Josh Culp's Blog, page 16

Safeway Open Fantasy Preview

The new season gets underway this week in Napa, California.

The wine will be flowing all week, but so will the birdies. The course is being used for the fourth time on TOUR, the field has averaged 0.79 strokes under-par (per round) in the previous three editions. That includes a rain-soaked edition last year which helped the course play easier than ever.

That course is Silverado Resort and Spa’s North Course. A shorter, par-72 layout designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. It has since been reworked by Johnny Miller. Yes, that Johnny Miller. Like we see so often in California, the greens are poa annua.

What will it take to succeed off the tee this week? Andres Gonzales explained it well a few years ago, “You have to shape shots around trees. You can hit driver, you can hit 3-wood, you can hit whatever you want, but I don’t know if anybody is going to be overpowering the course except for on some par 5s.” There are nine driving holes where the field averages over 280 yards but also four holes where the field generally clubs down and averages less than 270 yards.

Like Gonzales mentioned, the par 5s are all reachable in two. The par 5s aren’t the only greens that are easy to reach. There are 11 holes where the field averages over 67% Greens in Reg (EASY to HIT). If you aren’t hitting greens this week, you are going to have a bad time.

Comfort in California (or the West Coast in general) is a nice thing to have in your corner this week, but it’s not the end all, be all. Looking for overlap in success, I found the following courses to be most correlated: Firestone CC, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Kuala Lumpur, Riviera CC, and TPC Scottdale. Close behind were a couple of Cali events (Farmers + Pebble) but the length of Torrey and the course rotation at the Pebble Pro-Am lowered those down the totem pole.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the event…

Players to Watch

Kevin Na… The Las Vegas resident will be playing with a heavy heart this week. He will also be playing with course experience on his side. After a pair of top 15s at this event when CordeValle was the host, Na was unphased after Silverado took over hosting duties. Since then he has finished runner-up and solo 7th. Had a mediocre 2017, by his standards but a pair of late-season top 10s proves that he’s rounded back into form.

Phil Mickelson… Loves playing in Cali, and his stellar week at the Presidents Cup probably has him feeling like a kid again. Posted a T8 in his Silverado debut last year. Should be good to go again.

Jamie Lovemark… At this event last year the USC product posted positive numbers in all four sub-categories of strokes gained. That bodes well for his chances this week, as it clearly fits his eye. The Cali native should enjoy the poa greens on tap this week. One of the few chances all year he gets to play in his home state.

J.J. Spaun … Sticking with the Cali-native theme, Spaun gained 4.5 strokes over the field with his long game at last year’s Safeway Open. His rookie season was slowed down due to a rib injury last year, but he rattled off a couple top 30s near the end of the season, suggesting his health is back at 100%.

Peter Uihlein… Remarkably he qualifies as a PGA TOUR rookie this year, despite having 30 PGA TOUR starts under his belt. It’s not that crazy by itself, but it’s just silly that he qualifies as a rookie while Jon Rahm didn’t qualify last year and someone like Beau Hossler won’t qualify this year. A simple rule change to Rookie Qualifications I’d make: A rookie is anyone who is playing their first season as a PGA TOUR member or reaches the FedExCup Playoffs for the first time. The latter caveat would have helped Rahm remain rookie eligible. Anyway, Uihlein is the real deal, and definitely the leading contender for Rookie of the Year this season.

Keith Mitchell… Sometimes a hot streak at the end of the Web.com Tour can bleed over into the wraparound season on the PGA TOUR. We saw Grillo win here immediately after a strong finish in the Web.com Tour Finals. Mitchell didn’t grab a win in the Finals but he did end his Web.com Tour season five finishes of T11 or better in his last seven starts. He is definitely someone I’m going to target early in the swing season. Other Web grads arriving in great form: Ben Silverman, Tyler Duncan, Andrew Landry, Chesson Hadley, Rob Oppenheim, Bronson Burgoon, Sam Saunders, Ryan Armour, Brice Garnett, Taylor Gooch, and Lanto Griffin.

Aaron Wise… Speaking of Web grads, Wise is one I really want to target. However, his stats just don’t stack up quite yet. The eye tests suggest that playing him now (on the West Coast) would be a good idea, but his PGA TOUR results have been mediocre. Perhaps, now that he’s locked up some status he’ll play a little more care-free. My gut is saying to plug and play him all fall, but my spreadsheet is telling me to take the wait-and-see approach.

Bill Haas… Billy has six career wins on the PGA TOUR. Three of those have come in the Golden State. If you want to lock in a top 30 with winning upside, Haas is probably the man for the job.

Keegan Bradley… I told myself I’m not going to play narratives this year, but Keegan had to be gutted to watch the Presidents Cup action at home instead of being a part of the team. Sometimes big events like that can spark some form out of golfers that used to be regulars in them. Bradley certainly fits the bill. Narrative aside, I like the fact that he gained 5.9 strokes approaching-the-green at this course last year.

My Top 25 for the 2017-18 Safeway Open

1. Kevin Na

2. Keegan Bradley

3. Phil Mickelson

4. Brendan Steele

5. Bill Haas

6. Tony Finau

7. Zach Johnson

8. Emiliano Grillo

9. Ryan Moore

10. Webb Simpson

11. Martin Laird

12. Sung Kang

13. Harris English

14. Jamie Lovemark

15. J.J. Spaun

16. Peter Uihlein

17. Luke List

18. Lucas Glover

19. Mackenzie Hughes

20. Ollie Schniederjans

21. Graham DeLaet

22. Jason Kokrak

23. Bud Cauley

24. Keith Mitchell

25. Chez Reavie

British Masters Fantasy Preview

While the PGA TOUR takes a one-week breather, the European Tour heads to England for the British Masters.

The course this week is Close House GC, making its debut appearance as a host. Speaking of hosts, Lee Westwood will be playing the role of player/host this week as he is a member at the course. We’ve seen in the past, that golfers sometimes struggle when they have to double their duties but he will know the course better than anyone in the field, so that is always appealing, as well.

The Lee Westwood Colt Course will be used this week, named after Harry Colt who you may know as the brains behind Wentworth. Right off the bat, that gives us a correlated venue to look at. The course is a very short, par 70 track with bentgrass/poa greens. As you’d expect on a short par 70 course, distance is not a requirement.

The course is designed by Scott Macpherson Golf Design and when describing it on their website, they say that “Brains will beat brawn on this layout.”

In addition to Wentworth (BMW PGA Championship), I will also be using the following seven courses as potential links: Crans-sur-Sierre GC (Omega Euro Masters), The Dutch (2016 & 2017 KLM Open), The Grove (2016 British Masters), Valderrama (2016 Open de Espana), Verdura (2017 Rocco Forte), Dundonald Links (2017 Scottish), and Roryal County Down (2015 Irish).

There will be a top 10 list of the top performers at those specific venues at the bottom, but first, let’s see break it down into individual chunks to see who could fare well based on this week’s setup…

Top Performers in Strong Fields (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Bernd Wiesberger

Alex Noren

Martin Kaymer

Andy Sullivan

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Ross Fisher

Thongchai Jaidee

Russell Knox

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Sergio Garcia

Martin Kaymer

Chris Wood

Rory McIlroy

Andy Sullivan

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Lee Westwood

Thongchai Jaidee

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Andy Sullivan

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Chris Wood

Sergio Garcia

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Lee Westwood

Ross Fisher

Top Performers on Short Courses (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Richard Bland

Bernd Wiesberger

Richie Ramsay

Julien Quesne

Alejandro Canizares

Pablo Larrazabal

Paul Dunne

David Horsey

Sergio Garcia

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Chris Wood

Bernd Wiesberger

Victor Dubuisson

Andy Sullivan

Thongchai Jaidee

Rory McIlroy

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tyrrell Hatton

Richard Bland

Alex Noren

Top Performers on Par 70 Courses (since 2015)

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Thongchai Jaidee

Alex Noren

Scott Hend

Danny Willett

Tyrrell Hatton

Rikard Karlberg

Raphael Jacquelin

Mikko Ilonen

Michael Lorenzo-Vera

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tyrrell Hatton

Lee Westwood

Bernd Wiesberger

Chris Wood

Andy Sullivan

Danny Willett

Rikard Karlberg

Anthony Wall

Golfers that show up on all SEVEN lists: Alex Noren

Golfers that show up on 6-of-7 lists: Bernd Wiesberger

Golfers that show up on 5-of-7 lists: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Chris Wood, Tyrrell Hatton, Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on 4-of-7 lists: Thongchai Jaidee

My Top 25 for the 2017 British Masters

1. Alex Noren

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Tyrrell Hatton

4. Matthew Fitzpatrick

5. Chris Wood

6. Andy Sullivan

7. Thongchai Jaidee

8. Rory McIlroy

9. Sergio Garcia

10. Lee Westwood

11. Martin Kaymer

12. Ross Fisher

13. Richard Bland

14. Rikard Karlberg

15. Ian Poulter

16. Shane Lowry

17. David Horsey

18. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

19. Richard Sterne

20. Dean Burmester

21. Russell Knox

22. Hao Tong Li

23. Jordan Smith

24. Scott Hend

25. Paul Dunne

Portugal Masters Fantasy Preview

As the PGA TOUR wraps up their season, we have a full-field event overseas in Portugal.

The course may have a new name, but it’s the same course that has been used here for years (Victoria GC). The course is described as flat and exposed with bentgrass/poa greens. There is water in play on seven holes and the field generally racks up the birdies in bunches here. It’s a week where we can likely put one or two golfers per round on ’59 watch’.

With past champs that include Paddy Harrington and Shane Lowry, I can’t help but think there might be some links flavor to this course.

For my correlated-course experiment, I’ve collected a bushel of courses that could fit based on course layout, location, scoring conditions, and grass types. The events I’m looking at include: 2015 & 2016 Italian Open, 2016 & 2017 KLM Open, 2015 & 2017 BMW International, 2015 Scottish, 2015 British Masters, 2016 Porsche Euro, 2017 Open de Portugal, and 2017 Rocco Forte.

Let’s see who could fare well based on this week’s setup…

Top Performers in Weak Fields (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Thomas Aiken

George Coetzee

Mikko Korhonen

Gregory Bourdy

Dean Burmester

Alexander Levy

Thomas Pieters

Wade Ormsby

Robert Rock

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Andy Sullivan

Danny Willett

Russell Knox

Hao Tong Li

Joost Luiten

Thomas Aiken

Richard Sterne

Bradley Dredge

Shane Lowry

Thomas Pieters

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Andy Sullivan

Shane Lowry

Joost Luiten

Danny Willett

Bradley Dredge

Richard Sterne

Thomas Pieters

Hao Tong Li

Gregory Bourdy

Nicolas Colsaerts

Top Performers on Easy Courses (since 2015)

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Victor Dubuisson

Andy Sullivan

Hao Tong Li

Shane Lowry

Danny Willett

Jorge Campillo

Alexander Levy

Stephen Gallacher

Lucas Bjerregaard

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Joost Luiten

Alexander Levy

Matt Wallace

Danny Willett

Oliver Fisher

Jason Scrivener

Shane Lowry

Eduardo De La Riva

Mikko Korhonen

Golfers that show up on all five lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on 4-of-5 lists: Joost Luiten, Shane Lowry, Danny Willett

Golfers that show up on 3-of-5 lists: Thomas Pieters, Andy Sullivan, Alexander Levy, Hao Tong Li

Golfers that show up on 2-of-5 lists: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Richard Sterne, Mikko Korhonen, Gregory Bourdy, Thomas Aiken, Bradley Dredge

My Top 25 for the 2017 Portugal Masters

1. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

2. Shane Lowry

3. Hao Tong Li

4. Thorbjorn Olesen

5. Alexander Levy

6. Joost Luiten

7. Russell Knox

8. Thomas Pieters

9. Padraig Harrington

10. Ryan Fox

11. Dean Burmester

12. Lee Slattery

13. Thomas Detry

14. Matt Wallace

15. Andy Sullivan

16. Mikko Korhonen

17. Richard Sterne

18. Gregory Bourdy

19. Thomas Aiken

20. Austin Connelly

21. Maximilian Kieffer

22. Jorge Campillo

23. Bradley Dredge

24. George Coetzee

25. Eddie Pepperell

TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview

I never have, and never will, claim to have all the answers when it comes to fantasy golf. I just try to give my analysis and hope it helps. Last week was a perfect example of just how wrong I can be.

I’ve definitely been more wrong, actually, because a lot of my core plays still hit. However, I did try to get really cute with the golfers I was fading. I faded Rahm and Cantlay due to lack of success on correlated courses. In hindsight, the small sample we had on Conway Farms was likely not enough to nail down correlated venues with confidence.

On top of that I faded Justin Thomas and Marc Leishman due to their crazy leap in short-game performance lately. The Thomas fade worked out but Leishman obviously did not. Lastly, at the last minute I also swapped out all shares of DJ and Kuchar due to some course history stuff I looked at. Again, 1-for-2 in those fades but it was costly since Kuchar was basically a free space at his salary on DraftKings.

This is a long way of me saying, “don’t get cute.” Don’t try to over-analyze things in fantasy golf or you may get paralysis by analysis. Whenever I start talking crazy on fades again, I need some commenters to remind me to KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid).

This week we wrap up the 2016-17 PGA TOUR season with the finale at East Lake. The course is situated in Atlanta, Georgia, a Donald Ross design that plays at just under 7,400 yards. Pretty lengthy for a par 70 layout.

The narrow fairways will lead to fewer fairways hit compared to most weeks (field average of just 53% fairways hit since 2010). Over the last four years the course setup has put a premium on hitting the fairways, with a huge differential of GIR percentage from the fairway versus greens hit from locations other than the fairway. The thick bermuda rough leads to a lot of uncertainty when it comes to attacking the pins here.

If one of the elite bombers is dialed in off the tee, they will have a huge advantage because it’s not a difficult course if you’re playing from the fairways, otherwise this comes down to a scramblefest. Having some comfort on bermuda is certainly a nice tool to have in your shed this week.

Don’t trust what I’m saying about the course? Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac to read some quotes directly from the golfers. The trend seems to be avoiding the rough and enjoying bermuda.

Based on course setup, location, and golfer performance, the following tracks are showing up as correlated courses this week: Augusta National, Firestone CC, Quail Hollow, GC of Houston, and TPC Sawgrass.

Players to Watch

Dustin Johnson… Four straight top 10s at East Lake, it’s clearly a course he CAN tackle. Off-the-tee, he’s outperformed his baseline SG OTT in his last three trips to East Lake. That is enough for me to consider him the favorite, at least least one of the favorites this week. Last year he was rooting hard for Rory to lose down the stretch since it would have made DJ $10 Million richer. Again, he will have a chance to control his own destiny so perhaps he can cap off his stellar season in spectular fashion.

Rickie Fowler… After another near-miss last week, there doesn’t appear to be any course or course conditions that can slow him down. He’s doing a lot of his work with the flat stick which I generally don’t like to tail but this has been going on all season, across all grass types, so I am just fine assuming he is just dialed in with the putter this year.

Jordan Spieth… Last week we said he sees a lot of Augusta National in East Lake, which is a great thing considering his sparkling record at Augusta. He also has a win and a runner-up in four tries at East Lake, so it’s tough to argue with that.

Daniel Berger … Has gone cold with the putter, losing nearly 10 strokes putting in his last five starts. Four of those have come on bentgrass, so perhaps he’s trying to pad his bermuda putting splits. Only joking, but Berger does have a lot of comfort down in the Southeast part of the country, so this looks like a good bounce-back spot.

Charley Hoffman… East Lake is a demanding driving course, which is generally where Charley shines. Back in his 2010 debut he had this to say about East Lake, “I mean, it’s instantly one of my favorite on TOUR now. It’s a good golf course. It rewards good ball-striking, and you can’t really fake it around this golf course.”

Kevin Chappell… Made his way into a playoff here last year, despite losing more than a stroke with the flat stick. You could take that as a positive (likes the layout, just needs to hit a few putts) or as a negative (doesn’t like the green complexes). I would lean the former as he’s shown a strong liking to bermuda greens compared to other surfaces on TOUR.

Hideki Matsuyama… It’s tough to see him struggling with the putter after shining for about a month. Matsuyama let it leak into other parts of his game last week. He’s the ultimate grinder, though, and I expect him to be in Atlanta early this week testing out 4,000 putters. Another good rebound candidate who may draw lower ownership due to his recent struggles.

Jon Rahm… The key to his consistency? He gets off to fast starts. He’s only lost more than half a stroke to the field in Round 1 during 9% of events played. That is best in the field this week. That number slowly declines throughout the week (he loses half a stroke to the field in 19% of his final rounds which is just sixth in the field this week). A roundabout way of saying he’s already established himself as one of the most consistent golfers on a round-to-round and week-to-week basis.

My Top 30 for the 2017 TOUR Championship

1. Dustin Johnson

2. Rickie Fowler

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Jason Day

5. Paul Casey

6. Jon Rahm

7. Matt Kuchar

8. Daniel Berger

9. Justin Rose

10. Hideki Matsuyama

11. Justin Thomas

12. Sergio Garcia

13. Patrick Cantlay

14. Brooks Koepka

15. Charley Hoffman

16. Kevin Chappell

17. Marc Leishman

18. Webb Simpson

19. Jason Dufner

20. Kevin Kisner

21. Gary Woodland

22. Tony Finau

23. Patrick Reed

24. Pat Perez

25. Brian Harman

26. Xander Schauffele

27. Russell Henley

28. Adam Hadwin

29. Kyle Stanley

30. Jhonattan Vegas

KLM Open Fantasy Preview

This week’s stop on the Euro Tour is a course called The Dutch which is fittingly in The Netherlands.

It’s a short course with five par 3s, just like last week. It’s only been used for one year, so 2016 KLM Open is the only course history we have.

Despite being inland and having water on 12 holes, most golfers consider this to be a links-style test based on the open nature of the course, mounds guarding the greens, and the fescue grass used throughout the property (fescue tee-to-green while the greens are bentgrass). As it often is with links-style design, wind will likely be a factor. Could be worth splitting tee times if you are creating multiple DraftKings rosters.

For my correlated-course experiment, I’ve collected a bushel of courses that could fit based on course layout, location, and grass types. The two main ones are Wentworth and Crans Sur Sierre GC. After that, I’m looking at the following events as possibly correlated: 2015 Italian, 2015 BMW Int’l, 2016 Open de Espana, 2016 Irish Open, 2016 BMW Int’l, 2016 Porsche Euro, 2016 British Masters, 2017 Rocco Forte, and the 2017 Scottish. Once I get some free time to connect the dots, I’ll be able to narrow this correlated search, but for now I’m just grabbing all the “possible fits”.

Let’s see who could fare well based on this week’s setup…

Top Performers in Weak Fields (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Brandon Stone

Thomas Aiken

Bernd Wiesberger

Julian Suri

Mikko Korhonen

David Horsey

George Coetzee

Dean Burmester

Chris Wood

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Andy Sullivan

Chris Wood

Thongchai Jaidee

Lee Westwood

Ross Fisher

Joost Luiten

Thomas Aiken

Alexander Bjork

Richard Bland

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Andy Sullivan

Chris Wood

Ross Fisher

Thongchai Jaidee

Lee Westwood

Joost Luiten

Julian Suri

Alexander Bjork

David Horsey

Top Performers on Short Courses (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Richard Bland

Alejandro Canizares

Julien Quesne

Richie Ramsay

David Horsey

Maximilian Kieffer

Robert Rock

Ben Evans

Bernd Wiesberger

Top Performers in the Summer (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Ryan Fox

Andy Sullivan

Fabrizio Zanotti

Joost Luiten

Richard Bland

Julian Suri

Thongchai Jaidee

Lee Westwood

Richie Ramsay

Top Performers on Links-Style Layouts (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Andy Sullivan

David Horsey

Anthony Wall

Richie Ramsay

Ross Fisher

Fabrizio Zanotti

Ben Evans

Paul Dunne

Richard Bland

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Lee Westwood

Andy Sullivan

Thongchai Jaidee

Bernd Wiesberger

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Ross Fisher

Joost Luiten

Chris Wood

James Morrison

Nicolas Colsaerts

Golfers that show up on all seven lists: Bernd Wiesberger

Golfers that show up on 6-of-7 lists: Joost Luiten

Golfers that show up on 5-of-7 lists: Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on 4-of-7 lists: Ross Fisher, Lee Westwood, David Horsey, Chris Wood, Thongchai Jaidee, Richard Bland

My Top 25 for the 2017 KLM Open

1. Bernd Wiesberger

2. Joost Luiten

3. Andy Sullivan

4. David Horsey

5. Lee Westwood

6. Richard Bland

7. Ross Fisher

8. Chris Wood

9. Thongchai Jaidee

10. Ryan Fox

11. Richie Ramsay

12. Julian Suri

13. Fabrizio Zanotti

14. Padraig Harrington

15. Anthony Wall

16. Paul Dunne

17. Alexander Bjork

18. Maximilian Kieffer

19. Aaron Rai

20. Robert Rock

21. Thomas Aiken

22. Ashley Chesters

23. Adrian Otaegui

24. Mikko Ilonen

25. Thomas Detry

BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

As the FedExCup Playoffs wind down, it’s time to start looking ahead to the next crop of Web.com Tour graduates. That is always a fun time (the fall) as most of the graduates are just getting their feet wet. It gives us some new names to research and analyze.

Before I jump too far ahead, let’s step back and look at the BMW Championship. This is one of the events that switches venues from year to year, with Conway Farms returning to host duties this year (2013 and 2015). If you’re new to the game or just need a refresher, have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac to see how the course typically plays. Be sure to read the golfer quotes at the bottom, as they can paint a nice picture of what you need to succeed at Conway Farms.

Conway Farms is located in Lake Forest, Illinois. It’s a par 71 that plays right around 7,200 yards. Pretty short by raw yardage but don’t mistake that for a plodder’s course. Yes, there are six holes where the field averages less than 280 yards but there are also two par 3s over 215 yards, five par 4s over 450 yards, and three par 5s over 585 yards. Depending on how you grade out course setup, this could definitely fall on the longer side of courses, despite the 7,200 yard tag.

If we look at the last two times Conway Farms has hosted, we see two very different pictures based on what the weather provided in terms of scoring conditions. In 2013, it was cold and windy. Wedge play proved to be very important as we saw Jim Furyk and Brant Snedeker lead at halftime before Zach Johnson prevailed in the end. All three are elite with their wedges. Steve Stricker and Luke Donald (home course) also finished inside the top 10.

In 2015, it wasn’t quite as cold or windy but they did get pelted with rain. That led to preferred lies in Rounds 2 & 3, which lead to the field shooting scores more than a shot lower per round compared to 2013 and appears to have given the bombers an edge. The final top 10 included big hitters like Jason Day, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler, J.B. Holmes, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, and Bubba Watson.

This year the early weather forecasts call for calm conditions in the mid 70s. I’m not going to tie my rope to one set of golfers based on statistics but it looks to be worth tossing in some “correlated lineups” in DraftKings and FanDuel. Try grouping some plodders together that can shine if it turns into a wedgefest again. After that toss in some bomber lineups. If the scoring conditions look like 2015 by week’s end, you’ll want as much distance in your lineups as possible.

Looking for correlated course this week, I ended up with The Old White TPC, East Lake, Muirfield Village, Firestone CC, and Quail Hollow. For a small sample size correlation, I will also look at Whistling Straits, another Midwest layout where Jason Day has shined.

Players to Watch

Rickie Fowler… Pretty Rickie has gained at least five strokes over the field in 15 of his last 17 starts on the PGA TOUR. He’s been locked in all year. He finished T39 in his Conway Farms debut (2013) but posted a T4 in 2015. I’m going to keep riding the hot hand and that makes Fowler the man to beat in my eyes.

Jason Day… He’s gained more than 25 strokes over the field in two starts at Conway Farms. That resulted in a T4 and a WIN. Neither look like a fluke, either, as he gained strokes in all SG sub-categories in both starts. I’m not leaning heavily on that course history element this week but I also like how his game has been rounding into shape over the past month.

Paul Casey… Much like Fowler, this is a case of riding the hot hand for the entire season. Keep it rolling.

Rory McIlroy … I just can’t quit Rory. He’s a spreadsheet darling, at least in the ways that I look at performance. Despite the disappointing results (by his lofty standards), his post-injury results have not been horrendous. He’s walking that fine line where he just needs his iron play to click. That’s a big if, but I’ve backed him this long, I’m not going to jump off now. Winner’s Circle Or Bust. Looking at correlated-course performance, Nobody has more wins on correlated layouts than McIlroy (4 wins). Also worth noting that Justin Rose has the most podium finishes on correlated courses (8) making him a nice play this week, especially if he stays under the radar.

Zach Johnson… Loves the Midwest so it’s no surprise to see he’s a past champ here. He needs the right scoring conditions to let him shine (needs the par 5s to play like three-shot holes so he can separate from the field with his wedge work). That can happen a few ways: weather or course setup. Both things are pretty unpredictable, which makes ZJ a middle-of-the-pack option with upside.

Kevin Chappell… Pretty awful in his 2013 Conway Farms debut (62nd) but returned in 2015 to post a top 25. We know he follows the Jason Day lineage in terms of course fit, and Day excels here. Could be riding high in anticipation of the Presidents Cup.

Xander Schauffele… Nearly all of his fridge-worthy performances have come on bentgrass greens. It’s still early in his career, but I’m going to keep backing him on courses that appear to fit his style. With The Old White TPC popping up as a correlated course, I will gladly go back to X since The Greenbrier was the site of his maiden victory. DraftKings did not get the memo here as they’ve literally made him a minimum-salary option. Hmmm.

Dustin Johnson… In 2015, scoring on the par 5s was crucial here at Conway Farms. All three of the par 5s are 585 yards or longer. Over the past two years, the golfers that have played these long par 5s the best are: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm Sergio Garcia, Luke List, Ollie Schniederjans, Charl Schwartzel, Kevin Chappell, Justin Rose, and Mackenzie Hughes. That should help DJ rack up the fantasy points, regardless of finish position this week.

Jon Rahm… This is where I start talking crazy, and you can ignore this if you want. Over the past few months I’ve been looking at the potential of fading golfers if they don’t have a top 10 at any of the correlated courses I pick out. It’s done farely well at picking out some good fades. This week there are two very notable fades: Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay. On raw stats, Rahm would be inside my top 10 and Cantlay would be inside my top 25, but instead you won’t see them listed on my top 25 since I’m not going to be using them. With a small-field, no-cut event, it’s time to start getting picky when it comes to narrowing down your list of DFS targets.

My Top 25 for the 2017 BMW Championship

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Jason Day

3. Paul Casey

4. Jordan Spieth

5. Dustin Johnson

6. Rory McIlroy

7. Matt Kuchar

8. Henrik Stenson

9. Justin Thomas

10. Justin Rose

11. Patrick Reed

12. Hideki Matsuyama

13. Zach Johnson

14. Charl Schwartzel

15. Kevin Chappell

16. Daniel Berger

17. Louis Oosthuizen

18. Brooks Koepka

19. Kevin Na

20. Bill Haas

21. Marc Leishman

22. Ian Poulter

23. Charley Hoffman

24. Keegan Bradley

25. Xander Schauffele

Omega European Masters Fantasy Preview

With the PGA TOUR taking a breather this week, the spotlight heads overseas to the European Tour.

Luckily, the Euro Tour is heading to one of the most breathtaking venues in the world, Crans Sur Sierre GC in Crans Montana.

Nestled in the mountains, this course lays just under 5,000 feet above sea level. That is just a few hundred feet shorter than Denver, certainly making these guys second guess their club selections. For me, that makes me want to target course history a little more, as some experience can only help when you’re dealing with yardage adjustments like this.

Another unusual thing about the course is the setup. It’s a par 70 but it has THREE par 5s and FIVE par 3s. The course is definitely on the short side of the equation with six par 4s under 410 yards.

Speaking of short courses, I’m also adding a section for correlated courses this week. The data I have on Euro Tour courses is a lot thinner than the PGA TOUR, but looking at grass types, location, and course setup, the following events/courses are on my list: Wentworth (BMW PGA), Valderrama (2016 Open de Espana), Dundonald Links (2017 Scottish), Verdura GC (2017 Rocco Forte), The Grove (2016 British Masters), The Dutch (2016 KLM Open), and Royal County Down (2015 Irish). I’ve included a list of top performers on these courses on the lists below.

Let’s have a look at some performance metrics since the start of 2015, to see who pops on this week’s setup.

Top Performers on Par 70 Courses (since 2015)

Danny Willett

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Thongchai Jaidee

Raphael Jacquelin

Rikard Karlberg

Michael Lorenzo-Vera

Fabrizio Zanotti

Florian Fritsch

George Coetzee

Joost Luiten

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Danny Willett

Chris Wood

Thongchai Jaidee

Lee Westwood

Tommy Fleetwood

Ross Fisher

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tyrrell Hatton

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Tommy Fleetwood

Ross Fisher

Lee Westwood

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Danny Willett

Thongchai Jaidee

Top Performers on Short Courses (since 2015)

Richard Bland

Joost Luiten

Bernd Wiesberger

Danny Willett

Pablo Larrazabal

Julien Quesne

Alex Noren

Richie Ramsay

Maximilian Kieffer

Robert Rock

Top Performers in the Summer (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Alex Noren

Ryan Fox

Tommy Fleetwood

Danny Willett

Joost Luiten

Rikard Karlberg

Fabrizio Zanotti

Richard Bland

Michael Lorenzo-Vera

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Joost Luiten

Bernd Wiesberger

Chris Wood

Tyrrell Hatton

Lee Westwood

Tommy Fleetwood

Peter Hanson

Anthony Wall

Paul Dunne

Golfers that show up on all six lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Alex Noren, Bernd Wiesberger, Danny Willett

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Tommy Fleetwood, Joot Luiten

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Thongchai Jaidee

My Top 25 for the 2017 Omega European Masters

1. Alex Noren

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Richie Ramsay

4. Julian Suri

5. Ryan Fox

6. Michael Lorenzo-Vera

7. Tommy Fleetwood

8. Joost Luiten

9. Richard Bland

10. Alexander Bjork

11. Robert Rock

12. Thomas Detry

13. Scott Hend

14. Lee Westwood

15. Matthew Fitzpatrick

16. Tyrrell Hatton

17. Thongchai Jaidee

18. Rikard Karlberg

19. Jordan Smith

20. Callum Shinkwin

21. Fabrizio Zanotti

22. Andrew Dodt

23. Ross Fisher

24. Alexander Levy

25. Paul Dunne

Czech Masters Fantasy Preview

After The Waterbed win in Denmark, the Euro Tour heads to Prague for the Czech Masters.

The Big Suri win was certainly one in the making, which adds to the list of trending youngsters that played their way right into the winner’s circle (like Jordan Smith did just before Suri). That could bode well for other popular golfers like Alexander Bjork, Aaron Rai, Ashley Chesters, and Thomas Detry.

The course this week is Albatross Golf Resort, a lengthy par 72 with bentgrass greens. There is water in play on seven holes and is played ~1,300 feet above sea level which isn’t a huge factor but makes golfers second-guess their club selections.

Let’s have a look at some performance metrics since the start of 2015, to see who pops on this week’s setup.

Top Performers against Weak Fields (since 2015)

Julian Suri

Mikko Korhonen

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Thomas Pieters

Martin Kaymer

Gregory Bourdy

Dean Burmester

David Lipsky

Wade Ormsby

Dylan Frittelli

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Martin Kaymer

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Lee Westwood

Thomas Pieters

Bradley Dredge

Alexander Bjork

Gregory Bourdy

Mikko Korhonen

Jordan Smith

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Martin Kaymer

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Lee Westwood

Thomas Pieters

Bradley Dredge

Julian Suri

Gregory Bourdy

Alexander Bjork

James Morrison

Mikko Korhonen

Top Performers on Long Courses (since 2015)

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Thomas Pieters

Jordan Smith

Martin Kaymer

Gregory Bourdy

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Bradley Dredge

Lee Westwood

Julian Suri

Alexander Bjork

Top Performers in the Summer (since 2015)

Thomas Pieters

Martin Kaymer

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Michael Lorenzo-Vera

Bradley Dredge

Callum Shinkwin

Lee Westwood

Thomas Detry

Jordan Smith

Julian Suri

Top Performers on Par 72 Courses (since 2015)

Martin Kaymer

Jordan Smith

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Gregory Bourdy

Thomas Pieters

Bradley Dredge

Alexander Bjork

Lee Westwood

Dylan Frittelli

Golfers that show up on all six lists: Thomas Pieters, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Martin Kaymer

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Lee Westwood, Gregory Bourdy, Bradley Dredge

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Jordan Smith, Julian Suri, Alexander Bjork

My Top 25 for the 2017 Czech Masters

1. Thomas Pieters

2. Matthew Fitzpatrick

3. Martin Kaymer

4. Lee Westwood

5. Bradley Dredge

6. Gregory Bourdy

7. Julian Suri

8. Jordan Smith

9. Alexander Bjork

10. Aaron Rai

11. Ashley Chesters

12. Michael Lorenzo-Vera

13. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

14. Dean Burmester

15. Mikko Korhonen

16. Thomas Detry

17. Jamie Donaldson

18. Dylan Frittelli

19. Paul Waring

20. Benjamin Hebert

21. Zander Lombard

22. David Lipsky

23. James Morrison

24. Julien Guerrier

25. Renato Paratore

Dell Technologies Championship Fantasy Preview

After the opening leg of the FedExCup Playoffs, the TOUR heads just up the road to TPC Boston for part two.

The sponsor is new but the course remains the same, TPC Boston. It’s an Arnold Palmer design but Gil Hanse came through in 2007 and provided a pretty hefty overhaul. Hanse also came through since last year and tweaked holes #12 and #13, but overall course history will still be very relevant at this par 71 layout.

The course is just under 7,350 yards now which doesn’t sound too long by today’s standards. However, when you break down the holes, it becomes very easy to see why bombers generally have a field day here. When bucketing the holes into short/medium/long categories, there are NINE of them that fall into the long category but just four in the short bucket. Add in the generous fairways and nonpenal rough and the picture becomes even sharper. Distance is a big advantage at this course.

Charley Hoffman backed up this statement a few years ago when he had the following to say about TPC Boston, “It’s a big golf course. The fairways are big. The cross bunkers, if you hit it longer, you can carry them. This is a big hitter’s golf course. Big advantage.”

At the same time, it doesn’t completely remove plodders from the equation since they will be hitting such a high clip of fairways. Zach Johnson said this back in 2015, “But this one, you’d be surprised, in the sense that I’ve got a lot of loft in my hands on a lot of holes. I was making the comment the other day, I want to say it’s 11 holes where I feel like I’ve got 8-iron on down.”

Looking for similar courses, I found the following layouts to be correlated: Firestone Country Club, East Lake, Bethpage Black, Doral, and Congressional. Two single-sample courses I’m taking a look at as well are Glen Oaks Club and TPC Potomac (ignoring pre-renovation sample, just using 2017 Quicken Loans).

If you want more info on the course setup and/or golfer quotes, check out the Fantasy Golfanac.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… Refuses to sit still with his clubs/putter selections but he’s not packing it in for the season. It would have been easy for him to fade to a missed cut last week after a poor start but he fought back. The demise of Rory is way overblown. Over the last 10 weeks he’s gained more strokes over the field than all but 14 golfers in the field. Last week he talked about external factors that are playing into the decision for him to peg it in the Playoffs… Could that include a bonus for winning an event during a calendar year? I have no idea, but I think he sounds very hungry to get back to that winner’s circle. He’s won at TPC Boston twice, including last year. If his ownership in DFS continues to stay below 15%, there is no reason to back off, in my opinion.

Dustin Johnson… Now that he’s picked up his FOURTH win of the season, he could make the Player of the Year race very interesting if he picked up another. Right now JT still has the edge since he has a major under his belt, but 5+ wins would be tough to ignore. If you still don’t trust Rory, then DJ is a great piece to anchor your squads this week.

Jason Day… First time posting back-to-back top 10s since last year in the same time slot (Runner-Up at 2016 PGA + T4 at 2016 Barclays). He would follow that up with T15-WD-WD. The Aussie felt just fine resting at the end of last season since he already had three wins under his belt, but he’s still looking for his first win of the season, so let’s keep riding the form train.

Patrick Cantlay … The way I evaluate players I will miss out on a lot of golfers that fly out of the gate. Cantlay falls in that category due to sample size, but he’s finally popping enough to shine through the small sample. Have him ranked 13th in the field in terms of weighted performance since 2014 and he showed last week that he can contend on a lengthy, Northeastern course. I know I’m late to the party but I’m finally ready to rage with PC.

Robert Streb… Had just one top 10 over his first 22 starts of the season, now has two since the start of July. Gained strokes in all four strokes gained sub-categories last week which means he can focus on the riding the momentum instead of tweaking parts of his game. I’m liking Streb this week as a bargain-bin option.

Charley Hoffman… The fight for the last Presidents Cup spot heats up this week. Hoffman is currently 10th in the standings but he’ll need a solid week to secure that spot. Luckily, he is a past champ at TPC Boston and has also gained more strokes over the field during the last 10 weeks of stroke-play events.

Kevin Chappell… If Hoffman slips up, then Chappie is the likely man to benefit. Chap is 11th in the Presidents Cup standings, just 23 points behind Hoffman for the final spot. Presidents Cup points = FedExCup Points x 2 so it’s basically a two-horse race between Chap and Hoffman this week. Both should bring their full attention to the table this week.

Paul Casey… His amazing run of form continued with a top 5 last week. Has finished top 30 in each of his last 10 stroke-play events. No reason to expect any different this week on a course that forces you to attack from tee-to-green.

Louis Oosthuizen… I haven’t dove into the WHY, but Oosthy almost always shines on courses with generous fairways. If we isolate performance since 2014 to courses where the field hits 65% or more of fairways then Oosthy ranks 8th in cut-made probability, 5th in top-20 probability, and 7th in top-5 probability. TPC Boston has fit that criteria in five of the past seven years, so he should be feasting from the fairway this week.

Patrick Reed… Riding huge wave of form but I have no clue what the status of his home is back in the Houston area. Golf is such a mental game that it’s impossible to say how a tragedy like that would affect him. Keep your ears peeled for any news about Reed (or any other golfers that reside in the Houston area).

Phil Mickelson… Already talked about the Presidents Cup narrative for CHOFF and CHAPPIE but we can’t ignore the narrative for Phil. Lefty sits way down at 18th in the standings, so he’ll need to rely on a Captain’s pick or have a monster finish this week. I know it shouldn’t be this way, but if Mickelson rattles off a top 10 this week he’s likely a lock for a Captain’s pick. How bad does he want it?

My Top 25 for the Dell Technologies Championship

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Rickie Fowler

5. Adam Scott

6. Paul Casey

7. Jason Day

8. Patrick Cantlay

9. Hideki Matsuyama

10. Sergio Garcia

11. Jon Rahm

12. Louis Oosthuizen

13. Brooks Koepka

14. Justin Rose

15. Matt Kuchar

16. Charley Hoffman

17. Kevin Chappell

18. Patrick Reed

19. Charl Schwartzel

20. Justin Thomas

21. Keegan Bradley

22. Marc Leishman

23. Jason Dufner

24. Phil Mickelson

25. Gary Woodland

Made in Denmark Fantasy Preview

All rejoice! We have the old European Tour website back.

That being said, we have a yardage conflict right out of the gate. When I pulled hole-by-hole for this week’s Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort early in the week (redesigned site) it showed a 7,382 yard layout. That is also what the “Lowdown” article lists on the European Tour website. However, the current site shows it as a 6,851 yard track which is what I have listed for the course last year. Although, I do have it as a 6,809 yard layout in 2015. Fun stuff. Did they really add 500+ yards since last year, did I have the wrong yardage last year, or is 7,382 yards an incorrect yardage?

If anyone has any insight on the actual yardage this week, let me know. In the meantime, I’m going to treat is as a SHORT COURSE with slow, bentgrass greens.

Now let’s have a look at some performance metrics since the start of 2015, to see who pops on this week’s setup.

Top Performers against Weak Fields (since 2015)

Thomas Pieters

Richard Sterne

Martin Kaymer

David Horsey

Bradley Dredge

David Lipsky

Julian Suri

Romain Wattel

Robert Rock

Wade Ormsby

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Soren Kjeldsen

Martin Kaymer

Bradley Dredge

Richard Sterne

Thomas Pieters

Rikard Karlberg

Richard Bland

Alexander Bjork

Nicolas Colsaerts

Paul Dunne

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Soren Kjeldsen

Martin Kaymer

Thomas Pieters

Rikard Karlberg

Bradley Dredge

Richard Sterne

Richard Bland

Nicolas Colsaerts

James Morrison

David Horsey

Top Performers on Short Courses (since 2015)

Richard Bland

Alejandro Canizares

Julien Quesne

Bradley Dredge

Soren Kjeldsen

Robert Rock

Paul Dunne

Thomas Pieters

Marcus Fraser

Ben Evans

Golfers that show up on all four lists: Thomas Pieters, Bradley Dredge

Golfers that show up on three-of-four lists: Soren Kjeldsen, Martin Kaymer, Richard Sterne, Richard Bland

Golfers that show up on two-of-four lists: Paul Dunne, Rikard Karlberg, David Horsey, Nicolas Colsaerts, Robert Rock

My Top 25 for the 2017 Made in Denmark

1. Soren Kjeldsen

2. Martin Kaymer

3. Alexander Bjork

4. Thomas Pieters

5. Bradley Dredge

6. Julian Suri

7. Paul Dunne

8. Richard Sterne

9. David Horsey

10. Rikard Karlberg

11. Richard Bland

12. Thorbjorn Olesen

13. Paul Waring

14. David Drysdale

15. Peter Hanson

16. David Lipsky

17. Nicolas Colsaerts

18. Benjamin Hebert

19. Ashley Chesters

20. Robert Rock

21. Zander Lombard

22. Thomas Detry

23. Stephen Gallacher

24. Matthieu Pavon

25. Daniel Im