Anndy Lian's Blog

Anndy Lian advocates using BNB for animal shelter support

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian advocates using BNB for animal shelter support

Anndy Lian has announced a donation to a private animal shelter in Xian, China. This contribution is facilitated using BNB, underscoring his support for the cryptocurrency.

Lian expressed gratitude towards the team at Blockcastcc, Redecentralise, Jenny Zheng, AnndyFund, and a collaborator, Noel, for their efforts. Additionally, he acknowledged a typographical error in a prior post, encouraging others to join in using BNB.

 

 

Lian’s recent philanthropic gesture highlights not only the growing influence of cryptocurrency in charitable giving but also mirrors trends seen during periods of heightened market uncertainty. Earlier, similar shifts in crypto user behavior were evident when MEXC faced frozen withdrawals and declining trading volumes, prompting a reevaluation of digital asset reliability. Additionally, as underlying market liquidity remains a decisive factor for both trading and philanthropy, Lian’s perspective on the approaching liquidity crisis offers further context to this latest donation, underscoring the interconnected nature of crypto markets and broader economic developments.

 Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/953496-bnb-animal-shelter/

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Crypto’s triple threat: Exchange hack, technical rejection, and Fed policy fog

Anndy Lian
Crypto’s triple threat: Exchange hack, technical rejection, and Fed policy fog

The crypto market’s 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours reflects a convergence of distinct yet interlocking pressures: security vulnerabilities, technical resistance, and macroeconomic ambiguity. All of this unfolds against the backdrop of a quiet US holiday week. While the broader seven-day trend remains in positive territory at plus 4.26 per cent, the short-term retracement underscores the fragility of risk sentiment in an environment where liquidity thins, correlations tighten, and geopolitical shocks reverberate through digital asset markets with amplified force.

This week’s bearish tilt lies in the Upbit hack, a stark reminder that even regulated, institutionally backed exchanges remain high-value targets for sophisticated threat actors. On November 27, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency platform confirmed a theft of US$30.4 million in digital assets, with early forensic evidence pointing squarely to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. This attribution carries weight not only because of its geopolitical implications but also due to the group’s notorious track record of targeting crypto infrastructure to fund regime activities.

The market’s immediate reaction, a plunge into Extreme Fear as measured by the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 20, demonstrates how legacy concerns about custody and exchange security continue to haunt an asset class striving for mainstream legitimacy. Investors responded by rotating capital toward perceived safe havens within the crypto universe, notably Bitcoin, whose dominance rose to 58.61 per cent. This flight to relative stability highlights a recurring pattern. When trust in centralised intermediaries erodes, decentralised base-layer assets often benefit, even if only temporarily.

Compounding this security-driven caution was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. For days, US$92,000 had served as a critical psychological and structural resistance level. The failure to sustain a breakout above this threshold triggered a cascade of algorithmic sell orders, resulting in US$20.41 million in liquidations, predominantly short positions caught off guard by the initial dip but unable to recover as momentum faded. Technical indicators further reinforced the bearish undertone. While the 14-day RSI at 42.63 remains technically neutral, it shows a clear loss of upward momentum, slipping from overbought territory earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, though still positive at plus 20.24 billion, presents a troubling divergence. Price action contradicts the bullish signal implied by the indicator, suggesting a weakening of buyers’ conviction. Compounding the issue, derivatives open interest fell by nearly 5 per cent, signalling that leveraged traders are stepping back, a classic sign of risk aversion ahead of major macroeconomic events.

This brings us to the third pillar of today’s market dynamics: macro correlation and policy uncertainty. Despite the US equity markets being closed for Thanksgiving, crypto did not trade in isolation. Its seven-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100, measured via the QQQ ETF, has surged to an unusually tight 0.92. This near-perfect linkage means that even in the absence of US equity trading, crypto remains hostage to the same macro narratives driving tech stocks, namely, the path of Federal Reserve policy. Recent US jobs data came in stronger than expected, tempering market expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

While UOB still anticipates a 25 basis point reduction at the December 17 FOMC meeting, the probability has softened from near-certainty to approximately 85 per cent. This shift matters deeply for crypto, which has increasingly functioned as a risk-sensitive asset class. The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, dropping to just US$21 million on November 26 compared to US$128 million on prior high-volume days, reflects institutional hesitation. With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout period this weekend through December 12, 2025, traders are left to navigate a policy vacuum, relying on lagging indicators and thin holiday liquidity to set prices.

That thin liquidity has magnified market volatility. Total 24-hour trading volume across major exchanges fell by 21.5 per cent, a typical seasonal pattern during US holidays, but one that exacerbates price swings when large orders enter the market. In such environments, even modest sell pressure, whether from hacked assets being offloaded or leveraged positions unwinding, can trigger outsized moves. This dynamic is particularly acute in crypto, where market depth remains shallower than in traditional equities or FX markets, despite growing institutional participation.

Within this short-term turbulence, structural undercurrents remain supportive. The broader macro environment still points toward impending monetary easing. Bond markets signal renewed appetite for fixed income, with UOB noting that spread widening has made quality bonds attractive again, a precursor to rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar has held steady, and Asian currencies are gaining modest ground, buoyed by easing trade tensions and a stable Chinese yuan. These factors create a more favourable external backdrop for risk assets, including crypto, once the immediate fog of uncertainty lifts.

Looking ahead, three variables will dictate the market’s next directional move. First, developments in the Upbit investigation could either calm nerves if authorities confirm containment and recovery efforts or deepen panic if stolen funds begin circulating widely. Second, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the 89,080 dollar level, which corresponds to the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally, will serve as a critical technical support.

A breakdown below this level could invite further liquidations and test deeper support zones. Third, and most importantly, Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will offer the clearest signal yet on whether December’s anticipated rate cut remains on track. A softer print would likely reignite risk appetite across equities, bonds, and crypto alike, while a hotter-than-expected reading could extend the current period of caution.

In sum, today’s dip is not a reversal of trend but a recalibration, a moment of hesitation amid overlapping uncertainties. The crypto market, now deeply enmeshed in the global macro framework, cannot escape the gravitational pull of Fed policy, tech sector sentiment, or geopolitical risk. Its resilience over the past week, despite the Upbit breach and technical rejection, suggests underlying demand remains intact.

The challenge for market participants lies in distinguishing transient noise from structural shifts. In a world where digital assets increasingly mirror traditional financial cycles, patience and precision will determine who navigates this transitional phase most successfully.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-triple-threat-exchange-hack-technical-rejection-and-fed-policy-fog-20251128/

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Anndy Lian: Crypto liquidity crisis approaches decisive December moment

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian: Crypto liquidity crisis approaches decisive December moment

December marks a crucial period for the crypto liquidity crisis, according to Anndy Lian. He observes that while traditional markets are beginning to price in easing by the Federal Reserve, the cryptocurrency sector remains on edge.

The fear persists amid dwindling liquidity and significant outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling potential challenges for the market ahead.

 

 

Such turbulence in the digital asset landscape draws parallels to previous episodes, notably when exchanges faced withdrawal freezes and sharp volume declines, compounding investor uncertainty. Furthermore, shifts in sentiment—such as those observed within the memecoin community—underscore the market’s sensitivity to evolving preferences and liquidity conditions.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/944178-crypto-liquidity-crisis/

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Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Anndy Lian
Fed rate cut odds hit 85 per cent: Here’s how stocks, crypto, and gold are reacting

Market movements have shaped a complex but increasingly hopeful outlook across both traditional and digital asset markets, primarily fuelled by evolving expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Central to this momentum is a mounting belief that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. Financial markets now place an 84.9 per cent likelihood on a 25 basis point reduction at the December FOMC meeting. This shift in sentiment has ignited a widespread rally, pushing equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies higher in a coordinated risk-on surge that underscores how tightly asset prices are now linked to macroeconomic signals.

The labour market data released on November 26 provided critical fuel for this optimism. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and coming in well below the median forecast of 226,000. This third consecutive weekly decline signals continued resilience in the employment sector, but in the current environment where inflation appears to be moderating and growth concerns linger, the market interpreted the report as dovish. This interpretation aligns with UOB’s ongoing forecast of a 25 bps cut in December, now seemingly corroborated by real-time market pricing.

Equity markets responded enthusiastically. On Wednesday, November 26, the S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.8 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7 per cent, with technology stocks leading the charge. The gains extended a four-day winning streak in a holiday-shortened week, underscoring investor confidence in a pivot toward looser monetary conditions.

Notably, the US market closed early in observance of Thanksgiving, leaving Asian markets to carry the momentum into the next trading session. This global transmission of sentiment was evident in South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 2.67 per cent on November 26 to close at 3,960.87, its strongest single-day advance in weeks. Regional indices across Asia followed suit, reinforcing a strategic tilt toward non-US value and mid-cap equities as sources of alpha, particularly in technology and dividend-yielding sectors.

Fixed-income markets reflected a more cautious recalibration. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held steady at approximately 4.00 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged slightly higher to 3.47 per cent, resulting in a 10Y-2Y spread of about 53 basis points. This modest flattening suggests that while near-term rate expectations are shifting, longer-term inflation and growth concerns remain anchored. Nevertheless, the widening spread between equities and bonds is beginning to make fixed income more attractive, prompting institutional investors to accumulate high-quality bonds in anticipation of a Fed pivot gradually. The relative stability of the 10-year yield amid equity rallies suggests the bond market is not fully pricing in aggressive easing but remains open to modest cuts if inflation data cooperate.

Currency and commodity markets further validated the risk-on narrative. The US dollar weakened broadly, with Asian currencies like the Korean won and Singapore dollar strengthening as the expected narrowing of the Fed-Asia yield differential reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. Brent crude oil edged higher to US$63.04 per barrel, supported by expectations that lower interest rates could stimulate global demand. Even more striking was gold’s ascent to US$4,163.51 per ounce, a 0.8 per cent increase that reaffirmed its role as a defensive hedge amid monetary uncertainty. Gold’s performance, up nearly 58 per cent year-to-date, reflects not just inflation hedging but also a broader loss of confidence in fiat monetary regimes, a theme that resonates deeply in the cryptocurrency space.

Speaking of crypto, the digital asset market rallied 2.5 per cent over the 24 hours ending November 27, reclaiming a market capitalisation near US$3.07 trillion, a key Fibonacci retracement level. This rebound emerged from a state of extreme fear, as measured by sentiment indicators, and closely tracked the Nasdaq’s gains, with a 24-hour correlation of plus 0.84. Three interlocking forces drove this recovery.

First, technical indicators signalled a classic oversold bounce. Bitcoin’s RSI-14 had dipped to 36.09, bordering on oversold territory, while the MACD histogram turned positive, reflecting a shift in momentum. This setup was amplified by a short squeeze; US$74 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 87 per cent attributed to short sellers. Such dynamics often accelerate upward price action as forced buying meets opportunistic dip-buying.

Second, Ethereum witnessed significant off-exchange accumulation. On-chain data from Santiment showed a 49 per cent weekly decline in ETH exchange reserves, equivalent to roughly US$4 billion in value. This movement suggests large holders, whales, and institutions are withdrawing supply from liquid markets, tightening available float, and reducing immediate sell pressure. The trend was reinforced by BlackRock’s ETH ETF, which recorded US$92.6 million in inflows on November 24, its first positive flow in two weeks. This institutional re-engagement, occurring just as ETH tests the 3,000-dollar resistance level, points to strategic positioning ahead of potential macro catalysts.

Third, macro tailwinds provided the overarching narrative. With an 85 per cent market-implied probability of a December rate cut, risk assets across the board benefited from renewed liquidity expectations. However, sustainability remains uncertain. Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, a metric comparing daily miner revenue to its 365-day average, stands at 0.67, above historical bear market bottoms but not yet signalling undervaluation. This suggests that while the macro backdrop is supportive, crypto-specific fundamentals have not yet reached a point of compelling long-term value.

In conclusion, today’s rally is a fragile synthesis of technical relief, institutional accumulation, and macro optimism. The alignment between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq, has turned digital assets into a high-beta proxy for Fed policy expectations. This very correlation exposes crypto to reversal if incoming data, such as the US PCE inflation report, contradicts rate-cut assumptions. Should the Fed deliver as expected, the stage may be set for a sustained recovery. But without improvements in on-chain fundamentals, network activity, user adoption, and real yield generation, the rally may prove ephemeral, a mere leveraged echo of traditional market sentiment rather than a foundation for a new paradigm.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-rate-cut-odds-hit-85-per-cent-heres-how-stocks-crypto-and-gold-are-reacting-20251127/

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December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

Anndy Lian
December’s make-or-break moment for crypto’s liquidity crisis

Equities and fixed income have rallied on mounting confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its December FOMC meeting. This expectation is reinforced not only by softening consumption data and declining consumer confidence but also by the accelerating political momentum behind Kevin Hassett as the leading candidate to assume the Fed chairmanship. Markets interpret Hassett’s likely appointment as a signal of a more responsive, disinflation-conscious policy framework, thereby pricing in an earlier and potentially deeper easing cycle than previously anticipated.

This macro recalibration is evident across multiple asset classes. US Treasury yields have declined modestly yet meaningfully, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.004 per cent, reflecting a repricing of terminal rate expectations. Concurrently, the US dollar has weakened, providing tailwinds for Asian currencies, which have strengthened amid a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional central banks, stable onshore Chinese liquidity conditions, and reduced geopolitical friction following the Xi-Trump dialogue. Chinese equities, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, have rallied in response, indicating that risk capital is already rotating toward markets perceived to offer both valuation support and policy tailwinds.

Despite this broad-based improvement in traditional risk sentiment, digital asset markets remain entrenched in a state of acute pessimism. The CMC Fear and Greed Index stands at 15 out of 100, categorically Extreme Fear, unchanged over the past 24 hours and only marginally above its yearly nadir of 10 recorded on November 22. This persistent fear is notable not for its intensity alone but for its durability in the face of improving macro fundamentals elsewhere.

The total crypto market capitalisation of 3.03 trillion dollars remains below both its 7-day 2.97 trillion dollars and 30-day 3.34 trillion dollars simple moving averages, confirming a technically bearish posture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has plunged to 27.4, the lowest level since April 2025, signalling exhaustion in the prevailing downtrend. Historical precedent suggests that such oversold conditions, particularly when coinciding with shifts in macro liquidity, often precede short-term mean-reversion rallies.

Complicating the interpretation of this dislocation is the anomalous behaviour in crypto derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, perpetual futures volume surged 25.5 per cent to 1.3 trillion dollars, while spot volume contracted by 14.1 per cent to 268 billion dollars. This divergence typically indicates heightened speculative activity absent genuine conviction in directional price movement.

Supporting this interpretation, open interest in perpetual contracts declined by 1.89 per cent to 785 billion dollars, and funding rates collapsed by over 5,000 per cent to a negligible 0.0013 per cent. These metrics collectively suggest that traders are engaging in low-leverage, short-duration positioning rather than establishing sustained long or short exposure. The derivatives market is active, but it is not committed.

The central constraint on crypto market performance remains liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of 28 billion dollars this month, draining a critical source of structural demand precisely when macro liquidity conditions are most fragile. Until these flows stabilise or reverse, or until the Federal Reserve explicitly shifts to a more accommodative stance, crypto markets are likely to remain range-bound and sentiment-constrained.

The three trillion dollar market cap threshold has emerged as a key psychological and technical support level. A sustained breach below this mark could trigger algorithmic and leveraged liquidations, exacerbating downside pressure. A hold above this floor in conjunction with a dovish Fed decision could catalyse a significant liquidity-driven relief rally.

Kevin Hassett’s emergence as the presumptive next Fed Chair amplifies the probability of such an outcome. As Director of the National Economic Council since early 2025, Hassett has consistently advocated for a monetary policy that responds proactively to weakening demand indicators. His potential leadership signals a pivot toward a more traditional Taylor-rule-oriented framework, which would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in the event of further softening in labour or consumption data. For digital asset markets, which historically exhibit high beta to shifts in global liquidity conditions, this scenario represents a pivotal inflexion point.

In conclusion, the current market environment reflects a transitional regime characterised by divergent sentiment across asset classes. Traditional markets have already priced in near-term Fed easing, supported by both data and institutional expectations. Crypto markets, by contrast, remain mired in extreme fear despite being technically oversold and exhibiting heightened but uncommitted speculative activity. The critical variable bridging this gap is liquidity, which hinges on two near-term catalysts: the Fed’s December policy decision and the trajectory of Bitcoin ETF flows.

Should the Fed deliver a dovish pivot, particularly under Hassett’s anticipated stewardship, it would likely resolve the current sentiment dislocation and re-anchor crypto valuations to a more favourable macro liquidity regime. Until then, tactical positioning should emphasise monitoring these liquidity signals rather than assuming directional conviction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/decembers-make-or-break-moment-for-cryptos-liquidity-crisis-20251126/

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A House Of Cards Built On Bitcoin: Why Strategy Inc. Can’t Outrun Its 90-Day Clock

Anndy Lian
A House Of Cards Built On Bitcoin: Why Strategy Inc. Can’t Outrun Its 90-Day Clock

Let me begin by saying this. I have nothing against Bitcoin, but did see flaws in the treasury model. I have also voiced that out in an earlier article, too.

There is a certain seduction in the story of Strategy Inc., the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, that has bewitched investors, pundits, and even seasoned crypto natives for years. On the surface, it appears to be a grand corporate embrace of digital gold: a publicly traded entity hoarding Bitcoin not as a speculative side bet, but as a strategic treasury reserve. In a world drowning in fiat inflation and institutional timidity, Strategy Inc. seemed to offer a rare act of conviction, a bold bet on a post-fiat future. But look closer, and the illusion evaporates. The company reported just 54 million dollars in cash on hand, yet faces more than 640 million dollars in annual preferred dividend obligations. Its legacy software business, once the engine of its existence, remains cash-flow negative. There is no internal engine generating the capital needed to sustain its promises. Instead, Strategy Inc. has built a financial house of cards powered entirely by external capital markets, one that only functions so long as investors are willing to keep buying in.

And for a while, they did. From January through September 2025 alone, the company raised 19.5 billion dollars, not to buy more Bitcoin, but to refinance existing debt. This is not innovation. It is recursion. It is a system where new equity and debt issuances are used to pay dividends to prior investors. The only reason this did not feel like a Ponzi scheme was that Strategy’s stock consistently traded at a significant premium to its Bitcoin net asset value. At a 2x premium, every new share issuance effectively increased per-share Bitcoin ownership for existing holders, a virtuous loop that masked the underlying insolvency of the model. But that premium has now vanished. As of late 2025, Strategy trades roughly at par with its Bitcoin net asset value. The magic is gone. Issuing new shares no longer enriches existing shareholders. It dilutes them.

This shift is catastrophic for a model that depends entirely on perpetual capital inflows. Without a premium, there is no arbitrage advantage to issuing equity. Without equity issuance, there is no way to fund those monstrous preferred dividends, especially now that management has raised the dividend rate from 9.0 percent in July to a jaw-dropping 10.5 percent by November. This is not confidence. It is panic. The structure includes no cap on the dividend rate, meaning that every time the common share price dips below 100 dollars, the yield automatically ratchets higher to attract buyers. It is a feedback loop of compounding desperation: lower price, higher yield, greater capital burn, greater pressure on price. The math is accelerating toward a cliff.

The most immediate existential threat is not market sentiment or macro volatility. It is mechanical. On January 15, 2026, MSCI will implement a rule change excluding any company with more than 50 percent of its assets in digital currency from its indices. Strategy Inc. holds 77 percent of its balance sheet in Bitcoin. This is not a judgment call. It is a binary, algorithmic exclusion. JPMorgan estimates the delisting could force passive funds to dump 2.8 billion dollars in Strategy stock immediately. If other index providers follow suit, the total outflows could swell to 8.8 billion dollars. In a stock where 15 to 20 percent of its market cap is already tied to algorithmic strategies that trade on technicals rather than fundamentals, such a forced selloff could trigger a death spiral.

We got a preview of this vulnerability on October 10, 2025. In just 14 hours, Bitcoin dropped 17 percent, order book depth evaporated by 90 percent, and 19 billion dollars in leveraged positions were liquidated across the ecosystem. The event laid bare a fundamental truth: Bitcoin’s market, for all its headline size, remains structurally shallow. The notion that Strategy Inc. could offload 1 billion dollars of Bitcoin annually without moving the market is pure fantasy, shattered not by theory but by real-time data. If the company is forced to sell even 100,000 of its 649,870 coins to meet obligations, it would not just depress the price. It could ignite a systemic cascade, especially if leveraged players interpret the sale as a signal of institutional capitulation.

This is not a critique of Bitcoin, far from it. Bitcoin, as a decentralized, censorship-resistant, apolitical monetary network, remains as compelling as ever. It will likely outlive Strategy Inc., the Federal Reserve’s current chair, and possibly even the dollar’s global reserve status. The issue is not the asset. It is the attempt to graft Bitcoin’s infinite time horizon onto a corporate entity bound by quarterly earnings, SEC disclosures, and 90-day liquidity windows. Sovereign treasuries have operated for centuries. Corporations operate on credit cycles. You cannot run a company like a nation-state, especially when that company has no real operating income and is leveraged to the hilt on a volatile asset.

Strategy Inc.’s entire thesis rests on the assumption that capital markets will remain infinitely accommodating, that investors will always be there to buy newly issued shares or bonds to fund its preferred dividends. But markets are not infinite. They are cyclical, emotional, and brutally efficient at exposing leverage masquerading as strategy. The moment the premium disappeared, the model broke. The moment the index exclusion became inevitable, the countdown began.

We will know the outcome by March 2026. Either Strategy Inc. will be forced into a humiliating restructuring, slashing its preferred dividend, selling Bitcoin at a loss, and retreating into a shadow of its former self, or it will collapse entirely, taking with it the credibility of the entire corporate Bitcoin treasury narrative. Some will call it bad luck. Others will blame macro headwinds. But the truth is simpler: this was never sustainable. It was a high-risk financial structure dressed in the language of conviction, powered by recursive capital raises and investor FOMO.

The data is public. The mechanics are transparent. The outcome is not uncertain. It is mathematically inevitable. What remains is our collective willingness to finally see the 48 billion dollar illusion for what it is: not a visionary bet on Bitcoin, but a self-reinforcing error that mistook leverage for legacy, and market timing for strategy. In the end, Strategy Inc. will not be remembered as a pioneer of digital treasury management. It will be remembered as the cautionary tale of what happens when financial engineering masquerades as principle, and when a company confuses a bull market for a business model.

 

Additional Notes:

– Reduce digital assets to 49% to stay in the indices

– Sell short-term, hold long-term

– If the biggest treasury fails, the snowball sell effect

– If the biggest treasury fails, what about the rest of the treasuries

– Additional funding

 

 

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/Opinion/25/11/49059248/a-house-of-cards-built-on-bitcoin-why-strategy-inc-cant-outrun-its-90-day-clock

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Anndy Lian: Nasdaq jumps 2.7 percent as rate cut bets surge

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian: Nasdaq jumps 2.7 percent as rate cut bets surge

The Nasdaq saw a sharp rise of 2.7 percent, buoyed by growing expectations of impending rate cuts. This boost in the market indicates investor confidence following economic signals pointing towards potential monetary easing.

Anndy Lian noted that while tech stocks and cryptocurrencies are currently experiencing a rebound, underlying weaknesses in the crypto sector suggest that caution may still be warranted. The sentiment reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining stability amidst volatile market conditions.

 

 

The current optimism in equity and digital asset markets stands in contrast to persistent vulnerabilities, particularly in the crypto space. Recent upheavals, such as exchange disruptions and liquidity concerns highlighted during the period of frozen withdrawals and declining volumes at MEXC, underscore the need for ongoing vigilance. Additionally, shifting investor sentiment bears resemblance to the preference changes within the memecoin community that Anndy Lian previously analyzed, suggesting that underlying market dynamics remain in flux despite short-term rallies.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/938355-nasdaq-jumps-rate-cut/

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Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Anndy Lian
Nasdaq jumps 2.7 per cent on rate cut bets: What comes next for tech stocks and crypto

Global markets staged a modest but meaningful rebound this week, driven primarily by growing optimism that the US Federal Reserve may finally pivot toward interest rate cuts as early as its December meeting. Risk sentiment improved across asset classes, with equities leading the charge, especially in the technology sector, while bonds regained some lustre as yields declined. The US dollar held steady, gold remained flat, and crude oil prices edged higher amid evolving geopolitical narratives.

In parallel, the cryptocurrency market posted a 0.88 per cent gain over the past 24 hours, pulling back from a steep 3.81 per cent weekly loss. Though encouraging, this rebound remains tenuous, supported more by technical relief and macro speculation than by strong fundamental or institutional demand.

US equities surged on Monday, with the Nasdaq climbing 2.7 per cent, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.6 per cent gain and the Dow Jones’ modest 0.4 per cent rise. The performance underscores the tech-heavy market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations. The rally stems from signals that several Federal Reserve officials now lean dovish, raising the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December.

Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) explicitly reaffirmed this expectation, adding credibility to the narrative. For investors, the implication remains clear: maintain exposure to high-quality US equities while selectively rotating into non-US value and mid-cap stocks to capture alpha. This strategy acknowledges both the leadership of American tech and the potential for relative outperformance in undervalued international markets.

Bond markets reacted in lockstep with equity optimism. US Treasury yields slipped, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.035 percent and the 2-year yield at 3.503 percent. The widening spread between short- and long-dated yields suggests growing confidence in a soft landing scenario, where inflation eases without triggering recession.

For fixed income investors, this shift marks a critical inflection point. Bonds are regaining their role as a defensive asset class, and positioning ahead of the anticipated Fed easing cycle appears prudent. Accumulating high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate debt now could yield attractive real returns once policy rates begin their descent.

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar stabilised, holding its ground as global investors weighed divergent central bank trajectories. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened further, sliding amid ongoing concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the USD/JPY pair approaches the psychologically critical 160 level.

Tokyo has already spent billions defending the yen this year, and market participants remain on high alert. This dynamic creates a unique risk-reward asymmetry in yen trades, where upside potential is capped by intervention fears, even as interest rate differentials continue to pressure the currency lower.

Commodity markets reflected a mix of geopolitical caution and macro caution. Brent crude ticked upward as traders assessed the implications of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a development that could reduce risk premiums in an already well-supplied oil market.

Meanwhile, gold ended flat at US$2,135.90 per ounce, maintaining its role as a defensive hedge rather than a momentum-driven asset. Its price stability suggests that while investors are not rushing into safe havens, they are also not fully abandoning them. The metal’s resilience amid equity rallies signals persistent undercurrents of uncertainty, likely tied to lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical fragility.

In Asia, regional equities posted a partial recovery from last week’s selloff, though performance remained mixed. US futures pointed lower by Tuesday morning, hinting at potential profit-taking or renewed caution. In this environment, the recommended strategy focuses on technology exposure and dividend-paying equities, sectors that offer both growth potential and income stability in uncertain times.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored broader risk sentiment, rising 0.88 per cent in 24 hours after a sharp weekly decline. This move aligns closely with the Nasdaq-100, which crypto now correlates with at 0.91, a testament to its increasing integration into traditional risk frameworks. Three key factors drove this tentative rebound. First, the completion of SWIFT’s migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard on November 22 reignited interest in blockchain-based payment networks that comply with this new global standard.

Ripple’s XRP surged 4.91 per cent over the week, and its spot trading volume jumped 68.87 per cent in 24 hours, reflecting renewed institutional curiosity. While real-world adoption remains gradual, the narrative around regulatory-grade interoperability offers a credible pathway for compliant digital assets to gain traction in cross-border finance.

Second, a short squeeze provided technical relief in crypto derivatives markets. Bitcoin’s funding rate plunged 192 per cent to negative 0.0024 per cent, indicating excessive bearish positioning. As the price dipped toward US$80,000, US$17.5 million in long positions were liquidated, often a sign of forced covering by shorts.

While this created a short-term bounce, the underlying market remains weak, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) of just 25.1, deep in oversold territory but not yet signalling a confirmed reversal. For bulls, reclaiming the 200-day moving average near US$88,000 will be the critical technical hurdle to watch.

Third, macro speculation around Fed policy played a decisive role. Reports from the Wall Street Journal highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some officials now openly supporting a December rate cut. This dovish tilt lifted all risk assets, including crypto. Notably, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs slowed to US$1.2 billion for the week, down from US$1.94 billion the prior week, suggesting that institutional selling pressure may be easing, if only temporarily.

Despite these positive signals, the current rally remains fragile. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at just 15 out of 100, firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory, revealing deep scepticism among retail participants. Moreover, the US$1.2 billion in weekly ETF outflows confirms that institutional investors have not yet returned in force. Without renewed inflows or a clear catalyst, the market risks another leg lower, especially if upcoming economic data contradicts rate-cut hopes.

All eyes now turn to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected print could swiftly dismantle the dovish narrative, reigniting volatility across equities, bonds, and crypto alike. Conversely, a benign reading would reinforce the case for December easing, potentially extending the current rebound.

To sum things up, the market’s recent gains stem from a confluence of technical oversold conditions, regulatory tailwinds from ISO 20022, and macro hopes centred on Fed policy. These drivers lack the depth and breadth needed for a sustained rally. Investors should view this bounce as an opportunity to reassess positioning rather than a definitive turn in trend. Whether Bitcoin can stabilise above US$87,000, or whether equities can maintain momentum without Fed confirmation, will determine whether optimism evolves into conviction or evaporates under the weight of reality.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/nasdaq-jumps-2-7-per-cent-on-rate-cut-bets-what-comes-next-for-tech-stocks-and-crypto-20251125/

 

 

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An Insightful Conversation with Anndy Lian from Singapore – Author of ‘Discovering Singapore By Chance: A Personal Discovery’

Anndy Lian
An Insightful Conversation with Anndy Lian from Singapore – Author of ‘Discovering Singapore By Chance: A Personal Discovery’

At AuthorsWiki, we are privileged to have had the opportunity to connect with Anndy Lian, a Author from Singapore, whose unique voice and creative spirit shine through in their latest work, Discovering Singapore By Chance: A Personal Discovery. Their book, already making waves across leading platforms, invites readers into a world shaped by imagination, experience, and purpose.Anndy Lian is a Singapore-born investor, author, and advisor at the intersection of technology, finance, and public policy. With a career spanning digital transformation, blockchain, and innovation strategy, he has worked closely with listed companies, startups, and government agencies to navigate the evolving landscape of the digital economy. A regular commentator on tech and economic trends, Anndy brings an insider’s perspective to Singapore’s development—shaped by decades of lived experience and professional engagement.In Discovering Singapore By Chance, he co-authors a personal and insightful journey into the heart of his home country, blending his deep institutional knowledge with the fresh eyes of his co-author, Jenny Zheng. Through this collaboration, Anndy offers not just a portrait of Singapore’s systems and successes, but a reflection on national identity, progress, and the quiet marvels of a city-state that continues to reinvent itself.In this conversation, the author opens up about the deeper motivations behind their storytelling, their personal and literary journey, and the lessons they’ve learned along the way. Whether you’re a fan of thoughtful writing or someone looking to understand the creative process, this interview promises valuable insight and inspiration.AuthorsWiki : Apart from writing, what is your occupation for livelihood?Anndy Lian : Apart from writing, my work centers on investing, advisory roles, and driving digital innovation. I am an active investor and blockchain specialist, guiding startups and established companies alike on technology strategy, digital transformation, and the integration of Web3 solutions. Over the years, I’ve served as an advisor to government bodies and international organizations, helping them understand how emerging technologies can be applied meaningfully in the real world.I’ve also held leadership positions and I regularly speak at global conferences on fintech, cryptocurrency, and the future of decentralized systems. My work sits at the intersection of finance, technology, and policy, allowing me to support organizations in navigating the fast-changing digital landscape. This blend of experience has positioned me as a trusted voice and consultant in the evolving digital economy.AuthorsWiki : Tell us something about your first book.Anndy Lian : Blockchain Revolution 2030 was my first book—a forward-looking exploration of how blockchain can power the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Co-authored with Park Young Sook and Shawn Hamnison and published by Kyobo, South Korea’s leading bookstore chain, it quickly drew interest from tech leaders, policymakers, and businesses eager to move beyond the hype.We showed how blockchain extends far beyond cryptocurrency, with the potential to transform finance, healthcare, supply chains, governance, and identity. By combining technical insights with real examples, we highlighted its power to increase transparency, efficiency, and trust.I focused on practical applications in digital assets and fintech, while Park Young Sook contributed policy expertise and Korean market insights, and Shawn Hamnison added a global business perspective. Together, we offered a well-rounded view of the digital future.More than a guide, the book was a call to action—for innovation, smart regulation, and public understanding. It marked the beginning of my mission to make complex technologies accessible—a mission that continues to drive my work, including in Discovering Singapore By Chance.AuthorsWiki : Would you like to tell us about your published books?Anndy Lian : NFT: From Zero to Hero is my solo book and one of my most popular works—a clear, practical guide to the fast-moving world of NFTs. More than a technical manual, it’s a call to action for creators, investors, and visionaries to embrace digital ownership and decentralization.I wrote it to demystify NFTs, taking readers from the basics to real-world uses in art, gaming, identity, and the metaverse. With case studies and actionable insights, it helps readers understand the technology and find ways to participate.Published with Bybit and available on Amazon, the book has sold over 8,000 copies and remains a go-to resource for Web3 newcomers. It reflects my mission to make emerging tech accessible, inclusive, and inspiring for all.AuthorsWiki : Where did you get the inspiration for publishing books?Anndy Lian : My inspiration to write comes from a simple belief: complex ideas should be easy to understand, not locked behind jargon. I started writing because I saw how blockchain and NFTs felt out of reach for most people. I wanted to close that gap—so I used storytelling to make technology relatable.My first book, Blockchain Revolution 2030, aimed to show blockchain’s real potential beyond Bitcoin—how it could transform industries and rebuild trust. It was practical, forward-looking, and meant to inspire action.With NFT: From Zero to Hero, I focused on empowerment. I saw how NFTs gave creators freedom from traditional gatekeepers. I wrote it to be a clear, hopeful guide so anyone could join the digital future.Then came Discovering Singapore By Chance, a personal journey shaped by my co-author Jenny Zheng’s fresh perspective. Her choice to embrace Singapore made me see home differently. The book shares Singapore not as policy, but as a living story.At the heart of my writing is this: knowledge should be shared. My goal is clarity and connection. I write hoping someone will read my words and think: I can understand this. I can be part of this. I can help shape what comes next.AuthorsWiki : How do you manage your time to write a book?Anndy Lian : I see writing as part of my daily thinking, not a separate task. As a busy investor and advisor, I write in small moments—early mornings, commutes, or between meetings. These fragments gradually shape ideas and build chapters.I reserve certain days for deep writing, usually before sunrise, when I can focus without distractions. This is when I turn complex thoughts into clear insights.Collaboration matters. On Discovering Singapore By Chance, my talks with co-author Jenny Zheng became the book’s foundation. Editors Dan Arreola and Nate Lian provided timely feedback, making the process shared and sustainable.I capture ideas as they come—using voice memos or notes—and often speak drafts aloud, then edit them. I write in pieces, following inspiration, and connect them later.Deadlines and public commitments keep me on track. Articles, talks, and posts all feed into my books. Writing is a continuous process of reflection.A book isn’t written in one go. It grows from small, consistent efforts—woven into everyday life.AuthorsWiki : What is your favorite writing method — the one in which you write the most?Anndy Lian : My favorite writing method is voice-to-text thinking. I rarely type at first—instead, I speak my ideas aloud. When a thought comes, I record it on my phone as if explaining it to someone, usually in one go for five to ten minutes. Walking or sitting quietly, I let the idea flow naturally, without worrying about structure.I then use voice-to-text to turn the recording into words. The first draft is rough, with repetition and loose phrasing, but it captures the energy of real thinking. I edit it down, reorganize, and refine until the message is clear.This works best because I think more clearly by speaking. Talking helps me process ideas faster and more honestly than typing. It removes the pressure to be perfect from the start and lets creativity come through.I do this mostly in the morning or right after meetings or travel, when insights are fresh. A single recording can become a full book section. Over time, I collect and shape these pieces into a complete narrative.While I edit directly later, my best writing begins with speaking. For me, voice-to-text isn’t just a tool—it’s how I think, reflect, and create most authentically.AuthorsWiki : When did you start writing, and how did your interest in writing begin?Anndy Lian : I’ve been writing since childhood, starting with school essays and journals. Even then, I found that writing helped me think clearly and express myself. It was never just a task—it was a way to understand and connect.As I moved into technology, finance, and innovation, I began writing articles to simplify complex topics like blockchain and the digital future. I wanted to make these ideas accessible to everyone, not just experts.Over time, I saw how writing extends reach and impact far beyond speeches or meetings. A single piece can travel the world and keep inspiring long after it’s published.What began as schoolwork became a core part of my life. Today, writing is how I learn, share, and contribute—turning ideas into clarity, one word at a time.AuthorsWiki : Is there any special achievement in your life that you would like to share with us and your readers?Anndy Lian : In 2018, I began speaking to government officials about blockchain and crypto, often facing skepticism. I remember one meeting where the look on their faces said it all: Why are we listening to this? Back then, many saw the technology as a fad or a risk.But I believed in its potential to transform finance, identity, and governance. So I didn’t give up. I kept explaining, using real examples and clear language, focusing on trust over hype. Slowly, minds changed—from “Why care?” to “How do we implement this responsibly?”Today, many of those same institutions are advancing digital currencies and smart regulations. Seeing that shift is my proudest achievement. Not because of recognition, but because I stayed committed when few believed.I’m glad I didn’t give up.AuthorsWiki : Are you planning to write or publish a book in the present or future?Anndy Lian : Yes, I’m working on my next book, focused on Web4—the next stage of the internet that combines artificial intelligence, ambient computing, and immersive digital experiences. While Web3 brought ownership through blockchain, Web4 will make technology seamless, intelligent, and deeply integrated into daily life.The book will explore how this shift affects society, business, identity, and creativity, blending real-world examples with practical insights. I want to make Web4 clear and accessible, just as I did with blockchain and NFTs.Still in the early stages, the book aims for release within the next year. This isn’t just a forecast—it’s a roadmap for the future, and my goal remains the same: to help people understand, adapt, and shape what comes next.AuthorsWiki : Would you like to give a message to your readers and fans?Anndy Lian : To all my readers and fans—thank you.Your curiosity and support mean a lot. Every message, every question, every story of how my books helped you understand something new reminds me why I write.I don’t write to impress. I write to connect, to clarify, and to inspire action. If my words have helped you see things differently, then my purpose is fulfilled.Tech and innovation can be overwhelming, but you don’t need to be an expert to be part of the future. Just stay curious, stay open, and take that first step.Keep learning. Keep asking questions. Start small—write, speak, create, explore. Progress begins with action.I’m on this journey with you. There’s more to come—more books, more ideas, more conversations. I hope you’ll stay along, and I’ll keep doing my best to add value, one page at a time.AuthorsWiki : Every writer has their own ideal. Do you also have an ideal writer? And what are your favorite books that you always want to read?Anndy Lian : Every writer is shaped by the books they read, and I’m no exception. While I don’t have one ideal writer, I deeply admire those who make complex ideas simple and empowering rather than flashy. One such influence is Robert Kiyosaki, especially through Rich Dad Poor Dad.That book changed how I see money, assets, and financial freedom. It taught me that true wealth comes from understanding systems, not just working hard. Its lessons on mindset and ownership still guide me, both personally and in my work with blockchain and digital assets.I’m drawn to books that tell stories while delivering insight—those that teach through experience, not theory. I value clarity, honesty, and practical wisdom above all. Whether on finance, innovation, or growth, the books I return to are the ones that shift my perspective and inspire action.Rich Dad Poor Dad remains a constant in my life. It’s not just a read—it’s a reference I live by. And as I write my own books, I carry its core message: the best ideas don’t just inform—they transform.AuthorsWiki : Apart from writing, what are your other hobbies that you enjoy in your free time?Anndy Lian : Outside of writing, I love spending time with people—catching up with friends, meeting new minds, and sharing meaningful conversations over food, laughter, and good company. For me, connection is energizing. Whether it’s a casual coffee, a late-night chat, or a business talk that turns personal, I always come away inspired by the exchange of ideas.One of my favorite rituals? A durian session with close friends. There’s something special about gathering around the king of fruits—laughing at the smell, arguing over whether D24 or Musang King is better, and savoring every rich, creamy bite. It’s messy, bold, and unforgettable—much like life itself.When I’m not writing or working, that’s probably where I’ll be: in good company, surrounded by thorny pods and even thornier debates. It’s my idea of perfect downtime—simple, joyful, and deeply human.AuthorsWiki : Would you like to remain in the writing world in the future as well?Anndy Lian : Yes, I plan to stay in the writing world for the long term. Writing is more than sharing knowledge—it’s how I think, connect, and contribute. Every book, article, or post is a chance to simplify complex ideas and inspire others in tech and society.As long as new ideas emerge—from Web4 to digital identity—I’ll keep writing about them. I want to grow as a storyteller, reach more people, and help others communicate with clarity and courage.Writing is a commitment I’ve made. As long as I have something meaningful to say, I’ll keep putting it on the page.How to Buy Author’s Book-You can buy the author’s book from your favorite e-commerce store-Buy from  Amazon It was a pleasure speaking with Anndy Lian, whose journey and reflections offer a meaningful glimpse into the creative life of a writer. We sincerely thank them for sharing their time and wisdom with the AuthorsWiki community.

 

Source: https://www.authorswiki.com/authors-interview/an-insightful-conversation-with-anndy-lian-from-singapore/

 

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December Fed cut countdown: The 25 basis point move that will reshape every asset class

Anndy Lian
December Fed cut countdown: The 25 basis point move that will reshape every asset class

Financial markets stand at a pivotal intersection where technical pressures, valuation concerns, and shifting monetary policy expectations converge to create both opportunity and risk. The S&P 500 index recently breached key moving averages, though the 200-day moving average remains a robust support level. This technical development suggests short-term volatility remains likely, yet it does not warrant abandoning core equity positions.

Instead, prudent risk management through strategic hedging becomes essential as markets digest mixed signals. Professional fund managers currently maintain exceptionally low cash levels, while exchange-traded funds drive the majority of market flows, creating a paradoxical environment of high liquidity and stretched positioning that could amplify any sudden market reversals.

The concentration of market leadership within the Magnificent Seven technology stocks has begun to show signs of fragmentation, with valuations now trading below 30 times earnings and performance dispersion widening significantly. This development marks a crucial transition point where passive indexing strategies may underperform active stock selection.

Investors must avoid crowded trades and instead focus on selective exposure to genuine outperformers within the technology sector. The recent relief rally across US equities on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 1.1 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining one per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.9 per cent, reflected improving risk sentiment driven by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Market participants now price in a 62 per cent probability of a December rate cut, with UOB economists maintaining their expectation for a 25 basis point reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed will enter its mandatory blackout period from November 29 to December 12, 2025, limiting official communication during this critical decision window.

Fixed income markets responded to these shifting expectations with Treasury yields edging downward, the 10-year note settling at 4.063 per cent, and the 2-year note at 3.507 per cent. This movement signals growing defensive positioning among institutional investors, supporting the strategic case for maintaining duration exposure in the four to five year range. The spread between equity and bond valuations has widened sufficiently to make quality fixed income increasingly attractive as a portfolio diversifier ahead of anticipated Fed easing.

Simultaneously, currency markets exhibited nuanced behaviour with the US dollar gaining strength for the week while the Japanese yen rose sharply on Friday following Japan’s strongest warning yet regarding recent currency weakness. This intervention risk near the 160 yen per dollar level requires close monitoring as currency volatility could spill over into broader market stability.

Commodity markets reflected geopolitical sensitivity with Brent crude oil dipping on prospects of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, while gold maintained its position above the psychologically significant US$4,000 level. Gold’s resilience underscores its continued role as a defensive hedge against market uncertainty, while oil prices remain acutely sensitive to geopolitical developments that could disrupt supply chains.

Asian equity markets declined on Friday as concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations weighed on investor sentiment, though US futures pointed higher at the start of the new week. Within regional allocations, technology exposure combined with dividend-paying stocks appears preferable for maintaining Asian market participation while managing valuation risks.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a modest 1.36 per cent gain over the last 24 hours, rebounding from extreme fear sentiment and oversold technical conditions. However, this recovery appears fragile when viewed against a 6.62 per cent weekly decline and a substantial 19.44 per cent monthly drop. The Relative Strength Index reached an extremely oversold reading of 18.98 before the recent bounce, suggesting technical exhaustion rather than fundamental conviction.

Regulatory developments provided temporary support as Grayscale’s Dogecoin and XRP exchange-traded funds received approval for NYSE Arca listing, scheduled to begin trading on November 24. These approvals, alongside Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF launch and BlackRock’s staked Ethereum ETF filing, signal institutional demand and regulatory progress that temporarily offset broader market anxiety. XRP and Dogecoin outperformed Bitcoin during this period, with XRP gaining 1.58 per cent compared to Bitcoin’s 1.36 per cent rise, though early trading volumes for the new ETF products will determine whether this optimism sustains.

Binance continued to demonstrate ecosystem strength, maintaining its position as the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange with over US$2 trillion in monthly trading volume, representing 41.1 per cent of global crypto trades. BNB token rose 1.35 per cent, supported by ecosystem updates including the CMC20 index token launch on BNB Chain. While Binance’s liquidity depth provides price stability benefits, derivatives trading volume fell 52 per cent over 24 hours, indicating cautious leverage usage among sophisticated traders. This mixed signal highlights the market’s transitional nature, where retail enthusiasm meets institutional caution.

From a global asset allocation perspective, US equities appear relatively expensive compared to international value-oriented strategies that have begun showing strong relative performance. This valuation disparity creates a compelling case for strategic diversification beyond US borders while maintaining exposure to high-quality American companies.

Selective non-US value investments and mid-cap strategies offer opportunities to generate alpha as market leadership broadens beyond the narrow technology concentration that dominated recent years. The combination of reasonable valuations in international markets and attractive entry points in quality fixed income creates a unique opportunity for portfolio rebalancing.

My perspective on this market juncture emphasises cautious optimism tempered by rigorous risk management. The technical breakdown in major indices, combined with stretched positioning metrics, suggests near-term volatility will persist, yet the fundamental case for equities remains intact, given anticipated monetary policy easing.

The widening dispersion within technology stocks represents not a warning sign but rather a healthy maturation of the market cycle where stock selection matters more than sector allocation. The approval of cryptocurrency ETFs marks genuine institutional acceptance, though the asset class remains highly speculative and should represent only a small portfolio allocation for most investors.

The most critical factor for investors remains maintaining discipline amid conflicting signals. The 200-day moving average’s resilience as support for the S&P 500 provides a valuable technical anchor, while the 62 per cent probability of December rate cuts offers fundamental justification for maintaining equity exposure.

However, the extremely low cash levels among professional managers and the dominance of ETF flows create vulnerability to sharp reversals that could test even the strongest support levels. Bond markets offer increasingly attractive risk-reward characteristics as yields remain elevated relative to expected inflation and growth trajectories.

Geopolitical risks continue to influence commodity markets disproportionately, with oil prices sensitive to peace negotiations while gold maintains its safe-haven appeal. Currency markets require particular attention as central bank policies diverge, with the yen’s intervention risk near 160 representing a potential flashpoint for global volatility. Asian markets face the dual challenge of high technology valuations and economic growth concerns, making selective exposure to dividend-paying stocks and established technology leaders more prudent than broad regional bets.

The cryptocurrency market’s fragile recovery underscores the importance of distinguishing between regulatory progress and fundamental value. While ETF approvals represent significant milestones, the 19.44 per cent monthly decline and extremely oversold technical conditions suggest caution remains warranted. Binance’s ecosystem strength provides stability, but the 52 per cent drop in derivatives volume reveals underlying caution that contradicts surface-level price gains.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s December meeting will likely serve as the next major catalyst, with markets already pricing in significant easing. This expectation creates both opportunity and risk, as any deviation from anticipated policy could trigger substantial volatility.

Investors should focus on quality across all asset classes, maintaining core equity exposure while strategically adding high-grade fixed income as yields remain attractive. International diversification offers valuable valuation benefits, particularly in value-oriented strategies that have underperformed during the recent technology-driven rally.

The crossroads markets face today require neither panic nor complacency, but rather thoughtful adaptation to changing conditions. Technical support levels, valuation disparities, and monetary policy expectations all point to a transitional period in which active management and risk-aware positioning will outperform passive approaches.

By maintaining core exposures while hedging downside risks, selectively participating in institutional adoption trends like cryptocurrency ETFs, and diversifying globally toward more attractive valuations, investors can navigate this complex environment while positioning for long-term success. The path forward demands patience and discipline, recognising that market leadership transitions rarely occur smoothly but ultimately create stronger, more sustainable growth foundations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/december-fed-cut-countdown-the-25-basis-point-move-that-will-reshape-every-asset-class-20251124/

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