about how PGA National demanded his A game and it wasn’t a good fit, despite his previous victory. Well, he went on to miss the cut thanks to a few too many blow-up holes. Doral is way more his style. Playing his third straight week, I like the Northern Irishman to find the sweet spot this week and grab a top five, possibly winning. In his last 12 starts on courses over 7,400 yards his worst finish is a 25th-place, has three wins, and another five top 10s in that mix as well. Bombs away!

Justin Rose… Took the week off after back-to-back top 20s (Pebble & NTO). Spent last week in Orlando for his Kate and Justin Rose Foundation. Now he’s got a little rest as he turns his attention to the Blue Monster. He won here in 2012, but that was pre-renovation. His results since the courses changes? T34-55th. I don’t think we see a victory this week, but a very good chance of finishing in the 10th to 25th range.

Branden Grace… His form overseas is remarkable, but we saw last week it doesn’t always translate to the States. He’s got high upside, but his downside is just as low. His SG:Total in PGA TOUR rounds since the start of 2013-14 is 0.434, sandwiched in between Scott Piercy and Danny Lee. Remember that when you’re paying more than $1,000 more for Grace on DraftKings. I think that SGT number will only increase as he plays more, but he’s still not a safe pick this week. GPP only for me.

Emiliano Grillo… He’s not the longest off the tee, but he’s not short either. There were reported changes to the course since last year’s edition. Bunkers were supposedly moved around to make it easier for the golfers that lack Bubba distance. Someone like Grillo could really gain the most from that since he finds fairways and is also longer than average but not really a “bomber”.

Brooks Koepka… The Floridian should really thrive on this bomber’s layout. He finished T17 last year in his debut. That included two doubles and a triple bogey. He’s going to tally up the birdies and potential an eagle if the cards fall his way. That makes him a great DFS play.

Henrik Stenson… Is there anyone more reliable or consistent for a top 25? Didn’t think so.

Nathan Holman… He’s just a young fella (24 years old) and not much experience in this strong fields, so he may get blinded by the superstar talent that surrounds him this week. He’s got the talent, so he’s worth a flyer, but I also wouldn’t put it past him to finish 15-over near the back of the pack.

J.B. Holmes… First we have to give props to J.B. for his insane first round here last year. First, he shot a 62 when the field average was over 73 on the day thanks to 20 mph winds. Now the bad… He gained just 1.603 strokes over the field over the next three rounds. Is his first round repeatable though? Well, he made two putts from outside 25 feet, he made another from just outside 20 feet. He went 3-for-3 from 10-to-15 feet. He was a perfect 12/12 from inside 10 feet. That putting is not repeatable. Overall he gained 3.9984 strokes gained:putting in R1. Over the next three rounds he lost 3.782 strokes. Since the start of 2013-14, he’s lost strokes to the field in 11 of his last 20 starts on bermuda. Not a good ratio. Makes for a great fade candidate since his name will be the hot topic this week due to his incredible distance.

Charl Schwartzel… We just talked about Holmes as a fade candidate and I think Schwartzel is in the same boat. The South African rarely missed cuts but he’s missed the cut in three of his last 10 on bermuda. He’s finished below the field average in two others. That includes this event last year. He sports a great history overall here at Doral, but that might just lead to inflated ownership. I wouldn’t completely avoid Charl, but I wouldn’t highly recommend him, either.

Byeong-Hun An… He’s my go-to Euro Tour star this week. Over in Europe he’s gained strokes over the field in 20 of his 24 events since the start of 2015. Incredible consistency for a rookie. Now he returns home to where he trained as a teenager (just outside Tampa). He’s been in Florida for three weeks now, and I think he comes out this week and takes care of business. He took the advice to go over to Europe instead of finishing college and trying his luck on the Web.com Tour (the Koepka route). A big finish this week would go a long way toward earning his STM, if that is his next goal. #Ben-E-An-Ahhh

WGC-Cadillac Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet for just five bucks. This week’s content will drop on Tuesday afternoon. Come check it out this week!

My Top 25 for the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Henrik Stenson

4. Bubba Watson

5. Sergio Garcia

6. Justin Rose

7. Jordan Spieth

8. Adam Scott

9. Jason Day

10. Rickie Fowler

11. Brooks Koepka

12. Matt Kuchar

13. Byeong-Hun An

14. Patrick Reed

15. Phil Mickelson

16. Justin Thomas

17. Hideki Matsuyama

18. Danny Willett

19. Shane Lowry

20. Paul Casey

21. Kevin Na

22. Jimmy Walker

23. Bill Haas

24. Harris English

25. Marc Leishman

Honda Classic Fantasy Golf Happy Hour [Podcast]

This week Joel and I break down the Honda Classic. Discussing DraftKings plays and strategy then diving into Yahoo! Fantasy Golf picks as well.

If you like what we’re spittin’ out week-to-week then come show your support and potentially win cool stuff by heading over to Patreon.com and becoming a patron today!

Join the fun of playing weekly fantasy golf at DraftKings.com, get in the action now!

There are whispers of fantasy golf joining the stable over at FanDuel.com, pop on over and start winning today!

Honda Classic Fantasy Preview

Let the Florida Swing begin! The TOUR packs up and blows a kiss to the poa annua greens as we head to Palm Beach Gardens for The Honda Classic’s bermudagrass greens.

Last week, Riviera did not live up to his reputation in terms of difficulty, but I don’t think the golfers will get another pass this week. PGA National’s Champion Course is one of the hardest non-major courses on TOUR, annually.

It’s a par 70 track, but this is more like a USGA par 70, where the actual value is irrelevant. Even-par is a good score around here. A difficult track can get inside the head of some golfers as they try to go low rather than grind out their best possible score. For our sake, it means less scoring opportunities for most fantasy formats.

Why is it so hard? It’s just over 7,100 yards which is tiny by today’s standards. Well, they take pride in being “PGA TOUR’S TOUGHEST COURSE!” so they change the par from 72 to 70 when the pros roll into town. Add in water hazards, millions of bunkers, restrictive fairways, and wind… and we have ourselves a tough test!

When I say restrictive fairways, I mean this is a less-than-driver course. The field average driving distance is generally around 270 yards, which is in the bottom five on TOUR. Golfers that rely on distance, will lose some of their advantage. That’s not to say bombers can’t do well here, they just need a different route to gain their strokes this week (approach shots, around the green, or putting).

Head over to the Honda Classic Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course and tournament history as well.

Players to Watch

Rickie Fowler… Playing in his “second home” this week. His course history here is not the best, but it’s certainly not the worst. Three top 25s in six tries. With the WM Phoenix Open sting still fresh in his mind, I’m expecting another top 25 this week. Not my favorite play of the week, but I support Mister Puma.

Jimmy Walker… We are out of the West Coast, so leave him holstered until we hit Texas. Making his first start here since 2012, so its a bit unexpected that he joins the field. On the flip side he’s a Texan who is great in the wind. Maybe it’s not time to throw him away just yet.

Charles Howelll III… Another golfer with the West Coast rep. Chucky Three Stricks brings in some of the best form in the field. He’s gained 33.37 strokes over the field during the last 10 weeks of PGA TOUR action. Only Kisner and Phil have more (in the field). CH3 is a perfect 9-for-9 here but has just one top 25 in nine tries. This is a good week to add another.

Freddie Jacobson… The Swede is playing fantastic golf again, but many will get thrown off the scent by last week’s MC. I’m willing to overlook one bad week and hop back on the course history train. In seven trips to PGA National, Jacobson has walked away with top 30s in six of them. He sets up residence in Florida which helps his cause. It also helps that he can get up-and-down from anyone, a crucial skill this week if you’re not on your A game.

Jason Dufner… Duff Daddy posted just six top 25s last season, this stop was one of them. He doesn’t rely on length which is perfect. His ball-striking should push him past the cut. His putter is always the question mark. High upside, low risk. Solid.

Keegan Bradley… Unlike Dufner, Keegan still struggles to find the weekend when his putter goes awry. As a Jupiter resident, he’s very familiar with these parts. He’s got three top 15s in five tries here. The other two were missed cuts. That sums up what you’re gonna get with Bradley this week. A top 20 or a MC.

Luke Donald… While Bradley struggles with the putter (understatement), Donald has made his living on the putter. One of the many Euros that settled in Florida, it’s no surprise to see Donald take a liking to the golf in this state. Two of his five wins are in Florida and he’s finished top 10 here four (of five) times since the venue moved to PGA National. Lock and load, The Donald is in for a great week.

Patrick Rodgers… Once again I jump the gun on a youngster. Have no fear, we are back in bermudaland where Rodgers has actually excelled so far in his young career. Great GPP play this week as others jump off the scent.

David Lingmerth… Another great GPP play as the January flavor of the month has gone out of stock. He arrives with a pair of top 25s on his PGA National resume and four top 15s on the season (despite two straight MCs). Don’t be scared to throw him back into the mix.

Graeme McDowell… G-Mac has more than his fair share of success at this venue. In six trips, he’s walked away with top 10s in three of them. Last year was his first MC, but don’t expect that to happen again. With a win and a third-place finish in two of his four starts this year, last years slump looks like a thing of the past.

Daniel Berger… He’s a local who lives just ten minutes from the course. The local knowledge runs deep with this one. That makes his runner-up finish during his debut last year make complete sense. He’s a bit up-and-down, but we should see an up week at the Honda.

Rory McIlroy… Rory Mack Daddy has won here before but owns a SG:Total of just 1.10 at PGA National. His driving distance gets muted here, so he really has to bring his A game in order to win again.

Honda Classic Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet for just five bucks. This week’s content will drop on Tuesday afternoon. Come check it out this week!

My Top 25 for the 2016 Honda Classic

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Patrick Reed

3. Paul Casey

4. Rory McIlroy

5. Luke Donald

6. Adam Scott

7. Kevin Kisner

8. Russell Knox

9. Brooks Koepka

10. Jason Dufner

11. Phil Mickelson

12. Hideki Matsuyama

13. Ryan Palmer

14. Graeme McDowell

15. Sergio Garcia

16. Charles Howell III

17. Freddie Jacobson

18. Jimmy Walker

19. Brendan Steele

20. Daniel Berger

21. Zach Johnson

22. Keegan Bradley

23. Webb Simpson

24. Matt Jones

25. Francesco Molinari