Josh Culp's Blog, page 36

AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Fantasy Golf Happy Hour

Joel Harrington and Josh Culp breakdown this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson Championship.

We take a deep dive into the DraftKings salaries and go over Yahoo! picks as well. Enjoy the listen!

–New users who try DraftKings can get 100% match on deposit and a free $3 voucher… Try It Out Today

–Try Victiv Fantasy Golf for a unique twist on the game! Check it out now!

–DraftDay always provides a fun experience with their scoring system. Draft Today

–Fantasy Feud offers a strong offering that usually brings out the best fantasy golfers. You must pick 10 golfers, so the overall skill is increased, in my opinion. Give them a look

Joel Harrington writes for 4DeepGolfBlog.

Josh Culp writes for Future of Fantasy and Rotoworld.com.

AT&T Byron Nelson Championship DraftKings Picks

Captain Kirk came home victorious last week at Colonial and it was nearly a playoff as plenty of drama unfolded on the 18th green. There was no tie in the end as Kirk sunk his par save to win. There was a tie in the Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour though. The two lucky winners were BHax2 and path298761. Give BHax2 a follow on twitter.

This week the winner of the FoF DraftKings Golf Tour contest will go home with a dozen BirdieBalls so hop in the contest now. Join Now.

Full FoF Tour standings at the bottom for anyone with 5+ starts so kep playing to show up. Now let’s have look at DraftKings pricing this week and see what we can muster up. The full fantasy preview for the Byron Nelson will come tomorrow, as always.

Form Fitting

Jordan Spieth ($13300)… 2nd-103rd-11th-1st-1st-2nd

Brendan Steele ($7000)… 9th-76th-107th-25th-8th

Russell Henley ($7900)… 24th-77th-21st-4th

Jim Herman ($6600)… 33rd-13th-4th-57th-85th

Morgan Hoffmann ($7000)… 28th-76th-36th-9th-28th

Danny Lee ($8200)… 10th-13th-90th-22nd-60th-72nd-139th

This crew has 11 top 10s since the Valero. They are all in tip-top shape so take notice if that’s the route you like. Others in form include: George McNeill, Charley Hoffman, Ian Poulter, Justin Thomas, Scott Brown, Zach Johnson, and Jerry Kelly.

Course Horse-tory

Jason Dufner ($6,900)… 48th-33rd-1st-8th

Marc Leishman ($8,800)… 3rd-12th-3rd-111th-12th-8th

Keegan Bradley ($8,400)… 29th-2nd-24th-1st

Charles Howell III ($8,500)… 3rd-17th-41st-20th-45th

Scott Piercy ($6,600)… 5th-15th-26th-140th

Matt Kuchar ($9,500)… 7th-33rd-15th-6th-39th-42nd

Skinny Duff hasn’t finished inside the top 30 since March but he loves this venue, historically. Overall this team has 20 top 30s at TPC Four Seasons since 2008. Other course stars include Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Ryan Palmer, Gary Woodland, Robert Garrigus, J.J. Henry, Graham DeLaet, Charl Schwartzel, and John Rollins. Talk about Length off the tee!

Handpicked Value Plays

Morgan Hoffmann ($7,000) … Have to throw this one out even though it’s the obvious one. Hoffmann has the form-course history combination that fits the profile of a $9K player, so this price tag is a no-brainer.

Scott Piercy ($6,600) … The two-time PGA TOUR winner showed signs of life last week just in time for this venue that sets up perfectly for his game. Missed the cut in his 2009 BNC debut but has signed for top 30s each of his three trips to Irving, TX since. Let the bomber eat!

Carlos Ortiz ($6,400) … The Dallas resident is gonna want to put on a show for his home crew and he’s certainly capable. He won three times on the Web.com Tour last year and already has seven top 25s this year on the PGA TOUR. Also 23rd in driving distance which we love to see from our value plays this week.

Free PGA DraftKings Contest for New Users

Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Standings

Comment below with your DraftKings username if you need a invite to this week’s Future of Fantasy Golf Tour contest.

Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Fantasy Preview

Welcome back to Texas fantasy golf nerds! This week we head to Fort Worth for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Like the name indicates, it’s played at Colonial (Country Club).

The course is a tight par 70 track that requires positioning off the tee and great short-to-mid iron play. The greens are much smaller than average so scrambling will be key and they are bentgrass so have a look at bentgrass specialists.

I mentioned a lot of trends in last year’s preview. Check that out below, but here are the cliff notes:

Driving distance is not important but bombers CAN still have success. Going for the green is not important and you actually want to target conservative golfers this week (low GFG percentage). Good drive percentage is a great stat to look at this week. It incorporates driving accuracy with GIRs to really let you know who puts themselves in position off the tee to go after greens. Sometimes the right play is to attack a certain side of the fairway so if a golfer missed slightly they might still be in great position but the standard fairways hit won’t reflect that.

In addition we want golfer’s with at least one top 25 over their last three starts entering this week. We also want a golfer that has posted a top 15 at Colonial over their last three visits.

Using those trends above, we can narrow down our list of likely winners to the following: Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, Boo Weekley, David Hearn, David Toms, Kevin Streelman. Obviously, when you stack all those trends together, it loses some likeliness to occur, but I would say there is about a 25% chance that our winner this week comes from that list.

Check out last year’s preview and the Fantasy Golfanac for additional information.

Players to Watch

Zach Johnson… If you have ZJ still available to you in One-and-Done, this is the week you use him. He’s gained 48.236 strokes over the field here since 2010. The next closest is Boo Van Pelt, who has gained a whopping 15 strokes fewer over that time period. Trust the course horse!

Kevin Na… His course history at Colonial is mediocre, but definitely above average. The appeal is his current form as he just keeps dropping off top 20s at the bank. The great thing with Na is his scrambling game that allows him to survive on days when his iron-play is just not there.

Ryan Palmer… Like we mentioned on the podcast, Palmer is a member here at Colonial and having his greatest PGA TOUR season to-date. A top-tier option in all formats this week.

John Peterson… I mentioned my love for him yesterday in the DraftKings article, and it just continues to grow. Considering I no longer have Spieth, Na, Palmer, ZJ, or Walker to use in OAD, I’m actually pulling the trigger on the local stud JP. I think his local knowledge gets him into the top 40 and his putter will determine whether or not that turns into a top 10.

Russell Knox… Had him and Brendon Todd highlighted here last year and neither disappointed in their debuts. I could see them as the 2017 and 2018 Colonial champs, perhaps, but this week I’m keeping my expectations to top 25s.

Freddie Jacobson… Just like Na and Stroud, the Swede has the scrambling game to keep him in contention around this course. It makes perfect sense that he’s usually in the top 40 here, and no reason to expect anything less this week.

20-20 Club… The 20/20 club got back to it’s winning ways last week as Rory and Phil both had great weeks. This week Zach Johnson is the only man that fits the criteria. Proceed with confidence on ZJ this week.

Jason Kokrak… Finished T18 in his lone appearance here at Colonial. Will be off the radar after last week’s letdown, but his game is still in good shape overall. Very nice contrarian upside pick this week.

Ian Poulter… His switch to Titleist clubs has worked wonders this year. He’s the perfect complement to J Peterson since they both have JP in their initials!

Random Name Pairings… If you like using wacky coincidence to group your player pairings like IJP and JP, try these others: David Toms + David Hearn. Chris Kirk + Chris Stroud. Kevin Chappell + Kevin Streelman + Kevin Kisner. Boo Weekley + Bo Van Pelt. Jason Dufner + Jason Kokrak. Daniel Summerhays + Daniel Berger. John Senden + John Huh + John Peterson. These are all great plays this week, and also proves that I had way too much time on my hands.

Graham DeLaet… His game has been under the weather for much of the year, but this is the perfect course for a revitalization. He’s posted 10-of-14 rounds over field average at Colonial. It makes sense because his iron-game is top-tier when he’s on.

Boo Weekley… Boo loves plaid jackets so it’s no surprise that he’s won here at Colonial. He’s a ball-striking machine. In addition, he has top 20s in two of his last three starts entering the week. Past success on the course + good current form… I like that.

Colonial Cheatsheet… I’ve released a handy-dandy cheatsheet for this week on DraftKings.

Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks. This is includes guys that fit the stat profile, golfers that are in good form, course history, recommended cash game targets and more!

Top 25 for the 2015 Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

1. Ryan Palmer

2. Jordan Spieth

3. Kevin Na

4. Zach Johnson

5. Chris Kirk

6. John Peterson

7. Jimmy Walker

8. Brendon Todd

9. Charley Hoffman

10. Adam Scott

11. Graham DeLaet

12. David Toms

13. Russell Knox

14. Steve Stricker

15. Ian Poulter

16. Kevin Chappell

17. John Senden

18. Chris Stroud

19. Paul Casey

20. David Hearn

21. Brandt Snedeker

22. Ben Martin

23. Boo Weekley

24. Marc Leishman

25. Kevin Streelman

Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Fantasy Golf Happy Hour Podcast

Joel Harrington and Josh Culp breakdown this week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial.

We take a deep dive into the DraftKings salaries and go over Yahoo! picks as well. Enjoy the listen!

–New users who try DraftKings can get 100% match on deposit and a free $3 voucher… Try It Out Today

–Try Victiv Fantasy Golf for a unique twist on the game! Check it out now!

–DraftDay always provides a fun experience with their scoring system. Draft Today

–Fantasy Feud offers a strong offering that usually brings out the best fantasy golfers. You must pick 10 golfers, so the overall skill is increased, in my opinion. Give them a look

Joel Harrington writes for 4DeepGolfBlog.

Josh Culp writes for Future of Fantasy and Rotoworld.com.

Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial DraftKings Picks

The DraftKings user known as Bustouts continues to impress week-in and week-out. He’s now posted top 5s in seven of his 13 events played on the Future of Fantasy DraftKings Tour. He’s currently beating the field average by 57.42 DraftKings points each week. Far and away the best of the bunch. In fact, he just won his third event, which means he’s our next prize winner. He opted for a dozen Callaway Hex Golf Balls.

Also want to give a shout out to jucocon for beating the field average by 67.6 DraftKings points in his debut. If he keeps that up, he’ll be joining Bustouts near the top of the leaderboard before long.

Now let’s have look at DraftKings pricing this week and see what we can muster up. The full fantasy preview for Colonial Country Club will come tomorrow, as always.

Form Fitting

Jordan Spieth ($13,000)… MC-11th-1st-2nd-2nd

John Peterson ($6,900)… 20th-48th-18th-11th-35th

Cameron Tringale ($7,000)… 56th-2nd-MC-38th-5th

Pat Perez ($8,000)… 20th-17th-26th-11th-20th

Scott Brown ($7,300)… 13th-30th-36th-37th-37th

George McNeill ($7,700)… 28th-17th-12th-44th-20th-35th

This crew has played well over the past eight weeks of stroke-play events. A lot of these guys make you scratch your head but they’ve been playing such good golf that you can close your eyes and click submit. Kevin Kisner, Charley Hoffman, Zach Johnson, Ben Martin, Ian Poulter, Jason Kokrak, Shawn Stefani, and Chesson Hadley are a few others that have been swinging it well lately.

Course Horse-tory

Zach Johnson ($12000)… 73rd-3rd-1st-4th-1st-9th

Bo Van Pelt ($6600)… 14th-31st-19th-3rd-10th-59th-70th

Ryan Palmer ($9600)… 5th-14th-5th-31st-77th-34th-15th

David Toms ($7200)… 5th-95th-89th-1st-13th-27th-26th

Chris Stroud ($6800)… 14th-7th-13th-85th

Boo Weekley ($7700)… 75th-1st-31st-55th-9th

Talk about unimpressive. This gang is not going to bomb it down the fairways but they know how to pepper the greens. It’s all about iron-play and scrambling for this bunch. Other course stars you might want to consider: Chris Kirk, Jason Dufner, Freddie Jacobson, Martin Laird, Jonas Blixt, Jordan Spieth, John Huh, David Lingmerth, Charley Hoffman, or Kevin Na.

Handpicked Value Plays

John Peterson ($6,900) … I haven’t seen someone this under-priced since, well…Jason Kokrak last week. We all know how that worked out, but this week will surely be different! JP grew up playing Colonial and claims to have played it more than 500 times in his career. Given that kinda course knowledge combined with great season form…Wha-bammm.

David Toms ($7,200) … The past winner of this event is 13-for-17 all-time at Colonial with six top 10s. He’s finished outside the top 30 just six times. He was a firm stay away until his recent T13 at THE PLAYERS shows he’s still got some gas left in the tank.

Chris Stroud ($6,800) … One of my favorite sleepers nearly all of last year, he’s faltered quite a bit this season. Luckily he put together a T17 at the Shell Houston Open and T22 at the Zurich Classic to let us know he still has a pulse. If he’s going to finally win one on TOUR, this course is as good as any for the Texas native.

Free PGA DraftKings Contest for New Users

Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Standings

Comment below with your DraftKings username if you need a invite to this week’s Future of Fantasy Golf Tour contest.

Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview

Yesterday I mentioned how distance is key here at Quail Hollow Club. Just how important is it though? Well, nine of the last 10 winners have been ranked inside the top 65 in driving distance the year they won here. Also, eight of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the top 40 in going for the green.

Those two stats scream out LONG and AGGRESSIVE. It’s no wonder why many of the past winners here have been youngsters as they generally play without any fear. Often to a fault most weeks, but Quail Hollow is very forgiving in this matter. Bombs away! Save Grandpa Golf for another week.

Check out

Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Golf Happy Hour Podcast

Joel Harrington and Josh Culp breakdown this week’s Wells Fargo Championship.

We take a deep dive into the DraftKings salaries and go over Yahoo! picks as well. Enjoy the listen!

–New users who try DraftKings can get 100% match on deposit and a free $3 voucher… Try It Out Today

–Try Victiv Fantasy Golf for a unique twist on the game! Check it out now!

–DraftDay always provides a fun experience with their scoring system. Draft Today

–Fantasy Feud offers a strong offering that usually brings out the best fantasy golfers. You must pick 10 golfers, so the overall skill is increased, in my opinion. Give them a look

Joel Harrington writes for 4DeepGolfBlog.

Josh Culp writes for Future of Fantasy and Rotoworld.com.

Wells Fargo Championship DraftKings Picks

Do chicks really dig the long ball? Is distance everything this week? Yes, and sorta. Chicks do dig the long ball and that will be on full display this week as Quail Hollow allows these pros to keep driver in their hands for most of the round, unlike last week at TPC Sawgrass. Driving distance isn’t everything though, and we’ll talk more about that on tonight’s podcast and tomorrow’s full fantasy preview.

But first, we must take a peek at DraftKings pricing this week. I must say the pricing did a 180 and it’s extremely tight this week.

Form Fitting

Kevin Kisner ($8100)… 2nd-28th-2nd-87th-26th-49th-60th

Jason Kokrak ($7100)… 76th-18th-72nd-11th-6th-7th

Sean O’Hair ($8300)… 132nd-12th-6th-111th-29th-2nd

Ben Martin ($8700)… 4th-37th-67th-5th

Justin Thomas ($8600)… 24th-12th-11th-50th-122nd-49th-10th

Patrick Reed ($9100)… 24th-101st-22nd-17th-2nd

If you must rely on current form, have a gander at the following list of guys: Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Bill Haas, Phil Mickelson, Morgan Hoffmann, Pat Perez, Russell Knox, George McNeill, Shawn Stefani, or Louis Oosthuizen.

Course Horse-tory

Phil Mickelson ($10400)… 11th-3rd-26th-9th-2nd-5th-12th

Rory Mcilroy ($14000)… 8th-10th-2nd-113th-1st

Brendon de Jonge ($7200)… 6th-43rd-40th-48th-4th-44th

Robert Garrigus ($6400)… 27th-15th-9th-149th-40th

Brian Davis ($6100)… 60th-27th-9th-16th-91st-38th-25th

Heath Slocum ($5900)… 60th-32nd-72nd-29th-89th-5th

Phil and Rory are a cut above the rest when it comes to course history but as you can see it leaves you in a sticky situation where you need to roster guys like Garrigus, Davis, and Slocum just to get by. Instead, I would suggest you mix and match some others with course history: Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Webb Simpson, Jonathan Byrd, J.B. Holmes, Stewart Cink, Geoff Ogilvy, Lucas Glover, and Martin Flores to name a few.

Handpicked Value Plays

Jason Kokrak ($7,100) … The local resident has a bushel of top 20s this year and four of them in his past six starts. I’ve got him pegged as top 50 tee-to-green, and top 25 in going for the green, clubhead speed, and par 5 scoring. Three stats I value very highly this week! Local knowledge, form, and statistical fit! Yes, please. Yes, thank you.

Brendon de Jonge ($7,200) … Another local that has his share of success here in the past. In fact he’s gained 30.864 strokes over the field in his last 20 rounds here. That includes his infamous 8-over 80 where he lost 6.615 strokes to the field. The big man can go low!

Kyle Reifers ($7,700) … This completes the trio of local knowledge. Reifers has a great stat profile as he’s a tee-to-green specialists that can score on both par 4s and par 5s. The Charlotte resident has collected six top 30s on the season and could have another one in line this week. This price is a little higher than you would hope (whose isn’t this week?) but that really makes him a nice GPP sleeper.

Free PGA DraftKings Contest for New Users

Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Standings

Comment below with your DraftKings username if you need a invite to this week’s Future of Fantasy Golf Tour contest.

THE PLAYERS Fantasy Preview

Is this thing on? I hope you guys are still around reading this. Last week was just a small recess with the Match Play cutting off our ability to game on many of the fantasy golf websites. We are back, and in a big way, at this week’s PLAYERS.

The course is TPC Sawgrass. It’s a par 72 Pete Dye design that doesn’t have much length. It means positioning off the tee is crucial, and scrambling will be key on these tiny greens. Even though they are small, the greens still pack a big punch. They are generally some of the hardest greens to tackle and that is why we will see plenty of three-putts this week. Good putters can find a leg up with the flat stick.

Check out last year’s preview and the Fantasy Golfanac for additional information.

Players to Watch

Sergio Garcia… Has called himself a horse for the course at TPC Sawgrass. Got to love that confidence from the Spaniard. If I still had him available in One-and-Done, I’d make him my pick.

Zach Johnson… Unfortunately I do not have Serge still available to me in OAD, so ZJ will have to do. He’s gained 37.547 strokes over the field at this venue since 2010 (most in the field). Also posted three straight top 20s prior to missing the cut at the Heritage. Currently sits at 171st in SG:Putting, which is about 150 spots too low for his putting talents.

Charles Howell III… Has one top 50 here in 13 tries. Just say no to CH3 this week.

Russell Henley… The UGA Bulldog gets the award for player going most under-the-radar this week. I haven’t heard a peep about him this week but he’s posted three of six career PLAYERS round at 3+ strokes better than the field. Charley Hoffman and Graham DeLaet could also fit in this category of under-the-radar, high-upside options.

Rory McIlroy… The World #1 gets cranky when you take driver out of his hands and that will be the case often this week. Add in fatigue from a long week at the Match Play, and we have potential trouble. Save him for better weeks, I’d say.

Sean O’Hair… Just keeps playing well. He’s got a renewed confidence in his game and that has put him back on the radar in all formats. He’s gained 14.215 strokes over the field in his last 14 TPC Sawgrass rounds, so why not?

20-20 Club… The 20/20 has been barren over the past few events but this week we have two that fit the bill. Jimmy Walker AND Matt Kuchar both qualify. This pair has each gained 20+ strokes at TPC Sawgrass since 2010 and also gained 20+ strokes over the past eight weeks of stroke-play events. Heyyyo.

Justin Thomas… Has to be getting tired of being known as “Spieth’s good buddy.” Still looking to make a splash but this course doesn’t cater to bombers so it’ll be an uphill battle this week.

Phil Mickelson… I wish we had more information regarding his W/D at last week’s Match Play. He was rounding into form and it’s possible he didn’t want to ruin that on a couple tiring match-play contests. Should be a great option this week unless there is more behind that W/D that we don’t know about.

Tiger Woods… Love that he’s committing to so many tournaments (for his standards). Let’s me know he feels good physically and also looking to tidy up his mental game. It’s going to be nice having Tiger as a reliable top-tier option moving forward.

Patrick Reed… Lost 8.732 strokes to the field in his PLAYERS debut, couldn’t make it out of a relatively easy match-play grouping last week, has never conquered a Pete Dye course, and missed the cut the week prior to the Match Play. I will be in full FADE REED MODE personally.

Bo Van Pelt… Remember when BvP was a lock to finish in the top 30 every week? That was just a few years ago and I think we may have a flashback this week. Since 2010, his median round here has been +2.537 strokes better than the field. That’s remarkable and first in the field (unless we count the small sample size of Spieth’s debut). This makes Van Pelt a great punt play in DFS formats.

THE PLAYERS Cheatsheet… I’ve released a handy-dandy cheatsheet for this week on DraftKings.

Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks. This is includes guys that fit the stat profile, golfers that are in good form, course history, recommended cash game targets and more!

Top 25 for the 2015 PLAYERS

1. Jordan Spieth

2. Rory McIlroy

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Jim Furyk

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Jimmy Walker

7. Zach Johnson

8. Kevin Na

9. Lee Westwood

10. Adam Scott

11. Jason Day

12. Bubba Watson

13. Henrik Stenson

14. Russell Knox

15. Justin Rose

16. Phil Mickelson

17. Hideki Matsuyama

18. Bill Haas

19. Dustin Johnson

20. Luke Donald

21. Tiger Woods

22. Steve Stricker

23. Daniel Summerhays

24. Ryan Palmer

25. Patrick Reed

THE PLAYERS Fantasy Golf Happy Hour Podcast

Joel Harrington and Josh Culp breakdown this week’s PLAYERS.

We take a deep dive into the DraftKings salaries and go over Yahoo! picks as well. Enjoy the listen!

–New users who try DraftKings can get 100% match on deposit and a free $3 voucher… Try It Out Today

–Try Victiv Fantasy Golf for a unique twist on the game! Check it out now!

–DraftDay always provides a fun experience with their scoring system. Draft Today

–Fantasy Feud offers a strong offering that usually brings out the best fantasy golfers. You must pick 10 golfers, so the overall skill is increased, in my opinion. Give them a look

Joel Harrington writes for 4DeepGolfBlog.

Josh Culp writes for Future of Fantasy and Rotoworld.com.