Josh Culp's Blog, page 26

PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

In true week-after-major fashion, we found ourselves with a strange leaderboard last week at Glen Abbey Golf Club.

The top 10 at last week’s RBC Canadian Open included Martin Laird, Ricky Barnes, Steve Wheatcroft, Alex Cejka, Ben Crane, Geoff Ogilvy, and amateur Jared du Toit. Talk about star-studded! And we can’t forget about the winner, Jhonny Vegas. A lot of the golfers I expected to show up like Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Bud Cauley, etc. really just fizzled out to the middle of the pack.

This week I think we see a much more predictable leaderboard at Baltusrol Golf Club. Unlike last week, there are only two par 5s on the course, they aren’t auto-birdies like last week and eagles will be trimmed by about 50, week-over-week. When we head to majors, we see tougher tracks with conditions that bring out the cream of the crop. With narrow fairways, five inch rough, and extremely undulated greens, tee-to-green play and course management are both vital this week. Great putters can succeed as well, but they will lose that putting advantage if they are hitting into the wrong section of the greens.

Adding to that thought, Geoff Ogilvy said the following in 2005 when asked why he does so well on this type of setup, “It’s not a putting contest. It’s a contest from tee to green and everything is tested today equally. A regular tournament when the greens are soft, guys are shooting 25 under par and it’s really whoever putts best wins.”

With Baltusrol playing over 7,400 yards and only being a par 70, this is a longgg track. Driving distance is certainly an advantage this week. I will be looking for golfers that can really move it off the tee, but also keeping an eye on distance from edge of the fairway because I want my golfers to be hitting out of the short stuff or first cut as much as possible.

Phil Mickelson supports that theory by saying this after his 2005 victory here, “I think that as I look back on the 72 holes, the biggest miss that I had was just off the fairway. I had one time where I hit a tree limb early and had to play off another fairway. For the most part my misses were within three or four yards of the fairway; it was never really a big miss. That led to keeping the score in check, and I think that that was probably the biggest factor.”

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course setup and golfer quotes from recent years at Glen Abbey.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy… Looking at the two key stats for me this week, McIlroy certainly has the distance and if we’re looking just at the big four, I have him graded out as 2nd-best in terms of distance from the edge of the fairway. His play off the tee gives him a huge leg up on the field, and his approach play usually comes to play as well. As long as he can eliminate or minimize the big numbers, he should be right in the mix come Sunday.

Henrik Stenson… Looks like a knockout play again. The only possible issue is a winner’s hangover after snagging his first major just two weeks ago. On the flip side, he could take it as a relief and continue to rattle off the high finishes. I’m going to jump back on the train, because I think he’s mentally strong.

Phil Mickelson… Much like Stenson, the mental side of the game will be in question this week after grinding through one of the greatest final-rounds against Stenson. He should rack up the birdies like always, but I’m not expecting a win or even top 5. I’m expecting a few blow-up holes and a finish in the 11-to-25 range.

Dustin Johnson and Jason Day… We can’t really look back on history for this one, but it’s a bit concerning that they’ve traveled from Scotland to Ontario and now to New Jersey all within three weeks. Obviously they are playing the best golf of anyone in the world this year, so the fatigue factor is only something to consider if you’re looking to get ultra-picky and look for potential high-end fades.

Adam Scott… When tee-to-green play is at a premium, Scott has to jump toward the top of our lists.

Matt Kuchar… He finds the fairway better than most in the field and his long-iron play is fantastic. Those two sort of go hand-in-hand here, since Kuchar can attack due to better positioning off the tee. He rarely plays great at The Open, so I’m willing to forgive his last start. I think he’s good to go this week.

Kevin Chappell… Chap steps his game up for the big events and it wasn’t so long ago that he was in 2015-Kisner form…just counting down the weeks until the inevitable win. His top-tier approach play is why we get on board, here.

Emiliano Grillo… The Argentine didn’t have the best scoring week at Glen Abbey, but his precision off the tee keeps him around most weeks. Playing from the short stuff all week, Grillo should be able to attack the tough greens better than most.

Danny Willett… He’s gone cold since the big Masters victory, but looking at his strokes gained numbers over his last seven starts since the Masters, his form is actually better than it looks based on raw missed cut & finishing position numbers. He’s officially off the radar again, but I think he sets up nicely for Baltusrol this week.

Lee Westwood… He’s a machine in major championships. Hard to argue with his consistent track record over the years. Same goes for Sergio.

Rafa Cabrera Bello… His 2016 form is top notch. He shoots arrows off the tee, which leaves him in position to attack greens, much like a Grillo or Stenson. In facct, that’s not a terrible way to start a DraftKings squad this week.

Gary Woodland… Posted a T12 at The Open, tying his career-best in a major. Playing some great golf since re-uniting with Butch, and the length of Baltusrol will cater to Woodland’s length. Not a golfer you need to lead with, but a very nice sleeper to take a shot on.

Brandt Snedeker… Fresh off a T5 and actually steps his game up on longer courses. He can grind out long par 4s with the best of em!

PGA Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! It should go live this week early Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 PGA Championship

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Henrik Stenson

3. Jason Day

4. Dustin Johnson

5. Bubba Watson

6. Matt Kuchar

7. Jordan Spieth

8. Adam Scott

9. Danny Willett

10. Sergio Garcia

11. Rickie Fowler

12. Charl Schwartzel

13. Justin Rose

14. Kevin Chappell

15. Emiliano Grillo

16. Phil Mickelson

17. Gary Woodland

18. Brandt Snedeker

19. Rafa Cabrera Bello

20. Lee Westwood

21. Tony Finau

22. Patrick Reed

23. Ryan Palmer

24. Branden Grace

25. John Senden

RBC Canadian Open Fantasy Preview

After an epic Sunday Showdown with Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson, we now head to Canada for a cool-down week. We’ll ramp it straight back next week as the PGA Championship is only 10 days away. Thanks, Rio!

The course this week, Glen Abbey Golf Club, is a par 72 track which measures around 7,250 yards. It’s the first solo-design by Jack Nicklaus but it won’t be around for much longer. Within 5-to-10 years, the course is scheduled to be turned into a residential community. Maybe this is just savvy business stuff, hoping that someone jumps in to “save the historic Glen Abbey” by paying top dollar.

“Our intention would be to build a pretty high-end, luxury community, with commercial office space and dining and all kinds of things,” he said. “That would be a lot more attractive than a few hundred people playing golf.” … I don’t know all the details, but that sounds pretty sad.

Anyways, this week is highlighted by the sponsor, RBC. Because of their relationship with so many of the top golfers (Team RBC), they are able to get a pretty decent field, despite the golfers having to travel straight from The Open.

This par 72 is has become a nice relaxing jaunt, recently. The lead agronomist said the days of six inch rough are over, as the TOUR suggests that leads to “boring golf”. Back in 2004, for example, it played as the fourth-hardest course on TOUR, relative-to-par. Prior to that, it was generally inside the top 15 hardest on an annual basis. The four most recent additions have all played on the easy side of the spectrum, so we should expect more of that. The members play the course with a stimp around 10 feet and 2-inch rough. The TOUR now plays it with a stimp around 12 and 3-inch rough.

The biggest reason this course is easy is due to the reachable par 5s. In 2013 Kyle Stanley said “most of these par 5s are really par 4s to be honest with you” and Jason Day was quoted saying “I think you can turn those par 5s into par 4s and make it a par 70 and make it a very difficult golf course.” They would need to move the tee boxes up just a bit but the numbers back this up. Over the last four editions, there have been 261 eagles made at Glen Abbey (65 per year). It’s going to be a scoring fiesta this week, especially on DraftKings where eagles are so valuable.

The last thing to note is the course changes since last year. In 2014 the course got hit with some ice damage and eight greens were affected. Originally poa annua greens, they put in temporary bentgrass greens on those ice damaged holes and played with 10 poa/8 bentgrass greens or the 2015 edition. Since last year, they’ve converted all the greens to T1 Creeping Bentgrass so they we have some more baby grass on our hands.

We’ve seen that a lot this year, but it’s mainly been the trendy TifEagle Bermuda, so it will be worth keeping an eye out for golfer quotes to see if they mention how the young greens are responding. In addition, they also replaced all the bunkers, putting in a new variety of sand. Note: These were all PLANNED changes, and I’m assuming they went through with them last fall/winter. It’s possible the plans to convert this land into a residential community could have also changed these plans with the golf course. I will keep my eye out for confirmation.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course setup and golfer quotes from recent years at Glen Abbey.

Players to Watch

Emiliano Grillo… The Argentine is scorching with finishes of four finishes inside the top 15 over his last five starts, internationally. He also fired an 8-under 64 to open his week at Glen Abbey last year. The fairways are tough-to-hit here at Glen Abbey so you want to be extremely long or extremely accurate. Grillo is the latter. There is nothing to suggest a possible letdown, except for jet lag, maybe. Will likely be a veeeery popular pick this week, unless DraftKings pricing him through the roof, which I kind of hope they do.

Tony Finau… This week passes the Finau Filter… Bentgrass greens? Yes… Play him.

Dustin Johnson and Jason Day… The cream of the crop this week. No explanation needed for either of these guys, because their talents trumps any kind of course fit requirements. Matt Kuchar could also be included in this tier, but he’s a notch below DJ and JD.

Adam Hadwin… He’s Canadian and loves playing on bentgrass. The two are likely pretty correlated, actually, since its going to be the most common grass type up here in Canada.

Bud Cauley… I said never again after his WD on the first tee at the Quicken Loans, but I’m easily suckered back in. His career top-25 rate is extremely high and it even gets a nice boost when he heads to bentgrass courses. A nice boom-or-bust sleeper this week.

Jon Rahm… For the first time this season his birdie-or-better percentage was worse than the field, at last week’s Open. Despite the slight hiccup, I’m going to continue to ride this stallion as he plays for his TOUR status. The real deal who can light it up in bunches.

Bryson DeChambeau… Speaking of young talent, he’s making his 11th start of the year this week, and he’s only allowed 12 as a Non-Member trying to earn his card. His max sponsorship invites won’t even be an issue since he cracked enough fields without invites needed. Currently 146 FedExCup points shy of earning Special Temporary Membership. He likely needs a top-3 finish in one of his last two starts, or a pair of top 10s could get the job done. If you want to play the motivation or desperation card, DeCham-wow might be your guy.

Graham DeLaet… The now-beardless Canuck enters off a T8 at the Barbasol. It would be sad if he finally won just a few weeks after shaving his beard. This whole time it was just his giant beard getting in the way of his chipping and putting!?

Kyle Reifers… Give him a par 72 and he’ll find a way to score. Since the start of 2014, he’s posted top 25s in 8-of-24 starts played on par 72s. That 33%-rate is 16th best in the field.

Chez Reavie… He loves a good challenge off the tee. Some of his best results over the past few seasons have come on courses where the field has a tough time hitting fairways. To back it up, he also won here in 2008, so he’s definitely worth a look.

Harold Varner III… Despite his decent finish last week, he managed to circle a whopping 4 birdies! This week we have four reachable par 5s, I think that should be way more up his alley, and we could see the fantasy-friendly HV3 return.

Tom Hoge… As a Fargo resident, he’s just a few hours from the Canadian border which makes him an honorary Canadian. He played five events on the Canadian Tour back in 2011, including a win at The Players Cup which snagged him a spot in his first RBC Canadian Open. He does have that going for him, but his track record on par 72s is less than impressive. It’s probably unlikely that he repeats last year’s T5.

Luke List… After a hot start to the season, he continues to under-perform due to putting. However he just finished T20 on the easy Lake Course at Grand National. Could be a momentum builder heading into Glen Abbey, which will cater to his distance as he can attack the par 5s with mid-irons. Ranks 6th on TOUR in par 5 birdie or better percentage. Should be very firendly in DraftKings scoring format this week…as long as he makes it through the cut.

Canadian Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! It should go live this week late Monday or early Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Canadian Open

1. Jason Day

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Emiliano Grillo

4. Tony Finau

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Ryan Palmer

7. Charley Hoffman

8. Brandt Snedeker

9. Jon Rahm

10. Kevin Kisner

11. K.T. Kim

12. Bryson DeChambeau

13. William McGirt

14. Harold Varner III

15. Danny Lee

16. David Hearn

17. Daniel Summerhays

18. Chez Reavie

19. Adam Hadwin

20. Kyle Reifers

21. Matthew Fitzpatrick

22. Chad Campbell

23. Bud Cauley

24. Graeme McDowell

25. Jimmy Walker

Open Championship at Royal Troon Fantasy Preview

After a week off on the PGA TOUR, we now head across the pond for the year’s third major. The British Open Championship at Royal Troon.

Troon was last seen hosting the event in 2004 when Todd Hamilton won. In hindsight that is seen as an incredibly random name, but he had actually won the Honda Classic earlier that year, and was 33rd on the money list and 56th in the OWGR entering Royal Troon. For those who like weird trends like that, Harris English is currently 53rd in the World Rankings and 34th on the money list this year. Both very, very similar to Hamilton’s rankings back in 2004.

The course is a very standard links course, by the numbers, but it’s really a tale of two halves. The golfers generally have the wind at their backs for the outward nine, and it also happens to be where the course provides scoring opportunities. The inward nine becomes a beast as their are five par 4s over 450 yards and a 220-yard par 3… all going into the wind. Obviously, the amount that impacts play is determined by wind speeds each day, but the back nine is definitely one you just need to survive and hope your front-nine bounty was good enough.

Thanks to that grueling back nine, this course plays as one of the toughest in the Open Championship rota. The field average scores relative to par in the last five editions have been: +2.2 … +2.43 … +2.04 … +4.32 … +3.37, talk about tough! Like always with the Open Championship, since the course is exposed to the elements, we want to make sure we keep an eye on the weather and adjust accordingly if needed. For DFS purposes this is the perfect week to run a few “AM-Wave Only” and “PM-Wave Only” lineups, just in case one side of the draw gets the short stick.

Have a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more information on the course setup and golfer quotes from 2004.

Players to Watch

Sergio Garcia… The Spaniard has maneuvered himself out of numerous majors, but the Open Championship is one that always seems to be right in his grasps. He’s collected nine top 10s in 19 tries at the Open, so regardless of the venue, he always seems to be up to the task of a nice links-style test. He proved he can still cross the finish last two starts ago when he hoisted the trophy at the Byron Nelson. While the big 3/4/5/10 are all tempting, I think Serge might be the man for the job at Royal Troon.

Adam Scott… Much like Sergio, Adam Scott crushes every venue the Open Championship throws at him. In 16 starts, he’s posted five top 10s, including the last four editions. Putting often matters less at Open Championships which explains why Scott dominates these links-style layouts, since his ball-striking rises to the top.

Jordan Spieth… While putting may be limited at Open Championships for most, those rules don’t apply for some of the elite putters like Spieth and Day. They can drain putts from downtown on slow greens, fast greens, greens without gravity, greens that have just been recently aerated, it doesn’t matter! Other than his putting, what separates Spieth from the pack is his course management. He survives “C-Game” rounds better than anyone on TOUR, and that allows him to stick around and usually throws in a stellar round or two, getting him back into the mix. He’s also usually more prepared than 95% of the field for these big events.

Dustin Johnson… Back in 2004 Ernie Els had this to say about the course, “This week, you can miss fairways, so you don’t have to be as straight in the world. You can go into the rough. If you go into the real high stuff you’ve really got a problem. But if you hit solid drives they might just run off the fairways, you’re still going to be fine.” … The DJ we’ve seen over the past month has no worries here, but the DJ we’ve seen over his career has some of the biggest misses on TOUR, off the tee. Some other golfers than find themselves toward the bottom in adjusted distance from the edge of the fairway include: Bubba Watons, Phil Mickelson, J.B. Holmes, Justin Thomas, Smylie Kaufman, Jimmy Walker, Jamie Lovemark, Ryan Palmer, Bill Haas, Gary Woodland, Brendan Steele, and Tony Finau. All of these guys have potential (if they have a good driving week) and I do like DJ quite a bit this week but they all have a double bogey (or worse) in their pocket around every corner at Royal Troon.

Henrik Stenson… On the flip side, Stenson rarely has issues with accuracy. He’s not the first name that comes to mind when you think of links golf, but he does sport podium finishes in three of his 11 starts at the Open Championship. Don’t overlook him this week.

Emiliano Grillo… Might be called a Stenson-lite as he rarely veers far off the fairways. That raises his ceiling because fairways-and-greens will almost always get you past the cut line. The upside lies in his flat stick, as it sometimes chooses not to cooperate. Still one of my favorite sub-$7K plays on DraftKings this week.

Steve Stricker… Another golfer under $7,000 on DraftKings, Stricker doesn’t bring a lot of risk as he just plods along, but he possesses some solid upside as well. He sports a pair of top 10s on his Open Championship resume and he’s making his first trip back here since 2012 (by choice, so we know he’s looking for a spark). Probably my favorite cheap-o play on DK to throw onto a cash lineup and stack up elsewhere.

Francesco Molinari… Still mining for value on DraftKings, Molinari fits the bill at $7,000. He’s a fairways-and-greens machine, much like Grillo, but the Italian brings in Open Championship history, as well. He’s posted top 15s in two of the last three editions, and 3-of-8 overall, so he’s not just a “get across the cut line and finish T50” type of play.

Marc Warren… His form is not the greatest at the moment, but he brings in past success at majors (top 50s in last five major appearances) as well as local knowledge. He’s a Glasgow resident (at least according to his Wikipedia page) and that falls just 30 miles from Royal Troon. A very juicy local knowledge play who is not afraid of a little links golf and might just pay off big time!

Callum Shinkwin… Sticking with value-plays, the young Englishman may pick up a lot of steam after back-to-back top 10s in his last two starts (Open de France and Scottish Open). If you are a form-first type of guy, then Shinkwin may be your man. Other sub $7K bargain-bin plays I’m eyeing early on in the week include: Paddy Harrington, Soren Kjeldsen, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Kevin Chappell, and Tony Finau.

Louis Oosthuizen… Jumping away from the value wagon, we have this South African who is always boom-or-bust. A perfect GPP option this week since past WDs and poor putting weeks have burned enough owners by now that his ownership stays low. If you think the bad putters are brought back to the field a bit at Open Championships like I do, that also works in Shrek’s favor as he ranks 184th in strokes gained putting.

Branden Grace… Another South African, another golfer I want to own quite a bit this week. There is always the perception that low ball-flight players get a big advantage in the wind, and on links courses in general. While I think that is a bit of a myth, I don’t think it hurts to have a low ball flight. High ball-flight golfers are generally elite ball-strikers and elite ball-strikers have the ability to adjust to their surroundings and play the shot that is demanded. Low ball-flighters get to play like they always do, and Grace has one of the lowest ball flights on TOUR so he will be very comfortable hitting the low burners that roll forever.

Open Championship Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! It should go live this week late Monday or early Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Open at Royal Troon

1. Sergio Garcia

2. Jordan Spieth

3. Henrik Stenson

4. Jason Day

5. Dustin Johnson

6. Adam Scott

7. Rory McIlroy

8. Louis Oosthuizen

9. Rickie Fowler

10. Branden Grace

11. Lee Westwood

12. Francesco Molinari

13. Patrick Reed

14. Steve Stricker

15. Phil Mickelson

16. Charl Schwartzel

17. Matt Kuchar

18. Jim Furyk

19. Danny Willett

20. Emiliano Grillo

21. Chris Wood

22. Justin Rose

23. Rafa Cabrera Bello

24. Marc Warren

25. Martin Kaymer

Scottish Open Fantasy Preview

After nailing the French Open, it’s time to keep the momentum rolling into Scotland.

The top 5 in my power rankings last week finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 11th. Talk about going exactly as planned! This week we head to Castle Stuart Golf Links where the golfers will prep for next week’s Open Championship.

The course is a par 72 and just 7,193 yards, pretty short for a par 72 layout. Like always, the Scottish Open features a links-style course, so having a look at past editions will always be helpful. In particular, this week’s venue was used in 2011, 2012, and 2013.

The 2011 version was rain-shortened as they could only manage 54 holes due to heavy rains. That helped the course play extremely easy, but they didn’t really need that help. This venue has played more than a stroke under par (field average RTP) each of the three visits. With generous fairways, the only real defense is weather. There are some heavy winds in the forecast but I still expect this things to be a cakewalk compared to next week at Royal Troon.

Players to Watch

Branden Grace… We’ve got a links course and it’s being played overseas, Grace is the man for the job! He finished runner-up to Phil here last time Castle Stuart hosted (2013) so we know the course fits his eye. Don’t overthink this one. Perfect Course Fit + Past History at Course + Great Form. Bingo!

Shane Lowry… Disappointing title defense last week but he still managed to post the fifth-best birdie or better percentage in the field at Firestone. If he can avoid some of those big numbers this week, he looks like a strong candidate to bounce back in a big way. Just like Grace above, you should fire up Lowry anytime the word links is mentioned!

Phil Mickelson… Returns as the defending champ at this venue. He may not be the first name you think of when links-style venues become the topic of conversation. Regardless, his crafty style of play and aggressive tendencies make him a great DK play whenever course history doesn’t lead you away from him. I’m thinking we should see a top 15 this week with plenty of birdies on his scorecard.

Graeme McDowell… I can’t remember the last time I’ve played G-Mac with confidence, but I really like the setup for him this week. It’s a coastal, links layout which is right up his alley. He doesn’t actually enjoy playing in tough weather conditions, but he’s better at it than most, so that’s always a plus to have at any links-style venue. I give him two Phil Mickelson thumbs up this week.

Hao Tong Li… Early on in his young career, he’s shown incredible ability to post the low rounds (beat the field average by 2+ strokes in any given round) but also avoid the disaster rounds. In fact, his ratio of boom-to-bust rounds is very similar to Branden Grace and Henrik Stenson, very good company to be in! I think he could really become a force once he gets some reps on these courses, worldwide.

Nino Bertasio… Let us down last week but he’s been an ATM ever since DK launched Euro Tour. I’m ready to forgive last week and jump right back in. Same goes for Chris Hanson who is also criminally underpriced on DraftKings.

Thongchai Jaidee… Compared him to Jim Furyk last week due to his consistency week-to-week and then he goes out and wins the dang tournament. After winning last week at Le Golf National (a very tough course) he now takes on a very easy Castle Stuart. Should be good for a cut made, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last week’s fireworks.

Ricardo Gouveia… He’s my darkhorse of the week, that has shocking consistency for how little he’s even mentioned. He’s beat the field average (in terms of scoring average) in 13 of his last 17 starts (72%). That means, even his MCs are close, and he’s rarely imploding. To put that in perspective, golfers like Chris Wood and Martin Kaymer have beat the field average in 66% of their starts and cost more than $10K this week. I’m not saying Wood or Kaymer are bad plays this week (they have huge upside) but Gouveia could be a really nice bargain-bin play.

Russell Knox… He’s at the very bottom of the top 25 but he possesses plenty of upside. I worry about his putting abilities in a potential shootout that may breakout at Castle Stuart. If the you think the weather makes the course play tougher this week, this I would bump Knox up the lsit. Same goes for J.B. Holmes who currently sits at #26 on my rankings.

Scottish Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet!

My Top 25 for the 2016 Scottish Open

1. Branden Grace

2. Shane Lowry

3. Henrik Stenson

4. Phil Mickelson

5. Graeme McDowell

6. Nicolas Colsaerts

7. Luke Donald

8. Patrick Reed

9. Chris Wood

10. David Lingmerth

11. Gregory Bourdy

12. Martin Kaymer

13. Chris Hanson

14. Hao Tong Li

15. Ross Fisher

16. Nino Bertasio

17. Thongchai Jaidee

18. Ricardo Gouveia

19. Alex Noren

20. Soren Kjeldsen

21. Thomas Pieters

22. Matthew Fitzpatrick

23. Mikko Korhonen

24. Bradley Dredge

25. Russell Knox

100th Open de France Fantasy Preview

You wouldn’t know it by the size of DraftKings GPPs this week, but one of the European Tour’s biggest events going on this week.

There are 30 of the world’s top 100 teeing it up at at Le Golf National. It’s a par 71 of average length. It will be hosting the 2018 Ryder Cup, so besides the 2x Ryder Cup points the Europeans are getting this week, they are also getting some reps at a future Ryder Cup venue.

The greens are bentgrass and the course has some teeth. Since 2005, the field average has been 72.99 (+1.99 strokes over-par). The OWGR strength of field rating is 235 which is strong by European Tour standards. Try to find golfers that have past success against these strong fields and also aren’t afraid of a test setup.

Players to Watch

Francesco Molinari… The Italian is a steady option week-to-week but even more so when he brings in course history like this. Over his last 11 starts here he’s collected top 30s in nine of them, finishing runner-up twice. More importantly, this tells us a lot about the setup of Le Golf National. If Molinari is a course horse and someone like G-Mac has won twice here, it’s definitely not about distance off the tee. Look for that fairways-and-greens lifestyle this week.

Rory McIlroy… I just talked about how the course doesn’t cater to distance, but McIlroy is always in play. He’s the class of the field, always worth a strong look despite the course fit.

Martin Kaymer… While the German is not always the safest option, he finds plenty of comfort at Le Golf National. He’s gained strokes over the field in eight of his last nine starts at this course (gaining 76.47 strokes over the field total, third only to Molinari and Soren Kjeldsen). I would never dare throw Kaymer in cash during a PGA TOUR event, but I think he’s cash-viable on DraftKings this week given his strong course history.

Graeme Storm… Speaking of cash viable, I wouldn’t go as far as to say Storm should be in your cash lineups, but you could do worse this week in GPPs. He’s finished T21 or better in seven of his last 11 starts at Le Golf National, including a 2007 victory.

Nino Bertasio… I’m going to keep riding the Italian until the wheels fall off. He’s playing great golf, finishing T21 or better in five of his last six starts.

Thongchai Jaidee… He’s going through a bit of a slump which explains the low price. However, he’s one of the steadiest golfers across the pond, long-term. Over his last 98 rounds of Euro Tour play, he’s beat the field average by two or more strokes 44 times. On the flip side he’s only lost 2+ strokes in 6 of those 98 rounds. That ratio is very similar to a Matt Kuchar or Jim Furyk over here in the states. Safety first.

Andy Sullivan… His partner was putting him on blast via Twitter earlier this week, claiming he’s been cheating on her while she’s pregnant. Ouch! It’s hard to know the affects of an off-the-course situation like this, but I don’t want to back a golfer that may have other demons running through his head. I am avoiding Sully this week and the foreseeable future.

WGC Bridgestone & Open de France Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Open de France

1. Francesco Molinari

2. Martin Kaymer

3. Rory McIlroy

4. Thongchai Jaidee

5. Lee Westwood

6. Gregory Bourdy

7. Joost Luiten

8. Bernd Wiesberger

9. Chris Wood

10. Danny Willett

11. Nino Bertasio

12. Luke Donald

13. Bradley Dredge

14. Tyrrell Hatton

15. Ross Fisher

16. Rafa Cabrera Bello

17. Matthew Fitzpatrick

18. Jaco Van Zyl

19. Jamie Donaldson

20. Graeme McDowell

21. Mikko Korhonen

22. Richard Bland

23. Maximilian Kieffer

24. James Morrison

25. Hao Tong Li

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Fantasy Preview

This week the TOUR heads to Akron, Ohio, for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. This event is usually in August, but Olympics put a kink in the summer schedule. With the French Open counting double Ryder Cup points in Europe, many of the top names left Bridgestone off their schedule. So now, we have a measly 61-man field this week.

Much like the size of the field, let’s try to keep this thin. The course is Firestone CC (South), a par 70 that stretch out to 7,400 yards. Very long for a par 70! When you take out the mammoth 667-yard par 5, it becomes more manageable for the shorter hitters. Length is still an advantage, though, considering there are seven par 4s over 460 yards. The greens are bentgrass and they get them running quick (generally between 12.5 and 13). The change in the schedule could throw a wrench in course difficulty expectations. Keep an eye on player quotes to see if the course sets up any differently in June versus August.

Course history is valuable but not required as Shane Lowry proved last year. Nine of the last 10 winners had posted at least one top 15 at Firestone before their victory (Lowry’s previous best was 48th place). Seven of the last 10 winners had also played the event at least five times before winning.

Since 2010 the field average driving distance is 293 yards which is a great indicator of the setup. Golfers will be asked to pull driver out of their bag on nearly every par 4 and 5. Shane Lowry said it best last year when asked about his game plan, “Hit a driver on every hole and just take it from there and see what happens.”

Because this course asks you to hit A LOT of drivers, strokes gained off-the-tee is a fantastic place to start. Eight of the last 10 winners finished the season inside the top 10 in SG:OTT (Lowry didn’t meet qualifications but would have ranked 8th). Distance is useful this week, but keeping the ball out of the thick stuff is also crucial.

I didn’t forget about the Barracuda Championship. I’ve included my top 15 ranking for that alternate-field event that using Modified Stableford Scoring.

Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Justin Rose… Arrives with concerns about his back, but I don’t think he’d tee it up if he weren’t ready to compete. It helps (his recovery) that he had a week off after his MC at Oakmont. He boasts top 5s in three of his last four trips to Akron. He’s won the Memorial (2010), an event I consider to be a great pointer this week (bentgrass, fast greens, long par 4s). Said this last year when asked about his great play in Ohio, “I love the golf — the condition of the golf course is always first class when we play the Memorial and again here. The types of grasses are fantastic, the bentgrass and then whatever the rough is. You know, I kind of like these overseeded type golf courses. Yeah, just they’re really pure. Greens are fast. Greens are pure. So, yeah, that’s kind of the style I like to play.”

Jim Furyk… I backed off my initial love for Furyk last week when I dove deeper into his course history. The fact he finished inside the top 25 despite mediocre history is very good news. I’m basically treating Furyk like normal again, and this week that means he’s an elite option. He’s posted top 10s in 10 of his 16 visits to this event. Hard to ignore that.

Dustin Johnson… Much like Furyk, you can’t ignore his track record here, but it goes the other direction. In six trips, his best finish is 15th place. IF he drives it like he has recently, he will beat that 15th place, but let’s not forget who DJ really is. He’s not accurate off the tee, despite what you saw for eight days at Oakmont and TPC Southwind. His misses are big, and those get penalized here at Firestone. Coming off his first major and playing on a course where he sports bad course history? Sounds like a nice fade opportunity.

Jason Day… Same as DJ, his form is through the roof, but course history leaves a lot to be desired. Has a T4 and T12 but also four finishes outside the top 20. On a week with only 61 golfers to choose from, eliminating some of the top options is very helpful. I could see a finish in the 5th to 15th range, but I’m not expecting a win. Because of that, it’s easy for me to look elsewhere this week. Consider this a mini-fade for me.

Adam Scott… If you decide to fade Day, like me, but still want an elite Aussie, Adam Scott is your man. He won here in 2011 and owns three other top 10s at Firestone. He’s only 41st in SG:OTT but 1st in strokes gained approach, the same exact ranks that Tiger Woods finished the season in 2009 (won Bridgestone that year).

Rickie Fowler… Despite the recent slump, he still ranks sixth in strokes gained off-the-tee. He’s always played better on bentgrass and Firestone is no exception, he’s posted top 10s in three of his six visits. Last week he was close before fading on Sunday, it’s time to get back on the train.

Hideki Matsuyama… Much like Fowler, he’s in a slump but inside the top 10 in strokes gained off-the-tee. His robotic tee-to-green games makes him a great option any week he tees it up and this week he’ll be very unpopular due to his current form. I also like that he’s won in Ohio on slick greens (2014 Memorial).

David Lingmerth… Following the Memorial trend, the 2015 Memorial winner is also popping for me. His baseline expectations are lower, but a T6 last year in his debut shows the kind of upside he has at Firestone.

Jason Dufner… Getting back to potential fades, I’m not on the Dufner dolly this week. This course is a beast and forces you to hit a lot of drivers. Dufner is very capable of dominating with the driver (when he’s locked in), but he’s not long off the tee and pretty mediocre on and around the green. If he doesn’t bring his very best stuff tee-to-green or have a career week on the greens, it will be really hard to muster up a top 25. He does sport top 10s in two of his three visits to Firestone and has the local angle in his favor, but all the other numbers are screaming to stay away.

Kevin Na… He doesn’t have the length you’d want here but if the course looks to be playing firm and fast, fire up Na. He’s sneakily one of the best putters on fast greens, as well. He’s posted top 25s in 12 of his last 19 starts when the stimp is over 12 feet.

Brandt Snedeker… Speaking of fast greens, Sneds does not get along with them. His game lines up nicely for Firestone, except for the slick greens. Over his last 17 starts when the stimp is over 12 feet, he’s posted top 25s in just four of them. Jimmy Walker is a similar case, as he’s posted just 2 top 25s over his last 14 starts on fast greens. Coincidence that two of the best poa annua putters don’t get the job done on slicked up greens that run smoothly? I think not.

WGC Bridgestone & Open de France Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 WGC Bridgestone Invitational

1. Justin Rose

2. Jim Furyk

3. Adam Scott

4. Jordan Spieth

5. Hideki Matsuyama

6. Patrick Reed

7. Brooks Koepka

8. Jason Day

9. Rickie Fowler

10. Zach Johnson

11. Matt Kuchar

12. Dustin Johnson

13. Smylie Kaufman

14. Kevin Na

15. Bubba Watson

16. Bill Haas

17. Branden Grace

18. J.B. Holmes

19. Daniel Berger

20. Scott Piercy

21. Kevin Chappell

22. Danny Lee

23. David Lingmerth

24. Shane Lowry

25. Marc Leishman

My Top 15 for the 2016 Barracuda Championship

1. Gary Woodland

2. Kyle Reifers

3. Brendan Steele

4. Jon Rahm

5. Patrick Rodgers

6. J.J. Henry

7. Colt Knost

8. Jonas Blixt

9. Tom Hoge

10. John Senden

11. Michael Kim

12. Chris Stroud

13. Luke List

14. Bronson Burgoon

15. Seung-yul Noh

Quicken Loans National Fantasy Preview

After the final round controlled by USGA drama, DJ walked away with his first major championship at Oakmont last week. The penalty he got was beyond absurd, and it really would have been a travesty if it ended up making an impact. On the flip side, he got one of the luckiest breaks of all-time when he was allowed to drop from the nasty rough and give himself a good lie in the first cut. Regardless, it was a well deserved win after putting on a stripe show off the tee, ALL WEEK.

This week we head to Congressional Country Club for the Quicken Loans National. The strength of field has been up-and-down quite a bit here. This year it gets the shaft due to scheduling, as most of the big guns have a packed schedule this summer, so this was an easy event to leave off. Last year, they played at Robert Trent Jones Golf Club, but return to Congo this week. Also host of the 2012 through 2014 editions as well as the 2011 U.S. Open.

The course is a beast this week. It’s a par 71 that stretches out past 7,569 yards. There are seven par 4s over 460 yards. You better not leave your driver at home because you’ll need it early and often here. Two years ago Justin Rose was quoted saying this course is not target practice like so many stops on TOUR. You have to be precise with your yardages because the greens are tricky and the rough is thick.

Good putters CAN succeed here, but it’s not something I would want to lean on this week. Ball striking is really the name of the game this week. Recent winners here include Justin Rose, Bill Haas, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy (U.S. Open). That is elite ball-striking right there. Of those three winners that have come here at the QLN, they gained 37% of their strokes with their approach play. I would focus on approach game and then hope the putters get hot. If a golfer is negative on their strokes gained approach-the-green, I want no (or very little) piece of them this week.

The greens are slick, so I would consider Muirfield Village a nice comp if you want/need a comp. Other bentgrass greens on driver-heavy courses are TPC Boston, TPC Summerlin, and Firestone CC. I think all four of those venues can be nice pointers/tiebreakers this week.

Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Rickie Fowler… Arrives with three straight MCs. There has been only one truly terrible round during that three-event stretch (opening round 75 at Memorial which lost 4.3 strokes to the field). Other than that, he’s just struggled with the flat stick. We know that putting comes with a lot of variance. Luckily, his driver has not abandoned him, he’s gained strokes off the tee in every measured start since the Barclays last year. That will come in handy at Congressional as he’ll be able to grip-it and rip-it and he’s sneakily one of the more accurate golfers at the same time. Despite the recent missed cuts, he’s still my #1 golfer this week, and I think he bounces back in a big way.

Jim Furyk… His strokes gained approach-the-green was trending perfectly ahead of last week’s U.S. Open and he kept that momentum rolling straight into a top 5. Now that we have Old Jimmy back, it’s time to give treat him like you normally would last year. What he lacks in birdie/eagle power, he makes up with consistency and finishing points. The fact that Fluff is a member here at Congressional is icing on the cake. UPDATE: Upon further look, it’s surprising how poor Jim has played Congressional in the past. Despite his good finish last week, I will scale back my exposure.

Tony Finau… Rounding out the F-Society is Finau. You know the routine by now. Are the greens bermuda? No…play Finau.

Patrick Reed… He’s not as devastating with his driver compared to Fowler, but his scrambling is what makes him attractive. On a long course like this, it gives you plenty of yardage to miss the green when you don’t have your A game. Reed’s top-class scrambling makes him able to survive those mediocre rounds. If his putter heats up he’s got that winning sparkle in his eyes, but most likely we see a nice top-20 finish.

Hudson Swafford… Looking at courses that allow you to rip it off the tee, Swafford has top 25s in seven of his last 18 on these driver-heavy courses. That 39 percent rate is three times his T25 rate in all other events over that stretch (8/60, 13 percent). It’s always about avoiding the big numbers with Swafford, but this is the type of track that Swafford could finally breakthrough on.

Patrick Rodgers… Much like the Swafficer above, Rodgers loves a course that let’s him crush his driver. However, he’s posted just one top 25 in 18 starts on bentgrass. I think this percentage will only increase as he continues to grow as a player, but for now I will play the percentages and hold back, keeping my exposure light and flaky.

Smylie Kaufman… His disappearing act since the Masters will leave him far off the radar, but I think he could bounce back this week, for a few reasons. First, his only cut made since the Masters was at the Memorial (fast bentgrass greens). Second, Congo let’s you feast with the driver, and that’s his speciality. In six other starts on “driver-heavy” courses he’s finished top 25 in five of them, including his win at the Shriners.

Jordan Niebrugge… While Rahm, Bryson, and Wesley Bryan might be the shiny new toys, we can’t overlook Niebrugge. He’s making his pro debut after a decorated college career at Oky State. Need proof/reminder of his upside? Go look at last year’s British Open.

Roberto Castro… Has form and course history on his side. The only problem is his lack of raw skill. Someone to fade if it looks like he will be really popular as the week goes on. The same goes for Robert Garrigus. They are both solid course history options, but you don’t want to get stuck on them if their ownerships are too high.

Russell Henley… This course will let him bomb it off the tee, and his putter always comes to play. It’s just a matter of how his approach game will be. If it’s mediocre he could snag a top 30, if it’s on point, he sports winning upside.

Will Wilcox… His form is a bit off, but the course is a solid fit. It has seven long par 4s, and Wilcox is second in the field in scoring on similar holes of this length. Keep an eye on his Twitter to see how his game feels.

Billy Hurley III… He loves tough tracks, so this is a natural fit. The event is also very close to the Naval academy (where BH3 attended). He still lives about an hour from the course, so this is as close as it gets to a home game for Hurley III.

Adam Hadwin… This is not a week where I want to rely on putting, but Hadwin is a great GPP play that could really pop if his tee-to-green game is at least serviceable this week. One of the best putters on TOUR and he’s better on bentgrass, so this is right up his alley.

Jon Rahm… Really impressed me by grinding out a cut made after a disappointing R1 at last week’s U.S. Open. He is the real deal, and he might be relatively under-the-radar for a week or two more.

Webb Simpson… Looking at the correlated courses I mentioned earlier, Webb really stands out. He’s won at TPC Boston AND TPC Summerlin. I think the tricky greens can level the playing field on the greens (a tad) this week, as long as ball-striking is there. Wouldn’t trust him by any means, but he’s not someone you should go out of your way to fade, either.

Quicken Loans National Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 Quicken Loans National

1. Rickie Fowler

2. Tony Finau

3. Patrick Reed

4. Russell Henley

5. Adam Hadwin

6. Justin Thomas

7. Hudson Swafford

8. Bill Haas

9. Jim Furyk

10. Ryan Palmer

11. Brendan Steele

12. Smylie Kaufman

13. Charley Hoffman

14. Gary Woodland

15. Webb Simpson

16. Will Wilcox

17. Kevin Chappell

18. Patton Kizzire

19. Marc Leishman

20. Bryson DeChambeau

21. Jon Rahm

22. Bud Cauley

23. Si Woo Kim

24. Chez Reavie

25. Robert Garrigus

U.S. Open Fantasy Preview

The TOUR heads to Oakmont for the second major of the season and boy will it be a doozy! Angel ‘El Pato’ Cabrera won this last time (2007) with a winning score of 5-over-par and it’s not expected to play any easier this time around.

The course is Oakmont Country Club. It’s a par 70, 7,255 yard track that is world-renowned for it’s lightning-fast greens. The joke with the members of the club is that when the PGA TOUR comes to play, they have to trim the rough and slow down the greens for the TOUR players. There is a reason why the blue tees play at just 6,436 yards for the members. With five par 4s under 410 yards, many golfers will opt for less-than-driver on more than half the holes. There are basically eight holes where driver can be/is the preferred route. Length is not supposed to be a factor here. It’s about splitting the fairways (or close enough to where you’re in the first cut of rough and not the 5 inch nastiness that exists when you miss more than 3 yards off the fairway).

There are no trees or water on the course (very links-like) but there are fescue ditches that are technically “water hazards”. You may get lucky if you land in one and be able to play out of the hazard but most likely you will be forced to drop just like water was actually there. The church pew fairway bunkers will get a lot of love this week. They are often just “punch out” bunkers that add a stroke to your score and can penalize you even further if you attempt to get cute. The USGA has shaved the rough around the fairways bunkers this year to allow more balls to trickle into the bunkers (rather than ending on in the rough on awkward lies). Performance out of fairway bunkers may be an interesting angle to look at but ideally you still want to pick golfers that will avoid the bunkers.

From there, the green surfaces are large enough that hitting them is not too difficult, but keeping them on the green is the hard part. Remember these greens run around 14 feet on the stimp and are heavily sloped. That affects more than just putting. Balls will naturally roll off the edges if you miss in the wrong spots. Because of this, GIR numbers will be low this week (52% and 53.6% last two editions) and play around the green will become an important stat to look at.

Once you reach the greens, you have to deal with unique poa that runs at 14 feet on the stimp. You can view poa annua specialists if you want a tiebreaker but like that article mentions, this is a very unique strain of poa annua. It’s cut so short that it’s really not like the poa we’re used to seeing on the California Swing.

One tournament you may want to use as a tie-breaker is the Masters. It makes sense given the overall difficulty and extremely slick greens on both courses. Of the 12 golfers that finished top 10 in 2007, nien of them had at least one top 20 at Augusta prior to their Top 10 here at Oakmont.

Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Jason Day… He’s obviously going to be very popular but for good reason. His raw ranking isn’t first in my model but a few things had me move him up from third to first on a manual adjustment. First, he’s played a lot of less-than-driver courses this year. A few of the bigger hitters avoid the LT Driver tracks because their length gets negated. Day has decided to embrace his advantage on and around the greens, and we’ve seen him really excel on less-than-driver courses this year. Second, looking at SGP on fast greens since the start of 2015, only Aphibarnrat has a higher SGP (min 100 holes measured). Third, his currently form is obviously remarkable. The win rate since last year is huge, especially on a week where hole-by-hole points will be tough to come by. Owning the winner will be huge.

Henrik Stenson… A course where driving accuracy is a big advantage and driver is not needed on most holes? That screams Stenson to me. The flat stick will be the wildcard, but I think his floor is very nice given his ball-striking.

Rory McIlroy… His baseline performance is so good that it’s never a bad idea to take him. Will he actually win? Well, we’ve seen a lot of loose approach shots from him this year which will lead to brutal lies in the thick stuff this week. We may see too many double bogeys for him to truly win. With nearly all the trees removed from the course, it’s returned to it’s links-style roots and we know how Rory is not the greatest on links venues, although wind is not forecasted too high at the moment. All that said, I still think he’s a safe bet to finish top 25.

Dustin Johnson… He looks locked in off the tee and controlling his ball masterfully in terms of ball flight and shot-shaping. The only problem is his play around the green. He currently ranks 105th in strokes gained around-the-green and 160th last year. He’s actually pretty good on slick greens, but he may bleed too many strokes from the rough/sand around the green.

Billy Horschel… Billy Ho was one of the biggest critics last year at Chambers Bay. He’s already raving about the “traditional US Open setup” at Oakmont. Last year he was instantly taken out of contention due to his mindset, I think it’s the opposite this week. Should be able to grab a top 25 and has top 10 upside if he gets the putter working for the week.

Brooks Koepka… He’s stated his love for tough courses in the past and the stats back it up. He’s gained strokes over the field in 13 of his last 15 starts on courses that played at least 0.75 strokes over par. He also arrives with back-to-back runner-ups. Boom, great play.

Retief Goosen… Is a two-time U.S. Open champ, so we know he likes the way USGA sets up a tough test. He’s played rejuvenated golf this year, too, arriving with three straight top 15s. Solid cash-game option on DK, but really doubt we see a top 10.

Daniel Berger… Coming off his maiden victory, we often see golfers struggle in this situation. However, it’s a major championship week, so his media duties may not increase that much since all the big names are in the field this week. He’s said in the past that he feels comfortable on tracks that feature a lot of water, because he feels comfortable. No water this week + coming off first win = good week to avoid or keep to a sprinkle of ownership.

Justin Rose… His back injury is a concern, but he’s a great fit for this type of layout, otherwise. He’s a grinder that is very comfortable settling with pars. I think he’s a great GPP play since many will avoid due to injury concerns.

David Lingmerth… This is scary to recommend, but the Swede is popping in a lot of areas this week. He’s won at the Memorial so we know he can handle slick greens. He’s better on par-70 layouts, and doesn’t mind clubbing down off the tee. A decent deep sleeper, in my opinion.

Matthew Fitzpatrick… When you can be considered the “next great thing” despite being short-to-average length off the tee, you know the rest of your game is legit. He won his last start in Europe so he’s arriving in good spirits. In six measured rounds on quick greens, he’s gained 0.683 strokes putting per round which is inside the top 20. Obviously a small sample, but makes him worth a look.

Brendan Steele… He loves playing tough tracks and seems to up his game as the strength of field increases. Over his last 11 starts on courses that played 0.75 strokes-over-par or tougher, he’s gained four or more strokes over the field in seven of those starts. High upside play if his putter cooperates!

Paul Casey… The U.S. Open has never been his favorite but his lone top 10 was at Oakmont (2007). He blasted the field by nearly 11 strokes when he carded a second-round 66. Good memories and doesn’t mind slick greens. That makes him a solid option in all formats.

Hideki Mastsuyama… I’m on the fence here. I wanted to go all in on Hideki after seeing his stats on fast greens. He owns top 10s in nine of his last 18 starts when the stimp is over 12 feet. That’s a 50 percent rate compared to his 20 percent baseline in other events during that time. HOWEVER, he’s collected just one top 10 during his last 13 starts on par 70 layouts. Which angle will win out!?

Soren Kjeldsen… One of the most accurate in field, which should help his floor. He posted just one three-putt at the Masters, which is fantastic for his potential on quick greens. Only one golfer finished all four rounds without a three-putt at Augusta.

Emiliano Grillo… Another fairways-and-greens golfer which could really pop. He posted a T17 at the Masters and wouldn’t be shocking to see a similar result this week. Would be #26 on my rankings if they extended that far.

U.S. Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 U.S. Open

1. Jason Day

2. Rory Mcilroy

3. Henrik Stenson

4. Jordan Spieth

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Brooks Koepka

7. Hideki Matsuyama

8. Dustin Johnson

9. Justin Rose

10. Sergio Garcia

11. Adam Scott

12. Bubba Watson

13. Paul Casey

14. Charl Schwartzel

15. Patrick Reed

16. Rickie Fowler

17. Billy Horschel

18. Danny Willett

19. Bill Haas

20. Kevin Chappell

21. Lee Westwood

22. Retief Goosen

23. Soren Kjeldsen

24. Brendan Steele

25. J.B. Holmes

Lyoness Open Fantasy Preview

Taking a quick hop over to Austria, it’s time for a look at this week’s Lyoness Open.

The course is Diamond Country Club, a lengthy par 72. Unlike last week’s the layout it’s more traditional with four par 5s, four par 3s. There is plenty of water in play and exposed to wind. Sounds like a ball-strikers layout to me.

Since 2010, the field average is 72.65, so it’s no cakewalk, this course has some teeth if you’re not up to the task.

Players to Watch

Bernd Wiesberger… “I wanted to be fresh for my home event so I had a couple of days off in Vienna”… Bernd is not happy about missing the cut here last year. Prior to that he posted finishes of 2nd, 14th, 1st, 5th in the four years prior. He’s one of the top golfers in the field already, but add in the home country advantage/motivation, and I think it makes him the clear-cut favorite this week.

Joost Louiten… Has finished on the podium in each of the past three visits here. Safe to say he likes the layout.

Nino Bertasio… The rookie has top 15s in three of his last four starts. I may be hesitant to ride this train for too long, but this week’s field is nothing to be scared of.

Dylan Fritelli… One of my favorite GPP plays this week. My only concern is jet-lag as he played in a U.S. Open sectional qualifier on Monday. He was out of contention after 18 holes, so he withdrew (hopefully to catch an earlier plane to Austria). While most of his juicy results have come on lesser tours, he owns top 15s in five of his last eight on those lesser tours. The Texas Longhorn has the game to make it work on the Euro Tour, so I will get on board.

Dean Burmester… Much like Fritelli, this South African has crushed the Sunshine Tour, but it’s time to take a step up. He won four times last year, so we know he won’t shy away when he’s in the mix. Withdrew from a Challenge Tour event last week after an opening 80. Told me via Twitter that he had some lower back pain but feels better this week.

Jason Scrivener… Had him as a long-course specialist last week and he let me/us down. The same applies this week since Diamond CC stretches out past 7,450 yards. He’s gained strokes over the field in seven of last nine starts on longer courses. His strokes gained per round is about half-a-shot better per round in those events, compared to his baseline. Despite his mediocre form, I’m going back to the well.

Lee Slattery… Great mix of course history and form. There are some with better form/course combos but Slattery is a bit cheaper on DraftKings compared to the others.

Paul Dunne… Last week we saw Fitzpatrick win on pure cachet. Dunne could follow in his footsteps since he’s also been labeled “the next big thing”… not quite as much at Fitz, but Dunne has some nice pedigree, so I will take a strong look at him in a weak field like this.

Chris Hanson… He’s in good form and was on a squad that finished inside the top 10 for me last week in the DK Birdie. I will give him another look because of that, but he lost 5.77 strokes to the field in his lone trip to this event… I’m not going to have too much Hanson exposure for that reason.

Lyoness Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet!

My Top 25 for the 2016 Lyoness Open

1. Bernd Wiesberger

2. Gregory Bourdy

3. Chris Wood

4. Richard Bland

5. Joost Luiten

6. Jason Scrivener

7. Magnus A. Carlsson

8. Lee Slattery

9. Nino Bertasio

10. Richie Ramsay

11. James Morrison

12. Dylan Frittelli

13. Paul Dunne

14. Dean Burmester

15. Lasse Jensen

16. Callum Shinkwin

17. David Drysdale

18. Adrian Otaegui

19. Scott Henry

20. David Howell

21. Eduardo De La Riva

22. Kristoffer Broberg

23. Anthony Wall

24. Florian Fritsch

25. Shiv Kapur

FedEx St. Jude Classic Fantasy Preview

Despite the attention garnered by the big three, it was Team Srixon that came away the winner at last week’s Memorial. William McGirt took care of Jon Curran in a playoff and J.B. Holmes finished just two shots back. Whatever it was that helped them succeed, they must have forgot to tell other Srixon’er Hideki Matsuyama because he looked like a mess despite winning and finishing top 5 in his first two appearance at Muirfield Village. He was spotted using some new irons last week, perhaps he should reconsider that decision.

This week we head to Memphis for the St. Jude Classic. It’s hosted by TPC Southwind, a par 70 track whose scorecard reads 7,244 yards. It features a few shorter par 3s, including the par-3 11th which is a “mini TPC Sawgrass 17th clone”. Despite the mediocre yardage on the scorecard, it features seven par 4s over 450 yards, so mid-to-long iron play will prove more relevant than wedge play. The fairways are some of the hardest to hit on TOUR, as are the greens, which means scrambling is another key attribute to consider this week. Keeping it between the pipes is helpful around here, as well, especially if you want a chance to hold these greens which measure just 5,420 square feet on average.

We’ve seen golfers like Greg Owen and Boo Weekley have success around here, so putting is obviously not a prerequisite on these bermuda greens (Bermuda since 2004).

Is experience required? No. Three of the past six winners were making their tournament debut. Is it helpful? Yes. The other seven (of L10) winners averaged eight starts here before hoisting the trophy, and all seven of them had a previous top 15 on their St. Jude Classic resume.

Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Gary Woodland… will not come cheap this week, but it’s well deserved when you consider the field strength and the current form he’s found since reuniting with Butch a few months ago. Has rattled off five straight top 35s, top 15s in his last two. Trending toward that winner’s circle and finished T18 in his last trip to TPC Southwind (2013).

Ryan Palmer… He’s taken a liking to TPC Southwind (top 35s last four years; two inside top 5) and he’s one of the steadiest golfers in the field, despite his affinity for the water ball from time to time. DJ and Brooks may draw all the attention at the top, but Palmer is right there with them this week.

Francesco Molinari… I thought he was a knockout play last week, but he faltered in the second round to miss the cut. Was it jet-lag from playing the week before at Wentworth? We’ll never know but I will go right back to the well since he’s a proven cut-maker and not far removed from solid form. His fairways-and-greens style of play fits the mold of recent winners like Fabian Gomez, Ben Crane, Brian Gay, Justin Leonard, and David Toms.

Dustin Johnson… Destroyed gamers last year after starting bogey-bogey-bogey and calling it quits after nine holes. He’s proven he can lose interest in weeks before a major so he comes with some risk if he gets off to another slow start. You can’t ignore him, though, because he’s the class of the field and can lap the field if he brings his A game.

Phil Mickelson… Lefty loves the setup of TPC Southwind. Said this a few years back, “This is great because it’s a great test. The guy that strikes it well is going to have a big advantage, but when do you miss greens, you’ve got to be pretty sharp with your short game because the lies around the greens are some of the most difficult that we get.” PHil is top 20 in both SG:Approach-the-Green AND Around-the-Green. It’s no wonder he loves the layout.

Brooks Koepka… He’s part of the top-tier here that is a cut above the rest. Check out the rankings for the 7 golfers I think belong in that top tier. I see a big drop-off after that first seven. He’s a great option on pure cachet alone. Top 20s in his first two visits also helps.

Retief Goosen… IF you think the tournament officials try to get this course similar to a U.S. Open test, then Goosen has to be on your radar. He’s the epitome of a US Open golfer. Loves a good challenge off the tee, and grinds out pars with the best of em.

Daniel Berger… He fits the mold of classy players that have won on their tournament debuts (Westwood, DJ, English). Fizzled out last week, but is still in great form.

Charles Howell III… Always seems to be labeled as a West Coast specialist, but arrives at nearly every event with serviceable course history. His game travels well, and with two top 10s in nine tries at TPC Southwind, I think he deserves a look this week.

Scott Stallings… Home Game Alert for Stallings. He played here in Junior Golf events, so he knows the course very well. Owns top 35s in three of five visits here. Torrey Pines might be the only other track where you’ll find that kind of consistency from SS. That beings said, it’s still Scott Stallings, so stick to GPPs only here.

Wesley Bryan… Making his PGA TOUR debut. Previously just known as a trick-shot artist, he’s since won twice on the Web.com Tour this year. He’s gained two or more strokes over the field in 15 of his 34 Web.com Tour rounds. Golfers with a similar ratio on the minor league circuit include Jason Gore, Blayne Barber, Whee Kim, Will Wilcox, and Derek Fathauer. None of them have exactly lit up this PGA TOUR, so this is not a case of MUST OWN due to Web domination. I would sit back and watch how the debut goes and think about investing in future events.

Brendan Steele… Threw his name into the mix last week on a course he’s traditionally sucked on. Now he heads to an event which he’s 0-for-2 but nothing since 2013. Could be something in the category of “course doesn’t fit eye” but it might just be a small sample of two missed cuts. Should be a solid GPP option this week.

Will Wilcox… His form still isn’t quite there but with top 20s in two trips, Wilcox looks like a good rebound candidate. Make sure to check his Twitter, but it’s probably a week to “SEND IT!”

St. Jude Classic Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.

My Top 25 for the 2016 St. Jude Classic

1. Ryan Palmer

2. Brooks Koepka

3. Dustin Johnson

4. Gary Woodland

5. Francesco Molinari

6. Harris English

7. Phil Mickelson

8. Daniel Berger

9. Cameron Tringale

10. Charles Howell III

11. Retief Goosen

12. Luke Donald

13. Ben Martin

14. David Toms

15. Will Wilcox

16. David Hearn

17. Brendan Steele

18. Colt Knost

19. Tom Hoge

20. Luke List

21. Chad Campbell

22. Camilo Villegas

23. Boo Weekley

24. Thomas Aiken

25. Russell Henley