Josh Culp's Blog, page 17

THE NORTHERN TRUST Fantasy Preview

The first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs is here and don’t be alarmed by the name, we are not headed back to California to take on Riviera Country Club. Nothern Trust has moved their sponsorship to what used to be called The Barclays.

The event uses a course rota in the New York/New Jersey area, with this year’s edition heading to Glen Oaks Club. The course is hosting its first PGA TOUR event so we don’t have a full database to look at past scoring conditions. That means we have a fun week ahead of tipsters and touts trying to put the pieces together. Here is my breakdown of the course:

First, what are the things we know for sure about this course? It’s par 70 that uses holes from two different courses on the property. It streches out to 7,350 yards, which is definitely on the longer side for a par 70. There is water on at least four holes, there are plenty of bunkers littered across the course, and the greens are bentgrass poa.

Next, what are pieces of information that are floating out there that may or may not be relevant. First, this course has been called August of the North, the superintendent was hired over from Bethpage Black and he spent his early years at Augusta National. There will likely be breadcrumbs carried over from both courses as it was recently given a makoever to make it TOUR ready.

Why is it called Augusta North?, Scott Brown wasn’t the first to call it that, but after giving it a test run last year, “similar (in style) to Augusta National in that you have to play shots to certain quadrants of the greens. It’s not crazy tight (nor is Augusta National) and it’s fun to play. The greens are firm and you have a lot of options for shots around the greens.”

If golf courses are like people, then Glen Oaks appears to be that OCD friend of yours who showers three times a day, changes out his sneakers whenever they get their first skidmark, and can’t leave the house unless he’s dressed to the nines. I guess I don’t really have a friend like that, but some of you might. It’s not a club I’d like to attend personally, as I’d be worried about getting mud on the fairway and getting kicked off the course. It’s extremely well-manicured with bunkers that should pop on the broadcast. Looking at aerial shots, it actually looks very similar to Eagle Point Golf Club which we saw host the Wells Fargo Championship earlier this year.

From a setup standpoint, there are five par 4s over 470 yards (long) while there are just two par 4s under 400 yards (short). As the for the par 5s, we have one that looks reachable to all (539-yards) and one that is a beast (625-yards). I will wait to see what golfers are saying early in the week, but it sounds like a course where you need to hit your driver early and often.

For correlated courses, I looked at location, length, forgiveness off the tee, and grass types. The five courses that stood out were: Augusta National, Muirfield Village, TPC Boston, The Old White TPC, and Firestone CC.

They don’t check every box individually, but overall should provide a good mix. Some other courses that were in the mix include Eagle Point GC, Bethpage Black, Doral, and Bay Hill.

The course may get some light storms before the event, but the forecast for the actual tournament looks golden right now.

For additional course and tournament info in addition to golfer quotes, check out the Fantasy Golfanac.

Players to Watch

Rickie Fowler… Jordan Spieth should recieve a lot of love this week due to the August North narrative, but the length of Glen Oaks lends me to look past Spieth for my man to beat. Instead, I want someone that devours courses that demand you to hit driver. Rory would be an obvious pick there but unlike McRib, Fowler is actually playing great golf this season. With six top 10s over his last eight starts, I want to keep the gravy train rolling, right into the winner’s circle.

Rory McIlroy… Went from OUT FOR THE SEASON to now defending his FedExCup title. Was this decision motivated by the sponsorship deals (hitting balls at Yankee stadium this week, Walk With Rory promo at the BMW, etc.) or does he want to end the season on a high, after struggling all year with injuries? After the PGA Championship he said this, “when I come off the course, I feel my left rhomboid going into spasm. (The) inside of my left arm goes numb.” I don’t want a small-percentage narrative to spiral out of control like Stenson’s WD risk last week, but there are definitely concerns to be had about Rory this week. A 100% healthy Rory would be the favorite this week.

Dustin Johnson… Has been spending time in The Bahamas since the PGA Championship. Will that time off be good for DJ and give him a much-needed recharge of the batteries? Or will he be rusty and take a few rounds/events to get back into the groove? I will lean toward the former and say the little vacay will be good for his game.

Jason Day… The Aussie loves summer golf, so it’s no surprise to see his game rounding back into form and also see his track record at this event (six top 15s in nine tries, including a 2015 WIN). If the course is truly forgiving off the tee like Scott Brown suggested, that bodes very well for Day’s chances this week.

Justin Rose … Another top name with a form concern. According to a lot of the Euro tipsters, Rose has been working on a swing change that alleviates pressure from his bad back. Something to steer clear of? Or something he should have figured out by now just in time for a run in the Playoffs? These are the tough questions.

Xander Schauffele… His run of good form snapped at the PGA Championship, which happened to be his first event on bermuda in a while. Coincidence? Potentially not. Early stats suggests that X could be a bentgrass specialist, which makes him somewhat appealing this week as the greens are a bentgrass. He’s had no troubles battling with the big guns (T5 US Open, T20 Open, T13 WGC-BI) so this field shouldn’t intimidate him. UPDATE: With news that the greens are predominantly poa, that brings a bit of question mark here. X should prefer poa over bermuda but his small sample on poa greens is not promising. A slight bump down for me.

Charley Hoffman… Has a win at nearby TPC Boston. Finished solo third at Firestone CC recently, another tree-lined course where you hafta hit driver. I don’t like that there are only two par 5s for him to feast on but he should be able to take advantage of his confident driving skills on the long par 4s.

Paul Casey… On a crazy good run of form, hasn’t finished outside the top 30 since March. Das Nice!

Kevin Chappell… Has gained 7 or more strokes tee-to-green in each of his last three starts. I already said I like Jason Day this week, and we know Chappell likes to perform well when Day does.

David Lingmerth… Glen Oaks is a hefty course in the Northeast with bentgrass/poa greens. Lingmerth has won at Muirfield Village, has a pair of top 10s at the Greenbrier, and a pair of top 10s at Firestone. For someone with only 12 top 10s to his name, it’s a good sign that FIVE of those top 10s have come on correlated courses (or least tracks I’ve handpicked as potentially correlated).

Kyle Stanley… Hit a roadbump since the big win but still driving it well. Has been a DFS darling all year but may be losing that status due to recent form. A nice candidate to bounce back this week.

My Top 25 for the NORTHERN TRUST

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Jordan Spieth

3. Paul Casey

4. Jason Day

5. Dustin Johnson

6. Rory Mcilroy

7. Matt Kuchar

8. Hideki Matsuyama

9. Brooks Koepka

10. Henrik Stenson

11. Jon Rahm

12. Francesco Molinari

13. Patrick Reed

14. Justin Rose

15. Charl Schwartzel

16. Tony Finau

17. Charley Hoffman

18. Justin Thomas

19. Louis Oosthuizen

20. Zach Johnson

21. Daniel Berger

22. Marc Leishman

23. Kevin Chappell

24. Xander Schauffele

25. David Lingmerth

Fiji International Fantasy Preview

The European Tour has a few events active this week. Some of the bigger names are playing Match Play, which leaves us with the table scraps in Fiji.

Luckily, DraftKings doesn’t care how weak the field is, and they are running contests for the stroke-play event in Fiji.

Let’s have a quick rundown of Natadola Bay Championship Golf Course to see who could pop. The course is a par 72 with paspalum grasses throughout the property. It’s just 7,146 yards but the course is often nailed by wind so it plays pretty tough. That being said, Vijay Singh came through and renovated the course since last year, supposedly widening the fairways which could help these golfers survive the elements.

There aren’t many angles I can look at this week since the tournament is pretty unique (not a lot paspalum on a yearly basis and no continent to look at).

To fill in for the empty space, I’m going to add a few stats I look at. First, is % of good rounds on the European Tour and second is (lowest) percentage of bad rounds on the Euro Tour. Good and Bad rounds are classified as gaining or losing half a stroke over the field (adjusted to field strength).

Top Performers against Weak Fields (since 2015)

Adilson Da Silva

Wade Ormsby

Soomin Lee

Jason Scrivener

Jeunghun Wang

Ashley Hall

Jbe’ Kruger

Scott Hend

Gavin Green

Brett Rumford

Top Performers on Par 72 Courses (since 2015)

Jeunghun Wang

Scott Hend

Andrew Dodt

Richard T. Lee

Wade Ormsby

Ryan Fox

Ashley Hall

Jason Scrivener

Gavin Green

Adilson Da Silva

Highest Percentage of Good Rounds (since 2015)

Adilson da Silva

Scott Hend

Jason Scrivener

Wade Ormsby

Jeunghun Wang

Ryan Fox

Rahil Gangjee

Brett Rumford

Jordan Zunic

Gavin Green

*Minimum of 20 Rounds

Lowest Percentage of Bad Rounds (since 2015)

Adilson da Silva

Jason Scrivener

Siddikur Rahman

Scott Hend

Ryan Fox

Rahil Gangjee

Andrew Dodt

Terry Pilkadaris

Wade Ormsby

Richard T. Lee

*Minimum of 20 Rounds

Golfers that show up on all four lists: Adilson da Silva, Wade Ormsby, Jason Scrivener

Golfers that show up on three-of-four lists: Jeunghun Wang, Scott Hend, Gavin Green, Ryan Fox

Golfers that show up on two-of-four lists: Ashley Hall, Brett Rumford, Andrew Dodt, Richard T. Lee, Rahil Gangjee

My Top 25 for the 2017 Fiji International

1. Ryan Fox

2. Gavin Green

3. Andrew Dodt

4. Adilson Da Silva

5. Austin Connelly

6. Scott Hend

7. Terry Pilkadaris

8. Phachara Khongwatmai

9. Vijay Singh

10. Jbe’ Kruger

11. Wade Ormsby

12. Shubhankar Sharma

13. Jeunghun Wang

14. Aron Price

15. Jason Scrivener

16. Jake Higginbottom

17. Soomin Lee

18. Michael Hendry

19. Richard T. Lee

20. Brett Rumford

21. Ashley Hall

22. Johannes Veerman

23. Brad Shilton

24. Rahil Gangjee

25. Jazz Janewattananond

Wyndham Championship Fantasy Preview

With the final major in the books, it’s time to coast to the finish line of the 2016-17 season.

The TOUR makes a short trip to Greensboro, North Carolina, this week to take on Sedgefield Country Club.

The course is a classical, par 70 that plays under 7,200 and was designed by Donald Ross. The greens are champion bermuda, just like last week so anyone that putted well on the tricky Quail Hollow greens may have some extra confidence this week.

The fairways are pretty tight at Sedgefield but unlike last week you don’t need to pound drivers. You will hear a lot about positioning off the tee this week, rather than pure distance. It’s really a second-shot course but if you are too wild off the tee you are still going to have a really bad time.

Translated to a stat view, that means GIR and/or scrambling is key. You have to be great at one or the other, having both skills is always nice but not that realistic for most golfers in this field. My preferred strokes gained stat this week is off-the-tee with a slight lean to the accuracy side of that equation. Distance is still an advantage but not so much off the tee this week. The edge for distance this week would come from hitting shorter clubs into the greens. Keep the ball in play and this course is quite easy.

Having comfort in the area is also a big bonus. The top four course horses in the field all have Carolina ties (Haas, Webb, Carl P, and Glover). That is not a coincidence. If someone grew up or went to school in the Carolinas then it’s worth a small boost this week.

Every year when this event rolls around, a huge FedExCup Bubble narrative gets thrown out there. I’m not buying it. If these golfers were good enough to turn it on and perform better on command then they wouldn’t be on the bubble to begin with!

For correlated courses, the main link was location and course type. The top 5 correlated events include: The RSM Classic, Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage, DEAN & DELUCA, and WGC-Bridgestone.

The weather forecast looks pretty similar to last week. Plenty of storms but also low percentage of precipation. That could change as we draw nearer so keep an eye out. One thing that looks certain is that it will be HOT. Expect temps in the upper 80s with the typical Carolina humidity added into the equation.

For additional course and tournament info in addition to golfer quotes, check out the Fantasy Golfanac.

Players to Watch

Bill Haas… He doesn’t have a true home-course factor but he’s very familiar with the area, having gone to Wake Forest. He considers this a home event and makes it an annual stop since they gave him a sponsor’s invite early on in his career. Now he’s figured out how to balance the local angle with playing good golf, picking up top 25s in his last five trips here. He’s gained the most strokes over the field here since 2007 and he’s playing solid golf at the moment. That makes him the man to beat in my eyes.

Henrik Stenson… On paper he should be the favorite in this field, but you have to question his motivation. He added this event to ensure he meets the minimum 15 events needed to keep his card (avoid Martin Kaymer’s fate). If he gets off to a fast start then sure, he’d love to pick up a nice top-heavy finish heading into the Playoffs but if he opens with an even-par 70 it wouldn’t be shocking to see him WD or go through the motions and miss the cut. Last time he was here he WD’d after R1 with a “bad stomach” and missed the cut in the two previous editions.

Webb Simpson… Returns to the site of his first win. He gets to sleep in his own bed throughout the week. Another Demon Deacon, like Haas. Named his third child after the event (Wyndham Rose). The level of comfort gives him a huge boost and makes him an easy plug-and-play this week.

Kevin Kisner… Looking at the correlated venues I’m targeting, Kiz has won at The RSM and Colonial while finishing runner-up at Harbour Town. These classical designs are perfect for him, and the location (Carolinas) certainly helps. Wouldn’t surprise anyone if he’s right in the mix again but also wouldn’t surprise anyone if he had a letdown week after the grueling week at Quail Hollow that saw him nearly pull of his first win in a major.

Ollie Schniederjans … He’s been quiet lately but one of the best iron players in the game when he’s clicking. That’s perfect on a classical design that forces position off the tee and then great approach. His two best PGA TOUR finishes have come on correlated tracks (T5 Heritage, T6 RSM).

Byeong Hun An… Posted a T18 at Sedgefield in his one attempt (2015). Lost 7.34 strokes putting that week. He still struggles with the flat stick, but shows some sings of life now as he gets more familiar with PGA TOUR green complexes/grasses/speeds. Still looking for his breakout on the PGA TOUR, would be a decent week to pull that off (familiar track, weak field).

Hao Tong Li… First off the board for me, purely due to lack of sample size on in the States. Over on the Euro Tour his round-by-round consistency grades out similarly to a golfer like Rafa Cabrera Bello or Shane Lowry. A world of upside, but I will make him prove himself Stateside before I fully jump in. For now, I’ll just take a small piece of the upside pie.

Bud Cauley… Watched his best friend JT win a major last week. If you’re into the inspiration narrative, then Cauley has to be leaping off the page this week. He’s also a good play without the narrative. His cut-made probability is a bit weaker but he makes up for it with a strong top-20 probability.

Ben Martin… If you like momentum plays then look no further than Martin. Has been T31 or better after R2 in five of his last six starts. Also has the Clemson-Carolina connection in his favor. Is just 1-for-3 at Sedgefield but that one was a T10 in 2015.

Lucas Glover… One of the rare times where Glover grades out in the top half of the field in terms of cut-made probability. Just like Martin (and Stanley, and Byrd) he has the Clemson connection on his side. Glover is 11-for-13 at this event with eight top 25s. We’re on bermuda which means we may see half-way decent putting out of the Glove.

Scott Brown… Kiz’ partner-in-crime, Brown sneakily picked up a T13 last week. Has a T3 on his Wyndham resume. Has signed for 68 or better in 9 of his 12 rounds at Sedgefield CC. Not in my top 25 but he shouldn’t be overlooked.

Blayne Barber… Said this in my 2017 preview… “He’s not a golfer you want to target every week, but he has the ability to rip apart shorter courses. With a little experience now under his belt, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him rip off five or so top 10s this season and potentially find the winner’s circle.” He’s definitely underperformed my expectations but this week fits the bill for courses to target him (shorter tracks with bermuda greens). Five of those breakout candidates from my column have gone on to win this year, Barber could make it a sixth. Okay, that might be a stretch but he’s certainly on my radar as a sleeper.

My Top 25 for the Wyndham Championship

1. Bill Haas

2. Webb Simpson

3. Kevin Kisner

4. Keegan Bradley

5. Jason Dufner

6. Ryan Moore

7. Kevin Na

8. Byeong Hun An

9. Ollie Schniederjans

10. Henrik Stenson

11. Russell Knox

12. Kevin Streelman

13. Chez Reavie

14. Ben Martin

15. Chad Campbell

16. Bud Cauley

17. James Hahn

18. Harris English

19. Robert Streb

20. Billy Horschel

21. Martin Laird

22. Kyle Stanley

23. Lucas Glover

24. Danny Lee

25. Seamus Power

PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

As the final major of the season rolls around, the PGA TOUR heads to Quail Hollow Club for Glory’s Last Shot.

The course is typically the host of the Wells Fargo Championship, but it skipped hosting duties this year to prep for this event. That is notable for a number of reasons but most importantly is the course changes that have taken place over the last year.

A majority of the front nine has been tweaked, altered, or had the order changed. The back nine hasn’t been changed as much, as it was already tough enough, being home of the infamous Green Mile. That closing three-hole stretch gave up just 131 birdies or better in 2016 while yielding 409 bogeys or worse. No lead will be safe coming down the stretch which should provide for an entertaining finish.

Overall, the course will play 25 yards than before, but they also removed a par 5 in the process which means it is now a par 71 for the PGA Championship. That by itself will easily move this course into the “tough course” category. Luckily one of my favorite holes on TOUR, the par-4 14th appears to still be intact as a short, risk-reward par 4.

On top of the hole changes, the grasses are also different since the last time we saw Quail Hollow hosting. The greens have been reseeded with Champion Bermuda, the same type of grass that is featured at Sedgefield CC along with a few other courses on TOUR. Sedgefield is another TOUR stop that is located in North Carolina just 100 miles down the road. The link between Sedgefield and Quail doesn’t stop at greens and location. Quail Hollow also snagged the Sedgefield superintendent, Keith Wood, back in 2015. IF we think course superintendents leave a unique signature on a course when they set it up, then we have a very interesting link brewing.

The Champion Bermuda isn’t the only grass situation to monitor. Because of the time of year (August instead of May) they didn’t need to overseed the rough with ryegrass like they normally do for the Wells Fargo Championship, so it will be pure bermuda rough. Another small, but possibly not insignificant change to the course.

That sounds like a lot of course changes but overall it’s still a long layout with tight driving zones. Over the last 10 years, 13 of the 14 driving holes have averaged a fairways-hit percentage of less than 55. Part of that is due to the length of the par 4s. You have to pull driver a lot since eight of the par 4s now stretch out over 450 yards. If you’re using driver on 10-to-14 holes per round, it’s only natural that fairways will be tougher to hit. The fairways are also tough to hit because it ranks inside the top 5 tighest for annual TOUR stops in terms of median fairway widths.

Golfers that miss the fairways will have tree troubles to deal with but great escape artists should still have a chance at recovering out of rough since it’s usually not too nasty. This is a detail about the course that Phil Mickelson has raved about in the past. Early pictures this week look like the rough is still very manageable, keeping the trees, length, and fairway bunkers as the main defense. Of course, that could be due to the weather forecast, needing the rough shorter to start if they won’t have the chance to mow it due to off-and-on rains throughout the week. Give DailyFantasyPress a follow on Twitter to see a course walkthrough during the practice rounds.

For stats this week I want to target Driving Distance, GIR Percentage, and Birdie-or-Better Percentage. Pretty simple stuff, there. If I’m ranking the importance of strokes gained sub-categories, I am going to target strokes gained approach personally followed by putting, off-the-tee, and lastly around-the-green.

For correlated courses, the venues that popped off the page were either similar in terms of fairway width, amount of long par 4s, or quick green speeds. The top 5 correlated courses include: Muirfield Village, TPC Sawgrass, Riviera CC, Sedgefield CC, and Firestone CC. Overall, a very similar test to last week’s course.

For the weather forecast we see plenty of thunderstorms in the forecast. If the course stays soft then that should ensure these guys are hitting plenty of drivers. As for the greens, they have a SubAir system to keep them relativey dry and running as quick as they want them to.

For additional course and tournament info in addition to golfer quotes, check out the Fantasy Golfanac.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… Quail Hollow was the site of his first PGA TOUR win. That was when the greens were bentgrass (2010). He would add a second win in 2015 (after the switch to bermuda). McIlroy has never been one to take sides when it comes to bent vs bermuda as he does his damage tee-to-green and his flat stick will pop at any time. He also owns the course record here. Based on the history alone, this is really Rory’s to lose. That being said, you can never just lock someone into a top-5 finish at a major, let alone a win. Might garner enough hype to have record-level ownership this week.

Rickie Fowler… Quail Hollow is also the site of his first TOUR win. Fowler has since won at TPC Sawgrass, one of the ball-striking courses I’m using as a correlated track. Another things going for Pretty Rickie is his season-long form. Looking at just PGA TOUR events, he’s gained 5+ strokes over the field in 11 of his last 13 starts. His game is so balanced that when one area is off, he usually picks himself up in a different department. Last week for example, he lost 1.2 strokes on approach, but gained em all back with +4.9 strokes gained putting. He also showed plenty of fight as it would have been easy to coast to a guaranteed paycheck after swallowing a pair of double bogeys early in his week. He’s historically been better on bentgrass courses but he does have two wins on bermuda (PLAYERS, Honda) so he’s no slouch on the grainy stuff, either.

Phil Mickelson… Rounding out the trio of course horses, Lefty has done everything but win here. He is 14-for-14 at Quail Hollow with nine top 10s, seven of those inside the top 5. Mickelson has called this the best tee-to-green course is the country. If we use FantasyNational.com to look up putting stats on other courses that feature the new Champion Bermuda greens, then Mickelson grades out right near the top. Add his love of the tee-to-green aspect with his positive stats on the new putting surfaces, and we may have a match made in heaven. That should help make his 100th major a memorable one.

Matt Kuchar… Don’t let the distance of this course fool you, Kuchar should still be right in the mix. He’s feasted on lengthy layouts like Augusta National and Muirfield Village over the years. His top-5 rate actually increases versus his baseline when he’s playing on courses over 7,400 yards. It would also be a lovely redemption story if Spieth had the career Grand Slam in sight this week only to be overtaken by Kuchar on the back nine on Sunday.

Paul Casey … It would be easy to look at Rory as the course horse and just throw a blanket statement out about off-the-tee being the most important stat this week. However if you compare the horses with the duds, the biggest separation comes in approach play. That is where Casey shines. He’s gained an average of 4 strokes approaching-the-green over his last 10 lasered starts. That is in elite, elite, territory. I will keep riding the Casey train until his ball-striking slows.

Bill Haas… While Webb Simpson will attract interest due to his membership at Quail Hollow, I’m going to go up the family tree and play the “dad is a member at the course” angle. Billy has claimed to have played this track at least 20 times outside of competition, generally making a few family trips per year. His dad should have the inside scoop on how the new course changes will alter strategy. He’s also got a nice track record on correlated events I’m looking at: WIN and T3 at Riviera, T2 at Wyndham, T4 at Muirfield Village, and T4 at TPC Sawgrass. When his irons get dialed in they can go lights out ala Jason Dufner style. Is also playing extremely steady golf lately, beating the adjusted field average by 1/2 a stroke or more in 19 of his last 22 rounds. That 86 percent clip is highest in the field over the last 10 weeks of PGA TOUR action. It may seem like a crazy boring play, but I’m using this Carolina boy as my dark horse.

Thomas Pieters… Unlike Haas, Pieters should attract plenty of attention this week, especially after his strong showing at Firestone CC. The only thing that holds him back from time to time is his temper and his motivation to play golf. The motivation part shouldn’t be a problem given this is a major championship. Love his upside, but he’s still in the boom-or-bust category for me.

Adam Scott… Has one of the stronger track records on correlated layouts and also posting postive results lately. The problem is his lack of upside this year. He’s been inside the top 5 after just one round this year (R3 of the Genesis Open). I guess there are a few more problems since he doesn’t have Stevie Williams on the bag this week and his wife is due next week. Could we have a Hunter Mahan situation if she goes into labor early? Something to consider before you get too invested in the Aussie.

Kevin Chappell… If approach play is at a premium, I want Chappell on my team, as he’s been lights out with his irons since switching back to his old clubs before the Masters. I think he was a late add to the RBC Canadian Open field after back-to-back missed cuts. He wanted to find his game before the last major and it seems to have worked, picking up T8 and T13 finishes over the last two weeks.

Justin Thomas… Picks up birdies in bunches when he’s clicking. However, he hasn’t been clicking for over a month. On the bright side, he improved in each round last week (73-70-69-67). Now he heads to another track where he can bust driver after driver, one of his strongest assets. I’m not going to let his recent duds steer me away this week.

Charley Hoffman… One of the hottest golfers in the world right now (results not looks). Has three podium finishes in his last five starts. If you want a form play, this is your man.

Si Woo Kim… Didn’t crack my rankings due to long-term inconsistencies but he is an interesting boom-or-bust play. His two wins have come at Sedgefield and TPC Sawgrass, both tracks I’m using as correlated course this week. Always a risk, but could be worth a shot this week.

My Top 40 for the 2017 PGA Championship

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Rickie Fowler

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Phil Mickelson

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Hideki Matsuyama

7. Paul Casey

8. Thomas Pieters

9. Brooks Koepka

10. Bill Haas

11. Sergio Garcia

12. Adam Scott

13. Justin Thomas

14. Dustin Johnson

15. Justin Rose

16. Jason Day

17. Charl Schwartzel

18. Charley Hoffman

19. Kevin Chappell

20. Patrick Reed

21. Marc Leishman

22. Jon Rahm

23. Kevin Kisner

24. Zach Johnson

25. Steve Stricker

26. Daniel Berger

27. Bubba Watson

28. J.B. Holmes

29. Jason Dufner

30. Ian Poulter

31. Keegan Bradley

32. Gary Woodland

33. Lee Westwood

34. Ross Fisher

35. Brendan Steele

36. Branden Grace

37. Tony Finau

38. Jamie Lovemark

39. Danny Lee

40. Tommy Fleetwood

Barracuda Championship Fantasy Preview

Just like I did with the Barbasol, I’m going to give a short rundown of the stats this week and then provide my top 25 rankings. This is an alternate-field event so OAD and betting is likely the only format in play this week.

The course is a par 72, Jack Nicklaus design, with bentgrass greens. It resembles the Muirfield Village mold of very generous fairways but tough-to-hit greens. Part of that difficulty lies in the altitude, picking the right club will be crucial this week.

The tournament uses Modified Stableford scoring, but there is nothing to suggest one type of golfer fits this format best. You would think targeting eagle makers is the route to take, but some recent champs include Greg Chalmers, J.J. Henry (2x), and Geoff Ogilvy. Nothing about their stats suggest they should be racking up birdies or eagles.

Before we get to the lists, I will say it’s worth giving a boost to local knowledge. Anyone with ties to Nevada gets a boost for me. A few names that stand out are Nick Watney, Alex Cejka, and Andres Gonzales. I’m sure there are more if you dive deep, but those were the ones I recognized on first glance of the field list. A longshot possible connection is Wyndham Clark. His swing coach works out of TPC Summerlin in Vegas… I have no idea how often Clark makes the trip to Nevada, but he has the pedigree and possible experience in the area, so it’s worth considering if you want some kind of longshot angle this week.

Cut-Made Probability

Seamus Power

Ollie Schniederjans

Chez Reavie

Ben Martin

Daniel Summerhays

Brandon Hagy

Kevin Tway

Harris English

Nick Watney

Robert Garrigus

Trey Mullinax

J.T. Poston

Chris Stroud

Ricky Barnes

David Hearn

Top-20 Probability

Seamus Power

Chez Reavie

Ollie Schniederjans

Daniel Summerhays

Kevin Tway

Ben Martin

Nick Watney

Harris English

Brandon Hagy

David Hearn

Trey Mullinax

Robert Garrigus

Ricky Barnes

Ryan Palmer

Cameron Tringale

Top-5 Probability

Chez Reavie

Rick Lamb (WHAT!?)

Kevin Tway

Ben Martin

Ryan Palmer

Daniel Summerhays

Cameron Tringale

Brendon Todd (WHAT!?)

Ollie Schniederjans

Luke List

Curtis Luck

Sebastian Munoz

Trey Mullinax

David Hearn

Brian Gay

Recent Form (Most Strokes Gained over last 10 weeks)

Chez Reavie

Ben Martin

Ricky Barnes

Robert Garrigus

Seamus Power

Harris English

Trey Mullinax

Padraig Harrington

Scott Stallings

Kevin Tway

Daniel Summerhays

Brandon Hagy

David Hearn

Sam Saunders

Peter Malnati

Course History (Most $ Earned at the Barracuda)

J.J. Henry

Vaughn Taylor

John Rollins

Tim Herron

Greg Chalmers

Geoff Ogilvy

Jonathan Byrd

John Merrick

Kyle Reifers

Craig Barlow

Mark Wilson

Brian Gay

Bryce Molder

Alex Cejka

Nick Watney

Golfers that show up on all five lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on four-of-five lists: Chez Reavie, Kevin Tway, Ben Martin, Daniel Summerhays, Trey Mullinax, David Hearn

Golfers that show up on three-of-five lists: Ollie Schniederjans, Robert Garrigus, Nick Watney, Harris English, Brandon Hagy, Ricky Barnes

My Top 25 for the 2017 Barracuda

1. Ben Martin

2. Chez Reavie

3. Kevin Tway

4. Daniel Summerhays

5. Trey Mullinax

6. David Hearn

7. Robert Garrigus

8. Nick Watney

9. Ollie Schniederjans

10. Brandon Hagy

11. Harris English

12. Ricky Barnes

13. Brian Gay

14. Ryan Palmer

15. Cameron Tringale

16. Seamus Power

17. Alex Cejka

18. Curtis Luck

19. Luke List

20. Rick Lamb

21. J.J. Henry

22. Geoff Ogilvy

23. Vaughn Taylor

24. Jonathan Byrd

25. Wyndham Clark

WGC Bridgestone Invitational Fantasy Preview

Jhonny Vegas took one down for Team Course History last week, breaking out of a five-event missed cut streak in a big way!

Course history should prove relevant again this week, or at least course experience, since nobody has won this event during their debut since Tiger Woods in 1999 (the inaugural edition).

Scott Piercy explained why course experience matters last year when he had this to say about Firestone Country Club, “You’ve got to really know the angles into the greens. It’s okay to miss it maybe in the right rough to get a shot at the green, or in the left rough.” You can pickup a general idea of where to miss just by mapping the course in practice rounds, but having a memory bank of past experience is a big boost at Firestone.

Basically we are looking at a Pete Dye design on steroids. Firestone Country Club is a classical layout designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. that requires proper placement off the tee. However, at 7,400 yards, you still have to hit quite a few drivers around here, especially if the course gets hit with rain. If it plays firm and fast then the heavy-sloped fairways will run for miles and even the shorter hitter will be able to club down.

Whether the course is playing soft or firm, these fairways are always some of the toughest to hit because they are rather narrow and the heavy slopes force you to hit your spots, or else the ball is just going to runaway into the thick stuff. It’s a very demanding course when it comes to driving the golf ball.

From a course setup point-of-view, there are seven par 4s over 460 yards! As you’d expect from a course with so many long par 4s, there are really no makeup holes to recover from disaster (except maybe the par-5 second). This is not a venue where you can easily hide from poor ball-striking.

Golfers that have scored the best on long par 4s over the last few seasons include: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Lee Westwood, Henrik Stenson, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson, Jason Day, and Matt Kuchar.

Looking for stats, I will focus on GIR studs but driving distance is definitely an advantage I want on my side, as well. From a strokes-gained view, all four sub-categories grade out as relevant. Firestone CC really does test all facets of your game, just like most major championship venues.

For correlated courses, the venues that popped off the page were either similar in terms of fairway width or amount of long par 4s. The top 5 correlated courses include: Muirfield Village, Augusta National, TPC Sawgrass, Riviera CC, and TPC Scottsdale.

For additional course and tournament info in addition to golfer quotes, check out the Fantasy Golfanac.

Players to Watch

Rickie Fowler… Was one of the more popular picks at Royal Birkdale, but he got pushed to the back of the bus and barely talked about over the weekend as the leaderboard was overflowing with talent inside the top 10. There was no reason to talk too much about outsiders at that point. A top 25 at The Open still gained over 5 strokes on the field, the 10th time he’s done that in his last 12 PGA TOUR starts. Despite him shortening the driver, he’s still one of the better drivers in the world. Has four top 10s at Firestone in 7 tries, so experience is on his side, as well. If Rory and DJ had no question marks attached to the state of their game, I think we’d have a four pack at the top, instead I think Fowler and Spieth are the top two favorites for me this week.

Matt Kuchar… Wasn’t his usual self last week, but it was impressive just to make the cut after battling vertigo on Thursday. He gained 2.2 strokes off-the-tee over the weekend after losing 3.05 strokes OTT before the cut. Definitely more like the Kuchar we know over the weekend. As a user of Bridgestone balls, he’d love nothing more than to win this one, but he’s settled for three top 10s in eight tries here. Not the upside of the heavy hitters but his long-iron play and elite short game is what keeps him near the top here at Firestone, year after year.

Jon Rahm… The young Spaniard plays without fear and will challenge these tight fairways with a heavy dose of drivers. I talked about course experience meaning a lot at Firestone CC, but Rahm has been a trend-breaker in terms of not needing any course knowledge in order to repeatedly contend on TOUR.

Bubba Watson… Looking for great drivers, Bubba certainly qualifies. He’s now gained strokes over the field in three straight events (the first time he’s done that since the end of the 2015-16 season). Showcasing a bit of form and just in time as he needs the FedExCup Points, currently sitting at just 117th in the standings.

Paul Casey … If we shift our attention to all-around play, Casey is one that always pops. He’s solid off the tee, elite in approach, and certainly above average in the scrambling department. Has top 30s in 9 of his last 10 starts, that should be 10-of-11 after this week, with a decent chance at returning to the winner’s circle, as well.

Rory McIlroy… Now we get into the wildcard department. Had his best finish in months and he responds by parting ways with his long-time caddie? That’s not a decision that you make on a whim, so I’m guessing Rory has someone pretty good locked up or him and JP really had a falling out. I guess we’ll wait and see but he’s still the best in the world when comparing “A-Games”. Even if it is good friend, Harry Diamond, on the bag then we could still see an uptick in short-term performance since Rory already knows the ins and outs of Firestone and Quail Hollow.

Thomas Pieters… The quickest way to diversify your DFS lineups is to grab some Euro golfers. Pieters is usually my go-to- guy in that department. The closest comps for his round-by-round variance are Patrick Reed and Louis Oosthuizen. The weeks they are clicking, they really fire on all cylinders, but they aren’t afraid of a nasty blowout, either. Pieters also had a near-miss at Riviera, a course I am including in my correlated courses this week.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… A little more steady than Pieters and you have to pay a little extra as a result. A win and T4 in his last two starts. We are no longer on links, but the confidence should still translate.

Patrick Reed… I mentioned Reed having a similar variance-level as Pieters, and I think a Pieters-Reed combo would provide some stellar GPP upside. Playing his 8th week in a row, I’ve found in the past that the win rates rise the more weeks in a row a golfer plays. At the same time, missed-cut probability also rises the more a golfer plays consecutive weeks (no-cut event this week so obviously a MC is not possible). With top 20s in five of his last seven starts, his form is simmering but could quickly come to a boil any week now. I still think he climbs back into the winner’s circle before the end of the season.

Justin Thomas… One hole cost him the week at The Open but that is what you sign up for when you back JT. If you back him on a week he avoids the big number, you’re likely going to find a top 10, but otherwise it can get ugly. With no cut this week, he’s definitely more appealing.

Jason Day… He’s becoming a forgotten man, but playing in his home state this week, now might be the time to take a risk. He has two top 5s in 7 appearances here at Firestone. Maybe his good buddy Tiger can text him to tips to winning here since Tiger hoisted the trophy eight times in 15 tries here in Akron, Ohio.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Bridgestone Invite

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Jordan Spieth

3. Rory McIlroy

4. Dustin Johnson

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Adam Scott

7. Justin Rose

8. Paul Casey

9. Henrik Stenson

10. Jon Rahm

11. Brooks Koepka

12. Jason Day

13. Patrick Reed

14. Thomas Pieters

15. Hideki Matsuyama

16. Justin Thomas

17. Sergio Garcia

18. Marc Leishman

19. Charl Schwartzel

20. Rafa Cabrera Bello

21. Louis Oosthuizen

22. Charley Hoffman

23. Branden Grace

24. Kevin Chappell

25. Bubba Watson

European Open Preview

As the European Tour preps for another edition of the European Open, they will head to Germany for a third straight year.

There is a new challenger when it comes to playing host course, though. The North Course at Green Eagle Golf Course will take the duties. If you read the course description on their website, you might believe this is the hardest course on the planet. I guess we’ll see how that plays out this week.

It’s a long par 72 layout, nearly 7,600 yards, with bentgrass greens and water in play on 17-of-18 holes. The last time Alexander Levy won (Volvo China Open) I wrote down a mental note to play him on any course with lots of water (I also have that same note for Daniel Berger on the PGA TOUR). Levy also won this event last year on a different course, that layout was a Langer design with water in play on nearly every hole, as well.

Let’s get right down to business and check out some performance stats based on this week’s layout:

Top Performers on Bentgrass (since 2015)

Patrick Reed

Bradley Dredge

Joost Luiten

Richard Sterne

Charl Schwartzel

Alexander Bjork

Rikard Karlberg

Alexander Levy

Gregory Bourdy

Paul Dunne

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Bradley Dredge

Rikard Karlberg

Richard Sterne

James Morrison

Gregory Bourdy

Alexander Bjork

Alexander Levy

Anthony Wall

Richie Ramsay

Top Performers on Par 72 Courses (since 2015)

Charl Schwartzel

Joost Luiten

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Richard Sterne

Bradley Dredge

Gregory Bourdy

Alexander Bjork

Patrick Reed

Jordan Smith

Peter Hanson

Top Performers against Weak Fields (since 2015)

Charl Schwartzel

Joost Luiten

Gregory Bourdy

Richard Sterne

Bradley Dredge

David Lipsky

Robert Rock

David Howell

Romain Wattel

Trevor Fisher Jr.

Top Performers on Long Courses (since 2015)

Charl Schwartzel

Gregory Bourdy

Jordan Smith

Joost Luiten

Bradley Dredge

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Alejandro Canizares

Kristoffer Broberg

Trevor Fisher Jr.

Ashun Wu

Golfers that show up on all five lists: Joost Luiten, Bradley Dredge, and Gregory Bourdy

Golfers that show up on four-of-five lists: Charl Schwartzel, Richard Sterne

Golfers that show up on three-of-five lists: Alexander Bjork

Golfers that show up on two-of-five lists: Patrick Reed, Alexander Levy, Kiradech Aphirbarnrat, Rikard Karlberg, Jordan Smith, Trevor Fisher Jr.

My Top 25 for the 2017 European Open

1. Patrick Reed

2. Joost Luiten

3. Charl Schwartzel

4. Bradley Dredge

5. Alexander Levy

6. Jordan Smith

7. Alexander Bjork

8. Gregory Bourdy

9. Richard Sterne

10. Thorbjorn Olesen

11. Paul Dunne

12. Julian Suri

13. Richie Ramsay

14. Peter Hanson

15. Jorge Campillo

16. Anthony Wall

17. Maximilian Kieffer

18. Rikard Karlberg

19. Graeme Storm

20. Jamie Donaldson

21. Benjamin Hebert

22. Scott Jamieson

23. Robert Rock

24. James Morrison

25. Austin Connelly

RBC Canadian Open Fantasy Preview

GO GET THAT! After an epic finish at The 146th Open, it’s time relax for a laid-back event in Canada.

Many golfers will be making the charter flight back from the Open to play this week. Part of that is due to sponsor obligations, plenty of the big guns are affiliated with RBC. Has the travel mattered in the past? Should we be fading anyone that just played in The Open? The answer is NO to both questions. Two of the last three winners at Glen Abbey Golf Club were right in the thick of things at The Open before flying to Canada and hoisting the trophy. One of those was Jason Day who co-lead after 54 holes at the 2015 Open before falling just short. He didn’t let that phase him too much as he took care of business at Glen Abbey the following week, which was actually a victory that sparked his stellar run of 4 wins in a 6-start stretch.

As you may have noticed from the paragraph above, Glen Abbey is hosting the event this year. It has recently hosted this tournament in 2016, 2015, 2013, 2009, and 2008. There have been slight alterations to the venue over the years, and last year we found out the course might not exist in 10 years. Most importantly, we’ve seen the grounds crew soften their stance on rough. Previously letting it grow to U.S. Open type lengths, but now cutting it around 3 inches. There was also weather issues that forced the greens to be transitioned from poa annua to bentgrass. Last year was the first year they were exclusively bentgrass, so keep that in mind if you’re leaning heavily on course history.

Before we reach the greens, what kind of skillset is required at Glen Abbey? Looking at hole-level stats we see that 12-of-14 driving holes allow a field average driving distance of 280 yards or more. At the same time, 12-of-14 driving holes allow a fairway-hit percentage of less than 58. When we get high driving distance but low accuracy, that generally means that golfers are gripping it and ripping it. It is very advantagous to be in the fairways here but some of the fairways are really tough to hit, whether you club down or smack it, so most golfers are going to choose driver this week.

The par 5s are where you need to feast this week. All four of the par 5s are under 560 yards, that is SHORT. Golfers with the best scoring versus the field on these short par 5s include: Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Bubba Watson, Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston, Ryan Brehm, Keegan Bradley, Luke List, Tony Finau, and Shane Lowry. A lot of firepower on that list, which should be very benefical to DFSers where birdies and eagles are crucial.

Glen Abbey is also a Jack Nicklaus design, one of his first, so you will hear a lot about a left-to-right ball flight this week. Looking at Nicklaus Design Specialists could prove worthy by week’s end. For other angles and quotes, check out the Fantasy Golfanac.

Given the course rotation at this event, I had a bit less data to work with but correlated course I found include: TPC Boston, TPC River Highlands, TPC Summerlin, Muirfield Village, and TPC Southwind. Any strong or consistent performances at those venues could be used as a tiebreaker this week.

Players to Watch

Dustin Johnson… Finally showed some signs of life after back-to-back MCs. His final round was a disaster at Royal Birkdale but this week’s course will suit him much better, allowing him to bomb-and-gouge to his heart’s desire. Kuchar may be the safer option if you want a cut made or a top 20 but DJ has the best winning potential in the field. Easily.

Matt Kuchar… Speaking of Kuchar, he is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Spieth last week. It was his best performance in a major, and likely his best chance to close the door in a major. Will he have a huge letdown week? I wouldn’t bank on it. I would actually use Jason Day in 2015 as a good comp for Kuchar this week. At that stage in his career, Day was still major-less and he just lost grasp on another chance (co-leading after 54 at The Open, finishing T4). He used it as positive momentum to launch his move up the world rankings, winning at Glen Abbey and also winning the PGA Championship that year. If Kuchar wins this week and finishes T12 at the Bridgestone, then we can just look in a win at Quail Hollow.

Stewart Cink… Didn’t even consider Cink at Royal Birkdale, but Glen Abbey is a much better fit for the aging bomber. Despite his age, he still keeps it up with the big boys off the tee and he’s been an absolute machine with his approach game this season. Adding to the seemingly good fit, he’s backed that up with finishes of T4 (2004) and T5 (2015) at this venue. Heyyyo.

Ricky Barnes… Speaking of old guys with some success at the course. Old Rickster has finished T11 and T5 here over the last two years. A nice boom-bust option this week, but he’s still lost strokes off-the-tee in more than 15 straight events.

Danny Lee … Made the trip to Royal Birkdale but got stranded as an alternate. His mid-tourney WD was killer for a lot of gamers but he’s still gained 6+ strokes over the field in 5 of his last 8 starts.

David Lingmerth… Another golfer that was on a heater before finishing T64 and MC in his last two starts. On top of that he has a clear love for Nicklaus Designs, with only three golfers in the field gaining more strokes on Nicklaus Tracks since 2014 (Kuchar, Furyk, McGirt).

Brandt Snedeker… Withdrew from The Open with an injury but now he’s going to tee it up here just to please his RBC sponsors? Sounds dicey, which is why he dropped way down my rankings to #20.

Chez Reavie… Glen Abbey is the site on his lone PGA TOUR win. He also has four straight top 45s (two inside the top 20). Trending converging nicely for Chezster but back in 2008 the rough was grown up to 4 inches here and the greens were poa annua. A slightly different version of the course that favored the straight shooters a bit more. Overall a good option but if he starts to gain too much popularity this week, he could be one to fade on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Charley Hoffman… Top 20s in three of his last four starts, including two on links-style courses which have traditionally been tough for Chuckles. Playing well when the course doesn’t fit is always great news. Don’t be worried about playing four days at Royal Birkdale, Hoffman should be heavily targeted this week.

Tony Finau… A bomb-and-gouge track with bentgrass greens? Sounds like a job for Tony. His old reputation for being boom-or-bust has long been shed as he provides some of the most consistent results from week-to-week, especially in a thin field like this one.

Patrick Cantlay… Wish I knew where he’s been for the last month and a half. Given his history of injury and lack of any status updates, I have to fade him as he makes his first start since June 4th. Could be a costly fade, because this is an event he could definitely win, but I will take my chances.

My Top 25 for the 2017 RBC Canadian Open

1. Dustin Johnson

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Charley Hoffman

4. Tony Finau

5. Stewart Cink

6. Bubba Watson

7. Jim Furyk

8. David Lingmerth

9. Danny Lee

10. Chez Reavie

11. Keegan Bradley

12. Ian Poulter

13. Shane Lowry

14. James Hahn

15. Gary Woodland

16. J.B. Holmes

17. Kevin Chappell

18. Chad Campbell

19. Harris English

20. Brandt Snedeker

21. Sean O’Hair

22. Ben Martin

23. Ollie Schniederjans

24. Graham DeLaet

25. Anirban Lahiri

Barbasol Championship Fantasy Preview

With the big guns heading overseas for The Open, there is a small field remaining stateside, ready to take on Grand National’s Lake Course in Opelika, Alabama.

With One-and-Done likely being the only fantasy format active for this event, I’m going to keep this really quick and use a different format than most previews.

First, I will use historical stats since 2014 to determine who has the best chances to make the cut, best chances to pick up a top 20, and best chances to secure a top 5. Then I will add a list for current form and one list for course history. At the end we will get a quick view of who is checking the most boxes.

Cut-Made Probability

Jim Furyk

Daniel Summerhays

Seamus Power

Ben Martin

David Hearn

Trey Mullinax

Cameron Tringale

Chad Campbell

Shawn Stefani

Brandon Hagy

Willy Wilcox

Brian Campbell

J.T. Poston

Matt Jones

Tom Hoge

Top-20 Probability

Jim Furyk

Chad Campbell

Ben Martin

Daniel Summerhays

David Hearn

Rick Lamb

Dominic Bozzelli

Robby Shelton

Matt Jones

Joel Dahmen

Grayson Murray

Ricky Barnes

Trey Mullinax

George McNeill

Smylie Kaufman

Top-5 Probability

Jim Furyk

Dominic Bozzelli

Brian Gay

Ben Martin

Cameron Tringale

Smylie Kaufman

Joel Dahmen

Boo Weekley

Seung-Yul Noh

Daniel Summerhays

Matt Jones

Rick Lamb

Trey Mullinax

Troy Merritt

Jason Bohn

Recent Form (Most Strokes Gained over last 10 weeks)

Ben Martin

Chad Campbell

Daniel Summerhays

Ricky Barnes

Trey Mullinax

Scott Stallings

Grayson Murray

David Hearn

Seamus Power

Joel Dahmen

Spencer Levin

Smylie Kaufman

Boo Weekley

Rick Lamb

Cameron Tringale

Course History (Most Strokes Gained at Grand National)

Boo Weekley

Ricky Barnes

Willy Wilcox

Andres Romero

Sam Saunders

Robby Shelton

Blayne Barber

Andres Gonzales

Chesson Hadley

Tom Hoge

Mark Hensby

Andrew Loupe

Brendon de Jonge

Stuart Appleby

John Merrick

Golfers that show up on all five lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on four-of-five lists: Ben Martin, Daniel Summerhays, Trey Mullinax

Golfers that show up on three-of-five lists: Jim Furyk, Cameron Tringale, Smylie Kaufman, Joel Dahmen, Boo Weekley, Matt Jones, Rick Lamb, Chad Campbell, David Hearn, Ricky Barnes

My Top 25 for the 2017 Barbasol

1. Ben Martin

2. Daniel Summerhays

3. Trey Mullinax

4. Jim Furyk

5. Chad Campbell

6. David Hearn

7. Cameron Tringale

8. Matt Jones

9. Boo Weekley

10. Ricky Barnes

11. Smylie Kaufman

12. Joel Dahmen

13. Rick Lamb

14. Seamus Power

15. Robby Shelton

16. Grayson Murray

17. Blayne Barber

18. Sam Saunders

19. Shawn Stefani

20. Chris Stroud

21. Andres Romero

22. Dominic Bozzelli

23. Seung-Yul Noh

24. Brandon Hagy

25. Willy Wilcox

The Open Championship Fantasy Preview

The U.S. Open is known as the toughest test in golf, but don’t tell that to any of the 156 golfers who played Royal Birkdale during the 2008 Open Championship.

Winds were whipping at 20+ MPH all week with gusts exceeding 40 MPH at times, leading to a winning score of +3 by Paddy Harrigton, beating the runner-up, Ian Poulter, by FOUR strokes. You could have cracked the top 10 that year with a four-day tally of 12-over. That wasn’t even the highest score by a winner at Royal Birkdale, as Peter Thompson won the 1965 edition by taking 285 swipes (two more than Paddy), although it was playing as a par 73 back then. Thompson was part of a trend that saw Americans or Aussies win the first eight Open Championships held by Royal Birkdale.

Should we expect another bloodbath this week at Royal Birkdale? Mother Nature will decide. Par is just a number but in the three editions Birkdale has hosted as a par 70, the winning scores have been -8, EVEN, and +3 so weather truly can be worth 2-to-3 shots per round, around here.

The course itself is a par 70 links layout that plays to just 7,156 yards. The par 5s are both on the homeward nine, with the longest of par 5s measuring just 567, certainly manageable by everyone in the field. That takes away a small edge for bombers since there are only two par 5s and both of them do not require length to score.

The fairways at Royal Birkdale are known for being flat but also very tight. When you think links golf, you probably imagine generous fairways but that’s not the case here. The flat fairways reduce the element of unlucky bounces just a bit, but once you get offline, the rough is very penal and can swallow up your golf ball quickly. If a 20-handicapper played the course, they are probably going to be on their second sleeve of balls before they even reach the turn. Back in 2008, Ernie Els called this a second-shot course because of all the doglegs that force golfers to drive into the same landing areas.

Sergio Garcia would also say, “on these kind of courses you don’t have to just get there and just bang it. You have to hit different shots off the tee.” The consensus from all the golfers seem to be that Royal Birkdale is a course where you need to be a good driver of the golf ball. Justin Rose compared it to a U.S. Open-like test in terms of driving. For stats, that means I want to target strokes gained off-the-tee but avoid golfers that spray it all over the ballpark. For me, I like to use Distance from the Edge of Fairway to determine who keeps the ball in play. After that, I also think elite short game should be really helpful this week, unless the wind forecast looks dead calm, then I would shift more toward elite approach play.

Check out the Royal Birkdale Fantasy Golfanac for more quotes and tounament insights.

Looking for correlated courses, a simple tournament history would probably provide the best results. Other than that, I picked out a few courses/events that have shown a correlation to success at The Open with an emphasis on tough driving alleys: Firestone CC, TPC Southwind, Riviera CC, the U.S. Open, and the PGA Championship.

WEATHER DRAW: I’m not going to go as far as suggesting one wave over the other right now, but I want to remind gamers that there are no split tees at The Open Championship. That means the final group on Thursday and Friday will tee off more than 9 hours after the first group kicks off the day. This is definitely an event that is notorious for one side (or even one cluster) of the draw getting a clear advantage over the first two rounds. Keep an eye on the forecast and strongly consider stacking tee-time waves if you are playing multiple lineups on DraftKings or FanDuel.

Looking at the past 10 years, there is one starting tee-time wave that has yielded the most winners (4), podiums (10), Top 5s (17), Top 10s (28), and top 25s (48)… That is golfers that have started between 9:00 AM and 10:00 AM on Thursday. This is going to vary year-to-year based on weather (last year it was the 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM time slot that yielded the most success). Definitely something to keep an eye on.

Players to Watch

Rickie Fowler… It appears he’s forgotten his razor so we have a full Dick Fowler, P.I. situation on our hands (moustached man). Fowler has everything you want this week. He’s got stellar season-long form, he’s striping fairways at a high clip but can still pound it out there when he needs to. He’s entered the final round inside the top 10 on six occasions this season and he doesn’t mind a little wind or rain. Could this finally be his time to shine in a major? I’m thinking the odds are in his favor.

Sergio Garcia… Much like Fowler, he’s elite when it comes to playing in the elements. It’s no wonder he’s pieced together 10 top 10s in 20 Open Championship appearances. The only potential knocks against him would be his Masters win (is he fat and happy?) or his upcoming wedding (how involved/stressed is Sergio about the big day?). Those same factors could also work in his favor, saying he’s finally knocked the major monkey off his back and he’s in a good place in his personal life. Always thought The Open was best suited for Garcia to pick up his first major title. Obviously not possible anymore, but why not add a second major?

Francesco Molinari… Has played in 9 Open Championships and entered the finale inside the top 25 in four of those starts. He didn’t qualify in 2008 (last time Birkdale hosted) but should be a superb fit on paper. The tight(er) fairways shouldn’t bother him as he shoots arrows off the tee. If it gets extremely windy and he has to rely on his short game more, then I may bump him down my list, but in calmer conditions I think Moli can be a tee-to-green nightmare this week.

Andy Sullivan… When playing DFS in big events like this, the Euro golfers will always go lower owned than they should. Sullivan should fall into that category since he’s not a sexy play on paper and he’s not a household name. However, he enters with top 20s in four of his last five starts and has finishes on T30 and T12 in his two Open appearances.

Alex Noren … Keeping with the Euro flavor, this Swede has won six times since the start of 2015. Finished T19 at Royal Birkdale back in 2008. If he gets a sniff of the lead, he won’t back down.

Tyrrell Hatton… He was the hot item heading into Augusta National but he’s cooled considerably since then. Still has the mojo to win a major and finished T5 at Troon last year (finally breaking out of an 0-for-4 start to his Open Championship career).

Bernd Wiesberger… Has disappointed with nothing better than a T64 in four tries at The Open but like Hatton, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him finally pop in his fifth try. Arrives with top 30s in eight of his last nine worldwide starts.

Jordan Spieth… Getting away from all the Euro talent, we can’t forget about the Golden Boy, Spieth. If Royal Birkdale is a course that doesn’t allow for grip-it-and-rip-it golf then course management certainly gets a boost. That is where Spieth excels. Even when his off-the-tee game is sloppy, he generally knows the right areas to miss it and makes loads of par-saving putts to keep momentum rolling. Spieth also happens to be in the golden tee-time wave, going off at 9:47 AM on Thursday.

Hideki Matsuyama… His best finish at The Open came in his 2013 debut at Muirfield. That may be the best comp course to Royal Birkdale which bodes well for Hideki’s chances. He hasn’t played all that great on coastal course but everything lines up for a good week.

Tommy Fleetwood… Have him ranked in the 30-to-35 range based on raw stats alone. However, he does have the local factor which is not lost on anyone that has been researching or watching golf for the last six months. Having the weight of an entire town can help but it can also put a lot of pressure on his shoulders. High upside play this week? Absolutely. Overvalued in the betting market and DFS market? Absolutely. Would be #26 in my rankings if they expanded.

Steve Stricker… Finished T8 here back in 2008 and still playing solid golf in 2017. Made the cut on the number last week before torching TPC Deere Run over the weekend to backdoor a T5. If weather turns this into a grindfest, you got to think he finds his way into the mix, but in calm conditions he may have to settle for a T30-type finish. Would be #27 in my rankings.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Open Championship

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Jordan Spieth

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Hideki Matsuyama

6. Henrik Stenson

7. Justin Rose

8. Alex Noren

9. Jon Rahm

10. Rory McIlroy

11. Francesco Molinari

12. Tyrrell Hatton

13. Dustin Johnson

14. Bernd Wiesberger

15. Andy Sullivan

16. Martin Kaymer

17. Branden Grace

18. Louis Oosthuizen

19. Jason Day

20. Brant Snedeker

21. Adam Scott

22. Thomas Pieters

23. Justin Thomas

24. Brooks Koepka

25. Marc Leishman