Josh Culp's Blog, page 14

Desert Dubai Classic Fantasy Preview

Staying in the Middle East, the European Tour heads to Dubai to take on Emirates GC.

Looking at the performances lists below, we’ll notice that it’s very similar to last week’s event setup, except for the lack of course length that we saw at Abu Dhabi. Some of the shorter hitters should be able to flash back into contention this week.

There is a funny link with this event and Masters winners with Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia being the last two winners here. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that, but for what it’s worth, Emirates and Augusta National have the same course length score in my spreadsheets and they also both have Bermuda with overseeded rye fairways. Still likely just a coincidence but there are a few reasons why success could translate across the two courses.

We also have some pretty clear-cut course fits this week AKA the class of the field just like last week. There are 7 golfers that check all four boxes below, which is easily the most. There is basically a giant top-tier bubble this week with the field thinning out dramatically after the top 10 or 15 golfers.

Let’s see who pops:

Top Performers on Bermuda Greens (since 2015)

Rory Mcilroy

Bernd Wiesberger

Byeong Hun An

Branden Grace

Henrik Stenson

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Tommy Fleetwood

Sergio Garcia

Top Performers on Par 72s (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson

Rory Mcilroy

Branden Grace

Byeong Hun An

Bernd Wiesberger

Sergio Garcia

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Ross Fisher

Soren Kjeldsen

Top Performers in the Middle East (since 2015)

Rory Mcilroy

Byeong Hun An

Branden Grace

Henrik Stenson

Bernd Wiesberger

Tyrrell Hatton

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Martin Kaymer

Sergio Garcia

Jeunghun Wang

Top Performers in Strong Fields (since 2015)

Rory Mcilroy

Henrik Stenson

Byeong Hun An

Branden Grace

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Bernd Wiesberger

Ross Fisher

Soren Kjeldsen

Tommy Fleetwood

Golfers that show up on all FOUR lists: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Branden Grace, Martin Kaymer, Bernd Wiesberger, Byeong Hun An, Tyrrell Hatton

Golfers that show up on 3-of-4 lists: Sergio Garcia

Golfers that show up on 2-of-4 lists: Tommy Fleetwood, Ross Fisher, Soren Kjeldsen

My Top 25 for the 2018 Desert Dubai Classic

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Henrik Stenson

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Byeong Hun An

5. Branden Grace

6. Bernd Wiesberger

7. Tyrrell Hatton

8. Martin Kaymer

9. Rafa Cabrera Bello

10. Ross Fisher

11. Tommy Fleetwood

12. Matthew Fitzpatrick

13. Louis Oosthuizen

14. Soren Kjeldsen

15. Shubhankar Sharma

16. Lee Westwood

17. Joost Luiten

18. Ian Poulter

19. Paul Dunne

20. Dylan Frittelli

21. Hao Tong Li

22. Andy Sullivan

23. Alexander Bjork

24. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

25. Alexander Levy

Abu Dhabi Championship Fantasy Preview

The European Tour is now off and running after a warmup event in South Africa. They head to the Middle East this week for the Abu Dhabi Championship.

This field is loaded with big names like Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Rose, along with plenty of other stars.

The golf course, Abu Dhabi GC, is a par 72 that stretches out to nearly 7,600 yards. There is plenty of course history to look at, playing the role of host since the inaugural 2006 edition.

Past champions include Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, Martin Kaymer (x3), and Paul Casey (x2). Less notable winners include Gary Stal, Pablo Larrazabal, Jamie Donaldson, and Robert Rock.

Keeping it pretty simple with just four angles, let’s see who plays well on similar setups:

Top Performers on Bermuda Greens (since 2015)

Rory Mcilroy

Byeong Hun An

Bernd Wiesberger

Justin Rose

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Branden Grace

Henrik Stenson

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Joost Luiten

Top Performers on Long Courses (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Henrik Stenson

Byeong Hun An

Rory Mcilroy

Bernd Wiesberger

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Ross Fisher

Martin Kaymer

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Thongchai Jaidee

Top Performers in the Middle East (since 2015)

Rory Mcilroy

Byeong Hun An

Branden Grace

Bernd Wiesberger

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Henrik Stenson

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Justin Rose

Joost Luiten

Top Performers in Strong Fields (since 2015)

Rory Mcilroy

Byeong Hun An

Henrik Stenson

Branden Grace

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Bernd Wiesberger

Justin Rose

Ross Fisher

Soren Kjeldsen

Golfers that show up on all FOUR lists: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Branden Grace, Martin Kaymer, Bernd Wiesberger, Byeong Hun An

Golfers that show up on 3-of-4 lists: Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton, Rafa Cabrera Bello

Golfers that show up on 2-of-4 lists: Joost Luiten, Ross Fisher

My Top 25 for the 2018 Abu Dhabi Championship

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Justin Rose

3. Dustin Johnson

4. Branden Grace

5. Henrik Stenson

6. Paul Casey

7. Tyrrell Hatton

8. Bernd Wiesberger

9. Byeong Hun An

10. Matt Kuchar

11. Martin Kaymer

12. Rafa Cabrera Bello

13. Ross Fisher

14. Matthew Fitzpatrick

15. Tommy Fleetwood

16. Hao Tong Li

17. Lee Westwood

18. Joost Luiten

19. Alexander Bjork

20. Shubhankar Sharma

21. Soren Kjeldsen

22. Andy Sullivan

23. Paul Dunne

24. Thorbjorn Olesen

25. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

BMW South African Open Fantasy Preview

The Euro Tour returns from a little break this week. The first event upon return is the BMW South African Open held at Glendower GC in South Africa.

The course is a par 72 that stretches out past 7,500 yards. Playing at 5,000 feet of altitude, the course is still on the longer side but will not play as long as the scorecard suggests.

With this long of a layoff, it’s hard to gauge form. I won’t be too picky, but if I haven’t seen anything decent in the last four months, I will gladly pass. If you see someone rank highly on the stats below but they don’t show up in my top 25, it’s probably safe to assume it’s a form concern.

If you remember my previews from last year, I had a correlated course section. I am still rounding up all the data to make it automated but for now, I will only dive deep on the bigger events. For now, we can look at similar course attributes and see who fits the eye test…

Keeping it pretty simple with just four angles, let’s see who plays well on similar setups:

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Soren Kjeldsen

Chris Wood

Andy Sullivan

Charl Schwartzel

Richard Sterne

Thomas Aiken

Gregory Bourdy

Richard Bland

Mikko Korhonen

Top Performers on Long Courses (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Charl Schwartzel

Thomas Aiken

Gregory Bourdy

Soren Kjeldsen

Chris Wood

Jordan SMITH

Andy Sullivan

Trevor Fisher Jr.

Dean Burmester

Top Performers in Africa (since 2015)

Charl Schwartzel

Branden Grace

Thomas Aiken

Trevor Fisher Jr.

Dean Burmester

George Coetzee

Mikko Korhonen

Richard Sterne

Matthieu Pavon

Graeme Storm

Top Performers on Par 72s (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Chris Wood

Charl Schwartzel

Soren Kjeldsen

Thomas Aiken

Gregory Bourdy

Richard Sterne

Andy Sullivan

Dylan Frittelli

Jordan SMITH

Golfers that show up on all FOUR lists: Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Thomas Aiken

Golfers that show up on 3-of-4 lists: Soren Kjeldsen, Chris Wood, Gregory Bourdy, Richard Sterne, Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on 2-of-4 lists: Dean Burmester, Jordan Smith, Mikko Korhonen, Trevor Fisher, Jr.

My Top 25 for the 2018 SA Open

1. Branden Grace

2. Charl Schwartzel

3. Soren Kjeldsen

4. Richard Sterne

5. Andy Sullivan

6. Dylan Frittelli

7. Dean Burmester

8. Gregory Bourdy

9. George Coetzee

10. James Morrison

11. Matthieu Pavon

12. Graeme Storm

13. Thomas Detry

14. Mikko Korhonen

15. Matt Wallace

16. Jamie Donaldson

17. Brandon Stone

18. Erik van Rooyen

19. Aaron Rai

20. David Drysdale

21. Nacho Elvira

22. Ricardo Gouveia

23. Ashley Chesters

24. Jason Scrivener

25. Haydn Porteous

Joburg Open Fantasy Preview

The European Tour heads to South Africa for the final event of the calendar year.

The Joburg Open takes place in the Johannesburg area, as the courses are nestled in a housing development at 5,000 feet above sea level. A massive field of 240 golfers will take on a pair of courses before the top 65 and ties will play the weekend at the Firethorn Course. Good luck getting 6-of-6 through on DraftKings! This is not the usual venue for this event, so don’t dive too deep into the course history.

The Firethorn Course will host three of the rounds this week. It is a par 72 that stretches out to 7,595 yards but like I already mentioned it’s played at a similar elevation as Denver so the course will play much shorter than that. With kikuyu grass from tee-to-green and bentgrass greens, past experience playing in South Africa will be key since those grasses are the norm around here.

Check out Dave Tindall’s Preview for more on the importance of familiarity in the area. The course is very tree-lined, as you can see in the photo below, without a ton of water in play.

As a part of The Open Qualifying Series, the top 3 golfers (not previously qualified) will earn a ticket to The 2018 Open Championship. This is also the first time it’s been tri-sanctioned by the Euro Tour, Sunshine Tour, AND the Asian Tour. That means the Asian Tour Order of Merit narrative has a bit of life left in it, with just one more event after this one to decide the final Order of Merit winner. Gavin Green could lock up his crown just by playing the weekend in South Africa while someone else could vault their name up the list with a win. King Khongwatmai or Jazzy J are the two that come to mind. Both currently inside the top 10 on the Order or Merit.

Courses/events that could be potential pointers: Gary Player Course (Nedbank), Pretoria (Tshwane), Glendower (SA Open), Royal Johannesburg (normal Joburg venue), and Crans Sur Sierre (Omega Euro Masters).

Keeping it pretty simple with just four angles plus correlated courses, let’s see who plays well on similar setups:

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Thomas Aiken

Louis Oosthuizen

Mikko Korhonen

James Morrison

Dean Burmester

George Coetzee

Dylan Frittelli

David Drysdale

David Howell

Aaron Rai

Top Performers against Weak Fields (since 2015)

Thomas Aiken

George Coetzee

Louis Oosthuizen

Mikko Korhonen

Dean Burmester

Dylan Frittelli

Matt Wallace

Ashun Wu

David Howell

David Drysdale

Top Performers in Africa (since 2015)

Thomas Aiken

George Coetzee

Dean Burmester

Louis Oosthuizen

Mikko Korhonen

Romain Langasque

Joel Stalter

Keith Horne

Dylan Frittelli

Jacques Blaauw

Top Performers during the Fall Season (since 2015)

Dylan Frittelli

George Coetzee

Louis Oosthuizen

David Drysdale

Darren Fichardt

Thomas Aiken

Anders Hansen

Mikko Korhonen

Matt Wallace

Justin Walters

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Dean Burmester

Thomas Aiken

Jacques Blaauw

Louis Oosthuizen

Justin Walters

George Coetzee

Darren Fichardt

David Howell

James Morrison

Mikko Korhonen

Golfers that show up on all FIVE lists: Louis Oosthuizen, George Coetzee, Thomas Aiken, Mikko Korhonen

Golfers that show up on 4-of-5 lists: Dylan Frittelli, Dean Burmester

Golfers that show up on 3-of-5 lists: David Drysdale, David Howell

My Top 25 for the 2018 Joburg Open

1. Louis Oosthuizen

2. George Coetzee

3. Dylan Frittelli

4. Dean Burmester

5. Thomas Aiken

6. Mikko Korhonen

7. Matt Wallace

8. Shubhankar Sharma

9. David Drysdale

10. Gavin Green

11. Anders Hansen

12. Ashley Chesters

13. Jacques Blaauw

14. James Morrison

15. Aaron Rai

16. Darren Fichardt

17. Keith Horne

18. Carlos Pigem

19. Jazz Janewattananond

20. Phachara Khongwatmai

21. Adilson da Silva

22. Justin Walters

23. Daniel Brooks

24. Romain Langasque

25. Erik van Rooyen

Australian PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

While the PGA TOUR has packed their bags for the holidays (at least in terms of official events) the European Tour is still going strong.

In fact, we have a dual-tournament week but DraftKings has chosen the Australian PGA Championship, so that is what I will look at.

As you can tell from the name of the event, we are in Australia this week, set to take on a 7,364 yard, par 72 layout. Just five miles from the coast, winds can wreck havoc at the drop of a hat. That happened last year as we saw the field average 75.5 strokes, nearly three shots higher per round than the year before.

The field is highlighted by a few superstars but the field strength drops off dramatically after the top 5-to-10 golfers.

I’m not enamored by many course correlations this week but a few that pop on the spreadsheet include: BMW PGA Championship, Hong Kong, Nedbank, Open de France, and Lyoness Open.

Let’s see who plays well on similar event setups:

Top Performers on Bermuda Greens (since 2015)

Sergio Garcia

Harold Varner III

Andrew Dodt

Jason Scrivener

Richard Green

Mikko Ilonen

Sam Brazel

Ashley Hall

Ryan Fox

Joakim Lagergren

Top Performers against Weak Fields (since 2015)

Harold Varner III

Wade Ormsby

Jason Scrivener

Chris Hanson

Thomas Detry

Joakim Lagergren

Sergio Garcia

Chris Paisley

Tom Lewis

Mikko Ilonen

Top Performers on Hard Courses (since 2015)

Sergio Garcia

Harold Varner III

Chris Hanson

Lasse Jensen

Tom Lewis

Ashley Hall

Marcus Fraser

Wade Ormsby

Andrew Dodt

Jason Scrivener

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Sergio Garcia

Harold Varner III

Marc Leishman

Joakim Lagergren

Jason Scrivener

Robert Karlsson

Marcus Fraser

Lasse Jensen

Andrew Dodt

Mikko Ilonen

Top Performers on Par 72s (since 2015)

Sergio Garcia

Harold Varner III

Marc Leishman

Thomas Detry

Joakim Lagergren

Adam Scott

Chris Hanson

Wade Ormsby

Marcus Fraser

Ryan Fox

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Marc Leishman

Ryan Fox

Sam Brazel

Marcus Fraser

Simon Khan

Thomas Detry

Andrew Dodt

Lasse Jensen

Jason Scrivener

Chris Paisley

Golfers that show up on all SIX lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Sergio Garcia, Harold Varner III, Jason Scrivener

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Andrew Dodt, Joakim Lagergren, Marcus Fraser

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Marc Leishman, Wade Ormsby, Ryan Fox, Lasse Jensen, Chris Hanson, Thomas Detry, Mikko Ilonen

My Top 25 for the 2018 Australian PGA Championship

1. Sergio Garcia

2. Harold Varner III

3. Marc Leishman

4. Joakim Lagergren

5. Thomas Detry

6. Adam Scott

7. Andrew Dodt

8. Cameron Smith

9. Jason Scrivener

10. Wade Ormsby

11. Rhein Gibson

12. Chris Hanson

13. Lasse Jensen

14. Ryan Fox

15. Curtis Luck

16. Sam Brazel

17. Tom Lewis

18. Matthew Griffin

19. Ashley Hall

20. Chris Paisley

21. Marcus Fraser

22. Jonas Blixt

23. Sean Crocker

24. Mikko Ilonen

25. Brett Rumford

Hero World Challenge Fantasy Preview

The wait is over! Tiger is set to return this week for a home game at the Hero World Challenge, an unofficial money event that hosts 18 of the world’s best down in The Bahamas.

While the event won’t pad anyone’s FedExCup totals, golfers will receive OWGR points, which is nice for someone like Tiger who has been out of action for so long. Just by playing in an event with this field strength, he will take a nice leap up the rankings, not that OWGR matters all that much. If he returns to any resemblance of his old self he will easily soar up those rankings.

Other than Tiger, golfers like Justin Rose, Ian Poulter, Adam Scott, and Ernie Els have also bought homes in the area. Only Rose and Tiger are in the field this week. Ernie Els is notable still, since his design company is responsible for the creation of this week’s host course.

The course, Albany, is a par 72 that stretches out to 7,309 yards. It’s a desert-links mix that almost looks like a video game creation. A very unique look in terms of mixing desert landscape, fescue, and extremely green grass.

The course is also unique in terms of course layout. First, there is no rough. If you miss the fairways then you’re hitting from the native area. Unlike the traditional par 72, there are actually five par 5s in addition to five par 3s. There are a few Euro Tour events that feature a similar setup, but I can’t think of any regular PGA TOUR stops that have that kind of hole orientation.

With five par 5s, that means plenty of scoring chances. Last year’s winner Hideki Matsuyama racked up 22 birdies and a pair of eagles en route to an 18-under 270 aggregate. He played the par 5s at 15-under on the week, without a single blemish on those lengthy holes. Clearly, it’s no walk in the park as he also swallowed four bogeys and a pair of doubles on the rest of the course.

Being right near the coast, even the slightest breeze could potentially cause trouble on this wide-open layout. As you can tell from the picture above (click for bigger picture), there are sand dunes and shrubbery/fescue but not many trees to protect from the wind.

Players to Watch

Jordan Spieth… Finished 6th here last year as he couldn’t avoid the big numbers (three doubles). Is arriving fresh from Australia where he snuck inside the top 10 despite showing a lot of rust on the greens. Spieth said he struck the ball great (better than his previous trips to Australia) but lost boatload of strokes on the greens. Sound like an easy fix for one of the world’s best putters. The Spring Break Crew is no stranger to golf in The Bahamas. Would not be shocking to see some kind of Spieth-Thomas-Fowler combination on the podium this week.

Brooks Koepka… Arrives with a WIN and RUNNER-UP in his last two worldwide starts, JUST LIKE LAST YEAR. He turned that into a mediocre T13 here, but I think he improves upon that this week. A big fan of links golf and a true beast on the par 5s.

Tiger Woods… The Tiger hype machine is clicking on all cylinders, especially after the Faxon Fake News spread about Tiger outdriving DJ on half the holes in their recent match with Donny Trump. Last year Tiger racked up 24 birdies here but also swallowed SIX DOUBLES. Playing in a semi-home-game this week, Tiger has the comfort factor. He also has way more motivation to succeed than the rest of the field who is just using this to pick up a nice Christmas bonus.

Justin Rose … The other “local” in the field, Rose is flying in straight from Hong Kong. He joked on social media that he should walk in the door around 4:45 a.m. Monday to be ready for an 8:00 a.m. range session. Despite the local knowledge he’s mustered up a 13th place and a WD. Last year he was still milking an injury so the WD can be ignored. Just added an Asian Tour event to his December schedule, so there is no burnout (yet) for the Englishman.

Tommy Fleetwood … Arrives with a lot of good play on his CV the past few months. Now he’ll take on a links layout which should be right up his alley. Have him ranked inside the top 10 in Euro Tour links performance over the last three years. Getting married in two weeks so will his attention be pulled elsewhere this week? That’s the fun/difficultly in handicapping golf. A win would certainly cap off a stellar year for the Race to Dubai champ.

Henrik Stenson… With such a small field, there is no reason to risk WD given his recent injury. Actually, I lied, if it’s midweek and it looks like no one will own Stenson on DraftKings then he’s worth a look. Would be 5th in my ranks if there were no injury concerns.

My Top 18 for the 2018 Hero World Challenge

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Justin Rose

4. Brooks Koepka

5. Justin Thomas

6. Hideki Matsuyama

7. Rickie Fowler

8. Matt Kuchar

9. Tommy Fleetwood

10. Francesco Molinari

11. Patrick Reed

12. Tiger Woods

13. Alex Noren

14. Henrik Stenson

15. Daniel Berger

16. Kevin Chappell

17. Kevin Kisner

18. Charley Hoffman

Hong Kong Open Fantasy Preview

The 2017 European Tour season is in the books and they are wasting no time in starting the 2018 campaign.

The gang heads to Asia to kick things off. There is a surprising pool of talent teeing it up this week as Masters champ Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose co-headline a field that already includes Tommy Fleetwood, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Matthew Fitzpatrick.

Similar to the fall events on the PGA TOUR, we also get to see the latest crop of Challenge Tour grads. Chase Koepka will draw the attention of Americans gamers but there is loads of talent attempting to make the leap. Keep an eye on the homepage of Rotoworld as Matt Cooper has a graduate feature in the works that should help us get acquainted. There is even a guy named Tapio(ca) Pulkkanen who I’m dying to learn more about.

The course this week is just 6,700-ish yards so it is one of the shortest venues we’ll see all year. The list of past champions here is exactly who you’d expect to see on a plodder’s track with the likes of Ian Poulter, Gregory Bourdy, Paddy Harrington, Miguel Angel Jimenez (x4), and Freddie Jacobson hoisting the hardware. We shouldn’t completely rule out the bombers, though, since Rory, Rose, and Hend have all lifted the trophy in Hong Kong, as well.

What do the pros say about the course?

DAVID LIPSKY: Firm and fast. You have to really control your ball around here. It’s not a bomber’s course by any means, so that sort of suits me. But I love it.

PAUL PETERSON: You know, it’s relatively tight which suits me, because I’m not the longest guy in the world. It benefits good putters, so I’ve just always felt like I underachieved a little bit out here a little bit.

JUVIC PAGUNSAN: I think this course, you know, if you hit it hit straight, good putting, maybe can score very good on this course.

TOMMY FLEETWOOD: I love courses like this. This is honestly one of the best courses I’ve played on Tour. Just shows, you don’t have to have length.

IAN POULTER: Yeah, definitely. I like the golf course. Fanling suits my game. It’s not all about length; it’s about position in play off the tee. I positioned it pretty well around the golf course today. Didn’t miss many fairways and gave myself some opportunities.

When you’ve shot low rounds on this golf course in the past, you know your lines, you know where you want to be putting from. So yeah, it was nice to get back out there on the course.

ANIRBAN LAHIRI: Absolutely. I love playing narrow, tight courses and Fanling is about as tight as you’ll get. It’s great when you have to think and navigate, and I really enjoy that.

MATTHEW FITZPATRICK: It’s quite tight. You don’t want to go in the rough. Just got to think about what you do off the tee and stuff. It’s a good course, and like I say, it was on my schedule at the start of the year because people say you’ll enjoy it, and so far I have.

PATRICK REED: It’s something completely different than I’m used to. It’s real short, but at the same time, if you try to play aggressive, which is very easy to do because any time you’re always hitting 3-woods or irons off the tee, you’re antsy to hit that driver. It would get you in trouble. So kind of one of these places where it teaches you to be patient and try to play your own game.

I guess we could say this week is all about the three Ps: POSITION, PATIENCE, and PUTTING.

Looking at course style, time of year, and what not, the following courses/events graded out as potential pointers: Omega Euro Masters, Made in Denmark, True Thailand Classic (Black Mountains), Bad Greisbach (2015 & 2016 Euro Open), and the Alfred Dunhill Links.

It may not be the first name you think of when it comes to short tracks but Scott Hend has the most podium finishes on those courses since 2015 (4) including a win at the True Thailand Classic. I will list some others who pop on correlated courses but first, let’s look at the top-10 lists for a few key angles this week…

Top Performers on Bermuda Greens (since 2015)

Justin Rose

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Sergio Garcia

Thongchai Jaidee

Jeunghun Wang

Tommy Fleetwood

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Harold Varner III

Alejandro Canizares

Jorge Campillo

Top Performers in Asia (since 2015)

Thongchai Jaidee

Hao Tong Li

Justin Rose

Marcus Fraser

Scott Hend

Tommy Fleetwood

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Jorge Campillo

Gregory Bourdy

David Lipsky

Top Performers on Short Courses (since 2015)

Sergio Garcia

Paul Dunne

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Robert Rock

Julian Suri

Alejandro Canizares

Wade Ormsby

Matthew Fitzpatrick

David Lipsky

Jorge Campillo

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Justin Rose

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Sergio Garcia

Tommy Fleetwood

Thongchai Jaidee

Dylan Frittelli

Paul Dunne

Harold Varner III

Julian Suri

Top Performers on Par 70s (since 2015)

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Thongchai Jaidee

David Howell

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Scott Hend

Alejandro Canizares

Robert Rock

David Lipsky

Justin Rose

Jamie Donaldson

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Scott Hend

Thongchai Jaidee

Matthew Fitzpatrick

James Morrison

David Lipsky

Gregory Havret

Paul Dunne

Joakim Lagergren

Julian Suri

Tommy Fleetwood

Golfers that show up on all SIX lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Thongchai Jaidee

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Rafa Cabrera Bello, David Lipsky

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Sergio Garcia, Julian Suri, Paul Dunne, Alejandro Canizares, Scott Hend, Jorge Campillo

My Top 25 for the 2017 Hong Kong Open

1. Justin Rose

2. Matthew Fitzpatrick

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Julian Suri

5. Rafa Cabrera Bello

6. Tommy Fleetwood

7. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

8. Paul Dunne

9. Hao Tong Li

10. David Lipsky

11. Dylan Frittelli

12. Thongchai Jaidee

13. Jorge Campillo

14. Alexander Bjork

15. Aaron Rai

16. Jeunghun Wang

17. Alejandro Canizares

18. Gregory Bourdy

19. Scott Hend

20. Harold Varner III

21. Thomas Aiken

22. Robert Rock

23. Marcus Fraser

24. Jamie Donaldson

25. Wade Ormsby

DP World Tour Championship Fantasy Preview

The European Tour season comes to an end this week in Dubai.

The small field of 60 golfers will take on a monster Jumeirah Golf Estates layout. It’s a par 72 course that stretches out past 7,600 yards.

Despite all that length, driving distance has not proven to be a necessity. Guys like Francesco Molinari, Luke Donald, and Ian Poulter have all excelled here. Perhaps that’s due to roughly 100 bunkers littering the course. Also, two of the par 5s are 620 yards or longer, so they are likely true three-shotters regardless of length.

In doesn’t make a lot of sense on paper but if someone with advanced knowledge of the course made an argument that the layout actually favors the shorter hitters, I wouldn’t argue, based on who I see atop the list of course horses.

The field has averaged 70.6 strokes per round since the inaugural 2009 edition. The event features 60 of the top golfers on the Euro Tour, but still, that’s an walk in the park. We should expect more low scores this week.

Looking at course lengths, grass types, location, difficulty, etc. there were five events that popped off the page: Turkish Airlines, Abu Dhabi, Alfred Dunhill Links, Qatar Masters, and the Omega Dubai.

On top of those correlated courses, I will also venture through the record books to see who has the most success on the following angles below. Branden Grace flew off the page last week and he looks like another strong play this week. However, he has competition at the top of the event-fit chart. Find out who that is below…

Top Performers on Bermuda Greens (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Branden Grace

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Justin Rose

Tyrrell Hatton

Joost Luiten

Martin Kaymer

Alex Noren

Peter Uihlein

George Coetzee

Top Performers in the Middle East (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Branden Grace

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Joost Luiten

Chris Wood

Peter Uihlein

Victor Dubuisson

Thorbjorn Olesen

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Francesco Molinari

Bernd Wiesberger

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Alex Noren

Soren Kjeldsen

Ross Fisher

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Peter Uihlein

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Tyrrell Hatton

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Victor Dubuisson

Branden Grace

Soren Kjeldsen

Bernd Wiesberger

Justin Rose

Chris Wood

Tommy Fleetwood

Charl Schwartzel

Top Performers on Par 72s (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Bernd Wiesberger

Alex Noren

Sergio Garcia

Francesco Molinari

Martin Kaymer

Chris Wood

Tyrrell Hatton

Charl Schwartzel

Ross Fisher

Top Performers on Long Courses (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Alex Noren

Victor Dubuisson

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Jeunghun Wang

Ross Fisher

Bernd Wiesberger

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Charl Schwartzel

Martin Kaymer

Top Performers on Easy Courses (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Justin Rose

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Chris Wood

Francesco Molinari

Tommy Fleetwood

Branden Grace

Shane Lowry

Alex Noren

Victor Dubuisson

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger

Tyrrell Hatton

Branden Grace

Martin Kaymer

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Alex Noren

Ross Fisher

Chris Wood

Andy Sullivan

Joost Luiten

Golfers that show up on all EIGHT lists: Branden Grace, Bernd Wiesberger

Golfers that show up on 7-of-8 lists: NONE

Golfers that show up on 6-of-8 lists: Alex Noren, Tyrrell Hatton, Martin Kaymer

Golfers that show up on 5-of-8 lists: Chris Wood, Rafa Cabrera Bello

Golfers that show up on 4-of-8 lists: Ross Fisher, Victor Dubuisson

My Top 25 for the 2017 DP World Tour Championship

1. Branden Grace

2. Bernd Wiesberger

3. Tyrrell Hatton

4. Justin Rose

5. Francesco Molinari

6. Martin Kaymer

7. Sergio Garcia

8. Rafa Cabrera Bello

9. Alex Noren

10. Jon Rahm

11. Charl Schwartzel

12. Chris Wood

13. Patrick Reed

14. Ian Poulter

15. Ross Fisher

16. Shane Lowry

17. Matthew Fitzpatrick

18. Soren Kjeldsen

19. Joost Luiten

20. Lee Westwood

21. Julian Suri

22. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

23. Tommy Fleetwood

24. Thorbjorn Olesen

25. George Coetzee

The RSM Classic Fantasy Preview

The PGA TOUR fall schedule comes to an end this week as the TOUR preps for The RSM Classic down in Georgia.

Given the time of year (and daylight available) the event uses TWO COURSES before the cut, allowing them to manage a larger field and give more Web.com Tour graduates one final chance to improve their spot in the reshuffle.

The primary host course is the Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club. It will be played three times this week. It’s a short, par-70 coastal layout with Bermuda greens and is considered to be a links-style layout. This course has played the role of host since the inaugural 2010 edition. It was only two years ago that they added the second course so they could expand the field size.

The second course, which will be played just once, is the Plantation Course at Sea Island Golf Club. It’s a parkland style track that is more protected by the winds but also has smaller greens. It would be the tougher of the two courses for that reason, except it’s a par 72 which has led to field average scoring of -1.19 and -2.24 under par in the two editions it’s been used. That’s really easy.

Similar to last week, these courses do not really allow you to overpower them. Let’s hear from some of the players to see how they describe these courses:

“I am kind of a plodder, and I feel like it just sets up well for me.” -David Hearn

The golf courses change a lot from when we’re playing at home just beating around with the guys that live here, so it’s definitely a different golf course but same venue. – Hudson Swafford

“I’ve never really pictured it as a course that I would win on or play well on. I struggled here in college always during the SECs, but I think the work that I’ve done with Scott, my teacher, is helping drive the ball a lot better and that’s one of the big keys out here.” -Chris Kirk

“I think it [experience] really helps with the greens because the greens a lot of them are elevated and they slope off pretty severe. So knowing where to hit it according to where the pin is on the green is very important.” -Michael Thompson

“I just like the atmosphere, being on the water, having the steady breeze.” – Michael Thompson

“It’s a golf course that relies on the weather, the conditions, the wind to be the teeth. And anybody could play a great round out there, whether you hit it long or short, and I think really comes down to who approaches it well and makes putts.” -Brendon Todd

“I think the local knowledge helps tee to green just not being uncomfortable with some of those tee shots where you’re having to carry hazards, put it in between a bunker and a hazard” -Brendon Todd

As you can tell from above, this is a venue where shorter hitters can contend since many of the holes force you to club down to take trouble out of play. It becomes an iron, wedge, and putting contest from there. Pretty similar to the last few weeks, actually, other than the change in grass types and cooler temperatures.

The weather is it’s main defense so keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to Thursday, especially the wind forecast. Speaking of weather, this area got hit by Hurricane Irma earlier this year leading to a course closure for nearly three weeks. It’s unclear if that will have any lasting impact on how easy or hard the course will play this year. Keep an eye out for pre-tournament quotes about the playing conditions.

There is a large population of PGA TOUR pros that call Sea Island home. They are known as the SEA ISLAND MAFIA. It used to be that any student of Todd Anderson (previous instructor at the local performance center) was at a big advantage but he’s now moved onto TPC Sawgrass. Another key link is Randy Myers, who is the fitness instructor for a lot of the Sea Island Mafia. Give him a follow on Twitter or Instagram if you want to see who some of his students are. It is very likely those students call this week a home game, travel here frequently, or can at least talk to Myers to hear about the current course conditions and maybe get some local knowledge in that regard. Some of those current or past names include: Zach Johnson, Kevin Kisner, Brandt Snedeker, J.T. Poston, Braden Thornberry, Keith Mitchell, Davis Love III, Brian Harman, Trey Mullinax Jonathan Byrd, Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover, and even last week’s winner Patton Kizzire.

Courses that graded out as potentially correlated include: Harbour Town, Sedgefield CC, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Summerlin, and Colonial. That is three of the same courses from last week, so if anyone found themselves in contention in Mexico, they should be a name to watch this week as well.

Check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more tournament history and golfer quotes.

Players to Watch

Webb Simpson… From a per round perspective, Simpson is #1 at this event (minimum 10 rounds) so he clearly likes the layout of the Seaside Course. Also enters with top 20s in six of his last seven starts. BINGO.

Charles Howell III… Has gained the most strokes at this event (total, not per round) and is arriving off a strong weekend performance at the OHL Classic. I have the top four golfers this week all graded out within fractions of each other, but CH3 certainly has my full attention.

Ollie Schniederjans… I made my DFS lineups early last week which means I had to rework over 50% of them once Ollie backed out early last week. Yup, I was heavily invested in the hatless wonder. Don’t have any information on his WD but it’s promising that he’s already back in action. Another very strong course fit this week, so I’m jumping right back on the train. Finished T6 here last year.

Bill Haas … Has posted under-par rounds in 15-of-16 here at The RSM Classic. That has led him to a runner-up finish and three other top 35s. He picked up 19 birdies here last year, including 8 birdies in R2. Always gets a boost when the competition is weak and the course allows or forces you to club down.

Kevin Kisner … A perfect course fit but hasn’t pegged it since the Presidents Cup. That gives him a slight, slight downgrade for me, but he still cracks my top 5. Obviously he’s very comfortable here, posting four top 30s in six starts including a win in the 2016 edition.

Jamie Lovemark… Even though the course limits a distance advantage, Lovemark clearly likes what he sees when it comes to sightlines here. In two appearances here he’s posted a pair of top 10s, gaining 7.5 strokes approaching-the-green and another 3.6 strokes off-the-tee. A little surprising given his tendency to spray the ball, but the course history suggests he can contend here again.

Keith Mitchell… Before the season started, I had Mitchell circled as a potential sleeper for this event. He remains a sleeper as a member of the Sea Island Mafia but I am less excited than I was a few months ago when he was showing stellar form on the Web.com Tour. To start the season he’s hit less fairways than the field in all four starts and hit less greens than the field in all four starts. Without the form and without the course fit, I’m going to look elsewhere this week. Maybe next year.

J.T. Poston… Another member of the Sea Island Mafia, but unlike Mitchell, Poston has a great course fit. He disappointed in his debut here last year but he was still finding his legs on the PGA TOUR at that time. This time around he arrives without full TOUR status but much better form. After posting back-to-back top 15s at the Shriners and OHL, the Postman should be delivery plenty of birdies this week.

Luke Donald… Didn’t show much pop last season except of course at the RBC Heritage. That is one of the top correlated courses I’m looking at this week, a venue where Donald has posted SEVEN podium finishes in his career. Also has a runner-up at Sedgefield, another venue I’m looking at. Posted a T36 in his debut here last year but I’m expecting something even better the second time around.

My Top 25 for the 2018 RSM Classic

1. Webb Simpson

2. Charles Howell III

3. Kevin Kisner

4. Bill Haas

5. Ollie Schniederjans

6. Matt Kuchar

7. J.J. Spaun

8. Zach Johnson

9. Jamie Lovemark

10. Graeme Mcdowell

11. Russell Knox

12. Luke Donald

13. Brian Harman

14. J.T. Poston

15. Patton Kizzire

16. Kevin Streelman

17. William McGirt

18. Scott Brown

19. Byeong Hun An

20. Si Woo Kim

21. Jason Kokrak

22. Chris Kirk

23. Chesson Hadley

24. Hudson Swafford

25. Martin Laird

Nedbank Golf Challenge Fantasy Preview

The Euro Tour heads to South Africa for this week’s Nedbank.

The course is a 7,800+ yard beast of a track that is slightly tamed due to playing in 3,700 feet of altitude. Looking further, it’s a par 72 with bentgrass greens. With six par 4s over 450 yards and all four par 3s over 200 yards, long iron play will be crucial.

Looking at course lengths, grass types, location, difficulty, etc. the following events showed up as possible pointers: Alfred Dunhill Championship (Leopard Creek), BMW PGA Championship, DP World Tour Championship, Qatar Masters, Czech Masters, and the Lyoness Open.

On top of those correlated courses, I will also venture through the record books to see who has the most success on the following angles…

Spoiler Alert: A certain South African might have the best course fit of anyone since I’ve started doing these top-10 lists.

Top Performers on Bentgrass Greens (since 2015)

Francesco Molinari

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Soren Kjeldsen

Branden Grace

Chris Wood

Martin Kaymer

Tyrrell Hatton

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Ross Fisher

Top Performers in Africa (since 2015)

Charl Schwartzel

Branden Grace

Dean Burmester

Victor Dubuisson

George Coetzee

Paul Dunne

Anthony Wall

Jeunghun Wang

Alex Noren

Alexander Bjork

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Francesco Molinari

Bernd Wiesberger

Tyrrell Hatton

Alex Noren

Martin Kaymer

Chris Wood

Ross Fisher

Soren Kjeldsen

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Tyrrell Hatton

Chris Wood

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Soren Kjeldsen

Victor Dubuisson

Bernd Wiesberger

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Branden Grace

Tommy Fleetwood

Charl Schwartzel

Top Performers on Par 72s (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Bernd Wiesberger

Alex Noren

Chris Wood

Francesco Molinari

Tyrrell Hatton

Martin Kaymer

Ross Fisher

Charl Schwartzel

Soren Kjeldsen

Top Performers on Long Courses (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Jeunghun Wang

Alex Noren

Ross Fisher

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Bernd Wiesberger

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Victor Dubuisson

Chris Wood

Charl Schwartzel

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Branden Grace

Chris Wood

Joost Luiten

Francesco Molinari

Charl Schwartzel

Alex Noren

Bernd Wiesberger

Soren Kjeldsen

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on all SEVEN lists: Branden Grace

Golfers that show up on 6-of-7 lists: Alex Noren, Bernd Wiesberger, Chris Wood

Golfers that show up on 5-of-7 lists: Charl Schwartzel, Soren Kjeldsen

Golfers that show up on 4-of-7 lists: Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Ross Fisher

My Top 25 for the 2017 Nedbank Golf Challenge

1. Branden Grace

2. Chris Wood

3. Tyrrell Hatton

4. Soren Kjeldsen

5. Bernd Wiesberger

6. Ross Fisher

7. Francesco Molinari

8. Matthew Fitzpatrick

9. Alex Noren

10. Charl Schwartzel

11. Ian Poulter

12. Kiradech Aphibarnrat

13. Tommy Fleetwood

14. Rafa Cabrera Bello

15. Shane Lowry

16. Paul Dunne

17. Martin Kaymer

18. Julian Suri

19. Thorbjorn Olesen

20. Peter Uihlein

21. Lee Westwood

22. Richard Sterne

23. Nicolas Colsaerts

24. Joost Luiten

25. Jeunghun Wang