Josh Culp's Blog, page 23

UBS Hong Kong Open Fantasy Preview

With no PGA TOUR action this week, we turn our attention to the Euro Tour where they head to Fanling, Hong Kong, for the UBS Hong Kong Open.

Hong Kong Golf Club is the venue this week. It’s a rare par 70 for the Euro Tour, checking in at just 6,710 yards. That brings the bombers back to an even playing field off the tee, as tight, tree-lined fairways will force golfers to use less-than-driver throughout the round.

The fairways and rough are a bermuda/zoysia mix. You may remember Zoysia popping up in Rio. Perhaps then, it’s not too surprising to see Justin Rose as the defending champ at both venues. There may be a few more golfers we can target with this Zoysia link, but more on that below.

Players to Watch

Thongchai Jaidee… Last week we had Charl Schwartzel as the plug-and-play course horse, this week it’s Jaidee. Looking at his last 32 rounds here at Fanling, he’s beat the field average by 2+ strokes in 20 of those rounds. That has resulted in seven straight top 20s here. You can actually go two years farther and find he’s posted nine straight top 20s at this venue. There is nothing in his form that screams “stay away” so I think that makes him the man to beat this week.

Marcus Fraser… Looking at our Rio Zoysia link, Fraser’s name certainly becomes an interesting one. At the Rio Olympic Games he fired a 63 in the opening round, which turned out to be the co-low round of the week. He’s also enjoyed a heap of success here at Hong Kong GC, grabbing top 15s in five of his last eight visits. On most weeks, he’s playing catch-up off the tee, and relies heavily on his flat stick, but with an extremely short course like this, he’s at an even playing field on the tee box, and that allows his smooth putting stroke to shine.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… If you’re handing out trophies based on who deserves it most, RCB certainly has to be in the running. His 2016 calendar year has been filled with top 20s (15 of them) but he sports no trophies to go along with the stellar play. He also faired well in Rio, posting a T5.

Tommy Fleetwood… If you want to swerve the course history buffs, Fleetwood should be well off their radar as he makes his tournament debut this week. His run of form since August makes him a great option.

Pablo Larrazabal… It’s been a while since the Spaniard has pegged it up at HKGC, but an 8th place and 4 place over his last four visits, certainly showcase his upside. The other two trips resulted in missed cuts, so we know we’re dealing with some volatility here.

Thomas Detry… The former Illini earned a Euro Tour card through his strong play on the Challenge Tour as he wasted no time putting the card to good use, finishing in third place last week at the Alfred Dunhill. He made waves on the internaion stage in August with his 12-shot romp at the Bridgestone Challenge. That went in the books as the largest margin of victory on the Challenge Tour, beating the previous mark of 10 set by BROOKS KOEPKA. I’m not saying he’s the next Koepka, but he does have plenty of pedigree and loads of upside moving forward. Worth a flyer until he cools off, if he ever does. .

Peter Uihlein… Speaking of Koepka and pedigree, Uihlen was supposed to be on the same path as Brooks, and raking in the cash on the PGA TOUR by now. Injuries derailed him last year, and he’s yet to find his bearings since returning. However, he’s found top 25s in 9 of his last 18 starts in Asia, including a T13 here last year. Looking at his current form, it’s easy to avoid him, but I think this is a venue that should allow him to get back into contention.

Jorge Campillo… The Spaniard has teed it up in 13 events using bermudagrass greens since 2015, posting top 25s in seven of those. If he posted that kind of ratio on a regular basis, he’d have the same kind of name recognition as Danny Willett or Thongchai Jaidee. Instead, he’s Jorge Campillo and we reserve the right to invest only on bermuda until he proves otherwise. With bermuda on the greens this week, it could be a week we see Campillo pop.

Angelo Que… Five top 15s in his last nine visits to Hong Kong GC. He’s a course horse that should have low ownership.

Ian Poulter… Has a lot of name recognition and his course history is great. The only problem is that Poulter has looked like a shell of his old self for quite a while now. I do think this is a week where he could throw his name into the mix, but I’m not banking on it. I think a finish in the 15-to-35 range is much more likely.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Hong Kong Open

1. Thongchai Jaidee

2. Rafa Cabrera Bello

3. Patrick Reed

4. Marcus Fraser

5. Tommy Fleetwood

6. Pablo Larrazabal

7. Stephen Gallacher

8. Danny Willett

9. Julien Quesne

10. Mikko Ilonen

11. David Lipsky

12. Gregory Bourdy

13. Peter Uihlein

14. Justin Rose

15. Jorge Campillo

16. Angelo Que

17. Ian Poulter

18. Miguel Angel Jimenez

19. Robert Rock

20. Carlos Pigem

21. Thomas Detry

22. David Drysdale

23. Dylan Frittelli

24. Gregory Havret

25. Chris Hanson

Alfred Dunhill Championship Fantasy Preview

Just a few weeks after the season finale, the 2017 Euro Tour season is ready to kick off with a double header. DraftKings chose to price out the Alfred Dunhill, so that is what I will preview this week.

The course is Leopard Creek Country Club in Malelane, South Africa. It’s been used at this event since the 2005 edition, so course history is certainly something to target this week. It’s a par 72 layout that’s been quite challenging for the players, unless you’re talking about four-time champ Charl Schwartzel. It’s a walk in the park for him. The field average over the last six runnings, though, has been 72.87 (+0.87 strokes over par, per round).

For the sake of handicapping, this is fantastic because harder courses tend to help the better golfers rise to the top and with it being a par-72 layout, we can also target golfers that will likely benefit from the four-pack of par 5s.

Players to Watch

Charl Schwartzel… File this one under no-brainer. Schwartzel is easily the course horse here at Leopard Creek, winning four times and also finishing runner-up four times. Don’t overthink this week, just lock him in.

Branden Grace… The only golfer in the same weight class as Schwartzel this week. If you want to swerve the obvious Charl pick, then Grace is probably your anchor. Given the soft pricing on DK, you can also throw them both on the squad and then go bargain hunting.

Jbe’ Kruger… Jbe’ is a course history pick, posting four top 30s over his last six tries at this event. Two of those were T10s. At $8,100 on DraftKings, I don’t see him as a cash-game staple, but he’s worth a shot if you’re making multiple GPP lineups.

Jacques Kruyswijk… The 24-year-old just cracked the field thanks to a win at last week’s Lion of Africa Cape Town Open. While I have no idea how you actually pronounce his name, I will be rostering him on a few lineups in hopes that last week’s big win will springboard him onto more success. Posted top 30s in 13-of-14 starts on the Sunshine Tour prior to the win, so this wasn’t completely out of the blue. The pedigree looks decent enough to ride the wave the momentum here.

Erik Van Rooyen… Now that I’m a Minnesotan, I have to take this Golden Gopher anytime I have the chance. Has four top 10s over his last seven starts on the Sunshine Tour, but also a pair of missed cuts. I guess we can classify that as boom-or-bust. For sub-$7K, I’m willing to take that risk.

Tjaart Van der Walt… Not getting any younger, but the veteran has a trio of top 20s over his last three visits to Leopard Creek CC. With a T10 at last week’s Sunshine Tour event, his game is in decent enough shape to have a go.

Dylan Frittelli… The Texas Longhorn (pictured above) is cleaning up on the Challenge Tour, winning the Rolex Trophy in August and collecting three top 10s over his last five Challenge Tour starts more recently. Definitely someone to target this week on DraftKings as he sits with a very reasonable $7,700 price tag.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Alfred Dunhill

1. Charl Schwartzel

2. Branden Grace

3. Thomas Aiken

4. Gregory Bourdy

5. Richard Sterne

6. Erik Van Rooyen

7. David Drysdale

8. Scott Jamieson

9. George Coetzee

10. Dylan Frittelli

11. Benjamin Hebert

12. Keith Horne

13. Chris Hanson

14. Tjaart Van der Walt

15. Jacques Kruyswijk

16. Jean Hugo

17. Paul Dunne

18. Dean Burmester

19. Rhys West

20. Graeme Storm

21. Kristoffer Broberg

22. Justin Walters

23. Oliver Bekker

24. Richard McEvoy

25. Eddie Pepperell

Hero World Challenge Fantasy Preview

The Hero World Challenge is an unofficial event in the eyes of the PGA TOUR, but with $3.5 million up for grabs to a field of just 18 golfers, it is quite an easy six-figure paycheck for the elite list of golfers teeing it up this week.

The event benefits a trio of charities including the Tiger Woods Foundation which is why this becomes the site of Tiger’s long-awaited return.

This tournament has been running since 2000 but last year was the first time it was played at Albany in The Bahamas. The course is a par 72 that plays just under 7,300 yards. It’s designed by Ernie Els and often described as an inland desert links course. If you miss the fairway, you aren’t finding rough, you are finding blotchy sand dunes.

The layout is a bit unorthodox as there are five par 5s and five par 3s on the docket. That does explain how the big-hitting Bubba Watson stretched his score out to 25-under-par last year en route to victory. I have the greens listed as TifEagle Bermuda in my spreadsheets but I can’t find a source to confirm that, so please correct me if I had it listed wrong.

Bubba circled 27 birdies and two eagles on his way to the winner’s circle, so DraftKings scoring should be through the roof this week. Looking at more examples from last year, we see Rickie Fowler collected 29 birdies on his way to third place. There were quite a few golfers that picked off 20+ birdies and still finished outside the top 10.

Finding elite par-5 scorers is an easy way to narrow the field down this week. However, if you want to be contrarian then looking for elite par-3 scorers in another route to take on DraftKings. With five par 3s each round, stacking your teams with great par-3 scorers could give you that tiny, tiny, edge in terms of finding the coveted Hole-in-One bonus.

Sticking to DraftKings strategy, it’s important to remember that with just 18 golfers in the field you will need the winner on your team this week. that also means duplicate lineups will be running rampant, so leaving a good chunk of change leftover is a good idea this week, but even then you may run into duplicates.

Browsing for correlated events, I’m going to have a look at the Wells Fargo Championship, The Masters, Valero Texas Open, Trump National Doral, and the WGC-HSBC Champions.

Players to Watch

Brooks Koepka… A runner-up at the Shriners followed by a win at the Dunlop Phoenix (turns out he likes events with Phoenix in the name). Those two results may not seem like much, but when you look in terms of most OWGR points earned per event, those are both inside the top 10 of his career. Matsuyama may be getting all the credit for being the hottest golfer in the planet right now, but Koepka is playing pretty well himself. Is the switch to Taylormade driver and the timing of these results a coincidence? Perhaps. Or maybe it really is a game changer for the big-hitting Koepka. Either way, I like BK to contend this week. He finished 7th here last year despite doubling a par 5 in round 2.

Matt Kuchar… The ultimate safety valve missed the cut in two of his three Fall appearances. One was played without his normal clubs and The RSM Classic was played in the ultimate low-scoring conditions, but they are still missed cuts in the history books. The DraftKings salaries just came out and at $7,000 he’s quite the bargain.

Tiger Woods… What to do about Mister Tiger Woods this week? The Tiger we’ve seen since 2014 is not worth our time in fantasy, but this time he’s given himself an actual rehab period instead of rushing back in order to play in a major. He’s one of just two golfers in the field with property at Albany, and with this being an unofficial event without much media around, this really is the perfect time for a return. Unlike previous returns, I am optimistic about this return. At the same time I would be surprised to see him crack the top 10 (of 18) this week. A finish in the 10-to-15 range is certainly doable, though.

Justin Rose… The other golfer in the field with ties to Albany. It didn’t help him too much last year (13th place) but with 23 birdies and an eagle on his scorecards, he was certainly giving it his all. He had a triple and a double last year, so if he can eliminate those big numbers, then he’s immediately right back in the conversation. The only potential issue is rust since he’s been quite since the BMW Championship.

Dustin Johnson… If this event took place mid-season then he’d probably be the favorite in my book. Instead, he arrives with just one start since the Ryder Cup, a T35 at the no-cut, WGC-HSBC. Much like Rose, potential rust is the only thing holding him back in my eyes.

J.B. Holmes… If we’re looking for boom-or-bust options, I like Holmes. He finished 8th here last year thanks to 27 birdies. He collected 12 birdies on the par 5s but also swallowed a double and a single bogey (9-under on the par 5s for the week).

My Top 18 for the 2016 Hero World Challenge

1. Brooks Koepka

2. Hideki Matsuyama

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Justin Rose

5. Dustin Johnson

6. Henrik Stenson

7. Bubba Watson

8. Patrick Reed

9. Rickie Fowler

10. Matt Kuchar

11. J.B. Holmes

12. Louis Oosthuizen

13. Russell Knox

14. Emiliano Grillo

15. Tiger Woods

16. Zach Johnson

17. Jimmy Walker

18. Brandt Snedeker

DP World Tour Championship Fantasy Preview

Just when you think DraftKings can’t make the GPPs any smaller for Euro Tour, they go and outdo themselves. Hopefully with the PGA TOUR going on break, we’ll see some bigger prize pools in the upcoming weeks, but I’m not holding my breath. DK seems to be killing off golf interest intentionally.

For this week we have the DP World Tour Championship which concludes the 2016 season. I’ve seen the course described as a bomber’s paradise but I’m not seeing the evidence to back that up. Sure, Rory has won twice but guys like Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, and Francesco Molinari also populate the course horse section.

We do have a par 72 on the docket, so bombers may find eagles easier to come by which also helps on DraftKings. Overall, I’m not avoiding shorter hitters, and it may be a good way to differentiate your lineups if you think the big bombers will be highly owned.

Keeping things short this week, I will say Rory McIlroy is the obvious pick but Francesco Molinari is my favorite play of the week. Other than that, Byeong Hun An and Bernd Wiesberger also catch my eye, but you can see for yourself in my Top 25 rankings below.

My Top 25 Rankings for the DP World Tour Championship

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Francesco Molinari

3. Byeong Hun An

4. Bernd Wiesberger

5. Branden Grace

6. Henrik Stenson

7. Thongchai Jaidee

8. Louis Oosthuizen

9. Shane Lowry

10. Martin Kaymer

11. Ross Fisher

12. Alex Noren

13. Chris Wood

14. Tyrrell Hatton

15. Andy Sullivan

16. Charl Schwartzel

17. Sergio Garcia

18. Joost Luiten

19. Nicolas Colsaerts

20. Richard Bland

21. Alejandro Canizares

22. Rafa Cabrera Bello

23. Gregory Bourdy

24. Tommy Fleetwood

25. Thomas Pieters

The RSM Classic Fantasy Preview

After a Pat Perez victory south of the border, the PGA TOUR heads to Georgia (the state, not country) for this week for The RSM Classic.

This event is hosted by Davis Love III and is played at Sea Island Golf Club’s Seaside Course. In order to expand the field they added a second course last year, the Plantation Course. It’s annoying for handicapping purposes but it allows them to host a 156-man field without fear of darkness delays.

With three of the four rounds being played on the Seaside Course, I will be focusing my attention primarily on this coastal, links-style layout. The Seaside Course is a par 70 track with bermuda greens and it checks in at just 7,005 yards (a short course).

While this course is a “links-style” layout, the traditional links specialists don’t tend to find success here. I think a large part is due to the greens (bermuda instead of fescue/bent) in addition to more trees that you would see on a traditional links course. The only common trait that translates is the ability to deal with heavy winds since it’s right on the coast and many of the holes are unguarded by trees.

Since the course is so short, the defense is the wind as well as hazards lurking off the fairway. Golfers can (and likely will) club down to less-than-driver on many of the par 4s. Some fairways are lined with bunkers while some have tall native grasses just off the fairways, ready to gobble up errant tee balls. It’s no picnic off the tee. Add in some marshes and creeks, and penalties are lurking around every corner, much like last week.

For that reason I will be targeting accurate drivers of the golf ball (distance from edge of fairway) as well as scrambling and birdie or better percentage.

Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more information about the course setup and golfer quotes.

The five events or courses I found to be most correlated are the following: Colonial Country Club, CIMB Classic, Wyndham Championship, RBC Heritage, and CareerBuilder Challenge.

I also wouldn’t argue if someone used events like the Sony Open, Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Valero Texas Open, Travelers Championship, or THE PLAYERS as correlated events. The main link between all these are short, accuracy-based courses and some with windy conditions.

Players to Watch

Sea Island Mafia… The Golf Performance Center in Sea Island attracts many golf pros. There are so many that live or train here, they’ve formed a “mafia” which is “led” by Davis Love III. It’s nice if the plays you like this week also happen to be part of the Mafia, but don’t let local knowledge completely decide your plays for you.

Matt Kuchar… If Davis Love III is the boss of the Sea Island Mafia then Matt Kuchar (or Zach Johnson) would probably be the underboss. Playing at home this is an easy event for him to add to the schedule, and he should contend (top 25s in all five trips). At the same time, he’s likely only playing because of the location. His off-season has already started. A very safe pick, but probably won’t win.

Kevin Chappell… Has improved in all four trips to Sea Island Golf Club. Debuted with a T43 in 2012 then T32 in 2014, a T8 in the 2015 edition, and runner-up last year. When asked about his success here last year he had this to say, “Yeah, I think for me it’s the sightlines work. The wind tends to blow out of one direction. There are a lot of things that are comforting to me and allow me to play well.” If Chappell is near the top of your Best Golfers without a Win list, like he is for me, then it’s time to get on board this week. A very good chance to finally cross the finish line.

Charles Howell III… Another piece of the Sea Island Mafia. CH3 primarily lives in Orlando but he’s got a house in St. Simons Island and is a member at Sea Island Golf Club. That local knowledge has paid off in the past with three top 10s here in six tries.

Lucas Glover… The opposite of Tony Finau. With Finau, you play him anytime he’s on bentgrass and avoid on bermuda. Glover recently cracked a top 5 at the Shriners (bentgrass) but that was his only top 25 on bentgrass since 2014. He should be on your radar again this week now that we’re back on bermuda and in a familiar territory (also part of the Sea Island Mafia).

Webb Simpson… Is using the wraparound schedule to play his way back into form (and regain some confidence). He was right in the mix at the OHL Classic last week before fading as the week went on. He’s getting closer to old Webb, and with top 15s in three of his four trips to Sea Island, there is no reason to go away from Webber now.

Russell Henley… Much like G-Mac or Russell Knox, he’s earned the reputation for playing his best golf on windy, coastal tracks. His two PGA TOUR wins have come at the Sony Open and Honda Classic. Both events that deal with a lot of wind. With back-to-back top 10s here, he’s doing nothing to dissuade us from believing that reputation is true.

Michael Johnson… If we start looking for sleepers, then Johnson is one of my favorites this week. The Auburn standout has already posted a pair of top 20s in five PGA TOUR starts. He just finished T2 at the Second Stage of Q-School so his game arrives in good shape. At $6,600 on DraftKings, he’s a nice salary saver.

Blayne Barner… Sticking with Auburn and cheap DraftKings options, Barber definitely fits the bill. He’s missed two of three cuts to open the season, but both missed cuts were away from bermuda greens. It’s still early in his career, but he’s already establishing himself as a bermuda-only guy with a lean toward short, less-than-driver courses. The Seaside Course certainly fits that bill.

Cheng Tsung Pan… C.T. is getting no love by the DraftKings pricing algorithm, but these wraparound fall events continue to fit his style of play. Pan plods his way along and has excellent short game, so he should be a natural fit for this week’s track that is right around 7,000 yards.

J.T. Poston… As a member of Sea Island GC, this is one of the rare weeks he’ll have course knowledge this year. Looking at a consistency metric I keep for the Web.com Tour, he also ranks third among this year’s crop of grads (behind Wesley Bryan and C.T. Pan). The Postman should be delivering birdies all week long.

Anirban Lahiri… He gets credit for being a bomber (largely because he won one of those long-drive competitions that take place before majors) but really his game sets up nicely for shorter, tight tracks as well. Don’t let his reputation as a bomber steer you away this week, he should continue his run of good form.

My Top 25 for the 2017 RSM Classic

1. Kevin Chappell

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Webb Simpson

4. Chris Kirk

5. Russell Henley

6. Bill Haas

7. Kevin Kisner

8. Zach Johnson

9. William McGirt

10. Harris English

11. Charles Howell III

12. Robert Streb

13. Jim Furyk

14. Bryce Molder

15. Kevin Streelman

16. Anirban Lahiri

17. Brian Harman

18. Ben Martin

19. J.T. Poston

20. Billy Horschel

21. Cheng Tsung Pan

22. Wesley Bryan

23. Michael Kim

24. Patton Kizzire

25. Ryan Blaum

Nedbank Golf Challenge Fantasy Preview

This week on the Euro Tour we have a small field, no-cut event on tap in Sun City, South Africa.

The Race to Dubai is winding down, so we have a strong field this week, even with some big names like Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, and Bernd Wiesberger not making the trip.

It’s really too bad we don’t get to see Rory take on this course which stretches out to 7,831 yards! The yardage really starts to add up quickly when you have four par 3s over 200 yards and five par 4s over 470 yards. With altitude eclipsing 3,500 feet it doesn’t play as beastly as you might think as first glance. After all, Luke Donald finished in third place here just a few years ago. Distance will certainly be an advantage, though.

Grass-wise, we have kikuyu grass tee-to-green and bentgrass on the putting surfaces.

Players to Watch

Henrik Stenson… The Swede makes for the obvious choice at the top in this field. His long-iron play should separate him from the field on these lengthy par 3s.

Martin Kaymer… Has done everything but win this year. Should have no problem with the length of this course. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him finally pick off a win.

Branden Grace… Is lacking form but this is the type of home event that could re-spark his game.

Thomas Pieters… Should feast on these par 5s, making him a great DraftKings play.

Nicolas Colsaerts… Much like Pieters, he makes for a great DraftKings play given his length off the tee. The Belgian Bomber should live up to his nickname this week as he makes his way around the 7,800 yard course.

Danny Willett… Is still suffering from the Masters hangover but otherwise a fantastic fit (and GPP play) this week. He is a past champ on this course.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Nedbank Golf Challenge

1. Henrik Stenson

2. Louis Oosthuizen

3. Martin Kaymer

4. Branden Grace

5. Charl Schwartzel

6. Danny Willett

7. Nicolas Colsaerts

8. Thomas Pieters

9. Chris Wood

10. Rafa Cabrera Bello

11. Alex Noren

12. Ross Fisher

13. Thongchai Jaidee

14. Thomas Aiken

15. Tyrrell Hatton

16. Richard Bland

17. Tommy Fleetwood

18. Gregory Bourdy

19. Padraig Harrington

20. Richard Sterne

21. Matthew Fitzpatrick

22. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

23. Andrew Johnston

24. Bradley Dredge

25. Robert Rock

OHL Classic at Mayakoba Fantasy Preview

This week’s OHL Classic is the 10th edition of the tournament, but only the fourth since moving to November.

El Camaleon Golf Club is a short course, clocking in under 7,000 yards. It has played host in all nine previous editions but it’s only become a walk-in-the-park since the move on the calendar. During the six times it was played at the end of February the field averaged 0.329 strokes over par, per round. Since moving, the hardest it’s played is 0.979 strokes UNDER-PAR. I would blame the weather and general course conditions due to the time of year for it’s ease.

With rain in the forecast again this week, I would expect to see very similar scores as the past three editions. It’s a resort course to begin with (on the easier side) and softer conditions generally lead to target practice for these pros.

Most weeks I put my focus on the bombers and par-5 scoring since it’s so heavily rewarded on DraftKings. However, this is one of those courses that really caters to the accurate plodders. Davis Love III said it best a few years when talking about the fairways here, “They’re narrow. There’s a lot of hazards out there, and you have to be very focused off the tee, pick a good target and hit it because you can look at all the trouble and start guiding it.”

If you look at the golf course from above, you’ll see just what DL3 is talking about. The fairways are surrounded by the type of hazards that you don’t recover from. So while some weeks the bombers can grip-it and rip-it and not worry about hitting their second from the rough (since they’ll be so much closer on approach), this week they’ll be forced to take less club and take a penalty or two if their tee balls get away from them. For that reason, I’m putting a big focus on distance from edge of the fairway. Simple driving accuracy works as well.

Other than accuracy, I will also give scrambling a look this week. Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more information about the course setup and golfer quotes.

The five events I found to be most correlated are the following: CIMB Classic, Wynhdam Championship, Honda Classic, RBC Heritage, and Valspar Championship.

Players to Watch

Russell Knox… An accuracy-based track where scrambling is also key? Give me all the Knox you got! Okay, maybe not ALL, but I’d like a nice piece of the Knox pie. He’s finished top 40 in all four trips to Playa del Carmen including a runner-up last year. The only down side is while his “B Game” gives you stability, it also lacks the firepower in terms of birdies and eagles. As the Vegas favorite, we need his A game this week to pay off his salary. On the bright side, his ownership should stay relatively low, because who wants to pay $11,800 for Russell Knox? Okay, now that I read that out loud, maybe this is key decision that needs to be made this week. To Knox, or not to Knox. This one might be based on the industry buzz to determine his expected ownership.

Webb Simpson… He lined up perfectly last week, but settled for a T31. Not terrible, but I was hoping for better. This week he gets another easy course that he should be able to rip apart. Despite the lack of course history, I’m on board.

Wesley Bryan… One of his three Web.com Tour titles last year came at the El Bosque Mexico Championship. He proved his game travels south of the border. If you followed Bryan on the WCT last year, you know he can get in the zone and start peppering flag sticks. This seems like the perfect course to allow his play style to shine. I haven’t jumped on the Bryan train in the past, but I’m ready to ride this week.

Cheng Tsung Pan… Another Web.com grad whose game should fit El Camaleon perfectly. C.T. is the definition of fairways-and-greens. Luckily he doesn’t really sacrifice birdie potential in the process. I like Pan for a safe salary saver on DraftKings.

Luke Donald… If you noticed the list of correlated events I listed, you’ll see the Honda, Valspar, Heritage, and Wyndham. Then go have a look at Donald’s course history at those events. He’s feasted. The only problem is his decline over the years. It leaves him as a par-maker without a lot of scoring potential. I think he’s a great course fit, but we need him to finish top 10 for finishing bonuses, since he’s not the best birdie maker in town.

Fabian Gomez… He relies on his short game to score which should come in handy this week. With a shortened track, he gets a nice boost tee-to-green since many of the big bombers won’t be able to run laps around him. I can’t remember the last time I recommended Gomez but I do see him popping quite a bit this week. The potential is there.

Michael Kim… The problem is still the lack of firepower but for $6,800 on DraftKings, I don’t mind Kim as a nice salary saver. His pedigree suggests he could develop into a winner on the PGA TOUR, so I’d rather take a low risk on Kim than pick on old geezer who will never find the top 15.

Tony Finau… The big man proved last year that distance is not irrelevant entirely here at the OHL Classic. Last year he said this about his play off the tee, “I’m still able to use my length by hitting 3-woods and 2-irons and moving it up the fairway still where most guys would have to hit driver and things. I hit one driver today, so I definitely wasn’t able to use my driver length, but I still use my length off the tee just in different ways.” He also hoisted the trophy at the Puerto Rico Open, another track that uses Paspalum greens.

Emiliano Grillo… Speaking of Paspalum, Grillo has the most events played on Paspalum in the field (since 2014). He’s played nine events while guys like Chris Stroud, Jerry Kelly, Alex Cejka, Jhonattan Vegas, Scott Brown, and Ricky Barnes have played eight. If you’re looking for experience on the green surfaces this week that list is all viable. Getting back to Grillo, he’s also extremely accurate off the tee, which makes him a great play all-around.

Spencer Levin… I love a good Nappy Factor story as much as anyone, but Levin has gone in the wrong direction since withdrawing from the Wyndham to be their for the birth of his first child. His form is way off the tracks but if there is anytime to get back on Levin, it’s on a short course. A bit risky, so leave him to GPPs only.

Jon Rahm… Rahmbo’s popularity reached an all-time high last week as he was far-and-away the highest owned golfer on DraftKings. I was right there with the crowd, as I had around 60% of Rahm in my lineups. His price saw a bump this week, but he’s still a sexy name in a field without much beef. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t eclipse 25% again. Unlike most weeks, Rahm actually has some course history here, missing the cut two years ago and finishing T10 last year. He’s still a great play on paper, but with accuracy being the name of the game for me this week, I’m considering a limit on my personal exposure.

Anirban Lahiri… Would be 26th on my rankings if I extended any further. As I dive even deeper as the week goes on, I could see him rising up the board. He’s more accurate than most and nearly took home the turkey at the CIMB Classic recently. Another event played on Paspalum greens.

Si Woo Kim… Another name that missed out on my top 25, but not by much. When I look at his performance on courses under 7,100 yards, I see he’s found top 25s in 6-of-7 starts. I definitely don’t hate the play this week, even if he’s not currently in my top 25.

My Top 25 for the 2017 OHL Classic at Mayakoba

1. Russell Knox

2. Jim Furyk

3. Emiliano Grillo

4. Wesley Bryan

5. Jon Rahm

6. Harris English

7. Tony Finau

8. Keegan Bradley

9. Michael Kim

10. Shawn Stefani

11. Webb Simpson

12. Charles Howell III

13. Luke Donald

14. Cheng Tsung Pan

15. Scott Piercy

16. Gary Woodland

17. Chris Kirk

18. Harold Varner III

19. Graham DeLaet

20. Ryan Blaum

21. Ian Poulter

22. Kevin Streelman

23. Fabian Gomez

24. Zac Blair

25. Brian Harman

Turkish Airlines Open Fantasy Preview

This will be my shortest Euro Tour preview yet. DraftKings is still putting out slates similar to a 3-game MLB slate. Yawnnnn.

The no-cut event this week is in Turkey and will be played at the Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort. It’s a par 71 that checks in just over 7,100 yards. This is a new course for the TAO but it did host a in 2010. It appears the greens have been switched from bentgrass to bermuda since then.

The field got the wind sucked out of it dramatically when Rory McIlroy made the first move to de-commit. With terrorist activity in the area as recent as a few weeks ago, many golfers do not want to risk it security-wise.

Check out Dave Tindall’s preview at Rotoworld for some more great nuggets.

Players to Watch

Bernd Wiesberger… One of the few in the field that also played the 2010 Challenge Tour event here. He’s as steady as it comes on the Euro Tour and also a recent top-10 machine.

Alejandro Canizares… A great record playing in Asia. Although, this is right on the border or Europe/Asia, I still think he’ll feel comfy on these bermuda greens which are often seen across Asia.

David Lipsky… Playing good golf as of late, beating the field average in all seven of his starts over the past 10 weeks of stroke-play events. Others with similar rates showing they are in good form as of late: Joakim Lagergren, Nicolas Colsaerts, Chris Paisley, Tommy Fleetwood, David Drysdale, Alexander Levy, Richard Bland.

Byeong Hun An… When he’s not playing a PGA TOUR event, he seems to be elite. Eventually, it has to translate to the big stage, right? Until then, we can continue to feast on An during Euro events.

Nicolas Colsaerts… The Belgian Bomber’s return to form in 2016 deserves a big finish.

Benjamin Hebert … Just missed the top 25 but he rarely implodes. With no cut this week, he should be able to piece together at least one good round and hang around near field-average in the others. That makes him a steady option to save some salary.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Turkish Airlines Open

1. Bernd Wiesberger

2. Byeong Hun An

3. Thongchai Jaidee

4. Andy Sullivan

5. Nicolas Colsaerts

6. Alejandro Canizares

7. Tommy Fleetwood

8. David Lipsky

9. Richard Bland

10. Anirban Lahiri

11. Tyrrell Hatton

12. Alexander Levy

13. Soren Kjeldsen

14. Chris Paisley

15. Robert Rock

16. Padraig Harrington

17. Danny Willett

18. Thomas Aiken

19. Adrian Otaegui

20. Julien Quesne

21. Paul Lawrie

22. Joakim Lagergren

23. Marc Warren

24. Andrew Johnston

25. Matthew Southgate

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Fantasy Preview

DraftKings surprised us with contests for the Sanderson Farms last week, the first time hosting for an alternate-field event. Don’t be confused when you look at the field list this week, it’s not another opposite-field event, we are just cruising along in the wraparound schedule, so the fields will remain weak until the calendar strikes 2017.

There are definitely a few stars highlighting the field, but the depth of the field is thinner the latest MacBook Pro.

The course is a familiar one this week, TPC Summerlin, which has hosted exclusively since the 2008 edition, back when Justin Timberlake was plastered all over the scorecards. TPC Summerlin is a par 71 that plays just over 7,250 yards on tournament weeks. The fairways are tough to hit, but the rough is not very penal, which allows golfers to grip-it and rip-it as they see fit. If tournament officials get tricky with the pin placements, then splitting the fairways will become more important, but I’m personally not targeting one set of skills (bombers/plodders) this week.

With average green surfaces eclipsing 7,500 square feet, they are monster targets to hit, so it’s no surprise to see the field averaging around 74% of greens in regulation. Despite high rates of GIR, I’m still having a hard look at scrambling this week. Misses can be punished at TPC Summerlin with doubles and/or triples, so great scramblers can avoid those ideally.

Last, but definitely not least, is the local factor. If you look at the field this week and isolate the 10 golfers who have gained the most strokes here since 2008 then 8 outta 10 have a connection to Las Vegas and/or desert golf. Guys like Chad Campbell and Ryan Moore went to UNLV. Scott Piercy, Nick Watney, and Kevin Na all live in Las Vegas. Kevin Streelman and Martin Laird are no strangers to desert golf given their houses in Arizona. Spencer Levin is also in that desert-golf boat having attending the University of New Mexico. Webb Simpson and Jason Bohn were the two course horses I couldn’t draw a connection to Las Vegas or desert golf.

Diving through the stats, I found five correlated events: Waste Management Phoenix Open, Wyndham Championship, Byron Nelson, Colonial, and the Memorial. The first three are the key events I will be focusing on personally.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament and course information.

Players to Watch

Jon Rahm… Rahmbo checks off the first box (desert golf connections) with his tenure at Arizona State as well as his strong showing at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Second, he’s the class of the field along with Brooks. Rahm and Brooks were both in the 2.2 range in terms of adjusted strokes gained per round in 2016 while the third-best drops off dramatically to around 1.6 strokes per round (Ryan Moore). Third, he racks up birdies better than anyone in the field, so he should pile up a ton of DraftKings points, regardless of finishing position. This has great potential for a maiden victory.

Webb Simpson… He’s a past winner here (2014) and he’s found T4s in two of his other four starts here. Despite his lack of local knowledge, there is something about the course that suits his eye, for sure. If you believe in ridiculous narratives then you’ll love to know Webb is playing his first event since fellow ex-anchorer Brendan Steele won the Safeway. Inspiration? If that’s the case then the same could be said for Keegan Bradley as well, who is also in a great point in his life as he preps for his early December wedding.

Scott Piercy… He’s the prototype for desert golf. Even my wife knows that. The only potential setback this week could be jetlag as he arrives fresh off a week in Shanghai.

Jimmy Walker… Had an abysmal week in China and now he’s wasting no time getting back on the course. Part of me thinks he’s only in the field to appease one of his sponsors, MGM Resorts. Another part of me thinks he’s only in Las Vegas to get in a nice practice session with his coach Butch Harmon. If something clicks during that pre-tourney practice session then Walker could cruise to victory. Otherwise, we could see him anchor to the bottom of the leaderboard for a second-straight week.

Graham DeLaet… After a near-miss in Jackson, GDL now heads to Vegas where he’s missed the cut during the 2014 and 2016 editions but earned a T18 way back in 2010. Much like Walker, DeLaet is likely convinced to make it to Vegas as a MGM brand ambassador. With scrambling being one of the factors I’m looking at this week, that sort of rules out Mr. Yips here, for the most part. On the bright side, he calls Scottsdale home, so perhaps he’s getting the hang of desert golf. As long as he hits 90% of greens this week, he’s got a chance.

Brooks Koepka… Speaking of Scottsdale, Koepka’s only PGA TOUR win comes at TPC Scottdale. Unfortunately, he’s bookended a couple of missed cuts here with a T4 (2015), so it’s been very boom-or-bust. Avoid him in cash due to that course history and potential jetlag, but he’s a great GPP option with loads of birdie/eagle potential.

Michael Kim… The youngster has five top 25s since turning pro (34 starts). All five of them came against fields with a OWGR strength of field < 250. Perhaps he's a bit intimidated by the heavy-hitters, but that shouldn't be a problem this week with a relatively thin field.


Tony Finau… Don’t forget about the King of Bentgrass. Finau has 26 starts on bentgrass greens. A solid top-25 rate would be landing inside the top 25 in six or seven of them. Try double that. The big hitter has found top 25s in 15 of his 26 starts on bentgrass greens. Tasty!

Jonas Blixt… If you’re looking for a boom-or-bust long shot winner, Blixt may be the guy. He’s one of the best scramblers in the field, which I already highlighted as something I am targeting this week. He also boasts a third-place finish here at TPC Summerlin (2012). I never said he was safe, but he will cheap, low owned, and he’s a two-time PGA TOUR winner.

Grayson Murray… Found out the hard way last week just how hard it is to play with a lead on the PGA TOUR. Murray played some college golf at Arizona State so he may feel comfortable in the desert this week. Makes him an appealing option if you’re looking for Web.com Tour grads to target. Other grads I would consider this week: C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, J.J. Spaun, Ryan Blaum, Ollie Schniederjans, Xander Schauffele.

Jason Bohn… Hasn’t been the same since returning from the heart attack, but can you blame him? If you want to gamble on a return to form, this would be a great spot as he sports three top 10s over his last four starts here.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Shriners

1. Jon Rahm

2. Webb Simpson

3. Ryan Moore

4. Kevin Na

5. Scott Piercy

6. Tony Finau

7. Francesco Molinari

8. Brooks Koepka

9. Charles Howell III

10. Harris English

11. Keegan Bradley

12. Martin Laird

13. Jimmy Walker

14. Billy Horschel

15. Chris Kirk

16. Kevin Streelman

17. Wesley Bryan

18. William McGirt

19. Chad Campbell

20. Nick Watney

21. Charley Hoffman

22. Michael Kim

23. Robert Garrigus

24. Aaron Baddeley

25. Robert Streb

Sanderson Farms Championship Fantasy Preview

For the first time in DraftKings history, we have contests for an alternate-field event! Having one glance at the contests sizes, it’s easy to see they want very few people to tie their money up for four days, but at least they put something out. Progress!

The course for the SFC is the Country Club of Jackson. It’s a 7,421 yard, par 72 layout. Despite the raw yardage numbers, it’s actually a course where the driver is not that important. Six of the par 4s come in at 421 or shorter, allowing golfers to take 3-woods or irons off the tee if they choose.

The greens are some of the easiest to hit on TOUR, with the field averaging 71% during the two editions played here. With the ease of the approach shots, it’s easy to see why it could turn into a putting contest. If you give everyone in the field 13 birdie chances per round, there is bound to be someone that gets hot with the putter. That man last year was Peter Malnati who gained nearly 12 strokes putting en route to victory.

Ball-striking is always more reliable but this is a course where I am fine taking a few shots on great putters, as well.

If you look at the leaderboards over the last two seasons, you’ll also notice the strong ties to the South. Guys like David Toms, Jason Bohn, Boo Weekley, Blayne Barber, etc. all grew up and/or attended college down South, so they are well-accustomed to this Southern fall weather and bermuda greens.

Diving through the stats, I found four correlated events: Zurich Classic, Valspar, API, and THE PLAYERS.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament and course information.

Players to Watch

Patton Kizzire… The Kizz checks quite a few boxes this week. First, he was born in Alabama, went to Clemson, and lives in Georgia, so he checks the ‘Southern ties’ box. Second, he ranked 16th in strokes gained putting last year, so he is certainly capable of splashing in his fair share given the easy-to-hit greens. Third, his biggest weakness is strokes gained around the green, so a course that features easy-to-hit targets, will force him to use that skill much less. Lastly, he is coming off a runner-up finish so he brings in some form and/or confidence this week.

Blayne Barber… Was catching fire, relatively, to end the season. Posting four top 30s over his last eight starts, making the cut in all eight. Now he gets some course familiarity for a change. He’s used to spending his early week getting to know the course and planning out a strategy. This week he brings a T9 and T39 on his CC of Jackson resume, so he can focus his attention elsewhere. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him contending this week.

Ryan Blaum… Blaum has shown remarkable consistency over his Web.com Tour career. It took him a while to earn the top-heavy finishes to make a dent in the money list, but he’s steady. That often translates to the big stage, so I’m going to run with it until he proves otherwise. He’s also a Duke grad living in Florida so he knows the bermuda greens. Adding to the fuel, my mother-in-law randomly works with one of his relatives and she actually printed out a page of an article that talked about Blaum earning his TOUR card. If that’s not a sign I should invest, I dunno what is.

Bryce Molder… He fits the profile of Malnati who relies heavily on putting to gain his strokes. Molder finished T4 here last year, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another top 10 this time around. The Arkansas native and Ga-Tech grad certainly doesn’t mind the bermuda greens on tap.

Robby Shelton… The Alabama Ginger had one of the finest college careers and now he’s looking for a permanent home on the PGA TOUR. While Aaron Wise may be the long-term class of this field, Shelton is right there with him, but Shelton is closer to home, so he gets the nod.

Chris Kirk… He’s dropping down a weight class to gain some confidence, perhaps. The Georgia Bulldog won this event back in 2011 (Annandale) and posted top 10s in each of the two years after, also at Annandale. The four-time PGA TOUR winner is obviously a threat to contend in this weak field.

David Toms… He loves it in the South and benefits from the less-than-driver nature of the course. The problem is his age. He’s not getting any younger, and I just find it hard to invest in golfers rapidly approach 50 years of age.

Russell Henley… Give him easy-to-hit bermuda greens, and he’ll find his way to the top of the leaderboard more often than not. Should grab a top 25 this week.

Lucas Glover… we’re on bermuda, so I’m willing to give him a look. That is all.

Trey Mullinax… May not be the ideal course, since he can’t really overpower it. Still, Mullinax reminds me a lot of Kizzire, and we’ve seen how well he played here last year.

Luke List… Give him a par 72 and he’s prolly going to feast. In projected tee-to-green this week, List is right up there with Glover, Boo, and DeLaet this week. The putter is always the question mark.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Sanderson Farms Championship

1. Patton Kizzire

2. Chris Kirk

3. Ian Poulter

4. Blayne Barber

5. Ben Martin

6. Russell Henley

7. Ryan Blaum

8. Luke List

9. Austin Cook

10. Bryce Molder

11. Trey Mullinax

12. Robby Shelton

13. Shawn Stefani

14. Lucas Glover

15. Jason Bohn

16. David Toms

17. Boo Weekley

18. Graham DeLaet

19. Grayson Murray

20. Kevin Streelman

21. J.T. Poston

22. Seamus Power

23. Retief Goosen

24. Jerry Kelly

25. Tag Ridings