Josh Culp's Blog, page 27

Nordea Masters Fantasy Preview

Week two of Euro Tour DFS gets underway as we head to Sweden for the Nordea Masters.

The course is Bro Hof Slott GC. It’s a real bizarre track as he has five par 5s and five par 3s. It’s a beast of a track yardage-wise, but when you consider that 39 percent of the yardage is on the par 5s, it’s really manageable for any style of play to compete around here. For DraftKings purposes, the bombers will likely have more eagle opportunities given the handful of par 5s, so we should favor bombers this week unless we want to rely on finish position bonuses.

The venue was last used in 2013 (and the four years prior) so ignore or give much less weight to the last two editions. It’s also worth noting the course setup is nearly 100 yards shorter this time around (previously played at 7,607 yards). Only nine of the holes have remained the same (or within one yard). So, even the golfers that fared well at this track previously may feel slightly uncomfortable on some of the new tee boxes/hole setups.

Players to Watch

Henrik Stenson… File this one under DUH! He missed the cut in his lone start on this course but that was in 2011 when Stenson was having an identity crisis and missed five cuts in 12 Euro Tour starts. He’s kind of a show pony whenever he returns for this event, having a lot of media responsibilities and never winning it. He’s still the class of the field. We just saw Rory finally hoist the hardware at his home open so why not Stenson next?

Bradley Dredge… He was the talk of the DFS world during the debut of Euro Tour on DraftKings. Team Course History stayed clear of him last week at Wentworth but I’m ready to invest this week. His season form is better than 95 percnet of the field, so I think he’s in for a nice top 25 at least.

Tyrell Hatton… While Hatton may be one of the golfers that can boast better form than Dredge, I think he’s overpriced this week. Dredge ranks out better in every category I’m looking at but Hatton is 10,200 while Dredge is 8,800. He has the upside to win, but I think it’s a good week to let the masses take the form plunge and overpay here.

Alex Noren… It doesn’t matter what course they lay in front of him, the Swede always finds a way to contend here. His Euro performances over the past two years is also some of the best in the field, so feel free to lead with Noren this week.

Alejandro Canizares… He let us down last week on a coures he’s played well in the past. Luckily, he plays nearly every course well, so he’s worth another look this week at a nice bargain.

Jason Scrivener… Has posted top 30s in five of his last eight events played on longer tracks. He’s my long-course specialist this week that I’m going to ride to the finish line. His DK price of $7K makes it easy to do that.

Thomas Pieters… Part one of the Belgian Bomber duo (Colsaerts). Starting some lineups with that duo will give you a lot of firepower and eagle upside, with five par 5s on the course. Great upside pick here for a talent we could be seeing on the PGA TOUR before long.

Jeung-hun Wang… He’s gained 2+ strokes over the field in nine of 14 rounds played on long courses. This is a small sample size, but with two wins in the past month, I’m willing to take a chance on the 20-year-old keeping his foot on the gas.

Nordea Masters Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet!

My Top 25 for the 2016 BMW PGA Championship

1. Henrik Stenson

2. Alex Noren

3. Ross Fisher

4. Lee Westwood

5. Thomas Pieters

6. Nicolas Colsaerts

7. Bradley Dredge

8. Rikard Karlberg

9. Peter Hanson

10. Jason Scrivener

11. Jeung-hun Wang

12. Paul Dunne

13. Alejandro Canizares

14. Richard Bland

15. Magnus A. Carlsson

16. Julien Quesne

17. Benjamin Hebert

18. Tyrrell Hatton

19. Matthew Fitzpatrick

20. Jorge Campillo

21. James Morrison

22. Robert Rockg

23. Nino Bertasio

24. Kristoffer Brober

25. Romain Wattel

The Memorial Tournament Fantasy Preview

After Spieth finally got the Texas monkey off his back, and Rory finally sealed the deal in his home open, the big three arrive at this week’s Memorial all having won in their latest start (Jason Day @ PLAYERS being the third).

That trio will be the main story this week (and deservingly so) but do we need to target them for our fantasy squads? Between the three of them they own just one podium finish at Jack’s House in 15 tries. Most of that negative damage is done by Jason Day who is just 4-for-7 here with no top 25s to his name, despite being his home course. More on these three later.

The course is Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. It’s a par 72 that checks in just under 7,400 yards. The fairways are very generous, but extremely errant tee shots will lead to a lot of trouble. You really want to be playing from the short stuff this week, and you really need to be dialed in with your irons since it’s a second-shot course. With extremely fast greens, missing in the right spots is pivotal in order to make putting manageable. Great putters can excel here because the greens are so true, but if those great putters are all over the place, tee-to-green, they will struggle big time. Like the mark of any great course, there are many ways to get it done this week.

Take a look at the for more course specifics and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Hideki Matsuyama… Anytime a golf course is referenced as a “second-shot” course you have to look toward Matsuyama. He’s on of the best in the game at getting to the green, and he’s fared well on fast greens in his young career. Those two go hand-in-hand since Matsuyama can dial in his irons to miss on the proper side, allowing him much easier putts than much of the field. Despite the cachet of the big three, Matsuyama is my favorite for the week.

Jordan Spieth… I made Spieth the clear-cut favorite last week, but I’m not sure I can get back on board. He looked much better over the ball than the week prior, but it still wasn’t GREAT. He finished 30th in the field last week in SG:Approach (gaining 1.445 strokes on the week). Last year en route to his third-place finish at Muirfield Village, Spieth gained 7.071 strokes on approach. He loves fast greens, but even the Golden Boy will struggle on these lightning-quick greens if his approach game is similar to last week.

Rory McIlroy… Very similar to Spieth that his approach game has looked off early in 2016. Perhaps a win in his homeland will rejuvenate him and give him some confidence as major season rolls around. His track record is spoty here with three top 15s but also a missed cut and T57. Of the big three, Rory is the one I feel most confident in this week.

Jason Day… His course history speaks for itself here at Muirfield Village. No top 25s in seven tries on his home course. Sure, he’s raised his game to a new level, but he was no slouch to begin with. Only five of his 22 rounds here have been under-par. It’s Jason Day, so of course he COULD figure things out and find the winner’s circle. I’m just not convinced he will make the giant leap, and suspect he’ll finish somewhere in the 10-25 range instead. Obviously that’s not terrible, but I think it’s a good opportunity to zag when others are zigging.

Kevin Chappell… Was pure chalk last week and managed to miss a three-footer to miss the cut. Now he comes to JAck’s Place where he’s finished outside the top 35 in five of six starts. That other start? A runner-up finish. This is a classic “take the guy after he just burned everyone” situation.

Jamie Lovemark… Returning from his debut at Wentworth to now make his debut at the Memorial. The 2016 version of Lovemark is a threat to win anytime he tees it up. Even more so on a venue like Muirfield Village that has six par 4s that I classify as “long par 4s”. He’s right up there with Spieth, Rory, DJ, Day, Matsuyama, Kuchar in scoring on these lengthy par 4s. If he can survive the par 3s then he has a very good shot this week, otherwise we may see him hanging around near the cut line.

Bud Cauley… Playing here for the first time since 2013. He’s 2-for-2 with nothing better than a T34. More importantly his season form is looking like pre-injury Cauley. In his career he owns top 25s in 29 percent of his starts. That was up around 41 percent over his first two seasons as a pro. The talent is legit and the health appears to be just fine.

Byeong Hun An… Speaking of talent, the kid is a scorer. He missed the cut here in his one try (2010) but as you can imagine his game is much improved over that six year period. Don’t let him fly too far under your radar.

Paul Casey… A second-shot course…why not Casey then? He’s one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR and his scrambling is serviceable as well, for the times he just misses. Has posted a pair of top 20s here in five tries. I like him this week as a reliable option.

Soren Kjeldsen… If you want a cheaper version of Bill Haas on DraftKings, Kjeldsen is your man. Like Haas, he doesn’t possess a fantasy friendly game but his ability to reach the top 10 makes his worthy of a few bullets, for those finishing bonuses.

Kevin Na… Recent form is too mediocre to trust, but he owns top 15s in his last two visits here.

Charl Schwartzel… Before last year’s MC, he’d found a top 30 in each of his last five trips to Muirfield Village. Trying to round back into shape before major season, this would be a good spot to grab a sixth stroke-play top 25 of the season.

Kevin Kisner… Showed signs of life last week, posting his first top 10 in ages. It might be just a flash in the pan hot putting week, or it might signal the return of the Kisner we knew and loved in 2015. Early invesotrs can give him a shot this week, but the risk is still there.

Francesco Molinari… He’s basically the Jim Furyk of the European Tour. Fairways and greens, but struggles with the flat stick more often than not. Like Furyk, he’s incredibly steady, and his high fairway percentage should play nicely here at Muirfield Village.

Nathan Holman… The Aussie has raked on the lesser-field events on the European Tour and Australasia. He’s yet to really pop in a PGA TOUR event, but the upside is there. On DK he’s a similar price as guys like Ricky Barnes, Jim Herman, Scott Brown, D.H. Lee, but I’d rather take a shot on Holman.

Tony Finau… The bentgrass/bermuda splits continue to be extreme for Tony. We’re on bentgrass this week which means full steam ahead. He finished T8 in his debut here last year.

Memorial Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Memorial

1. Hideki Matsuyama

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Dustin Johnson

6. Francesco Molinari

7. Patrick Reed

8. Paul Casey

9. Jason Day

10. Rickie Fowler

11. Jamie Lovemark

12. Bubba Watson

13. Chris Kirk

14. Phil Mickelson

15. Tony Finau

16. Danny Lee

17. Charl Schwartzel

18. Kevin Na

19. Rafa Cabrera Bello

20. Byeong Hun An

21. Daniel Berger

22. Russell Knox

23. Bill Haas

24. Kevin Chappell

25. Charles Howell III

BMW PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

With the launch of Euro Tour DFS on DraftKings, I figure now is a great time to start writing about the events.

These previews will be brief, but hopefully outline a few key stats or golfer profiles to target this week.

The course is Wentworth (West Course) and it’s a par 72 that’s just under 7,300 yards. Comparable par/yardage combos on the PGA TOUR would be Silverado CC (Frys), TPC Sawgrass (PLAYERS), and Sheshan Int’l (HSBC). TPC Sawgrass is likely the most relevant comparison, as Wentworth is a precision-based course that is tree-lined and not easily overpowered.

Players to Watch

Francesco Molinari… We just talked about the comparison to TPC Sawgrass, so it’s no surprise to see Molinari as a course horse here at Wentworth. The Italian has three top 10s at THE PLAYERS in six tries. At Wentworth, he’s gained 60 strokes over the field since 2006 (1.676 per round). That includes top 10s in each of the last four editions. Despite his steep salary on DraftKings, this is an easy plug-and-play.

Luke Donald… Wentworth cannot be overpowered and features a lot of bunkers. Donald doesn’t have power and is one of the best bunker players in the World. It also helps that he has local knowledge on his side. It’s no wonder he sports top 10s in six of his last 10 starts here.

Maximilian Kieffer… Stepping out of the course horse spotlight for a second, we have one of my favorite GPPs plays this week. Since he’s start of the 2015 European Tour season, only Byeung Hun An has gained more strokes over the field in Euro events (of golfers in this week’s field). The German missed the cut in his first two appearances here, but snatched a T27 last year. Could find his way into the top 25 this time around.

Byeung Hun An… He lapped the field here in his debut. His key to success? …. “Hitting it straight and hitting it close on the second shot because there are a lot of bunkers out here, especially with the tee ball. Once you get in there, it’s almost like a pot bunker, it’s hard to get it close to the green. The key is to drive it straight first and then you need to have good game all around, tee shots, second shots and even putting.” … Avoid the bunkers off the tee (accuracy).

Alejandro Canizares… Wentworth limits the distance advantage for bombers, which is great for the Spaniard since he’s one of the shorter hitters. He’s grabbed top 10s here in two of his last three starts here. Very juice price tag on DK.

Shane Lowry… Nothing sneaky here, but he loves the layout at Wentworth. Last year he said, “I just think it’s a difficult enough golf course, you need to be quite good off the tee. It’s just somewhere that I love playing, since the first time I came here in 2010, I loved it from the word go. Just something about the place.” For a top-class player to also love the course, that’s a win-win.

Richard Green… This is a high-risk, high-reward GPP flyer. He’s out of form at the moment but owns six top 25s in his last 10 starts here at Wentworth. He’s one of the shorter hitters, and he’s not all that great in an overall talent sense. Instead, this is a course fit play that could suddenly find some form now that he’s on a track that caters to his lack of distance.

Simon Khan… Just like Green, this is a GPP-only, course history play. Khan is a local around here, so this is basically a home game for his every year. No way you should trust him, but we shouldn’t be surprised if he pops again.

BMW PGA Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet!

My Top 25 for the 2016 BMW PGA Championship

1. Francesco Molinari

2. Danny Willett

3. Luke Donald

4. Byeung Hun An

5. Russell Knox

6. Jamie Donaldson

7. Martin Kaymer

8. Chris Wood

9. Shane Lowry

10. Thongchai Jaidee

11. Maximilian Kieffer

12. Ross Fisher

13. Alejandro Canizares

14. Rafa Cabrera Bello

15. Bernd Wiesberger

16. Soren Kjeldsen

17. Lee Westwood

18. Thomas Aiken

19. Andy Sullivan

20. Alexander Levy

21. Marc Warren

22. Tyrrell Hatton

23. Soomin Lee

24. Nathan Holman

25. Miguel Angel Jimenez

DEAN & DELUCA Invitational Fantasy Preview

European Tour is live on DraftKings! What a day/week/month.

The Euro Tour will provide a nice edge in a market where most DK users are coming in blind. I will have more on that later in the week, but for now let’s take a look at this week’s PGA event.

The tournament this week has a new sponsor, but it’s the same ole’ Colonial Country Club that was previously hosted by Crowne Plaza. It’s an Invitational, so the field will be limited, checking in at just over 120 golfers. That means any missed cuts will sting a little more this week since roughly 60 percent of the field will play all four rounds.

Colonial CC is a par 70 “classical” layout, which really just means you can’t spray the ball everywhere and the design of the course doesn’t allow you to grip-it and rip-it. It’s a position-based golf course which means great APPROACH play and/or great PUTTING will likely be the route to the top this week. Relying on the former is the safer route since a great ball-striker can still make the cut with a mediocre putting week, but a golfer that relies on putting will likely miss the cut if his putter is not in tip-top shape during the first two rounds.

Wind is definitely something you want to keep an eye on this week. If you look at the wind speeds over the last five years here, they look like this by round (average MPH): 15-20-15-15-12.5-15-15-15-20-15-15-14… blah, blah, blah. Basically, it’s a calm day around here if the wind doesn’t blow 15 MPH. The weather in general looks pretty ugly (again) with storms forecasted for Thursday AND Friday and a small chance on Saturday, as well. Yuck.

Does course history matter this week? Well, since 2006, 9-of-10 winners had previously secured a top 15 at Colonial before winning and the same number of winners were playing the event for at least the fifth time. Adam Scott ruined both of those trends since he was making his third start at Colonial and his previous best was a 64th-place finish. So, in a nutshell, I want golfers that have flashed some upside at the course OR they need to be world-class like Adam Scott.

Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Jordan Spieth… Last week’s final round couldn’t have played out any better. He was playing on a course he’s admitted to not liking in the past, but he still managed a top 20. The final-round will help push the narrative that “something is wrong with Spieth.” In reality, only five golfers in the field have gained more strokes during the last 10 weeks of PGA TOUR stroke-play events. This week’s course also sets up beautifully for him. His driving was less-than-ideal last week, but this week’s venue will allow him to club down off the tee on many holes. In three trips he’s gone T7-T14-T2. NOT BAD. He’s the only one in the field who have gained 200+ strokes on bentgrass greens since 2013-14 (212 SG:TOTAL). The next closest is at 141. If Spieth doesn’t finish top 10 this week, then the narrative that he’s slumping will really heat up. I think he’s ready to bounce back in a big way, though.

Jim Furyk… Despite his seemingly perfect fit for Colonial CC, he only sports two top 30s in his last seven visits. When he add in his injury concerns, this is probably another good week to keep Furyk exposure to a minimum.

Zach Johnson… Unlike Furyk, ZJ crushes Colonial. He’s the course horse this week, posting top 10s in five of his last seven visits. In 10 career starts he’s finished outside the top 30 just once. I guess you could say this course “fits his eye.” Lock him in.

David Hearn… His results here are way less top-heavy compared to ZJ, but he’s still 4-for-5 with four top 45s. When you consider he’s found form recently, he becomes a very juicy play. A top 10 or 15 might be in the cards.

Kevin Chappell… Speaking of form, nobody is swinger a hotter stick than Chappell (besides Jason Day, of course). Over his last 22 rounds he’s gained 46.21 strokes over the field, that’s up there in Rory-Spieth-Day territory. Obviously that’s unsustainable long-term but I don’t think Colonial is where we see the regression. Chappell has flirted with 59 here before (63 in R3 of 2014) and has top 20s in his last two starts here. He will be very popular this week, but deservingly so.

Ryan Palmer… Member at the course but he also missed the cut last year. I’d still be hard pressed to find 10 golfers this week to put ahead of him if all we wanted was a cut made. Should be just fine this week if you’re looking for a cut made with top-20 upside.

Jason Dufner… Like I mentioned before great approach play and/or putting is the route to success here. Dufner has the approach play down, but it’s always the putter that’s in question. A pair of runner-ups here shows his upside, but all five of his other starts are outside the top 40.

Keegan Bradley… Just missed the cut on a week where he played the role of course horse. Now he’s making his debut at Colonial and everyone will stay very far away from him. If you don’t think you’ll be watching ShotTracker this week, feel free to take a few GPP stabs at him. Otherwise, save yourself the torture, his putting is so out of whack. He’s at the point where he’s marking two-foot putts.

John Huh… The local boy who is way out of form. His course history makes him an interesting GPP play. Has three top 20s in four appearances here.

Danny Lee… Will enjoy sleeping in his own bed for the second straight week. His three visits to Colonial CC have yieled results of T46-T38-T10… Improving each start and now he arrives in much better form. Should find his way into contention again.

Chez Reavie… I was way off the Reavie bandwagon early in the season but I’m on board now that we have some par 70s with bentgrass greens. I dabbled in Reavie last week and he showed up, and I think he can do the same this week. It helps that he owns a pair of top 15s over his last three Colonial starts. That includes rounds of 62 and 64. In one way that is scary because he needed those really low rounds to get into contention. What happens if he doesn’t rattle one of those off in the first two rounds? On the other hand it shows his upside at this venue.

Charl Schwartzel… Missed the cut in his lone start here (2013) but he reminds me a bit of Brooks last week. Doesn’t have the shiny course resume but he’s just a notch above the field in terms of talent.

Brandt Snedeker… Much like last week, this course should suit but he’s always boom-or-bust. Can’t keep him down two weeks in a row, right?

Bryson DeChambeau… The hype train might officially be out of gas. That being said Colonial has five par 4s under 410 yards and DeChamwow has scored great from this range early in his career. I would say this track fits him much better than the last few he’s played. Might be time to get back in the game because a cut made is likely this week and we saw his upside at the Masters.

Bill Haas… Another less-than-driver course, another Haas week. He makes his living on approach play, so just sit back and enjoy the feast.

Kevin Na… Much like Haas, Na can really attack the greens when distance is not required off the tee. Given his lack of length, he’ll probably be hitting more drivers than the field this week. Top 25s in six of his 10 starts here. That’s six of nine if you exclude his 2004 debut where he didn’t even finish a round before WDing.

DEAN & DELUCA Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 DEAN & DELUCA

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Zach Johnson

4. Adam Scott

5. Bill Haas

6. Chris Kirk

7. Jason Dufner

8. Kevin Chappell

9. Ryan Palmer

10. Charley Hoffman

11. Danny Lee

12. Kevin Na

13. Patrick Reed

14. Charl Schwartzel

15. Brandt Snedeker

16. Jim Furyk

17. David Toms

18. David Hearn

19. Adam Hadwin

20. Chez Reavie

21. Bryce Molder

22. Louis Oosthuizen

23. Patton Kizzire

24. Harris English

25. Emiliano Grillo

AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview

Another week, another course that got pushed to its limits. I talked about how Quail Hollow let their green speeds get away from them because they knew they were ripping them up after the week, and the same story was true last week. After two days of soft and easy conditions, they decided they had enough and set the greens to glass table setting. All they did there was artificially raise the scoring average but it did not actually let the cream rise to the top, unless you think Ken Duke is elite.

At the end of the Day, Jason played the best golf for the remaining three rounds and earned a mighty impressive victory. He continues to shine on less-than-driver courses, proving that his distance is really not his ultimate weapon, it’s his short game.

Moving onto this week, we head to DallasIrving for the AT&T Byron Nelson. The course is TPC Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas at Las Colinas. What a short name! What we need to know about the track is that it’s a par 70 (unlike a lot of the recent par 72s) and features some of the hardest-to-hit fairways (54 percent average since 2010). This means that bombers will be at a slight advantage (might as well be farther down the hole in the rough if everyone will be hitting from the thick stuff). At the same time, extremely accurate hitters who can still find a way to strip 70%+ fairways will be sitting pretty as well. If you’re medium length off the tee, and also inaccurate, good luck.

We also head back to bentgrass greens, after playing on mostly bermuda over the past few months. Wind is usually a factor here and the forecast also calls for T-storms on Thursday, as of now. Keep an eye on that. It should be nothing like last year, though, when the course was actually turned into a par 69 due to flooding and preferred lies were used in all four rounds.

Take a look at the Byron Nelson Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Dustin Johnson… His last five starts here read T8-T7-T20-T7-T4, that’s juicy. He’s a proven winner, a proven top-10 machine, and his length can really come in handy around Las Colinas (unlike TPC Sawgrass last week). Recently I’ve started to re-evaluate my GPP process on DraftKings. In the past, I’ve spread myself too thin and that leaves me with low risk but also less upside potential. This week I want to change that, and will make sure I have at least 50 percent of DJ, as he’s my lead dog this week.

Jordan Spieth… He’s the class of the field, but he’s coming off a missed cut and has said in the past this course doesn’t fit his style of play. I wonder if this course was in a different city (not near his home), and not sponsored by AT&T, if Spieth would actually show up here. No need to wonder, the answer is very likely no. On paper, he should be the favorite because of his raw skill, but if he’s lacking the confidence at this venue, we may have to slide him down the totem pole a bit.

Marc Leishman… He’s one of the best on short par 3s, so it’s no coincidence he excels here. Three of the four par 3s come in under 200 yards. Surviving the par 3s is always crucial week-to-week, especially on a par 70 track where there are less eagle opportunities. If the Aussie finds himself near the top in par-3 scoring this week then he just needs to play the par 4s and par 5s slightly above field average. Should be good for cash games this week and even a great One-and-Done option.

Sergio Garcia… Fresh off a five-putt at last week’s PLAYERS where he was a course horse. If he just sinks that first putt, he’s got four strokes taken off his score (vaulting him up to T35). And that doesn’t even factor in the DGAF mode that resulted from the five-putt. He was a major letdown when all was said and done last week, but I’m not putting too much stock into it since most of the damage was done on that one hole. Should be able to bounce back on these greens that run 11 feet on the stimp. No five-putts this week.

Graham DeLaet… Another golfer that should benefit from these pedestrian green speeds. Always an elite ball-striker and great top-10 strike rate. If these greens can minimize the damage with his putter, he should rise toward the top.

Brendon Todd… Talk about a slump! He owns one top 50 in 19 tries this season. This could be the course to break that slump. It’s not like his course history is stellar here, but a win and a T17 should give him confidence entering the week. It’s a par 70 track with tough-to-hit fairways and bentgrass greens… All up his alley. YOU CANNOT IGNORE THAT TERRIBLE FORM, but you can take a few shots in GPPs.

Jason Dufner… Top 10s in three of his last five trips here. That includes his 2012 win. He’s been quiet recently, but this is a good week to hop back on the ball-striking train.

Keegan Bradley… Can’t mention Dufner without talking about his good pal, Keegan. Bradley won here in his 2011 debut, defended with a T24 and backed that up with a runner-up finish in 2013. Hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in five tries. He split with longtime caddie last week and posted a T35 in his first start, post-Pepsi. Courtesy of @TOURJunkies on Twitter, he’ll have Webb’s usually man Paul Tesori on his bag this week. Tesori has plenty of experience with reading putts for ex-long putters who now struggle with the flat stick. Perhaps he’ll bring a tip or two that catapults Bradley back into relevance. I’m going along for the ride. #TeamCourseHistory

John Huh… The Dallas resident has a pair of top 20s at this event. #LocalKnowledge.

Danny Lee… Read the excerpt for John Huh above but insert Lee’s name and replace Dallas with Irving. #LocalKnowledge

Tony Finau… Anytime we get away from Bermuda country, I put Finau back on my radar. His length off the tee should help this week even if it’s just used to circle birdies at the par 4s instead of par 5 eagles since this is just a par 70. This will be my first time using Tony since the Puerto Rico Open.

Brooks Koepka… Looks like a bargain on DraftKings. He’s priced below guys like Charley Hoffman, Louis Oosthuizen, Zach Johnson, and Charl Schwartzel. I would take Koepka and his fantasy-friendly game over all of those guys.

Brandt Snedeker… He’s not the safest of plays, but you won’t find many in the field with a higher winning rate. If you’re looking for the BOOM, and also willing to handle a potential BUST, Sneds is your man.

Ryan Palmer… Statistically he’s better on bermuda, but his local knowledge trumps that here. He’s got club affiliation with Colonial, Vaquero, and Royal Oaks… all three courses are within 45 minutes of Las Colinas.

Will Wilcox… He’s a TURE LEGEND after dropping that ace on the island green at TPC Sawgrass. His game is real close to popping (T15 at Zurich and 68-71 last week before the absurd greens wrecked havoc on his weekend). Better yet, I have him rated out as sixth best in the field on these par 4s. Considering there are 12 par 4s on the docket, I like his chances to snag a top 30 as long as he can survive the par 3s and 5s.

Byron Nelson Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Byron Nelson

1. Dustin Johnson

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Brooks Koepka

4. Marc Leishman

5. Sergio Garcia

6. Charley Hoffman

7. Scott Piercy

8. Jordan Spieth

9. Keegan Bradley

10. Ryan Palmer

11. Tony Finau

12. Brandt Snedeker

13. Charl Schwartzel

14. Gary Woodland

15. Charles Howell III

16. Zach Johnson

17. Graham DeLaet

18. Jason Dufner

19. Louis Oosthuizen

20. Danny Lee

21. Jerry Kelly

22. Will Wilcox

23. David Toms

24. Jimmy Walker

25. Russell Henley

THE PLAYERS Fantasy Preview

Happy PLAYERS week! This is one of my favorite tournaments of the year for fantasy purposes. The course layout lends itself to more of the course strategist as it’s less geared toward the bombers.

Before we talk about this week, what about last week’s Wells Fargo? James Hahn, Andrew Loupe, and Roberto Castro all finish inside the top 5. It was a bit of chaos and all stemmed from how Quail Hollow set up their greens. Despite the course getting drenched with water leading up to the event, they used the sub-air system to (over)dry out the greens, and boy did they get quick! Despite them being listed at 11.5 on the fact sheet, they were running at 13 last week, and we saw a lot of course horses look confused as they played on Thursday.

It also lead to incredibly low GIR percentages (57.9%) which is six percent lower than the six-year average leading into the week. If you watched the event at all, you probably noticed all the balls that landed near the hole and then just proceed to roll to the edge (or off the green). It really turned the event into a short-game competition which is not what we usually see at Quail Hollow. With the greens getting ripped out immediately after the tournament (to get ready for next year’s PGA), they were able to do whatever they wanted with the greens without fear of long-term repercussions.

The course this week is the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. Unnlike last week, it’s not gearing up for a major championship after this week, so we should expect the usual course conditions. It’s a par 72 but really not suited to the bombers. Many of the tee shots force driver out of hand, and it becomes a position golf course. You’ll notice past quotes by Bubba Watson and/or Dustin Johnson that talk about them keeping driver in their hand. Then you look at their track record here (Zero top 30s in 15 combined starts) and you immediately see they gain zero edge by keeping that driver in their hand. They should probably rethink their approach.

The greens are small, so scrambling can become pivotal unless a golfer gets in the zone. Most importantly, experience is key around these parts. Each of the past 10 winners had all recorded at least one top 20 at THE PLAYERS prior to their victory (six of them had a previous podium finish at TPC Sawgrass). Nine of those 10 winners had played the event at least five times before winning (Stenson was making his fourth PLAYERS appearance when he won). I’m not suggestive that a first-timer can’t contend, but history suggests they won’t be lifting the trophy by week’s end.

Take a look at the THE PLAYERS Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Hideki Mastsuyama… He’s finished T23 and T17 in his first two appearances at TPC Sawgrass. It’s a natural fit given his tremendous approach game. I could see him adding a PLAYERS trophy to his case before his career is over. Might be a little early this week, but I really think he should shine here.

Rory McIlroy… He finished strong on Sunday at Quail Hollow. Now he heads into a course that will limit him a bit off the tee. In 2014 he said, “I feel like I figured this golf course out and I can play it much better than I have been able to in the past. It doesn’t frustrate me quite as much as it used to. You know you’re coming here and you’re expecting to hit fairway woods off tees and irons and trying to position your ball.” First, this is promising as he’s posted top 10s here each of the past three years. At the same time, he said “doesn’t frustrate me QUITE AS MUCH”… meaning the golf course still frustrates him. He’s got the talent to win anywhere, but if he gets it done here it’ll be similar to Phil where years later he’ll be saying “I can’t believe I’ve won here.”

Henrik Stenson… His incredible cut-making streak is over, but TPC Sawgrass is one of his favorite tracks, so I’m expecting a big bounce back.

Sergio Garcia… He’s a course horse. His form could be better, but you can’t ignore eight top 15s in 16 trips to TPC Sawgrass.

Bill Haas… He loves any track that takes driver out of your hand and demands good golf shots. With distance out of the equation, he’s on a level playing field and is usually able to pull ahead with great approach and short-game play. In fact, he’s finished top 20 in eight of his last 10 starts on less-than-driver courses.

Bubba Watson… I already mentioned the lack of success here for Bubba and DJ. I don’t see a turnaround for DJ, but Bubba looks like he’s close to figuring out TPC Sawgrass. Each of his last three visits he’s beat the field average by 2 or more strokes during two of his four rounds on the week. Read that two or three times if it doesn’t make sense at first. He’s giving them all back during the other two rounds. If he manages to avoid the BIG round, he should finally crack the top 30 here. I don’t see a win coming this week, but he could be a low-owned GPP play that ends up giving you a couple eagles and cracks the top 20.

Martin Kaymer… He’s the opposite of Bubba, a course horse that has a win and two other top 20s in seven tries. You know I love course history more than most, but other than his course history, there is nothing that screams PLAY ME. That means he may truly be the opposite of Bubba in that he’ll be highly owned in GPPs, and a possible fade candidate because of that. We will need to wait and see what the “tout level” is for him this week. I will love him if he’s going to be low owned, but I don’t want to jump in on him at DraftKings if he’s 20 percent owned.

Byeong-Hun An… Lost in a playoff just two weeks ago (another Pete Dye track). He missed the cut last week after a quick turn around. I’m not ready to give up on him yet, and I think last week’s missed cut is actually better for him than say, a mediocre top 30 finish would have been. It gave him some time to regroup, head home to Florida to prep for this week. An played here in Junior Golf, so it won’t be completely foreign to him. One of my favorite GPP plays this week on DraftKings, and hope that he goes under-the-radar due to the stacked field.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… Another Euro that I could see going well in his PLAYERS debut. Still in great form, posting top 20s in seven of his last eight stroke-play events worldwide. Don’t overlook him this week.

Zach Johnson… Fellow PXG’er James Hahn finally broke the seal for #TeamPXG last week. I’m not suggesting that will have anything to do with ZJ this week, but Johnson loves this layout and he’s proved it by finishing outside the top 35 just twice in 11 tries.

Billy Horschel… Another PXG golfer. I guess you could build a PXG team this week and be alright. Horschel gets his advantage from being local (and also being a world class ball-striker). It’s funny to read interviews with Horschel here in the past because he’s basically over TPC Sawgrass except for the PLAYERS. He claims it’s too crowded now and he longer practices here. That being said, he’s played here hundreds of times in his lifetime and that kind of course knowledge is always helpful.

Russell Knox… A Jacksonville guy who just plasters greens. He debuted with a T34 here in 2014 and improved to a T17 last year. It’s a great fit for Knox, and will all come down to the flat stick for him.

Harold Varner III… Another local, HV3 gets to play back-to-back home games!? Lucky, he’s starting to approach Phil status who calls half the events on the West Coast his home games. HV3 will have way more course experience than a traditional first-timer but I’m not sure the course will fit him that well. He should feast on the par 5s, but the par 4s will take his distance advantage out of the equation and he can’t exactly lean on his putter (174th in SGP). On the flip side you could say his familiarity with the course could help him the most on the greens… Hmmmmm, interesting decision to make here and I could be swayed either way by the time I put my lineups in.

Kevin Na… Has three top 10s here but also four missed cuts. Because the missed cuts all came in 2011 or before, I’m willing to forgive those a bit. Also, put together a T4 at a very similar Harbour Town track in his last start… So that’s nice.

Jim Furyk… A good layout for Jimmy? Sure. Still worried about fatigue as he gets back into grind mode? Yes. Before last week he wasn’t playing rounds on back-to-back days let alone four straight days. I had zero Furyk exposure last week and will inch it up a bit this week, but still 5 percent or less until he proves he’s back in PGA TOUR playing condition.

PLAYERS Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 PLAYERS Championship

1. Hideki Matsuyama

2. Henrik Stenson

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Jordan Spieth

5. Zach Johnson

6. Rory Mcilroy

7. Jason Day

8. Rickie Fowler

9. Kevin Na

10. Bill Haas

11. Matt Kuchar

12. Francesco Molinari

13. Russell Knox

14. Luke Donald

15. Byeong-Hun An

16. Justin Rose

17. Branden Grace

18. Adam Scott

19. Marc Leishman

20. Billy Horschel

21. Patrick Reed

22. Charley Hoffman

23. Jimmy Walker

24. Chris Kirk

25. Rafa Cabrera Bello

Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview

After a weather-shortened week in NOLA, it’s nice to see a clear forecast in Charlotte for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship.

The course is Quail Hollow Club and it’s really suited to the bombers as a par 72 playing to 7,575 yards on the scorecard. It’s going to play host of the 99th PGA Championship in 2017, so you know it’s a world-class venue. There are a plethora of changes set to be made to the course including a switch from Mini Verde bermuda to Champion bermuda, but those won’t take place until after this week’s festivities.

Speaking of putting surfaces, you may recall Quail Hollow played host in Derek Ernst’s 2013 victory when the greens were an absolute disaster. They’ve since changed from bentgrass to bermuda to help battle mother nature.

The greens really play a small part here, anyway, because it’s a bomber’s paradise where distance is rewarded and surviving on the greens is all it takes (The greens are incredibly difficult to putt for everyone). Looking at the past 10 winners, eight of them finished the week with a higher-than-field-average driving distance. Looking all all of the top-5 finishers during that 10-year stretch, only 25 percent of them posted a driving distance less than the field average that week. BOMBS AWAY!

We don’t need to target the longest of long hitters this week (although that doesn’t hurt), we DO want to focus on golfers that are at least longer than TOUR average. The only two winners that finished less than the field average in DD the week they won were Jim Furyk and Lucas Glover. Furyk gained 8.74 strokes putting that week and Glover gain 10.626 strokes with the putter! That’s not a typo, Mr. Three Putt Glover had a monster week on the greens when he won here back in 2011. Basically if you’re not long off the tee, you need to have the week of your life with the flat stick.

In a slightly similar statistic, all of the past 10 winners finished higher than the field average in Par 5 Going for the Green. That means AGGRESSION is preferred around this venue. NO LAYING UP. Golfers that enter the week high in Par 5 GFG or Going for the Green, in general, should get a nice boost as well.

Take a look at the Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… He’s the defending champ and he won in going-away fashion with Patrick Rodgers and Webb Simpson both seven strokes back. He also won in his 2010 debut, so he’s conquered the bentgrass and bermuda so it’s clearly not the green surface that he’s taking advantage of. He’s crushing it tee-to-green and should do so again this week. Lock him in.

Patrick Rodgers… Like I just mentioned, Rodgers found a runner-up finish last year but he will still seven strokes from forcing a playoff. Regardless, it was the first top 10 of his career and Rodgers loves the layout, claiming it caters to his high draw off the tee. We are now entering the territory where Rodgers starts to know some of the courses he tees it up at. Give him a strong look this week.

Rickie Fowler… Really just hung around at Zurich last week on his way to a T20. Now he returns to a venue where he’s won and posted two other top 20s. The slight problem… All three of those happened before the course switched to bermuda. If you follow along with the Fantasy Golfanac data, we know that Fowler is a bentgrass specialist. That being said, he’s still won on bermuda (PLAYERS) and this course is fantastic for him, tee-to-green. If you put a lot of stock into the green complexes this week, then Fowler could be a possible fade. Personally, I still think he’s got a nice finish in him this week and his eagle potential is always fantasy friendly.

Webb Simpson… Bent or Bermuda, it don’t matter for Simpson. Webb knows everything about Quail Hollow since he’s a member here. His two missed cuts here (2009, 2010) came before his membership so the course knowledge has resulted in drastic improvements here. His distance is really borderline as whether he’s long enough, but his course knowledge makes up for that and makes him a great play.

Henrik Stenson… Unlike Webb, Stenson has no record of success here at Quail Hollow. I’m sure many will claim “Stenson is a different golfer, those results don’t mean as much.” Sometimes that is true but lets look at his form historically entering this event.

2015 = Six straight top 25s… T58 at Quail Hollow

2013 = Three straight top 20s … MC at Quail Hollow

2012 = Top 20s in 4-of-6 starts … MC at Quail Hollow

2011 = Out of Form … MC at Quail Hollow

2007 = Three straight top 25s … MC at Quail Hollow

It doesn’t matter how well he is playing entering the week, Quail Hollow always seems to slap the Swede in the face. If you play him this week you are really hoping that the sixth time is the charm (which is might be) but the odds are really stacked against you. Easy FADE for me.

Adam Scott… If you look at his recent history at Quail Hollow you may think he’s a similar fade to Stenson but let’s look deeper again. Last year he missed the cut, but we know he was struggling all year. In 2010 he missed the cut here, but he’d posted ZERO top 10s in six starts leading in. In 2009 he entered with three straight missed cuts and also missed the cut at Quail Hollow. Before that, he was 4-for-4 at this event with four top 25s. While Stenson is an easy fade, Scott makes for a nice contrarian option as his ownership may be lower than it should be this week.

Bryson DeChambeau… It will be interesting to see his ownership this week on DraftKings. He was ALL THE RAGE before his missed cut in San Antonio. I think it’s a great opportunity to jump right back on the horse. His salary is $7,800 this week, I was hoping for a bit higher so people would have to really think hard about the missed cut. This price point makes him easy to roster. Very easy.

Phil Mickelson… Also disappointed in his last start, and also the start before that. Fear not, because he loves this track. He’s third on the career money list at the Wells Fargo Championship and said this about the layout, “I haven’t won here where I really have — it’s such a perfectly suited golf course for me that here at Quail Hollow that that’s kind of the irony of the situation.” Lefty knows he will miss a lot of fairways here, but he also feels confident in his ability to recover after errant tee shots. If Phil is confident, then I’m confident. Load him back up.

Lucas Glover… In the intro I already mentioned his absurd putting performance here when he won. If you follow Glover closely, then you know just how poor of a putter he is, making it that much crazier. It’s not just a case of one or two good rounds padding his course history, though. In 12 starts here, he is 9-for-12 with four top 10s. Last week I dabbled in Glover and think he’s worth another shot this week.

J.B. Holmes… Another bomber with a good tracker record here. He’s never the safest option to sneak through the cut, but a top 25 is usually in the cards when he does. Great for GPP lineups on DraftKings.

Geoff Ogilvy… IF you want to spin the course history roulette wheel, Ogilvy is your man. He arrives in terrible form but top 30s in eight of his 11 starts here at Quail Hollow. In fact, his worst finish is a T38. Despite a 4-for-13 record on the season with nothing better than a T46, I will give him a whirl in some GPPs. #TeamCourseHistory

Gary Woodland… Back with Butch for about a month now. After their split he failed to win but he improved his game statistically. The fact that he’s gone back to Butch lets us know that he wants that mental edge back as he looks to get back in the winner’s circle. Back-to-back top 20s at Quail Hollow as well, so he could find that circle rather soon.

Daniel Berger… He’s playing some consistent golf which is great considering the terrible run of form he displayed toward the middle of last season. He finished T28 in his debut last year and I’m expecting an improvement this year.

Ollie Schniederjans… The hype train left the station a bit too early last season. The man with no hat couldn’t live up to the hype after a T12-T22-T15 run starting at the Open Championship. Now he’s rattled off three straight top 15s on the Web.com Tour which is obviously inferior competition but it lets us know that he’s getting acclimated to professional golf and may be ready to pop. I’m expecting a top 40 this week but the upside for a first career PGA TOUR top 10 is there.

Jim Furyk… The legendary par-maker returns from injury this week. Quail Hollow is a course he’s previously won at, but he needed a career week on the greens to do so. With him returning from injury and facing a course that caters to bombers and can eat you up if you’re not precise with your long irons, I think I’ll pass this week.

Wells Fargo Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Phil Mickelson

3. Justin Rose

4. Rickie Fowler

5. Hideki Matsuyama

6. Gary Woodland

7. Webb Simpson

8. Daniel Berger

9. Dustin Johnson

10. Adam Scott

11. Paul Casey

12. Bryson DeChambeau

13. Charles Howell III

14. Patrick Rodgers

15. J.B. Holmes

16. Patrick Reed

17. Smylie Kaufman

18. Bill Haas

19. Brendan Steele

20. Byeong-Hun An

21. Kevin Chappell

22. Justin Thomas

23. Lucas Glover

24. Patton Kizzire

25. Kevin Streelman

Zurich Classic Fantasy Preview

Prep your cajun meal plan and gather some beads… It’s time for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans!

The course is TPC Louisiana which is a par 72 that stretches out to 7,425 yards. There are a lot of short par 4s on the course but there isn’t much advantage to Going for the Green on these. For that reason, many golfers club down on four or five holes, eliminating the need for driving distance on those holes. However, the par 5s are two-shot holes, especially for the bombers, so driving distance becomes important again. Basically, bombers AND plodders can succeed here. Sounds like a typical Pete Dye Design to me.

Six of the last 12 rounds here have been played with Lift, Clean, and Place due to rain and weather could play a factor yet again this week. Check the forecast because rain and wind could certainly be in the cards again.

Take a look at the Zurich Classic Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Jason Day… A golf ambassador for Zurich, so we know why he is here. That won’t stop him from contending though as he led after day two last year and co-led after round three. If you fade the Aussie you’re really just getting too cute. He’s feasts on Pete Dye tracks as well, so no issues there.

Justin Rose… Like Day, he’s the class of the field and another Zurich ambassador. Makes for a good play in any format. He reached 22-under in his victory last year so we know he can handle shootout conditions.

Rickie Fowler… Insert same message you just read for Day and Rose but take it down one or two notches. He’s posted a lot of mediocrity here at the Zurich (MC-MC-T32-T10-T26) and is fresh off #SB2K16, his body likely needs some time to re-coup from that week-long fiesta. Most gamers will lump him in with Day and Rose but he deserves lower expectations for the reasons just stated.

Smylie Kaufman… After winning the MVP at #SB2K16, how will he bounce back? Based on his local knowledge and great play this season, a top 15 should be in his future. Can’t rule out a hangover though, literally.

Charley Hoffman… Mister Valero Course History paid off big time last week, can he keep it rolling? Well, six of his last 17 rounds at TPC Louisiana have bested the field average by two or more strokes. That’s a pretty good ratio, meaning we may get a little encore after all.

Billy Horschel… He’s a past champ at TPC Louisiana but let’s dig a little deeper. He arrived at the 2013 Zurich on the heels of three straight top 10s, banging on that winner’s circle. He went on to beat the field by four of more strokes in three of the four rounds to secure his first career victory. If you exclude that week where he arrived in the finest of form, his strokes gained per round at TPC Louisiana is +3.719 (0.309 per round) and his best round against the field in those 12 rounds is +1.934. A decent case of misleading course history. He arrives this year in decent enough form so I could see him crack the top 25, but I’m expected more mediocrity rather than home-run rounds.

Cameron Tringale… Speaking of mediocrity, Tringale is a course horse here but it’s been accomplished by chipping away and grinding out good finishes. He doesn’t have any truly terrible rounds here which is great but his lack of firepower makes him a cash-preferred play on DraftKings.

Scott Langley… Put PXG irons in his bag and immediately contended at last week’s Valero. Sometimes all it takes is a shiny new toy to instill confidence. #ClubChangeNarrative

Steve Stricker… It’s top 15 or bust for Stricker here at TPC Louisiana. In seven starts at the venue he’s posted four top 15s and three missed cuts. His recent play is suggesting he’s close to finding that old spark as he owns top 15s in two of his last three starts entering the week.

D.H. Lee… If you want a course history scrub dart-throw, Lee is your man. He’s 3-for-3 here with a pair of top 35s (T8 in 2013 debut). When you look at the rest of his PGA TOUR history, you start to understand how that makes him a potential “course horse” here.

Jeff Overton… Him and Kip broke up last week after his mid-tourney WD. Sometimes player-caddie relationships just run their course and a golfer needs a fresh start. This is the perfect venue for Overton to work with a blank slate since he’s finished top 20 on four occasions including a couple top 5s. #CaddieNarrative

David Toms … The LSU product is not the best course horse, but he does have the most course experience. This will be the 23rd Zurich start for Toms, his 10th at TPC Louisiana. HE loves the area and always plays well in front of the home crowd. Should be good for a cut made.

Byeong-Hun An… I feel like a broken record with An but he sports one of the top European Tour profiles over the past season. It takes some longer to transition to PGA TOUR events, but the good golf is still in there.

Daniel Berger… Berger coasted to a T6 in his debut last year. He cited that the course reminds him of courses back home in Florida. This is due to the water that is in play on a lot of holes here. The stats say he’s a great play and his affinity toward the course layout is certainly a nice boost.

Erik Compton… This will be the highest you’ll ever see Compton in my rankings. In fact, it’s probably the ONLY time you’ll see him in my rankings. However, you can’t ignore back-to-back top 15s and a stat profile that checks out on all angles this week. Plus the Florida factor that Berger mentioned comes into play here.

Blayne Barber… Sticking to the Florida narrative, Barber also fits the bill. He’s a Florida specialist and also finished T8 in his Zurich debut last year. Check out the Florida Golfanac for more possible darkhorses.

Zurich Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Valero Texas Open

1. Jason Day

2. Justin Rose

3. Daniel Berger

4. Steve Stricker

5. Cameron Tringale

6. Smylie Kaufman

7. Rickie Fowler

8. Patton Kizzire

9. Marc Leishman

10. Charley Hoffman

11. Keegan Bradley

12. Ben Martin

13. David Hearn

14. Charles Howell III

15. Erik Compton

16. David Toms

17. Billy Horschel

18. Gary Woodland

19. Jeff Overton

20. K.J. Choi

21. Byeong-Hun An

22. Luke List

23. Retief Goosen

24. Jamie Donaldson

25. Robert Streb

Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview

This week’s event comes with a new slot on the PGA TOUR schedule, but it looks like weather still wants to play a part. Keep an eye on rain and wind forecasts as we draw nearer to Thursday.

Wind is almost always a factor here, but last year it went overboard. It was the infamous AM-wave event that caused gamers to panic and over-adjust based on weather forecasts for the next two months.

One thing I noticed last year was an increase in golfers going for the green on par 5s. It could have been due to downwind conditions helping, or based on the tournament officials moving up the tee boxes to accommodate the 30+ MPH gusts. Regardless, this stat is still worth reviewing. The TOUR average in going for the green on par 5s is ~49 percent. The five-year average at this event is only 29 percent (Last year 34%). What this tells us is that we have some legitimate three-shot par 5s on this layout. That puts an emphasis on wedge play for all but the longest of hitters in the field.

I guess I skipped over the course introduction. It’s JW Marriott TPC San Antonio, a 7,435 yard par 72 track. It’s one of the hardest non-major courses played on an annual basis. You may know it as the Oaks Course or just TPC San Antonio. The fairways are tough to hit and the greens are right up there with last week’s Harbour Town as the toughest to hit on TOUR. VERY demanding golf course with double bogeys lurking around every corner.

Take a look at the Valero Texas Open Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Charley Hoffman… Mister Waste Management and his green glove just love to tee it up in Texas. We don’t have to look at performance in the entire state, though, let’s just view his past VTO finishes: T11-T11-T3-T13-T2-T13…. Uhhhh, that’s consistency and that’s course history, folks. He’s still Charley, who is known for having one blowup round per tourney, but this week those odds are just a little lower. Jump aboard.

Matt Kuchar… Safety first. Kooch is a top-25 machine. That’s exactly what he’s done at TPC San Antontio too, Four top 25s in four tries.

Daniel Summerhays… Let’s keep knocking out these course horses. Summerhays owns three straight op 10s here in San Antonio. Last year he said “If I could play every event at the Valero Texas Open, in TPC San Antonio, I’d have a pretty high World Ranking because it seems to be pretty good to me.” He doesn’t get the opportunity to play here every week but we get to invest every year when it comes around.

Freddie Jacobson… You know scrambling is a viable option around this course if the Swede sports top 20s in five of his six starts. He’s not an automatic-home run but a top 50 should be in the cards.

Bryson DeChambeau… The hype train is in full gear. On one hand he’s shown no signs of this being unrepeatable. On the other hand, Augusta National, Harbour Town GL, and TPC San Antonio are all pretty different style of courses. The oddsmakers are playing into the hype and pricing him at 30/1, meaning he’s a hefty price on DraftKings. The chalky move is to keep riding the train while the contrarian move would be to jump off before the derailment. Determining your stance on ShamBo Jackson could make a world of difference by week’s end. Choose wisely.

Jason Kokrak… Top 20s in three of his last six starts and also top 20s in two of his four starts at TPC San Antonio. He’s trending toward that first PGA TOUR title, why not this week?

Aaron Baddeley… Has the upside, course history, and current form. The problem is his downside, he’s never consistent and his ball-striking can get him in trouble quickly. If he avoids the big numbers then he could crack a top 20. Of course he could also swallow a quad-bogey in round one and slam his trunk real early. Definitely a GPP-only play on DraftKings.

Keegan Bradley… The past major champion is really in panic mode, as he’s committing to events he’s skipped in years past. On the bright side, he knows he’s a tier above most of this field when he’s at his best. Unfortunately, his putter is not allowing him anywhere near that potential. The best you can do here is hope for a field-average putting week and for him to grab a top 15.

Brendan Steele… He’s really out of form lately, but this course has been kind to him, including the 2011 victory. A month ago I would have suggested him in cash lineups, but his current form allots him to GPP status.

Luke Donald… Donald Week was a success, but don’t get carried away in San Antonio. This course has a bit more length than the Englishman can chew. That being said, we’ve seen the Junkman Jacobson succeed here via scrambling, which may turn out alright for Donald as well.

Brandt Snedeker… Really didn’t care for him last week but I like the fact that he’s coming off a missed cut. He’s always a boom-or-bust option, so I would rather get on that potential boom train when the ownership is lower.

Kelly Kraft… This is really just a GPP flyer. Has almost identical Web.com resumes as golfers like Burgoon and Si Woo Kim. While those guys have been making waves, Kraft has not made any splashes and will be owned by NOBODY. Except all you lads reading this. Luckily, he’s also a Texas boy so local knowledge can’t be ruled out either.

Henrik Norlander… While Kraft is similar to Burgoonie or Si Woo, Norlander profiles out even better based on Web.com performance. He’s 6-for-10 to start the season, but nothing better than a T39. I’m not saying to get carried away with the Swede, but he’s definitely someone to consider sprinkling into a few GPPs. The upside is there.

Bronson Burgoon… His price just never goes up. I’ve been one of his biggest fans early in the season, but I’m a bit alarmed this week. He’s only lost strokes to the field in seven of his 14 PGA TOUR starts this season. Unfortunately he’s lost strokes to the field in ALL SIX starts played on courses with tough-to-hit fairways. Burgoon has local knowledge on his side, but I’m going to have to pass this time.

Brooks Koepka… Will need to wait to see how the week plays out in terms of expected ownership. However, if it looks like Koepka is getting overlooked, then up your exposure! He’s a self-admitted lover of hard courses and his length off the tee certainly won’t hurt on this 7,400+ yard layout.

Valero Texas Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Valero Texas Open

1. Charley Hoffman

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Jimmy Walker

4. Brooks Koepka

5. Jason Kokrak

6. Phil Mickelson

7. Daniel Summerhays

8. Ryan Palmer

9. Cameron Tringale

10. Bryson DeChambeau

11. Zach Johnson

12. Branden Grace

13. Patrick Reed

14. Luke Donald

15. Brandt Snedeker

16. Billy Horschel

17. Freddie Jacobson

18. Brendan Steele

19. Jerry Kelly

20. John Senden

21. Chris Kirk

22. Patrick Rodgers

23. Keegan Bradley

24. George McNeill

25. Luke List

RBC Heritage Fantasy Preview

Once again the Masters does not disappoint. Well, it was disappointing in the sense that Spieth blew that massive lead, but the drama was top-notch. Just like the golfers do this week, let’s use the RBC Heritage to unwind and play with a little less pressure on the line.

The course is Harbour Town Golf Links and it’s a real doozy. It’s only 7,100 yards but this seaside track is a beast when the wind picks up (which it often does on Hilton Head Island). Speaking of length, a golfer could legitimately forget their driver this week and still contend.

Unlike last week’s Augusta National, this venue does not allow you to grip-it-and-rip-it. All about positioning off the tee, whether it’s hitting the center of the fairway or missing on the proper side of the fairways, accuracy will be important, unlike most weeks.

The greens are fresh this year, which seems to be a trend we’ve had all year. That means the tiny greens that are typically known as tough-to-hit, will likely be even more tough this year. That means an emphasis on scrambling is probably a good route to take.

Since this course is a bit unusual for PGA TOUR standards (shorter, distance not required), I would lean more on course history and course fit rather than current form entering the week.

Take a look at the RBC Heritage Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Paul Casey… If this were a major championship being played on this venue with this field, Jason Day would have to be the odds-on favorite. It’s not a major, though, and Day is really committed to this field to appease his sponsors. That makes it tough to fully get on board, but Paul Casey is playing superb golf, has three top 25s here in three visits and could really use a PGA TOUR win since he’s gone without one since the 2009 Shell Houston Open.

Matt Kuchar… He’s not playing his best golf this season but he came to play last week on a course he’s taken to in the past (T24 at last week’s Masters). His course history is even better here so I fully expect another top 25 with winning upside.

Luke Donald… While we’re on course history, we can’t ignore this Englishman. He’s hit a rough patch in his career to say the least, but his love for Harbour Town Golf Links remains constant. He sports five podium finishes here in 10 starts. If you still have him in One-and-Done leagues, now is the time to use him.

Matthew Fitzpatrick… Going away from course history for a bit, we have another Englishman who should fit this course quite nicely. He doesn’t rely on length and doesn’t have many “blowup” rounds. That could play nicely on a course that requires strategy instead of pure force.

Bryson DeChambeau… Really curious to see how he performs this week. He lived up to the hype at the Masters, but he also played 11 practice rounds at Augusta leading up to the event and studied previous editions rigorously. I don’t think he’s given Harbour Town Golf Links the same focus. Still has the talent to contend and I can already tell he’s going to be one of my favorites over the next few years.

Harris English… Finished T42 at the Masters despite NINE three-jacks. He will gladly return to bermudagrass this week. He also loves tight tracks that require you to shape your shots both ways. BINGO.

Blayne Barber… We out of the Florida Swing, but this might be another Barber week. He’s proven to be a bermuda specialist early in his career and doesn’t mind a little wind. Great sleeper here.

Hiroshi Iwata… The sample is tiny but in 13 rounds played on easy-to-hit fairways, he’s thrashed the field by two or more strokes in seven of those rounds. I guess he likes to play his ball from the short stuff, and that’s what Harbour Town offers. Iwata could post an ugly round but I think he has one or two great rounds in him this week, as well.

Brendan Steele… Only played here once (T21 in 2011) but it could really play nicely to his strengths. Sure his distance is not required around here, but he’s also very accurate for a golfer of his power. He circled 15 birdies in his debut here and I think another 15 should be easy to reach this week.

Jason Dufner… He arrives in poor form but if you built a golf course to suite Duff Daddy, it’d look a lot like Harbour Town. This could be a great spot to rebound.

Webb Simpson… Read the blurb above for Dufner and insert Webb’s name instead.

Bill Haas… One of the best scramblers on TOUR so I’m giving him a nice boost on these tough-to-hit greens. His course history is surprising poor/mediocre but I expect that to change this week.

Bronson Burgoon… Making his first start since getting married. Honeymoon Swag?

Ryan Ruffels… We’ve heard the hype but we’ve yet to see him perform on a shorter track. Much like Fitzpatrick but with a lot less seasoning. Very good upside pick though.

Ben Martin… You can’t ignore Benjamin as we return to bermudagrass. The guy thrives on bermuda and doesn’t mind a good Pete Dye challenge either. In 18 rounds on Dye Designs, he’s gained at least two strokes over the field in NINE of them. HE doesn’t play the consistency role that well, so I would consider him GPP only.

RBC Heritage Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 RBC Heritage

1. Paul Casey

2. Jason Day

3. Matt Kuchar

4. Bill Haas

5. Luke Donald

6. Matthew Fitzpatrick

7. Bryson DeChambeau

8. Brendan Steele

9. Vaughn Taylor

10. Ryan Palmer

11. Kevin Na

12. Branden Grace

13. Justin Thomas

14. Harris English

15. Billy Horschel

16. Francesco Molinari

17. Patton Kizzire

18. Russell Knox

19. Jason Kokrak

20. Kevin Kisner

21. Kevin Chappell

22. Bronson Burgoon

23. Hiroshi Iwata

24. Jamie Lovemark

25. Graeme Mcdowell