Josh Culp's Blog, page 22

Dubai Desert Classic Fantasy Preview

We head to the Emirates Golf Club for this week’s Dubai Desert Classic.

If the forecast holds true, we’ve got a really windy one on our hands. Winds are forecasted for 25-to-30 mph on both Thursday and Friday with Friday getting gusts at much higher speeds.

Will there be a wave advantage? Golfers that start Thursday AM & Friday PM may get the weakest wind to start but then get blasted with the hardest test in Round 2. The Thursday PM & Friday AM wave will have a tough test on both days. It’s a bit hard to see who will escape with the better draw. If the winds get too nasty on Friday then Thursday AM starters may get lucky and have their second rounds delayed until Saturday.

It’s one of those weeks to throw in a few “Wave Teams” on DraftKings in case one side of the draw gets the clear advantage.

Other than that, this course is rather easy (in calm conditions). It’s a par 72 desert-style layout with bermuda greens. On the European Tour website they were claiming to be running at 13’6″ on Monday! Those kind of speeds should help the ball-strikers more than putters.

Course history is something I’d take a strong look at considering there have been four repeat champs since 2002 (Els, Gallacher, Tiger, Rory).

Players to Watch

Stephen Gallacher… Has a remarkable track record here including wins in 2013 and 2014.

Tyrrell Hatton … He’s been impressive overseas but still trying to earn some spotlight. Winning an event that Tiger Woods is playing in would certainly do the trick.

Bernd Wiesberger … Love his consistency. Has a very solid track record at Emirates GC but nothing has really popped yet. If conditions get tough this week, I like his chances to par the course to death.

Rafa Cabrera Bello … RCB won this event in 2012 and finished runner-up last year.

Thorbjorn Olesen … Plenty of big hitters have excelled here in the past. The Dane has a third-place finish on his DDC resume and I like his chances to jump back into contention. He’s very boom-or-bust, though.

Tiger Woods … He’s won here twice, but that was obviously a different Tiger. Shook off the rust last week. Worth a flier or two because I expect him to regain some of his old form very soon.

Lee Westwood … A steady Eddie at this venue. He tends to play well time and time again at the courses he likes.

Courses Horses … Keeping things simple, here are a list of guys that stand out in terms of past performance at the course:

Henrik Stenson

Martin Kaymer

Lee Westwood

Stephen Gallacher

Robert Rock

Ross Fisher

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Andy Sullivan

Alvaro Quiros

Chris Wood

Bernd Wiesberger

My Top 25 for the Dubai Desert Classic

1. Bernd Wiesberger

2. Martin Kaymer

3. Henrik Stenson

4. Rafa Cabrera Bello

5. Ross Fisher

6. Chris Wood

7. Lee Westwood

8. Andy Sullivan

9. Tyrrell Hatton

10. Thomas Aiken

11. Graeme McDowell

12. Peter Hanson

13. Tommy Fleetwood

14. Anthony Wall

15. Joost Luiten

16. Maximilian Kieffer

17. Jorge Campillo

18. Pablo Larrazabal

19. Peter Uihlein

20. Robert Rock

21. Danny Willett

22. Nicolas Colsaerts

23. Thomas Pieters

24. Thorbjorn Olesen

25. Stephen Gallacher

Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview

After some pre-cut carnage a lot of cream rose to the top of the Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard last week. Jon Rahm “finally” secured his breakout win while other breakout candidates like Patrick Rodgers, Ollie Schnierjans, and C.T. Pan were knocking on his heels.

This week we leave the coast but we stay in the West for the Greenest Show on Grass. I was lucky enough to attend last year, and have to say it lives up to the hype it receives. Just make sure you get to the 16th hole real early if you’re going on the weekend.

The course this week is TPC Scottsdale. Finally back to just one course after some 2- and 3-course events over the last few weeks. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 that checks in just under 7,300 yards. There aren’t a ton of hazards right off the fairway but if you get too errant then you’ll quickly find trouble in the desert.

The course lets you use driver for most of the round. If you look at some of the recent winners (Matsuyama, Koepka, Phil, Mahan) you’ll see that letting it fly can really have it’s advantages around here. Then you see guys like Mark Wilson and Ben Crane have success and realize that distance isn’t the only route to success here.

It’s also worth noting that Tom Weiskopf came through here and made some renovations before the 2015 edition. You may remember that name from last week as he’s the architect who also renovated the North Course at Torrey Pines before this year’s running of the Farmers. Old Tommy Weiskopf added over 100 yards to the layout, laid new greens, and reconfigured bunkers. All of the changes made it slightly more challenging, but don’t mistake that for major-championship level of difficulty. There are still plenty of scoring chances on the par 5s that all come in between 550-and-560 yards.

On the whole I’m going to look for bombers this week that crush in the GIR department. Accuracy and scrambling will be added bonuses but I’m not too worried about putting stats considering golfers like Bubba, Matsuyama, Stanley, Piercy, and Steele have all had success around here.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more event history and golfer quotes.

For correlated events/courses I am looking at Firestone, Doral, Farmers Insurance Open, CareerBuilder Challenge, Shriners, and Riviera.

Players to Watch

Hideki Matsuyama… Is the defending champ. He’s finished top 5 in all three attempts here. He’s positioned himself inside the top 10 in 10 of his 12 rounds here. That makes him the man to beat in my eyes. I’m really curious to see how his ownership stacks up this week now that he’s proven to be human over the past few starts.

Jordan Spieth… Skipped the event last year but a T7 in his 2015 debut. The key will be his driver. When he’s on his game, his accuracy off the tee is very underrated. On a course without many hazards directly off the fairway, he should be able to play some stress-free golf for most of the week.

Jon Rahm… So many gamers were holstering Rahm for this week, but he popped a week early. Will likely see crazy-high ownership this week, but well deserved. Early in his career his birdie-or-better numbers are right up there with guys like Rory, DJ, Matsuyama, Brooks, etc. Keep riding the train, especially in a familiar venue for the ASU product.

Phil Mickelson… I was a bit worried about the hernia surgeries ruining his early-season form, but he’s still shining. Now he tees it up at an event he’s won three times in his career. He’s been the first-round leader here twice. His course knowledge this week is going to be unmatched. The recent appearance on the Golf.com Podcast was also golden. Give it a listen if you haven’t. I’m definitely going to be trying his cinnamon bulletproof coffee.

Brendan Steele… His friends call him Mr. TPC, and he shows us why with his resume here at TPC Scottsdale. He’s 6-for-6 with three finishes of T6 or better. Is playing well early in the season and he’s got a good track record here. Perfect combo.

Scott Piercy… If Steele is Mr. TPC, then Piercy is Doctor Desert. He’s very comfortable with this style of course, posting five top 15s in eight starts here.

William McGirt… The poor man’s version of Spieth, McGirt should also be a good fit at TPC Scottsdale for the same reasons as Spieth. The resume checks out, as he’s 5-for-5 here with all five going for T31 or better.

Roberto Castro… Led the field last week in Distance from Edge of Fairways & Greens in Regulation. That’s a recipe for success and should carry-over into TPC Scottsdale where he is 2-for-2 with a pair of top 20s.

Bubba Watson… Last year he admitted he hates the layout and is just here to appease his sponsors. Most of the time when Bubba hates a layout he under-performs big time but he’s 9-for-10 here with six top 15s. The course may not have the best sightlines for him but it’s mostly wide-open and doesn’t restrict driver usage. That gives him a huge advantage over the field, and it wouldnt be surprsing to see him grab another top 15 by week’s end.

Ben Crane… He’s not a very good DraftKings scorer unless his finishing position pops. However, he loves this week’s layout. He’s been T31 or better after R3 in five of the last six WMPOs. Has three straights missed cuts to open the calendar year, so I will pass despite seeing the course history appeal.

Patrick Rodgers… Another near-miss last week, he’s still searching for that first win. TPC Scottsdale will let him utilize his best weapon plenty of times this week, the driver. If he drives is anywhere near as good as last week then another top 10 is in the cards and he’ll be right back on the doorstep of his maiden win.

Chez Reavie… Don’t get too caught up in his Arizona State/Scottsdale connection. He’s played here 8 times in his career, missed the cut five times and never finished better than T41. FADE.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open

1. Hideki Matsuyama

2. Jordan Spieth

3. Brooks Koepka

4. Bubba Watson

5. Phil Mickelson

6. Rickie Fowler

7. Jon Rahm

8. Justin Thomas

9. Matt Kuchar

10. Patrick Reed

11. Harris English

12. Brendan Steele

13. Kevin Na

14. Daniel Berger

15. Gary Woodland

16. J.B. Holmes

17. Zach Johnson

18. Keegan Bradley

19. Patrick Rodgers

20. Ryan Moore

21. Roberto Castro

22. Scott Piercy

23. Robert Streb

24. Billy Horschel

25. Webb Simpson

Qatar Masters Fantasy Preview

It was a solid week in Abu Dhabi last week and the Euro Tour stays in the Middle East for this week’s Qatar Masters.

The course is Doha GC. It’s a par 72 layout that checks in at exactly 7,400 yards. The course is standard in terms of difficulty (Field Average of 71.8 over the last 10 years).

The all-time money leaders at this event are Henrik Stenson, Branden Grace, Sergio Garcia, Alvaro Quireos, Paul Lawrie, Adam Scott, Robert Karlsson, Retief Goosen, Ernie Els, and Chris Wood. You see A LOT of length off the tee on the list, but overall it’s just pure class. It’s good sign for a course when the cream rises to the top like that.

Players to Watch

George Coetzee… Rarely finds my lineups because he’s often over-valued but his track record at Doha speaks for itself. Four straight top 15s after a T35 in his 2012 debut. Count me in this week.

Thomas Aiken … Three South Africans are inside the top 10 money list at this event, so why not Aiken? He’s a steady Eddie but the upside is there too. That is evidenced by sixth-place and fifth-place finishes on his Qatar resume.

Bernd Wiesberger … Has the highest baseline of strokes gained on the Euro Tour of anyone in the field (since 2015). Add in a pair of top 15s in his last two visits to Doha, and he’s definitely one to target.

Rafa Cabrera Bello … RCB brings the best mix of talent and course history. If I had to pick just one golfer this week, he’d be my man.

Jeunghun Wang … Just missed out on my top 25 due to lack of course history. Has top 20s in four of his last five starts international so I like the way he’s playing at the moment.

Romain Langasque … Might be the Jon Rahm of the European Tour. He’s making an immediate impact and having no troubles adjusting to new courses. Just missed out on my top 25 but he’s one to keep backing in DFS lineups.

Courses Horses … Keeping things simple, here are a list of guys that stand out in terms of past performance at the course:

George Coetzee

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Alvaro Quiros

Paul Lawrie

Thongchai Jaidee

Johan Carlsson

Thorbjorn Olesen

Chris Wood

Alejandro Canizares

Mikko Ilonen

My Top 25 for the Qatar Masters

1. Rafa Cabrera Bello

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Thomas Aiken

4. Martin Kaymer

5. George Coetzee

6. Alex Noren

7. Chris Wood

8. Graeme McDowell

9. Alejandro Canizares

10. Tommy Fleetwood

11. Thongchai Jaidee

12. Maximilian Kieffer

13. Pablo Larrazabal

14. Nicolas Colsaerts

15. Peter Hanson

16. Jaco Van Zyl

17. Dean Burmester

18. Jorge Campillo

19. Gregory Bourdy

20. Joost Luiten

21. Anthony Wall

22. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

23. Bradley Dredge

24. Ricardo Gouveia

25. Thorbjorn Olesen

Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview

The long-awaited Hudson Swafford victory has finally happened!

In hindsight, the CareerBuilder Challenge was the perfect event for it to take place. With three rounds before the cut, Swafford only needed to play near the final group in one round. That will certainly help the nerves.

I wanted to find out how long this win was in the making. I found the excerpt above from my OHL Classic preview in October of 2015. If a win was “long overdue” 15 months ago, you can imagine how long his biggest fans have been waiting for this day. Fans of Graham DeLaet and Kevin Chappell have been waiting even longer, so maybe one of them will be next. One can only hope.

Moving on… we head from one rainy event in California to another. Lucky for us, the rain is all taking place before the tournament this time. At least that is the current forecast. That should make the rough nice and lush.

The host course this week is Torrey Pines South Course, which the golfers will play three times, one time before the cut and then both weekend rounds. It’s a true bomber’s paradise when conditions are right. Last year we saw extreme conditions with winds exceeding 40 mph, leading to a massacre on Sunday/Monday. The course won’t always play that tough, but it’s never a pushover. The course record is 62 (Big Cat) so don’t expect another round of 59 this week.

There is only one par 4 under 410 yards, which will be a big change from most of the events we’ve seen in the early season. There are also zero par 5s under 550 yards on the South Course. It’s time for the big hitters to come out and play.

The fairways are some of the toughest to hit on TOUR. That is another advantage for the bombers because everyone in the field will be missing half their fairways. Meanwhile, the bombers will be 50 yards closer to the hole, thanks to their advantage in the carry-distance department.

Of course, any golfer that can show extreme accuracy off the tee can also gain an advantage. That is why golfers in the K.J. Choi mold are still able to compete here. They can play so conservatively off the tee, that they find a much larger percentage of fairways than the field. They will need to bring their A-game in terms of long-iron play, though.

Lastly, the poa annua greens can play an impact in handicapping as well. For some golfers it’s a non-factor, but others are completely lost on poa. Make sure you check the Poa Annua Anti-Specialists to potentially know who to avoid.

It’s also important to note that the golfers will all play one round at the North Course, as well. Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more details on that layout. I listed five or six articles that talk about the renovation. It’s been completely redone since last year’s tournament so it’s a bit of a wildcard in how it will really play this year. There is speculation that it will play about half-a-stroke harder than previously, but it was an easy course to begin with.

If we look at the new scorecard for the North Course, we’ll see back-to-back par 5s at holes 9 and 10, followed but a short par 4 11th. For DraftKings purposes, it could pay dividends to target golfers who start on the 1st tee @ the North Course. This could help you pick up a few extra birdie streaks on Thursday/Friday. Those streaks will be VERY TOUGH to come by on the South Course.

For correlated events/courses I am looking at Riviera, Valero Texas Open, Quail Hollow, Safeway Open, and Doral.

Players to Watch

Jason Day… A tough track that rewards distance and doesn’t punish errant drives too much? Sounds like a perfect fit for the Aussie. His track record backs that up as he posted back-to-back top 10s before winning the 2015 edition. Last year he was battling flu-like symptoms leading up to this event, so I am willing to ignore the missed cut.

Gary Woodland… If you haven’t checked out the Fantasy Golfanac for this week, Woodland is heavily featured in the quotes section. One that stood out to me is, “…you know the South Course is a big boy golf course. But the South Course is one of my favorite golf courses we play all year. Most holes go left-to-right so I’m excited about playing well today and excited about the weekend.” Woodland loves it here, posting a 7-for-7 record but just one top 10. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him add another by week’s end.

Martin Laird … Another golfer that loves the layout. Had this to say last year, “You have got to be sharp around here, you got to drive the ball well, and you have to do everything well. I don’t know, it just kind of sets up for my eye. There’s a lot of tee shots I like the look of.” Sometimes the “fits my eye” is just a cop-out answer when a golfer doesn’t know why they play well at a course. But this time, he has back-to-back top 10s to back it up.

Shane Lowry… An interesting name given his T13 and T7 here, but hasn’t teed it up since the Euro Tour finale in November. I will pass.

Nick Watney… Continues to shake off the cobwebs after he returns from injury. He posted a 10-birdie 67 in R1 last week, so I think he’s getting close. Unfortunately he recorded a double, a triple, and a quad before leaving La Quinta. Just needs to eliminate the big numbers and he’ll be right back in contention. Might as well do it on a course he knows so well, like Torrey Pines. If you’re still waiting for a Hunter Mahan revival, this would also be a good week to jump aboard. His lack of form over the past year is just too scary to trust, though.

Dustin Johnson… DJ’s track record at Torrey Pines is a bit baffling. Just one top 15 in eight tries. On paper it’s the perfect layout for the big hitter, but he can’t seem to piece together four good rounds. IF you think he’s going to be popular this week, then he’s probably a nice fade. But if you think his track record here lets him fly under the radar, then he’s probably worth a shot in GPPs. Jetlag can’t be ruled out, either, as he arrives fresh off a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi. With his ability to rack up the birdies, I think I’ll take on my chances on DK but avoid on formats like Yahoo.

Justin Rose… Speaking of poor track records at Torrey Pines, Rose is just 4-for-7 with nothing better than a T22. Perhaps Rose is committed to solving the puzzle because he’s committed for the third year in a row, despite missing the cut in each of his last two visits. Course horses are fun to back, but class is permanent. Good week to invest in Rose and hope he’s low owned? Perhaps.

Tiger Woods… You can’t talk Torrey Pines without mentioning the Big Cat. This is the infamous event where his glutes weren’t activating, leading to a WD in 2015. Before that he was 14-for-14 with SEVEN WINS at Torrey Pines. Based on his birdie barrage at the Hero World Challenge, I think he’s ready to make the cut this weekend, but a win is asking a little to much right now.

Emiliano Grillo… We faded Grillo last week because he was coming off a layoff and he didn’t have good bermuda stats. Even though the bermuda was dormant last week, the fade paid off. This week it’s time to hop back on. Grillo won the Junior Worlds at Torrey Pines in 2009 and should have plenty of good vibes around these parts. Missed the cut last year in his Farmers debut after a 5-over 77 R1.

Jhonattan Vegas… Also won the Junior Worlds at Torrey Pines and nearly turned that into a win during his 2011 Farmers debut (T3). Has two more top 20s here in five trips since the debut. Safe to say he likes Torrey Pines and it playing some of the best golf of his career over the last 12 months.

Beau Hossler… Sticking to the theme of winners at the Junior Worlds, Hossler won the 2011 edition. He’s stated he’s 100% healthy after the big injury that ended his college season. He’s relying on sponsor’s invite early in the season, trying to play his way into status. This looks like a great place to start for the Big Hoss.

Patrick Rodgers… One of the correlated courses I’m looking at is Quail Hollow which is the site of Rodgers’ best finish on TOUR (T2). He played his college golf at Stanford, so the California layout should be a bit comfy. A nice high-risk, high-reward option this week.

Aaron Wise… Keep on pumping him out in DFS lineups. Especially this week since he grew up just 90 miles from Torrey Pines. Before last week he said this in reference to the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA WEST, “I like hitting a high cut and, obviously Jack (Nicklaus) hit a high cut, so that course fits me really well, I think.” When you match this up with some previous quotes at Torrey Pines, that high cut should play nicely this week.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Farmers

1. Jason Day

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Brandt Snedeker

4. Charles Howell III

5. Jimmy Walker

6. Rickie Fowler

7. Phil Mickelson

8. Jhonattan Vegas

9. Marc Leishman

10. Harris English

11. Gary Woodland

12. Tony Finau

13. Jon Rahm

14. Daniel Berger

15. Brendan Steele

16. Keegan Bradley

17. Martin Laird

18. Justin Rose

19. Brooks Koepka

20. Emiliano Grillo

21. Paul Casey

22. J.B. Holmes

23. Charley Hoffman

24. Luke List

25. Hideki Matsuyama

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Fantasy Preview

The big hitters are out in full force as the European Tour heads to Abu Dhabi this week.

Rory backing out with a rib/back injury hurts the field a bit, but it’s still jam-packed with studs.

The course is Abu Dhabi Golf Club and it’s been used since 2006. The course is a par 72 that stretches out past 7,500 yards so it’s a long track with bermuda greens, much like the majority of Middle East and Asian events on the Euro Tour.

Players to Watch

Byeong Hun An… It continues to be like night-and-day when you see PGA TOUR An versus Euro Tour An. The Euro Tour version crushes nearly everytime out while the PGA TOUR version is still acclimating. An is looking to have a full schedule on the PGA TOUR this year, so we will get to see less and less of the Euro Tour An. That was a bunch of mumbo-jumbo but in short, pick An this week.

Branden Grace … Three top 20s here but the travel after two Hawaiian events is the only concern.

Martin Kaymer … The Course Horse. Seven top 20s including THREE WINS. The German loves to feast on his favorite tracks so I’d expect him right in the thick of things by week’s end.

Dustin Johnson … Spent all week in Aspen and now he travels across the world for a nice paycheck. How focused with he be on the actual task at hand this week? That’s yet to be determined. Obviously the top talent in the field this week, but his lack of Euro Tour play leaves a lot of question marks.

Courses Horses … Keeping things simple, here are a list of guys that stand out in terms of past performance at the course: Martin Kaymer, George Coetzee, Joost Luiten, Ian Poulter, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Peter Hanson, Henrik Stenson, Thongchai Jaidee, Jamie Donaldson, Branden Grace, Anthony Wall, Tyrrell Hatton, Pablo Larrazabal, Byeong Hun An, Thomas Pieters, Max Kieffer.

My Top 25 for the Abu Dhabi HSBC

1. Martin Kaymer

2. Byeong Hun An

3. Branden Grace

4. Thomas Pieters

5. Joost Luiten

6. Rafa Cabrera Bello

7. Dustin Johnson

8. Henrik Stenson

9. Thongchai Jaidee

10. Tyrrell Hatton

11. Bernd Wiesberger

12. Alex Noren

13. Thomas Aiken

14. Tommy Fleetwood

15. Ian Poulter

16. Ross Fisher

17. Rickie Fowler

18. Andy Sullivan

19. Chris Wood

20. Nicolas Colsaerts

21. George Coetzee

22. Danny Willett

23. Matthew Fitzpatrick

24. Peter Uihlein

25. Maximilian Kieffer

CareerBuilder Challenge Fantasy Preview

First things first, let’s have a Justin Thomas discussion. That was a monster week for Thomas and hats off to him! For me it was the opposite because I executed the full Thomas fade. Looking at his ownership numbers on The Fantasy Fanatics we can see he was owned by just 9.29% on DraftKings (average) so a lot of people had the same idea.

When you look at his ownership by Entry Amount, you’ll also notice his ownership dipped below 5% in the $300 and $1060 GPPs. The gamers that strategize and put a lot of time into this clearly thought a fade was logical, while many in the lower-dollar buyins just threw in the name they saw win recently. Obviously the fade turned out terribly this time around, but part of that fade was based on an expected ownership increase which clearly didn’t happen.

The important takeaway here is that back-to-back winners are extremely rare on the PGA TOUR, especially when the second course isn’t a great course fit. Many people are cursing the names of touts across the industry after last week and will vow to never fade a winner again. This means we should be lining up and ready to execute another full fade when the opportunity arises again.

Enough about Thomas, let’s head back to the mainland for the CareerBuilder Challenge. The event this time is a guaranteed three rounds before the cut. It’s played in a pro-am format so the trio of courses are setup on the easy side of the spectrum to avoid disasters/slow rounds from the amateurs.

The three courses are La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament at PGA WEST, and the Stadium Course at TPC WEST. Last year was the only year with these three specific courses while La Quinta has been around for a long time. Long-time readers know I’m a part of Team Course History, so I have to give the disclaimer that course history should be looked at very lightly this week. The stats are still slightly relevant since some golfers just like the region, some like playing par 72 tracks, and some just like bermuda greens. But actual course history is all over the map here given the number of different courses that have been used over the years.

If you read the quotes from the Fantasy Golfanac then you’ll know that course knowledge is certainly still applicable. Golfers like Dufner and Na both practiced at the course in the few weeks leading up to the tournament last year. Dufner ended up winning the tournament and Na finished T3. If you stalk any golfers on social media and have seen them at PGA WEST recently, it’s definitely worth noting.

For relevant stats this week the main thing popping is Birdie or Better Percentage. You have to be able to go low at a steady stream to keep up with the pace here.

As for correlated events, I am using the the Farmers, Riviera, Valero Texas Open, Sony Open, and Valspar Championship.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more course details and golfer quotes from previous years.

Players to Watch

Patrick Reed… Showed fatigue at the end of 2016 but a T6 at the SBS Tournament of Champions is a good sign for things to come. Especially since he was under the weather leading up to that event. Should be nice and rested now, making for a great play on DK. Historically he crushes on these easy pro-am type setups and this week should be no different. I would expect him to finish the week with the most birdies, or at least with two or three of the leader.

Paul Casey… Finished 2016 in great form but came out sputtering in Hawaii. He was a late entry into this week’s field which tells me he wants to regain that form (and confidence) heading into some of the bigger events. Normally I wouldn’t bother with a golfer that is 0-for-2 at an event but with only one year of history at the current rotation, he’s not too far behind the pack. A perfect bounce-back spot. Don’t be afraid to get back on the horse.

Kevin Na… I talked about the pre-tournament prep of Na and Duff Daddy last year which paid dividends. Na checks that box again this year as he posted a photo on his Instagram earlier in the month. The photo showed him at the Stadium Course getting paid out on a bet from Danny Lee and John Huh. All three of them make for very solid plays this week.

Phil Mickelson… Is attempting to return from two hernia surgeries. The initial return at this event sounded very iffy, so I’m not convince he’ll actually stay committed come Thursday. He is playing the role of tournament ambassador and Lety is a good guy. He wants to please his sponsors and play a big role in the event since he’s committed to being ambassador. I could see him going through the early-week prep of playing in the pro-am and then backing out on Wednesday. This would help him get back into the swing of pre-tournament prep work, but also not force him to compete when he’s not 100% ready. Keep your eyes peeled as the week goes on, but tread lightly given the health situation. I won’t be taking on the risk.

Ryan Palmer… Get’s good husband bonus points as he sat out the entire fall to be with his ailing wife who is going through cancer treatments. He returned last week and collapse to miss the cut on Friday and then took to Twitter to respond to the trolls. His Friday collapse last week hurt a lot of owners but he also shook off the cobwebs and should be good to go this week. He seems to thrive here regardless of the course rotation, posting top 20s in five of his last six starts here.

Bill Haas… If you look at raw birdie or better percentage then Haas is always a turd play on sites like DraftKings that value scoring so much. However, when you isolate his scoring to only similar tracks that he’ll face this week, then his DraftKings ceiling increases quite a bit. I would guess many sharp minds will fade Haas this week because of his low birdie totals and likely high ownership. I’m on the other side of that fence and think it’s okay to eat the chalk here (assuming he’s not too spendy on DK when salaries are released).

Brendan Steele… Has the local angle on his side and he can go low with the best of em’ when he gets in the zone. He’s been very inconsistent at this event but I think his upside is still there, making him a solid GPP option this week.

Lucas Glover… If we’re talking boom-or-bust then Glover has to be talked about. His irons usually go BOOM while his putting goes BUST. However, we have bermuda greens this week which means Glover is in play.

Emiliano Grillo… Speaking of bermuda, the Argentine has not taken to the surface very well. If I remember correctly, he grew up with poa on his home course and has shown much better results on poa and bentgrass earl in his career. The sample size is still small, but I it gives me an excuse to play the wait-and-see game here. I won’t be on Grillo this week.

Jon Rahm… Birdie machine and no stranger to desert golf, having played his college ball at ASU.

Francesco Molinari … The Italian version of Bill Haas, he should be good for a top 25 but he’s always just lurking and not really in true contention. He’s never held the lead after any round on the PGA TOUR.

Aaron Wise … Talent-wise he has to be in your radar. It would be wise smart not to avoid him if you’re making more than 10 lineups on DraftKings this week.

My Top 25 for the 2017 CareerBuilder Challenge

1. Patrick Reed

2. Kevin Na

3. Ryan Palmer

4. Jon Rahm

5. Paul Casey

6. Zach Johnson

7. Bill Haas

8. Keegan Bradley

9. Jason Dufner

10. Luke List

11. Brendan Steele

12. Charles Howell III

13. Charley Hoffman

14. Francesco Molinari

15. Webb Simpson

16. Danny Lee

17. Jamie Lovemark

18. Adam Hadwin

19. Cameron Tringale

20. Bryce Molder

21. Chris Kirk

22. Anirban Lahiri

23. Lucas Glover

24. Daniel Summerhays

25. John Huh

BMW SA Open Fantasy Preview

After a nice holiday break, it’s good to have some Euro Tour action back in our lives.

Unlike the name of the Tour suggests, we will continue to avoid the continent of Europe for quite some time. Instead, we get the second event this season in South Africa. The winner of the first one (Alfred Dunhill) is also the defending champion here at the South African Open. That man is Brandon Stone, but more about him in a bit.

First, let’s talk about the course. It’s Glendower GC, a lengthy 7,594 yard par-72 layout. The greens are bentgrass while the tee-to-green grass is kikuyu, like it often is in South Africa. The course has hosted this event for three seasons now, and the field average has been 72.72 over that time, so it’s definitely on the trickier side of the tracks.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… The big decision this week comes at the top of the list. Rory McIlroy is in the field as a favor to Ernie Els. If this was a major championship played on the same course against the same field, we could project a five-shot victory for Rory. Instead, we have to consider his motivation and course prep this week. He also has new equipment in the bag this week, so it may just be a testing ground for the new sticks. He is $3,000 more than the second-highest priced golfer this week (DraftKings). I really don’t think you HAVE to jam him into your lineups this week, but I wouldn’t talk you out of it, especially if you like some of the value plays near the bottom.

Thomas Aiken… 17th and 5th place here at Glendower. You are paying for consistency here with Aiken.

Andy Sullivan… Finished 12th in his Glendower debut (2014) and followed it up with a win. Missed the cut in his title defense, but it would be odd to see him miss the cut again this week. Should be one of the favorites given his success here in 2-of-3 attempts.

Brandon Stone… I felt like a fool last year when I gave him the “future superstar” tag only to see him go into a prolonged slump for the summer. It appears he is out of that slump and now back at a familiar venue. He grew up in the area and lives just 30 minutes from here. Should be a safe bet for another top 25 this week. We should start to see him more in the States this year as he tries to make the jump to the big stage.

Erik Van Rooyen… This Minnesota Gopher is a regular on the Sunshine Tour, and should be well-acclimated to the kikyuyu and bentgrass this week. Has an 18th and 33rd in two trips to Glendower, and I think we could see him take it even lower this time around.

Romain Langasque … Talent-wise, he is one to watch very closely this year. Worth a shot this week, but I can’t put him inside my top 25 since I don’t know what kind of courses, grasses, continents, etc. will fit his game.

Thomas Detry… Much like Langasque, the upside is huge, but I’m not ready to dive in yet 100%. I will sprinkle him in a few lineups for the time being while I play the wait-and-see game.

Trevor Fisher Jr. … Three top 15s in three tries here at Glendower. The South African appears comfortable on home soild.

Zander Lomard … I almost always lean course history over form so it was nice to see Lombard finally make a cut here last year. The youngster was 0-for-2 before that, but a T12 last year is promising and he’s one of the up-and-coming talents in South Africa. That makes him a great GPP play on DraftKings in my opinion but I probably won’t take the plunge in cash lineups.

My Top 25 for the 2017 SA Open

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Andy Sullivan

3. Thomas Aiken

4. Jaco Van Zyl

5. Erik Van Rooyen

6. Trevor Fisher Jr.

7. Brandon Stone

8. David Drysdale

9. Richard Bland

10. Chris Hanson

11. Carlos Pigem

12. George Coetzee

13. Retief Goosen

14. Adilson Da Silva

15. Keith Horne

16. Jean Hugo

17. Dylan Frittelli

18. Mikko Korhonen

19. Dean Burmester

20. Peter Uihlein

21. Graeme Storm

22. Chris Paisley

23. Zander Lombard

24. Nino Bertasio

25. Matthew Southgate

Sony Open in Hawaii Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR stays in Hawaii for another week but hops over to Oahu for this week’s Sony Open.

The first thing I noticed is the strength of field this week. This is the strongest field I’ve ever seen at this event. Perhaps that’s partially influenced by the new rule that forces golfers to play at least one event they haven’t over the past four years, or perhaps it’s just how the schedule lined up this year. Whatever the case is, we have a really nice lineup of golfers here in Honolulu this week.

The course is Waialae Country Club, a short and tight par 70 layout. The greens are bermudagrass and they don’t get them running too quickly. In fact, having a look at slow green specialists could prove quite valuable by week’s end.

Last week we saw a course with wide-open fairways and eight par 4s under 420 yards. Thanks to the elevation and winds, we saw some of the big bombers turn those wee par 4s into par 3s, basically.

Golfers will need to use more of their bag this week. Many of the tee shots will require some kind of shot-shaping and with only two par 4s under 410 yards, it won’t be a complete wedge-fest.

This seeps over into relevant stats, as well. Most weeks, I may find one or two stats that pop but this week it’s basically “everything this relevant” type of week. That might lead to using a stat like all-around ranking. If I’m narrowing it down, I would look to target great scramblers first.

As for correlated events, I am using the Byron Nelson, Valspar, CareerBuilder, Riviera, and Colonial. Those are my top 5 corollary events but I’m not ignoring the St. Jude Classic, Wyndham, or Honda Classic either.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more course details and golfer quotes from previous years.

Players to Watch

Charles Howell III… Has the benefit of consistent course history on his side. He is 15-for-15 at Waialae with eight top 10s. The only thing missing is a win. I wouldn’t consider him the “man to beat” this week, but his reliability at this venue makes him a great play in all formats, especially One-and-Done.

Paul Casey… If we are talking about the man to beat, I think the Englishman deserves consideration. Ended 2016 with T21 or better in eight of his last nine starts. He was circling the winner’s circle but never landed in it. He’s only made two trips to Wailalae with aT30 in his latest appearance (2015).

Hideki Matsuyama… You can’t argue that he’s the hottest golfer in the world right now. The problem this week is his course history. In four trips he’s packed his bags early all four times (missing the cut three times and MDF in 2015). He was still an amateur during his first three starts here, so that can be slightly excused. However, it’s very, very rare for a golfer to go from NEGATIVE strokes gained at a course to winning in one year. I’m not foolish enough to expect a missed cut this week, but I would be very shocked if he continues his incredible form and finds another podium finish. If I had to bucket his likely finishing position, I would put 10th to 20th place as the likely landing spot this week.

Justin Thomas… While I’m not foolish enough to fully fade Matsuyama, I will be a fool and get behind a full fade of Thomas this week. In fact, he missed the cut here last year so it wouldn’t be that outrageous to see another one. On the flip side, he did finish T6 in his 2015 debut here. Plus, there is the fact that he’s one of the best DraftKings scorers on TOUR. And he’s fun to watch. I’m not completely decided on whether I will fully fade Thomas this week or just lower my exposure, but my early thought is that a let-down week may be on the horizon. This week’s layout only has two par 5s, doesn’t allow him to grip-it and rip-it as much as last week, and he’s traditionally a better putter on faster greens even though he just won last week on slow greens. Coming fresh off a victory, we should see an increase in exposure, which is yet another reason we should be okay with a fade here.

Jimmy Walker… Some people laugh at the Hawaiian narrative but it continues to hold true. Keep playing him in Hawaii and continue to profit.

Tony Finau… Last week’s greens were bermuda but the correlation between bermuda performance and TOC finishes checked in very low. This week, the type of grass is more relevant, so that gives us reason to fade Finau as he’s typically much, much worse on bermuda.

Zac Blair… The short-game extraordinaire has four top 10s on TOUR, and two of them have come here at Waialae. The downside with ZB is that his game is not fantasy friendly when he brings his ‘B’ game or worse. This is a week where we can take a few shots on Blair, though.

John Peterson… Sticking with boom-or-bust options, JP looks like a great course fit this week. He’s a ball-striking machine and the slower greens should only help him. He’s also on the record for loving him some windy conditions, which is always in the cards in Hawaii. Peterson has been inside the Top 20 thru 54 holes on nine occasions. Two of those have come here at Waialae CC. In my Projected Earnings post I called for a Peterson breakout in 2017, and this is a great spot to start that big season. Also has #HoneymoonSwag on his side.

Chris Kirk… Has a pair of top 5s at the Sony Open and was 5-for-5 here before last year’s MC. Last year he will still trying to play his way back into form after suffering from a wrist injury the year before. I will give him a pass for that MC, and think he makes for a very good play this week as some may remember the MC he provided in his latest start as well (RSM Classic). Before that he opened the season with top 10s in 3-of-4 events.

Harris English… Another Georgia Bulldog who loves the layout this week. Had this to say in 2015, “Playing at Waialae is one of my favorite golf courses. It kind of reminds me of growing up in South Georgia, playing on Bermudagrass, firm and fast greens.” That happened to come during the 2015 edition where the greens were faster than they typically are here. He went on to finish T3 that week, but he also has two other top 10s here when the greens played slower. That tells us the green speeds aren’t actually that important to his success here but the fact that he calls it one of his favorite courses is definitely promising.

Cheng Tsung Pan … Tremendous short game and accurate off the tee, not unlike Zac Blair who I just mentioned a moment ago. As a side note, if you took a trip from the University of Washington (where he attended college) to Taiwan then Honolulu would be nearly the exact midpoint in terms of miles between the flight. Okay, that actually means absolutely zero here but he should be a nice fit for Waialae as me makes his debut.

My Top 25 for the 2017 Sony Open

1. Paul Casey

2. Harris English

3. Charles Howell III

4. Jordan Spieth

5. Jimmy Walker

6. Justin Rose

7. Chris Kirk

8. Zach Johnson

9. Kevin Na

10. Jason Dufner

11. Hideki Matsuyama

12. Gary Woodland

13. Ryan Palmer

14. Bill Haas

15. Daniel Berger

16. Brandt Snedeker

17. Cheng Tsung Pan

18. Russell Knox

19. Daniel Summerhays

20. Marc Leishman

21. Billy Horschel

22. Keegan Bradley

23. Webb Simpson

24. Zac Blair

25. Kevin Kisner

SBS Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview

The biggest deal about winning a tournament on the PGA TOUR is the reward of getting invited to Augusta National for The Masters. Slightly (okay, quite a bit) lower down the chain is getting invited to Maui for the Tournament of Champions.

Just looking at the TOC field each year, you’ll generally find about five golfers who decide to skip the event for scheduling reasons. Who would want to go to Hawaii for a nice vacation just after the holidays to receive a guaranteed paycheck, right?

The golfers that did end up committing will take on Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course. It’s an unorthodox challenge as it’s a par 73 course, the only one on TOUR. The fairways are massive here which turns it into a second-shot course. Because of all the undulations and elevation changes, there aren’t a lot of long-iron shots either. That turns this into a wedge and short-game competition most years.

Geoff Ogilvy is a two-time winner here and had this to say about his success here: “I do well with a wedge and it’s a real wedge-based course. The greens putt like Melbourne greens with big sweeping putts, 30-foot putts that break 12 feet.”

Many golfers surprisingly compare it to Augusta since you can grip-it and rip-it off the tee without fear of danger if you go slightly off line, plenty of side-hill lies, and big swooping breaks on the greens. Brooks Koepka had this to say last year, “You’re not going to find a slopier golf course than this. There’s so many awkward little lies, ball above your feet, below your feet and then downhill and then you’re hitting up the hill. Things like that you just don’t find anywhere besides maybe here and Augusta.”

When you look at the Augusta aficionado (Jordan Spieth) and see he’s finished 2nd and 1st in two tries here…it checks out.

Check out the for more quotes and angles on Kapalua Resort.

Stat-wise, I will stick to the the short-game stats this week. I’m going to look at scrambling, putting, and birdie-or-better percentage. BoB% is more important in formats like DraftKings that heavily weight birdies and eagles.

Sticking to DraftKings strategy, it’s important to remember that with just 32 golfers in the field you will likely need the winner on your team this week. That also means duplicate lineups will be showing up left and right, so leaving a good chunk of change leftover is a great idea this week, but even then you may run into duplicates.

Browsing for correlated courses, I’m going to have a look at Augusta National, Pebble Beach, Golf Club of Houston, Riviera CC, and Torrey Pines.

Players to Watch

Jordan Spieth… Already mentioned the connection to Augusta National so it makes perfect sense that Spieth shines here on Maui. In two trips he’s finished no worse than solo second. He’s the man to beat in my book.

Patrick Reed… The other half of the lethal Ryder Cup duo… Reed is no slouch here at Kapalua, either. He finished T16 in his 2014 debut but has similar results to Spieth in his other two appearances (1st and 2nd-place finishes). If scrambling is the name of the game here then Reed is certainly the man you want on your team.

Hideki Matsuyama… Enters with wins in four of his last five starts, internationally. The other finish was a measly runner-up at the CIMB Classic. Long-term, however, the WGC-HSBC Champions win is the only one of those four that we are going to look back and cite with any real significance. Also has a T3 in his only appearance at The Plantation Course (2015). Has to be considered one of the favorites this week due to form and past success. However, if we are talking DraftKings strategy, he might be one to swerve due to increased popularity. A lot can happen to a golf swing following a break of a few weeks, so if he loses some of that killer form, he may become an over-owned DraftKings play that finishes middle of the pack. Certainly a golfer you want to examine closely this week.

Jimmy Walker… Has six wins in his career and four of them came on greens where the stimp was set to 11 feet or slower. It goes hand-in-hand with his success on coastal tracks because these types of courses are often forced to have slower greens or else windy conditions will wreck havoc on the putting surfaces. Does Walker shine because of his great wind game or great ability to read slow, big-swooping putts? Either way, he’s a great fit for Kapalua so you have to give him a look.

Jason Dufner… If this turns into a wedge competition, Dufner can hang with the best of them. When he’s locked in with the wedges and short irons, it’s a thing of beauty. It’s a somewhat big ‘if’ but the upside is there this week.

Tony Finau… If we’re playing the local angle, Finau might come the closest. He’s not from Hawaii or anything like that, but with parents of Tongan and Samoan descent, I’m guessing Finau has visited the islands more than his fair share and should feel right at home with the Hawaiian culture around him this week. Maybe he’ll even bust out his old fire knives and join in on the festivities. Oh, it also helps his cause that he’s good at golf and should feast on the par 5s.

Mackenzie Hughes… In the intro I talked about how putting can be crucial here at Kapalua. Hughes is the perfect example of a boom-or-bust play this week. His putter can really catch fire (like it did at The RSM Classic). His long game is nothing to write home about, making him a candidate for dead last this week but the flat stick is the wildcard. Other with boom-or-bust potential that will need a great week putting include: Cody Gribble, Aaron Baddeley, Fabian Gomez, Brandt Snedeker.

My Top 32 for the 2017 Tourney of Champions

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Patrick Reed

4. Hideki Matsuyama

5. Jason Day

6. Jimmy Walker

7. Brandt Snedeker

8. Bubba Watson

9. Jason Dufner

10. Justin Thomas

11. Russell Knox

12. Tony Finau

13. Ryan Moore

14. Daniel Berger

15. Jhonattan Vegas

16. Branden Grace

17. Fabian Gomez

18. Charley Hoffman

19. William McGirt

20. Brendan Steele

21. Rod Pampling

22. Pat Perez

23. Vaughn Taylor

24. Jim Herman

25. James Hahn

26. Aaron Baddeley

27. Si Woo Kim

28. Brian Stuard

29. Billy Hurley III

30. Cody Gribble

31. Mackenzie Hughes

32. Greg Chalmers

Featured Image courtesy of Sportsunbiased.com

2017 Projected PGA TOUR Earnings

With the PGA TOUR taking a break over the holidays, we have to find ways to stay active. For me, I decided to project the earnings for the upcoming calendar year.

This is the second time I’ve done this, so check out the 2016 edition if you want to see how those projections fared.

The same logic and rules will be applied. These projections are for the 2017 portion of the 2016-17 season only, as many gamers are just gearing up for their season-long drafts.

Many of the Breakout candidates found the winner’s circle last year (Matsuyama, J Thomas, Steele, McGirt, Si Woo Kim) while other were in contention quite often but failed to secure a win (Chappell, Kokrak, Brooks). Looking at the Bounceback Candidates, 2-of-the-5 ended up returning to the winner’s circle.

On the flip side, Hunter Mahan was a Bounceback Candidate, and he did exactly the opposite. He continued his slide, leaving an easy opportunity for a bounceback season in 2017. Some failed breakout candidates included Carlos Ortiz, Tom Hoge, Cameron Smith, Luke Guthrie, Cameron Tringale, and Zac Blair. Only one of these golfers remain on my list of potential breakouts in 2017.

The hardest part of this exercise is projecting the amount of starts for the upcoming season. If you think a golfer will have 25 starts but I only projected them for 18 for example, feel free to divide their $/event and then multiple it how many starts you think they will have.

The Euro Tour stars are also incredibly tough to project, start-wise. Golfers like Soren Kjeldsen, Danny Willett, Byeong Hun An, etc. have the ability to play full PGA TOUR schedules, but they also have allegiance to the Euro Tour, which often limits the number of starts they end up making stateside. Proceed with caution when drafting these Euro Tour stars in your season-long leagues.

I’ve listed the Top 150 below. Some have full status, some have conditional status, while some will only show up for WGCs and majors. Check out the Google Doc version for 225 golfers ranked. Let me know if I missed any notables, as I can add them on rather easy.

The Top 25

Jason Day — $5544000 — 18 starts

Rory McIlroy — $5336000 — 17 starts

Jordan Spieth — $4400000 — 23 starts

Dustin Johnson — $3800000 — 21 starts

Hideki Matsuyama — $3420000 — 23 starts

Brooks Koepka — $2835000 — 21 starts

Justin Rose — $2835000 — 18 starts

Daniel Berger — $2772000 — 24 starts

Rickie Fowler — $2707500 — 22 starts

Adam Scott — $2520000 — 17 starts

Jon Rahm — $2422500 — 21 starts — Breakout Candidate

Bubba Watson — $2422500 — 19 starts

Matt Kuchar — $2394000 — 23 starts

Paul Casey — $2394000 — 22 starts

Patrick Reed — $2392000 — 25 starts

Henrik Stenson — $2340000 — 15 starts

Jim Furyk — $2280000 — 18 starts

Charl Schwartzel — $1989000 — 19 starts

Sergio Garcia — $1950000 — 15 starts

Brandt Snedeker — $1811250 — 24 starts

Phil Mickelson — $1768000 — 18 starts

Justin Thomas — $1732500 — 25 starts

Zach Johnson — $1732500 — 23 starts

Ryan Palmer — $1732500 — 22 starts

Emiliano Grillo — $1664000 — 20 starts

Notes: At the top of the list we have Jason Day, who is only constrained by his health. Jon Rahm is an obvious breakout candidate here. In 15 career starts he’s secured nine top 25s, four of those being top 10s, while two of them were podium finishes. The entire Top 5 is almost interchangeable based on how lucky they get this season. However, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy stand out slightly above the crowd in terms of long-term expected outputs.

Golfers like Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia have been staples among the top tier for years now. With their starts limited to around 15 per year, though, their output could fall rather quickly if have miss a few starts due to injury or just have a down year.

The Top 50

Russell Knox — $1653750 — 24 starts

J.B. Holmes — $1617000 — 23 starts

Chris Kirk — $1575000 — 25 starts

Kevin Na — $1575000 — 24 starts

Bill Haas — $1575000 — 23 starts

Gary Woodland — $1575000 — 23 starts

Jimmy Walker — $1543500 — 23 starts

Marc Leishman — $1543500 — 23 starts

Keegan Bradley — $1470000 — 24 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Ryan Moore — $1470000 — 23 starts

Harris English — $1433250 — 25 starts

Billy Horschel — $1433250 — 24 starts

Kevin Chappell — $1433250 — 24 starts

Charley Hoffman — $1386000 — 24 starts

Brendan Steele — $1365000 — 23 starts

William McGirt — $1328250 — 25 starts

Jason Dufner — $1323000 — 21 starts

Si Woo Kim — $1270500 — 26 starts

Russell Henley — $1260000 — 24 starts

Louis Oosthuizen — $1260000 — 17 starts

Charles Howell III — $1212750 — 26 starts

Tony Finau — $1210000 — 26 starts

Kevin Kisner — $1210000 — 25 starts

Daniel Summerhays — $1210000 — 25 starts

Tiger Woods — $1181250 — 15 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Notes: Coming in at #50 exactly, we have THEE TIGER WOODS. I am very bullish on his return this time around, but this projection does not completely reflect that. I wanted to be cautiously optimistic here, but I will say that I think he eclipses this projection of $1.18 million.

Kevin Chappell puts up monster earnings last season but he remains winless. That could definitely change this year.

Keegan Bradley was showing signs of life toward the end of 2016, so his bounce-back season could certainly be coming in 2017.

The Top 75

Shane Lowry — $1180250 — 16 starts

Branden Grace — $1176000 — 18 starts

Blayne Barber — $1155000 — 24 starts — Breakout Candidate

Roberto Castro — $1155000 — 24 starts

Webb Simpson — $1134000 — 22 starts

Francesco Molinari — $1102500 — 16 starts

Jason Kokrak — $1100000 — 25 starts — Breakout Candidate

Pat Perez — $1100000 — 23 starts

Hudson Swafford — $1089000 — 26 starts

Jamie Lovemark — $1071000 — 22 starts — Breakout Candidate

Patrick Rodgers — $1039500 — 23 starts — Breakout Candidate

Danny Lee — $1039500 — 26 starts

John Senden — $1039500 — 24 starts

Steve Stricker — $1029000 — 14 starts

Cameron Tringale — $990000 — 25 starts — Bounceback Candidate

David Lingmerth — $990000 — 24 starts

Scott Piercy — $990000 — 23 starts

Luke Donald — $990000 — 20 starts

Brian Harman — $924000 — 26 starts

David Hearn — $924000 — 26 starts

Grayson Murray — $924000 — 24 starts — Breakout Candidate

Freddie Jacobson — $885500 — 23 starts

Andrew Johnston — $882000 — 15 starts

Robert Streb — $880000 — 24 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Harold Varner III — $880000 — 24 starts

Notes: Branden Grace has the potential to be a lot higher on this list, but it’s all about how much he elects to play stateside versus Europe. Blayne Barber is someone who entered his professional career with a lot of pedigree. He’s not a golfer you want to target every week, but he has the ability to rip apart shorter courses. With a little experience now under his belt, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him rip off five or so top 10s this season and potentially find the winner’s circle.

Roberto Castro didn’t earn the breakout tag, since he’s coming off his best season as a pro. However, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see him finally find a win which would certainly boost his 2017 earnings.

Jason Kokrak has 14 top 10s in 134 career starts. If he finally finds crosses the finish line, his 2017 earnings could see a huge boost. Cameron Tringale pocketed just 1,064,066 for the entire 2015-16 season. That was his second-lowest total since 2011. The projection above ($990K) is likely his floor for 2017 as he should bounceback.

In 87 Web.com Tour starts, Jamie Lovemark has a top-25 rate over 25%. That finally translated to the big stage as he found a five-pack of top 10s last year. He gets the breakout label for 2017 because he still has the potential to improve upon that.

Patrick Rodgers is another with massive pedigree. He flashed a bit of that potential last year, recording eight top 25s in 28 starts. His potential gives him a decent chance of eclipsing $2 million in 2017 alone, likely making this projection look rather low by year’s end.

The Top 100

Martin Laird — $880000 — 23 starts

Graeme McDowell — $841500 — 20 starts

Luke List — $836000 — 24 starts — Breakout Candidate

Graham DeLaet — $836000 — 22 starts

Tyrrell Hatton — $832000 — 8 starts

Soren Kjeldsen — $819000 — 15 starts

Colt Knost — $808500 — 24 starts

Shawn Stefani — $808500 — 24 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Jerry Kelly — $808500 — 23 starts

Scott Brown — $792000 — 26 starts

Bryson DeChambeau — $792000 — 22 starts

Smylie Kaufman — $792000 — 21 starts

Bud Cauley — $792000 — 20 starts — Breakout Candidate

Retief Goosen — $759000 — 23 starts

Cheng Tsung Pan — $748000 — 23 starts — Breakout Candidate

Cameron Smith — $748000 — 21 starts — Breakout Candidate

Wesley Bryan — $748000 — 21 starts — Breakout Candidate

Anirban Lahiri — $748000 — 20 starts

Chez Reavie — $742500 — 19 starts

Chad Campbell — $731500 — 24 starts

Adam Hadwin — $731500 — 24 starts — Breakout Candidate

Kevin Streelman — $731500 — 24 starts

Sean O’Hair — $726000 — 24 starts

Patton Kizzire — $704000 — 20 starts

Kyle Reifers — $693000 — 26 starts

Notes: I mentioned how tough starts are to project for International golfers, and Tyrrell Hatton is a great example. At World No. 24, he’ll have plenty of opportunity in WGCs and Majors, but will he decide to pursue golf in the U.S. if he earns the status? That’s a big question mark but the 25-year-old has a ton of upside in 2017. If you’re looking at $ earned per event, Hatton should be elite. At the same time, he’ll only appear in the strongest fields so it may mean you have to bench a stud in order to fit him in your lineup.

Cameron Smith was on the breakout list last year, but he struggled to play his best golf for most of the year. He breezed through the Web.com Tour Finals to earn back his PGA TOUR card and is still just 23 years old.

Bud Cauley has struggled with injuries at times, but still owns 27 top 25s in 98 career starts (28%). The 26-year-old has full status again on the main stage which should mean 5-to-10 top 25s are in the works again.

Adam Hadwin improved greatly last year statistically but his money earned per event did not really increase as much. This projection of $731.5K is on the really conservative side. He could easily earn three times that amount and it wouldn’t be too shocking.

The Top 125

James Hahn — $693000 — 24 starts

Nick Watney — $693000 — 23 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Byeong Hun An — $693000 — 17 starts — Breakout Candidate

Zac Blair — $682500 — 26 starts

Michael Kim — $682500 — 25 starts

Kyle Stanley — $682500 — 25 starts

Billy Hurley III — $682500 — 24 starts

Danny Willett — $661500 — 10 starts

Jim Herman — $660000 — 24 starts

Ben Martin — $660000 — 24 starts

Derek Fathauer — $660000 — 24 starts

Aaron Baddeley — $660000 — 23 starts

Jon Curran — $650000 — 25 starts

John Huh — $650000 — 25 starts

Bryce Molder — $650000 — 24 starts

Lucas Glover — $650000 — 24 starts

Fabian Gomez — $630000 — 24 starts

Rafa Cabrera Bello — $630000 — 10 starts

Jhonattan Vegas — $627000 — 24 starts

Ricky Barnes — $627000 — 24 starts

Seung-Yul Noh — $627000 — 24 starts

Johnson Wagner — $627000 — 23 starts

Seamus Power — $617500 — 24 starts

Stewart Cink — $616000 — 20 starts

Andrew Loupe — $605000 — 22 starts

Notes: Health is the big question mark for Nick Watney, but otherwise he’s in a great position to get back on track in 2017. The number of starts will be the wildcard for Byeong Hun An. At 45th in the World Rankings, he should crack plenty of strong-field events which immediately puts him on the radar in terms of $ earned per start. The same goes for Rafa Cabrera Bello. He’s coming off his best year as a professional, so he may be overpriced in your league. The number of starts he will make stateside is also in question, which is why I have his projection rather pessimistic.

The Top 150

Hunter Mahan — $600000 — 24 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Spencer Levin — $600000 — 26 starts

Brett Stegmaier — $600000 — 25 starts

Jonas Blixt — $600000 — 24 starts

Rory Sabbatini — $600000 — 23 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Martin Flores — $594000 — 23 starts

K.J. Choi — $594000 — 21 starts

David Toms — $594000 — 20 starts

Will Wilcox — $594000 — 18 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Jason Bohn — $585000 — 23 starts — Bounceback Candidate

Matthew Fitzpatrick — $577500 — 10 starts

Thomas Pieters — $577500 — 10 starts

Xander Schauffele — $570000 — 24 starts

Morgan Hoffmann — $570000 — 24 starts

Ben Crane — $570000 — 23 starts

Stuart Appleby — $570000 — 22 starts

Alex Cejka — $561000 — 21 starts

John Peterson — $555000 — 23 starts — Breakout Candidate

Brian Stuard — $550000 — 25 starts

Sung Kang — $550000 — 25 starts

Troy Merritt — $550000 — 24 starts

Whee Kim — $550000 — 23 starts

Bronson Burgoon — $550000 — 20 starts

Ryo Ishikawa — $528000 — 20 starts

Matt Jones — $528000 — 15 starts

Notes: Matthew Fitzpatrick and Thomas Pieters would both have the breakout label attached if we knew they had 15 starts coming there way.

John Peterson is returning from injury with 21 available starts remaining on his medical. His ball-striking remains top 50 on TOUR so one or two good weeks with the flat stick is all it will take for Peterson to crack the $1 million mark in a single season for the first time. It could definitely happen.

Hunter Mahan is coming off his worst season on the PGA TOUR, but finished top 50 in the FedExCup standings each of the nine years prior. He can’t go full Brendon Todd and continue sliding this year, can he?

While you don’t have to like the guy (most don’t), you can’t deny Rory Sabbatini’s success over the last 15 years or so. In 18 seasons he’s finished above 50% in terms of cuts made in 15 of those seasons. Last year was not one of those. It’s possible we are seeing age kick in, but there is also a very good chance last year was just a minor hiccup which would allow you to scoop him up in a season-long league for really cheap.

Matt Jones doesn’t have his TOUR card (shockingly/sadly finished just outside the bubble in FEC and the money list). However, he still has the talent to make waves in limited starts.

Notables Outside The Top 150

Ollie Schniederjans… Would have him as a potential breakout candidate based on what we saw two years ago. However, he’s been less-than-impressive in terms of consistency. If he puts it all together he had the talent to end up inside the top 50 by year’s end, but could also be back on the Web.com Tour next year if he can’t find some consistency.

J.T. Poston… Posted eight top 25s in 18 starts on the Web.com Tour last year. I’m not guaranteeing a big year, but I’m certainly optimistic about his future.

Martin Kaymer… Lost his TOUR status after failing to play enough events. Clearly he’s not too concerned about playing in the states. That means we will only see him in WGCs (maybe) and majors, which puts a big hammer on his reliability and upside.

Trey Mullinax… Comes with a lot of pedigree but it took him two years on the Web.com Tour to earn his TOUR card. That puts him in the wait-and-see bucket for me.

Brandon Hagy… The BIGGG bomber is going to be really fun to watch, but I’m not ready to consider him a serious contender yet.

Aaron Wise… Certainly has all the skills to succeed as soon as this year. The problem is status and available starts.

Final Recap

Breakout Candidates (15):

Jon Rahm

Blayne Barber

Jason Kokrak

Jamie Lovemark

Patrick Rodgers

Grayson Murray

Luke List

Bud Cauley

Cheng Tsung Pan

Cameron Smith

Wesley Bryan

Adam Hadwin

Byeong Hun An

John Peterson

Aaron Wise (NO STATUS)

Bounceback Candidates (10):

Keegan Bradley

Tiger Woods

Cameron Tringale

Robert Streb

Shawn Stefani

Nick Watney

Hunter Mahan

Rory Sabbatini

Will Wilcox

Jason Bohn