AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview
Another week, another course that got pushed to its limits. I talked about how Quail Hollow let their green speeds get away from them because they knew they were ripping them up after the week, and the same story was true last week. After two days of soft and easy conditions, they decided they had enough and set the greens to glass table setting. All they did there was artificially raise the scoring average but it did not actually let the cream rise to the top, unless you think Ken Duke is elite.
At the end of the Day, Jason played the best golf for the remaining three rounds and earned a mighty impressive victory. He continues to shine on less-than-driver courses, proving that his distance is really not his ultimate weapon, it’s his short game.
Moving onto this week, we head to DallasIrving for the AT&T Byron Nelson. The course is TPC Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas at Las Colinas. What a short name! What we need to know about the track is that it’s a par 70 (unlike a lot of the recent par 72s) and features some of the hardest-to-hit fairways (54 percent average since 2010). This means that bombers will be at a slight advantage (might as well be farther down the hole in the rough if everyone will be hitting from the thick stuff). At the same time, extremely accurate hitters who can still find a way to strip 70%+ fairways will be sitting pretty as well. If you’re medium length off the tee, and also inaccurate, good luck.
We also head back to bentgrass greens, after playing on mostly bermuda over the past few months. Wind is usually a factor here and the forecast also calls for T-storms on Thursday, as of now. Keep an eye on that. It should be nothing like last year, though, when the course was actually turned into a par 69 due to flooding and preferred lies were used in all four rounds.
Take a look at the Byron Nelson Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and also golfer quotes.
Players to Watch
Dustin Johnson… His last five starts here read T8-T7-T20-T7-T4, that’s juicy. He’s a proven winner, a proven top-10 machine, and his length can really come in handy around Las Colinas (unlike TPC Sawgrass last week). Recently I’ve started to re-evaluate my GPP process on DraftKings. In the past, I’ve spread myself too thin and that leaves me with low risk but also less upside potential. This week I want to change that, and will make sure I have at least 50 percent of DJ, as he’s my lead dog this week.
Jordan Spieth… He’s the class of the field, but he’s coming off a missed cut and has said in the past this course doesn’t fit his style of play. I wonder if this course was in a different city (not near his home), and not sponsored by AT&T, if Spieth would actually show up here. No need to wonder, the answer is very likely no. On paper, he should be the favorite because of his raw skill, but if he’s lacking the confidence at this venue, we may have to slide him down the totem pole a bit.
Marc Leishman… He’s one of the best on short par 3s, so it’s no coincidence he excels here. Three of the four par 3s come in under 200 yards. Surviving the par 3s is always crucial week-to-week, especially on a par 70 track where there are less eagle opportunities. If the Aussie finds himself near the top in par-3 scoring this week then he just needs to play the par 4s and par 5s slightly above field average. Should be good for cash games this week and even a great One-and-Done option.
Sergio Garcia… Fresh off a five-putt at last week’s PLAYERS where he was a course horse. If he just sinks that first putt, he’s got four strokes taken off his score (vaulting him up to T35). And that doesn’t even factor in the DGAF mode that resulted from the five-putt. He was a major letdown when all was said and done last week, but I’m not putting too much stock into it since most of the damage was done on that one hole. Should be able to bounce back on these greens that run 11 feet on the stimp. No five-putts this week.
Graham DeLaet… Another golfer that should benefit from these pedestrian green speeds. Always an elite ball-striker and great top-10 strike rate. If these greens can minimize the damage with his putter, he should rise toward the top.
Brendon Todd… Talk about a slump! He owns one top 50 in 19 tries this season. This could be the course to break that slump. It’s not like his course history is stellar here, but a win and a T17 should give him confidence entering the week. It’s a par 70 track with tough-to-hit fairways and bentgrass greens… All up his alley. YOU CANNOT IGNORE THAT TERRIBLE FORM, but you can take a few shots in GPPs.
Jason Dufner… Top 10s in three of his last five trips here. That includes his 2012 win. He’s been quiet recently, but this is a good week to hop back on the ball-striking train.
Keegan Bradley… Can’t mention Dufner without talking about his good pal, Keegan. Bradley won here in his 2011 debut, defended with a T24 and backed that up with a runner-up finish in 2013. Hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in five tries. He split with longtime caddie last week and posted a T35 in his first start, post-Pepsi. Courtesy of @TOURJunkies on Twitter, he’ll have Webb’s usually man Paul Tesori on his bag this week. Tesori has plenty of experience with reading putts for ex-long putters who now struggle with the flat stick. Perhaps he’ll bring a tip or two that catapults Bradley back into relevance. I’m going along for the ride. #TeamCourseHistory
John Huh… The Dallas resident has a pair of top 20s at this event. #LocalKnowledge.
Danny Lee… Read the excerpt for John Huh above but insert Lee’s name and replace Dallas with Irving. #LocalKnowledge
Tony Finau… Anytime we get away from Bermuda country, I put Finau back on my radar. His length off the tee should help this week even if it’s just used to circle birdies at the par 4s instead of par 5 eagles since this is just a par 70. This will be my first time using Tony since the Puerto Rico Open.
Brooks Koepka… Looks like a bargain on DraftKings. He’s priced below guys like Charley Hoffman, Louis Oosthuizen, Zach Johnson, and Charl Schwartzel. I would take Koepka and his fantasy-friendly game over all of those guys.
Brandt Snedeker… He’s not the safest of plays, but you won’t find many in the field with a higher winning rate. If you’re looking for the BOOM, and also willing to handle a potential BUST, Sneds is your man.
Ryan Palmer… Statistically he’s better on bermuda, but his local knowledge trumps that here. He’s got club affiliation with Colonial, Vaquero, and Royal Oaks… all three courses are within 45 minutes of Las Colinas.
Will Wilcox… He’s a TURE LEGEND after dropping that ace on the island green at TPC Sawgrass. His game is real close to popping (T15 at Zurich and 68-71 last week before the absurd greens wrecked havoc on his weekend). Better yet, I have him rated out as sixth best in the field on these par 4s. Considering there are 12 par 4s on the docket, I like his chances to snag a top 30 as long as he can survive the par 3s and 5s.
Byron Nelson Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.
My Top 25 for the 2016 Byron Nelson
1. Dustin Johnson
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Brooks Koepka
4. Marc Leishman
5. Sergio Garcia
6. Charley Hoffman
7. Scott Piercy
8. Jordan Spieth
9. Keegan Bradley
10. Ryan Palmer
11. Tony Finau
12. Brandt Snedeker
13. Charl Schwartzel
14. Gary Woodland
15. Charles Howell III
16. Zach Johnson
17. Graham DeLaet
18. Jason Dufner
19. Louis Oosthuizen
20. Danny Lee
21. Jerry Kelly
22. Will Wilcox
23. David Toms
24. Jimmy Walker
25. Russell Henley
