Josh Culp's Blog, page 39

Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview

Hola amigos.

I am currently sitting on a beach in Cabo drinking a Mai Tai so my normal previews will not be on the docket this week.

First, I suggest taking a look at my preview for last year’a running. The field will switch up but a lot stays the same.

Last Year’s Preview

No DraftKings Preview but see if you’re eligible for this Beginners-Only Free Contest! Draft Now

The podcast will return next week but for now check out Joel over at his blog, 4DeepGolf.

WGC-Cadillac Championship Fantasy Preview

Oh, what a week last week was at The Honda Classic. Mother Nature did not like Rory returning to the United States so she put on a special show for him. He didn’t like it, and neither did many of the top-tier golfers as Rory, Rose, Charl, DJ, GMac, Keegan, and many others all went home early. Perhaps they wanted to skip the dragged-out Monday finish and get straight to Doral for this week’s event.

Like I mentioned, Trump National Doral is the course. It’s a long one, boasting over 7,500 yards as a par 72. Bermudagrass greens are on tap again as we stay in Florida. Driving distance is a good thing to have this week and accuracy is not necessary as the entire field will be missing A LOT of fairways.

As usual, check out the Fantasy Golfanac for more details on course history and such. Also, make sure you get in the FREE WGC Cadillac contest on DraftKings this week. It pays out $1,000 in prizes, try it out now.

Players to Watch

Bubba Watson… Mister Watson has gained 14.343 strokes on the field at Trump National Doral since 2010. That’s the best number in the field and he’s certainly playing inspired golf this year. I see no reason to hold back this week. I will use him in OAD and lead with him on my DraftKings teams.

Dustin Johnson… Didn’t like the layout of PGA National but Trump National is right up his alley. Get back on the DJ Train this week.

Rory McIlroy… Was weary to jump right in last week and it paid off. I’m ready to rock and roll now. He’s posted 11 top 10s in his last 16 WGC events. Big game hunter and he should find his prey this week.

Patrick Reed… Has quickly flip-flopped the tag on him from being wildly inconsistent to now being a safe play week-to-week…Or is he just waiting for the entire world to jump on him this week and disappoint as he tries to defend his title? Only time will tell but he’s a good play on paper.

Charl Schwartzel… This is one of the “safe stops” to use Charl in OAD leagues but he doesn’t seem so safe after last week’s disaster. I like him a lot but could understand others’ hesitation.

Luke Donald… Crushes it in Florida, 10 of his last 14 in the Sunshine State have gone for top 10s.

Justin Rose… Is the wrist injury still a concern or was weather the culprit last week? It’s hard to say, but it’s also hard to back him after two missed cuts and possible injury lingering.

Jordan Spieth… His tee-to-green game at Doral was putrid last year but he putted the lights out. A reversal of what we saw most weeks on the West Coast. He likes putting on bermuda, it’s just a matter of his tee-to-green game being on point this week.

Brooks Koepka… Scared a lot of gamers before rebounding in a big way. Still playing in Florida and still playing great golf.

Top 25 for the 2015 WGC Cadillac Championship

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Bubba Watson

3. Jason Day

4. Sergio Garcia

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Dustin Johnson

7. Jordan Spieth

8. Adam Scott

9. Justin Rose

10. Patrick Reed

11. Henrik Stenson

12. Luke Donald

13. Jim Furyk

14. Graeme Mcdowell

15. Phil Mickelson

16. Charl Schwartzel

17. Hideki Matsuyama

18. Jimmy Walker

19. Martin Kaymer

20. Ryan Palmer

21. Keegan Bradley

22. Gary Woodland

23. Rickie Fowler

24. Paul Casey

25. Hunter Mahan

Top 10 for the 2015 Puerto Rico Open

1. Ryo Ishikawa

2. Brendon de Jonge

3. Boo Weekley

4. John Peterson

5. Chesson Hadley

6. Andrew Loupe

7. Zac Blair

8. Fabian Gomez

9. Andres Romero

10. Peter Uihlein

Turn $2 into $4,000 this week on DraftKings.com!

WGC-Cadillac Championship Happy Hour Ep 7

Joel and I discuss the WGC-Cadillac Championship on DraftKings and Yahoo! formats.

Can you safely lock in Rory after last week’s missed cut?

Does Trump National Doral suit bombers like Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson?

Which Euros are the ones to target this week?

Tune in this week for all that and more…

Try DraftKings risk-free this week as they host a FREE contest with $1,000 in prizes. Draft now at DraftKings.com.

Reserve your spot in the largest fantasy golf contest ever which takes place at The Masters and rewards $1 Million to the winner! Yes, $1,000,000 dollars… Reserve Your Seat Now

WGC – Cadillac Championship DraftKings Picks

Last week we saw bdsendlak take home his second Future of Fantasy Golf Tour win. He was late to the party, but now he’s a legitimate threat to win his third victory before anyone else, which would also mean he’d be our next prize winner. I’ve got a few prizes in mind for that. Full standings are at the bottom on this page. The standings will shift to SG:DraftKings or incorporate FedExCup-style scoring as soon as we get 15 members with 10+ starts. That should be just a few weeks away. Comment if you need an invite this week.

Now let’s have a look at this week on DraftKings…

First, make sure you check out this Beginners-Only FREE PGA Contest. Draft Now.
Form Fitting

Jason Day ($10,900) … 4th-1st-17th-3rd

Patrick Reed ($10,700) … 7th-29th-40th-24th-1st-22nd

Russell Henley ($6,300) … 44th-61st-59th-17th-3rd-35th

Ryan Palmer ($7,000) … 25th-77th-2nd-10th-17th-22nd

Sangmoon Bae ($6,900) … 135th-8th-32nd-77th-51st-6th

Looking at their last six starts here, or less if they’ve yet to play six this season. This team is mowing down the competition. Henley and Reed make their second straight appearance on this squad. Sangmoon (not a type, no longer using a hyphen) cooled off last week but so did a lot of golfers.With $8200 left you spend, you can round out this squad with Paul Casey who has back-to-back podium finishes.

Course Horse Is

Bubba Watson ($12400) … 2nd-18th-2nd-WD-72nd

Matt Kuchar ($8,700) … 13th-35th-8th-5th-3rd

Charl Schwartzel ($6,800) … 9th-16th-4th-24th-2nd

John Senden ($5,900) … 20th-6th-11th

Graeme McDowell ($7,800) … 9th-3rd-13th-42nd-6th-66th-48th

Doral may have played drastically different after last year’s redesign but there are several reasons why it should not play that hard this year. Weather and Green softening the main two. There are still plenty of elements of the original course that will allow these course horses to shine again. If you go solely base don last year then you have the issue of small sample sizes. It’s a lose-lose. I reckon you lean less heavily on course history this week as a precaution.

Handpicked Value Plays

Joost Luiten ($5,700) … The juice is loose after finishing T11 at the Honda last week. Top 30s in nine of his last 11 across the globe. His class is for real, and he’s no stranger to these strong fields as he’s played in the last five majors and five of the last seven WGC stroke-play events.

Anirban Lahiri ($5,700) … Won three of his last 10 internationally, including two of his last three. Nevermind they were on the Asian Tour, if someone had won three of their last 10 Web.com Tour starts and were priced at 5.7K, I’d react the same. You have to throw him in at this price.

Charl Schwartzel ($6,800) … Top 25s in six of his last eight starts here. If you tried to go through his career to find four straight finishes outside the top 40, I’m not sure you’d be able to find it. This venue is the perfect track for this South African to get back on track.

Future of Fantasy Golf Tour Standings

The Honda Classic Fantasy Preview

Nobody wanted to win the Northern Trust Open last week as seemingly everyone struggled down the stretch. Sergio blew it. DJ couldn’t make a putt. Spieth went for a chip-in on 18 instead of settling for par. Bae was lurking in the final group but couldn’t muster up any parbreakers down the stretch. Goosen was a mess the entire round, as expected. In the end, James “Gangnam-Shoe Salesman-Comedian” Hahn took down his first PGA TOUR title.

This week the PGA TOUR travels across the nation to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, for The Honda Classic. The course is PGA National’s Champion Course. It’s a par 70 track that plays in between 7,100 and 7,200 yards. The greens are bermudagrass and usually play very firm. Bunkers are littered throughout the course. Many guys will hit 10+ bunker shots this week, at the same time Russell Knox managed to hit into just one last year so sand play is not a MUST.

Fairways are not tough to hit but they are at a premium. Generally 15 or so golfers that make it through the cut will stripe 70% of fairways on the week. After that it gets tough as the field generally averages ~59% GIR on the week. That’s why strokes gained:tee-to-green is the stat to lean on this week. More course info at The Honda Classic Golfanac page.

Players to Watch

Lee Westwood… Westy lives less than five minutes from the course. He can roll out of bed and finish top 50 here. Luckily, he usually does much better than that. In fact, he’s gained a ridiculous 40.910 strokes:tee-to-green during his last five starts here. Lock and load Westwood this week.

Dustin Johnson… PGA National yields the lowest percentage of 300+ yard drives of all courses on TOUR. That’s a big red flag for bombers like DJ who thrive on their SG:Driving. He’s playing too well to ignore, but there are better events to invest.

Rory McIlroy… He’s won here and finished runner-up last year but he hasn’t been able to manhandle this course. In fact he has three rounds where the field best him by three+ strokes, and that doesn’t even include his infamous wisdom teeth WD round. He’s still one of the favorites but I like him elsewhere for OAD.

Keegan Bradley… Time to stay on the Keegan train following a top five last week. He’s been above field average in 11 of his 14 PGA National rounds. Consistency has been his thing here. Safe to roll out Bradley.

Charl Schwartzel… Will likely fly under the radar after gamers got burned last week with a mediocre start. He missed the cut here last year but posted three top 15s prior to that.

Zach Johnson… Another guy flying under the radar. Only played here twice but the course should suit his play style well. If you want to back a proven winner that will be lowly owned, ZJ is your guy.

Luke Donald… Crushes it in Florida. Nine of his last 13 in the Sunshine State have gone for top 10s. If he’s going to get things figured out, this is the week.

Luke Guthrie… Listen to the podcast to hear some love for Guthrie. Basically, this is his best locale to snag his maiden PGA TOUR win.

Chris Stroud and Freddie Jacobson… These two dominate the greens here at PGA National. These two have gained a combinged 47.627 strokes via the putter over their last five starts here.

Justin Rose… If Rory doesn’t tickle your fancy, Rose is certainly one of the top dogs here. Top 15s in five of his last six Hondas. Not a bad OAD play.

Charles Howell III… Sony Open is always the tourney where gamers target Chucky but this venue certainly suits him well too. He is 8-for-8 with four top 30s.

Brooks Koepka… Great form and knows the course way better than his one start would indicate.

Top 25 for the 2015 Honda Classic

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Justin Rose

3. Lee Westwood

4. Keegan Bradley

5. Sergio Garcia

6. Graeme Mcdowell

7. Charl Schwartzel

8. Ryan Palmer

9. Rickie Fowler

10. Zach Johnson

11. Paul Casey

12. Russell Henley

13. Luke Donald

14. Phil Mickelson

15. Freddie Jacobson

16. Harris English

17. Patrick Reed

18. Chris Kirk

19. Dustin Johnson

20. Martin Kaymer

21. Charles Howell III

22. Graham DeLaet

23. Brooks Koepka

24. Billy Horschel

25. Luke Guthrie

Turn $2 into $4,000 this week on DraftKings.com!

The Honda Classic Happy Hour Ep 6

Joel and I discuss all the hot picks for this week’s Honda Classic. We go through DraftKings and Yahoo! plays including which stars to pick, which stars to avoid, and what sleepers to take a chance on.

Does Rory’s price on DraftKings make him undraftable?

Does PGA National negate the length of Dustin Johnson?

Is Luke Guthrie finally ready to breakthrough this week?

Take our advice and play over on DraftKings.com this week.

Reserve you spot in the largest fantasy golf contest ever which takes place at The Masters and rewards $1 Million to the winner! Yes, $1,000,000 dollars… Reserve Your Seat Now

The Honda Classic – DraftKings Edition

A big shout out to JDavid as he took down his first Future of Fantasy Golf Tour event. The standings are really starting to shape up, but there is A LOT of golf left to be played. We are still in a race to to three wins, as that lucky person will win our next prize. Check out the bottom of the post for those standings, comment if you need an invite into this week’s event, but first let’s see what we can piece together on DraftKings this week.

Form Fitting

Brooks Koepka ($9,500) … 41st-1st-4th-8th

Patrick Reed ($9,100) … 29th-40th-24th-1st-22nd-26th

Russell Henley ($8,300) … 61st-59th-17th-3rd-35th-4th

Will MacKenzie ($7,200) … 9th-52nd-2nd …EDIT: Swap Brendan Steele if you worry of Mack’s hand injury

Harris English ($9,000) … 30th-2nd-40th-30th-3rd-37th

Looking at their last six starts here, or less if they’ve yet to play six this season. This team hasn’t missed a cut over that time. Henley is the defending champ here. Koepka is a Florida State guy. MacK is a Jupiter resident with good history at PGA National. Harris is trending well and loves bermuda greens. Reed has been surprisingly consistent this year. Overall this is a solid, safe squad. You can round it out with Shawn Stefani as he has top 30s in five of his last six including a pair of top 10s. The only concern is form on the West Coast doesn’t always transfer now that we’ve hit the Florida Swing.

Course Horse Is

Luke Donald ($7,800) … 8th-10th-2nd

Justin Rose ($10,800) … 4th-5th-3rd-139th-15th

Freddie Jacobson ($7,200) … 12th-25th-16th-29th-6th-5th

Will MacKenzie ($7,200) … 6th-12th-5th-65th

Lee Westwood ($9,300) … 46th-9th-4th-29th-9th

Horses for the course since 2008. The last spot on this roster could go to a guy like Knox who narrowly missed out in his debut last year. Or you could step down to guys like CH3, Dufner, Steele, or even Chris Stroud. Not too shabby.

Handpicked Value Plays

Luke Guthrie ($5,800) … He was the 54-hole co-leader in his 2013 PGA National debut and was sitting in 17th after 54 holes last year. Very similar to Sang-Moon Bae last week, this course suits him well, it’s just about piecing four straight rounds together. He has the talent to win on TOUR and this has been one of his best stops. I’m ALL IN.

David Lingmerth ($5,600) … The Florida resident is just 5-for-10 on the season as far as cuts made go. On the bright side, he’s finished above field average in five of his six career rounds at the Honda. He finished T8 here last year thanks to four rounds of par-or-better. He’s establishing himself as one of those all-or-nothing golfers and this could be one of those ALL weeks.

Alex Cejka ($4,600) … I’m diggin’ deep here folks. He hasn’t played the Honda since 2011, but owns top 40s in each of his last four starts here. He’s not getting any younger (44) but does already have three top 20s on the season. Not recommended for cash games but he makes for a great GPP flier at this bargain-bin price.

Future of Fantasy Golf Tour Standings

NBA Freerolls for New Users at DraftKings.com

While the focus of Future of Fantasy remains on fantasy golf, I know many of you guys just love sports in general. That’s why I’m spreading the news of these exclusive freerolls over at DraftKings.

Over the next few days, new users will have access to try out the NBA product at DK. There will be no entry fees, but $1,000 given away each day.

If you’ve been on the fence about trying DraftKings, this is the perfect opportunity. Try it out today and return daily for the updated contest link.

Northern Trust Open Fantasy Preview

Jim Furyk fumbled another 54-hole lead and Brandt Snedeker took advantage at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Now the PGA TOUR stays in California as we go to Los Angeles for the Northern Trust Open.

The golf course is the Riviera Country Club. A par 71 track that plays to 7,349 yards on the scorecard. The greens are poa annua, which means they get very bumpy as the day goes on. The fairways are tight, so many fairways will be missed. Don’t try to get cute and pick golfers with high driving accuracy. Distance trumps accuracy this week. The greens are also smaller than average, which means greens in regulation out of the rough will be key. Another option is to just be a great scrambler. Both different routes but can reach the same results.

Golfers that can fade the ball have had success here in the past. It’s also another reason lefties have had success here. It’s also a reason why a correlation with Augusta National is often drawn. The past winners have been a mixed bag of bombers, plodders, and randoms. For more information on the course and tournament history, check out the Fantasy Golfanac.

DraftKings FREE Northern Trust Open Contest ($1,000 in Prize Pool, No Entry Fee)
Players to Watch

Jimmy Walker… Has noted Riviera as his favorite course on TOUR. Has backed that up with his fair share of success here. Four consecutive top 20s to be exact. If you’ve been holding out in OAD, now’s the time to use him.

Dustin Johnson… Speaking of One-and-Done, DJ has to be in high consideration this week. Top 10s in four of his last six here. Unfortunately those other two were missed cuts. His tee-to-green game is a perfect fit for Riviera.

Brandt Snedeker… I said to fade him last week and I was dead wrong. He got in one of his zones and couldn’t be stopped. Made one bogey all week. Hard to back up wins on the TOUR with regression and added pressure. Now is ACTUALLY the time to fade him.

Keegan Bradley… Another guy who cites Riviera CC as his favorite venue on TOUR. I like him a lot this week.

Cameron Tringale… Continues to search for his maiden PGA TOUR win and this is one of the top courses on his resume.

Brian Harman… Feasted on this course last year (T3 finish) but has done his damage with the putter. Is that sustainable or just a nice stroke of luck?

Spencer Levin… Loves poa annua greens and Cali in general. Won’t be a featured play this week, but he’s got the potential to keep things rollin’.

William McGirt… The weekly wife pick this week. Don’t fade the wife pick. She knows.

Sang-Moon Bae… Two starts here and two 36-hole leads. Hmmm. I don’t like how he backed out of last week’s event pre-tourney. Raises a red flag as a possibility that his legal case is taking up more of his focus than we’d like. Otherwise a top-notch pick this week.

Jordan Spieth… Always in play, anywhere. Like I’ve mentioned before, he hasn’t overcome poa greens yet so there are better weeks to invest.

Bill Haas… Another top pick that has outside elements in play. His wife, Julie, is due with their second child this week. He has five top 25s here including a win but may have to pull a Hunter Mahan if his wife pops mid-tournament.

J.B. Holmes… Loves this layout, the proof comes in the form of five top 15s at Riviera CC. Scorching hot form too. Bingo!

Sergio Garcia… His tee-to-green game makes him a top-tier pick but his putter will be the wildcard on these poa annua greens.

Bernd Wiesberger… In top-form worldwide. Ride em while he’s hot.

Top 25 for the 2015 Northern Trust Open

1. Jimmy Walker

2. Bubba Watson

3. Dustin Johnson

4. Sergio Garcia

5. Jim Furyk

6. Jordan Spieth

7. Webb Simpson

8. Keegan Bradley

9. Charl Schwartzel

10. Hideki Matsuyama

11. Hunter Mahan

12. Ryan Moore

13. Harris English

14. Graham DeLaet

15. J.B. Holmes

16. Francesco Molinari

17. Brandt Snedeker

18. Gary Woodland

19. Brendon Todd

20. Kevin Chappell

21. Cameron Tringale

22. Sang-Moon Bae

23. Robert Streb

24. Paul Casey

25. K.J. Choi

Turn $2 into $2,000 this week on DraftKings.com!

Northern Trust Open – DraftKings Edition

Last week on the Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour, Mr. Norrad came away victorious. He didn’t just win, he RAN AWAY with it. Norrad posted a score of 606 with the the runner-up, bgmula1, collecting 516 DraftKings points. Talk about strokes gained:draftkings! That’s going to come in handy as the season progresses.

Check out the end of this article for the full FoF Golf Tour standings. The standings are becoming massive and we’re expanding from 25 to 30 entries this week. It’s not too late to get on in the action. I also decided on the next prize milestone. It will be the first member to get to three wins! Better get a move on.

Now let’s see what we can put together on DraftKings this week for the Northern Trust Open:

Form Fitting

Shawn Stefani ($6,800) … 30th-15th-6th-2nd-25th-41st-98th-53rd

Robert Streb ($7,400) … 10th-17th-8th-37th-8th-1st-10th-31st

Russell Henley ($7,700) … 59th-17th-3rd-35th-4th

Jimmy Walker ($12,300) … 21st-7th-1st-2nd-35th-4th-63rd

Sang-Moon Bae ($7,300) … 32nd-77th-51st-6th-5th-111th-1st

Hot clubs! Getcha hot clubs. These guys are scorching to start the new season. You can round out this squad with Mahan, Woodland, Thomas, or even the ultimate form player overseas, Bernd Wiesberger.

Course Horse-is

K.J Choi ($6,500) … 12th-33rd-24th-7th-27th-3rd-7th

J.B. Holmes ($8,800) … 52nd-90th-8th-12th-3rd-6th-7th

Sergio Garcia ($9,700) … 13th-4th-46th

Cameron Tringale ($9,000) … 12th-21st-24th-21st

Jimmy Walker ($12,300) … 20th-16th-4th-4th-37th-70th

Horses for the course since 2008. This gang has just one missed cut here during that time, but 18 top 25s. IF you believe Riviera favors the same style year-after-year then this team is for you. Others that just missed the cut include: Luke Donald, Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Jim Furyk, Bill Haas, George McNeill, and Ernie Els.

Handpicked Value Plays

Cameron Tringale ($6,100) … This price is way too low for a golfer that’s posted top 25s in four straight at the event. Tringale is still searching for his maiden PGA TOUR win, and it wouldn’t be a shock if this was the week.

Ernie Els ($6,200) … Tee-to-green, tee-to-green. That’s what Big Ern is all about and that’s what this course requires. He missed the cut in his 97′ debut before winning in 99′ and hasn’t missed a cut in eight tries since. If his putter is even mediocre this week, look for a top 25.

Brian Harman ($6,900) … Lefties have had their fair share of success at Riviera. That include Harman who rattled off a T3 finish last year in his second start at the NTO. Harman can put away birdies in bunches and that’s exactly what we like to see on DraftKings.

Future of Fantasy Golf Tour Standings