Josh Culp's Blog, page 15

OHL Classic at Mayakoba Fantasy Preview

Just when we got all excited to have ShotTracker back in our lives, the PGA TOUR takes another vacation as they head to Playa del Carmen this week.

Other than the WGC-Mexico Championship, when heading out of the country, the TOUR doesn’t make the effort to travel with their ShotLink tools. Don’t worry, we will survive.

The event we’re prepping for is the OHL Classic which takes place on El Camaleon Golf Club. It’s played the role of host since the inaugural 2007 edition. Originally this event was held in February when the winds typically played a factor but since the move to November in 2013, the conditions have been rather calm. That looks to be the case again this week with the early forecast calling for winds under 10 mph and gusts are not forecasted to exceed 15 mph.

You will also notice the move to the fall meant a big uptick in the tournament purse. The winner now gets a big chunk of change. The winners since this change have been Harris English, Charley Hoffman, Graeme McDowell, and Pat Perez. All four have reached the top 40 in the world rankings at some point in their career. Not exactly shock winners. The three winners before them (Huh, Wagner, Beckman) have never cracked the top 60 in the OWGR.

The course itself is a sub-7,000 yard, par 71 track with seashore paspalum throughout the property. The grasses aren’t the main attraction, though. It’s the HAZARDs that draw all the attention. This coastal course features jungles, mangroves, canals, sand dunes, and even a giant sink hole. The sink hole doesn’t come into play but the golfers will definitely do their best to avoid the mangroves which can lead to big numbers.

Because of all these hazards, golfers will often club down off the tee at El Camaleon. At just 7,000 yards there is no need to rock the driver very often. It’s very cliché, but this is a second-shot course where approach and short-game skills will trump off-the-tee talent.

These golfers will back that up:

“I don’t hit it very far, but I feel comfortable out here. You don’t have to bomb it out here, you’ve just got to place it.” – Abraham Ancer

“I mean, this is a very tight golf course. You know, after maybe 10 to 15 yards of rough on each side, it’s just jungle, right?” -Ben Crane

“the hardest part for me is keeping my driver and my 3-wood in play on this golf course.” -Aaron Wise

“Well, technically it doesn’t suit my game. I mean, it’s really a course for shorter hitters, it’s not really long off the tee. You need to — there’s a lot of emphasis and importance on keeping the ball in play off the tee, so that means I’m not able to use my driver as much as I would like to” -Jon Rahm

“I’m still able to use my length by hitting 3-woods and 2-irons and moving it up the fairway still where most guys would have to hit driver and things. I hit one driver today” -Tony Finau

“I think I hit maybe two drivers all day. It’s just kind of one of those courses where you’ve got to hit the fairway.” -Daniel Berger

From a stat perspective, that would lead me to something like Distance from Edge of Fairway as a key stat this week. Missed fairways are fine, as long as you’re keeping it close and not spraying it all over.

Courses that graded out as potentially correlated include: Harbour Town, Sedgefield CC, TPC Kuala Lumpur, TPC Summerlin, and Waialae CC.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament history and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Gary Woodland… Woodland tossed his name into contention last week but faded outside the top 15 by the end of Sunday. Still, posting up inside the top 5 thru 54 holes last week is a good sign that his game is close. Finished runner-up here last year which gives him THREE runner-up finishes on paspalum greens (2 at the CIMB). Despite being long off the tee, he’s not afraid to pluck 2-irons out there and then pick his spots to capitalize with his distance.

Rickie Fowler… From a talent perspective, he is the class of the field. However he is making his course debut and really doesn’t seem like an ideal fit. Perhaps he let his new lady friend pick a new event to add to his schedule. Fowler surprisingly skipped the HSBC Champions after a four-year run at the event. With no PGA TOUR form since the TOUR Championship and Presidents Cup, Fowler becomes a big question mark this week. If he gets off to a good start on Thursday, I’d expect him to contend. If he stumbles out of the gate, he may just go through the motions and enjoy a nice vacation in Playa del Carmen.

Ollie Schniederjans… With fan favorite Cantlay hitting the winner’s circle last week, that puts Ollie next in line for fan favorites to win. Last week I cited Cantlay’s near-win at the Valspar as a good sign, being that Innisbrook graded out as a correlated course for me last week. This week I can say the same about Ollie. His two best finishes on TOUR? Runner-up at Wyndham and T3 at the Heritage. BOTH coming on courses that I highlighted as potential pointers this week.

Charles Howell III … Speaking of correlated courses, looking at data since 2014, nobody in the field has gained more strokes on the five correlated courses I mentioned than Charles Howell III. He’s also 7-for-8 here with six of them doubling as top 20s so we know that correlation translates to results. A very strong One-and-Done option if you want to sneak in a potential podium finisher and not wait until the Sony Open to burn him.

Anirban Lahiri… In his transition to the States, one of the biggest hurdles for Lahiri has been adjusting to grass types. This week we have paspalum greens which shouldn’t trick Lahiri too often. He’s a course horse at TPC Kuala Lumpur, and he arrives with some solid form this fall. A nice boom-or-bust option who finished T28 in his debut here last year.

Graeme McDowell… A short coastal course which means G-Mac is in play. He won here two years ago when he made his first return visit since the 2007 edition. Coming off a T10 last week, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him find a second straight top 10.

Abraham Ancer… Nothing in his PGA TOUR stats is going to lead you to picking him this week, but I do think he’s worth a flyer. He’s positioned himself inside the top 10 just twice after ANY ROUND on the PGA TOUR. Both of them came at this event last year, T5 after day one and T4 at the midpoint. He faded to T55 by week’s end but still pretty promising for this dual citizen of US and Mexico. If you read my Rotoworld article on Web.com Tour grads, then you’ll know I think Ancer could be ready to breakout this year. I’m not making Ancer a part of my core plays or anything extreme, but this is my gut play and I will take a few long shot stabs.

My Top 25 for the 2018 OHL Classic

1. Gary Woodland

2. Charles Howell III

3. Ollie Schniederjans

4. Ryan Moore

5. Rickie Fowler

6. Luke List

7. Byeong Hun An

8. Zach Johnson

9. Anirban Lahiri

10. Graeme Mcdowell

11. Kevin Streelman

12. Pat Perez

13. Patrick Reed

14. Bryson DeChambeau

15. Patrick Rodgers

16. Patton Kizzire

17. Aaron Baddeley

18. Chez Reavie

19. Shawn Stefani

20. Scott Brown

21. Kevin Chappell

22. Jason Kokrak

23. Charley Hoffman

24. Stewart Cink

25. Abraham Ancer

Turkish Airlines Open Fantasy Preview

With just three events remaining, the Race to Dubai race is really heating up as the tour heads to the Middle East and South Africa for the last three events. Everyone is chasing Tommy Fleetwood at the moment but that could all change with a few big finishes by any of his nearest competitors.

In similar fashion to recent PGA TOUR stops like the CC of Jackson and TPC Summerlin, this course grades out as very easy with plenty of birdies on the docket.

The defending champ has this to say about it, “I think it’s one of those courses, especially last year, where you can make ten or 12 birdies in a round.”

You better bring your scoring clubs because this is not a grind-it-out brutal test like the recent trip to Valderrama.

Looking at course lengths, grass types, location, difficulty, etc. the following five events showed up as possible pointers: Dubai Desert Classic, Portugal Masters, Italian Open, Alfred Dunhill Links, and Lyoness Open.

On top of those correlated courses, I will also venture through the record books to see who has the most success on the following angles…

Top Performers on Bermuda Greens (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Henrik Stenson

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Joost Luiten

Andy Sullivan

Jeunghun Wang

George Coetzee

Peter Uihlein

Justin Rose

Top Performers in the Middle East (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Henrik Stenson

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Victor Dubuisson

Joost Luiten

Chris Wood

George Coetzee

Jeunghun Wang

Andy Sullivan

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Andy Sullivan

Chris Wood

Soren Kjeldsen

Ian Poulter

Peter Uihlein

Tommy Fleetwood

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Bernd Wiesberger

Victor Dubuisson

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Soren Kjeldsen

Andy Sullivan

Tommy Fleetwood

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Henrik Stenson

Top Performers on Easy Courses (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Chris Wood

Tommy Fleetwood

Victor Dubuisson

Shane Lowry

Tyrrell Hatton

Justin Rose

Andy Sullivan

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Chris Wood

Tyrrell Hatton

Bernd Wiesberger

Andy Sullivan

Henrik Stenson

Marc Warren

Stephen Gallacher

David Horsey

Tommy Fleetwood

Joost Luiten

Golfers that show up on all SIX lists: Henrik Stenson, Tyrrell Hatton, Bernd Wiesberger, and Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Chris Wood

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Tommy Fleetwood

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Joost Luiten, Martin Kaymer, and Victor Dubuisson

My Top 25 for the 2017 Turkish Airlines Open

1. Tyrrell Hatton

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Chris Wood

4. Martin Kaymer

5. Andy Sullivan

6. Tommy Fleetwood

7. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

8. Henrik Stenson

9. Paul Dunne

10. George Coetzee

11. Joost Luiten

12. Ian Poulter

13. Justin Rose

14. Victor Dubuisson

15. Shane Lowry

16. Peter Uihlein

17. Thorbjorn Olesen

18. Matthew Fitzpatrick

19. Matt Wallace

20. Jeunghun Wang

21. Marc Warren

22. Jordan SMITH

23. Lee Westwood

24. Jorge Campillo

25. David Horsey

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Fantasy Preview

The TOUR heads to Las Vegas this week for the Shriners. Unlike the recent Asian Swing, we get a full(er) field with ShotLink and a return to reasonable viewing times.

The course is TPC Summerlin which has played the role of solo host since the 2008 edition. Prior to that it shared the host duties, so let’s keep the history to 2008 and in. As you’d expect playing in Vegas, we have desert golf on deck and the course is played in slight altitude, around 2,700 feet above sea level.

The course allows you to pull plenty of drivers but it’s not really a huge advantage to blast bomb after bomb since the course is extremely easy if you are playing from the fairways. Looking at GIR percentage from the fairway, the Shriners is right near the top (easiest) year after year along with courses like Kapalua, Sea Island, and Sedgefield.

That does bring the plodders into play since they can hit fairways, hit greens, and then HIT putts. Big hitters also have the ability to really take it deep here, but that is very dependent on how steady they are off the tee each round. Lastly, we can’t rule out the regional connection. Guys that grew up, live in, or went to school in Vegas or Arizona often show up near the top of the board here.

For correlated courses I honed in on easy-to-hit bentgrass greens, time of the year the tournament is played, the amount of drivers hit, etc. to narrow my search. Not all of these events check every box but these five courses graded out as potential pointers: TPC Scottsdale, Augusta National, Sedgefield CC, Innisbrook Copperhead Course, and TPC Boston.

TPC Scottsdale would be my favorite link of the week since it’s another course in the region. Desert golf in a bit of altitude on a course that allows you to pull drivers if you want.

Check out the Shriners Golfanac for more tournament details and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Webb Simpson… He’s a past champ at the course. Had this to say about TPC Summerlin back in 2014, “I love this golf course because it reminds me of the course I grew up playing. You have a lot of options off the tee, and greens are undulating and fast. So I’m just comfortable here, comfortable playing this kind of golf.” Looking at the last two months of action, he’s also gained the 6th-most strokes to the field in that time (looking at this week’s field only). Good form, good course vibes, and good course history… a recipe for success.

Tony Finau… Another golfer in stellar form. I mention the regional Vegas/Arizona connection. Finau should also qualify as he comes from Utah, just next door to Vegas so he should also be very acclimated to this style of golf. Posted a T7 in his 2015 debut here but has returned with fading results (T16 in 2016 edition and T41 last year). I expect him to reverse that trend this week.

Patrick Cantlay… Valspar graded out as a possibly correlated venue, and that’s the site of Cantlay’s best finish on TOUR. He is returning from China which is a bit of a concern since he was so hesitant to play back-to-back weeks last year. Other than that, I think it’s full steam ahead for PC.

Michael Kim … One of the better putters on TOUR and has plenty of West Coast ties. Over the past two seasons he’s gained 4+ strokes putting (in a week) on eight occasions. That includes +7.7 SGP and +6.6 SGP in his two visits to TPC Summerlin. His next best two putting appearances? The Farmers and Shriners… both West Coast events. This week’s course isn’t overly demanding from tee-to-green, so I like Kim to toss himself into contention at some point this week.

Anirban Lahiri… His recent meditation trip has re-unlocked his birdie making skills. He finished last season with a top 10 at the BMW and has opened the new season with a pair of top 10s in Asia. Will be interesting to see if that forms follows him back to the States but I think this week’s course certainly sets up well for him to keep it rolling.

Byeong Hun An… In similar fashion to Uihlein in Asia, An in the Desert is another strong trend that seems to pan out more often than not. If you look at this OWGR page and scroll down to his “Best Performances” then you’ll see that four of his 10 best finishes on the PGA TOUR/Euro Tour have come in the Middle East and one of them came in Phoenix (desert golf). Don’t let Benny slip through the cracks this week.

Aaron Wise… I wanted Wyndham Clark to crack this week’s field so I could play the “All Jeff Smith Core” of Clark, Wise, and Piercy. I’m sure there are even more in his stable but Jeff Smith is the swing coach for guys like Wise, Clark, and Piercy and he sets up his camp at TPC Summerlin. On his YouTube page he claims to have worked with Charles Howell III, Pat Perez, Brian Gay, Scott Piercy, Mike Weir, James Hahn, Erik Compton and Kevin Na. Not sure which ones are still currently with Smith but I know Clark and Wise are two of his prized ponies at the moment. Aaron Wise gets my full attention as he calls TPC Summerlin home, he finished T10 here last year in his debut, and he is just 34th in the Web graduate reshuffle. He could use a few more strong finishes in the fall to guarantee some extra starts when 2018 rolls around.

My Top 25 for the 2018 Shriners

1. Webb Simpson

2. Tony Finau

3. Ryan Moore

4. Anirban Lahiri

5. Byeong Hun An

6. Scott Piercy

7. Martin Laird

8. Kevin Streelman

9. Aaron Wise

10. James Hahn

11. Kevin Chappell

12. Patrick Cantlay

13. Gary Woodland

14. Kevin Na

15. Charley Hoffman

16. Michael Kim

17. William McGirt

18. Bryson DeChambeau

19. Smylie Kaufman

20. Luke List

21. Scott Brown

22. Jamie Lovemark

23. Shawn Stefani

24. Patrick Rodgers

25. Cameron Tringale

Sanderson Farms Fantasy Preview

The main attraction is taking place in China this week but there are plenty of really decent golfers hitting the links Stateside for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Since the move to the fall, the Country Club of Jackson has played the role of host course. This will be the fourth year in a row they will be playing that role.

Elite putters have won the last two editions (Cody Gribble and Peter Malnati) but Nick Taylor won three years ago and Luke List finished runner-up here last year. There are plenty of ways to get the job done here at the CC of Jackson.

There are a lot of mid-to-long range holes on the course this week. That plays into the hands of some of the bombers, allowing them to rip driver after driver. At the same time, the greens are incredibly easy to hit for everyone in the field, especially if you’re attacking from the fairway. The field average GIR percentage from the fairway has been north of 81 percent in each of the past three editions.

There is nothing challenging about the course, which allows elite putters to shine but the big hitters are able to setup plenty of eagle opportunities. It’s really a good ole’ fashioned shootout venue. Comfort in the South (and on Bermuda) is a big bonus this week.

While putting on Bermuda is a big positive, it’s also not end all be all. Events that grade out as potential pointers include: CareerBuilder Challenge, Sony Open, Genesis Open, Puerto Rico Open, and OHL Classic at Mayakoba.

Check out the Sanderson Farms Golfanac for more tournament details and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Chris Kirk… It’s been years since Chris Kirk has headlined a field, but here we are. There is something about Mississippi that really suits Kirk. He won this event back in 2011 when it was played at Annadandale. He’s returned three times, cracking the top 10 each visit, including a T2 last year, which was his first look at the Country Club of Jackson.

William McGirt… Par 72s are not generally the layouts to target Willy but when you get a field this weak, some of those stats can be thrown out the window. He loves playing in the South. In this field, only Chris Kirk has gained more strokes on Bermuda since the start of 2014. He also has back-to-back top 10s at this venue. A great spot to find his form.

Patton Kizzire… Another golfer who has lost his form, but should really feast on this type of layout. Kizzire has missed three straight cuts after a T9-T24 run at the Barracuda and Wyndham. A return to easier competition should provide a spark. These fall events against weak fields have been kind to General Patton, as his three best finishes on TOUR have come between October 16th and November 8th on the calendar. One of those was a T4 at this event just two years ago.

Brandon Hagy … Talent wise, Hagy easily pops the top 25 in this field, but the consistency has not always been there and he was forced to WD before his latest start at the Safeway due to a wrist injury. Finished T14 here last year but I will take a pass this week.

Blayne Barber… I keep waiting for the breakout to happen. If it’s going to happen, the odds are very good that it will come on a Bermuda course against a weaker field… Sounds like this week fits both criteria.

J.J. Spaun… Looking at this field and performance on Bermuda in 2017, Brian Gay actually gained the most strokes on Bermuda in 2017, followed by SPAUN. That makes him at least a little interesting this week.

Austin Cook… He’s missed the cut in his previous two visits here but this time around he arrives with PGA TOUR status already in hand. The University of Arkansas product should play a little more stress-free this week, and we know he’s very comfortable playing in the South. Other than his two missed cuts here, he’s posted top 25s in six of his other eight PGA TOUR starts. We have a nice breakout candidate on our hands.

My Top 25 for the 2018 Sanderson Farms

1. Chris Kirk

2. William McGirt

3. Austin Cook

4. Kevin Streelman

5. Matt Jones

6. Cameron Tringale

7. Patton Kizzire

8. Smylie Kaufman

9. Tyler Duncan

10. Ben Silverman

11. Brandon Harkins

12. Keith Mitchell

13. Tom Lovelady

14. Andrew Landry

15. Aaron Wise

16. Chesson Hadley

17. Ben Martin

18. Tom Hoge

19. Seamus Power

20. J.J. Spaun

21. Jason Kokrak

22. Blayne Barber

23. Harris English

24. Daniel Summerhays

25. Luke Donald

WGC-HSBC Champions Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR is sticking around in Asia for one more week as we ready for the first World Golf Championships event of the season.

The WGC-HSBC will take place in Shanghai, China, at Sheshan International Golf Club, like it has for all but one edition (2012 when Ian Poulter won).

The course is a par 72 that plays just under 7,300 yards. The makeup of the holes place it on the longer side of the course length spectrum, but it is certainly manageable for all in the field. The winning score has landed between 16 and 21-under-par in all but one edition. The grasses are seashore paspalum from tee-to-green but bentgrass once you reach the green surfaces.

Is it a distance or accuracy course? I would say neither (or both). Guys like DJ and Bubba have won here but guys like Knox and Molinari have also won. Plenty of other short knockers have also flown into contention like Kevin Kisner, Tim Clark, Ian Poulter, Freddie Jac, and others. In six trips (three official) Rory never landed on the podium. Distance isn’t everything here as it shows a dramatic GIR penalty if you miss the fairway around here.

A big part of GIR penalty for missing fairways is the fact there is water on 11 holes. If you are spraying the ball then you are playing with fire, or in this case, water. If you are looking for high upside plays on DraftKings or FanDuel then long hitters are still very appealing. They should rack up tons of birdies and potentially eagles, but they may throw in a double or two, along the way.

Looking at other courses that really require you to golf your ball, the following five courses popped up as potential pointers: Firestone CC, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Boston, Bay Hill, and TPC River Highlands.

Weather this week looks to be on the chilly side, like last week, but golfers will get a relief from the heavy winds that hit Jeju Island over the final three rounds. Winds look to be in the 5-to-15 MPH range for most of the week.

Check out the HSBC Fantasy Golfanac for more quotes on the course setup.

Players to Watch

Paul Casey… The Englishman has a pair of wins in China. He won the 2005 TCL Classic (Asian Tour event) and the 2005 Volvo China Open (Euro Tour). Sure it’s been over three years since he last cracked the winner’s circle and even that was in the less-than-stellar KLM Open. But, he continues to play well on a week-to-week basis, so it’s hard to turn away now. Even last week he managed a top 20, despite never really getting into a groove. That was his ninth top 20 in his last 10 starts. On top of that, I wasted him in my One-and-Done pool last week, so he is sure to pop this week.

Daniel Berger… I have a mental note stored on Berger to play him on any course where water is heavily featured. He’s mentioned it in pressers before that some courses fit his eye because they remind him of the courses he grew up playing in Florida where you need to be confident (yet smart) when taking on the water. That certainly puts him into play here as there is water on 11 holes at Sheshan. On a similar note, I’ve written the same thing about Alexander Levy on the European side, making them an interesting duo this week if you want to play that angle. Levy’s last few wins came on courses where there was water featured on at least 15 holes and he also reached a playoff at Green Eagle’s this year (water on 15 of 18 holes).

Ross Fisher… The Grey Fox has been hovering around the winner’s circle lately, finishing runner-up in his last two Euro Tour starts. Add that to his stellar record at Sheshan (T6 and T3 the last two years) and we have a good play in the making. Fisher launches it straight up with the best of them which certainly plays well on an often-soft Sheshan layout.

Marc Leishman … Cracked the playoff last week but couldn’t take down the reigning Player of the Year. He won’t have JT in his way this week as he looks to improve upon finishes of solo 9th and T11 in his last two starts here at Sheshan. I expect him to get right back into contention this week.

Patrick Cantlay… We was a pre-tournament WD last week, but I hope he still made the trip over to give his back some time to recover from the long flight. After the WD, I’m less optimistic about him playing an expanded schedule this year but he will still draw my attention any week he pegs it. He’s elite when it comes to landing greens in regulation which is the perfect recipe for success at Sheshan.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… Skipped some key events for the Race to Dubai, but he could jump back into 2nd place with a win here. Obviously, that’s asking a lot but he’s been in Asia for two weeks now and should be a bit more comfortable in that regard, compared to some of the other Euros heading over from mainland Europe. Playing on the Race to Dubai narrative, Tommy Fleetwood is in the driver’s seat and we should have his full attention for all four rounds this week, as every point matter for him as he strives to win the R2D. That certainly makes him an interesting option, but isn’t enough by itself for him to crack my top 25.

Hao Tong Li… He gets the superstar treatment when this event rolls around. He got Super Hero’d into being known as THE FORCE in last year’s pre-tournament sketches. The year before that he entered the final round just one stroke off the lead before fading to T7. Since that time he returned to win the Volvo China Open, making it five career victories for him as a pro, all coming in China. The 22-year-old is still looking for his breakout on the PGA TOUR, and this is definitely the right stage for that to happen.

Francesco Molinari… The big hitters will be able to feast on the par 5s this week but guys like Molinari will keep it between the pipes and grind the course to death. Moli has proven he can do that here, winning the 2010 edition (before it was an official PGA TOUR event). He also finished T6 last year and is coming off a T6 in his latest Euro Tour start.

Peter Uihlein… The Uihlein in Asia narrative pops again. Even though he just missed out on my top 25, I think you could make a case for him to replace anyone outside the top 15 of my rankings below. I don’t see him winning in a field like this but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him fling himself into contention, racking up a bunch of birdies along the way.

My Top 25 for the 2017-18 WGC-HSBC Champions

1. Paul Casey

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Justin Rose

4. Hideki Matsuyama

5. Marc Leishman

6. Henrik Stenson

7. Francesco Molinari

8. Daniel Berger

9. Matthew Fitzpatrick

10. Ross Fisher

11. Xander Schauffele

12. Matt Kuchar

13. Adam Scott

14. Jon Rahm

15. Rafa Cabrera Bello

16. Alex Noren

17. Tony Finau

18. Brooks Koepka

19. Patrick Reed

20. Pat Perez

21. Jason Day

22. Kyle Stanley

23. Patrick Cantlay

24. Hao Tong Li

25. Thorbjorn Olesen

Valderrama Masters Fantasy Preview

After back-to-back wins for Tyrrell Hatton, the Englishman opts for a week of rest to allow for a new winner on the Euro Tour this week.

The golfers head to Spain to take on Valderrama, a classical no-nonsense layout. If you are claustrophobic, you should probably plan on slamming your trunk early this week. It’s a Robert Trent Jones design that plays just under 7,000 yards. Distance is definitely not an advantage here.

Looking at course lengths, grass types, location, difficulty, etc. the following five courses showed up as possible pointers: Wentworth, Royal Golf Dar Es Salam, Crans Montana, Pretoria, and The Dutch.

On top of those correlated courses, I will also venture through the record books to see who has the most success on the following angles…

Top Performers on Short Courses(since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Pablo Larrazabal

Julien Quesne

Richard Bland

Maximilian Kieffer

Alejandro Canizares

Soren Kjeldsen

Ben Evans

Robert Rock

Sergio Garcia

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Soren Kjeldsen

Sergio Garcia

Martin Kaymer

Andy Sullivan

Jon Rahm

Joost Luiten

Danny Willett

Shane Lowry

Bradley Dredge

Alexander Bjork

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Soren Kjeldsen

Andy Sullivan

Martin Kaymer

Sergio Garcia

Shane Lowry

Jon Rahm

Joost Luiten

Bradley Dredge

Julian Suri

Gregory Bourdy

Top Performers against Weak Fields (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Julian Suri

Mikko Korhonen

Gregory Bourdy

Martin Kaymer

Alexander Bjork

Wade Ormsby

Romain Wattel

Robert Rock

Ashun Wu

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Soren Kjeldsen

Andy Sullivan

Shane Lowry

Richard Bland

Martin Kaymer

Peter Hanson

Stephen Gallacher

Florian Fritsch

Gregory Bourdy

Joakim Lagergren

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Danny Willett

James Morrison

Julien Quesne

Pablo Larrazabal

Shane Lowry

Andrew Johnston

Alexander Bjork

Nino Bertasio

Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on all SIX lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Joost Luiten

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Soren Kjeldsen, Martin Kaymer, Shane Lowry, Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Sergio Garcia, Alexander Bjork, Gregory Bourdy

My Top 25 for the 2017 Valderrama Masters

1. Joost Luiten

2. Sergio Garcia

3. Shane Lowry

4. Martin Kaymer

5. Gregory Bourdy

6. Jon Rahm

7. Julian Suri

8. Matt Wallace

9. Mikko Korhonen

10. Alexander Bjork

11. Romain Wattel

12. Joakim Lagergren

13. Robert Rock

14. Ricardo Gouveia

15. Bradley Dredge

16. Mikko Ilonen

17. Lee Slattery

18. Stephen Gallacher

19. Nino Bertasio

20. Ashley Chesters

21. Aaron Rai

22. Thomas Detry

23. Richard Bland

24. Nacho Elvira

25. Chris Hanson

The CJ CUP @ Nine Bridges Fantasy Preview

When a new course hits the PGA TOUR schedule, it is always fun to breakdown the new venue and guess how it will play.

This week, we have the chance to look at The Club at Nine Bridges as the TOUR readies for their first-ever tournament played in South Korea.

The visionary behind this week’s course is Jay Lee, the grandson of the Samsung founder. Apparently, he’s also being sentenced to five years in jail right now, unless that’s another Jay Lee from South Korea. Anyway, Lee is/was a member at Riviera Country Club so he knows good course architecture. His net worth also exceeds $7 Billion, so he also knows how to spend (and make) money. Remember those two go hand-in-hand, right?

When building The Club at Nine Bridges, he didn’t hold back. He found some property on Jeju Island (Honeymoon Island) and brought in bentgrass greens, which is very rare for this part of the world, given the climate. However, they call it “The Finest Western Turf” so he couldn’t build the course without bentgrass surfaces, even if it does mean throwing dollars down the drain each year trying to keep it playable in all weather conditions.

In July, particularly, the average rainfall is more than double a city like Seattle’s highest rainfall month, a city known for its rain. Luckily, October is not one of the rainier months for Jeju Island, so we should get clear conditions, although temps are not forecasted above 70 degrees all week, so it will be a stark contrast from last week’s hot and humid conditions. Pretty similar to some of the events in January and February on TOUR, though.

From there, the course is inspired by Scottish golf (bunker styling), played at 3,500 feet above sea level, and is very well manicured. It receives a yearly accolade of Top 100 Courses Outside the United States.

As a par 72 playing to just 7,198 yards it is on the shorter side of the length spectrum but nothing extreme. There is water on at least four holes, with the closing, par-5 18th being the most notable. Golfers in this no-cut field will take on an island green at the closing par 5, likely requiring an above-average tee shot to have a go at the green in two.

At 3,500 feet above sea level, that is nothing like Crans Montana but it is just enough to make you second guess on club selection. Some PGA TOUR courses played above 1,500 feet include TPC Scottdale, TPC Summerlin, and The Old White TPC. Those COULD prove as relevant pointers, but that’s pure speculation as we haven’t seen how this course will play.

Other than elevation, we can look at course length, grass types, time of the season played, etc. to find some correlated events. The search is going to be a bit more guesswork than most weeks since we have ZERO course history to test on. Still, I’ve picked out five events that could play similarly: CIMB Classic, WGC-HSBC (Sheshan), Waste Management Phoenix Open, Farmers Insurance Open, and the Genesis Open.

Other fantasy golfanac angles we can look at include performance on bentgrass, performance in the fall, performance in no-cut events, performance in cold weather, and performance on par 72 courses.

Players to Watch

Justin Thomas… Couldn’t pull off the three-peat last week but that doesn’t make him any less appealing this week. Another no-cut event where Thomas can let his fantasy-friendly game go to town. Should be better acclimated to the time zone than some of the Americans who just flew in over the weekend.

Daniel Berger… Another star in no-cut events, Berger should be aggressive all week. He has winning upside but we really want to target him on FanDuel or DraftKings because he is the type of golfer that can can rack up birdies and eagles in bunches and easily outperform golfers (from a fantasy perspective) that finish ahead of him in the standings.

Ian Poulter… He has loads of success in Asia, and is trying to play his way back into the Ryder Cup conversation this year. Not the flashiest star in the sky, but he should bring his best stuff week in and week out for the next 10 months.

Marc Leishman … Finished the Playoffs with a third-place finish and a win before settling for T24 at East Lake. The Presidents Cup didn’t go as he’d hoped but the good form is not far removed. On paper, he looks like a top-5 type of play this week. With the new baby at home, I would be a little worried about fatigue. We don’t need to pile jetlag onto the plate of a dad who is probably already lacking in the sleep department. Of course, if mother and kids stay back in the States this week, he could be setup for the best sleep he’s had in weeks. This puzzle is not easily solved, best to lean on the Nappy Factor experts on this one.

Patrick Cantlay… Last year I would have made up a narrative to avoid PC in this spot. A guy with a history of back troubles making a long journey across the world. Spending all that time in a plane can really stiffen a back. Add in the relatively cool temperatures this week, and we have a recipe for back troubles for guys like Cantlay, J. Day, DeLaet, Si Woo, Danny Lee, etc. That was the old me, though. This year, I’m trying not to get caught up in the web of narrative-based plays. Instead, I think Cantlay could come firing out of the gates to open the season. Making the long journey to Asia for two events says that he’s ready to expand his schedule this season so let’s stay on the train until he gives us a reason to jump. UPDATE: Cantlay is a pre-tourney WD, so scratch all of that. Hopefully he can still tee it up in Shanghai next week.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… Very odd to skip some key events on the Euro Tour, given he was 4th in the Race to Dubai entering last week. At the same time, it’s hard to pass up free FedExCup Points that will help him retain his PGA TOUR card for next season. He doesn’t have the course history like he did last week at TPC Kuala Lumpur, but he’s nice and warmed up now after returning from a short break at season’s end. Should be in the mix again this week.

Xander Schauffele… When asked about the course fit at TPC KL last week he responded with, “You know, I thought it didn’t [fit me], but I guess I’m hitting it in most of the fairways and I figure the greens would be kind of tough for me since they’re a little slow.” That is how locked in the SDSU product is right now. Was in contention all week on a course that didn’t fit his eye.

Keegan Bradley… People love to hate on Keegan but his finishing positions are not as extreme as his round-to-round scoring. Sure, he hasn’t hit the winner’s circle in a while and he’ll often back up a round of 65 with a round of 75 but he has also averaged more birdies per round than the field’s he faced in 10 of his last 11 events played. He’s a birdie maker which is exactly what we need on DraftKings and FanDuel. After a runner-up last week, I see him parlaying that into another good week at Nine Bridges. Another slate of four par 5s which is where Keegan can really feast.

Tony Finau… Speaking of par 5s, the big Samoan should enjoy some island golf this week in Korea. Kicking off with his top 5 at the Valspar last year, he’s beat the field average by 4 or more strokes (for the week) in 13 of his last 19 starts. Hard to argue with those kind of results.

Sung Kang… Plenty of Koreans in the field this week, but Kang would be my favorite this week. He’s coming off a T3 last week in Malaysia. He has some success with winning in Korea. Back in 2013 he actually finished 1st on the KPGA Korean Tour money list despite pegging it in just four events. That is because he came in like a wrecking ball and won the CJ Invitational and Korean Open in back-to-back weeks. He beat out notables like Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Rory McIlroy in those events. Could this finally be the week that Kang reaches the winner’s circle? The odds are not great, but certainly higher than most weeks.

My Top 25 for the 2017-18 CJ Cup

1. Justin Thomas

2. Xander Schauffele

3. Paul Casey

4. Daniel Berger

5. Keegan Bradley

6. Tony Finau

7. Patrick Cantlay Cantlay a Monday WD; Add Thomas Pieters at #25

8. Marc Leishman

9. Sung Kang

10. Ian Poulter

11. Rafa Cabrera Bello

12. Luke List

13. Emiliano Grillo

14. Kevin Na

15. Graeme McDowell

16. Russell Henley

17. Branden Grace

18. Charl Schwartzel

19. Patrick Reed

20. Anirban Lahiri

21. Jason Day

22. Gary Woodland

23. James Hahn

24. Adam Scott

25. Pat Perez

Italian Open Fantasy Preview

The Golf Club of Milano plays the role of host for the third straight year as we ready for the fifth event of the Rolex Series.

The addition of the Rolex Series will help explain the big uptick in field strength this year.

The course looks to be a par 71 that plays around 7,150 yards and features bentgrass/poa putting surfaces. The field has averaged around 1.66 strokes under-par, per round, so it’s kind of a cakewalk unless the weather says otherwise.

For correlated courses, I’m sticking the mainland Europe and looking for mid-length courses with bentgrass/poa greens. The following events are what I will use: 2015 thru 2017 Lyoness Open, 2016 and 2017 Czech Masters, 2015 and 2016 Porsche Euro Open, 2015 and 2017 BMW International, 2015 thru 2017 Open de France, and 2015 thru 2017 Portugal Masters. That is a total of 15 tournaments, which might give us a good snapshot of who fits the course.

On top of those correlated courses, I will also venture through the record books to see who has the most success on the following angles…

Top Performers on Easy Courses(since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Byeong Hun An

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Victor Dubuisson

Tommy Fleetwood

Peter Hanson

Alex Noren

Shane Lowry

Francesco Molinari

Martin Kaymer

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Francesco Molinari

Bernd Wiesberger

Sergio Garcia

Martin Kaymer

Andy Sullivan

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tyrrell Hatton

Byeong Hun An

Ross Fisher

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Francesco Molinari

Tyrrell Hatton

Bernd Wiesberger

Andy Sullivan

Martin Kaymer

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tommy Fleetwood

Ross Fisher

Sergio Garcia

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Byeong Hun An

Bernd Wiesberger

Francesco Molinari

Alex Noren

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Andy Sullivan

Ross Fisher

Thongchai Jaidee

Richard Sterne

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Chris Wood

Byeong Hun An

Thongchai Jaidee

Victor Dubuisson

Branden Grace

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tyrrell Hatton

Tommy Fleetwood

Shane Lowry

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Andy Sullivan

Ross Fisher

Thongchai Jaidee

Tommy Fleetwood

Joost Luiten

Francesco Molinari

Lucas Bjerregaard

James Morrison

Lee Westwood

Golfers that show up on all SIX lists: Bernd Wiesberger

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Francesco Molinari, Ross Fisher, Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Martin Kaymer, Byeong Hun An

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Thongchai Jaidee

My Top 25 for the 2017 Italian Open

1. Matthew Fitzpatrick

2. Jon Rahm

3. Bernd Wiesberger

4. Tyrrell Hatton

5. Ross Fisher

6. Francesco Molinari

7. Alex Noren

8. Tommy Fleetwood

9. Martin Kaymer

10. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

11. Shane Lowry

12. David Horsey

13. Richard Sterne

14. Graeme McDowell

15. Paul Dunne

16. Victor Dubuisson

17. Julian Suri

18. Anthony Wall

19. Lee Westwood

20. Alexander Bjork

21. Graeme Storm

22. Ryan Fox

23. Eddie Pepperell

24. Benjamin Hebert

25. Sergio Garcia

CIMB Classic Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR heads to Asia for the first (of three) straight events in the Far East. That includes the CJ Cup next week in South Korea, which looks to be taking place on a phenomenal course. I’m excited to see that one, especially the closing island-green par 5.

But first, we head to TPC Kuala Lumpur for the fifth edition of this event hosted by the course. It also hosted the Euro Tour’s Maybank Malaysian Open from 2010 to 2015.

The course is a short, par-72 layout with feastable par 5s and seashore paspalum greens. The field is just 78 golfers and there is NO CUT.

Given the climate in the area (hot, wet, and sticky) we should expect to see preferred lies in play for most (or all) of the week. That has been the norm here, as they’ve played lift, clean, and place, for at least 14 of the 16 CIMB Classic rounds. I say at least because the reporting on preferred lies is not always there, but 14 have been reported as LCP.

We have four years of CIMB history here, but just two different winners. Ryan Moore won the first two editions while Justin Thomas has won the last two. They are complete opposites in terms of the distance/accuracy spectrum, but they are both elite in strokes gained approach and proximity to the hole. With Ryan Moore describing this as a “position golf course” that makes sense. The off-the-tee game doesn’t mean as much this week since golfers will have to lay back frequently and hit into the same landing zones, but approach should be of utmost importance.

As for the scoring conditions, there were 23 eagles here last year and 44 eagles the year before that. That’s an extremely high ratio, given the small field size. We should see some monster scores on FanDuel and DraftKings this week.

James Hahn did a great job to summarize the course conditions here a few years ago,

“You definitely have to be in shape to walk the golf course in this humidity and the heat.

You have to hit a lot of great shots out there. A lot of great tee shots, put yourself in the fairway, to where you can lift, clean and place it.

When you’re off in the rough, you get fliers and the ball’s not stopping on the greens from the rough.

The greens are a little slow compared to PGA TOUR conditions, but they roll true.”

Looking for crossover success (Correlated Courses), the following events showed promise: WGC Bridgestone, Safeway (Silverado), Wyndham, The Masters, and TPC Boston.

Check out the CIMB Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the event…

Players to Watch

Justin Thomas… Coming off a career season and he’s the defending (two-time) champ at the course. Hard to not peg him as the man to beat this week. Will he ever get tired of winning? Should rack up the hole-by-hole points on this course, regardless of finishing position.

Peter Uihlein… The favorite for Rookie of the Year got off to a slow start in Napa. Heading to Asia this week, he should be very comfy. Since 2015 on the Euro Tour, nobody has gained more strokes in Asia than Uihlein. That makes him a very nice rebound candidate this week. Others near the top of that list in top strokes gained in Asia include Scott Hend, David Lipsky, and Anirban Lahiri.

Luke List… The Luke List Chalk Week didn’t crush anyone last week but it also didn’t live up to full expectations. Now we head to another course with an easy pack of par 5s. Should be right up his alley, again.

Anirban Lahiri … Didn’t get the redemption he wanted at the Presidents Cup but he should be ready to rock at a very familiar course. Looking at performance at TPC KL (including the Malaysian Open), nobody in this field has gained more strokes on the field than Anirban. That includes a win at the 2015 Malaysian. He was also the solo leader after 54 holes here last year (his only 54-hole lead on TOUR) before fading to T3. Course Horse.

Scott Hend… Built in the same mold as guys like Luke List, Thomas Pieters, Harold Varner III, Grayson Murray, Patrick Rodgers, etc… these guys all have elite upside when it comes to playing courses with easy par 5s. The form of guys like Pieters and Rodgers are a bit concerning, but Hend has been playing well, worldwide, over the past few months. Should enjoy a trip that takes him closer to home. He was second on that list of most strokes gained in Asia (Euro Tour) since 2015, that I pointed out in Uihlein’s blurb.

Poom Saksansin… Looking for deep sleepers this week, Poom might be someone to consider. The 24-year-old Thai fighter has three wins worldwide (1 on Asian Development Tour and 2 on Asian Tour). Possibly more impressive, he’s finished T16 and T28 in his recent Euro Tour starts (Euro Masters and European Open). Priced at $7,300 this week, we should see extremely low ownership here since you could save $200 and take the local who won in his latest start, Gavin Green, or punt at min-salary with someone like Jazzy J. They all offer similar risks and upside, IMO, but Poom will provide the lowest ownership.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… He’s been dormant since the BMW Championship. Well-rested or rusty? That is yet to be determined. What stands out is his history at TPC KL. He finished T10 last year in his CIMB debut. On top of that he owns a pair of top 5s at the Malaysian Open. Should fly in way under the radar, but he packs plenty of upside, as usual.

Hao Tong Li… Should be comfortable playing in Asia, in terms of climate and grass types. Going back to that list of strokes gained in Asia, Li would have ranked 5th on the list for total strokes gained but looking at a per-round basis, he would be #2 since 2015, squeezing in betewen Lahiri and Uihlein. This event offers a good opportunity to pad some Non-member FedExCup Points, if the youngster is looking to make the jump to the PGA TOUR by earning Special Temporary Membership.

Kevin Na… Looking at performance in rounds using Lift, Clean, and Place (since 2014), Kevin Na has gained the most strokes over the field in those rounds (in this week’s field). He keeps it between the pipes which lets him clean his ball more often than the field. A similarly accurate golfer (Russell Knox) checks it at #4 on the Lift, Clean, and Place list. Both could be in for a good week after disappointing fantasy owners in their latest starts.

My Top 25 for the 2017-18 CIMB Classic

1. Justin Thomas

2. Hideki Matsuyama

3. Paul Casey

4. Brendan Steele

5. Rafa Cabrera Bello

6. Emiliano Grillo

7. Luke List

8. Kevin Na

9. Keegan Bradley

10. Russell Knox

11. Anirban Lahiri

12. Peter Uihlein

13. Gary Woodland

14. Branden Grace

15. Grayson Murray

16. Scott Hend

17. Adam Hadwin

18. Graham DeLaet

19. Charl Schwartzel

20. Scott Piercy

21. Xander Schauffele

22. Ian Poulter

23. Jamie Lovemark

24. Harold Varner III

25. Hudson Swafford

Alfred Dunhill Links Fantasy Preview

With NHL starting, the PGA TOUR returning, and NFL in full swing, the Euro Tour product is getting pushed to the back of the pile, from a DraftKings perspective. Hopefully, that changes when some of the big events hit the schedule over the next few months. Four of the next six events are a part of Rolex Series, so we should see some star-studded fields.

As for this week, we have a pro-am played across three iconic links venues in Scotland. As you’d expect with a fall event played in the UK, the weather will likely play a big role. If you are playing on DraftKings this week, consider stacking tee-time waves and or stacking starting courses. Also, with three guaranteed rounds, targeting birdie and eagle makers will be as important as ever.

Looking for correlated courses, I’m going to take a peek at Wentworth as well as the following events: 2017 Scottish, 2017 British Masters, 2016 British Masters, 2016 Irish, and 2015 Irish. These are all shorter courses played in the GB&I area.

Now for some performance trends…

Top Performers on Links Layouts (since 2015)

Tyrrell Hatton

Tommy Fleetwood

Graeme McDowell

Richard Sterne

Bradley Dredge

Richie Ramsay

Callum Shinkwin

David Horsey

Ross Fisher

Anthony Wall

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Branden Grace

Byeong Hun An

Martin Kaymer

Chris Wood

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Lee Westwood

Thongchai Jaidee

Tommy Fleetwood

Tyrrell Hatton

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Chris Wood

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Lee Westwood

Tommy Fleetwood

Byeong Hun An

Shane Lowry

Ross Fisher

Joost Luiten

Top Performers on Par 72 Courses (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Byeong Hun An

Branden Grace

Chris Wood

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Ross Fisher

Shane Lowry

Thomas Aiken

Thongchai Jaidee

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Chris Wood

Byeong Hun An

Thongchai Jaidee

Victor Dubuisson

Branden Grace

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tyrrell Hatton

Tommy Fleetwood

Shane Lowry

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Lee Westwood

Byeong Hun An

Shane Lowry

Nicolas Colsaerts

Martin Kaymer

Branden Grace

Thongchai Jaidee

Rikard Karlberg

Golfers that show up on all SIX lists: Tyrrell Hatton

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Chris Wood, Byeong Hun An

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Branden Grace, Martin Kaymer, Thongchai Jaidee

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Rory McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Lee Westwood, Ross Fisher

My Top 25 for the 2017 Alfred Dunhill Links

1. Tyrrell Hatton

2. Chris Wood

3. Rory McIlroy

4. Shane Lowry

5. Martin Kaymer

6. Tommy Fleetwood

7. Branden Grace

8. Byeong Hun An

9. Matthew Fitzpatrick

10. Lee Westwood

11. Thongchai Jaidee

12. Ross Fisher

13. Julian Suri

14. David Horsey

15. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

16. Alexander Bjork

17. Richard Sterne

18. Paul Dunne

19. Jordan Smith

20. Thorbjorn Olesen

21. Graeme McDowell

22. Fabrizio Zanotti

23. Ryan Fox

24. Dylan Frittelli

25. Richie Ramsay