Anndy Lian's Blog, page 4
November 11, 2025
Why Bitcoin decoupled from Nasdaq and what it means for the US$112K breakout
Anndy Lian
Why Bitcoin decoupled from Nasdaq and what it means for the US$112K breakout

The global macro environment entered a pivotal inflexion point this week as political momentum gathered behind a bipartisan Senate effort to end the longest government shutdown in US history. After 42 days without full federal operations, lawmakers cleared a critical procedural hurdle late Sunday, setting the stage for a potential return to normalcy. President Donald Trump signalled his support for the compromise on Monday, catalysing a broad-based rally across risk assets.
US equity markets responded with conviction, as the Nasdaq soared by 2.27 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 1.54 per cent, and even the more conservative Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.81 per cent. The relief extended to fixed income markets, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up by two basis points to 4.11 per cent, reflecting diminished safe-haven demand and renewed confidence in fiscal stability.
While equity and bond markets absorbed the news through classic risk-on behaviour, the cryptocurrency market exhibited a more nuanced reaction. Over the last 24 hours, the total crypto market cap rose 0.74 per cent, building on a 1.89 per cent weekly gain despite the lingering shadow of macro uncertainty. This resilience stemmed not from blind optimism, but from a confluence of three distinct catalysts that spoke directly to longstanding structural challenges within the digital asset ecosystem: regulatory clarity, DeFi tokenomics innovation, and Bitcoin’s evolving relationship with macro liquidity conditions.
The first driver emerged from Capitol Hill, where a bipartisan Senate proposal gained traction to transfer primary regulatory authority over digital assets from the Securities and Exchange Commission to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This legislative manoeuvre directly addresses a core grievance within the crypto industry: the SEC’s enforcement-first posture, which many developers, investors, and entrepreneurs view as hostile to innovation. By designating most digital tokens as commodities rather than securities, the bill would place them under the CFTC’s more predictable, principles-based framework.
The market interpreted this shift as a potential inflexion point for institutional adoption. Companies like Coinbase, which have long operated under the threat of SEC litigation, saw their equities rise alongside major tokens such as Ethereum, whose classification has been a source of legal ambiguity. The proposal’s success hinges on maintaining bipartisan support in a fractured Congress, but its mere introduction has already recalibrated market sentiment toward a more constructive outlook on US regulatory policy.
Simultaneously, DeFi sentiment received a powerful jolt from Uniswap, the leading decentralised exchange by volume. The Uniswap Labs team and the Uniswap Foundation introduced a comprehensive restructuring plan dubbed UNIfication, which proposes activating a long-dormant protocol fee switch and implementing a systematic token burn mechanism. Central to the plan is a one-time retroactive burn of 100 million UNI tokens, equivalent to 16 per cent of the total supply, alongside ongoing burns funded by a share of trading and Unichain fees. This directly tackles a foundational criticism of the UNI token: its lack of clear utility and inflationary pressure due to vesting schedules. By redirecting protocol revenue to token holders through buybacks and burns, the proposal aligns incentives across users, liquidity providers, and long-term stakeholders.
The market response was immediate and emphatic, with UNI surging 38 per cent and catalysing broad-based gains across the DeFi sector, including 12 per cent for AAVE and 22 per cent for CAKE. Derivatives volume for DeFi tokens spiked 133 per cent week-over-week, signalling renewed speculative and hedging interest. The ultimate test will come via on-chain governance, where token holders must approve the proposal. A rejection could trigger sharp profit-taking, but the very act of proposing such a bold realignment has reignited optimism about DeFi’s capacity for self-improvement and value accrual.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin reclaimed the US$106,000 level, drawing support from both macro relief and technical dynamics. The resolution of the government shutdown removes a near-term liquidity overhang that had likely suppressed institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. With federal operations expected to resume, market participants anticipate a resumption of ETF inflows, which have totalled US$7.8 billion in the third quarter of 2025 alone. The rally also exhibits signs of fragility. Open interest in Bitcoin futures declined by 6.3 per cent, suggesting that leveraged long positions remain cautious.
More intriguingly, the 24-hour correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq turned slightly negative at negative 0.12, indicating a subtle decoupling from traditional tech equities. This hints at Bitcoin’s evolving narrative, not merely as a risky tech proxy, but as a distinct macro asset influenced by its own supply dynamics, institutional demand, and on-chain activity. Technical analysts now eye the US$112,000 resistance level, where a decisive breakout could unleash more than US$two billion in long liquidations, potentially accelerating the move higher.
Despite these bullish undercurrents, the broader sentiment remains restrained. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 31, deep in fear territory, and Bitcoin dominance declined by 0.1 per cent on the day, suggesting that capital rotation into altcoins remains tentative. This fragility underscores the market’s awareness that political and protocol-level promises must still translate into concrete outcomes.
The Senate bill transferring oversight to the CFTC faces a long legislative road, and the Uniswap governance vote could fracture consensus. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rates remains uncertain, with soft US economic data lifting gold to US$4,090.96 per ounce and reinforcing expectations of future rate cuts, yet Treasury yields still edged higher on shutdown resolution hopes.
In summary, today’s market gains reflect a delicate balance between hope and caution. Regulatory optimism surrounding the CFTC proposal, DeFi innovation via Uniswap’s tokenomics overhaul, and macro relief from the impending end of the government shutdown have combined to lift asset prices. The sustainability of this rally, particularly of altcoin momentum, will depend on whether these catalysts materialise into real-world changes.
Traders now watch two critical events: the outcome of UNI’s on-chain governance vote and the political trajectory of the bipartisan CFTC bill. Their success or failure will determine whether this week’s optimism evolves into a durable bull phase or fades as another false dawn in crypto’s volatile lifecycle.
Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoin-decoupled-from-nasdaq-and-what-it-means-for-the-us112k-breakout-20251111/
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November 10, 2025
From shutdown to surge: How macro relief is lifting crypto and equities
Anndy Lian
From shutdown to surge: How macro relief is lifting crypto and equities

Equity markets hover at critical technical junctures while macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the spectre of a prolonged US government shutdown, have only just begun to recede. Cryptocurrency markets, deeply intertwined with broader risk sentiment, have rebounded modestly, buoyed by improved macro conditions and renewed institutional interest in Layer 1 infrastructure. Beneath the surface, divergences in both traditional and digital asset markets suggest that the current calm may be temporary and highly contingent on incoming data, policy developments, and capital flows that remain in flux.
Equity markets continue to tread carefully around key technical support levels. The S&P 500, a bellwether for global investor sentiment, finds itself sandwiched between its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, zones that often act as fulcrums between continuation and reversal. Although recent price action has been subdued, the possibility of a year-end rally persists, especially given the surprisingly strong third-quarter earnings results that delivered a 15 per cent year-over-year profit growth across the index. This strength is increasingly concentrated and increasingly fragile.
The so-called Magnificent 7, once a monolithic engine of market returns, now exhibit stark performance divergence. Tesla, emblematic of this fragmentation, encapsulates the broader uncertainty. Analyst forecasts span from bullish projections of a 6x price surge to bearish scenarios anticipating steep corrections. Such volatility in outlook underscores a market increasingly sceptical of uniform growth assumptions and more attuned to company-specific fundamentals, execution risk, and macro dependencies.
This skepticism is well-founded. While optimism around artificial intelligence remains intact, particularly in the context of long-term structural transformation, the near-term outlook for capital expenditure shows signs of potential deceleration. The year 2026 may witness a slowdown in AI-related capex, especially in downstream sectors where valuations appear stretched relative to near-term revenue visibility.
Compounding this risk is the fact that many of the Magnificent 7 remain deeply tethered to consumer behavior, whether through digital advertising, cloud services, or hardware sales. Should broader economic conditions falter, driven by persistent inflation, tighter credit conditions, or geopolitical shocks, their vaunted cash flow strength could erode faster than anticipated. Investors would be wise to adopt a selective approach, distinguishing between companies with resilient business models and those riding speculative momentum.
Currency markets add another layer of complexity. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had been testing the psychologically significant 100 level, pulled back slightly to 99.60 following news of a Senate resolution to end the 40-day government shutdown. The dollar remains strong, and positioning appears crowded. Such crowding increases the risk of sharp reversals should upcoming macro data or, more likely, signals from the Federal Reserve shift market expectations. A stronger dollar typically acts as a headwind for US multinational earnings and emerging market assets alike, and its influence on capital flows cannot be overstated. In the context of crypto, where dollar strength often inversely correlates with asset prices, this dynamic remains a critical variable.
Global themes further complicate the narrative. China’s strategic push into humanoid robotics, exemplified by XPENG’s IRON project, signals a broader ambition to dominate next-generation industrial and consumer technologies. Simultaneously, Chinese companies are accelerating overseas expansion, challenging incumbents in markets from Southeast Asia to Latin America. India, by contrast, has underperformed relative to both China and Japan, raising questions about its near-term growth inflexion and policy responsiveness. In such an environment, a barbell strategy, combining exposure to large-cap growth leaders with defensively positioned, dividend-paying equities, offers a prudent approach to navigating regional and sectoral divergences.
The macro backdrop improved meaningfully over the weekend with the Senate’s bipartisan agreement to end the government shutdown, the longest in US history. This resolution directly addresses a significant source of liquidity drain. Since October 10, approximately US$700 billion in economic activity has been disrupted or delayed, constraining both consumer and institutional risk appetite. With the shutdown concluded, capital can begin to reallocate toward risk assets, a dynamic already reflected in the 4.83 per cent 24-hour gain in crypto markets following a 3.94 per cent weekly loss. Bitcoin’s 0.70 seven-day correlation with the S&P 500 underscores how tightly crypto remains linked to traditional market sentiment. Relief in one arena quickly transmits to the other.
Layer 1 ecosystems have emerged as a focal point of this renewed optimism. Solana’s 4.42 per cent sector gain was catalysed by Western Union’s announcement that it will launch a US dollar stablecoin exclusively on Solana in the first quarter of 2026. This is not a speculative foray but a strategic institutional endorsement of Solana’s scalability and throughput.
Similarly, Ethereum received a significant vote of confidence through EigenCloud’s US$200 million deployment of ETH-based infrastructure to support AI systems. These developments indicate that blockchain is no longer merely a speculative playground but an operational backbone for real-world financial and technological infrastructure. Institutional adoption of this magnitude validates the long-term utility of high-performance Layer 1 networks and draws capital toward ecosystems demonstrating clear use cases and execution capability.
Technically, the crypto market rebounded from oversold territory, with the 14-day RSI at 37.4 signalling exhaustion among sellers. Bitcoin retested its 50-week moving average near the US$103,000 level, a zone that often acts as a magnet for price action. Spot trading volume rose 14 per cent to US$159 billion, while derivatives open interest climbed 5.76 per cent, suggesting that traders are cautiously re-engaging.
This optimism remains tempered. Ethereum ETFs recorded US$466 million in outflows on November 7 alone, highlighting persistent institutional scepticism toward ETH despite its technological advancements. Moreover, the market must sustain a close above the seven-day simple moving average at US$3.46 trillion in total market cap to confirm bullish momentum. Failure to do so could trigger a retest of the US$3.37 trillion Fibonacci support level.
Gold’s rise to US$4,007 per ounce amid dollar softening and shutdown-related uncertainty further illustrates the fragile nature of current sentiment. Safe-haven demand remains elevated, even as risk assets rally. This duality, bullish price action coexisting with defensive positioning, is a hallmark of late-cycle or transitional market regimes.
Whether Bitcoin can hold above US$105,000 in this environment depends not only on technicals but on broader macro confirmation. Sustained liquidity normalisation, stable dollar conditions, and continued institutional validation of blockchain infrastructure must all align. Until those pillars solidify, the relief rally, while welcome, should be approached with disciplined risk management and selective exposure.
Source: https://e27.co/from-shutdown-to-surge-how-macro-relief-is-lifting-crypto-and-equities-20251110/
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Satoshi Club: Anndy Lian on Memecoins, Market Cycles, and the Power of Community in Crypto
Anndy Lian
Satoshi Club: Anndy Lian on Memecoins, Market Cycles, and the Power of Community in Crypto

In a recent episode of Satoshi Club, Anndy Lian, bestselling author, early crypto adopter since 2012, and former advisor to governments and enterprises like Hyundai, offered a candid and layered perspective on the current state of the cryptocurrency market, the misunderstood role of memecoins, and what retail investors and projects should do to navigate today’s turbulent conditions.
Market Outlook: Patience Until Q1 2026Lian opened with a sober but strategic view on the current market downturn. Acknowledging the pain of the “bloodbath,” he argued it is still too early to buy aggressively. According to Lian, the next meaningful altcoin or memecoin season is likely to erupt in Q1 2026, potentially catalyzed by macro tailwinds such as renewed quantitative easing or a bullish policy shift under a potential Trump administration. Until then, he advised investors to wait for clear upward signals before re-entering the market. “Right now, it’s just too risky,” he warned, cautioning that assets could still fall another 90% twice over.
Memecoins as the True Gateway for RetailOne of Lian’s most provocative insights is his staunch defense of memecoins, not as scams, but as the primary on-ramp for retail participation. Contrary to conventional wisdom that utility tokens or blue chips should lead retail adoption, Lian argued that memecoins win through simplicity, community, and asymmetric upside.
“All they need to do is see the meme. If they like it, they can relate to it… there’s no need to think about what utility it has or what business model it follows.”
He emphasized that established utility projects often suffer from low real user engagement, even among top-20 blockchains. By contrast, chains like Ethereum, Solana, and Base thrive because they have genuine communities and transactional activity, not just TVL numbers.
Why Memecoins Work: Community Over CodeLian stressed that community is the bedrock of sustainable crypto projects, more so than technical whitepapers or VC backing. He criticized projects that launch with no organic following and rely solely on paid hype, noting that such tokens inevitably collapse once early liquidity dries up.
“If they only have money but no community, the price will fall like crazy, even if listed on Binance.”
His litmus test for authentic communities? Engagement quality on X (Twitter): real comments (not bot spam like “love you dog love you dog”), organic likes, and wallet distribution showing real holders with meaningful stakes, not just micro-transactions from fake accounts. He even revealed how VCs use “video cams” to monitor post engagement in real time to detect artificial inflation.
Retail Strategy: Small Bets, Big ConvictionFor the average retail investor with $1,000 to play, Lian advised not to fear memecoins, but to play smart. His personal strategy: allocate across 10 promising new memecoins per cycle with a small group of trusted peers. The goal is not to chase every trend but to capture one or two 100x+ runners that offset the losers.
“As long as one hits and becomes a big runner, it’s more rewarding than putting money in Ethereum hoping for a 5% gain.”
He also differentiated between “toilet paper hands”, retail traders who sell at the first 20% profit, and those with real conviction. The latter, he argued, are essential to sustain any meme rally. Without them, pumps fizzle out instantly.
Project Launch Playbook in a Bear MarketFor new projects, Lian outlined a pragmatic roadmap tailored to today’s low-liquidity environment:
Secure strong VC backing and control initial token supply.Launch via Binance Alpha or similar tiered listings to gain visibility without overexposure.Use airdrops and KOLs (key opinion leaders) for early awareness, but avoid big marketing splashes until market sentiment turns green.Go sideways initially, preserving capital until a broader market bounce enables a coordinated pump with real buyers.He noted that marketing is cheapest now due to low noise, but only well-funded teams should attempt it. “If you have $100 million in your piggy bank and are willing to spend it, you could become the next PEPE,” he said half-jokingly, underscoring the new reality of capital-intensive memecoin launches.
Institutional Signals and Macro DependenceLian tied crypto’s fate to broader macro forces. He watches institutional players like Michael Saylor and Tom Lee as sentiment barometers. If they keep buying, the market likely has bottomed. But more critically, he believes U.S. fiscal policy will dictate crypto’s next leg up.
“Crypto will not bounce back if the U.S. screws up this time… But if Trump or any positive news emerges, the pump will be gradual, leading to a sharp altcoin surge in Q1.”
He warned that a deep recession would force even Saylor to sell, but for now, confidence in eventual stimulus keeps the long-term thesis intact.
Final Thought: Crypto Needs Educators, Not Just TradersThroughout the conversation, Lian returned to a humanistic theme: crypto’s greatest need is education and community stewardship. He recounted correcting misconceptions on X, from confusing spot liquidations to misunderstanding ADL (Auto-Deleveraging) mechanisms, because “spreading false info makes the whole industry look stupid.”
His mission? To empower retail users with knowledge, not just trading tips. Whether hosting 14-hour Twitter Spaces or mentoring newcomers from Africa, he sees himself as a bridge, not a gatekeeper.
“I’m not here to squeeze people’s money. I want to provide the best knowledge so retail can grow, believe in something, and work on something.”
In a market often driven by greed and FOMO, Anndy Lian’s message stands out: real value comes from community, conviction, and clarity, not just charts and coins.
The post Satoshi Club: Anndy Lian on Memecoins, Market Cycles, and the Power of Community in Crypto appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.
November 8, 2025
Story: Anndy Lian and the Fourth Web
Anndy Lian
Story: Anndy Lian and the Fourth Web

Anndy Lian, a visionary, explores the concept of Web 4.0, moving beyond information, connection, and ownership to a web of understanding and digital empathy. He travels the world, speaking with diverse people, to build a blueprint for how humans and machines can grow together, guided by compassion and emotional intelligence.
Source: https://giggleacademy.com/story/detail/737712829304902
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November 6, 2025
Tech crash 2.0: AI hype meets labour reality as Nasdaq and Bitcoin tumble in tandem
Anndy Lian
Tech crash 2.0: AI hype meets labour reality as Nasdaq and Bitcoin tumble in tandem
At the heart of this turmoil lies a potent mix of deteriorating labour market conditions, evaporating liquidity in digital asset markets, and a sharp repricing of artificial intelligence-driven equity valuations that had been stretched to unsustainable levels. The data paints a coherent picture of a market losing its nerve, with investors rapidly rotating out of speculative assets and into safer havens, even as technical indicators flash warnings of oversold conditions that may soon invite a countertrend move.The trigger for this week’s pullback was unequivocally the labour market report from Challenger, Grey & Christmas, which revealed that US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October 2025. This figure represents a staggering 175 per cent increase compared to the same month last year and marks the highest number of October layoffs since 2003.
The scale of these cuts, driven by a combination of slowing consumer and corporate spending and the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence for cost optimisation, sent shockwaves through equity markets already anxious about lofty valuations in the tech sector. The data provided tangible evidence of an economic slowdown that many investors had previously dismissed as transitory, forcing a reassessment of the resilience of the US economy in the face of persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates.
This reassessment was immediately reflected in the performance of US equities on Thursday, November 6, 2025. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the selloff, plummeting 1.9 per cent, while the broader S&P 500 declined by 1.1 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8 per cent. The sharp move lower in the Nasdaq, in particular, was a direct consequence of investors taking profits from AI-related stocks that had powered the market’s rally for much of the year.
The behaviour of the US Treasury market further validated this flight from risk. As investors sought safety, yields on government debt fell sharply. The yield on the two-year Treasury note dropped by 7.2 basis points to settle at 3.557 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined by 7.6 basis points to close at 4.083 per cent. This rally in bonds signalled growing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may be nearing its end, or that a more severe economic downturn could be on the horizon, prompting a potential pivot in monetary policy.
The US Dollar Index, a traditional safe-haven asset, paradoxically weakened, falling by 0.5 per cent to 99.71. This counterintuitive move can be interpreted as a sign that the market’s fear is not of a global crisis that would boost demand for the dollar, but rather a more domestic US-centric slowdown. In such a scenario, the expectation of future rate cuts by the Fed outweighs the currency’s safe-haven appeal. This narrative was reinforced by the action in the commodities market.
Gold, the ultimate monetary hedge, saw its price rise to US$4,001 per ounce, a gain of 1.5 per cent, as capital rotated into a store of value perceived to be outside the direct influence of central bank policy. Conversely, oil prices weakened as the prospect of a US economic slowdown dented demand expectations. Brent crude settled at US$63.38 per barrel, down 0.2 per cent, a move exacerbated by Saudi Arabia’s decision to lower the official selling prices of its crude oil to Asian customers, a clear signal of its own concerns over future demand.
In the digital asset space, the market’s reaction was swift and severe. The crypto market fell 1.65 per cent over the last 24 hours, extending a 7.2 per cent weekly loss. This selloff was not driven by a single factor but by a perfect storm of negative catalysts. The primary trigger was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure.
For weeks, the US$100,000 level had served as a critical psychological and structural support. When Bitcoin’s price dropped below this key threshold, it activated a cascade of automated sell orders from a fragile market that had been clinging to hope. This breakdown was confirmed by its close below its 365-day moving average at US$102,000, a long-term trend indicator whose breach is a serious bearish signal for long-term investors.
Compounding this technical failure was a dramatic evaporation of market liquidity. In an environment of fear, traders became unwilling to take on risk. Derivatives volume plunged by 39 per cent in 24 hours, with open interest collapsing to its lowest level since May 2025.
The spot-to-perpetual trading ratio of 0.24, a metric that shows the dominance of leveraged trading over simple spot transactions, indicated that traders were not just selling but were also actively avoiding any form of leveraged position. This lack of liquidity amplified the price moves, creating a negative feedback loop where a small sell order could create a disproportionately large price drop due to the absence of buyers.
The behaviour of the spot Bitcoin ETFs provided the most compelling evidence of a macro-driven selloff. This week, these funds saw a staggering US$3.6 billion in net redemptions, marking one of the worst outflow streaks since their inception. This was not a retail-driven panic but a wholesale retreat by institutional investors. These large players, who are more attuned to macroeconomic signals and portfolio risk management, used the ETFs as a convenient vehicle to exit their crypto exposure en masse.
Their actions decisively tethered the fate of the entire crypto market to that of the Nasdaq, with the two assets showing a near-perfect 0.95 correlation this week. This link demonstrates that for the current market cycle, crypto is being treated not as a separate, uncorrelated asset class, but as a high-beta, risk-on component of the broader technology and growth equity complex.
The path forward for the markets is now precariously balanced on a knife’s edge. The current oversold conditions in both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, with the latter’s RSI at a low 31.5, suggest that a short-term bounce is a distinct possibility. A sustained recovery will require a fundamental shift in the underlying narrative. For equities, that would mean evidence that the labour market is stabilising or that the Fed is ready to signal a clear pivot towards rate cuts.
For Bitcoin, the critical threshold is a decisive daily close back above the US$100,000 level to invalidate the bearish technical structure, coupled with a halt to the ETF outflows and a return of institutional confidence. Until these conditions are met, the market will remain vulnerable to any further negative macroeconomic data, and the current risk-off environment is likely to persist.
Source: https://e27.co/tech-crash-2-0-ai-hype-meets-labour-reality-as-nasdaq-and-bitcoin-tumble-in-tandem-20251107/
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Crypto rebounds as labour data calms markets but is the rally sustainable?
Anndy Lian
Crypto rebounds as labour data calms markets but is the rally sustainable?

At first glance, the improvement in global risk appetite appears to stem from a stabilising US labour market, a critical pillar in the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate framework. The ADP employment report for October delivered a modest but symbolically important reversal, showing a net addition of 42,000 private-sector jobs after September’s sharply revised contraction of 29,000, itself an improvement from the initially reported 32,000 decline. This sequential recovery, however slight, offers a glimmer of resilience against the backdrop of persistent inflation concerns and lingering uncertainty around the terminal interest rate.
Equity markets responded with measured enthusiasm. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.4 per cent, the Dow Jones climbed 0.5 per cent, and the Nasdaq led the charge with a 0.7 per cent advance. This rebound followed a tech-heavy selloff that had tested investor resolve, and the bounce suggests the presence of committed dip buyers willing to step in at lower levels. The market’s fragility remains evident in the movement of US Treasury yields, which edged higher across the curve.
The two-year yield rose by 5.4 basis points to close at 3.629 per cent, while the 10-year yield jumped 7.4 basis points to 4.159 per cent. Higher yields typically signal either expectations of stronger growth or stickier inflation, both of which could complicate the Fed’s path toward rate cuts in early 2026. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index held steady at 100.17, reflecting a balanced tug-of-war between softening safe-haven demand and the dollar’s relative yield advantage.
In commodities, gold advanced 1.2 per cent to settle at US$3979 per ounce, benefiting from the dollar’s temporary flatlining and ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to underpin safe-haven demand. Crude oil told a different story. Brent crude dropped 1.4 per cent to US$63.52 per barrel after the Energy Information Administration reported the largest weekly build in US crude stockpiles since July. This inventory surge underscores weakening near-term demand expectations, possibly tied to China’s tepid economic recovery and Europe’s stagnation, and adds downward pressure on energy markets already grappling with oversupply concerns.
Turning to Asia, equity markets closed mixed on Wednesday but opened higher in early Thursday trading, reflecting spillover optimism from the US session. US equity index futures now point to a lower open, hinting at profit-taking or renewed caution as traders digest the week’s data flow and await the Bank of England’s policy decision. The BOE is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.0 per cent, a move that would align with the central bank’s recent dovish tilt amid cooling UK inflation and fragile growth.
Against this macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market staged a modest but notable recovery, rising 2.15 per cent over the past 24 hours. This bounce comes after a punishing weekly decline of 7.8 per cent and a steep monthly drop of 18.25 per cent, suggesting that the asset class may have reached a point of technical and psychological exhaustion. Three interlocking forces appear to be driving this rebound: regulatory reprieve, ETF-related optimism, and a classic technical reset in overextended short positions.
The most immediate catalyst emerged from an unexpected source: the US government shutdown. This administrative pause has temporarily halted the Securities and Exchange Commission’s aggressive probe into the crypto treasury holdings of over 200 publicly traded companies. While shutdowns rarely produce positive market outcomes, this one inadvertently created a window of regulatory calm.
Traders seized on the pause as a signal that enforcement actions, particularly those targeting corporate crypto adoption, would be delayed, if not softened. The psychological relief was enough to lift risk appetite across the board, allowing Bitcoin and key altcoins to claw back from multi-week lows. This respite remains contingent. Once the shutdown ends and the SEC resumes operations, the threat of renewed scrutiny could quickly resurface, potentially triggering another wave of volatility.
A second, more structural driver lies in the evolving landscape of crypto exchange-traded funds. Franklin Templeton’s recent filing of an updated XRP ETF application, utilising the auto-effective S-1 mechanism previously deployed by Bitwise and Canary Capital, marks a significant, if cautious, step toward broader institutional acceptance. The move signals that major asset managers continue to explore avenues to offer crypto exposure through regulated vehicles, even for assets entangled in legal ambiguity. XRP’s unique situation casts a long shadow.
The unresolved SEC versus Ripple case continues to deter full-scale institutional endorsement, and while XRP itself rose 2.3 per cent in response to the ETF news, outpacing Bitcoin’s 1.9 per cent gain, the market’s reaction remained measured. Investors recognise that without a definitive legal resolution, any ETF approval for XRP would face heightened regulatory resistance, limiting its near-term upside potential.
Finally, the rally gained momentum from technical factors rooted in market structure. The total crypto market capitalisation, now at US$3.44 trillion, bounced precisely off the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of its recent decline, which sat at US$3.37 trillion, a confluence that often attracts algorithmic and discretionary buyers alike. Simultaneously, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed to 35.87, exiting deeply oversold territory and signalling a reduction in bearish momentum. This technical rebound was amplified by forced short-covering.
As prices began to rise, leveraged short positions faced liquidation, creating a feedback loop that accelerated the upward move. Open interest in perpetual futures contracts increased by 3.11 per cent, indicating fresh capital entering the market. Scepticism lingers: funding rates remain negative at -0.0035 per cent, suggesting that traders are still reluctant to pay a premium to maintain long positions, preferring instead to collect fees from overextended shorts.
Looking ahead, the sustainability of this rally hinges on two competing forces. On one side, the near-perfect correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq, currently at 0.96, ties Bitcoin’s fate to the broader tech sector’s performance. Any stumble in US equities, particularly among mega-cap tech stocks, will likely drag crypto lower. Compounding this vulnerability, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of US$1.3 billion over the past week, reflecting institutional caution amid macro uncertainty.
On the other side, the potential resumption of ETF approvals, especially for Ethereum or other major assets, could reignite bullish momentum. Similarly, a prolonged regulatory lull might allow the market to rebuild positioning without the spectre of enforcement actions.
For now, traders must watch key levels. Bitcoin faces formidable resistance near US$104,000, a psychological and technical barrier that has repelled previous rallies. Meanwhile, shifts in altcoin liquidity, particularly in assets like XRP, Solana, and Ethereum, will offer clues about whether this bounce evolves into a broader market rotation or remains a fleeting technical correction.
The macro environment offers neither clear tailwinds nor unambiguous headwinds. Instead, it presents a narrow corridor of opportunity, flanked by regulatory uncertainty, monetary policy crosscurrents, and fragile sentiment. Navigating this terrain will require precision, patience, and a keen eye on both data and discretion.
Source: https://e27.co/crypto-rebounds-as-labour-data-calms-markets-but-is-the-rally-sustainable-20251106/
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October 18, 2025
The Treasury Trap: How Crypto-Backed Stocks Are Trading Below Their Own Assets
Anndy Lian
The Treasury Trap: How Crypto-Backed Stocks Are Trading Below Their Own Assets

I’ve looked into the financial markets for over two decades, from the dot-com bubble to the global financial crisis, from the rise of passive ETFs to the wild west of crypto winters. But nothing in my career has felt quite as structurally precarious as the current collapse of the digital asset treasury company (DATC) model. It’s not just a market correction. It’s the implosion of a financial illusion built on leverage, narrative, and a dangerous assumption that arbitrage would hold forever. Today, the numbers speak for themselves: market-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) ratios, the very heartbeat of these firms, are collapsing. Strategy, once the gold standard, now trades near an mNAV of 1.5. That might sound healthy until you realize it’s a steep discount from the 3x, 4x, even 5x premiums it once commanded. Worse, companies like Bitmine Immersion and SharpLink have already dipped below 1.0, meaning their stock prices are now less than the value of the Bitcoin or Ethereum they claim to hold. In plain terms, you could buy their shares, liquidate the company, and walk away with more crypto than the market is currently pricing in. That’s not a bargain, it’s a red flag waving violently in a hurricane.
Why is this happening? Because the model is breaking. Not bending. Breaking. And the cracks are spreading fast.
At the core of the rot is nonstop dilution. These companies rely heavily on At-The-Market (ATM) equity programs to raise capital. The idea was elegant in theory: when the stock trades above NAV, issue new shares, use the proceeds to buy more BTC or ETH, and watch the cycle compound. But in practice, it’s a self-cannibalizing machine. Every time they flood the market with new shares, Forward Industries, for instance, has an ATM program sized at $4 billion, the share price gets hammered by supply overload. This happens even as their crypto holdings grow. The result? A paradoxical situation where the company’s balance sheet strengthens while its equity valuation weakens. Retail investors, who bought in expecting to ride the coattails of Bitcoin’s rallies, are instead watching their holdings lag, or worse, decline, while BTC soars. Confidence evaporates. They exit. And that retail selling, combined with relentless dilution, creates a textbook death spiral: more shares issued, lower price per share, wider mNAV discount, more retail panic, even more pressure to raise capital via dilution. The gap between asset value and market perception doesn’t just widen; it yawns open like a fault line.
So what can these firms do? The options are grim, and none are sustainable without fundamental change.
One path is issuing high-yield preferred shares. On the surface, it sounds attractive: offer 8%, 10%, even 12% to lure yield-hungry investors back. But let’s be brutally honest, how does a company with no real revenue, no operating profits, and a stated mission to hold crypto forever generate the cash to pay that yield? The only liquid asset they have is the very Bitcoin or Ethereum they swore never to sell. To pay a dividend would be to betray their core thesis and signal desperation. It’s a non-starter.
Another idea is share buybacks. In normal markets, buybacks are a powerful tool to support valuation and signal confidence. But these companies don’t have cash reserves. They survive on new issuance. Their entire financial engine runs on selling equity to buy crypto. Where would the money for buybacks come from? It’s like trying to fill a bucket with a hole in the bottom using water from the same bucket. The math simply doesn’t work.
That leaves the nuclear option: direct redemptions. Allow shareholders to exchange their stock for the underlying BTC or ETH at NAV. This would instantly restore mNAV parity. No more discount. No more illusion. But this move would effectively transform these entities into exchange-traded funds. And that’s a regulatory line they cannot cross. The SEC has spent years carefully approving spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs under strict custody, transparency, and investor protection rules. A backdoor redemption mechanism would trigger immediate regulatory intervention, likely a halt in trading, enforcement actions, or forced restructuring. The moment they offer redemptions, they’re no longer a strategic treasury; they’re an unregistered investment company. The legal risk is existential.
This entire house of cards was built on a playbook pioneered by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which raised $27 billion to accumulate Bitcoin. The market rewarded it with massive premiums because it was first, credible, and operated with a degree of transparency. But imitation is not innovation. Companies like Metaplanet in Japan tried to copy the model, and dozens more rushed in, believing the premium was a permanent feature, not a temporary anomaly of early-mover advantage and market euphoria. Now, as the arbitrage breaks, when the stock no longer reliably tracks or outperforms the underlying asset, the cycle ends. These firms weren’t Bitcoin treasuries. They were volatility wrappers. And every wrapper, no matter how shiny, eventually unwinds.
But the deeper, more troubling truth is how these companies are born and funded. This isn’t public finance as we know it. It’s a shadow system of corporate alchemy.
The creation process bypasses traditional IPO safeguards entirely. There are three dominant playbooks, all designed for speed and opacity. The first is the reverse merger: find a dying public shell, no revenue, few shareholders, trading on fumes, take control, rebrand, and emerge as a digital asset treasury. TRON did this with SRM Entertainment. Janover became DeFi Development Corp. overnight. The second is the SPAC route: merge with a special purpose acquisition company that’s already public, clean, and hungry for a deal. The third is the silent takeover: quietly buy 51% of a microcap stock from insiders or on the open market, stage a board coup, and pivot the company’s entire identity without a formal merger filing. Over 30 companies in 2025 alone have used one of these three models. The infrastructure is now industrialized. You don’t need a product, a team, or a track record. You just need legal control of a broken ticker and a compelling crypto narrative.
Funding follows the same pattern of opacity. These aren’t startups raising from VCs based on technology or traction. They’re capital markets machines built to convert stock price hype into crypto holdings. They use three high-speed mechanisms. First, PIPEs, Private Investment in Public Equity deals, where institutional insiders buy large blocks of stock at a steep discount, behind closed doors. TRON raised $100 million this way. Strive Asset Management pulled in $750 million. Forward Industries secured $1.65 billion for Solana plays alone. These aren’t seed rounds, they’re pre-arranged liquidity events for insiders.
Second, convertible notes: debt instruments that convert into equity if the stock price rises. GameStop raised $2.7 billion this way to buy Bitcoin. Nano Labs prepped $500 million for BNB. It’s debt disguised as equity, a ticking time bomb of future dilution that explodes the moment the stock rallies.
Third, ATM programs, which we’ve already discussed. The reflexive loop is clear: hype the narrative, stock trades above NAV, sell shares, buy crypto, re-hype, repeat. It’s a closed loop that works beautifully, until it doesn’t. And when it breaks, retail investors are left holding the bag.
This brings us to the most corrosive element of all: insider trading isn’t an exception in this space, it’s the operating model. Information leaks at every stage. Legal firms drafting merger documents. Exchanges prepping wallet integrations. Advisors whispering to favored funds. But the most egregious leaks happen during roadshows, the private investor meetings that precede public announcements. SharpLink’s stock was flat until day two of its roadshow. Then, it spiked 1,000% before the deal even closed. That’s not organic market discovery. That’s privileged information being weaponized. Insiders get in early, often for pennies, then dump on retail once the hype hits social media. This is the new digital IPO: no lockups, minimal disclosure, zero accountability.
I have seen cycles come and go, I’m deeply skeptical that this model survives another bull run. The structural flaws are too severe, the incentives too misaligned, the regulatory risks too high. The mNAV collapse is the market’s verdict: these wrappers add cost, risk, and opacity without delivering the promised premium. If mNAV stays below 1, the illusion is over. There’s no magic. No alchemy. Just underperforming shells trading at a discount to the very assets they’re supposed to represent.
To founders, traders, and investors: if you’re not asking who minted the company, who funded it in private, and who front-ran the announcement, you’re not an investor, you’re exit liquidity. And in this game, the house always wins. Until it doesn’t.
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October 17, 2025
Anndy Lian indicates memecoins resurgence among crypto natives
Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian indicates memecoins resurgence among crypto natives

Anndy Lian has expressed his view on the ownership of memecoins among crypto enthusiasts.
He suggests that crypto natives are increasingly inclined to own these digital assets as part of their portfolios. The tweet highlights an ongoing discussion surrounding the appeal and potential value of memecoins in the cryptocurrency market. While Lian’s comments indicate a positive sentiment, the broader crypto community remains engaged in debating the prospects of these often volatile digital tokens.
Lian’s perspective on the rise of memecoins underscores broader themes of engagement and speculation within the crypto ecosystem—dynamics he has previously explored in his analysis of how community-driven excitement can unlock significant economic potential for digital assets. As debates continue over both the opportunities and risks inherent in this volatile space, his prior commentary on the importance of secure asset storage remains particularly pertinent for investors looking to balance innovation with prudent safeguards.
Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/682763-memecoins-resurgence/
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Perfect storm: Trade war fears, leverage unwind, and institutional retreat crush crypto
Anndy Lian
Perfect storm: Trade war fears, leverage unwind, and institutional retreat crush crypto

The global financial landscape entered a period of pronounced fragility this week as a confluence of macroeconomic shocks, technical breakdowns, and institutional retrenchment converged to pressure risk assets across the board.
Nowhere was this more evident than in the cryptocurrency market, which shed 2.39 per cent over the past 24 hours and extended its weekly decline to 10.83 per cent. The sell-off did not occur in a vacuum. Instead, it unfolded against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical friction, banking sector stress, and shifting central bank narratives that collectively amplified risk-off sentiment and triggered a cascade of forced liquidations.
The immediate catalyst for the latest leg down came from former US President Donald Trump, who on October 10 announced a sweeping proposal to impose 100 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports, effective November 1, alongside new export controls on critical software technologies.
The announcement rattled global markets. Within hours, Bitcoin tumbled 3.5 per cent to US$107,500, while altcoins suffered even steeper losses ranging from 15 per cent to 60 per cent. The move reignited fears of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies, prompting investors to flee speculative assets in favour of traditional safe havens.
Gold responded accordingly, climbing to a record US$4,361 per ounce, a 2.1 per cent gain, while the US Dollar Index softened by 0.46 per cent to 98.34. The Russell 2000 Index, a barometer of domestic risk appetite, fell 1.2 per cent, underscoring the breadth of the risk aversion.
What made this episode particularly significant for crypto was the reestablishment of a near-perfect correlation with traditional equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price movement tracked the S&P 500 with a correlation coefficient of 0.948, the highest since 2023. This tight linkage signalled a return to the risk-on, risk-off regime that dominated markets during the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle.
In such an environment, crypto loses its identity as an uncorrelated asset and instead trades as a high-beta extension of the tech sector. With US equities already under pressure, Dow Jones down 0.65 per cent, S&P 500 down 0.63 per cent, Nasdaq down 0.47 per cent, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin became unmistakably lower.
Compounding the macro headwinds was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure. After consolidating for weeks within the US$115,000 to US$123,000 range, the flagship cryptocurrency finally breached the lower bound of that zone, closing decisively below US$115,000. This move invalidated a key support level that had held through multiple tests and opened the door to deeper downside. Technical analysts noted the emergence of a potential double-top pattern, with bearish confirmation hinging on a weekly close below US$110,000.
Adding to the negative momentum, both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages turned downward, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunged to 31.67, deep into oversold territory but not yet signalling a reversal. Futures market data revealed that open interest had actually risen by 2.3 per cent in the days leading up to the crash, suggesting that short sellers had positioned aggressively ahead of the breakdown, anticipating exactly this kind of macro-driven selloff.
Perhaps the most destabilising element of this week’s decline was the scale and speed of the leverage unwind. On October 16 alone, over US$724 million in crypto positions were liquidated across major exchanges, with long positions accounting for a staggering 74 per cent of that total.
This lopsided distribution pointed to excessive bullish positioning among retail traders, who had been riding the coattails of recent institutional inflows. The average funding rate across perpetual futures markets stood at +0.0052 per cent, reflecting persistent long-side pressure that left the market vulnerable to a sharp reversal.
When the macro shock hit, the resulting price drop triggered a domino effect. Margin calls forced leveraged longs to sell, which pushed prices lower, which triggered more liquidations. This feedback loop accelerated the decline and created a vacuum of buyers precisely when support was most needed.
Institutional participation, which had provided a crucial floor for prices in prior months, also pulled back sharply. Bitcoin ETF inflows, which surged to US$2.7 billion the previous week, collapsed to just US$571 million this week, a drop of US$2.129 billion. Grayscale’s GBTC alone saw US$22.5 million in outflows on October 16, marking a notable shift in sentiment among large players.
This cooling of institutional demand removed a key source of structural buying just as retail leverage was imploding. The result was a market caught between two stools: no longer buoyed by ETF-driven accumulation, and simultaneously crushed by retail deleveraging.
Meanwhile, central bank commentary added another layer of uncertainty. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, signalled his intent to advocate for a half-percentage-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting, a dovish stance that initially supported risk assets but now appears at odds with persistent inflation concerns.
Conversely, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the door open for further rate hikes, stating that the BOJ would continue tightening if confidence in its economic outlook strengthens. These divergent policy paths contributed to volatility in global bond markets, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling 7 basis points to 3.97 per cent and the two-year yield dropping 8 basis points to 3.42 per cent. While lower yields typically support risk assets, the move this week reflected safe-haven demand rather than genuine monetary easing expectations, offering little comfort to crypto traders.
Even geopolitical developments weighed on sentiment. President Trump’s announcement that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet in Hungary to discuss ending the war in Ukraine introduced new uncertainty into energy markets. Brent crude fell 1.37 per cent to US$61.06 per barrel on fears that a negotiated settlement could ease sanctions and flood the market with Russian oil. While lower energy prices might normally support risk assets by curbing inflation, the opaque nature of the proposed talks raised concerns about broader geopolitical realignments that could destabilise existing alliances and trade flows.
Looking ahead, the critical level to watch remains US$110,000 for Bitcoin. A weekly close below this threshold would likely invite a wave of algorithmic selling and accelerate the move toward US$100,000. A strong bounce could signal that the worst of the deleveraging is over. Traders should closely monitor two key indicators in the coming days: US Treasury yields and Bitcoin ETF flows.
A reversal in ETF inflows, particularly if they return to the US$2 billion-plus levels seen recently, could provide the buying pressure needed to stabilise prices. Similarly, a stabilisation or decline in the 10-year yield would ease financial conditions and potentially reignite risk appetite.
Despite the current turbulence, Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain robust. Network hash rate continues to hover near all-time highs, reflecting strong miner commitment and infrastructure investment. On-chain activity, while subdued during the selloff, has not shown signs of capitulation among long-term holders. This suggests that the current weakness is driven more by short-term leverage and macro sentiment than by a fundamental erosion of value.
In conclusion, the crypto market now navigates a perfect storm of external pressures and internal fragilities. The triple threat of trade war escalation, technical breakdown, and institutional pullback has exposed the limits of crypto’s decoupling narrative. Until macro conditions stabilise and leverage levels normalise, volatility will remain elevated, and the path to recovery will depend less on crypto-specific developments and more on the broader trajectory of global risk sentiment.
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AI at work: How it is powering new careers in a transforming market
Anndy Lian
AI at work: How it is powering new careers in a transforming market
AI isn’t just changing jobs, it’s creating them. From coding and logistics to creative design and product innovation, millions of new roles are emerging as humans and machines collaborate. Corporate venture studios and AI-powered workflows are turning ideas into opportunities, proving that the future of work is about teaming with AI, not competing against it.People love to spin scary tales about artificial intelligence. Machines taking over, jobs disappearing, humans left scrambling. While some roles will inevitably change or fade, this narrative misses the bigger picture. AI isn’t just a disruptor; it’s a turbo boost for the economy, creating new sectors, job types, and ways companies operate, from corporate venture studios to AI-powered workflows. At its core, AI complements human intelligence, enhancing productivity and opening opportunities for engineers, product specialists, creatives, and strategic thinkers.
The numbers back this optimism. The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2030, AI and related technologies could create 170 million new jobs globally, even if 92 million roles are displaced, netting a gain of 78 million positions. McKinseY. highlights that AI adoption will expand the demand for junior, tech-fluent talent by up to 20% in N01th America, generating 20-50 million new roles in sectors like healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and tech. Startup activity and innovation hubs in established companies are driving much of this growth.
Startups, coding, and machine learning: New career avenues
Between 2024 and 2025, AI-focused startups alone are expected to generate millions of jobs worldwide, especially in coding and machine learning. While certain traditional roles may shrink, the economy overall benefits from higher productivity, diversified outputs, and opportunities for reskilling.
AI is reshaping legacy sectors like supply chains. Automated predictions, smart routing, and invention management are creating new roles rather than eliminating them. Jobs now include AI analysts for logistics, automation specialists, human-AI team leads, and strategists managing digital workflows. By offloading repetitive tasks to AI, employees focus on strategy, problem-solving, and innovation, enhancing both productivity and work-life balance.
AI in consumer products and services
In sectors like retail, travel, and creative industries, AI is revolutionising product development, personalisation, and customer engagement. Companies such as Walmart and Expedia use AI for stock predictions and personalised user experiences, generating roles in product management, design, AI integration, ethics, and creative operations. AI doesn’t replace human judgment; it amplifies it, creating opp01tunities for innovation-driven cai·eers.
Corporate venture studios: Innovation at scale
Corporate venture studios blend big-company resources with startup agility, turning ideas into new businesses rapidly. Al accelerates this process, enabling studios to launch more ventures without bloating teams. Examples include Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison’s AI-powered energy management and Andrew Ng’s AI Fund, which helps AI-centric startups scale quickly. These setups employ coders, product managers, marketers, designers, and analysts, turning Al-enabled innovation into tangible jobs.
The human-AI partnership
The real spark comes when AI collaborates with human expertise. AI excels at analyzing data, simulating scenarios, and automating tasks, while humans provide creativity, ethics, and strategic vision. Together, they accelerate product development, improve outcomes, and foster innovation at scale. Corporate venture studios harness this partnership to generate new business models and roles, demonstrating that AI is an enabler rather than a threat.
With over 1,000 venture studios globally driving AI innovation, and AI expected to impact 86% of companies by 2030, workforce preparation is crucial. Schools and companies must train employees in AI literacy, critical thinking, creativity, and people skills. The future of work isn’t humans versus machines; it’s humans and AI collaborating to create jobs, foster innovation, and transform industries.
Conclusion: AI as opportunity, not threat
AI is no monster; it’s a catalyst for growth, job creation, and economic transformation. Venture studios and corporate innovation hubs are proving that technology combined with human ingenuity generates real, sustainable opportunities. By investing in training, collaboration, and strategic AI adoption, businesses and workers alike can thrive in this evolving landscape, building a future where human potential and machine power drive shared success.
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