Josh Culp's Blog, page 20

Volvo China Open Fantasy Preview

The European Tour heads to Topwin Golf and Country Club for a second straight year in preparation for the Volvo China Open.

The course is an Ian Woosnam design of moderate length (7,261 yards) and plays to a par of 72. There is water in play on 15 holes and the greens are bentgrass.

We can’t really garner a true course profile from just one year of data but last year saw a lot of above-average GIR machines rise to the top with scrambling proving to be not so relevant. That would make sense given the amount of water hazards, steady ball-striking should be the name of the game. Standout short game is an added bonus.

As for the course layout, there are three par 5s over 580 yards, three par 4s over 470 yards, and two par 3s over 210 yards. That should open the door for a lot of long-iron play. The big hitters should have an advantage on those long par 5s, but if they get hit with wind in their faces, then they easily become three-shot holes, eliminating the distance advantage.

For potentially correlated leaderboards I am looking at the 2015 Volvo, 2015 Turkish Airlines, 2015 BMW Masters, 2016 Perth International, and 2016 Volvo.

Players to Watch

Peter Uihlein … Arrives with top 35s in nine of last 11 starts worldwide, six of those doubling as top 20s. He withdrew from this event last year, his last start before making the decisions to have wrist surgery. Safe to say his wrist is much better now. Looking at the five correlated events I highlighted above, Uihlein has top 8 finishes in three of those. He really likes to play in this part of the world, and I think he’s long overdue for a second Euro Tour win.

Alexander Levy … Since the start of 2015, his performance in Asia is 1.14 strokes higher than his baseline performance. He plays some of his best golf in this region including a T28 here last year.

Lucas Bjerregaard … While Levy is 1.14 strokes better in Asia, the 25-year-old Dane is a remarkable 1.37 strokes better, per round, in Asia. Had a third-place finish here last year and also finished third at the 2015 BMW Masters, another event hosted in China. Add in a runner-up finish at the 2015 Hong Kong Open and all three of his best OWGR performances have come in China.

Performance in Asia … Sicking with the Asian Specialists, here is the top 10 performers in Asia since 2015:

Bernd Wiesberger

Thongchai Jaidee

Alexander Levy

Peter Uihlein

Lucas Bjerregaard

Julien Quesne

Ross Fisher

Hao Tong Li

Richard Bland

Scott Hend

Kiradech Aphibarnrat … He is always a popular name because of his large personality and love of material objects. While his upside is through the roof, he’s also pretty reliant on the flat stick. With so much water in play at Topwin, I would be surprised if he leaves without at least one big number on his card. Just missed out on my top 25 but a very boom-or-bust option, good for GPPs for betting tickets.

Dylan Frittelli … With top 20s in five of his last six starts, the form is at a rolling boil.

Jordan Smith … He’s been a quick learner at all stages of development (2 WINS in first 8 EuroPro Tour starts and 2 WINS on the Challenge Tour last year). With three straight top 20s heading into the week, he’s quickly trending toward his first Euro Tour victory.

Rikard Karlberg … After a slow start to the season, the Swede has finished T27 and T57 in his last two starts entering the week. That’s not anything to write home about, but it puts him back on the radar for DraftKings GPPs. He’s won on the Euro Tour as recently as 2015, made 70% of cuts since 2014, and sits way down at $6,200 on DK. A decent GPP flyer.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Volvo China Open

1. Peter Uihlein

2. Alexander Levy

3. Bernd Wiesberger

4. Thongchai Jaidee

5. Ross Fisher

6. Lucas Bjerregaard

7. Jordan Smith

8. Joost Luiten

9. Gregory Bourdy

10. Richard Bland

11. Richie Ramsay

12. Hao Tong Li

13. Dylan Frittelli

14. Chris Wood

15. Dean Burmester

16. Fabrizio Zanotti

17. Alexander Bjork

18. David Lipsky

19. Mikko Korhonen

20. Julien Quesne

21. Peter Hanson

22. Jorge Campillo

23. Benjamin Hebert

24. Maximilian Kieffer

25. Romain Wattel

Zurich Classic Fantasy Preview

From a fantasy perspective, this week’s Zurich Classis is going to be lame. Most fantasy formats can’t quickly change their scoring formats and feeds at the drop of a hat. Maybe next year. From a viewer’s perspective, this week is going to be awesome!

While it won’t exactly rival the Ryder Cup in terms of intensity, it will definitely bring out some new elements that we don’t see week-to-week on TOUR. There will be alternate shot during Rounds 1 and 3 with best ball being played in Round 2 and 4.

With scoring still being STROKE PLAY, we won’t see players dive too deep into their risk-reward bucket, especially during alternate shot, but it will be fun to watch. The golfers seem to agree, just look at the strength of this week’s field versus what the Zurich Classic usually attracts. This event is known for attracting bad weather (an event in Louisiana in late April, who would have guessed) but the top-tier golfers are definitely showing up this year to take part in this new format.

The course is TPC Lousiana, a lengthy Pete Dye Design that has plenty of hazards lurking but not too difficult if you play smart golf. Keep your eye on the forecast but this event is no stranger to lift, clean, and place or heavy gusts of wind.

Some comparible events I found include: THE PLAYERS, Shell Houston Open, St Jude Classic, Waste Management Phoenix Open, and the Honda Classic.

Teams to Watch

Daniel Berger/Thomas Pieters … Possibly the most interesting team to watch this week. Berger had this to say about the layout in 2015, “kind of reminds me of a Florida-style golf course, so I’m used to kind of seeing water on one side of the hole. You’ve just got to pick your targets and get good shots.” and “I just feel comfortable out here.” Add in Pieters who proved more-than-worthy in team competition (dominant performance at 2016 Ryder Cup). I’m going to make them my TEAM TO BEAT.

Byeong Hun An/Seung-Yul Noh … The duo has already been posting Instagram strories together over the last few weeks, so you know the team chemistry should be there. Plus, Noh is a past champ here (2014) and An lost in a playoff during the weather-shorterend version last year. A very nice sleeper squad.

Jamie Lovemark/Luke Donald … The Bears Club duo, perhaps this team has more practice rounds together under their belts than most would expect. If a scrambling competition breaks out during the event, my money is on these guys. Lovemark also lost in a playoff here last year.

Henrik Stenson/Justin Rose … A classical duo that is nearly unbeatable when they’re clicking. Stenson has been far from clicking, but maybe a little team pressure will kick him back into gear.

Kyle Stanley/Ryan Ruffels … I’ve already highlighted An/Noh as a nice sleeper squad to watch by Stanley-Ruffels is my dark horse pick to contend. From tee-to-green this team stacks up with almost anyone in the field. Pete Dye forces golfers into hitting plenty of long approaches here, making Ruffels high ball flight very advantageous. Add in some status motiviation for Ruffels, BINGO.

Graham DeLaet/David Hearn … The Canucks that have been waiting so long to earn their maiden wins. It would be kind of funny if they finally sealed the deal here, giving them a PGA TOUR title, but with an asterisk.

My Top 25 Teams for the 2017 Zurich Classic

1. Daniel Berger & Thomas Pieters

2. Jason Day & Rickie Fowler

3. Justin Rose & Henrik Stenson

4. Jordan Spieth & Ryan Palmer

5. Bubba Watson & J.B. Holmes

6. Byeong Hun An & Seung-yul Noh

7. Ryan Ruffels & Kyle Stanley

8. Luke Donald & Jamie Lovemark

9. Graham DeLaet & David Hearn

10. Charley Hoffman & Nick Watney

11. Keegan Bradley & Brendan Steele

12. Russell Henley & Blayne Barber

13. Branden Grace & Louis Oosthuizen

14. Justin Thomas & Bud Cauley

15. Jason Dufner & Patton Kizzire

16. Kevin Chappell & Gary Woodland

17. Harris English & Hudson Swafford

18. Tony Finau & Daniel Summerhays

19. Patrick Reed & Patrick Cantlay

20. Jhonnatan Vegas & Fabian Gomez

21. Patrick Rodgers & Cameron Tringale

22. Scott Brown & Kevin Kisner

23. Russell Knox & Kevin Streelman

24. Brandon Hagy & Michael Kim

25. Robert Streb & Troy Merritt

Shenzhen International Fantasy Preview

After a pit stop in Northern African, the Euro Tour heads to Asia for a two-week China trip.

The first event takes place this week at Genzon Golf Club, the host of this event for the past two years and also the 2014 edition of the Volvo China Open.

The course is not long, just 7,145 yards. The bigger hitters should have some leeway, in theory, on the shorter par 5s (3 of the 4 under 550 yards) but shorter hitters can still score. There are also five short par 4s under 410 yards. I would assume golfers can leave the driver in their bag more than usual this week as they opt for less-than-driver to keep it in the fairway before approaching the Paspalum greens.

Players to Watch

Alexander Levy… Looking for course horses, Levy jumps off the page. He finished T4 here last year after a T25 in 2015. He also won the 2014 Volvo China Open at this venue.

Tommy Fleetwood… He is 1A to Levy’s course horse label. Tommy finished runner-up to Levy in 2014, finished solo third in 2015 and recorded a steady T19 last year. The comfort level is very high this week.

Performance in Asia… The ability to travel East, deal with the time changes, climates, grasses, etc. is a big deal. Looking at performance on Asian courses since 2015 may give us a heads up on who doesn’t mind the travel and conditions:

Thongchai Jaidee

Lucas Bjerregaard

Peter Uihlein

Bernd Wiesberger

Alexander Levy

Hao Tong Li

Richard Bland

Julien Quesne

Scott Hend

Bradley Dredge

Performance on Par 72s…

Bernd Wiesberger

Thongchai Jaidee

Ross Fisher

Jaco Van Zyl

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Peter Uihlein

Hao Tong Li

Bradley Dredge

Victor Dubuisson

Gregory Bourdy

Looking for overlap from our two lists, we find names like Bernd Wiesberger, Thongchai Jaidee, Peter Uihlein, Hao Tong Li, and Bradley Dredge. Those five should be high on our target lists this week although Dredge has been resting over the past few months so his form is a question mark.

Just missed the top 25… Some golfers that just missed out on my top 25 list below, but I still like include: Paul Dunne, Romain Langasque, James Morrison, Lucas Bjerregaard, and Chris Hanson.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Shenzhen

1. Tommy Fleetwood

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Alexander Levy

4. Ross Fisher

5. Joost Luiten

6. Peter Uihlein

7. Hao Tong Li

8. Thongchai Jaidee

9. Gregory Bourdy

10. Bradley Dredge

11. Richard Bland

12. Mikko Korhonen

13. Richie Ramsay

14. Pablo Larrazabal

15. Brandon Stone

16. Jordan Smith

17. Jorge Campillo

18. Bubba Watson

19. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

20. Gregory Havret

21. Dean Burmester

22. Jaco Van Zyl

23. Fabrizio Zanotti

24. Alexander Bjork

25. Maximilian Kieffer

Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview

Remember the Alamo! That is the first thing that comes to mind when I hear San Antonio.

After that, it’s REMEMBER THE 2015 VALERO! This was the year that winds wrecked havoc on the field. It wasn’t the entire field, though, there was a distinct tee-time advantage. The Thursday AM wave averaged 78.61 while the PM wave averaged 74.86, nearly a FOUR SHOT SWING! They gave back 1.5 shots on Friday, but the damage had already been done. This is the type of carnage that can take place in Texas events. Luckily, the current forecast does not look too crazy, but keep an eye out, for sure.

Weather aside, this week’s course (AT&T Oaks Course @ TPC San Antonio) is an extremely difficult Greg Norman Design. It’s a tree-lined course with plenty of native rocks and such surrounding the fairways if you get too wild. That makes it much tougher to simply recover from poor tee shots. You should see plenty of “tee shot to native area… Penalty Drop” this week on Shot Tracker. Most of the tree-lined courses on TOUR are on the shorter side of the spectrum but this week’s layout checks in over 7,400 yards. This puts a premium on strokes gained off-the-tee.

Short game metrics don’t show a very high correlation to past success at TPC San Antonio, so I will be sticking to the ball-striking stats this week, meaning golfers like Ryan Palmer, Kevin Chappell, Luke List, and Byeong Hun An are back on my radar.

There are five par 4s on the scorecard that are 410 yards or less, so golfers that thrive on shorter par 4s should be given a boost (Brooks, Horschel, Summerhays, Moore, Palmer, Na). As for the par 5s, there is typically only one that is reachable by more than half of the field (#14) while only the longest of hitters will take a crack of going for the green on the other three.

Looking for correlated events/courses, the five that popped the most were: Doral, The Masters, WGC Bridgestone, TOUR Championship, and the CareerBuilder Challenge.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament history, angles, and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

[image error]Charley Hoffman… His track record at this course includes a gold medal, silver medal, and a bronze medal, in addition to four other top 15s. There is clearly something about the area that Charley likes since he posted top 15s in three of his four Valero starts before TPC San Antonio even hosted the event. He had a Masters hangover last week, but he should be right back in contention this week, at least for the first two or three days.

Brendan Steele… Picked up his first PGA TOUR title here at TPC San Antonio (2011). The wind was really howling that week, but since then his performance in the wind has been less-than-stellar. He’s proven that it wasn’t a one-hit wonder here, though, collecting three more top 15s in five return visits. Much like Hoffman, his off-the-tee game is his biggest strength, which is beyond crucial here on the AT&T Oaks Course.

Daniel Summerhays… He’s not going to win any awards for best form entering the week, but his track record at this course speaks for itself. Two years ago he said this about the course, “If I could play every event at the Valero Texas Open, in TPC San Antonio, I’d have a pretty high World Ranking because it seems to be pretty good to me.” His last four finishes here are: T13-T4-T2-T7, making him a good option despite the ho-hum current form.

Harold Varner III… HV3 has a huge fan club and I would say I was a part of it for a while, but we’ve grown apart. I’m jumping back in because this is the first time he’s cracked my rankings in quite some time. If he pops on my list, then I’m guessing he’s going to get a lot of love across the industry. The course looks like a good fit, but I should remind people he still hasn’t led or co-led on the PGA TOUR after ANY ROUND. Perhaps that will change this week.

Beau Hossler… While Curtis Luck may get the lions share of attention in terms of youngsters this week, Hossler is the guy I want to target in Texas. The Austin resident is just 2-for-4 this season as he tries to play his way into PGA TOUR status. However, both of his MCs were on the number and his game looks steady overall. Has nothing better than T29 in eight career starts, but I’m going to say he picks up his first top 25 this week. IF you play in a deep, season-long league where the free agent pool is thin, consider a speculative add on Hossler, because his upside is real big if he can just manage to earn Special Temporary Membership.

Martin Laird… When you have mid-to-long approaches and firm greens like we often see here, it pays to have a high ball flight. That is something Laird prides himself on, so it’s no surprise to see he’s won here (2013) and also finished T9 (2011). With four top 10s already this season, we know his game is still there and I won’t be surprised if he flings his name into the mix this week.

Byeong Hun An… Finished T33 at the Masters despite three-putting SEVEN times. That sums his game up well right now, great tee-to-green game but gives it all back on the greens. There are only a handful of golfers more talented in this week’s field. I do think An figures out these American green surfaces sooner rather than later. Extremely high upside this week.

Tony Finau… Finau on bermuda…. pass, right? That combination is usually an auto-fade as Finau typically struggles on bermudagrass greens but his form is so juicy right now, I am currently on the fence. Consider him a lively GPP play, but not someone I fully trust. He lost 4.9 strokes putting the only other time he played this event, three-putting four times on the week.

Scott Piercy … Look no further if you want a R1-2 FanDuel option. Piercy is the King of fast starts, but he usually fades over the weekend.

Jason Kokrak… Someone that should roast this course as long as he can avoid the big numbers. That’s a big if, but he got a big boost for the upside alone. There are double bogeys lurking everywhere around TPC San Antonio so plays like Kokrak, List, Brooks, Ollie, Lovemark, and Finau should be considered GPP only. Boom-or-Bust, folks.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Valero Texas Open

1. Charley Hoffman

2. Brendan Steele

3. Matt Kuchar

4. Jason Kokrak

5. Luke List

6. Kevin Chappell

7. Ryan Palmer

8. Byeong Hun An

9. Harold Varner III

10. Jamie Lovemark

11. Keegan Bradley

12. Tony Finau

13. Ryan Moore

14. Martin Laird

15. Daniel Summerhays

16. Brooks Koepka

17. Beau Hossler

18. Jimmy Walker

19. Billy Horschel

20. Ollie Schniederjans

21. John Huh

22. J.T. Poston

23. Scott Piercy

24. Cameron Percy

25. J.J. Spaun

Trophee Hassan II Fantasy Preview

The European Tour returns to action this week and that means we finally have another Euro Tour DraftKings slate.

They are getting closer and closer to finally playing in the continent of Europe but this week we head to Northern Africa, Morocco in particular, to take on Royal Golf Dar Es Salam. This lengthy track with bentgrass/poa greens was used in the 2010 and 2016 editions of this event, so we only have a small morsel of course history.

Players to Watch

Joost Luiten… If we need to identify the class of the field, look no further than the Dutchman. On top of raw skill, he’s also seen this course before, posting a 14th-place finish back in 2010. He is the man to beat, in my eyes.

Jeunghun Wang… The defending champ here but also flying straight from Augusta National. He grades out the best in the field on long courses but with jetlag in the mix I can easily drop him from my list of targets this week. The next in line for performance on long courses would be: Victor Dubuisson, Gregory Bourdy, Nicolas Colsaerts, and Jaco Van Zyl.

Trevor Fisher Jr.… A specialist on his home continent, Fisher Jr. is one to watch this week. He is very familiar with the kikuyu grass that is featured tee-to-green this week. The next in line for performance in Africa would be: Dean Burmester, Jaco Van Zyl, Jeunghun Wang, and Richard Sterne.

Aaron Rai… The 22-year-old is terrorizing the Challenge Tour right now, arriving fresh off a win at the Kenya Open. He finished 2016 with 11 top 20s on that circuit. Rai recently posted a T7 at the Joburg Open just over a month ago, so this level of field is not overwhelming to him. A bit of a wildcard this week, but a lot of upside.

Robert Rock… It’s hard to be a course horse with only two years of data but the hatless wonder has finished T7 and T3 in his two attempts at this week’s course. His form is nothing to write home about, but this definitely looks like a spot where he can jumpstart his season.

Plug-and-Play… They’ve had a bit of time off over the last few weeks but I think we can jump back on the trio of Jordan Smith, Romain Langasque, and Alexander Bjork. They have proven to be very steady early in their Euro Tour careers and there is nothing intimidating about this week’s field. Slightly below them would be Thomas Detry, also worth a strong look this week.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Trophee Hassan II

1. Joost Luiten

2. Dean Burmester

3. Mikko Korhonen

4. Robert Rock

5. Alexander Bjork

6. Jordan Smith

7. Chris Hanson

8. Maximilian Kieffer

9. Anthony Wall

10. Romain Langasque

11. Alexander Levy

12. Paul Dunne

13. Brandon Stone

14. Trevor Fisher Jr.

15. James Morrison

16. Richie Ramsay

17. Stephen Gallacher

18. Dylan Frittelli

19. Jorge Campillo

20. David Drysdale

21. Nino Bertasio

22. Mike Lorenzo-Vera

23. Thomas Detry

24. Lasse Jensen

25. Aaron Rai

RBC Heritage Fantasy Preview

SERGIO!

After years and years of supporting the Spaniard, I had finally lost hope (at Augusta National, at least). I took him off my target list last week and BAM the magic happens. We can chalk this one up as a win for current form (striping it off the tee recently) and also a win for narrative street (good place in his life/engagement swag/Seve swag). As for his recent course-history track record, he had finished outside the top 30 in 9 of his last 12 visits to Augusta National and it was presumed he’d officially talked himself out of ever winning there. WRONG. On the bright side, I got to see one of my top 5 favorite golfers finally win a major.

Back to the grind, let’s turn our attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage in South Carolina. If you look at Hilton Head Island on a map, it’s easy to see why this place is usually one of the windiest places on TOUR. However, the forecast currently looks pretty calm so we don’t need to worry about that too much this week, unless the forecast changes drastically.

The Pete Dye Design on tap this week is a par 71 that plays right around 7,100 yards, pretty short by PGA TOUR standards. The first thing that pops out is the field average driving distance here. There aren’t any holes where the field averages over 280 yards. It is very much a LESS-THAN-DRIVER COURSE. Part of that is due to the tree-lined nature of the course, forcing you to position yourself rather than bomb-and-gouge. Also, the type of golfers that put this on their schedule are typically on the shorter side since the course doesn’t favor distance in any way.

The next thing that is notable is the difficulty of the greens. They are the smallest average green sizes on TOUR. You will still be missing quite a few greens here. In fact, 11 of the holes average less than 60% GIR, six of them average less than 50% GIR. You better be locked in with your irons or really know how to scramble.

Two of the three par 5s are reachable by the entire field (given they don’t lock themselves out off the tee), again proving that distance is not a big advantage around here.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament history, quotes, and tournament angles.

For correlated events I am looking at the Wyndham Championship, the RSM Classic, Valspar Championship, THE PLAYERS, and Colonial.

Players to Watch

Tyrrell Hatton… After a complete dud in round one last week, Hatton was packing his bags early in his Masters debut. I can’t ignore his stretch of amazing form before that, so I am jumping right back on the train. He’s basically the class of the field in terms of play over the last six months, so I will take a long look this week. At the same time, if he starts to become the chalk, I will be ready to jump ship since his potential short-game concerns here could lead to a repeat of last week.

Wesley Bryan… If I was searching for the perfect course to fit Wes Bryan, it’d probably look a lot like Harbour Town. He’s not going to over power a golf course so this layout falls right into his lap as he can bombard the flag sticks with his stellar iron play and then use his strong putter to save himself from the big numbers. He also lines for a great R1-2 FanDuel play because weekends have not been his friend on the PGA TOUR so far.

Team RBC… Some golfers just show up here because of a sponsor commitment. Check out the full lineup of RBC golfers to see who may be just going through the motions. Brandt Snedeker is a good example. He won this event back in 2011 so he’s not going to shy away from contention if his game is clicking. All of his 10 other visits have been outside the top 10, though, with seven of them being outside the top 40. They also mentioned a nagging wrist injury during the Masters broadcast. Probably someone I would avoid this week.

Jason Dufner… I’m not really sure what’s gotten into Dufner this year. His game is clicking on all cylinders and I do mean ALL. Usually horrendous with the flat stick, I keep waiting for his putting numbers to regress but he keeps knocking em in. His balanced attack should play quite nicely at Harbour Town and his typical weakness (distance) won’t be much of a factor.

Luke List… Given his reputation as a bomber only, this might be a contrarian view but I do think List can contend here at Harbour Town GL. His only weakness is his flat stick and with tiny greens on deck, perhaps that can get muted a bit this week. Much like Jason Kokrak, List should be able to lean heavily on his 2- or 3-iron this week and still hang with the shorter guys who will be hitting drivers.

Pat Perez… Two of the past eight Heritage winners have also won the OHL Classic (G-Mac and Gay). It just missed out on being one of my top 5 correlated events, but it could be an interesting angle to look at although part of that is tied to windy conditions which doesn’t look to be a big factor, as I write this. Pat Perez hoisted the trophy down in Mexico this year while John Huh and Charley Hoffman also have an OHL Classic trophy to their name.

LUKE DONALD… I’ve found myself slowly drifting from course history recently, but Luke Donald is someone I can’t overlook. He’s posted six podium finishes here in 11 starts, although he’s never actually won here. His comfort level here alone makes him a top 25 option.

Aaron Baddeeley… Not quite as consistent at this venue when you compare him to Donald. However, Badds has historically been the best birdie maker here at Harbour Town Golf Links. A good high risk, high reward option on DraftKings.

Bryson DeChambeau… Love the way he’s trending and he finished T4 here last year in his debut. He will make some of my squads this week, but he just narrowly misses out on my top 25 rankings because of his long-term inconsistencies.

Shane Lowry … After a second-round meltdown last week, Lowry is looking to rebound on a course he’s never seen. Tee-to-green wise, he’s one of the best in the field, but his short game can turn birdies into bogeys and pars in doubles. Some of the best upside in the field, but not someone I can fully trust.

Webb Simpson… Has a close call here (runner-up in 2013) and also has the Carolina Factor in his favor. He always looks lost on the greens but his off-the-tee stats have recently seen a slide as well. I could see him throwing himself into the mix this week but can’t see him actually sealing the deal.

My Top 25 for the 2017 RBC Heritage

1. Matt Kuchar

2. Jason Dufner

3. Kevin Kisner

4. Adam Hadwin

5. Charley Hoffman

6. Tyrrell Hatton

7. Bill Haas

8. Francesco Molinari

9. Russell Henley

10. Luke List

11. Billy Horschel

12. Luke Donald

13. Martin Kaymer

14. Jason Kokrak

15. Branden Grace

16. Graeme McDowell

17. Wesley Bryan

18. Jim Furyk

19. Marc Leishman

20. Pat Perez

21. Shane Lowry

22. Webb Simpson

23. Charles Howell III

24. Kevin Na

25. Keegan Bradley

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The Masters Fantasy Preview

After the Mud Ball Invitational in Houston, we are now ready for the main event. The first MAJOR of the season is taking place this week in Augusta, Georgia.

The course, Augusta National Golf Club, needs no introduction. It’s an iconic par 72 that pretty wide open off the tee but challenges golfers on approach as well as on (and around) the greens.

Diving straight into stats this week, the core stats of driving distance, distance from edge of fairway, greens in regulation, and scrambling all show up as very highly correlated to success at the Masters. We are looking for an ALL-AROUND great golfer. The one stat that does not correlate is putting. Poor putters have actually done better here, historically. Given the insane slopes and speeds of these greens, you don’t want to be relying on the flat stick to get the job done.

From a strokes-gained perspective we want to highly target OFF-THE-TEE. I want to give credit to Colin Drewby over at Dailyroto who put some strokes gained analysis together. I’ve been doing some behind-the-scenes work with Moose from ProjectRoto lately and we’ve seen a very similar trend on the importance of strokes gained off-the-tee at all events, not just Augusta National. That calls for an entire article by itself but on a basic level it boils down to off-the-tee being the only strokes gained metric that can not be influenced by a prior shot.

After that we still want elite approach-the-green play, while it’s always useful to combine the two (off-tee-tee & approach). I call this Strokes Gained Long, myself, but whenever I reference ball-striking stats, this is generally what I’m talking about.

As we get closer to the greens at Augusta National, good short game is a big plus because you don’t want to leave yourself 10 footers or even worse chip it back off the green (Martin Kaymer anyone?). That brings strokes gained around-the-green into the fold, but I would recommend you add in the amount of missed greens into that statistic (Strokes Gained Around-the-Green divided by # of Missed GIR). This will give us a slightly better view of who gets the ball up-and-down without giving poor ball-strikers an advantage for having more ARG opportunities. This still isn’t perfect but gets us a bit closer to properly grading short game.

On top of an already difficult test of golf, the forecast is looking to make it even harder. I included a link to the Windfinder station this week (bottom of page), which currently shows wind gusts exceeding 30 MPH on Thursday and Friday. That brings Wind Specialists into play this week.

For correlated events this week we want some combination of fast greens, a lot of mid-to-long par 4s, bentgrass greens, and not-so-lengthy par 5s. The events that ended up popping are:

WGC-Bridgestone, Doral, U.S. Open, THE PLAYERS, and the TOUR Championship.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… He’s shown no rust since returning from injury. He’s gained a remarkable 10.69 strokes off-the-tee in eight rounds since returning. I guess you could say the rust has presented itself around the greens as he’s been well below average in that regard. With Spieth stealing the spotlight in terms of “demons at Augusta” and DJ stealing the spotlight in terms of “clear-cut favorite to win”, Rory should slide right through and complete his career Grand Slam. Rory is my #1 this week, he just needs to avoid the big numbers. That’s a BIG IF for him.

Jon Rahm… The first-timer narrative is due to get shattered eventually. Rahm is the leading candidate to break it this week. I find the first-time narrative a bit funny because so many elite golfers play this for their first time when they are nowhere near ready to compete on this stage. Take Matsuyama for example, when he originally played Augusta National, he said that his goal was not to embarrass himself and just play four rounds. I think Rahm’s goals are a bit more lofty this week, and for good reason.

Jordan Spieth… Right now Jordan Spieth’s experience at the par-3 12th last year is like a dog that just had surgery. He just needs to wear a giant cone this year to prevent himself from licking the wound. If he accomplishes that for the entirety of the week, then the whole thing may be forgotten in a few years. However, if he plunks another in the water or overshoots the green by 10 yards, then the wound is going to re-open and it could get ugly. On the bright side, he said he made a prep trip here in December and birdied it both times playing the hole. On the down side, he then said he called Greller and excitingly told him the news. It’s clearly a big obstacle in his mind and he’s going to put a lot of pressure on himself to over-perform at the 12th. While this isn’t enough to drop him out of my top 5, it does have me a bit worried when we add that to his already ho-hum off-the-tee form.

Windy Peppercorns… Looking a little deeper at rounds played in 14 MPH+ wind, I want to target golfers that can lap the field in these conditions. I call these BOOM ROUNDS (beating the field average by 2 or more strokes).

The Top 10 in BOOM RATES in the WIND:

Jason Day

Rory McIlroy

Dustin Johnson

Jordan Spieth

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

Sergio Garcia

Adam Scott

J.B. Holmes

Hideki Matsuyama

On the flip side, another angle to look at is what golfers are able to hang around in the wind and then make up ground in the rounds when the weather is calm. For this we can look at a lack of BUST ROUNDS (losing 2 or more strokes to the field).

The Top 10 lowest BUST RATES in the WIND:

Rory McIlroy

Jason Day

Jordan Spieth

Emiliano Grillo

Daniel Berger

Bubba Watson

Matt Kuchar

Justin Rose

Sergio Garcia

J.B. Holmes

As you notice, there is plenty of high ball flights on both lists, so don’t get caught up on the “low ball flight needed in the wind” narrative. Great golfers can adjust their ball flight when needed but a high ball flight is still advantageous when landing greens.

Hudson Swafford… Doesn’t crack my top 25, but he’s not far off. He’s finally found some consistencybig finishes on TOUR after struggling with big numbers for years. He’s still prone to a weekend slide down the leaderboard, but he’s probably one of my favorite FanDuel R1-2 plays this week. If you need a narrative for Swafford then look no further then his college roommate, Jefferson Knox Jr. That name may sound familiar because he is the son of Jeff(erson) Knox, the famous Augusta National member that is often used as a marker at the Masters. I would guess Swafford has dialed up his old roommate to get in a few rounds with the old man. The same narrative applies to Justin Thomas who played college golf with Knox’ other son at Alabama.

Daniel Berger… Coming in fresh off a strong finish in Houston, what I really like is his consistency off the tee. He’s beat the field average in strokes gained off-the-tee for 11 straight events leading up to Augusta National. That is a great sign in terms of pure ball-striking. The one knock on him is his shot shape as he likes to work it left-to-right but he finished T10 in his debut last year, so I’m thinking it’s not such a huge deal, after all.

Tyrrell Hatton… If Rahm wasn’t in the field, then Hatton would be the leading candidate for top first-timer this week. He’s been superb with his Spyro the Dragon Purple Putter lately, but he’s even better in his long game. The lone weakness (at least recently) has been the scrambling. Arrives with six straight top 15s worldwide in stroke-play events. En fuego.

J.B. Holmes… We saw Sherlock Holmes on both Wind Lists above, but he may go overlooked this week as he comes in fresh off a MC at the Shell Houston Open. Last year he withdrew before the SHO with a shoulder injury and still managed to deliver a T4 at this event. His length is obviously a big advantage here at AGNC.

Phil Mickelson… Hard to find better history here from a long-term view. More recently, he’s finished outside the top 50 in three of his last four visits (T2 in 2015 in between). Will be extremely popular this week, but I will have much lower exposure compared to the field this week.

Hideki Matsuyama… Seemed like the entire golf world (or maybe just people I follow on Twitter) went out to bet him at the Masters at some point during his early-season dominance. He’s now the forgotten man but he shouldn’t be. One thing that often gets overlooked is his tremendous short game. He’s one of the TOUR’s best scramblers despite being a horrendous putter at times. If he can ball-strike to his normal standards and chip it close enough to minimize the putting damage, then he should be right in the thick of things (again) come Sunday.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Masters

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Jon Rahm

4. Rickie Fowler

5. Jordan Spieth

6. Justin Rose

7. Hideki Matsuyama

8. Daniel Berger

9. Tyrrell Hatton

10. Adam Scott

11. Charley Hoffman

12. Louis Oosthuizen

13. J.B. Holmes

14. Jason Day

15. Paul Casey

16. Francesco Molinari

17. Bill Haas

18. Shane Lowry

19. Emiliano Grillo

20. Gary Woodland

21. Brandt Snedeker

22. Matt Kuchar

23. Phil Mickelson

24. Charl Schwartzel

25. Tommy Fleetwood

Wind forecast for Augusta/Daniel Field provided by windfinder.com

Shell Houston Open Fantasy Preview

After a star-studded leaderboard in Puerto Rico we now head north for the Houston Open in Humble, Texas.

The way this year’s schedule lined up, we’re actually seeing quite a few big names in the field this week, trying to tune-up their game ahead of the Masters.

There is no better course than the Golf Club of Houston to do that. The course is a par 72 that plays over 7,400 yards just like Augusta National. While the greens at GC of Houston are bermuda, the tournament officials made the decision years ago to heavily overseed the greens with bentgrass/rye to get them closer to what the pros will see next week. They’ve done a good job, as the past results here correlate nicely with Bentgrass Performance, but not so much with bermuda.

The overseeding isn’t the only thing done to replicate conditions at Augusta National, they also mow the fairways toward the tee boxes, speed up the greens, and shave the runoff areas around the greens. They also cut the rough to 2 inches or less, basically non-existent. It’s no wonder that big hitters can gain an advantage here, as long as they avoid the hazards.

Like usual in Texas, good wind players will also have an edge. Scott Piercy has a great quote about the wind being heavier in this area, so the wind can still play a factor even when it’s only blowing 10 mph. Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for that quote and many others.

As for course scoring, both nines greet the golfers with a handshake and then slap them in the face as they are coming down the stretch. Hole #9 is the hardest hole to birdie and Holes 17 & 18 are ranked 2nd and 4th toughest in that regard.

For correlated events I’m targeting the Masters, Doral, WGC-Bridgestone, THE PLAYERS, and WM Phoenix Open.

Players to Watch

Jordan Spieth… The man to beat this week after DJ pulled out. He’s in form, has a runner-up finish already to his name here, and also has the Texas Connection. The only concern is price for DFS purposes. On paper he’s tough to beat, but will his mind already be in Georgia?

Jon Rahm… While Spieth has the potential of looking ahead to Augusta, Rahm has the “tired” narrative liking attached this week. He played his way into the finals at the Match Play last week. I know you can say, “this guys are professional athletes, they don’t get tired from walking around a course.” Physical fatigue is not the only concern. So many head-to-head matches can also be mentally draining. Just like Spieth, though, he’s a clear-cut top 5 play this week, on paper.

Billy Horschel… Trending very nicely recently, and we know how streaky Billy Ho can get. Looking at ball-striking over the last 10 weeks of stroke-play events, he’s one of just six golfers in the field to gain 10+ strokes off-the-tee AND approaching-the-green. He’s obviously aware of how close he is after posting a video on Twitter that told the world how close he is…and also entering this event for the first time since his runner-up finish in 2013.

Ollie Schniederjans… Looking at the course setup this week, there are four par 4s over 450 yards. That is a zone I immediately connect with Ollie. Since 2015, he’s third in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage in that range. Only Lee Westwood and Jon Rahm are ahead of him. I was slow to jump back on Ollie this fall because his Web.com Tour performance actually lowered his stock, but he’s piecing it all together on the big stage, so I finally jumped back on board recently. I will stay on for the ride this week, for sure.

Lucas Glover… It’s been a fun ride with Glove, but whenever we head to bentgrass, I kiss Lucas goodbye. He’s more than 3/4 of a stroke worse on bentgrass greens since 2014. I understand how rock solid he’s been tee-to-green, but this is when I will turn to the long-term putting stats and be willing to miss out if he happens to keep it rolling. This also means Tony Finau is very much back on my radar this week. He’s been striping the ball all year just like Glover and putts better on bentgrass versus bermuda.

Beau Hossler… The youngster is trying to play his way into TOUR status or at least earn his way into the Web.com Tour Finals. This would be a good place to grab some FedExCup Points as he went to the University of Texas and now calls Dallas home. Should be comfy in these Texas conditions. Let’s just hope he doesn’t pull a Robby Shelton on us. Not everyone can make the leap from college to the pros, seamlessly.

David Hearn… Finally felt that “contending feeling” last week in Puerto Rico, although he faded on the weekend. Perhaps that will re-train his memory on what it feels like to throw his name into the mix. Sets up nicely this week but he’s been hit or miss here, with two top 25s in seven tries but also three missed cuts.

Bernd Wiesberger… If conditions get tough this week, he’s always one that benefits from a tough layout. He’s a par-making machine which doesn’t help much on DraftKings, but might be suited a bit better on FanDuel.

Lee Westwood… Speaking of FanDuel, Westwood is another golfer that may find a place on my rosters over there. He’s been known to rocket out of the gates and then implode during R3 or R4. When I say, “he’s been known” I really mean “I can recall a few times.”

My Top 25 for the 2017 Shell Houston Open

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Adam Scott

3. Jon Rahm

4. Billy Horschel

5. Rickie Fowler

6. Matt Kuchar

7. Justin Rose

8. J.B. Holmes

9. Henrik Stenson

10. Tony Finau

11. Charley Hoffman

12. Russell Henley

13. Charles Howell III

14. Ollie Schniederjans

15. Daniel Berger

16. Phil Mickelson

17. Nick Watney

18. Lee Westwood

19. Bernd Wiesberger

20. Stewart Cink

21. Bud Cauley

22. Keegan Bradley

23. Patrick Reed

24. Jimmy Walker

25. David Hearn

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Preview

With March Madness is full swing, there is no better time for the PGA TOUR to slot the Match Play event. Bravo, now let’s see if we can break it down a little.

The course is Austin Country Club, a Pete Dye Design that plays around 7,100 yards. Last year was the first time it’s hosted this event and we saw Jason Day take down Louis Oosthuizen in the finale with Rory McIlroy and Rafa Cabrera Bello playinmg the 3rd/4th place match.

The first thing we notice is a lot of firepower. This wasn’t always the case back at Dove Mountain where there was a four-year stretch of winners that included Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald, and Ian Poulter. That could be due to the course setup favoring big hitters or partially due to the wind that this area of Texas will produce this time of year. Last year, the wind was 15 mph+ on 3-of-5 days.

There was a lot of chalk that hit last year, but again, that’s not always the case. Don’t be afraid to throw a dart in this format (Bracket Challenge) and don’t waste a top pick if you’re doing One-and-Done. The bad luck can go against a really strong play in the H2H format, as luck of the draw plays a big part in the Match Play format.

Sleepers

Alex Noren… His recent form is nothing to write home about but don’t that fool you. He’s a proven winner on the European Tour and his Match Play record is solid enough. He won five matches at last year’s Paul Lawrie Match Play and took down Dustin Johnson 5&4 back at the 2013 WGC-Match Play. They could be in for a rematch if both make it to the Elite 8. Noren attended Oklahoma State so he should be relatively familiar in this area of the U.S.

Jhonattan Vegas … Going with the Texas Longhorn angle here. Texas often practices at Austin CC so Vegas should know this track at least a little. Plus his group has Bubba Watson and Scott Piercy who are both struggling with form at the moment. Then Thomas Pieters who crushed at the Ryder Cup but how much of that was based on team strategy/playing with Rory/momentum/Hazeltine setup? Prior to the Ryder Cup his match play record looks quite disappointing (1-2-1).

My Champion

Jordan Spieth … He tops my rankings, which you’ll see below. The added bonus is his familiarity with Austin, Texas. He’s played the track dozens of times during his short stint at Texas and considers this his second home.

My WGC-Match Play RANKINGS … These rankings take a look at overall skill (Baseline SGT), Current Play over the last 10 weeks with an emphasis on volume of good play (Form), and performance in Head-to-Head Matches (Match Play Rating). For the Total Score column, I took Baseline + Form + (Match Play x 2). Feel free to weight however you see fit.

Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Preview

While the big boys tee it up in Austin, Texas, the real party will take place down in the Caribbean.

This week’s Puerto Rico Open takes place at Coco Beach Golf & Country Club. It’s a Par 72 that CAN stretch out to 7,506 yards. I say it can play up to that yardage because they will often move up the tee boxes when the wind rolls in (which it typically does). Since I started tracking wind in 2014, this event is the windiest on average, coming in at 18 mph. That means it’s probably a good idea to throw in some tee-time wave lineups this week. Keep your eye on the forecast to see if one wave looks to gain a clear advantage.

Not only does wind wreck havoc on the aerial attack, it also forces the greens to be slowed down. If they tried to get too cute then the greens could really get away from them. Luckily, they don’t try to test these limits and typically have the greens running between 10.5 and 11 feet on the stimp….SLOW GREENS, especially for golfers that were just putting at Bay Hill which was running 13 feet on the stimpmeter.

The greens themselves are Paspalum. Some golfers compare them to bermuda because of the graininess but the past results here actually show a higher correlation to bentgrass performance. Personally I won’t be looking at performance on particular green surfaces but other Paspalum events on TOUR include the OHL Classic and CIMB Classic.

While you don’t need to be particularly accurate on the par 5s this week, accuracy will be key to keeping the round together on the par 4s. That is why many golfers will club down on the par 4s. Finau hit 78% of his fairways on the par 4s last year. That’s obviously not the work of his driver. He was -5 when hitting the fairway on the par 4s but Even Par when he missed the fairway. Given that high clip of fairways hit, he was clearly clubbing down throughout the round. Over the last four years, the field has average just 47% GIR when missing the fairways on par 4s here, but 73% when they find the fairway.

You can tee it high and let it fly on the par 5s which is where the bombers will gain their edge back from the plodders. The front-nine par 5s in particular are a cakewalk. The field collects birdie or better around 50% of the time at each of these par 5s (Nos. 2 and 5). If your golfers go through this stretch without a birdie, you can let the tilting begin.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for a list of Wind Specialists, golfer qutoes, and other angles that may help you narrow down your rosters this week.

As for correlated events I’m looking at the Valspar, Valero Texas Open, RSM Classic, Barbasol, and Zurich Classic.

Players to Watch

Graham DeLaet… Like a broken record, if I say it enough times it has to be true eventually. This is FINALLY the week that DeLaet finds the winner’s circle. This will be his fifth appearance at the PRO. He’s finished top 25 very time with a T9 in 2012 being the best. This isn’t an event you want to become a course horse at, so hopefully he hoists the trophy this year and finds himself skipping next year to play in the Match Play. Wind doesn’t bother him either as he’s fourth in the field in terms of beating the field average by 2+ strokes when the wind is 14+ mph.

Graeme McDowell… One of the few golfers in the field who ranks higher in that wind stat I just mentioned for DeLaet. G-Mac is third in the field with only George McNeill and Alex Cejka rating higher. That’s no surprise for long-time G-Mac fans or backers. He always seems to thrive when playing near the coast which usually leaves the course susceptible to wind.

Peter Uihlein… The man that was so often compared to Brooks Koepka given the route that took, heading to the Euro Tour. Uihlein has remained overseas a bit longer than most probably expected. In fact, this is his first start on the PGA TOUR since the 2015 Greenbrier. He’s been a boom-or-bust stud on the Euro Tour and brings some nice course experience with him this week, finishing T6 here back in 2013.

George McNeill… Speaking of good course vibes, McNeazy has three top 20s in five trips here, including a win back in 2012. His form is not to be trusted but you could do worse if you’re looking for a deep sleeper that may burst.

Robby Shelton… I mentioned the Barbasol as one of the correlated events I’m looking at. Shelton finished T3 there, although it was a semi-home game, I still like that result. Then you have his pedigree while at Alabama, as he basically shattered every school record while he was there. What pushed me over the top was his performance in Puerto Rico while in college. Playing in the Puerto Rico Classic at Rio Mar CC (also in Rio Grande, PR) he finished T1, T4, and 1st over the last three years. Obviously that’s against collegiate competition, but he should feel perfectly comfy here in Puerto Rico. Head over to the Fantasy Golfanac if you want to see those PR Classic leaderboards.

Ian Poulter… Very close to locking down his full status, this should be an easy paycheck to help with the terms of his Medical Extenson. The problem with Poults is always his lack of a fantasy-friendly game when he doesn’t bring his best stuff, at least on DraftKings. Perhaps more of a FanDuel option this week.

Chris Kirk… Funny to say it, but Chris Kirk might be the class of the field. You could argue for a few others, but if we’re justing comparing resumes over the last five years then Kirk is right up there with G-Mac and Poulter.

Scott Brown… He’s a Weak-Field Warrior so it’s no surprise to see he’s racked up a win and three other top 10s here at Coco Beach, in five starts. The knock on Brown is always his ball-striking but this track clearly suits his eye, so I’m on board.

Luke List… The Birdie Machine will be turned on right from the get-go this week. If you’re looking for a golfer that is odds-on favorite to lead the field in tee-to-green play, then List is your man this week. He should feast on the par 5s.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Puerto Rico Open

1. Graham DeLaet

2. Graeme Mcdowell

3. Ian Poulter

4. Wesley Bryan

5. Chris Kirk

6. Luke List

7. Peter Uihelin

8. Scott Brown

9. Danny Lee

10. Robby Shelton

11. David Hearn

12. Seamus Power

13. Harold Varner III

14. Cameron Tringale

15. Matt Jones

16. J.J. Spaun

17. J.T. Poston

18. Fabrizio Zanotti

19. Alex Cejka

20. Bryson DeChambeau

21. Boo Weekley

22. John Peterson

23. Zac Blair

24. Brandon Hagy

25. Shawn Stefani