Josh Culp's Blog, page 25

BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

As we prep for the third leg of the FedExCup Playoffs, we can say goodbye to cut-line sweats. The field is now down to 69 golfers and 30 at the TOUR Championship (in two weeks) so everyone in the field will play all four rounds from here on out.

While golfers don’t have to worry about making the cut, they do have to deal with the beast known as Crooked Stick Golf Club. It tips out past 7,550 yards. That is even with two of the four par 5s coming in under 550 yards. That means a lot of long par 3s and long par 4s. Putting an emphasis on great ball-striking with distance being a nice advantage to have.

The last time Crooked Stick hosted was in 2012 when the course was drenched. They played lift, clean, and place all four rounds which made it play much easier than you’d come to expect from a lengthy Pete Dye design. Part of that is due to tournament officials having to move up some tee boxes to account for the soggy fairways that had zero rollout.

Because this week we have a lengthy par 72 layout with easy-to-hit fairways and bentgrass greens, I’m looking at events such at the Memorial, The Masters, THE PLAYERS, Bethpage Black, and the Shell Houston Open as potentially correlated events.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for golfer quotes and tournaments angles.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… Last week I talked about the similarities between his terrible putting at Bethpage Black in 2012 and two weeks ago. Just like back in 2012 he put the poor putting week out of his mind and recovered nicely to win at TPC Boston. In 2012 he parlayed that into a win at Crooked Stick as well. Unlike at the DBC, McIlroy won the 2012 BMW while losing 1.091 strokes putting for the week. He won’t have ball-in-hand all week this time around, but the course will still set up nicely for his extreme length. I have no troubles getting right back on the train.

Jason Day… He flirted with a missed cut last week, with the driver being the big issue again. His misses continue to be HUGE and he won’t get any relief this week on a lengthy 7,550+ yard layout. He could be one tiny swing change away from fixing his problem, but I don’t want to take that chance after seeing it two weeks in a row. I’ve got him just outside my top 10 this week, which means he’s a FADE for me since he costs top dollar in all formats.

Louis Oosthuizen… Talked about my love for him last week since he could use his driver early and often at TPC Boston. I ended up with less exposure than I should have, but I won’t make the same mistake this week. He’s in sneaky good form and the generous landing areas here at Crooked Stick will allow him to keep it between the pipes where he ranks 4th on TOUR in GIR from Fairway (121st in GIR from OTHER).

Justin Rose… I was worried Rose was going to rain on my Course History parade last week but he imploded on Sunday to finish way out of the mix, as usual at TPC Boston. I think he should bounce back this week and he’s in need of a big finish if he wants to qualify for the TOUR Championship.

Patrick Reed… Every year someone gets hot in the Playoffs, at least that’s how the story goes. Now Reed has a win and a T5, so he’s the perfect candidate to keep the form rolling.

Hideki Matsuyama… I hate when my spreadsheets tell me to fade Matsuyama so the last few weeks have been hard. This week he’s back on my radar since we’re dealing with four par 5s and generous fairways. I’m expecting him to be near the top of the field this week in both GIR and proximity to hole, which should allow him to rattle off a top 20 even with mediocre putting.

Emiliano Grillo… Shoots arrows of the tee, so these fairways are going to look like an ocean for him to hit into. From the fairway all these TOUR pros are incredible at hitting the greens, so Grillo should be one to watch this week with his fairways-and-greens mentality. If the flat stick heats up then he’ll be a serious contender.

Jordan Spieth… Spieth is really close to hitting that 2015 form, but there is always a minor setback. His ability to manage his way around a course always makes him a strong contender when the course lengthens. Despite not being the long hitter on TOUR, he manages his misses better than most on TOUR and that leaves him in position to score week in and week out. I can’t think of anyone other than Rory that I’d rather anchor my teams with this week.

My Top 25 for the 2016 BMW Championship

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Jordan Spieth

3. Adam Scott

4. Dustin Johnson

5. Louis Oosthuizen

6. Justin Rose

7. Hideki Matsuyama

8. Emiliano Grillo

9. Patrick Reed

10. Matt Kuchar

11. Paul Casey

12. Jason Day

13. Gary Woodland

14. Rickie Fowler

15. Ryan Palmer

16. Sergio Garcia

17. Bubba Watson

18. Tony Finau

19. Zach Johnson

20. Bill Haas

21. Jimmy Walker

22. Kevin Chappell

23. Billy Horschel

24. Brooks Koepka

25. Brandt Snedeker

Omega European Masters Fantasy Preview

Looking at the picture above (shared by Matthew Fitzpatrick), it’s easy to see why Danny Willett is choosing to defend his title instead of playing in the FedExCup Playoffs. Even if I wasn’t defending, I would seriously consider the Euro Masters in the Swiss Alps with those kind of views.

The course is Crans-Sur-Sierre Golf Club in Switzerland. The course is short (6,848 yards) but don’t confuse that with easy. This is a par 72 for the members, but it’s reduced to a par 70 for this event. It even includes 540-yard and 504-yard par 4s (I assume downhill). Add in the elevation and it’s likely not too daunting but that’s still a lot of yardage for a par 4.

Because of the short layout, I would not focus on distance and instead look for Fairway-and-GIR machines. Because of the altitude, I would focus heavily on course history since some golfers just won’t deal with adjusting their yardages as well.

Players to Watch

Ricardo Gouveia… He continues to show consistency and this week he grades out as good as ever. On top of that, he finished first on the Challenge Tour money list last year which features plenty of course in the region. Some other Challenge Tour money list leaders in the past include Tommy Fleetwood, Marc Warren, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Edoardo Molinari. They all have some great finishes here in Crans Montana and I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

Miguel Angel Jimenez… Over the last 10 years, Miggy has gained 81.53 strokes over the field here which is 20 strokes more than the next closest, Danny Willett. COURSE HORSE!

Bradley Dredge… He’s a past winner here and took home a solo second last week, so trends are converging well for Dredge.

Matteo Manassero… Like Dredge, the Italian is finding his game again. He also has a close call at this venue, finishing in third place back in 2010.

Chris Wood… While Nappy Factor is a big deal, Wood has a different kind of bump this week… The wedding swag. Wood tied the knot a few weeks ago and backed out last week, perhaps to prolong his honeymooon? His mid-season injury should leave his ownership lower than it should, making him a solid GPP play on DraftKings.

Mikko Korhonen… Continually underpriced on DK, and this week is no different ($5900). His baseline top-25 rate on the Euro Tour since 2015 is 11th-best in the field, so the value and upside is there.

Gregory Bourdy… The value is there for the Frenchman this week but the course history is a big concern. I talked about how I was weighting course history even more this week due to the altitude, and Bourdy gets a big downgrade because of it. Over the last seven trips here, he’s found just one top 30, missing the cut four of the seven times. His stats are WAY better than a $7700 golfer on DK, but he may be a stay-away despite the great stats and great season form.

Rikard Karlberg… With four straight missed cuts his form is a big concern but you’re getting a nice discount because of the recent slide. A great GPP option for that reason.

Julien Quesne and Nino Bertasio… Nino has been playing great all season (although last week’s Friday tumble was killer). Quesne has six top 20s in 2016 so his season form is not bad either. One thing they also have in common is being past Order of Merit winners on the Alps Tour. As you can imagine by the name, they likely play a lot of similar-style tracks so give them a nice boost this week.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Euro Masters

1. Tyrrell Hatton

2. Lee Westwood

3. Danny Willett

4. Richard Sterne

5. Alex Noren

6. David Howell

7. Ricardo Gouveia

8. Nino Bertasio

9. Matthew Fitzpatrick

10. Bradley Dredge

11. Thongchai Jaidee

12. Mikko Korhonen

13. Bernd Wiesberger

14. Andy Sullivan

15. Richie Ramsay

16. Chris Wood

17. Julien Quesne

18. Matteo Manassero

19. Tommy Fleetwood

20. Miguel Angel Jimenez

21. Maximilian Kieffer

22. Mike Lorenzo-Vera

23. Bryson DeChambeau

24. Callum Shinkwin

25. Robert Dinwiddie

Deutsche Bank Championship Fantasy Preview

With Ryder Cup talk in full force, let’s try to look past that and focus on this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship in Norton, MA. We have an extra day of prep this week since the tournament starts on Friday, so take advantage of that extra research time, but don’t overdo it and talk yourself too far off your gut plays.

The course is TPC Boston which plays host to this event annually, unlike last week’s Barclays and next week’s BMW, which both rotate courses year-to-year. TPC Boston is a par 71 that plays right around 7,300 yards. It’s an Arnold Palmer design that has been touched up by Gil Hanse. The fairways are easy to hit and the greens are bentgrass.

The first thing I like to look at is the yardage on a hole-by-hole basis. This week’s track is remarkably close to Bethpage Black last week. There are three par 3s over 200 yards, two par 4s under 410 yards, three par 4s between 410 and 450 yards, six par 4s over 450 yards and one par 5 over 575 yards. All of this is the same as last week’s Black Course at Bethpage, so yardage-wise, we don’t see a huge difference.

The big difference comes in the difficulty of the setup. While Bethpage features some of the most penal rough in the country, TPC Boston is on the opposite side of the spectrum. Golfers can grip it and rip it without much fear that errant tee shots will get gobbled up. Because this allows bombers to rip it apart from time-to-time, it gives TPC Boston a somewhat false reputation as a bomber’s paradise. When in fact, the course is manageable for all distances to compete, just look at the track record of Steve Stricker or Jim Furyk if you need proof.

Great scramblers have also had a knack for performing well here, so I will give that a strong look this week, as well.

Other than Bethpage Black, some other comparable events/courses I stumbled upon include: the Memorial, Congressional CC and Firestone CC.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for golfer quotes and tournaments angles.

Players to Watch

Henrik Stenson… Withdrew after round one last week for “precautionary” reasons after feeling pain in the same knee that was operated on over the winter. It was a poor opening round by his standards but he could have shot even par in round 2 and still made the cut. The Swede has a win (2013) and runner-up (2015) on his TPC Boston resume so keep a very close eye on his status and be ready to invest if nothing bad pops up.

Jason Day… Was right in the mix last week despite having some of the worst off-the-tee stats at Bethpage Black. Luckily TPC Boston is much more forgiving off the fairways so I’m expecting him to add to his already strong resume of five top 15s here at TPC Boston.

Rickie Fowler… Nearly played his way onto the Ryder Cup squad but floundered down the stretch. Still a good week, but he did nothing to help out his reputation as a poor closer. Luckily, this week has a very similar yardage setup to last week’s venue, and a win here last year reinforces that it plays well for his game. He’s still a lock to crack the Ryder Cup squad but in true Fowler fashion, I think he’ll finish the season strong to prove he’s worthy.

Rory McIlroy… The switch to the Scotty Cameron mallet did him no good on the greens, but he’s had some poor history putting at Bethpage Black to begin with. He remains a weekly threat to win, and is long overdue for a PGA TOUR victory. With a victory already on his TPC Boston resume (2012), might as well add a second.

Justin Rose… As a member of Team Course History, I don’t just look for the top course horses, I also look for fades based on course history. Rose certainly fits that bill this week. The Englishman has finished outside the top 50 in six of his last seven visits to TPC Boston. That is just bizarre for a golfer of his talent. It could be a sight line thing or it could be trouble with the green complexes. Whatever it is, I don’t want to bank on him figuring it out, especially with his salary where you are really looking for a top 15 to avoid disappointment.

David Lingmerth… While I’m fading Rose due to course history, Lingmerth is someone I’m willing to take a chance on. He’s 0-for-2 here with just one round in red numbers, but four rounds is not enough to convince me he’s a course turd. Also, unlike Rose, his expectations are much lower, so I can pick him on DraftKings for $3,400 cheaper. Why am I willing to take a shot? He’s fared really well on two of the correlated events I’m looking at, WGC Bridgestone and the Memorial.

Louis Oosthuizen… He’s generally top 40 every year in strokes gained off-the-tee and TPC Boston will let him put that big stick to good use. It’s no surprise to see a 2nd and 12th on his TPC Boston CV, in two tries.

Emiliano Grillo… He’s been a weekly plug-and-play for a few months now. Now his salary has risen quite a bit on DraftKings, unfortunately. Once again he should set up great for the course, but his lack of scrambling skills does worry me a bit. If he’s splashing greens at an ultra-high rate then it won’t be a big problem, but if he’s just average in terms of GIR this week then it could become an issue.

Sergio Garcia… His lack of respect/care for the FedExCup is a bit concerning. He doesn’t give a hoot about the dangling carrot ($10 Million) and makes that clear by skipping one or two events every year. Finished eighth at the Olympics but hasn’t teed it up since. I think I’ll leave him alone and let him work out the rust this week as he tries to peak for the Ryder Cup.

Bubba Watson… Has ZERO top 10s in 10 starts at TPC Boston. On the bright side he’s beat the field average in seven of those starts, so he’s not tanking he just hasn’t popped. His ability to thrash the par 5s makes him a solid play on DFS sites that heavily value eagles.

Steve Stricker… Stricks is a very tough nut for me to crack this week. On one hand, he’s the Team Course History play at TPC Boston. He also finished T2 in birdie or better percentage last week (his best performance in that stat all year). The down side? He lost 3.69 strokes off-the-tee + approach-the-green. At this point in his career, I don’t think he has the tee-to-green game to rely on week-to-week. Despite the long track record of stellar course history, I’m going to pass here.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship

1. Jason Day

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Bubba Watson

4. Rickie Fowler

5. Jordan Spieth

6. Adam Scott

7. Henrik Stenson

8. Jim Furyk

9. Emiliano Grillo

10. Zach Johnson

11. Charl Schwartzel

12. Patrick Reed

13. Louis Oosthuizen

14. Gary Woodland

15. John Senden

16. Kevin Chappell

17. Tony Finau

18. Justin Thomas

19. Brooks Koepka

20. Dustin Johnson

21. Branden Grace

22. Sergio Garcia

23. Matt Kuchar

24. Webb Simpson

25. William McGirt

Made in Denmark Fantasy Preview

After a surprise winner at the Czech Masters (Paul Peterson) we now head to the Made in Denmark. It’s the third edition of this event which has a party atmosphere.

During the inaugural 2014 edition, the Himmerland Golf & Spa’s Backtee Course played to 7,033 yards and this year is listed at just 6,851 yards. Perhaps the field averaging 1.96 strokes over par played into that decision. There are now six par 4s under 410 yards, two par 5s under 550 yards and two par 3s under 160 yards. Distance is certainly not required this week.

Unlike most weeks, I would avoid distance and opt for accuracy and great GIR rates.

Below are some quick thoughts on a few players.

Players to Watch

Soren Kjeldsen… The Dane is the man to beat this week. He’s a fairways and greens machine and at less than 6,900 yards this week’s venue will be right up his alley.

Dean Burmester… Pushed aside a missed cut on the Sunshine Tour to finish T35 last week at the Czech Masters. He continues to show consistency in weak-field Euro Tour events. Keep riding him, especially on DraftKings where his price is way too low.

Bradley Dredge… Has a runner-up and T6 at this venue in just two tries. He’s establishing himself as a nice course horse. He’s a top-10 talent to begin with in this field, but add in the course history and he’s an easy pick.

Ricardo Gouveia… If you’ve read my previews for a while, you probably know my strange love for Gouveia. The Central Florida alum has not shown massive upside, but it’s his consistency that makes him a great play on DraftKings this week. At $6,700 you don’t need much more than a cut made.

Martin Kaymer … This is a pure class play. He’s also fighting for his Ryder Cup spot, so the motivation to keep his foot on the gas all week will be there.

Roope Kakko… Disappointed some gamers in Rio, but now he faces off against a weak field which is the spot we want to target him. A nice salary-saver this week.

David Lipsky… The 28-year-old American is establishing himself as a potential course horse, gaining 14.53 strokes over the field in two starts here. Has top 35s in four of his last six starts entering the week, as well.

David Horsey… Sticking with the David’s with good course history, Mr. Horsey is the defending champion so we know the course suits him. Looking at his last 10 events on short courses, he’s beat the field average in seven of them. He should be able to slip past the cut in his title defense and a top 20 wouldn’t be surprising.

Mads Sogaard… The Duke alum is out of form but a return to his home country may provide a spark. He is an interesting sleeper but his inclusion in the top 25 tells us more about the lack of depth in this week’s field.

My Top 25 Rankings for the 2016 Made in Denmark

1. Soren Kjeldsen

2. Bradley Dredge

3. Martin Kaymer

4. Andy Sullivan

5. Matthew Fitzpatrick

6. Thomas Pieters

7. Dean Burmester

8. Magnus A. Carlsson

9. David Lipsky

10. David Horsey

11. Ross Fisher

12. Richard Sterne

13. Ricardo Gouveia

14. Nino Bertasio

15. Matthew Southgate

16. Thomas Aiken

17. Shane Lowry

18. Jaco Van Zyl

19. Chris Hanson

20. Roope Kakko

21. Mads Sogaard

22. Chris Paisley

23. Anders Hansen

24. David Drysdale

25. Graeme Storm

The Barclays Fantasy Preview

Put your razors away, it’s time to grow some Playoff Beards.

The first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs is in Farmingdale, New York, and it’s The Barclays.

The course is the Black Course at Bethpage State Park (Bethpage Black). It automatically gets grouped into the “classical course” folder since it was designed by A.W. Tillinghast. Unlike many of his other courses though, it forces you to play through the air. We recently saw Baltusrol at the PGA Championship (another Tillinghast Design). That course had plenty of “ramps” onto the greens that allowed multiple route to the hole. That won’t be the case this week, as it’s a brute of a course (7,468 yards, par 71) while the forced carries will likely put a bigger emphasis on distance.

At the same time, the thick rough will help shorter hitters by penalizing errant tee shots. The last time The Barclays was played here (2012), the GIR percentage from the fairway was 76.3% while the GIR rate was just 42.2% from off the fairway. That 34% difference is nearly 10% higher than TOUR average of 25%. I rarely look at putting stats but I think it’s a week even moreso that you want to target tee-to-green play over short game. Looking for golfers that are longer than average but also straighter than average is the trick. Of course a few great putters will end up near the top, but I don’t want to put my egg in that basket this week, personally.

Other than forced carries and penal rough, the fast greens also play as a defense mechanism. During the U.S. Opens, they’ve had them rolling as quick as 14 feet on the stimp and slowed them down to 12.5 at the 2012 Barclays (still quick). During that 2012 edition, many golfers said they “lost the greens” and were putting on dirt for a round or two. It will be interesting to see how they prep the course this time around, but I’m expecting some quick bentgrass greens.

As far as course setup there are six lengthy par 4s (over 450 yards) and three lengthy par 3s (over 200 yards). That’s at least half the holes where long-iron play will be pivotal, so again I want to target distance this week.

Some comparable events/courses I stumbled upon include: the Memorial, Congressional CC, Baltusrol, The Masters, Shell Houston.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for golfer quotes and tournaments angles.

Players to Watch

Henrik Stenson… Remember that mythical golfer I described who is longer than TOUR average and also straight as an arrow off the tee? That’s Stenson in a nutshell. He happens to also be playing some of the best golf of his career lately. Lock and load.

Jordan Spieth… A remarkably good season for what many are considering a letdown year. I think he’s really close to showing that 2015 Spieth form. I don’t like that he’s debuting at Bethpage and also lacking in approach precision. However, he’s still one of the best in terms of managing his misses which always brings him to the top of the pack whenever a tough track pops up.

Rickie Fowler… Stood still at 12th last week on the Ryder Cup points list. This week is his final shot at securing a spot. Luckily he gets a lengthy, difficult track with bentgrass greens. Since 2014, only five golfers in the field have gained more strokes on bentgrass courses. I think a top 15 is likely, but the winning upside is obviously there.

Rory McIlroy… I said I wanted to target distance, and Rory is as good as it gets when it comes to distance (without sacrificing accuracy). He feasts on courses over 7,400 yards and was spotted this morning with a Scotty Cameron in his bag. Perhaps that can provide a spark on the greens.

Emiliano Grillo… Shoots arrows off the tee with a fair amount distance as well. He continues to be one of my favorite “safe plays” each week.

Francesco Molinari… Has the accuracy like Grillo above, but he doesn’t drop in birdies quite as much. On a site like DraftKings, you’ll be paying for consistency but you’ll need to rely on finishing bonus to make up for some lack of scoring firepower.

Lucas Glover… Last week was the first time Glover ever popped for me statistically but I’m ready to quit while I’m ahead. Glover won here in 2009 but he’s failed to rack up a top 25 in his last 21 starts on bentgrass. I think he’ll be popular on DraftKings because of his round of 61 last week plus he’s a past winner. I recommend a FADE, though.

Luke List… Speaking of Luke/Lucas, Mr. List looks like a great tee-to-green fit for Bethpage Black. He always crushes par 5s and loves long par 4s. I have him projected 14th in the field this week in terms of tee-to-green. It always comes down to the flat stick, though. I think he makes for a great GPP pivot off Glover this week on DraftKings.

Kevin Na… His wife is due in early September so he’ll be skipping the Deutsche Bank Championship. That makes him a risky play for the time being, because we know due dates are not always definite. He’s not a knockout play this week, so I will be playing is safe and taking a pass here. FADE.

Johnson Wagner… Don’t get caught up in the local angle this week. Wagner calls this one of his favorite courses on TOUR in large part because he won an amateur event here, the 2001 Met Open. His lone start here on the PGA TOUR was the 2012 Barclays where he posted 71-79=150 to finish in the bottom 10 for the week.

Jason Day… He’s one of the guys that will get a big boost if the fairways are playing firm this week. If it’s soft, he’ll be forced into a lot of drivers, and that would likely lead to a big number or too as his misses off the tee are BIG. If the fairways are rolling out, I expect Day to club down more often and would become one of the favorites in my eyes.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Barclays

1. Henrik Stenson

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Jason Day

5. Justin Rose

6. Adam Scott

7. Dustin Johnson

8. Bubba Watson

9. Rickie Fowler

10. Matt Kuchar

11. Charl Schwartzel

12. Emiliano Grillo

13. Francesco Molinari

14. Zach Johnson

15. Hideki Matsuyama

16. Brooks Koepka

17. Patrick Reed

18. Paul Casey

19. Phil Mickelson

20. Louis Oosthuizen

21. Charley Hoffman

22. Branden Grace

23. Russell Knox

24. Bill Haas

25. Jim Furyk

D+D REAL Czech Masters Fantasy Preview

The European Tour is back after taking some time off (at least from stroke-play events).

This week we are in the Czech Republic for the D+D (NOT FAKE) Czech Masters. It’s the third time this event has been held at the Albatross Golf Resort. It attracts a weak field but Jamie Donaldson and Thomas Pieters have taken home the trophy, so the course does seem to reward good golf.

It’s a par 72 course that plays at 7,467 yards. The greens are bentgrass. Looking at the course setup, there are four par 5s, with two of them being over 600 yards, so not reachable by most in the field. Three of the four par 3s are over 195 yards, so distance and/or long-iron play could certainly be handy this week.

Below are some quick thoughts on a few players. Also check the rankings at the bottom because I only hit on a few golfers this week.

Players to Watch

Chris Hanson… He’s played great all season but still finds himself 114th in the Race to Dubai. I see no weakness is in his game, especially for a $7,100 golfer on DraftKings.

Nino Bertasio… Same story as Hanson in terms of season-long form. The Italian is fresh off a performance in the Olympics, so he can walk a littler bit taller this week. A great cash-game play on DraftKings since he’s pretty cheap and he rattles off top 30s in his sleep.

Max Kieffer… Last year the German was performing similarly to the way Hanson and Bertasio are playing this year. However, Kieffer has seen a drop-off in consistency in 2016. He’s no longer a cash option, but a great GPP since this par 72 looks like a track he could really manhandle.

Dean Burmester… Speaking of manhandling, Burmester is elite off the tee. The only problem is his form as he’s seen a dip in performance since a back injury knocked him out of the Swiss Challenge in June. A great GPP option on DraftKings.

Adrian Otaegui … Looking at courses over 7,350 yards on the European Tour, Otaegui has beat the field average in eight of his last 11 starts. This course fits the bill. He finished T30 here in 2014 but missed the cut last year. Could be a nice salary saver this week.

Eddie Pepperell… If you like using limited course history sample sizes, Eddie Pepps is one of the best in the field this week. He’s finished T5 and T22 in two trips to Albatross Golf Resort.

Carols Pigem… Could be a super-sneaky punt play this week on DraftKings. In limited samples on the European Tour he’s shown high rates of beating the field average on long par 72s. He also won on the Asian Tour just last month so his confidence should be elevated.

Robert Dinwiddie… He arrives in decent form (top 35s in four of his last five) and also finished fourth here last year. Not someone you generally look to anchor your teams, but the trends are pointing the right direction this week.

Pedro Oriol… If we’re looking at course fit, Oriol is in the conversation. Over his last 12 starts on par 72s, he’s beat the field average in nine of them. If you just want a cut made this week, Oriol might be a cheap option that gets the job done.

My Top 25 Rankings for the 2016 Czech Masters

1. Lee Westwood

2. Andy Sullivan

3. Thomas Pieters

4. Richard Sterne

5. Nino Bertasio

6. Chris Hanson

7. Matthew Fitzpatrick

8. Richard Bland

9. Dean Burmester

10. Bradley Dredge

11. Matthew Southgate

12. David Howell

13. Maximilian Kieffer

14. Carlos Pigem

15. Jaco Van Zyl

16. Adrian Otaegui

17. Lee Slattery

18. Eddie Pepperell

19. Florian Fritsch

20. Chris Paisley

21. Callum Shinkwin

22. Pedro Oriol

23. Mikko Korhonen

24. Robert Dinwiddie

25. Zander Lombard

Wyndham Championship Fantasy Preview

Last week we saw weather take its toll on TPC Deere Run leading to many course horses failing. Or was it due to the change from July to August? Either way, it was not a good week to be on Hashtag Team Course History.

We may be in for more of the same delays this week with Thunderstorms currently on the forecast for Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Keep an eye on weather as the week progresses but it may be one of those weeks to stack tee-time waves in case weather delays create a favorable draw for one side of the spectrum. We will have to see how that unfolds over the next few days.

The course this week is in Greensboro, North Carolina. It’s Sedgefield Country Club, a par 70 Donald Ross design where the scorecard reads 7,127 yards.

There are two short par 3s and two long par 3s. There are three short par 4s and three long par 4s with six par 4s in the range I classify as “average”. A very balanced course until you get to the par 5s. Both of them are under 550 yards, reachable by everyone in the field. This is where a majority of the scoring is gonna take place, especially on DraftKings where eagles are so valuable. Scoring on short par 5s is definitely something to look at this week.

Other than that, the fairways are easy to hit (like last week) and the greens are bermuda (unlike last week). They’ve been bermuda since converting from bentgrass before the 2012 edition. Each of the past six winners have ties to the Carolinas, Georgia, or Florida, so you can’t rule out the regional knowledge (Bermuda Country) this week.

Some comparable events/courses I stumbled upon include: Honda Classic, RSM Classic, Colonial, Zurich Classic.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more quotes and tournaments angles.

Players to Watch

Bill Haas… He loves classical golf courses and this one is right in his back yard, or at least in North Carolina where he always feel comfortable. Sedgefield is not a course that requires you to pound drivers and that sounds like a great course for the Haas. Course history backs it up with top 10s in three of his last four here.

Webb Simpson… Sticking with the local angle, Webb grew up about an hour from this week’s venue and still lives withing two hours. His track record is even more impressive than Haas’ with six top 25s in seven tries including a win in 2011. That was right before the switch to bermuda but we know Simpson doesn’t rely on his putting so it’s all about the ball-striking and escaping with field-average putting on the week.

Ben Martin… While his connection isn’t as close as our first two featured, Martin is a South Carolina guy so he’s right at home here in Bermuda country. Finished T10 here last year and tied his career-low round last week at the John Deere so he arrives in good form. Let it ride, I say.

Camilo Villegas… Has his back against the wall in terms of retaining his TOUR status. He needs a big week at Sedgefield. Luckily, he’s a past winner and also won at East Lake in 2008. The only golfer on TOUR to win twice on Donald Ross designs since 2008. You could play either narrative if you want to take a shot on Cami. This is not a firm recommendation, just a reminder of his Donald Ross success as I remember it wining me some moolah using that angle back in 2014.

William McGirt… When asked last year whether he considers this a home game he responded with, “Very much so. I grew up two and a half hours from here down in Fairmont. I live in Spartanburg now. Little over two hours now. I was telling them earlier if there was one place I could get my first win here or at Charlotte or Hilton Head simply because I live in South Carolina now for Hilton Head. Growing up in North Carolina. Here or Charlotte would be great.” … He can’t make this his maiden win anymore, but he could make it his second. McGirt is not flashy, so I always like him on a classical layout like this week’s venue.

Jon Rahm… Continues to rack up birdies, but last week ran into a few big numbers. No reason to jump off the train now, especially on DraftKings where birdies are extremely valuable.

Jason Dufner… Much like Haas, Duff Daddy thrives on these classical layouts that force you to be dialed in with your irons, rather than rely on distance. Winning upside, but provides a nice floor as well.

Patrick Reed… Defeated Spieth in a playoff here back in 2013 to secure his first TOUR title. Now heads straight from Rio to tee it up here to give back to the tournament that launched his career and also to pad his Ryder Cup points as he currently sits in eighth place, right on the bubble.

Tyrrell Hatton… Has been playing well all year, worldwide. This week could have big implications on his TOUR status if he goes well. That extra motivation is nice, but it’s really his great season form that makes him appealing this week.

Brandt Snedeker… It’s too early in the week to know how popular he’ll be, but he makes for a great GPP play if he doesn’t get talked up too much. He won this event in 2007 when it was played at Forest Oaks CC. He’s also won at East Lake, another Donald Ross creation. Ryder Cup motivation as well.

Kevin Kisner… Checks the boxes in terms of correlated courses. His lone PGA TOUR title came at the RSM Classic, another short par 70 layout with bermuda greens. He’s also posted back-to-back top 10s at Colonial, another par 70 less-than-driver course.

Harris English… Loves to work the ball both ways, so these classical tracks that require shot-making usually set up well for the Georgia Bulldog.

Rickie Fowler… Added this event to look for Ryder Cup points. Needs to make a good impression this week with his back against the wall. You could say that he’s a lock for a captain’s pick, but nobody wants to get into the Ryder Cup that way. Theses guys want to earn their way on. Fowler earned the top spot in my rankings this week but I have to admit you could make a case for anyone from the top 15 below this week.

Hideki Matsuyama… One of the top talents in the field, but it looks like we have poor course fit (and poor form) on our hands. He sees a decline in performance on par 70 courses, easy courses, and less-than-driver courses. He’s 1-for-3 here with missed cuts in each of the past two editions. I say no thanks, and will be fading, but I understand the upside he possesses.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Wyndham Championship

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Bill Haas

3. Jason Dufner

4. Patrick Reed

5. Kevin Na

6. Webb Simpson

7. Harris English

8. Ben Martin

9. Brandt Snedeker

10. Jon Rahm

11. Kevin Kisner

12. Tyrrell Hatton

13. Justin Thomas

14. William McGirt

15. Jim Furyk

16. Rafa Cabrera Bello

17. Ryan Moore

18. Wesley Bryan

19. Patton Kizzire

20. Keegan Bradley

21. Luke Donald

22. Billy Horschel

23. Michael Kim

24. Jimmy Walker

25. Shawn Stefani

John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview

After a cool-down in Connecticut, the TOUR heads to Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. The field is pretty thin even by its relatively low annual field depth standards.

There are a few key names in the field who wouldn’t skip this for the world. They include Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker, the course horses. They have ties to the area so they always help pad this event’s OWGR rating.

The course is TPC Deere Run and it’s a par 71 that could easily be played as a par 70 and scores would still look normal by PGA TOUR standards. Instead, the 7,268 yard track will allow the boatload of birdies as it pretends to be a par 71.

The fairways are generous which allows easy shots into bentgrass greens. From there it turns into a putting contest, as a typical shootout does.

The course is not overly long, and playing out of the fairway is very beneficial when it comes to sticking it close on these greens. For that reason, I will give more weight to driving accuracy or distance from edge of the fairway with the latter being my preferred accuracy stat.

Some comparable events/courses I stumbled upon include: Byron Nelson, Honda Classic, Congressional, PLAYERS, Valspar, and Zurich. They all have some aspects that resemble the setup this week at the JDC.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more quotes and tournaments angles.

Players to Watch

Zach Johnson… I already mentioned him in the intro but he deserves another mention. He’s as pure as course horses get, and has the local angle to provide extra ammo for rationale. Since 2006 he’s gained 83.86 strokes over the field here, in 38 rounds. Stricker is right there with him. They both have Midwest connections and happen to be world-class golfers. The Midwest factor helps attack them to this event on a yearly basis. Don’t get cute with this one and try to avoid ZJ and Stricker.

Jerry Kelly… Sticking with the Midwest connection, the Wisconsonite loves this layout as well. The only downfall is his low birdie-rate. On the flip side, you have to consider his birdie rate on similar layouts or even his birdie rate at TPC Deere Run historically. Even if he doesn’t rack up the birdies on a typical PGA TOUR layout, he always seems to find the bottom of the cup when he takes on TPC Deere Run and that’s important to remember when you’re looking at his raw scoring numbers.

John Senden… Having gained 28 strokes over the field in his last 24 rounds at TPC Deere Run, he also sports some solid history here. It’s his elite ball-striking that puts him in position. On weeks where his putter is dormant he finishes in the 30th to 50th range while he breaks through into the top 25 whenever his putter comes to play.

Daniel Summerhays… He was right in the thick of things last week on a course where he typically stunk. Listening to him talk on PGA TOUR Talk of the Tour podcast (after PGA Championship), he sounded like he’s as confident as ever right now and was treating that PGA Championship performance as a breakthrough. He says he’s longer concerned about that first win on the PGA TOUR, but I think it will still come to him sooner rather than later. This week’s venue would be a perfect place to do that. He’s precise off the tee and one of the best putters on TOUR, which is never a bad thing on easy-to-hit greens.

Keegan Bradley… This is a pure class play if you take Keegan this week. He doesn’t usually show up here at TPC Deere Run but his currently situation leaves him no choice. He’s in legit danger of losing his TOUR card if he doesn’t finish the season decently. We don’t think of this course as a bomber’s track but we also rarely get to see GOOD bombers play here. I think Keegs should be able to knock out a top 40 here in his sleep based on ball-striking alone. Obviously, the putter cannot be trusted.

Jon Rahm… Last week he proved he can handle a shorter track, especially in the first round when he came out firing. The man is a birdie machine, so keep on riding him.

Michael Kim… We saw him light up the Web.com Tour last year and he’s been really consistent during his PGA TOUR rookie season. The problem is his lack of upside. However, we basically have a glorified Web.com Tour field this week, so I think Kim actually has some top-25 upside this week. Lock him in.

Chris Stroud… He’s regaining form as of late, and has a solid course fit this week. He’s better on bentgrass greens, better on TPC Courses, better against weak fields, and better when the fairways are easy to hit. We’ve got ourselves a potential specialist this week.

Hudson Swafford… Been waiting for Swafford to breakout and this is exactly the type of field I imagine him beating for the maiden victory. Makes a buncha birdies every week, just needs to finish a week without posting big numbers on his scorecard.

Brian Harman… A huge letdown last week in what looked like a great spot (good form and good course history). Sometimes golfers don’t have their best stuff, but I’m expecting the lefty to rebound immediately. The only problem is his lack of consistency (as we saw last week), so I would keep him to GPPs only in DFS this week.

Fresh Faces… This is a catch-all for the unknowns in the field. That includes Aaron Wise, Robby Shelton, Jordan Niebrugge, Wes Bryan, Lee McCoy, Austin Connelly, Charlie Danielson, Michael Johnson. A TON of talent and future upside in that list of names, but they haven’t done enough on the big stage to warrant a big investment. If you find yourself getting carried away with these guys, try to reign it back. They come with a lot of promise but not much to back it up at this point in their careers.

My Top 25 for the 2016 John Deere Classic

1. Zach Johnson

2. Daniel Summerhays

3. Steve Stricker

4. Jon Rahm

5. Keegan Bradley

6. Kevin Na

7. Ryan Moore

8. Gary Woodland

9. John Senden

10. Robert Streb

11. Chris Stroud

12. Patrick Rodgers

13. Michael Kim

14. Jerry Kelly

15. Hudson Swafford

16. Brian Harman

17. Shawn Stefani

18. Adam Hadwin

19. Seung-Yul Noh

20. Wesley Bryan

21. Scott Brown

22. Johnson Wagner

23. Luke Guthrie

24. Jason Bohn

25. Bud Cauley

Olympic Golf Fantasy Preview

Let’s put all the Zika and security issues behind us for a second and focus on the course at hand. We head down to Rio where 60 golfers will take on the Olympic Golf Course, designed by Gil Hanse.

The course is a par 71 that stretches out to just 7,128 yards. The strange part about the course is that it features four par 5s and five par 3s. It’s a links-style venue with no trees and no rough (native areas instead). Hanse said the design was very much inspired by Castle Stuart, another one of his creations so have a look at Scottish Open results when Castle Stuart hosted (2011, 2012, 2013, 2016).

The fairways are said to be generous while the terrain has been compared to the Australian Sandbelt. The most recognizable course in that region would be Royal Melbourne. It recently hosted the 2013 World Cup of Golf.

The climate is quite a bit different than what most of the PGA TOUR pros are used to and that means different grass types as well, with Zeon Zoysia being used on the fairways and Seashore Paspalum on the greens. ZZ is not common in the US but it is used at Cordillera Ranch GC in Texas. “Our members love it because the ball sits up on it like a tee,” said Mark Semm, Cordillera Ranch Director of Agronomy (-PGATOUR.com). Jimmy Walker happens to be a member at that course, so it’s too bad he didn’t crack the field this week. Other courses that feature Zeon Zoysia include Tiger’s Bluejack National and Trinity Forest (which will host the Byron Nelson starting in 2019). It’s really not too common, but it sounds like it may become more popular over the coming years.

As for the greens, Seashore Paspalum can be found on a few venues each year, both on the PGA TOUR and European Tour. According to Bladerunner Farms (grower of the Zoysia turf for the Olympic Course) this Paspalum has virtually no grain (similar to bentgrass) and is used because it can withstand poor water quality such as seawater/saltwater. Some events that feature Seashore Paspalum greens include: Puerto Rico Open, OHL Classic at Mayakoba, CIMB Classic, Africa Open, Shenzhen International, Maybank Malaysian Open (not Maybank Championship Malaysia).

I’ve put together a spreadsheet with some strokes gained numbers on Seashore Paspalum, Links-Style courses, and Castle Stuart. Check it out, COOL STROKES GAINED SPREADSHEET.

Players to Watch

Emiliano Grillo… The Argentine has the South-American factor on his side and he arrives in great form. His precision off the tee means he’ll likely avoid the native areas this week, which could be a big problem for some of the bombers that miss big when they miss. Other than Stenson, I can’t think of another golfer I’d rather start my teams with this week.

Bubba Watson… Speaking of the big misses, that is Bubba in a nutshell. He’s tier-one in terms of pure class of this field, but he doesn’t get along with links-style layouts so well. Part of that is the sightlines and part of that is the lack of traditional rough. When you have fescue or other native area instead of 5-inch rough, Bubba has no choice but to accept his fate when he misses offline. If he likes the sightlines this week and/or gets lucky with his misses then he could lap the field, but that is too many IFs for my liking.

Henrik Stenson… Unlike Bubba, you can rely on the Swede to keep it in the short stuff, off the tee. He finally tackled his first major and showed no signs of a letdown at the PGA. Should be the favorite this week in my opinion.

Nicolas Colsaerts… Hanse was quick to compare this new course to another one of his designs, Castle Stuart. Looking at the Scottish Open results for the four times Castle Stuart has hosted, nobody in the field has gained more strokes than the Belgain Bomber. The only downside is that big drives = big misses. Just looking at the PGA Championship, Colsaerts distance from the edge of the fairway when he missed was 54’9″, more than double the field average of 26’5″. His performance at Castle Stuart is promising, but we don’t want to get carried away and assume Castle Stuart form automatically equals Olympic Golf Course form.

Fabrizio Zanotti… The Paraguayan is next-door neighbors with Brazil and has gained strokes over the field in six of his last seven starts on links-style courses. If you’re looking for a dark-horse candidate, Big Z has to be on your radar.

Ricardo Gouveia… Another dark-horse candidate. One I like a little better than Zanotti even. Ricardo is representing Portugal and we know that Brazil’s official language is Portugese. Consider that a big plus in terms of feeling comfy around the course. Then add in the fact that he’s actually a solid golfer. In 19 starts on the Euro Tour he has gained strokes on the field in 14 of them. Only 10 golfers in the field have a higher percentage than that 74-percent positive rate.

Julien Quesne… Sticking with sleepers, the Frenchman is the real deal on Seashore Paspalum. Over his last six starts on Paspalum he’s finished inside the top 35 in all of them, posting top 20s in five of the six. Sure, they are weak-field events like the Shenzhen International and Maybank Malaysia but the familiarity with the green’s grass type has to give him a leg up (even if its a small leg up). There must be something about Paspalum and France because Bourdy checks in at #2 in most strokes gained on Paspalum since 2014. Bourdy’s only potential concern is the dip in consistency when he heads to links venues.

Adilson Da Silva… My final sleeper will be the home country hero. De Silva is very competitive on the Sunshine Tour and Asian Tour, and now he gets to tee it up with the home fans at his back. The local knowledge may be enough to throw his name into contention.

Nino Bertasio… I said I was done with the sleepers, but I can’t forget about Nino. He’s been one of the hottest/most consistent golfers on the European Tour and has been a weekly staple on my Euro Tour squads, before the recent break from action. I’m not sure he has what it takes to win, but he could certainly crack a top 10 with the way he’s been playing in 2016.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Olympics

1. Henrik Stenson

2. Emiliano Grillo

3. Matt Kuchar

4. Danny Willett

5. Rickie Fowler

6. Sergio Garcia

7. Bubba Watson

8. Justin Rose

9. Patrick Reed

10. Martin Kaymer

11. Rafa Cabrera Bello

12. Ricardo Gouveia

13. Gregory Bourdy

14. Thomas Pieters

15. Soren Kjeldsen

16. Nino Bertasio

17. Padraig Harrington

18. Thongchai Jaidee

19. Adilson Da Silva

20. Julien Quesne

21. Jaco Van Zyl

22. Bernd Wiesberger

23. Nicolas Colsaerts

24. Fabrizio Zanotti

25. Alex Cejka

Travelers Championship Fantasy Preview

After a strange week at Baltusrol Golf Club, we head to TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship.

I only say last week was strange because what I assumed were home-run plays (Rory, DJ, Chappell, Finau, etc.) were all packing their bags early. Majors are usually defined by how well it identifies the best golfers in the world. The fact that Rory and DJ both missed the cut tells us that the course setup was not all that great. I will go ahead and blame the dumb pin placements/strange greens but I will admit I didn’t get to watch all the tournament in its entirety like usual. Rory and DJ combined to lose 7.785 strokes putting in the four total rounds they played! Luckily, I was off the grid camping for my lovely wife’s birthday for much of the weekend. Woohoo!

The course this week is TPC River Highlands, a short par 70 that plays much differently than a lot of the courses we’ve seen lately. For that reason, I would not lean heavily on recent form. Instead of all the massive par 4s over 450, we get a lot of par 4s in 410-450 range. For even the shortest of hitters on TOUR that means a lot more wedges and short-iron play.

There have been some renovations since last year but they are are mainly cosmetic or changes to help environmentally. That being said, even a minor tweak to a sight line or approach shot can make all the difference to PGA TOUR pros sometimes, so I would devalue course history just a teeny, tiny bit this week but still give it a nice look.

River Highlands is a Pete Dye Design, so it’s definitely worth looking at who has performed well on other Pete Dye Designs.

Some events/courses I’ve identified as potentially correlated include: RBC Heritage, Honda Classic, Colonial, Congressional CC, Valspar, Byron Nelson, and Sony Open. None of them are a perfect 1-to-1 fit, but they all share certain aspects so having a look at some of these events could be a nice tiebreaker.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course setup and golfer quotes from recent years.

Players to Watch

Matt Kuchar… The cats out of the bag that Kooch dominated Pete Dye Designs. Just looking at the past few seasons, he’s finished inside the top 25 in six of his eight starts on Dye tracks. He’s also a par-4 grinder so he rises to the occasion on par 70s and the lack of length on TPC River Highlands also plays into his hands. This is kind of a perfect fit and with him currently 11th in the Ryder Cup standings he has some nice motivation as well. Boom goes the dynamite! Don’t overthing this one.

Bubba Watson… Speaking of Ryder Cup motivation, Bubba is ninth in the standings and returns as the defending champ (2-time champ). It’d be surprising to see a finish outside the top 20. The only concern is the lack of form. Just three top 10s on the season and five top 25s. Like I said before, I wouldn’t lean too heavily on form this week, but that is one reason to look elsewhere this week.

Branden Grace… Missed the cut in his debut here last year but I’m expecting much better this time around. Continues to put his name into the mix on almost a weekly basis.

Kevin Chappell… I loved him last week because of his past performance on bentgrass and par 70 tracks. He disappointed but now he gets those same two angles but also a short course which also suits his game. I expect a big bounceback this week.

Luke Donald… He’s been a shadow of his old self but this is the type of layout that could get him back on track. It’s a short par 70 that doesn’t rely on distance. I’m not extremely high on him, but I wouldn’t talk anyone out of him this week, either.

Russell Henley… Another great fit, probably more so than Donald, even. He’s been hit-or-miss all season, but I would expect a hit this week. GPP only for DraftKings purposes due to his season inconsistencies, but a great GPP play, in my opinion.

Michael Kim… Speaking of underpriced DK options. Kim hasn’t shown the firepower in his rookie season, but sometime consistency is king, especially when it costs just $5.5K on DraftKings. He’s 20-for-25 on the season including five straight top 50s. Talk about salary-savings but hard to fully commit with his lack of pop.

Brian Harman… Has positive course form on six of the seven correlated events I previously mentioned and finished 3rd here last year. I don’t remember the last time I recommended Harman but he’s definitely on my radar this week.

Jon Rahm… I’ve been one of his biggest supporters early on but I don’t see this layout fitting his game that well. His approach play is his biggest “weakness” and that will get you in a lot of trouble this week. Last year Paul Casey said this, “If you short side yourself, especially if you get over these greens, you’re going to be in a world of hurt.” Back in 2012 Stuart Appleby also said, “if you short side yourself here, you’ll drop more shots than I think anywhere else because it’s just diabolical.” He’s been an absolute birdie machine so far so I cant’ completely ignore him on DraftKings, but this will be my lowest week of exposure to-date.

Bryson DeChambeau… Making his last available start (12th) as a Non-Member. Needs a third-place finish or better to earn his meal ticket to the TOUR. If you want to take the motivation angle, this is the week, but it’s turned out the wunderkind may need more seasoning after all.

Gary Woodland… Before last week’s missed cut he’d posted top 30s in 8-of-9 starts. I’m willing to throw out last week’s results since they were pretty wacky all around. Has posted top 25s in eight of his last 12 starts on courses under 7,100 yards so he’s not afraid to take advantage of his length with great wedge play.

Travelers Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! It should go live this week early Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Travelers Championship

1. Matt Kuchar

2. Bubba Watson

3. Paul Casey

4. Francesco Molinari

5. Webb Simpson

6. Gary Woodland

7. Tony Finau

8. Kevin Chappell

9. Branden Grace

10. Brooks Koepka

11. John Senden

12. Patrick Reed

13. Tyrrell Hatton

14. Zach Johnson

15. Justin Thomas

16. Charley Hoffman

17. Jim Furyk

18. Russell Henley

19. Keegan Bradley

20. Brian Harman

21. David Toms

22. Louis Oosthuizen

23. Soren Kjeldsen

24. Ryan Moore

25. Russell Knox