Josh Culp's Blog, page 18

Scottish Open Fantasy Preview

With DraftKings missing the mark on the size of European Tour GPPs yet again, I wanted to get this article out one day earlier than usual. If you plan to enter contests for the Scottish Open then go enter them now, or at least reserve your spots, because most Euro GPPs will fill way before lineup lock this week.

Now for the event, we have a star-studded field assembled for a bit of Open Championship prep. The course is Dundonald Links which is new to the rota, so don’t dive too deep into tournament history. It’s a short, par 72 links track that will use weather as it’s defense.

So far the weather suggests a cold and rainy week. Surprise, surprise! Who would have guess that would be the case in Scotland. That does bring the potential for tee-time stacking into the equation more than usual.

Let’s get right down to business and check out some performance stats based on this week’s layout:

Top Performers on Links Layouts (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Soren Kjeldsen

Tyrrell Hatton

Alex Noren

Bradley Dredge

Fabrizio Zanotti

Graeme McDowell

David Horsey

Andy Sullivan

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Soren Kjeldsen

Andy Sullivan

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Byeong Hun An

Ross Fisher

Top Performers on Par 72 Courses (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Rory McIlroy

Branden Grace

Byeong Hun An

Bernd Wiesberger

Alex Noren

Chris Wood

Emiliano Grillo

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Byeong Hun An

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Branden Grace

Alex Noren

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Andy Sullivan

Chris Wood

Top Performers on Short Courses (since 2015)

Anirban Lahiri

Pablo Larrazabal

Alejandro Canizares

Richard Bland

Bernd Wiesberger

Julien Quesne

Alex Noren

David Lipsky

Maximilian Kieffer

Richie Ramsay

As you might have noticed, these are the exact same angles we looked at last week, so give a boost to anyone that played well last week at the Irish Open. The Euro Tour does a great job of setting up the Open Championship with similar layouts.

Golfers that show up on all five lists: Alex Noren and Bernd Wiesberger

Golfers that show up on four-of-five lists: Tyrrell Hatton

Golfers that show up on three-of-five lists: Henrik Stenson, Andy Sullivan, Martin Kaymer, Byeong Hun An

Golfers that show up on two-of-five lists: Branden Grace, Rory McIlroy, Soren Kjeldsen, Chris Wood

My Top 25 for the 2017 Scottish Open

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Alex Noren

3. Bernd Wiesberger

4. Henrik Stenson

5. Branden Grace

6. Byeong Hun An

7. Patrick Reed

8. Rickie Fowler

9. Adam Scott

10. Matt Kuchar

11. Martin Kaymer

12. Tyrrell Hatton

13. Ross Fisher

14. Hao Tong Li

15. Alexander Bjork

16. Andy Sullivan

17. Rafa Cabrera Bello

18. Chris Wood

19. Anirban Lahiri

20. Emiliano Grillo

21. Peter Uihlein

22. Matthew Fitzpatrick

23. Bradley Dredge

24. Pablo Larrazabal

25. Dean Burmester

John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview

While only one week remaining before the year’s third major, the PGA TOUR heads to Silvis, Illinois, for some prep work at the John Deere Clasic.

The course is TPC Deere Run, a mid-length par 71 without much bite to it. If the PGA TOUR was a video game, this would be one of the pre-loaded beginner courses. The fairways are easy to hit and the greens are easy to hit. It really comes down to a wedge and short-game competition, unless you’re spraying the ball all over the ballpark.

Just how easy is the tee-to-green challenge? Over the last five years, the field has averaged 65%+ fairways hit on 12 (of 14) possible driving holes. Four of those holes surrender a field average driving distance of less than 275 yards, so golfers can club down quite a bit when needed. As for hitting greens, the field has averaged a GIR percentage of 65% or higher on 15 holes at TPC Deere Run. Since the field is hitting 2/3 of their greens, it makes sense that the elite ball-strikers would lose some of their edge and instead a short-game festival pops up.

Translated to a statistical point-of-view, I’m targeting driving accuracy (distance from edge of fairway) and strokes gained putting, way more than usual this week. That’s not hard since I rarely weight either of those stats heavily on a week-to-week basis.

For weather this week, it looks like early-week thunderstorms could soften the course come tournament time, but the actual tournament window looks clear with highs in the mid 80s and nothing notable in the wind department. Probably not ideal prep for anyone that is set to make the chartered flight to Royal Birkdale at week’s end.

Looking for correlated events, a lot of courses that can’t be overpowered popped up. The one that showed the strongest correlations were TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield CC, Waialae CC, Colonial CC, and Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament history and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Steve Stricker… A three-time winner here and he enters with top 20s in three of his last five starts (4-of-6 if you count the Zurich team event). Never a sexy pick but TPC Deere Run is not a course that can easily be overpowered, making Stricker one of the favorites, if not THEE favorite.

Zach Johnson… Can’t talk about the John Deere Classic without mentioning the hometown hero, ZJ. He calls this his fifth major and biggest event of the season. Has six podium finishes here in his last eight attempts, including a 2012 win. COURSE HORSE.

Kevin Kisner… He’s admittedly raw in the world of major championship prep, making just his 11th start in a major next week. He’s going to give the whole “play the week before” a try. He took that same route here back in 2015 and finished T35, but he’s a much-improved golfer since then. From a correlated course perspective, not many fit the bill better since Kisner crushes Colonial, Wyndham and TPC Sawgrass while also owns a pair of top 5s at the Sony Open. Coming up a MC last week, but should rebound nicely.

Ryan Moore… The defending champ but returning from a shoulder injury that forced him to sit out a month. A great course fit but I will pass.

Bubba Watson … Returning for the first time since 2010. That tells us he’s trying to play his way back into form, or he’s just trying to play a new event to appease the new PGA TOUR rule. Either way, the course is not an ideal fit, except for the par 5s. They are the perfect range to where they are not too short but also not too long to where it becomes a three-shot hole. That means big hitters like Bubba, List, HV3, etc. should be able to feast on these par 5s and score plenty of DraftKings/FanDuel points, regardless of finish. Of course, they do need to worry about making it through the cut. Given the strength of the field, that shouldn’t be a huge problem. High upside, despite the poor season form.

Daniel Berger… Plenty of course studs at the top, but Berger is making his debut. We can’t forget about him since he has a win and a runner-up in his last three starts. From a scoring perspective, he’s hit the highest percentage of approach shots inside 20 feet over the last 10 weeks (next best: Garrigus, Castro, Every, Collins, Na, Wagner, Cejka, Bryan, B Martin). With the irons dialed in, the birdies should pile up rather quickly on an easy track like TPC Deere Run.

Curtis Luck… Running out of starts to earn his TOUR card this year but he’s trending with T5 and T20 finishes in the last two weeks. The putter is scorching (+9.5 SGP over last two starts). He’s going to need that to stay hot on a course like TPC Deere Run where a shootout is likely in the cards.

Danny Lee… Another top 10 last week, despite losing 2.2 strokes putting at the Greenbrier. Looking at the statistical profile of the last 10 winners here, Danny fits the profile to a tee (medicore off-the-tee, great approach, and great putting).

Kyle Stanley… While this event is typically a putting competition, Stanley has forced his name into the conversation with aggressive play off the tee. Making his first start since the big win, so will it snowball or will he hit a wall? Only one way to find out, but his track record here suggests he should keep it rolling.

Chez Reavie… If you want to play the “just needs the putter to get hot” game then Chez looks like a killer play this week. He’s one of the straightest players off the tee which comes in handy at TPC Deere Run. Should be delivering his approach packages from the fairway time after time which is what usually sets up his signature low rounds.

Brian Harman… If you want to don’t want to play putter roulette, then Harman may be the guy for you. He shoots arrows off the tee and the flat stick is his best weapon. Oddly enough, he won here in 2014 when losing strokes on the green (-0.8 SGP that week) and also posted a T24 the following year while losing 2.4 strokes putting. He’s shown he can win here without his best weapon, so watch out if he can actually manage to get his tee-to-green AND putter on the same page.

My Top 25 for the 2017 John Deere Classic

1. Steve Stricker

2. Zach Johnson

3. Kevin Kisner

4. Danny Lee

5. Brian Harman

6. Daniel Berger

7. Kyle Stanley

8. Kevin Na

9. Charles Howell III

10. Charley Hoffman

11. Bubba Watson

12. Robert Streb

13. Ben Martin

14. Bud Cauley

15. Curtis Luck

16. Daniel Summerhays

17. Chez Reavie

18. Kevin Streelman

19. Jamie Lovemark

20. Scott Brown

21. Matt Jones

22. William McGirt

23. Smylie Kaufman

24. Ryan Palmer

25. Geoff Ogilvy

Dubai Duty Free Irish Open Fantasy Preview

As the Open Championship draws nearer the field strength continues to rise on European soil.

This week the European Tour heads to Portstewart Golf Club in Northern Ireland. The field will take on a short, par 72 links layout against a strong field. Let’s have a quick look to see who has performed best in these conditions since 2015…

Top Performers on Links Layouts (since 2015)

Soren Kjeldsen

Tyrrell Hatton

Graeme McDowell

Tommy Fleetwood

Rafa Cabrera Bello

David Horsey

Fabrizio Zanotti

Bradley Dredge

Richard Sterne

Andy Sullivan

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Soren Kjeldsen

Andy Sullivan

Tyrrell Hatton

Lee Westwood

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tommy Fleetwood

Thongchai Jaidee

Danny Willett

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Joost Luiten

Top Performers on Par 72 Courses (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Tyrrell Hatton

Danny Willett

Thongchai Jaidee

Soren Kjeldsen

Thomas Aiken

Shane Lowry

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Joost Luiten

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Rory McIlroy

Tyrrell Hatton

Andy Sullivan

Soren Kjeldsen

Thongchai Jaidee

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Peter Uihlein

Lee Westwood

Danny Willett

Joost Luiten

Top Performers on Short Courses (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Pablo Larrazabal

Alejandro Canizares

Richard Bland

Danny Willett

David Lipsky

Julien Quesne

Maximilian Kieffer

George Coetzee

Thomas Pieters

Golfers that show up on all five lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on four-of-five lists: Tyrrell Hatton, Soren Kjeldsen, Danny Willett, Joost Luiten, Rafa Cabrera Bello

Golfers that show up on three-of-five lists: Andy Sullivan, Thongchai Jaidee

Golfers that show up on two-of-five lists: Tommy Fleetwood, Lee Westwood

My Top 25 for the 2017 Irish Open

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Jon Rahm

3. Justin Rose

4. Lee Westwood

5. Tyrrell Hatton

6. Thomas Pieters

7. Alexander Bjork

8. Rafa Cabrera Bello

9. Soren Kjeldsen

10. Hao Tong Li

11. Hideki Matsuyama

12. Andy Sullivan

13. Tommy Fleetwood

14. Pablo Larrazabal

15. Joost Luiten

16. Matthew Fitzpatrick

17. Jordan Smith

18. Shane Lowry

19. Peter Uihlein

20. Dean Burmester

21. Jaco Van Zyl

22. Bradley Dredge

23. Dylan Frittelli

24. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

25. Thongchai Jaidee

The Greenbrier Classic Fantasy Preview

Umbrella Gate ruined the chances for a Kang double (Danielle Kang winning on the LPGA Tour) but Kyle Stanley finally pulled through for gamers that were backing the elite ball-striker all season. He showed a lot of emotion in his post-round interviews, a good reminder about how much winning means to these TOUR pros.

For myself, last week was a big bust, as I tried to coast off Nappy Factor alone, but ended up having my worst week in DFS that I can recall. Looking back, I can say I narrowed my target list TOO far and made some dumb fades. Every week is a learning experience, so I am pumped to rebound this week at The Greenbrier Classic. Time to get back to the basics and take it easy with the fades.

The course on hand is The Old White TPC, a resort course tucked in the mountains of West Virgina. Looking for course history? You may notice that 2016 is missing. That was due to extreme flooding in the area which forced the TOUR to cancel the event, and it’s actually miraculous that the course is in such prestine condition just one year later. The course required a complete overhaul with fresh grasses laid on the fairways as well as the greens (bentgrass).

The event is known for being a laid-back tournament with a focus on activities for the whole family. From a handicapping perspective, I’m not sure that translates to anything relevant but it’s also worth noting golfers like Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson have property at the resort.

The course is tree-lined but the fairways are very generous, keeping it enjoyable for resort guests throughout the year. Because of the generous fairways, driving distance can be a nice advantage with a heavy dose of GIRs being the preferred method of scoring.

As far as correlated courses go, I think it’s relevant to target some courses in the general region, much like last week. The wide fairways with bentgrass greens make Muirfield Village an easy comp course, but I will also look at Firestone CC, Golf Club of Houston, Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, and the CareerBuilder Challenge.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament angles, golfer quotes, and course renovation notes.

Players to Watch

Patrick Reed… He’s rattled off top 25s in 6-of-7 starts since the Zurich Classic team event. Has 111 par breakers over that stretch. Has top 30s in two of his three visits to the Greenbrier Resort. We should see plenty of fireworks from Captain America this week as he appears ready to rip off his sixth career TOUR win very soon.

David Lingmerth… I mentioned his upside last week but ended up jumping off the train due to expected ownership. Very dumb if we just look from a results point-of-view. Now we’re heading to a venue where Lingy has finished T9-T16-T6 in three attempts. There is definitely something about this region of the country that suits Lingmerth. I guess we should keep riding the train until it derails on us.

Keegan Bradley… Speaking of the North, Keegan has ripped off back-to-back top 10s, both played north of the Bermuda-Dixon line (not a real thing, don’t google this). He’s gained 17 strokes tee-to-green in those two starts combined. That’s juicy.

Phil Mickelson… First event since the breakup with Bones, a bit of a wildcard how he’ll play in the short term. Lefty is also the face of the Greenbrier falconry commercials, so you know he’s familiar with the area. Of course, he is 0-for-3 here but those came in 2011, 2012, and 2013. I’m not going to let that worry me, since Kevin Kisner’s Greenbrier resume looked very similar before he found his way into a playoff in his fourth attempt. Mickelson is playing some great golf in 2017, and looks ready to return to the winner’s circle.

Gary Woodland … Nappy Factor didn’t work for me, but maybe it will for Woodland. He went through a mid-season slump directly after the heart-breaking news that him and his wife lost one of their (not-yet born) twins. The other twin successfully popped out last week so it should be all smiles from Woodland this week. Has a T4 on his Greenbrier resume (2011) and I wouldn’t be too surprised if he kicked off some kind of summertime streak, starting this week.

Webb Simpson… Has a trio of top 10s at this event, in six visits. Finding some confidence on the greens lately (+2.5 SGP last start, +5.3 SGP @ Colonial, +3 SGP @ THE PLAYERS). Another top 10 just may be in the cards this week.

Curtis Luck… A huge week last week in DC earned him a spot this week. The previous World No. 1 amateur likely earned a spot in the Web.com Tour Finals which will give him a chance to pick up a TOUR card for the 2017-18 season. He could skip the Finals altogether if he can manage one or two more great finishes on the big stage. The results finally matched up with the talent last week, so I think he’s worth a flyer to see if the momentum keeps rolling.

Danny Lee… Not slowing his pace with four top 25s in his last six starts. Now he returns to the site of his only win on TOUR.

Kevin Kisner… Missed his first three cuts at this course before finding his way into a playoff in 2015. Probably has the best season-long form of anyone in the field. Combine that with a near-miss here, and it’s hard to overlook him.

Graham DeLaet… With very generous fairways, that means elite ball-strikers should have no troubles hitting green after green. That is where GDL shines. Was a letdown last week but playing in extreme heat has not been kind to him over the years. Will get a bit of a relief this week as the current forecast calls for upper 70s and low 80s instead of low 90s like last week.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Greenbrier

1. Patrick Reed

2. Bill Haas

3. Phil Mickelson

4. Kevin Kisner

5. David Lingmerth

6. Webb Simpson

7. Danny Lee

8. Gary Woodland

9. Keegan Bradley

10. Bubba Watson

11. Charles Howell III

12. Graham DeLaet

13. J.B. Holmes

14. Russell Henley

15. Tony Finau

16. Xander Schauffele

17. Curtis Luck

18. Robert Streb

19. Sean O’Hair

20. Ben Martin

21. Kevin Streelman

22. Ollie Schniederjans

23. James Hahn

24. Sung Kang

25. Jamie Lovemark

Open de France Fantasy Preview

Looking to rebound this week after Thongchai Jaidee left my lineups in shambles last week.

Now we head to Le Golf National, the site of next year’s Ryder Cup, for the HNA Open de France.

The course is a beauty, but it’s no cakewalk. The field has averaged nearly two strokes over par during the last 10 runnings of this event. The greens are T-1 bentgrass, there is water in play on at least 1/3 of the holes, and the par 5s are mostly unreachable boring.

Playing the second event of the Rolex Series, we have quite the strong field lining up to take on Le Golf National so let’s have a look at some past performance lists to see if we can find some golfers that really pop.

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Francesco Molinari

Soren Kjeldsen

Martin Kaymer

Danny Willett

Chris Wood

Thongchai Jaidee

Russell Knox

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Soren Kjeldsen

Francesco Molinari

Martin Kaymer

Andy Sullivan

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Thongchai Jaidee

Top Performers on Hard Courses (since 2015)

Francesco Molinari

Alex Noren

Martin Kaymer

Lee Westwood

Thongchai Jaidee

Joost Luiten

Chris Wood

Gregory Bourdy

Bernd Wiesberger

Soren Kjeldsen

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Francesco Molinari

Alex Noren

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Soren Kjeldsen

Thongchai Jaidee

Andy Sullivan

Russell Knox

Golfers that show up on all four lists: Francesco Molinari, Alex Noren, Bernd Wiesberger, Martin Kaymer, Chris Wood, Soren Kjeldsen

Golfers that show up on three-of-four lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on two-of-four lists: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Andy Sullivan, Russell Knox

My Top 25 for the 2017 Open de France

1. Francesco Molinari

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Martin Kaymer

4. Alex Noren

5. Jon Rahm

6. Thongchai Jaidee

7. Soren Kjeldsen

8. Lee Westwood

9. Ian Poulter

10. Joost Luiten

11. Andy Sullivan

12. Chris Wood

13. Ross Fisher

14. Tyrrell Hatton

15. Shane Lowry

16. Gregory Bourdy

17. Richard Sterne

18. Matthew Fitzpatrick

19. Graeme McDowell

20. Nicolas Colsaerts

21. Jaco Van Zyl

22. Bradley Dredge

23. Peter Hanson

24. Thomas Pieters

25. James Morrison

Quicken Loans National Fantasy Preview

After week of not watching golf, I am ready to dive back in with the Nappy Factor on my side.

I welcomed my daughter, Posey Elizabeth Culp, into the world on Wednesday night and watched just one clip of the entire Travelers Championship (Spieth’s bunker hole out to win the playoff).

I’m less than a week into dad life, but it’s easy to see how priorities shift when golfers (or anyone) becomes a father for the first time, and how it could potentially lead to an uptick in performance based on mindset alone. Hopefully, that works for fantasy golf, as well. I don’t have many hours of sleep or research on my side this week, but the Baby Swag is seeping off my keyboard. No wait, that’s just spit-up.

With a somewhat new course on tap this week, I would generally spend hours doing research to break down the course on a granular level. Instead of diving too deep, I’m going to instead focus on the basic details we do know and look at some correlated events that may help, as well.

The course is TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, previsouly TPC Avenel, which hosted the Booz Allen Classic nearly 20 times. The course was a short, par 70 with poa annua greens but it underwent a complete overhaul in 2009, so I won’t put much emphasis at all on those past results. The course received fresh bentgrass greens and zoysia on the fairways (we’ve seen zoysia in Rio and Memphis).

With previous winners (pre-renovation) including Justin Leonard, Steve Stricker, Ben Curtis, Stuart Appleby, and Bob Estes, it’s clear that distance is not required but it’s never a bad thing to have distance, though, as Adam Scott and Rory Sabbatini proved during their wins here.

The venue has also hosted the Mid-Atlantic Championship on the Web.com Tour in 2012 and 2013. David Lingmerth and Michael Putnam won those events but the 2012 edition was played in the fall with temperatures barely cracking the 50s during the final round. The next year it was played in early June which should play closer to this week’s conditions.

Speaking of weather, the current forecast calls for upper-80s/low-90s this week so performance in hot weather should be given a look.

While I’m not weighing course history very much, if at all, I do think event history still deserves a look. Playing in this region of the country seems to be a good skill to have as Ben Curtis is an Ohio native and David Lingmerth won the Memorial in Ohio. Some good results in the Northeast region is certainly a good thing to have on your resume if you want to succeed in the D.C. area.

That is the trend trend for the correlated courses I picked out this week: TPC Boston, Muirfield Village, Firestone CC, TPC River Highlands, and The Barclays are all events I would group into the same region. I will also have a look at TPC Southwind because of the zoysia connection as well as the Greenbrier Classic for proxmity reasons, as well.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac to check out which angles I will target this week and scroll down to the bottom for a link to a tremendous course description from Golf with Phil Sokol.

Players to Watch

Rickie Fowler… Leads the betting market this week and it’s for good reason. He’s beat the field average by 6 or more strokes in 8 of his last 10 starts leading up to this week. That includes five top-5 finishes. The only argument I would find against him is the “only playing this event due to sponsor’s obligations.” That is easily dismissed when you see he is 2-for-2 since Quicken Loans took over sponsorship duties, including a runner-up finish in 2015 (different course).

Kevin Chappell… Sometimes a maiden win opens up the door for a slump but Chappell remains dialed in, gaining 20.7 strokes over the field in his four starts since winning. The biggest weapon remains his approach game which has been money since his return to the old clubs just before the Masters. Another top 30 should be in the cards this week.

Bill Haas… If we think distance is muted this week, than Haas becomes a major factor on my board. With top 25s in each of his last three starts, he’s definitely worth a look.

David Lingmerth… He won the Web.com Tour event played at this course, so we know he’ll have a leg up to begin with over much of the field (at least confidence wise). Even if it was in much cooler conditions. He is also a course horse at Muirfield Village, a closeby venue with bentgrass greens and loads of long par 4s just like TPC Potomac. It’s early on Monday, but the hype train is already in full gear on Lingy, meaning he may become fadeworthy in DFS formats due to him getting talked up a bit too much. A good high-upside play on paper, though.

Nick Watney … Has made 9 of his last 11 cuts without really cracking the radar for most gamers. If one of our correlated events is the Barclays, Watney has four top 10s at that event including a win.

Billy Hurley III… Playing the role of defending champ for the first time in his career. It may be a good thing that the course is different this year, because they removes a bit of the pressure to repeat. Still, he brings the local angle which is why he’s thrived so frequently in this event. In his career he has nine finishes of T8 or better on the PGA TOUR, and THREE of them have come at the Quicken Loans National. Sure, those all came at Congressional, but I still think he’ll have a nice level of comfort this week, playing so close to home.

Keegan Bradley… Another golfer from the Northeast, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he found his way back into contention last week in Cromwell, Connecticut. His track record at the WGC-Bridgestone is through the roof, posting five top 20s including a win, in five tries.

Danny Lee… Not sure when the engagement happened, but I saw Lee recently found himself a girl he wants to spend the rest of his life with. I was dismissing his form before last week because both of his good recent finishes came in the Dallas area, right in his backyard. But now with top 10s in three of his last five starts and his personal life appearing to be in a good place, I am on board. His lone win on TOUR also came at the Greenbrier, less than 250 miles from this week’s venue.

Si Woo Kim… Grades out as an elite course fit, as you’ll see when my Search for a Specialist article goes live on Rotogrinders this week (usually Tuesday night). His long-term stats grade out as wonky as you can find, but that’s largely due to him playing through injuries and withdrawing when the game/back doesn’t show up. That should be less of a factor now that he’s locked up his TOUR card for quite some time. The results show, as he’s gained 5+ strokes over the field in three of his last four starts. I wouldn’t throw him in a cash game on FanDuel or DraftKings due to his high WD-rate, but he’s definitely a high-upside GPP pick to conisder.

Jimmy Walker… If we think Zoysia fairways are unique enough to matter, than Walker should get a boost. His home course has zoysia from tee-to-green, of course his schedule has been calm lately as he tries to recover from Lyme Disease. That keeps him in the GPP-only category for me.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Quicken Loans National

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Bill Haas

3. Patrick Reed

4. Marc Leishman

5. Tony Finau

6. Justin Thomas

7. Kevin Chappell

8. Brendan Steele

9. Byeong Hun An

10. Ollie Schniederjans

11. Bud Cauley

12. Danny Lee

13. Billy Horschel

14. David Lingmerth

15. Graham DeLaet

16. Billy Hurley III

17. Kyle Stanley

18. Si Woo Kim

19. Keegan Bradley

20. Ben Martin

21. J.B. Holmes

22. Grayson Murray

23. Jason Kokrak

24. Daniel Summerhays

25. Jimmy Walker

BMW International Open Fantasy Preview

Keeping it simple again this week as he prep for the BMW International in Germany.

The course has been used recently in 1997, 2011, 2013, and 2015, for all you gamers looking at course history. It’s a par 72 that plays to 7,181 or 7,235 yards (depending on which page you click on at EuropeanTour.com). Either way, it should be a birdie fest with the average winning score over the last three editions played here being 271 (-17).

Stenson recently , “It’s a low-scoring golf course,” he said. “You’re going to make a lot of birdies. The winning score is normally close to 20 under around there.

One thing I will mention is to double check the field list if you are entering DraftKings lineups. Over the past month, they’ve been hit-or-miss on whether they pull the correct withdraw information. Two weeks ago, for example, they had no OUT next to Bourdy’s name even though he was not in the field at the time I wrote my preview. He ended up being over 10% owned, so make sure you don’t fall into those mistakes.

Another thing to consider is jetlag for any golfers flying straight from the U.S. Open. Guys who played all four rounds last week may be able to keep the momentum rolling this week, but they are also at risk for packing it in early if they get off to a sloppy start.

With that being said, let’s have a look at our top performers on a few key angles this week…

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Martin Kaymer

Thongchai Jaidee

Sergio Garcia

Andy Sullivan

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Joost Luiten

Richard Sterne

Tommy Fleetwood

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Martin Kaymer

Andy Sullivan

Thongchai Jaidee

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Joost Luiten

Tommy Fleetwood

James Morrison

Sergio Garcia

Top Performers on Easy Courses (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Victor Dubuisson

Peter Hanson

Tommy Fleetwood

Thongchai Jaidee

Andy Sullivan

Martin Kaymer

Jaco Van Zyl

Top Performers on Par 72 Courses (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Martin Kaymer

Sergio Garcia

Thongchai Jaidee

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Joost Luiten

Jaco Van Zyl

Alexander Bjork

Golfers that show up on all four lists: Henrik Stenson, Bernd Wiesberger, Martin Kaymer, Thongchai Jaidee

Golfers that show up on three-of-four lists: Sergio Garcia, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Joost Luiten, Andy Sullivan, Tommy Fleetwood

Golfers that show up on two-of-four lists: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Jaco Van Zyl

My Top 25 for the 2017 BMW International

1. Henrik Stenson

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Martin Kaymer

5. Joost Luiten

6. Thongchai Jaidee

7. Tommy Fleetwood

8. Rafa Cabrera Bello

9. Pablo Larrazabal

10. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

11. Peter Hanson

12. Jaco Van Zyl

13. Andy Sullivan

14. Jordan Smith

15. James Morrison

16. David Horsey

17. Alexander Bjork

18. Mikko Korhonen

19. Brandon Stone

20. Victor Dubuisson (Always a WD threat)

21. Maximilian Kieffer

22. George Coetzee

23. Dean Burmester

24. Nicolas Colsaerts

25. Mike Lorenzo-Vera

Travelers Championship Fantasy Preview

After an exciting, but odd, week at Erin Hills it is time to get your umbrellas out and head east for the Travelers Championship in Cromwell, Connecticut.

Big props to anyone that successfully faded Rory, DJ, Day, Rahm, Scott, Charl, and Rose last week. I did not see that coming, but overexposure to Brooks certainly helped salvage what could have been a disastrous week.

This week’s course is TPC River Highlands. It’s a par 70 that plays at just 6,841 yards… a bit shorter than last week’s venue that stretched out past 7,800 yards. River Highlands is a Pete Dye Design with bentgrass greens. There are two holes where the field averages less than 260 yards off the tee (423-yard par-4 17th and 341-yard par-4 2nd). Other than that, it’s not extremely restrictive off the tee.

From a layout perspective, seven of the par 4s land between 410-to-450 yards. Golfers that score well from this range include: Paul Casey, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, William McGirt, and Daniel Berger. We are looking for golfers that can thrive with their wedges and short irons this week. Chris Stroud had this to say about the course in 2015, “I’m not a bomber, so it’s nice to be able to have a lot of short irons into the greens. I even have a note in my yardage book, as long as I’m sharp from 100 yards to 165 this week.”

There is some water in play off the tee here, but it’s nothing extreme like the St. Jude Classic or TPC Sawgrass. With driving relatively easy here, I am looking primarily at strokes gained approach for my key stat. Paul Casey laid it out nicely a few years ago, “they’re tucking the pins away and putting them on some funky little slopes. If you short side yourself, especially if you get over these greens, you’re going to be in a world of hurt.” For that reason, any stat that looks at iron play should be very important this week (SG Approach, GIR percentage, Proximity, etc.).

Looking for similar courses, I found the following to be closely correlated: Sheshan International, Riviera CC, Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, TPC Boston, and TPC Sawgrass.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more information on course setup, tournament angles, and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Paul Casey… Was right in the mix at Erin Hills before losing the battle with the fescue one too many times. Has gained 5 or more strokes over the field in 8 of his last 10 starts. Really strong form and he’s finished runner-up and T17 in two appearances here.

Emiliano Grillo… Never got it going at Erin Hills, missing his first cut since January at the CareerBuilder. Speaking of cuts made, the Argentine is a perfect 12-for-12 in making cuts during the summer season. Summer Soltice begins Wednesday, so I guess it’s the perfect time to hop on the Grillo bandwagon and see if he can keep it rolling in the heat.

Rory McIlroy … Returned from an injury and instantly missed the cut. Had to be some rust in that long game, right? Not exactly. He gained 2.98 strokes off-the-tee and 1.18 strokes approach, but gave back nearly 6 shots with his putter! It was the first time he was using the fancy Spider putter that Day/DJ/Sergio/Rahm/Harman/Half the TOUR uses. I don’t think he’d make the switch if he was putting that poorly ahead of time. Should get it corrected, and should be right back in contention this week.

Jason Day… While Rory had an awful week putting at Erin Hills, Jason Day continued to struggle with his iron game. Day lost 4.63 strokes approaching-the-green. He hasn’t gained strokes on approach since the Farmers back in January. I don’t think the slump lasts forever, but I’m also not ruling out a serious problem in his swing that may take even longer to fix. I owned ZERO shares of Day last week, and I’m debating on whether I should do the same thing this week. Right now I’m leaning toward a fade and waiting until he has at least one week of gaining strokes on approach.

Bubba Watson… Another potential big-name fade for anyone looking to cut down their player pool. But is that the right move? Over the last five years he’s racked up 87 birdies at TPC River Highlands and he’s won here twice (2010, 2015). The T6 at the Memorial is nice to see but it’s also important to remember that is his only top 30 of the season (excluding SBS Tourney of Champs where he finished 25th of 32). Right now he’s still on my list of playable golfers, but I’m keeping my expectations low.

Jim Furyk… Sticking to golfers that fell off the map this year, Furyk finally snapped a slide of six straight MCs when he finished T23 last week at Erin Hills. Now he returns to the site of his infamous 58, consider me slightly interested.

Webb Simpson… Some of the recent winners here include Bubba Watson, Russell Knox, and Ken Duke. Not exactly a list of golfers you’d paid to give you a putting lesson. That bodes well for someone like Webb who has struggled with the flat stick but actually found some putting form recently. It would not be surprising to see him keep the hot putter rolling on these greens.

Bud Cauley… Much like Webb, Cauley has been a pretty bad putter over the last few years but seems to be rolling a few more in lately. That has resulted in top 25s in four of his last six starts, three of those doubling as top 10s. He’s never the safest play to earn a paycheck but I like him as a boom-or-bust GPP option on FanDuel or DraftKings.

Wyndham Clark… This kid could be the real deal. His Sagarin Rating for his senior season was 68.41 which is worse than Rahm’s senior year but better than Rahm’s junior season. That also grades out better than plenty of other top-tier talent that we’ve seen flash some PGA TOUR success (Ollie Schniderjans, Bryson DeChambeau, Lee McCoy, Robby Shelton, Aaron Wise, et al). I’m not diving into the deep end with him this week, but I will dip my toes in the pool. Same goes for Brett Coletta who recently showed he can hang with a T25 at the Memorial.

Patrick Reed… I talked about Day’s approach game being in shambles. That was Reed just a few months ago but he’s really rounding into form with top 25s in four of his last five starts, gaining strokes on approach in four of the five. Wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up his sixth career victory before the summer is over.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Travelers

1. Paul Casey

2. Rory Mcilroy

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Marc Leishman

5. Justin Thomas

6. Patrick Reed

7. Jason Day

8. Brandt Snedeker

9. Webb Simpson

10. Bubba Watson

11. Brian Harman

12. Byeong Hun An

13. Daniel Berger

14. Tony Finau

15. Emiliano Grillo

16. Bud Cauley

17. Jim Furyk

18. Brendan Steele

19. Charley Hoffman

20. Zach Johnson

21. Graham DeLaet

22. Russell Knox

23. Kevin Na

24. Ryan Palmer

25. Kyle Stanley

U.S. Open Championship Fantasy Preview

As the second major championship of the season rolls around, the TOUR preps for a new venue, Erin Hills in Wisconsin.

The new kid on the block was designed to be a beast when it was built in the early 2000s, and that is what draws the headlines leading up to the event. Playing at the tips, this course plays over 8,000 yards but the USGA has provided 45 tee boxes on the scorecard this year and if the shortest boxes were used it would play as short as 7,305 yards. We should expect a happy medium as the official yardage will be cited around 7,741 yards.

FIRM and FAST conditions with WIDE fairways should reduce the true yardage, as long as you’re not spraying the ball into the fescue. If the course gets hammered with rain before Thursday like it might (About 1.6 inches forecasted from Monday thru Wednesday), the fairway rollout may lessen a bit but the fairways should still have some bounce in ’em.

With all that length, a big topic of discussion will be distance this week. Kelly Kraft had this to say en route to his victory here at the 2011 U.S. Amateur, “not every day you play one that is so firm like that and the ball can roll forever.” Of course that was played in late August so perhaps the conditions were a little firmer then. Still, to me this screams strokes gained off-the-tee as the top stat this week because distance will be a nice advantage but if you can gain strokes just by keeping it between the pipes then the shorter hitters are going to be using the fairways like a bowling alley, just letting the firm fairways carry their ball past some of the bombers who sprayed their ball into the high grass.

With seven par 4s over 450 yards and all four par 5s stretching out past 575 yards, we should see plenty of big numbers as golfers try to recover from errant tee shots. However, the generous fairways should also allow golfers to take it real low (by USGA standards) if they have a good driving day. The wind is going to be the biggest defense for Erin Hills since there are less than 10 trees in play over the entire course. It is very links-like in that regard and will ultimately decide whether the winner is 1-under or 11-under by week’s end. Keep a close eye on the wind forecasts.

Course comparisons will be tossed around all week, and I am often guilty of getting caught up in this game of connect the dots. I will provide some course/event comps but I do want to preface that by saying you shouldn’t rely heavily on course comparisons, just as an added element of handicapping.

After the gaudy length, the first thing I notice about Erin Hills is the rolling fairways which lead to uneven lies left and right (similar to Augusta National or Kapalua). The grass types (bentgrass/fescue) in combination with tricky bunkers and the lack of trees/water lead us to looking at the Open Championship. The number of blind shots and elevated greens could lead it to play like a Pete Dye design. Lastly, the difficulty of setup means we should look at prior success in PGA Championships and U.S. Opens. Basically, we are looking for solid performance in major championships.

After Chucky 3 Sticks played the course back in 2006 he called it Whistling Straits on steroids which I think may be the best 1-to-1 comp we have given the look and length of the course as well as the location. Do you really need to inject steroids into a 7,500 yard course though?

Looking for trends of the past winners at this event?

==> Each of the last nine winners had at least one top-6 finish in their five most recent PGA TOUR prep starts (a sign of form is important).

==> Also, prior success on a USGA setup has been crucial. Nine of the last 10 winners have already had a top 20 on their U.S. Open resume prior to winning. While I think this basic idea is important, don’t let it be a strict guideline and rule out someone like Jon Rahm just because he’s played the U.S. Open once and finished T23 instead of finding the top 20.

Enough of the babbling, check out the Fantasy Golfanac if you want to read more quotes or angles on this week’s setup.

Players to Watch

Jordan Spieth… With a new course on hand, guys like Jordan Spieth and Jason Day immediately pop to the forefront since they are elite when it comes to scouting and gameplanning a new track. Day’s approach game is in shambles at the moment which drops him down my board but Spieth is right on the cusp of putting it all together. He’s gained strokes off the tee in three of his last seven lasered events and gained strokes putting in 3-of-7 as well. However, he hasn’t gained strokes off-the-tee AND putting in the same week since the AT&T Pro-Am, which happens to be the last time he won. Arrives with a runner-up just two starts ago and we know he can handle what the USGA throws at him , posting three top 25s in five U.S. Open starts including his win at Chambers Bay.

Brooks Koepka… Looking at his recent form, Koepka is locked in again tee-to-green, with the only thing holding him back recently is too many trips to the water hazards. With a linksy-style course on deck, Koepka should be able to bomb-and-gouge Erin Hills without the fear of finding water. He’s always been a self-proclaimed Hard Course Specialist so it’s no surprise he already owns eight top 20s on his major championship resume including a T5 at Whistling Straits. My heart tells me Brooks is ready to win a major.

Steve Stricker … Will be the media darling this week as he tees it up in his home state. He keeps it between the pipes and he’s one of the best putters in the world. No stranger to U.S. Open success either, posting up inside the top 10 after R3 in 6 of his 19 U.S. Open starts.

Matt Kuchar… Sticking to the same mold, Kuchar will keep it between the fescue and has every shot in the bag, except for the 320-yard drive. Now that Sergio’s knocked off a major, Kuchar is right up there with Hideki, Rahm, and Fowler, as the most elite golfers currently without a major. With more than 10 blind shots on the course this week, I’m thinking success on Pete Dye tracks could come in handy, and Kuchar is the man when it comes to Pete Dye performance.

Thomas Pieters… If we’re looking for a boom-bust option that will either be 4-under or 4-over come Thursday afternoon, Pieters is the man. Definitely has the talent to win a major but I’m not going to bank on that in his first look at a U.S. Open setup. Love him as a GPP option on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Rickie Fowler… The American in that same mold as Pieters would be Fowler. He has all the tools to win a major, but he’s not afraid of a good Thursday blowup (as we saw last week at the St. Jude Classic). In 8 U.S. Open starts he’s been inside the top 10 after R1 on two occasions but he’s also been outside the top 100 three times, all on rounds of 76 or worse. Before last week’s MC he had posted top 20s in seven of his last eight starts, so let’s not completely forget about him.

Rory McIlroy… Returning from injury with the ever-so-popular Spyder putter in his bag now. Would be the man to beat here if he arrived without any injury concerns and a normal workload of events played. That is far from the case, though, which forces you to put a RISKY label next to his name. Kind of hard to imagine him piecing together four solid rounds after such a long layoff.

Billy Horschel… Nearly backdoored a win last week after looking like he may miss the cut after R1. We know Billy is a self-proclaimed momentum player, so he could be one to watch this week.

Maverick McNealy… Should be an interesting summer for McNealy. The top amateur in the field (and possibly the world) has a few starts locked up and if they go well then we can expect him to turn pro. If he suffers, then we may see him pivot and head his way up the corporate ladder. He’s 3-for-4 on the PGA TOUR but nothing inside the top 45, so I am keeping a close eye on him but not rushing out to own him just yet.

Dustin Johnson… Gets to enjoy the birth of his second child early in the week before heading to Erin Hills to play the role of defending champ. Looking at our top comp course (Whistling Straits), DJ posted finishes of T5 and T7 the last two times the TOUR played there. Other golfers with top 10s in both trips: Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Matt Kuchar.

Branden Grace… Erin Hills is an Irish-inspired links-style course, although they like to call it a “heartland” course. You can’t deny the links attributes (wide fairways, exposed to the wind, bentgrass & fescue grasses, tricky bunkers). The golfer in the field who outperforms his baseline most on links courses is Branden Grace. Also has four top 5s in major championships, so he’s not scared of the spotlight.

Shane Lowry… Early reports say golfers will be pulling driver A LOT this week. Looking at performance on driver-heavy courses, Lowry sees the biggest leap in performance over his baseline. He’s not too shabby on a links-style track, either. Just missed out on my top 25 but it wouldn’t be too shocking to see him pop this week.

My Top 25 for the 2017 U.S. Open

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Adam Scott

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Justin Rose

7. Jon Rahm

8. Brooks Koepka

9. Rickie Fowler

10. Charl Schwartzel

11. Jason Day

12. Rory McIlroy

13. Steve Stricker

14. Louis Oosthuizen

15. Branden Grace

16. Paul Casey

17. Brandt Snedeker

18. Martin Kaymer

19. Thomas Pieters

20. Lee Westwood

21. Henrik Stenson

22. Francesco Molinari

23. Jason Dufner

24. Byeong Hun An

25. Billy Horschel

Lyoness Open Fantasy Preview

With the European Tour website insisting on making it harder to find relevant info about a tournament and course, I’m going to keep the format simple like just like the past few weeks.

I will throw up a few stat lists and then combine the lists at the bottom to see who checks the most boxes. It worked pretty well last week except for Joost who ruined a GREAT week, making it just an average week, instead.

For the Lyoness Open we head to Austria to take on Diamond CC. It’s a par 72 that stretches out past 7,400 yards and has bent/poa greens as far my notes tell me.

Besides the obvious Austrian (Wiesberger) I will also have a close eye on Matthias Schwab who is making his pro debut this week. Great scheduling on his part to debut back in his home country. We’ve seen some recent success from noted amateurs when they play close to home (McCoy @ Valspar, Rahm @ Scottsdale, Shelton @ Barbasol, M. Johnson @ Barbasol) so that definitely has my attention. Schwab already has four appearances at this course (3-for-4 including a T14 in 2013) so that also has been interested. Onto the stats…

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Joost Luiten

Jaco Van Zyl

Richard Bland

Mikko Korhonen

James Morrison

Benjamin Hebert

Alejandro Canizares

Alexander Bjork

Maximilian Kieffer

Top Performers in Europe (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Joost Luiten

James Morrison

Richard Bland

Jaco Van Zyl

David Horsey

Alejandro Canizares

Mikko Korhonen

Miguel Angel Jimenez

Nino Bertasio

Top Performers versus Weak Fields (since 2015)

Joost Luiten

Bernd Wiesberger

Jaco Van Zyl

Mikko Korhonen

Robert Rock

David Horsey

Trevor Fisher Jr.

Richard Bland

Anthony Wall

Benjamin Hebert

Top Performers on Long Courses (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Jaco Van Zyl

Alejandro Canizares

Trevor Fisher Jr.

Joost Luiten

Kristoffer Broberg

Chris Hanson

James Morrison

Ashun Wu

Alexander Bjork

Top Performers on Par 72s (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Jaco Van Zyl

Joost Luiten

Alexander Bjork

Alejandro Canizares

Julien Quesne

Maximilian Kieffer

Ashun Wu

James Morrison

Dylan Frittelli

Golfers that show up on all five lists: Bernd Wiesberger, Joost Luiten, Jaco Van Zyl

Golfers that show up on four-of-five lists: James Morrison, Alejandro Canizares

Golfers that show up on three-of-five lists: Alexander Bjork, Mikko Korhonen, Richard Bland

My Top 25 for the Lyoness Open

1. Bernd Wiesberger

2. Joost Luiten

3. Mikko Korhonen

4. James Morrison

5. Jaco Van Zyl

6. Benjamin Hebert

7. Eduardo De La Riva

8. David Horsey

9. Richard Bland

10. Alexander Bjork

11. Ashun Wu

12. Robert Rock

13. Julien Quesne

14. Julian Suri

15. Maximilian Kieffer

16. Anthony Wall

17. Alejandro Canizares

18. Graeme Storm

19. Dylan Frittelli

20. Chris Hanson

21. Zander Lombard

22. Matthias Schwab

23. Nino Bertasio

24. Paul Waring

25. Stephen Gallacher