Scottish Open Fantasy Preview
After nailing the French Open, it’s time to keep the momentum rolling into Scotland.
The top 5 in my power rankings last week finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 11th. Talk about going exactly as planned! This week we head to Castle Stuart Golf Links where the golfers will prep for next week’s Open Championship.
The course is a par 72 and just 7,193 yards, pretty short for a par 72 layout. Like always, the Scottish Open features a links-style course, so having a look at past editions will always be helpful. In particular, this week’s venue was used in 2011, 2012, and 2013.
The 2011 version was rain-shortened as they could only manage 54 holes due to heavy rains. That helped the course play extremely easy, but they didn’t really need that help. This venue has played more than a stroke under par (field average RTP) each of the three visits. With generous fairways, the only real defense is weather. There are some heavy winds in the forecast but I still expect this things to be a cakewalk compared to next week at Royal Troon.
Players to Watch
Branden Grace… We’ve got a links course and it’s being played overseas, Grace is the man for the job! He finished runner-up to Phil here last time Castle Stuart hosted (2013) so we know the course fits his eye. Don’t overthink this one. Perfect Course Fit + Past History at Course + Great Form. Bingo!
Shane Lowry… Disappointing title defense last week but he still managed to post the fifth-best birdie or better percentage in the field at Firestone. If he can avoid some of those big numbers this week, he looks like a strong candidate to bounce back in a big way. Just like Grace above, you should fire up Lowry anytime the word links is mentioned!
Phil Mickelson… Returns as the defending champ at this venue. He may not be the first name you think of when links-style venues become the topic of conversation. Regardless, his crafty style of play and aggressive tendencies make him a great DK play whenever course history doesn’t lead you away from him. I’m thinking we should see a top 15 this week with plenty of birdies on his scorecard.
Graeme McDowell… I can’t remember the last time I’ve played G-Mac with confidence, but I really like the setup for him this week. It’s a coastal, links layout which is right up his alley. He doesn’t actually enjoy playing in tough weather conditions, but he’s better at it than most, so that’s always a plus to have at any links-style venue. I give him two Phil Mickelson thumbs up this week.
Hao Tong Li… Early on in his young career, he’s shown incredible ability to post the low rounds (beat the field average by 2+ strokes in any given round) but also avoid the disaster rounds. In fact, his ratio of boom-to-bust rounds is very similar to Branden Grace and Henrik Stenson, very good company to be in! I think he could really become a force once he gets some reps on these courses, worldwide.
Nino Bertasio… Let us down last week but he’s been an ATM ever since DK launched Euro Tour. I’m ready to forgive last week and jump right back in. Same goes for Chris Hanson who is also criminally underpriced on DraftKings.
Thongchai Jaidee… Compared him to Jim Furyk last week due to his consistency week-to-week and then he goes out and wins the dang tournament. After winning last week at Le Golf National (a very tough course) he now takes on a very easy Castle Stuart. Should be good for a cut made, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last week’s fireworks.
Ricardo Gouveia… He’s my darkhorse of the week, that has shocking consistency for how little he’s even mentioned. He’s beat the field average (in terms of scoring average) in 13 of his last 17 starts (72%). That means, even his MCs are close, and he’s rarely imploding. To put that in perspective, golfers like Chris Wood and Martin Kaymer have beat the field average in 66% of their starts and cost more than $10K this week. I’m not saying Wood or Kaymer are bad plays this week (they have huge upside) but Gouveia could be a really nice bargain-bin play.
Russell Knox… He’s at the very bottom of the top 25 but he possesses plenty of upside. I worry about his putting abilities in a potential shootout that may breakout at Castle Stuart. If the you think the weather makes the course play tougher this week, this I would bump Knox up the lsit. Same goes for J.B. Holmes who currently sits at #26 on my rankings.
Scottish Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet!
My Top 25 for the 2016 Scottish Open
1. Branden Grace
2. Shane Lowry
3. Henrik Stenson
4. Phil Mickelson
5. Graeme McDowell
6. Nicolas Colsaerts
7. Luke Donald
8. Patrick Reed
9. Chris Wood
10. David Lingmerth
11. Gregory Bourdy
12. Martin Kaymer
13. Chris Hanson
14. Hao Tong Li
15. Ross Fisher
16. Nino Bertasio
17. Thongchai Jaidee
18. Ricardo Gouveia
19. Alex Noren
20. Soren Kjeldsen
21. Thomas Pieters
22. Matthew Fitzpatrick
23. Mikko Korhonen
24. Bradley Dredge
25. Russell Knox
