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CZ to Invest $4.3B DoJ Fine in the US if Refunded Post Pardon

Anndy Lian
CZ to Invest $4.3B DoJ Fine in the US if Refunded Post Pardon

Key NotesChangpeng Zhao says any refunded fine would be used for U.S.investments.Legal experts argue the fine applies to Binance, not CZ personally.CZ’s legal team has publicly rejected the rumors of a crypto payoff for the pardon.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has suggested that if the US government ever returns any portion of the $4.3 billion settlement paid by his company, he would reinvest it back into the American economy. The comment comes after the executive saw a presidential pardon in October.

Zhao acknowledged on X that asking for a refund could be excessive, as he already appreciated the pardon. He confirmed that he had not yet made any such request, but if in case he receives any amount, it would be used to benefit America as a token of gratitude.

 

Will CZ Receive a $4.3B Refund?

The discussion started from a public question posed by blockchain advisor Anndy Lian. Some observers argue that a presidential pardon removes guilt and that the multibillion-dollar penalty no longer stands.

Notably, the $4.3 billion settlement was imposed on Binance as a company for its failure to comply with anti-money laundering and sanctions regulations. A presidential pardon applies to criminal liability, not necessarily to corporate financial settlements.

As a result, many legal analysts are suggesting that the fine still remains legally binding unless challenged and overturned.

Rumors of Crypto Payoff Rejected

Donald Trump’s presidential pardon of CZ has resulted in massive scrutiny. Critics argue that the pardon raises serious questions about conflicts of interest and the fairness of regulatory enforcement.

Many claim that Zhao or Binance secretly paid President Donald Trump in cryptocurrency to obtain clemency. However, Teresa Goody Guillen, who led Zhao’s U.S. defense team, dismissed the allegation during a recent interview with crypto expert Anthony Pompliano.

 

 

Guillen noted that any large crypto transfer would be publicly visible on the blockchain. She added that Zhao has never attempted to buy influence before, during, or after sentencing.

Trump also previously dismissed such rumors, claiming he didn’t know CZ personally. He framed the pardon as correcting an unfair campaign by the previous administration against the crypto industry.

The pardon came after CZ pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating the US Bank Secrecy Act for his exchange’s anti-money-laundering lapses. He served four months in prison and paid a $50 million personal fine.

 

Source: https://www.coinspeaker.com/cz-to-invest-4-3b-doj-fine-in-the-us-if-refunded-post-pardon/

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CZ Claims He Would Reinvest Returned Fine Funds Into the US — but Is a Refund Possible?

Anndy Lian
CZ Claims He Would Reinvest Returned Fine Funds Into the US — but Is a Refund Possible?

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has raised the prospect of the U.S. granting a refund to part of the record-setting $4.3 billion fine the exchange paid authorities last year, telling followers he would reinvest any returned funds back into the country.

The comments came over a year after the disgraced founder was released from custody following a four-month sentence for anti-money-laundering violations.

Although some of CZ’s followers have responded with gratitude, others believe the former founder is simply playing a “long game of diplomacy.”

 

CZ To Refund the U.S.?

Responding on X to a question from blockchain author and commentator Anndy Lian, who asked whether the U.S. might “refund your $4.3 billion since you are pardoned,” Zhao called the issue a “delicate question.”

Zhao wrote: “I appreciate the pardon already. There is a balance in asking for more vs ‘what is fair’ vs appreciate what you got already.”

He added that if any refund were granted, he intended to invest it on U.S. soil “to show our appreciation,” while clarifying that he has not yet made a formal request.

Lian responded that CZ’s goal to invest back into America was “a good take.”

The Legal Reality

Under his plea deal, Zhao personally paid a $50 million criminal fine, while Binance agreed to forfeit $4.3 billion to settle federal investigations involving the Department of Justice, FinCEN, and the CFTC.

However, although CZ was pardoned, the presidential waiver does not typically unwind monetary penalties already paid.

Penalties, particularly those tied to criminal settlement, are generally final and non-refundable, largely because they have already been transferred to the U.S. Treasury or another government entity.

A pardon also typically does not interfere with corporate settlements already completed, which, in Binance’s case, covered years of alleged compliance failures.

“If money is paid to the government, you can’t get the money back except through a congressional appropriation,” a former clemency lawyer with the Department of Justice told Al Jazeera.

Community Response

The community’s response to CZ’s claims of optimistic “appreciation” has been mixed, with some expressing that CZ’s comments sounded like a PR move.

One X user said: “Sounds like he’s playing long game diplomacy.”

Another wrote: “Convenient timing for a pr move when everything’s bleeding out. Curious what ‘reinvest’ actually means tho.”

“Cute gesture, but you can’t buy your way out of surveillance when everything’s transparent anyway,” said another.

Another X user said? “Who else thinks the $4.3B was the cost of the Pardon? ”

However, some of CZ’s followers did continue to express gratitude.

“That’s very thoughtful of you. Yeah, investing it in America if they refund the money is not a bad idea at all,” one said. 

CZ Pushes Back on X Endorsements

Last week, CZ cautioned his millions of followers against interpreting his social-media activity as a signal of credibility.

The comments followed reports that some users were buying and selling X accounts, in some cases for thousands of dollars.

“Don’t buy handles that I follow. I will unfollow any sold accounts,” Zhao wrote on X, adding that he follows accounts “randomly.”

He stressed: “My follow means nothing, not endorsement.”

 

The warning came after an X user posted that, at the height of the 2022 bull market, accounts followed by Zhao could sell for between $3,000 and $20,000 in USDT.

Some buyers reportedly acquired “CZ-followed” profiles only to be unfollowed shortly afterward when Zhao discovered the growing market.

While some participants saw the trade as a status-seeking novelty, others used it for more malicious purposes.

According to the user’s account, criminal groups had begun purchasing these “CZ-follow” profiles to promote crypto scams and rug-pull operations by leveraging Zhao’s reputation for legitimacy.

“That’s the really detestable part,” the post said, adding that Zhao’s recent wave of unfollowing was “the right move.”

 

Source: https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/cz-reinvest-binance-us-fine-funds-if-refunded/

The post CZ Claims He Would Reinvest Returned Fine Funds Into the US — but Is a Refund Possible? appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Former Binance CEO CZ Vows to Reinvest Any Future Refund of $4.3B DOJ Fine Into the US

Anndy Lian
Former Binance CEO CZ Vows to Reinvest Any Future Refund of $4.3B DOJ Fine Into the US

Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao says he would reinvest any potential refund of Binance’s $4.3 billion settlement with the US Department of Justice back into the United States.

Key Takeaways:

CZ says any refund of Binance’s $4.3 billion DOJ settlement would be reinvested in the United States.His comments follow a presidential pardon that triggered political backlash from Democratic lawmakers.Critics accuse CZ and Binance of financial ties to Trump’s family venture, raising concerns about the pardon’s integrity.

The comment came after author and crypto commentator Anndy Lian publicly asked whether CZ expected the US government to return the multibillion-dollar penalty following his presidential pardon.

CZ called it a “delicate question,” saying that he was already grateful for the pardon and suggested there is a balance between seeking fairness and appreciating the outcome.

CZ Says Any Refund of DOJ Fine Would Be Reinvested in the US

Addressing the issue directly, CZ said any refunded amount would be put to work inside the United States.

“If we get any refund, we will be investing that in America anyway, to show our appreciation,” he said, adding that he has not yet asked for one.

Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to failing to maintain an effective Anti-Money Laundering program at Binance, a violation of the Bank Secrecy Act. He was sentenced to four months in prison in April 2024.

Binance paid over $4.3 billion in settlements, while CZ personally paid $50 million and served four months in prison before his release in September 2024.

In October 2025, Zhao was given a presidential pardon by President Donald Trump, which instantly sparked massive backlash.

Senator Elizabeth Warren led opposition to the pardon, writing that “the convergence of Mr. Zhao’s pardon application and Binance’s financial entanglements with the President’s family presents urgent concerns regarding the integrity of our justice system.”

She posted that CZ “pleaded guilty to a criminal money laundering charge” before financing Trump’s stablecoin and lobbying for clemency.

A group of Democratic senators, including Bernie Sanders, Chris Van Hollen, Jack Reed, and Mazie Hirono, sent a letter to Attorney General Pamela Bondi demanding explanations about how the pardon impacts future white-collar prosecutions.

Representative Maxine Waters particularly called the pardon “an appalling but unsurprising reflection of his presidency.”

CZ’s Lawyer Rejects Corruption Claims

As reported, CZ’s attorney, Teresa Goody Guillén, has pushed back against allegations that the former Binance CEO’s presidential pardon was influenced by improper financial ties, calling recent media reports “false statements” based on fundamental misunderstandings of blockchain technology.

Guillén argued that CZ “never should have been prosecuted,” saying he faced harsher treatment than banking executives who committed similar compliance violations.

She emphasized that the case involved no victims or fraud and attributed the prosecution to the previous administration’s broader “war on crypto” following the fallout from FTX.

Addressing claims of corruption, Guillén dismissed connections between Binance and Trump-backed World Liberty Financial as misinterpretations of normal blockchain activity.

Critics had cited USD1, a stablecoin operating on Binance Smart Chain, and a $2 billion investment settlement involving the token as evidence of quid pro quo.

She countered that USD1 runs across multiple chains and is not exclusive to Binance, comparing the assumption of a special relationship to claiming someone has ties to Craigslist simply for posting an item on the platform.

 

Source: https://cryptonews.com/news/cz-vows-to-reinvest-any-future-refund-of-4-3b-doj-fine-into-us/

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43 per cent chance of a Fed rate cut isn’t enough: Markets brace for a volatile December

Anndy Lian
43 per cent chance of a Fed rate cut isn’t enough: Markets brace for a volatile December

We are caught between the surging optimism of the AI revolution and the sobering reality of a Federal Reserve that shows no immediate signs of pivoting toward monetary easing. The dominant narrative of the past six months, a powerful rally in US equities that saw the S&P 500 climb a robust 21 per cent from April through October, has now run into a wall of technical resistance and macroeconomic uncertainty. This creates a delicate and precarious balance for investors, who must navigate a market that is technically stretched, fundamentally challenged by a lack of broad-based participation, and now facing its first major test of conviction since the rally began.

The S&P 500’s impressive run, which brought its year-to-date return to over 30 per cent by mid-November, has been almost exclusively driven by the so-called Magnificent Seven technology giants. Their valuations, trading at more than 30 times earnings, are a clear signal that the market’s gains have been concentrated in a narrow cohort of AI beneficiaries. This dynamic echoes the excesses of the dotcom era.

This concentration creates a fragile foundation. The index now struggles at its 50-day moving average, a key technical level that often acts as a barometer of short-term sentiment. A failure to break through this resistance, especially after such a strong run, suggests that much of the easy money has been made and that further upside will be limited and hard-fought. Historical seasonal trends support this cautious view, as the final two months of the year typically offer only marginal gains following such a powerful rally.

The single most important event for the market’s immediate trajectory will be Nvidia’s earnings report on November 19. As the undisputed leader in AI chips, Nvidia has become the canary in the coal mine for the entire AI investment thesis. Its guidance on future demand, data center growth, and gross margins will be scrutinised for any sign of a slowdown in the frenzied spending by hyperscalers and tech firms. A strong beat and bullish outlook could provide a final burst of momentum to push the S&P 500 to new highs before year-end. Conversely, any hint of a demand deceleration or a more challenging competitive landscape would likely trigger a broad-based selloff, as it would call into question the core engine of the market’s gains over the past year.

Compounding this technical and earnings-driven anxiety is the shifting landscape of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s stance has become a primary source of near-term worry. Markets had been pricing in a high probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, but recent strong economic data, particularly in the labour market, have forced a dramatic reassessment. The odds of a December rate cut have now fallen to just 43 per cent, a coin flip at best. This sudden withdrawal of expected liquidity is a major headwind for risk assets. The implications are clear in the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.148 per cent, and in the foreign exchange market, where the US Dollar Index has strengthened to 99.299. A strong dollar and high yields are a toxic combination for global growth and for expensive, long-duration assets like technology stocks.

This environment of Fed uncertainty makes a barbell investment strategy particularly prudent. On one end, investors should retain exposure to high-quality, large-cap growth companies that are genuine AI leaders with strong balance sheets and clear paths to monetisation. On the other end, they should anchor their portfolios with resilient, high-quality dividend payers. These companies, often found in sectors like consumer staples and utilities, provide a steady income stream and act as a ballast during periods of market volatility and economic doubt. This dual approach allows investors to participate in the ongoing AI narrative while simultaneously protecting their capital from the potential fallout of a hawkish Fed.

The contrast between the US and emerging markets is also becoming more stark. While US valuations are stretched and corporate profit margins are at or near peak levels, many emerging markets offer a more compelling long-term risk-reward profile. Within this group, China remains a complex and challenging investment case, plagued by issues of capital misallocation and intense domestic competition. However, a selective approach is warranted. Chinese technology firms with a strong international footprint and a capacity for overseas expansion present a unique opportunity, as do high-quality dividend-paying stocks that can provide stability in an otherwise volatile market. The key is to avoid broad, passive exposure and instead focus on specific, well-managed companies that can navigate the domestic headwinds and capitalise on global opportunities.

The cryptocurrency market, deeply intertwined with the Nasdaq and broader risk sentiment, has been a stark reflection of this growing macro anxiety. Over the past 24 hours, the market has fallen 0.62 per cent, continuing a brutal 12 per cent monthly decline. The sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has plunged into the zone of “Extreme Fear,” registering a level of 17. A cascade of forced selling has amplified this fear.

In just four hours, over US$200 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated, creating a vicious feedback loop where falling prices triggered more margin calls, which in turn forced more selling. The unwinding of excessive leverage has left the market technically in a state of disrepair. The total crypto market cap has now fallen below its 200-day exponential moving average of US$3.63 trillion, confirming a bearish market structure.

The primary catalyst for this crypto selloff has been the same macro uncertainty plaguing traditional markets: the fading hope for imminent Fed rate cuts. As the odds for a December cut dropped to 44 per cent, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq surged to 0.86, confirming that crypto is once again being traded as a high-beta risk asset. This has been compounded by a significant outflow of institutional capital, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing US$1.1 billion in weekly outflows and a sharp 33 per cent monthly decline in stablecoin reserves, indicating a severe contraction in available trading liquidity. The market’s fragility was further exposed by a piece of news from Japan, where a proposal to slash the punitive crypto tax rate from 55 per cent to a more reasonable 20 per cent actually triggered short-term profit-taking. Investors, wary of any regulatory change, used the news as an excuse to exit positions, demonstrating how any event can become a catalyst for selling in such a risk-averse environment.

The key question now for the cryptocurrency market is whether a major technical support zone can hold. Analysts are closely watching the US$88,000 to US$90,000 range for Bitcoin. A decisive break below this level could unleash a wave of further liquidations, potentially totaling US$5.5 billion in short-term positions.

The market’s fate, much like that of the S&P 500, is now hostage to the same macro forces. Until there is greater clarity on the Fed’s path or a major, definitive catalyst, both traditional and digital asset markets are likely to remain range-bound and volatile, caught in a tense stalemate between the powerful promise of a new technological era and the immediate, sobering reality of a central bank determined to keep a tight grip on its monetary policy.

 

Source: https://e27.co/43-per-cent-chance-of-a-fed-rate-cut-isnt-enough-markets-brace-for-a-volatile-december-20251117/

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Lian Argues Long-Term Shiba Inu Holders Show True Conviction in Crypto

Anndy Lian
Lian Argues Long-Term Shiba Inu Holders Show True Conviction in Crypto

Anndy Lian criticized the hype surrounding new meme-coin traders, highlighting the long-term commitment of Shiba Inu holders.Lian emphasized that Shiba Inu holders have endured years of market volatility, showcasing true conviction in their investments.Lian questioned the praise given to traders who experienced short-term losses in newly launched meme coins.Shiba Inu experienced massive price fluctuations, with its value dropping nearly 90% from its all-time high.Despite significant losses, many Shiba Inu holders have maintained their investments for over a year.

Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian has criticized the hype around new meme-coin traders, emphasizing the commitment of long-term Shiba Inu holders. Lian recently shared his views on social media, questioning the celebration of short-term speculators who endure brief losses in new tokens. According to Lian, it is the Shiba Inu holders who have weathered years of market volatility that deserve true recognition.

Shiba Inu’s History of Volatility

Shiba Inu has experienced dramatic price fluctuations since its launch in August 2020. The token started at an extremely low price of $0.000000000056. In October 2021, it reached an all-time high of $0.00008845, marking an astronomical surge.

However, Shiba Inu has faced a severe price drop from its peak. The coin has lost nearly 90% of its value, currently priced at $0.000009122. This ongoing volatility has led to many investors holding their positions through both rapid price increases and large drawdowns.

Despite the setbacks, many Shiba Inu holders have remained committed to their investments. Recent reports show that over 1.17 million holders have kept their Shiba Inu tokens for more than a year, enduring these market fluctuations. Lian applauds their persistence, suggesting they have displayed more conviction than short-term traders in newer meme coins.

New Meme Coin Traders and Short-Term Losses

Lian recently reacted to the celebration of a trader who suffered a $30,000 loss within 24 hours while holding a new Solana meme coin. The trader’s perseverance through this brief volatility was praised as a show of “conviction.” Lian, however, expressed skepticism, pointing out that a three-day-old token and a 24-hour loss pale in comparison to Shiba Inu’s years of market swings.

 

Lian argues that long-term Shiba Inu investors have endured much more substantial challenges. He believes their resilience, not the short-term speculative gains of new traders, should be celebrated.

“If holding a Solana meme coin through a $30,000 loss counts as conviction, Shiba Inu holders deserve Nobel prizes for their perseverance,” Lian stated.

This comparison highlights the differences between short-term speculators and long-term investors in the crypto market. While new meme coins like those on Solana can attract quick attention, they do not represent the same level of commitment shown by Shiba Inu’s longstanding supporters.

SHIB Price and Long-Term Commitment

Shiba Inu price continues to fluctuate, with a recent seven-day loss of 1.05% and a 13.94% drop over the past month. Despite the decline, Shiba Inu holders remain steadfast. Even with the challenges, many continue to hold their tokens, embodying the true spirit of long-term conviction.

Shiba Inu’s journey from humble beginnings to its peak and subsequent decline highlights the volatility of the crypto market. Investors who have stuck with the coin through thick and thin are a testament to the enduring power of long-term commitment. According to Lian, their ability to hold through such market turbulence stands as a model of true perseverance.

 

Source: https://parameter.io/lian-argues-long-term-shiba-inu-holders-show-true-conviction-in-crypto/

 

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Expert Says Shiba Inu Holders Deserve Nobel Prizes: Here’s Why

Anndy Lian
Expert Says Shiba Inu Holders Deserve Nobel Prizes: Here’s Why

Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian has criticized the growing hype around new meme-coin traders, arguing that long-term Shiba Inu holders deserve Nobel prizes.

In a recent tweet, Lian pushed back against a wave of social media praise directed at a trader who held a newly launched Solana meme coin through severe volatility.

He noted that the individual was being celebrated for showing “conviction” after holding a three-day-old token and suffering a $30,000 loss within just 24 hours.

Shiba Inu Holders Endured Extreme Volatility

Lian suggested that the development pales in comparison to the long-term commitment shown by investors in established meme coins, such as Shiba Inu and Dogecoin.

Indeed, Shiba Inu holders have experienced extreme volatility over the years, ranging from massive price surges to significant drawdowns.

Launched at an initial price of $0.000000000056 in August 2020, Shiba Inu climbed to an all-time high of $0.00008845 in October 2021. Ever since, the token has plummeted heavily, dropping 89.68% from its ATH to $0.000009122.

Meanwhile, amid the recent market downturn, Shiba Inu has plunged 5.47% over the past 24 hours to $0.000009122. It has posted a seven-day loss of 1.05%, a 13.94% decline over the past month, and a 56.4% drawdown this year alone.

Long-Term Shiba Inu Holders Deserve Nobel Awards

Although some traders liquidated their SHIB holdings, many others have remained resilient. As reported in May, over 1.17 million Shiba Inu holders had been holding SHIB for over a year, enduring significant volatility within this period.

In Lian’s view, true conviction is demonstrated by long-term investors who have held Shiba Inu through years of volatility, not by short-term speculators riding the overnight swings of newly minted Solana meme coins. He disclosed that he is among the investors who have held Shiba Inu for several years.

According to him, if enduring a $30,000 drawdown in 24 hours on a three-day-old Solana meme coin counts as conviction, then long-term Shiba Inu holders deserve Nobel prizes for enduring years of market swings.

He argues that recognition should go to Shiba Inu investors, who have weathered years of extreme volatility, rather than new traders who have only experienced a fraction of what the SHIB community has faced.

 

Source: https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/11/14/expert-says-shiba-inu-holders-deserve-nobel-prizes-heres-why/

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Crypto’s perfect storm: Broken support, hawkish Fed, and Nasdaq lockstep

Anndy Lian
Crypto’s perfect storm: Broken support, hawkish Fed, and Nasdaq lockstep

The confluence of macro uncertainty, technical breakdowns, and sector-specific stressors has created a volatile environment that tests the resilience of risk assets across the board. This turbulence lies behind Bitcoin’s breach of the US$100,000 level, a psychological and structural support that, once broken, triggered a cascade of leveraged liquidations totaling US$1.3 billion.

This event did not occur in isolation. Instead, it amplified and was amplified by broader financial dynamics, especially the tightening correlation between crypto and equities, particularly the Nasdaq-100, which reached an unusually high 0.95 over the past 24 hours. These developments, layered atop structural pressures in Bitcoin mining and shifting monetary policy expectations, signal more than just a routine correction. They reflect deeper questions about crypto’s role in a risk-on/risk-off world and the sustainability of its recent rally.

The breakdown below US$100,000 marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This level had served not only as a price anchor but also as a signal of institutional confidence and market maturity. Its breach suggests that sentiment has soured rapidly, possibly due to a combination of overextended positioning and macro headwinds.

The data underscores this fragility. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rose 4.21 per cent immediately before the drop, indicating a dense concentration of long positions that were suddenly exposed when the market turned. In leveraged markets, such crowded trades can magnify price moves exponentially, as margin calls force further selling into a thin market. The resulting feedback loop accelerated the decline and pushed many positions underwater. Now, all eyes are on the 200-day exponential moving average around US$95,000. Should Bitcoin stabilise above this level, it could signal that the worst of the liquidation cascade has passed. But a failure to hold would likely invite another wave of forced deleveraging, especially if broader risk sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Compounding this technical vulnerability is the reassertion of crypto’s tie to equity markets, particularly to the Nasdaq. The 0.95 correlation with the Nasdaq-100 over 24 hours, its highest since June 2025, confirms that institutional participants continue to treat crypto as a risk-on proxy rather than a distinct asset class. This linkage became especially pronounced as technology shares sold off sharply, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.29 per cent amid concerns over AI-related earnings and the fading likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut by January 2026 has collapsed to just 20 per cent, down from 49 per cent a week earlier. This shift reflects increasingly hawkish commentary from Fed officials, who appear reluctant to ease policy despite the recent government shutdown and market volatility. For crypto markets, this means less near-term tailwind from monetary policy and more sensitivity to equity market swings. As long as institutional capital flows remain dictated by macro liquidity expectations, crypto will struggle to decouple from the broader risk narrative.

Adding another layer of pressure is the growing distress in the Bitcoin mining sector. Bitfarms’ announcement that it plans to exit mining by 2027 after reporting a US$46 million quarterly loss highlights the mounting economic challenges facing miners. The company cited unsustainable energy costs and declining profitability, conditions exacerbated by a 41 per cent drop in industry-wide mining revenue since October. Historically, miners have been consistent sellers of Bitcoin, liquidating approximately 1,000 BTC per day to cover operational expenses. As margins compress, this selling pressure could intensify, especially if more miners follow Bitfarms’ strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure. While such transitions may make business sense in the long run, they erode near-term confidence in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals. A sustained decline in network hashrate would be a red flag, signaling that more miners are capitulating under financial stress. This dynamic not only increases selling pressure but also raises concerns about network security and decentralization if smaller operators are forced offline.

The macro backdrop adds further complexity. Although the US government has resumed operations after a 43-day shutdown, the resolution offers little clarity on fiscal sustainability or the path of monetary policy. Markets initially welcomed the end of the impasse, but this relief was short-lived as investors refocused on the Fed’s tightening stance. The modest rise in Treasury yields, 10-year yields climbing to 4.11 per cent and two-year yields to 3.59 per cent, reflects both the removal of shutdown-related uncertainty and a reassessment of rate cut probabilities. Meanwhile, gold declined 1.1 per cent to US$4,151.86 per ounce, suggesting that safe-haven demand weakened as the immediate fiscal crisis abated. The dollar also dipped slightly, closing at 99.16, but this move appears more technical than fundamental. Crucially, Friday’s upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data will serve as a litmus test for inflation expectations. Should the data come in hotter than anticipated, it could further delay rate cut hopes and extend the selloff across risk assets, including crypto.

Within this environment, sentiment has plunged into Extreme Fear, as reflected by a Fear & Greed Index reading of 22. Historically, such extremes have often marked contrarian buying opportunities, especially in crypto markets where panic selling tends to overshoot fundamentals. However, the current context may be different. Unlike previous fear-driven corrections, today’s selloff emerges against a backdrop of structural shifts, a re-tethering to equity markets, miner distress, and a less accommodative macro regime. These factors suggest that the usual buy the dip narrative may not apply, at least not immediately. For long-term believers in Bitcoin’s value proposition, the current pullback could represent a strategic entry point, but only if one assumes that the macro environment will eventually ease and that mining sector stress is transitory. Short-term traders, on the other hand, must contend with the very real possibility of further downside if equities continue to lead the move or if miner selling accelerates.

In conclusion, this market wrap captures more than a routine correction. It reflects a convergence of technical, macro, and sector-specific pressures that challenge crypto’s independence as an asset class. Bitcoin’s fall below US$100,000, its tight correlation with the Nasdaq, and the exodus from mining all point to a moment of reckoning. The path forward hinges on whether crypto can reassert its unique narrative, decouple from equities, absorb miner sell pressure, and regain institutional confidence in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Until then, volatility will remain elevated, and the market will stay at the mercy of macro crosscurrents and technical thresholds. Traders and investors alike must navigate this terrain with caution, recognising that the current fear may be justified, but also that in crypto, fear often plants the seeds of the next bull run.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-perfect-storm-broken-support-hawkish-fed-and-nasdaq-lockstep-20251114/

 

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No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

Anndy Lian
No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

The macro landscape this week sits in a state of suspended animation, defined less by new developments than by their absence. At the heart of this inertia is the ongoing US government shutdown, which began on October 1 and has now stretched into its sixth week, becoming the longest in the nation’s history. This institutional paralysis has created a critical data void, most notably delaying the release of the October Consumer Price Index report that was originally scheduled for Thursday, November 13.

The White House has even conceded that this key inflation gauge for October may never be officially released, leaving a permanent blind spot in the economic record. This vacuum of information forces markets to anchor their expectations on whatever data trickles out, elevating the importance of tonight’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, which are expected to show a figure of 218,000 for the week ending November 8.

In this context of uncertainty, risk sentiment has turned cautious. US equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow showing modest strength while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined, a divergence that speaks to a subtle but important rotation within the market. This caution was also evident in the Treasury market, where yields edged lower as investors welcomed tentative signs of progress in Congress toward a resolution that would reopen the government. The 10-year yield’s retreat to 4.06 per cent reflects this flight to safety and a renewed hope for a political compromise. The US Dollar Index, for its part, remained largely flat, closing at 99.47, signaling that traders are in a holding pattern, unwilling to make significant directional bets until the political fog lifts and the next concrete piece of economic data arrives.

The crypto market, however, has been unable to insulate itself from this broader macro malaise. It has fallen a further 0.56 per cent over the last 24 hours, a move that extends a more painful 11.7 per cent monthly decline. This persistent weakness is not a single-factor event but rather a perfect storm of three distinct, reinforcing pressures: a clear pattern of institutional profit-taking, a sharp contagion event in the derivatives market, and an uncomfortably tight correlation with the performance of US tech stocks.

The first of these bearish forces is institutional retrenchment. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major structural support for the market since their launch, their influence has waned in recent weeks. Data from trackers shows a clear trend of capital flight, with the total assets under management for these funds dropping from a recent high of around US$140.7 billion to US$138.9 billion over a single week, a decline of 8.7 per cent. This outflow is more than a simple portfolio rebalance; it signals a deeper shift in sentiment among large, sophisticated players. As the 10x Research CEO warned, a sense of fatigue has set in, driven by Bitcoin’s notable underperformance in 2025 relative to both the soaring price of gold and the resilient gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. For institutions that bought the post-ETF approval rally, the current environment offers a compelling reason to trim their exposure and lock in what gains remain.

The second pressure point is a stark reminder of the fragility embedded in the crypto ecosystem’s leverage. The US$63 million liquidation cascade on the Popcat memecoin, centered on the Hyperliquid exchange, was not an isolated incident but a canary in the coal mine. This single event triggered a broader wave of deleveraging across the entire crypto market, evidenced by a 14.7 per cent drop in total open interest. This is the process of overextended, speculative positions, particularly in the volatile altcoin sector, being forcibly closed out, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of selling that spills over into the entire asset class. The subsequent cooling of perpetual funding rates, which fell by 41 per cent in just 24 hours, confirms a sharp and sudden reduction in speculative appetite. The market is in a defensive crouch.

The third and perhaps most inescapable headwind is crypto’s persistent and powerful link to traditional equities, specifically the Nasdaq-100. The market’s 24-hour price action has shown a correlation of 0.88 with the Nasdaq-100, its strongest link to the index since March 2025. This statistic is a powerful testament to the fact that, for all its claims of being a separate, uncorrelated asset, crypto remains a risk asset first and foremost. Its fate is now inextricably tied to the same macro forces that move the markets for Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Therefore, any pre-market weakness in the Nasdaq, such as the 1.2 per cent drop seen on Thursday, driven by fears over sticky inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, will inevitably be mirrored in a retreat across the crypto board.

In conclusion, the market’s current malaise is a confluence of its own internal dynamics and the external macroeconomic environment. The derivatives market is in a state of recovery from its recent squeeze, with perpetual funding rates having turned slightly positive again at plus 0.0014 per cent. However, this technical stabilisation is overshadowed by a collapse in market confidence, as evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index plunging into the Extreme Fear territory at a reading of 25.

The path forward is clouded by the absence of the CPI data, but its eventual release or its continued absence will be a critical test. The key question on every trader’s mind is whether Bitcoin can hold the critical psychological and technical support level of US$100,000 if the October inflation data, when it finally emerges, shows a year-over-year increase that exceeds the 3.4 per cent threshold, which would likely cement a risk-off posture across all markets.

Until then, all assets remain chained to this unprecedented political and data-driven uncertainty.

Source: https://e27.co/no-cpi-no-confidence-how-data-paralysis-is-fueling-cryptos-november-slide-20251113/

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Shiba Inu Partners and Community on The Shib’s New Era

Anndy Lian
Shiba Inu Partners and Community on The Shib’s New Era

To mark the 100th edition and the second anniversary of this magazine, key partners, builders, and leading voices from the Shib Army are now sharing their definitive insights and visions, together defining the new era.

Congratulations! It has been an honor to collaborate through exclusive interviews and panel discussions that delve into the promises and perils of Web3, meme coins, and blockchain adoption. Your platform exemplifies the power of community media in fostering innovation, trust, and education within the crypto ecosystem. Here’s to many more years of insightful content and collective growth!

– Anndy Lian

Thought Leader| Intergovernmental Blockchain Advisor| Investor & Best-Selling Author

 

Source: https://magazine.shib.io/shiba-inu-partners-and-community-on-the-shibs-new-era/

The New Hundredth Era Of The Shib

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Crypto crashes 3.7 per cent despite US shutdown deal: US$260M liquidations and whale exodus trigger sell-off

Anndy Lian
Crypto crashes 3.7 per cent despite US shutdown deal: US$260M liquidations and whale exodus trigger sell-off

The past 24 hours have exposed the fragility beneath recent crypto market gains, delivering a sobering reminder that sentiment can shift abruptly even amid macroeconomic progress. At first glance, the backdrop appears favourable. The US Senate passed a government funding bill on Monday evening, November 10, that would extend operations through January, marking a decisive step toward ending what has become the longest government shutdown in American history.

With a 60 to 40 vote, the chamber cleared the path for the measure to advance to the Republican-controlled House, where Speaker Mike Johnson signalled readiness to pass it swiftly and forward it to President Donald Trump for signature. This legislative breakthrough should, in theory, stabilise risk sentiment and restore confidence in the continuity of US fiscal governance.

The market’s reaction has been conspicuously muted, even negative. While US equities closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow surging 1.18 per cent, the S&P 500 edging up just 0.21 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.25 per cent, the crypto market tumbled by 3.67 per cent over the same 24-hour window. This divergence underscores a growing decoupling between legacy risk assets and digital ones, at least in the short term.

The Nasdaq 100, a traditional proxy for tech-driven risk appetite, now shows a sharply negative 24-hour correlation with crypto at negative 0.77. This marks the most pronounced short-term divergence in months, suggesting that crypto traders are acting on distinct catalysts absent in broader equity markets.

Three interlocking forces drove this sell-off: a cascade of leveraged liquidations, coordinated whale exits in Ethereum, and macro-level caution despite apparent political resolution. The first, and perhaps most mechanically significant, was the unwinding of excessive leverage in futures markets. Over US$260 million in crypto positions were liquidated in just one day, with longs accounting for 84 per cent of Bitcoin and 90 per cent of Ethereum losses.

This follows a 10 per cent weekly increase in open interest, indicating that speculators had aggressively positioned for further upside. When prices dipped, even modestly, margin calls triggered a feedback loop of forced selling, amplifying the initial decline into a full-blown washout.

Compounding this technical pressure was a strategic retreat by institutional and whale participants in the Ethereum ecosystem. Data confirms that two large holders offloaded 178,080 ETH, valued at approximately US$528 million, in what appears to be a coordinated profit-taking manoeuvre. This move coincided with the worst weekly outflow period for Ethereum spot ETFs since their launch. US$796 million fled the nine US-listed funds over the prior week, with every single ETF posting net redemptions.

Such synchronised outflows suggest more than just retail sentiment fatigue. They reflect a loss of institutional conviction at current valuations. With Ethereum’s RSI hovering near 38, a level often deemed oversold, the asset lacks organic buying pressure to absorb such large-scale exits, leaving technical support at US$3,360 as the next critical threshold.

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic data released this week offers a mixed signal. On one hand, the ADP National Employment Report published on November 5 showed that private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, the first monthly gain since July. Annual pay growth held steady at 4.5 per cent, signalling persistent wage pressures. However, a separate weekly ADP metric covering the four weeks ending October 25 paints a bleaker picture.

Private-sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week during that window. This internal contradiction, monthly gains versus deteriorating weekly trends, fuels uncertainty about labour market resilience heading into year-end. With the Federal Reserve still data-dependent, such ambiguity keeps rate-cut expectations tentative, despite gold rising to US$4,118.58 per ounce on hopes of easing monetary policy.

The US Dollar Index edged down 0.13 per cent to 99.46, while Brent crude rose 1.72 per cent to US$65.16 per barrel, reflecting cautious optimism about global demand. Crypto failed to participate in this risk-on drift. Instead, it exhibited classic risk-off behaviour, not because of direct Fed commentary or CPI surprises, but due to internal market structure vulnerabilities, namely, too much leverage and too little institutional anchoring.

From a strategic standpoint, this correction may be healthy. The 2.99 per cent weekly gain preceding the drop had stretched technical indicators and elevated funding rates into unsustainable territory. The liquidation event serves as a necessary recalibration, clearing weak hands and resetting leverage ratios.

The simultaneous ETF outflows and whale selling in Ethereum suggest deeper concerns about the token’s near-term utility or valuation relative to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin continues to benefit from its digital gold narrative and ETF inflows, Ethereum faces scrutiny over scaling progress, staking yields, and its role in a potential Web4 stack that increasingly integrates AI and decentralised finance in novel ways.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to two pivotal levels. Bitcoin’s psychological and technical floor sits at US$60,000, and Ethereum’s support rests at US$3,360. A break below either could trigger further algorithmic selling and sentiment deterioration.

Conversely, suppose the government funding bill passes the House and is signed into law, currently estimated at a 96 per cent probability by November 15. In that case, it may restore enough macro calm to reignite risk appetite. Crypto’s fate will ultimately depend less on political theatre and more on whether organic demand can replace speculative leverage and institutional outflows. Until then, volatility remains the only certainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-crashes-3-7-per-cent-despite-us-shutdown-deal-us260m-liquidations-and-whale-exodus-trigger-sell-off-20251112/

 

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