Anndy Lian's Blog, page 8

Dow, Nasdaq, and crypto all slip as treasury yields climb on delayed cut bets

Anndy Lian
Dow, Nasdaq, and crypto all slip as treasury yields climb on delayed cut bets

We took a hit from recent economic data that stirred up doubts about the timing of interest rate cuts. Investors faced a mix of signals from the US economy, which showed strength in some areas but left questions about inflation and labour trends. The Labour Department noted that initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 for the week ending September 20, beating what analysts expected.

At the same time, revised figures indicated the economy expanded at a 3.8 per cent pace in the second quarter, up from the earlier estimate of 3.3 per cent, thanks to robust consumer spending and business investments. These numbers painted a picture of resilience, yet they prompted traders to dial back bets on quick rate reductions.

The odds of a cut in December dropped by 20 per cent, and for January 2026, they fell by 30 per cent. Attention now turns to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index set for release on Friday, which investors see as a key gauge for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on rates.

Wall Street pulls back as yields climb

Wall Street extended its slide for a third day on Thursday, with the Dow Jones dipping 0.38 per cent, the S&P 500 losing 0.50 per cent, and the Nasdaq also down 0.50 per cent. Fading hopes for imminent rate cuts fuelled the pullback, as participants adjusted portfolios amid the uncertainty.

Treasury yields climbed, reflecting expectations of rates staying higher for longer. The 10-year yield added 2.3 basis points to close at 4.170 per cent, while the two-year yield jumped 5.1 basis points to 3.655 per cent. The dollar strengthened, with its index rising 0.69 per cent to 98.553, bolstered by the solid economic readings.

Gold edged up 0.4 per cent to US$3,749.44 per ounce, drawing support from increased physical demand despite the dollar’s gain. Brent crude oil ticked higher by 0.2 per cent to US$69.42 per barrel, holding steady amid global energy flows.

Asian stocks closed mixed on Thursday due to some profit-taking, and they showed varied performance in early Friday trading. Futures pointed to a lower open for US equities, suggesting the cautious mood would carry over.

Crypto market hit by liquidations

The cryptocurrency market endured a sharp 3.01 per cent drop over the past 24 hours, building on a 7.22 per cent decline over the last week. Several factors converged to drive this downturn, including wavering Federal Reserve signals, massive liquidations totalling US$1.5 billion, and breakdowns in key technical levels.

The Fed’s initial rate cut on September 17 sparked a brief rally, but Chair Powell’s comments on September 24 about potential labour risks and persistent inflation flipped the script, leading to risk-averse behaviour across assets. Traders currently assign a 91.9 per cent probability to another cut in October, according to Bitget News, but the crypto sector’s growing tie to traditional markets amplified the fallout.

Its correlation with the Nasdaq-100 reached +0.65 over the last day, making digital assets particularly exposed to broader economic jitters. This setup left crypto in a vulnerable spot, as participants weighed whether monetary easing could counter slowdown fears.

Leverage and technical weakness amplify the sell-off

Liquidations added fuel to the fire, with US$1.5 billion wiped out between September 22 and 24, marking the biggest such event since December 2024. Assets like Solana, down 6.2 per cent, NEAR, off 8.5 per cent, and memecoins such as Aster, plunging 23 per cent, bore the brunt as long positions unraveled.

Open interest climbed 9.05 per cent in the last 24 hours, hinting at excessive leverage that backfired. In thinner markets for altcoins, these forced sales created a vicious cycle, pushing prices lower and triggering more exits. Technically, the overall crypto market capitalisation slipped below its seven-day simple moving average of US$3.89 trillion and the pivotal US$3.76 trillion mark.

The 14-day relative strength index hit 26.5, indicating oversold territory, though without signs of bullish divergence to suggest a turnaround yet. Algorithmic trading and institutional players likely sped up the sell-off once supports gave way, hitting high-volatility coins hardest.

The bigger picture: Macro links and market fragility

From my personal view, this episode highlights how tightly intertwined crypto has become with macroeconomic forces, a shift that brings both opportunities and pitfalls. A strong US economy, as evidenced by the jobless claims and GDP revisions, should theoretically support risk assets over time, but the immediate reaction underscores a market fixated on short-term Fed cues.

Crypto’s evolution from a niche alternative to a correlated play on tech and growth means it amplifies Nasdaq moves, which works well in bull runs but exposes it during pullbacks. The liquidations reveal ongoing issues with leverage in derivatives, where euphoria builds positions that crumble under pressure, often dragging spot prices down.

Technically, the oversold readings offer a glimmer of hope for a rebound, especially if Bitcoin holds its ground above US$97,000 to US$104,000, aligning with its 200-day and 365-day moving averages. Bitcoin dominance at 58.16 per cent suggests it could lead any recovery, potentially allowing altcoins to catch up if macro fears ease.

What comes next: Data to watch

Looking ahead, the Personal Consumption Expenditures data on Friday could pivot sentiment if it shows cooling inflation, reopening the door for cuts. Upcoming PMI figures and further jobless claims will test whether the labor market’s strength persists or softens, influencing risk appetite.

In crypto, eyes remain on Bitcoin’s US$100,000 threshold and Ethereum’s US$3,400 level, as breaks lower might spark another liquidation spiral. If altcoins manage to break from Bitcoin’s lead, it could signal a maturing market less dependent on the flagship asset.

Overall, the current fragility stems from this confluence of doubts, deleveraging, and chart failures, but history shows such dips often precede bounces when fundamentals align. Investors would do well to stay vigilant on Fed communications and monitor for stabilisation signs, as the path forward depends on balancing economic vigour with policy support.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/dow-nasdaq-and-crypto-all-slip-as-treasury-yields-climb-on-delayed-cut-bets-20250926/

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Circular capital: Inside the closed-loop ecosystem propelling (and distorting) the AI boom

Anndy Lian
Circular capital: Inside the closed-loop ecosystem propelling (and distorting) the AI boom

The artificial intelligence sector is experiencing an unprecedented surge, driven by what many observers describe as an arms race among tech giants and startups alike. Major players like Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Oracle are pouring billions into promising AI ventures such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Scale AI, creating intricate funding ecosystems that blur the lines between investment and self-serving commerce.

These startups, in turn, funnel much of that capital back into the investors’ own products, including cloud computing services, specialised chips, and data infrastructure. This circular flow of money strengthens the positions of a handful of dominant companies while raising serious questions about competition and the efficient use of resources in a field still in its early stages.

Circular capital loops

This setup resembles a high-stakes poker game where the house always wins, potentially stifling innovation from smaller players and inflating valuations beyond sustainable levels. The industry appears to operate on the belief that AI could evolve into a winner-take-all market, justifying these closed loops as a necessary hedge against being outpaced.

Recent reports indicate OpenAI’s valuation has climbed to around 324 billion dollars, with Anthropic not far behind at 178 billion dollars, figures that underscore the rapid escalation in private market enthusiasm. Scale AI, meanwhile, maintains a valuation near 29 billion dollars, often tied more to projected spending on infrastructure than to immediate revenue streams.

Regulatory scrutiny mounts

Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying as these dynamics unfold, with authorities expressing growing alarm over market concentration and potential antitrust issues. Nvidia, commanding over 80 per cent of the AI chip market, faces investigations from the US Department of Justice regarding its acquisition of Run:ai, a move that could further entrench its dominance.

The Financial Stability Board has issued warnings about the systemic risks posed by AI’s heavy reliance on a limited number of infrastructure providers, highlighting vulnerabilities in areas like cybersecurity and model governance that could cascade through the financial system. In my view, these concerns are well-founded, as the concentration of power in a few hands echoes past tech bubbles where over-dependence on key suppliers led to widespread disruptions.

Capital allocation risks

The circular capital loops exacerbate this, as seen in deals where OpenAI commits to massive spending on Oracle’s cloud services following investments from similar tech behemoths. While analysts remain optimistic about AI’s transformative potential in the long term, they caution against short-term returns hampered by regulatory hurdles and inefficient capital allocation.

The risk of overvaluation looms large, with private AI firms’ worth often predicated on future infrastructure expenditures rather than proven profitability, a pattern that could precipitate corrections if growth expectations falter.

Macro market backdrop

Shifting to broader economic indicators, global risk sentiment stays subdued as markets await new developments amid worries ranging from labor market slowdowns to persistent inflation. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US initial jobless claims data, with estimates around 233,000 following last week’s 231,000, a figure that could sway perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

The Swiss National Bank recently held its policy rate at 0.00 per cent, aligning with expectations and reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing in the face of stable inflation. Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.37 per cent at 46,121, the S&P 500 off 0.28 per cent at 6,638, and the Nasdaq declining 0.34 per cent to 22,498, driven by retreats in technology stocks amid valuation concerns.

Wall Street and commodities

Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year note at 4.147 per cent and the 2-year at 3.604 per cent, signalling mixed expectations for interest rate paths. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to 97.873, while gold prices dipped 0.7 per cent to 3,736 dollars per ounce, pulling back from recent highs as the dollar gained ground. Brent crude rose 2.5 per cent to settle at 69.31 dollars per barrel, buoyed by supply concerns from ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine impacting Russian oil facilities.

Asian equities showed mixed performance, with Chinese markets buoyed by AI and tech optimism, though early trading today indicated continued variability. US equity futures point to a higher open, suggesting some rebound potential. In my opinion, this muted sentiment reflects a market grappling with uncertainty, where AI hype provides sporadic lifts but broader economic signals like job data and yields temper enthusiasm, potentially setting the stage for volatility if inflation proves stickier than anticipated.

Crypto under pressure

Turning to cryptocurrencies, contrary to chatter among some circles that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, the data paints a different picture of weakening momentum for alternatives. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index stands at 68 out of 100, still in altcoin territory but down 4.23 per cent over the past 24 hours from last week’s 77, indicating a cooling trend.

Bitcoin’s dominance has risen to 57.97 per cent, up 0.25 points in the last day, as capital shifts toward the flagship cryptocurrency amid altcoin retreats. Ethereum, a bellwether for the sector, has fallen 11.6 per cent weekly, with Chainlink down 11.2 per cent and Cardano dropping 12.0 per cent, underscoring broader underperformance.

Derivatives markets reinforce this caution, with altcoin funding rates turning negative at -0.00035835 per cent and open interest declining 4.1 per cent in 24 hours, compared to Bitcoin’s more resilient metrics.

Investor takeaway

From my standpoint, this shift signals a risk-off environment in crypto, where Bitcoin’s perceived safety draws inflows during uncertainty, much like gold in traditional markets. Historically, Altcoin Season Index readings dipping below 70 often herald Bitcoin dominance rebounds, and current social discussions around Ethereum’s high fees and upcoming upgrades like Pectra in Q4 2025 add to the drag.

Traders unwinding leveraged positions faster in altcoins than in Bitcoin further erodes confidence in near-term rallies for alternatives, suggesting investors should prioritise Bitcoin amid this rotation.

Overall, the interplay between AI’s frenetic funding cycles, emerging regulatory pressures, subdued macro conditions, and crypto’s Bitcoin-centric tilt illustrates a financial landscape fraught with opportunity and peril.

I believe the AI arms race, while fuelling innovation, risks over-investment that could echo the dot-com era’s excesses if not tempered by competition and oversight. Investors would do well to diversify beyond concentrated bets, monitoring systemic risks and market signals closely to navigate what may prove a pivotal juncture for technology-driven growth.

 

Source: https://e27.co/circular-capital-inside-the-closed-loop-ecosystem-propelling-and-distorting-the-ai-boom-20250925/

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Asia-Pacific leads boom in crypto transactions amid regulatory hurdles: report

Anndy Lian
Asia-Pacific leads boom in crypto transactions amid regulatory hurdles: report

The Asia-Pacific region has become the world’s fastest-growing hub for cryptocurrency transactions, with on-chain activity surging despite inconsistent oversight and varied pathways to adoption, according to a new report.

Analysts say the trend reflects not only diverse use cases – from remittances and savings to gaming and speculative trading – but also regulatory uncertainty across the region, which could limit long-term potential even as momentum builds.

The report, released on Wednesday by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, found that during the 12 months ending June 2025, Asia-Pacific had emerged as the fastest-growing region for on-chain crypto activity, with a 69 per cent year-over-year increase in value received.

Total crypto transaction volume in the region grew from US$1.4 trillion to US$2.36 trillion, driven by robust engagement across major markets including India, Vietnam and Pakistan.

Monthly on-chain value received grew from about US$81 billion in July 2022 to peak at US$244 billion in December 2024, a threefold increase over 30 months. Transaction volumes have since remained robust at above US$185 billion per month through mid-2025.

In contrast to North America, where cryptocurrency activity is largely driven by institutional investment, Asia-Pacific’s growth is fuelled by broader, more retail-oriented demand, according to Chengyi Ong, head of Asia-Pacific policy at Chainalysis.

The report cites Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, India and Vietnam as among the nations spearheading transaction growth in the Asia-Pacific, fuelled by a combination of supportive policies to use cases.

“Mature markets like Singapore and Hong Kong remained relatively stable in terms of on-chain value transferred,” Ong said.

In the top market India, the digital currency is meeting a large diaspora’s remittance needs while young adults have embraced crypto trading as supplementary income, the report says.

“India has a large and technologically savvy population where young students experiment with blockchain and coding, and it also has unmet financial needs for income, investments, and cross-border transfers,” Ong said. “These are conditions in which cryptocurrency can gain traction.”

In South Korea, the second-largest Asia-Pacific market, trading in crypto is becoming as common as trading in shares, while new rules like the 2024 Virtual Asset User Protection Act are reshaping activity on major domestic exchanges, according to the report.

Vietnam, in third, showed crypto as everyday infrastructure for remittances, gaming and savings rather than speculation, the report added, while Pakistan added a fourth archetype with a young, mobile-first population embracing cryptos for remittances and investments.

Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based intergovernmental blockchain adviser, noted that key contributors to crypto’s rapid growth included adoption in emerging markets such as India, Pakistan and Vietnam for practical use, such as remittances, to provide a financial tool to unbanked populations – people without their own bank accounts – in the region.

“High mobile penetration and internet expansion have democratised entry, enabling retail investors to engage with centralised exchanges and decentralised protocols amid economic volatility,” Lian said.

Institutional interest in the digital currency has also risen, fuelled by progressive hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong which offer clearer fintech ecosystems, according to Lian, while emerging economies such as Indonesia and the Philippines also use crypto to boost financial inclusion.

Cryptocurrency, which works as a decentralised digital currency using blockchain technology to securely record transactions on a shared, unchangeable digital ledger, is being seen by observers as a means to transparently send money to remote populations with little access to banking.

The region’s uneven approach to regulation of cryptos, however, hampers its potential use, experts warn.

“Regulatory concerns in Apac’s [the Asia-Pacific’s] crypto landscape are pronounced, arising from inconsistent and fragmented frameworks that amplify risks while stifling balanced growth,” Lian said.

While Singapore provides comprehensive licensing for virtual asset providers, India’s levy of a 30 per cent tax on cryptocurrency gains means investors and businesses face uncertainty and systemic risks of over-regulation, according to Lian.

Experts say India’s approach to cryptos stems from anti-money laundering and countering terrorism financing, but the country would gain from broader regulation dealing with consumer protection, financial prudence and market conduct.

Lian noted that there were concerns among policymakers as the Asia-Pacific region had emerged as a hotspot for crypto scams and frauds globally.

“Broader issues include money-laundering vulnerabilities in less-regulated markets like the Philippines or Vietnam, where rapid growth exposes unbanked users to exploitation,” he said.

Crypto rules vary across the region, from rigorous oversight in Japan to light-touch regulation in Indonesia.

Lian warned, however, that the lack of uniformity risked regulatory arbitrage – exploiting differences or gaps in regulations across different jurisdictions – and hampered cross-border compliance,

He called on policymakers to address these issues to mitigate threats without curbing the region’s crypto potential, noting that policy coordination “is essential to streamline crypto transactions, reduce fragmentation, and harness the region’s growth potential sustainably”.

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3326725/asia-pacific-leads-boom-crypto-transactions-amid-regulatory-hurdles-report

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Anndy Lian: Speculative crypto trading thrives on volatility

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian: Speculative crypto trading thrives on volatility

Anndy Lian, a well-regarded figure in the cryptocurrency industry, has highlighted the role of high volatility in driving speculative trading. He suggests that for traders seeking significant profits, embracing volatility and leverage can be enticing, akin to staying in a casino with high stakes.

Lian’s perspective indicates that stability, such as a stagnant price or a slow upward trend around $2, might not appeal as much to investors keen on rapid market movements. This approach underlines the speculative nature of crypto investments and the allure of potential high returns, despite inherent risks.

 

 

Lian’s views on market dynamics align with his previous emphasis on the importance of safeguarding digital assets, as highlighted in his commentary on the advantages of using cold wallets for enhanced security. Additionally, his reflections on speculative trading recall his earlier advocacy for greater innovation in crypto exchange listings, where he underscored the need for a more robust regulatory and market framework amid rapid industry growth.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/559452-crypto-volatility-speculation/

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Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

Anndy Lian
Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

Global markets showed signs of caution this week as investors digested conflicting messages from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rate moves.

Chair Jerome Powell emphasised uncertainties in the labour market and inflation during his recent comments, avoiding clear guidance on a potential October cut while highlighting ongoing challenges for policymakers. This ambiguity contributed to a retreat in risk sentiment, with Wall Street closing lower on Tuesday amid concerns over tech stock valuations.

Wall Street and commodities react

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.19 per cent, the S&P 500 fell 0.55 per cent, and the Nasdaq declined 0.95 per cent. Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 10-year note down four basis points to 4.11 per cent and the two-year yield slipping one basis point to 3.59 per cent.

The US dollar index held steady with a minor dip of 0.08 per cent to 97.26, reflecting limited movement amid the mixed Fed outlook. Gold prices rose 0.5 per cent to US$3,764.59 per ounce, drawing safe-haven buying as geopolitical tensions simmered and expectations for a rate cut lingered.

Brent crude oil rose 1.6 per cent to US$67.63 per barrel, supported by disruptions to Russian supply from Ukrainian strikes and escalating NATO frictions. Asian equities opened weaker today, though US futures pointed to a modest rebound at the open.

Crypto extends risk-off decline

The cryptocurrency market mirrored this broader risk-off tone, shedding 0.64 per cent over the past 24 hours and extending a seven-day slide of 4.46 per cent. This downturn closely aligned with equity movements, as evidenced by a strong correlation of 0.91 with the Nasdaq-100 over the same period.

A massive liquidation event on September 22 wiped out US$1.8 billion in long positions, primarily on exchanges, triggering a cascade that erased US$150 billion from the overall crypto market cap. Ethereum bore the brunt, with over $500 million in liquidations, outpacing Bitcoin and amplifying losses across altcoins due to high leverage in those segments.

Regulatory uncertainty added fuel to the fire, as the SEC delayed approvals for altcoin ETFs, dampening investor enthusiasm and prompting a cooldown in momentum trading. Open interest across derivatives fell 3.3 per cent as traders unwound positions, signalling a broader deleveraging amid fears of further volatility.

Technical indicators painted a grim picture, with Bitcoin’s RSI dipping to 20.69, indicating extreme oversold conditions, yet rebounds remained weak, underscoring persistent risk aversion. Bitcoin tested its US$105,000 support level, and a breach could spark another 10 to 15 per cent correction, potentially dragging the market lower if global sentiment sours further.

Aster’s breakout amid market weakness

Amid this gloom, Aster emerged as a standout performer, surging 39.27 per cent in the last 24 hours and boasting an astonishing 2,376 per cent gain over seven days. This rally stemmed from the completion of its APX-to-ASTER token migration on September 22, a 1:1 swap that unlocked US$704 million in ASTER tokens for trading and injected fresh liquidity. The project, rebranded from APX Finance, drew significant attention through new exchange listings and perceived backing from Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao, often called CZ.

Whale activity intensified post-migration, with an Aster project multi-signature wallet transferring 80 million APX tokens valued at around US$132 million, further boosting trading volumes. By September 23, Aster’s market cap reached US$3.4 billion, a sharp rise fuelled by hype around its decentralised perpetual futures and spot trading platform.

Built on a multi-chain framework with support for up to 100x leverage on select pairs, Aster positioned itself as a high-yield alternative in the DeFi space, attracting traders seeking aggressive opportunities amid the broader market slump. Social media buzz amplified the momentum, with posts highlighting CZ’s strategic involvement as a bid to reclaim DeFi influence from centralised exchanges.

Aster’s rise invited inevitable comparisons to Hyperliquid, an established decentralised exchange specialising in perpetual futures on its custom Layer-1 blockchain. Hyperliquid gained traction after a viral airdrop in late 2024, coinciding with an industry-wide rally following Donald Trump’s reelection.

By August 2025, Hyperliquid surpassed Ethereum and Solana in user fee revenues, commanding a 75 to 80 per cent market share in perpetual DEX volumes at its peak. Its token, HYPE, traded at a US$15 billion market cap as of September 23, with daily volumes hitting US$200 billion and a total value locked exceeding US$670 million. Hyperliquid’s efficiency stemmed from its on-chain matching engine paired with an off-chain orderbook, enabling low-latency execution and deep liquidity for professional traders.

Community-driven initiatives, like proposals for a native stablecoin USDH backed by institutional partners such as State Street and VanEck, further solidified its ecosystem. In contrast, Aster’s US$2.5 billion market cap and US$20 billion in September volumes paled against Hyperliquid’s dominance, but it flipped the latter in daily perpetual futures volumes for three consecutive days, generating higher fees temporarily.

Innovation or hype? The road ahead

In my view, Aster’s explosive entry injects healthy competition into the perpetual DEX arena, where demand for leveraged trading remains robust despite market headwinds. Narratives labelling Aster as a Hyperliquid killer echo past hype, like Solana challenging Ethereum, but history shows room for multiple innovators rather than zero-sum outcomes. Hyperliquid’s battle-tested infrastructure, with 97 per cent of revenues funnelled into HYPE buybacks and a lean team of 11 delivering consistent upgrades, gives it a durable edge over newcomers.

Aster benefits from Binance ecosystem ties and CZ’s endorsement, potentially accelerating adoption through BNB Chain integration and higher leverage caps, but its rapid ascent carries risks of sharp reversals, as seen in on-chain data showing engineered growth patterns that may lack sustainability. Beginners should approach with caution, given the volatility inherent in fresh projects; swings can erase gains in a single candle, as skeptics on X noted.

Ultimately, both platforms could thrive if they carve distinct niches, Hyperliquid for institutional-grade perps and Aster for yield-focused DeFi plays. This dynamic might even spur broader innovation, benefiting users in a sector still recovering from deleveraging shocks.

Looking ahead, the crypto market’s fragility persists, with liquidation risks and regulatory delays capping upside. If Bitcoin holds above US$105,000 and the Fed signals a tilt dovish, a relief rally could ensue, but geopolitical uncertainties and equity correlations suggest choppy waters. Aster’s story adds intrigue, proving that even in downturns, targeted narratives can drive outsized moves, but long-term success demands more than initial hype.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-fed-ambiguity-fuels-risk-off-mood-as-aster-surges-amid-crypto-bloodbath-20250924/

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Survive the chop, ride the wave: Why Q4 could deliver a surge in tech and digital assets

Anndy Lian
Survive the chop, ride the wave: Why Q4 could deliver a surge in tech and digital assets

Recent announcements from major tech players, such as NVIDIA’s massive commitments to OpenAI and Intel, have sparked widespread enthusiasm about AI’s potential to drive economic growth. These deals, totalling over US$100 billion in some estimates, underscore a broader trend where companies pour resources into AI infrastructure, expecting transformative returns in efficiency and innovation.

This wave of investment has lifted equity markets, particularly in Asia and the US, where tech-heavy indices lead the charge. Investors see AI as a catalyst that could sustain rallies even amid economic uncertainties, fuelling a risk-on environment that extends beyond traditional stocks into commodities and digital assets.

Fed’s first rate cut of 2025

The Federal Reserve’s recent actions add another layer to this positive sentiment. Last week, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00 per cent to 4.25 per cent, marking the first cut of 2025 and signalling a pivot toward easing. This move came after months of speculation, with markets pricing in the change well in advance.

In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell described the adjustment as a precautionary step to bolster the labour market, emphasising that inflation risks have diminished while employment concerns grow. He noted a curious balance in the job market, with unemployment at 4.3 per cent and slower job gains, but stressed that the cut aims to prevent further weakening without reigniting price pressures.

Today, Powell delivers another speech on the economic outlook, which traders anticipate will provide clues about the pace of future easing. His comments could either reinforce the bullish mood or introduce caution if he highlights persistent challenges like tariff impacts or global tensions.

Diverging voices within the Fed

Divergent views among Fed officials highlight the nuanced path ahead. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, in his inaugural policy speech, argued forcefully that current rates remain overly restrictive, potentially risking higher unemployment if not lowered aggressively. Appointed by President Trump, Miran positions himself as an outlier, suggesting the benchmark rate sits far above neutral levels and calls for swift reductions to stimulate growth.

In contrast, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem endorsed the recent 25-basis-point cut as a safeguard for the labor market but warned of limited scope for additional moves. He views the economy as resilient, with inflation trending toward the two per cent target, and advocates a measured approach to avoid overstimulating demand.

These contrasting stances reflect internal debates at the Fed, where the dot plot from the latest meeting shows a split on 2025 projections. Some officials foresee one more cut, while others expect two, but many anticipate a pause thereafter. Markets will scrutinise Powell’s remarks for resolution, as his guidance often sets the tone for asset prices.

Wall Street rides the momentum

Wall Street captured this optimism on Monday, extending its rally with tech stocks at the forefront. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.44 per cent, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.70 per cent, reflecting broad-based gains driven by AI enthusiasm. Treasury yields ticked higher amid the Fed’s cautious rhetoric, with the 10-year note up 1.9 basis points to 4.147 per cent and the two-year yield increasing 3.1 basis points to 3.603 per cent.

This slight uptick suggests investors temper expectations for deep easing, focusing instead on balanced growth. The US dollar index slipped 0.31 per cent to 97.341, easing pressure on exports and commodities. Gold surged 1.7 per cent to a record US$3,746.70 per ounce, benefiting from sustained rate-cut bets and a weaker dollar.

Brent crude, however, dipped 0.2 per cent to US$66.57 per barrel, as oversupply fears overshadowed geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East. Asian equities showed mixed results on Monday but opened higher today, though Japanese markets closed for the Autumnal Equinox holiday. US futures point to a flat open, indicating a pause as participants await Powell’s insights.

Crypto pullback amid heavy liquidations

The cryptocurrency market presents a stark contrast, enduring a sharp pullback on Tuesday that erased recent gains. The total crypto market capitalisation fell two per cent to around US$3.9 trillion, with Bitcoin dropping toward US$112,000 amid heavy liquidations.

Over the past 24 hours, US$1.7 billion in positions liquidated, mostly longs, marking the year’s largest such event and accelerating the sell-off as leveraged trades unwound. Bitcoin traded down 1.8 per cent near US$112,561, Ethereum slid 3.3 per cent to US$4,197, BNB declined four per cent to US$991.3, and Solana tumbled 6.2 per cent to US$219.03. This downturn followed an initial boost from the Fed’s rate cut, which propelled altcoins over the weekend, but momentum faded quickly.

The announcement from the defunct FTX exchange about starting its third distribution of US$1.6 billion to claim holders on September 30 likely contributed to the cooling sentiment, as it introduces potential selling pressure from recipients cashing out. Despite the dip, macro signals remain supportive, with the Fed’s easing cycle expected to enhance liquidity and attract risk capital back into digital assets.

ETF inflows highlight institutional confidence

Bright spots emerge in crypto fund flows, offering a counterpoint to the volatility. Last week, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded US$556 million in net inflows, boosting total net assets to US$29.6 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew US$886.6 million, elevating assets to US$152.31 billion.

These inflows, continuing a four-week streak totalling US$3.9 billion for crypto funds overall, demonstrate sustained institutional interest even as prices fluctuate. Bitcoin ETFs alone saw US$887 million in the week ending September 19, underscoring confidence in the asset as a hedge against traditional market risks.

Ethereum funds outperformed in some sessions, with US$307 million in one day, suggesting rotation toward alternatives as Bitcoin consolidates. This capital influx aligns with broader trends, where lower rates make yield-generating crypto strategies more appealing compared to fixed-income options.

Bitcoin’s role in corporate balance sheets

Corporate developments further illustrate Bitcoin’s growing role as a treasury asset. Strive, Inc. and Semler Scientific announced a merger in an all-stock deal, valuing Semler at a 210 per cent premium, or approximately US$90.52 per share, based on the closing prices of September 19.

Semler shareholders receive 21.05 Strive Class A shares each, combining their Bitcoin holdings into a post-merger treasury exceeding 10,900 coins. Strive added 5,816 Bitcoin at an average US$116,047 per coin, totalling 5,886, enhancing the entity’s balance sheet with digital reserves. Separately, Bitcoin miner CleanSpark expanded its credit facility with Coinbase Prime by US$100 million, backed by its holdings.

With a market cap of US$3.84 billion and shares up 48 per cent year-to-date, CleanSpark plans to use the funds for energy portfolio growth, mining expansion, and high-performance computing. CEO Matt Schultz highlighted the move as a step toward diversifying data centre uses, supported by a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 4.37.

Outlook: Resilient but volatile

In my view, the current landscape points to a resilient yet volatile path forward for global markets. The Fed’s easing, coupled with AI-driven investment fervour, creates fertile ground for risk assets to thrive, potentially propelling equities and crypto to new heights in the fourth quarter.

Mixed Fed signals introduce short-term uncertainty. Miran’s aggressive stance could embolden bulls if adopted, while Musalem’s caution tempers over-exuberance. Crypto’s recent dip, fuelled by liquidations and FTX news, feels like a temporary flush amid strong ETF inflows and corporate adoption trends.

Companies like Strive and CleanSpark are treating Bitcoin as a core asset, signalling maturing institutional confidence, which could stabilise prices over time. Overall, I remain optimistic: survive the chop, and the liquidity wave from policy shifts might ignite a sustained bull run, rewarding those who position early in tech and digital innovations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/survive-the-chop-ride-the-wave-why-q4-could-deliver-a-surge-in-tech-and-digital-assets-20250923/

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Anndy Lian warns hidden fees could undermine free crypto listings

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian warns hidden fees could undermine free crypto listings

Anndy Lian, a respected figure in the cryptocurrency field, recently cautioned against the allure of free crypto exchange listings.

According to Lian, the initial appeal of free listings may lead to an accelerated downfall due to hidden charges that can quickly accumulate. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on building robust systems rather than rushing to get a cryptocurrency listed. This statement reflects a growing awareness in the crypto community regarding the underlying expenses tied to exchange listings, which are often overshadowed by immediate marketing gains. As the cryptocurrency market matures, Lian’s insights serve as a crucial reminder for projects to prioritize sustainable growth over instant visibility.

 

 

Lian’s cautionary perspective on exchange listings aligns with his consistent advocacy for prudent strategies within the crypto industry, notably his emphasis on safeguarding digital assets through measures such as the use of cold wallets. His multifaceted approach, which has also included lighter reflections on the intersection of fashion and market psychology, underscores the necessity for both security and sustainability as the sector navigates ongoing maturation.

 

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/548454-crypto-listing-fees/

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The rate cut rally: Earnings, gold, and Bitcoin in the balance

Anndy Lian
The rate cut rally: Earnings, gold, and Bitcoin in the balance

History shows that equities often deliver solid gains in the year following the start of such cycles, with the S&P 500 averaging around 14 per cent returns over 12 months based on past data from various cycles. Yet the initial month after the first cut tends to bring choppiness, as markets adjust to shifting monetary policy.

In this case, equities rallied strongly leading up to the cut, pushing the S&P 500 up 15 per cent in the past six months and a whopping 32 per cent from its yearly lows. I see this preemptive surge as a sign of market optimism, but it also raises flags for potential consolidation ahead.

Investors priced in these cuts long ago, so the real test comes from upcoming events like speeches from 10 FOMC governors and the PCE inflation report due on September 26. If inflation data surprises on the upside, volatility could spike, reminding everyone that even dovish Fed actions carry risks in an economy where growth projections and unemployment trends diverge sharply.

Fund managers’ bold bets on risk assets

Fund managers continue to lean heavily into risk assets, particularly equities, despite nagging worries about persistent inflation and a weakening US dollar. This positioning strikes me as bold, perhaps overly so, given the mixed signals from the broader economy. Many in the industry view artificial intelligence as a deflationary force that could counter current inflationary pressures, an idea that holds water when you consider how AI efficiencies might drive down costs in sectors like manufacturing and services.

Gold’s performance this year underscores these tensions, with prices surging 38 per cent year-to-date amid buoyant rate-cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainties. Research into recent gold price drivers points to factors like central bank buying, trade tensions, and lower interest rates making the metal more appealing as a hedge.

However, fund flows indicate much of this buying stems from speculation rather than genuine hedging, and professional asset managers maintain low exposure to gold and digital assets. In my view, this creates intriguing opportunities for savvy investors to buy on dips, especially as gold hit US$3685.30 per ounce recently. The under-allocation by institutions suggests room for further upside if economic headwinds intensify, but it also warns against chasing the rally without careful consideration.

Balancing strategy: Barbell approach and diversification

Strategic advice in this environment boils down to respecting the Fed’s direction without blindly following the herd. The central bank’s dovish stance supports companies with strong earnings growth, yet piling into mega-cap tech stocks at current valuations feels precarious. A barbell approach makes sense here, where you hold core positions in quality names, add selectively during pullbacks, and diversify into global themes and yield-focused plays.

Singapore’s yield stocks stand out, having outperformed the S&P 500 over both five- and ten-year periods, which bolsters the argument for regional diversification beyond US borders. I favour this strategy because it balances growth potential with income stability, particularly in a world where US-centric portfolios risk overexposure to domestic policy shifts.

With the Fed projecting more cuts on October 29 and December 12, lower rates could fuel corporate borrowing and expansion, but diverging economic indicators demand vigilance. Unemployment might tick up if growth slows more than expected, potentially pressuring equities despite the supportive policy backdrop.

Macro shifts and geopolitical influences

Turning to the broader macro picture, global risk sentiment holds firm thanks to the allure of additional rate cuts enhancing corporate earnings outlooks. The week ahead features the high-level General Debate at the 80th UN General Assembly starting Tuesday, with President Trump addressing the opening session and Fed Chair Powell discussing the economic outlook. These events could inject fresh narratives into markets, especially amid positive developments in US-China relations.

President Trump’s recent conversation with Chinese leadership led to a deal on the popular Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, allowing it to continue operations in the US under new controls, which eased some trade anxieties. Wall Street responded enthusiastically, with major indices hitting record highs on Friday, the Dow Jones up 0.37 per cent, S&P 500 up 0.49 per cent, and Nasdaq up 0.72 per cent.

Treasury yields edged higher, the 10-year at 4.127 per cent and the 2-year at 3.572 per cent, reflecting a mix of growth optimism and inflation watchfulness. The dollar index climbed 0.30 per cent to 97.64, while gold rose 1.1 per cent on rate-cut bets. Brent crude dipped 1.1 per cent to US$66.68 per barrel following EU sanctions on Russian oil vessels and buyers, highlighting ongoing energy market fragilities. Asian equities showed mixed results Friday and in early trading today, with US futures pointing to a lower open, suggesting caution amid these crosscurrents.

Bitcoin volatility and regulatory headwinds

Bitcoin’s recent dip adds another layer to the market mosaic, with the cryptocurrency falling 0.93 per cent to US$114,566 over the past 24 hours, lagging the broader crypto market’s 1.91 per cent decline. This underperformance stems from profit-taking after hitting recent highs, technical breakdowns near the US$115,400 resistance level, and regulatory uncertainties.

Drawing from similar patterns in September 2024 analyses, when Bitcoin traded around US$63,000 and faced consolidation phases, the current setup echoes familiar volatility drivers like leverage unwinds and momentum shifts. Over US$176 million in long positions were liquidated as prices tested US$115,000 support, amplifying the drop in a classic liquidity trap where open interest spiked 4.14 per cent to US$937 billion.

Traders piled in near resistance, only to face swift reversals, which I interpret as a healthy correction in an asset that has risen 81 per cent year-to-date. The failure to break above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$115,400 triggered algorithmic selling, with the MACD histogram still positive at +265 but RSI hovering around 51-53, indicating waning momentum.

Bulls must secure a close above that level to reclaim initiative; otherwise, a breach of US$114,500, the 30-day simple moving average, could cascade toward US$110,000.

Regulatory developments weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s short-term path, presenting a neutral but noisy influence. The US Treasury’s commentary on the GENIUS Act, issued on September 20, emphasises stablecoin regulations requiring full reserves in liquid assets like Treasuries and technological capabilities for freezing assets, aiming to foster innovation while curbing risks. This act, signed into law earlier this year, mandates issuers to comply with federal laws, potentially stabilising the crypto ecosystem but introducing oversight that cools institutional enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, the EU’s MiCA regulation drives exchange consolidation, enforcing consumer protections, market integrity, and restrictions on stablecoin use as exchange mediums, which impacts global flows. Exchanges adapting to MiCA gain credibility and access to unified EU markets, but the compliance shifts have slowed inflows, with ETF volumes dipping and minor outflows from products like GBTC.

In my opinion, these headwinds represent growing pains for the sector; long-term clarity should prove bullish by attracting more institutional capital, yet the immediate uncertainty often halts rallies, as seen in past cycles.

Closing thoughts: Cautious optimism ahead

Overall, the market’s resilience amid the Fed’s pivot impresses me, but I remain cautious about overextended positions in tech and crypto. The historical precedent of positive equity returns post-rate cuts offers encouragement, yet the unique blend of geopolitical events like the UNGA, US-China thawing via the TikTok agreement, and persistent inflation worries calls for measured optimism. Gold’s speculative surge and Bitcoin’s technical wobbles serve as barometers for broader risk appetite, suggesting investors diversify thoughtfully.

The barbell strategy aligns with my view that quality growers paired with yield plays provide a sturdy foundation, especially as Singapore’s outperformance demonstrates the value of global exposure. With PCE data looming and more Fed cuts on the horizon, markets could consolidate, but the underlying dovish support tilts the scales toward gradual upside. Still, chasing crowds in mega-caps or digital assets without waiting for pullbacks risks unnecessary pain; patience often rewards in these environments.

As we head into the final quarter, keeping an eye on unemployment trends and corporate earnings will prove crucial, potentially defining whether this cycle mirrors the average 14 per cent gain or veers into choppier territory. The economy’s divergences remind us that while the Fed guides, real-world data ultimately steers the ship.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-rate-cut-rally-earnings-gold-and-bitcoin-in-the-balance-20250922/

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Trump’s CBDC Ban: Safeguarding Privacy and Private Innovation

Anndy Lian
Trump’s CBDC Ban: Safeguarding Privacy and Private Innovation

President Donald Trump has issued an executive order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology,” marking a pivotal shift in U.S. digital asset policy. The order explicitly prohibits the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), rescinding prior initiatives under the Biden administration that emphasized CBDC exploration. This move aligns with Trump’s campaign pledges to prioritize privacy and private-sector innovation, framing CBDCs as threats to financial stability, privacy, and national sovereignty. The order also establishes the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, led by White House AI and crypto advisor David Sacks, to propose a federal regulatory framework for digital assets—including stablecoins—within six months. The group is tasked with evaluating the feasibility of a “strategic national digital asset stockpile,” potentially sourced from lawfully seized cryptocurrencies.

The executive order reverses regulatory hurdles for the crypto industry, notably the SEC’s reversal of Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121). The previous rule had imposed stringent capital requirements on banks offering crypto custody services, deterring institutional participation. The new Staff Accounting Bulletin 122 (SAB 122) adopts a more flexible approach, allowing banks to treat crypto custody obligations under standard contingent liability principles. This change reduces capital burdens, enabling financial institutions to offer institutional-grade custody solutions. The shift is expected to enhance competition with international firms and expand access to secure crypto services for U.S. customers.

Industry leaders and analysts have characterized Trump’s CBDC ban as a “game-changer,” emphasizing its potential to accelerate private-sector innovation in blockchain and stablecoins. Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain adviser, noted that the executive order signals a “structured” regulatory environment, potentially attracting institutional investors. The ban on CBDCs is seen as a vote of confidence in decentralized systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which could gain legitimacy and market traction. Additionally, the exclusion of the Federal Reserve and FDIC from crypto-related working groups is viewed as a step toward curbing past “debanking” efforts, where financial institutions were pressured to avoid crypto businesses.

The Working Group’s mandate includes addressing cross-border payment challenges, where stablecoins are increasingly seen as viable alternatives to CBDCs. By reducing transaction costs and enabling real-time settlements, stablecoins could revolutionize international trade. However, compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) regulations remains a hurdle. Payment providers must invest in robust KYC and monitoring systems to meet regulatory expectations, a challenge the unified federal framework aims to streamline. The order also mandates a 30-day review of existing regulations and 60-day recommendations for modifications, underscoring the administration’s urgency in fostering a pro-innovation environment.

While the CBDC ban has cleared the House via the National Defense Authorization Act, Senate approval is pending. Trump has already fulfilled several crypto-related campaign promises, including pardoning Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and appointing crypto-friendly SEC chair Paul Atkins. However, legislative efforts like the Clarity Act—which would enshrine self-hosted wallet protections—remain stalled. Market reactions have been mixed: Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown modest fluctuations, reflecting uncertainty around regulatory clarity and interest rate policies. Analysts suggest that lower rates could further bolster crypto adoption, though the Federal Reserve’s current stance remains neutral.

The executive order’s emphasis on blockchain innovation positions the U.S. to compete globally, particularly against China’s digital yuan initiative. With 140 countries exploring CBDCs, the U.S. pivot to private-sector solutions could differentiate its approach. Critics, however, warn of potential risks, including regulatory fragmentation if states maintain conflicting policies. The Working Group’s six-month timeline for a national framework is critical to ensuring coherence. For now, the order signals a strategic bet on blockchain’s transformative potential, balancing innovation with safeguards for financial integrity.

The administration’s dual focus on crypto stockpiles and regulatory clarity reflects a broader vision of digital asset leadership. By leveraging seized cryptocurrencies and fostering private-sector solutions, the U.S. aims to solidify its role in the evolving digital economy. While challenges remain—particularly in aligning AML/CTF compliance with decentralized systems—the executive order represents a decisive step toward redefining America’s digital financial landscape.

 

Source: https://www.ainvest.com/news/trump-cbdc-ban-safeguarding-privacy-private-innovation-2509/

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Soft landing or FOMO return? Markets rally on Fed cut amidst inflation caution

Anndy Lian
Soft landing or FOMO return? Markets rally on Fed cut amidst inflation caution

Global risk sentiment has improved markedly in recent days, driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates, which has injected fresh optimism into financial markets worldwide. Investors appear to view this move as a signal that policymakers are prioritising economic growth amid signs of a cooling labour market, even as inflation remains somewhat elevated. The cut has ripple effects across asset classes, from equities to commodities and cryptocurrencies, fostering an environment where risk-taking feels more rewarded. In this context, Wall Street has pushed to new heights, while emerging trends in digital assets suggest a sector on the cusp of broader institutional acceptance.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in its benchmark rate on September 17, bringing it down from previous levels and marking the first easing since late last year. This adjustment aims to support hiring and prevent a sharper slowdown in employment, as recent data showed initial jobless claims dropping significantly to 231,000 for the week ending September 13, the largest decline in nearly four years. Officials emphasised that the move addresses risks to the job market while keeping an eye on inflation, which ticked up slightly to 2.9 per cent in August but remains within a manageable range. Markets had largely anticipated this step, with probabilities exceeding 75 per cent leading up to the announcement, though some volatility ensued as traders digested the forward guidance indicating potential for two more cuts by year-end.

In contrast, the Bank of England opted to hold its key rate steady at four per cent on September 18, citing persistent inflationary pressures alongside uncertainties in growth and the jobs landscape. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain the status quo, with members expressing caution that the UK economy is not yet out of the woods on price stability. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is set to reveal its policy stance today, with expectations leaning toward no change from the current 0.5 per cent short-term rate, as officials navigate tariff risks and a potential US slowdown. These divergent approaches among major central banks highlight a global economy at a crossroads, where easing in one region could spill over to influence others.

Equity markets have responded positively overall, with US indices scaling fresh peaks on September 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.27 per cent to close above 46,000, the S&P 500 advanced 0.48 per cent to around 6,600, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 0.94 per cent to over 22,200, buoyed by strength in technology shares. This rally reflects investor confidence that lower borrowing costs will sustain corporate earnings and consumer spending. Yields on US Treasuries moved higher in response to the robust jobless claims figure, which eased fears of a rapid labour market deterioration. The 10-year Treasury note rose three basis points to above 4.11 per cent, while the 2-year yield increased two basis points to 3.56 per cent. Such movements suggest markets are pricing in a soft landing rather than a recession, though the bond market’s reaction also underscores ongoing sensitivity to economic data.

Currency and commodity dynamics have shifted as well. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.49 per cent to 97.35, benefiting from the perception of relative US economic resilience amid global uncertainties. Gold prices dipped 0.4 per cent to US$3,643.40 per ounce, as profit-taking followed a recent record high, with the metal’s appeal dimming slightly in a risk-on environment. Brent crude oil fell 0.9 per cent to US$67.32 per barrel, pressured by concerns over US demand despite the rate cut’s potential to stimulate activity. These declines illustrate how commodities are caught between supportive monetary policy and lingering worries about global growth, particularly with trade tensions simmering.

Asian equities displayed a mixed performance, trimming some gains post the Fed’s meeting but still showing resilience in key benchmarks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 crossed the 45,000 threshold for the first time, closing higher amid a tech-led advance, reflecting spillover optimism from US markets. Early trading today saw varied movements across the region, with US futures pointing to a positive open, suggesting the upbeat sentiment may persist. This regional response highlights the increasing interconnectedness of global markets, with policy shifts in the US often setting the tone for Asia’s trading sessions.

Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have shown remarkable vigour, with Bitcoin maintaining momentum around US$117,000 despite initial sluggishness following the rate cut. Technical indicators point to a bullish setup, with a trend line support at US$115,800 and recent breaks above resistances at US$116,200 and US$116,500. The price peaked at US$117,920 before a minor retracement to the 50 per cent Fibonacci level near US$116,750. Analysts anticipate resistance at US$117,500 and US$117,850, with a clear breach of US$118,000 potentially propelling it toward US$118,500 or even US$118,800. On-chain data reveals strong institutional accumulation, with ETF flows and whale activity supporting the floor. Social media discussions on platforms such as X highlight this breakout potential, with traders noting that a close above US$117,000 on high volume could ignite further upside. However, overbought signals from the RSI above 88 suggest a possible short-term pullback, with supports at US$116,550 and US$115,800 if resistance holds firm.

Solana has emerged as a standout performer, rallying beyond US$250, its highest in nearly eight months, and outperforming the altcoin market by 25 per cent over the past month. Institutional adoption drives this surge, with corporations holding over 17 million SOL tokens valued at US$4.3 billion. Notable players include Forward Industries with 6.82 million SOL, Sharps Technology at 2.14 million, and others like Defi Development Corp and Upexi Inc., nearing 2 million each. Helius Medical Technologies’ $500 million SOL treasury program echoes strategies like MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin reserves, bolstering SOL’s case as a reserve asset. The blockchain’s total value locked stands at US$14.6 billion, making it the second-largest DeFi ecosystem, while a 6.8 per cent staking yield surpasses Ethereum’s 2.9 per cent. Options data shows higher call premiums, indicating bullish trader sentiment, with predictions eyeing US$300 as the next target amid ETF approval hopes. X conversations amplify this enthusiasm, with users pointing to treasury strategies and network upgrades as catalysts.

Regulatory developments have further catalysed crypto’s ascent. The US and UK signed a memorandum to collaborate on quantum computing and AI, impacting blockchain security. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed confidence in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passing through Congress, clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC. Australia’s ASIC eased stablecoin licensing, while the SEC approved Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund—the first multi-asset crypto ETF and proposed rule changes to expedite ETF listings. These steps signal a maturing framework, reducing uncertainty and attracting institutional capital.

From my perspective, this moment feels pivotal for cryptocurrencies. The convergence of monetary easing, regulatory clarity, and institutional inflows positions digital assets for sustained growth, potentially eclipsing traditional markets in volatility but also in returns. Bitcoin’s resilience above US$117,000 amid broader economic shifts suggests it’s evolving from a speculative play to a legitimate hedge, much like gold in past cycles. I remain cautious. Rate cuts don’t erase risks like stagflation or geopolitical tensions, and crypto’s history of sharp corrections warrants prudence. Investors should diversify their portfolios and closely monitor macroeconomic indicators.

Source: https://e27.co/soft-landing-or-fomo-return-markets-rally-on-fed-cut-amidst-inflation-caution-20250919/

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