Josh Culp's Blog, page 43

OHL Classic at Mayakoba – DraftKings Edition

Heading south of the border for a vacation in Playa del Carmen, many of the second and third-tier PGA TOUR golfers will tee it up in Mexico this week. It’s a short resort course that plays into the hands of average putters and accurate drivers. More on that tomorrow in the full preview. First let’s have a look at some DraftKings angles this week:

Team Shorty

Brian Stuard @ $10,400: Top 15s on four of last six short tracks.

Charles Howell III @ $10,800: Top 10s in six of last 15 short course events.

Will MacKenzie @ $8,300: Top 15s in four of last seven short course tournaments.

Chris Stroud @ $10,900: Top 20 in six of last 10 played on short courses.

Tim Wilkinson @ 4,500: Top 55s in five of last eight short track tournaments.

Wilkinson is a bit of stretch, just for salary-saving purposes but it’s also possible to replace some of these golfers with other short course specialists: Robert Garrigus, Charley Hoffman, Harris English, Jeff Overton, Jerry Kelly, Freddie Jacobson, Kevin Stadler, etc.

Course Horsery

Chris Stroud @ $10,900: 3rd-5th-4th-40th-60th-12th

Charles Howell III @ $10,800: 6th-16th-13th-20th-38th

J.J. Henry @ $5,400: 23rd-9th-19th-48th-2nd

Rory Sabbatini @ $9,800: 3rd-110th-5th

Kevin Stadler @ $9,000: 12th-16th-74th-9th-20th-48th

El Camaleón GC is a fair test of golf, and as you can tell from the list of names above, distance is not a prerequisite. This squad is a little more top heavy than most I list here, so feel free to mix-and-match with some other proven course horses: Willim McGirt, Heath Slocum, Cameron Beckman, Freddie Jacobson, Colt Knost, or Mark Wilson.

Handpicked Value Plays

Jerry Kelly ($6,900): A resort course that requires accuracy over distance? Kelly is your man. He missed the cut last year when weather gave the long hitters a slight advantage, but was 5-for-5 before that, including a T6 in 2009. He’s not getting any younger but top 40s are still in his commonly used bag of tricks.

J.J. Henry ($5,400): He hasn’t done squat this year but his course history trumps that given his small price tag. He’s signed for par-or-better in 17 of 20 career rounds here, yielding four top 25s in five attempts. His other, a T48, so not terrible. Sometimes you have to trust the course history and let it ride. Give Henry a long look this week.

Cameron Beckman ($3,500): Beckman is way past his prime but the three-time PGA TOUR winner loves him some El Camaleón. It was the site of his latest PGA TOUR victory (2010) and he’s also collected three other top 15s here in seven total attempts. The beauty here is the price tag since a 25 point week is manageable even if he missed the cut, and that would still be 7x his price tag.

Sleeper Recap

Average Sleeper Salary: $6,366

Average DraftKings Points: 64.17

Average DraftKings Value: 10.09x (Target Value = 10x)

Average Finishing Position: 47th place

Sleepers that reached 10x Value: 7 of 12 (58%)

Missed Cuts: 3 of 15

Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Week 3

Week 2 of the FoF DraftKings Golf Tour is in the books and it was a doozy. After Sheshan International played as one of the easier courses on TOUR last year and very easy over the past five years in general, they flipped the script and made things challenging this time around.

When you make predictions based on history, and then all the history gets thrown out the window early, you’re in big trouble. That was me this weekend. It’s kind of like stacking two team in NFL because they have the highest Over-Under in Vegas by a longshot, and then they play a 17-14 defensive struggle. It’s not going to work out well for you.

In hindsite, you could sort of see this coming after the Pro-Am rounds were played as most of the golfers talked about how narrow the fairways looked this year and how the rough was pretty nasty. Looking back at Bubba Watson’s pre-tournament interview, he was one of the few that said you would still have to go low to win this week. Bubba said “the rough is pretty bad but it was pretty bad last year. So yeah, I expect low scores again.” Interviews are not always so revealing and hindsite is 20/20. Anyway, when the course plays +0.726 strokes over par versus last year when it played -1.110, you know they pput some effort into making it more of a challenge. This is a WGC event, after all.

More importantly, let’s check in on our Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Standings. JDavid looked to be in control for much of the WGC-HSBC but couldn’t overcome Bubba and Rossadamlee in the end. Rossadamlee was our Week Two winner, with a score of 447. Very low scoring, considering it was a no-cut event. That’s what you get when the two favorites, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia both finish outside the top 25.

Standings

This is the first week we see Strokes Gained: DraftKings introduced. Just like the strokes gained stats used by the PGA TOUR, this DraftKings stat reflects how much better you perform than the field average. This will be one of the key stats I reference when talking about FoF DK Golf Tour leaders, but prizes will also be awarded for overall points, and number of events won, etc. Hang in there if it’s been a rough start, there are 30+ weeks left to shake up the leaderboard!

Week 3 Contest

Keep your eyes peeled for the week three invite later tonight when the Mayakoba contests go live. I will send out invites to everyone who has joined so far, but I don’t want to restrict this contest to the same 15 guys all year. Let’s invite some new blood, as there will be plenty of prizes based on average performance, not just total points accumulated.

For anyone without an account, try DraftKings today and shoot me an email or comment and I will help you get started in the DFS Golf world.

FanDuel FFFC Week 10 – A Marriage Experience

First things first, I’d like to congratulate Andrew on his marriage. He is tying the knot this Sunday, and therefore could not write this weekly piece. As someone who got married so recently, I wish him the best, and hope his big day is as great as mine was.

He was kind enough to send us his team for this week so we could dissect it. Andrew has been on a nice little hot streak lately, so it would be wise to take a hard look at these guys when developing your own weekly NFL teams. Here is my outside perspective on his picks.

Josh McCown is not someone I would trust in cash games, but for a FFFC Qualifier, any QB is open season. Playing against one of the worst Pass Defenses in the league? Why not?

Matt Forte on the other hand is a cash game specialist but that doesn’t deter us from taking a stab in GPPs.

Peyon loves to throw and throw often but if they get up big in the first half, it could be the Hillman show in the second half. I think we’re still a week or two away from needing to be concerned about Montee Ball taking any serious share of the carries.

Jordy Nelson saw a nice price drop, and he should be in line for a ton of targets against the rival-Bears. He’s snagged five TDs in his last five games, and one or two more are surely in the cards this week.

Kelvin Benjamin is a target-horse, but it’s just a matter of catching those targets. If everything all comes together, he’s in for a monster game one of these weeks.

Five touchdowns in three games, Andrew has been on Martavis Bryant early and often. Looks like he’s hoping for more of the same this week.

Jason Witten is where the wedding karma comes into play. Andrew told me that the Cowboys are his future wife’s favorite team and Jason Witten is her favorite player in the NFL. What better way to celebrate a wedding than winning a seat to Vegas for the FanDuel FFFC by using your wife’s favorite player?

The defense is an obvious pick that requires no explanation, and I’m guessing the kicker just fit into the rest of the salary.

So, there you have it. Another good week lies ahead for Andrew, I can feel it. At the beginning of the year, I sometimes cringed when I saw the lineups being rolled out. That’s just never the case anymore. Lineup construction is one of the biggest skills in Daily Fantasy Sports, and Andrew is deveolping that asset nicely in his DFS rookie season.

Good luck to all playing on FanDuel this week. May the odds be ever in your favor!

WGC-HSBC Fantasy Preview

We have an exciting week of golf ahead of us as we enter the first dual-tournament week of the year. The main attraction is the WGC-HSBC Champions played overseas in China while the lesser-tier golfers will tee it up at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

After a year off the grid, the Sanderson Farms returns this year, at a new venue as well. Instead of Annandale, we will get introduced to the Country Club of Jackson. That’s Jackson, Mississippi for thos keeping track at home. Most weekly formats won’t use this event, but plenty of OAD leagues will. For that, here are my top options this week: Andrew Svoboda, Kevin Kisner, Bo Van Pelt, Robert Streb, Scott Piercy, Tony Finau, and Scott Brown. There are plenty of other juicy options but they didn’t make my final list for one reason or another. I circled local boy, Jonathan Randolph for this event at the beginning of the season but I was planning on using him in DFS, but that’s just not an option this week. Oh well.

Now let’s get down to the main event. The WGC-HSBC Champions. A no-cut event played at a par 72 course playing just under 7300 yards. The greens are bentgrass and run about 11.5 on the stimp. Course horses include Ernie, GMac, Westwood, Oosthuizen, and Kaymer. Can you say tee-to-green!? It’s an easy track, with the score relative to par generally easier than 1-under-par. Birdies will be on the ballot, and they will be heavily voted on.

Correlated Tournaments

Deutsche Bank Championship: An easy course that’s played on bentgrass greens, against a strong field, just over 7,200 yards, and 11.5 on the stimp. This is basically Sheshan 2.0, okay not really but there are a lot of similarities there. Course horses in the field include: Senden, Dufner, Sergio, Stadler, Kirk, Scott, and Keegan.

WGC-Cadillac: Doral tacks stage here as another par 72 WGC event. There are a ton of ‘horses’ in the field this week: Charl, Senden, Dufner, Keegan, Bubba, Rose, Donald, Scott, Haas, G-Mac, and Sergio.

the Memorial: Muirfield Village is a par 72 course that plays just under 7,400 yards. It’s bentgrass and played very a strong, but not full field. Your horses here include Luke Donald, Charl Schwartzel, and Ryan Moore.

WGC-Bridgestone: It’s a par 70 played in Ohio but WGC events stick together. There seems to be a nice correlation from one WGC tournament to the next. Who has success at Bridgestone? Keegan, Dufner, Mahan, Rose, Moore, Westwood, Fowler, Jimenez, Stenson, Bubba, Scott.

Crowne Plaza: A 7,204 yard track with bentgrass greens that run the same 11.5 on the stimp. It’s on the easy side as well, which is nice. Horses include: Tim Clark, Palmer, and Kirk.

Taking a look at those five correlated tournaments we see Keegan, Scott, and Dufner show up three times, Senden, Moore, Rose, Charl, Bubba, and Kirk a couple times. Talk about ELITE. A lot of top-tier talent when it comes to correlated success. The cream of the crop is gonna rise to the top this week.

Players to Watch

Adam Scott: One of the biggest question marks in my mind. Do we dock him for not having a stable caddie on the bag, or does his talent trump that? Just look at the rise up the ranks he made with Stevie on the bag. Was that a coincidence or can we really dock Scott for having a lesser looper handing him a club? Oh, decisions, decisions. He makes for a top 5 pick regardless this week, but it will be an interesting storyline to follow over the next few months.

Justin Rose: He nearly won with his B or C-game last week, and will have a go at a familiar course this week. Unlike Scott, there aren’t any question marks surrounding Rose this week, and this makes him my #1 guy this week.

Hideki Matsuyama: The club testing went fine, and I’m not scared to back this week. Just not my favorite pick this week, but should finish top 30 for sure.

Ryan Palmer: Getting overranked by nearly everyone across the industry. This is Ryan Palmer we are talking about. He doesn’t deserve to be inside anyone’s top 10, ever. His run of form is great, but it’s also the greatest six-tournament stretch in his career. His career is not a short one. If it took him this long to put together a streak like this, I’m guessing it’s about to end. Get out while you can. Fade.

Patrick Reed: All the stats are telling me no, but my heart is telling me yes. I rarely get on board with the wildcard Reed, but something about his play ahead of this week tells me he’s turned a corner as far as consistency goes. I’m a fan this week.

Lee Westwood: Insert same blurb from last week…He’s won seven total tournaments on the Asian Tour and four on the Japan Tour. Westy also made it to a playoff at the 2007 HSBC Champions. Safe to say he enjoys playing in Asia.

Thomas Bjorn: Flying under the radar, but he’s finished between 15th and 45th in each of his last seven WGC starts. That’s got to account for something, right?

Sergio Garcia: The man to beat on many accounts this week. He’s been en fuego, and now heads to a course where he’s had success in the past. He won here in 2008 before it became an official event and finished 4th last year. Garcia has become a staple in the top 5 on a weekly basis and it’s about time he wins again on the PGA TOUR.

Jamie Donaldson: There are always a handful of players that enter WGC events with unbelievable form on their second-tier Tours, only to hit a wall once they face the PGA TOUR pros. He won the Czech Masters which has a strength of field of 62. That’s just barely above Web.com status. I’m not saying Donaldson can’t hang with the big boys, because he can. He did it many times last year, and even finished top 10 in two of his last three WGC events but his form looks too good to be true right now. I’m not fading Donaldson, but my expectations for him this week are a lot lower than most.

Victor Dubuisson: The quiet assassin is in fine form and always plays well on the continent of Asia.

Ernie Els: There must be something in the water in Shanghai that brings out the best in Ernie. He’s finished 11th or better in four of his last five trip to China and just when we thought he was a goner he found some form at the end of last season. He hasn’t gone all Vijay Singh on us…yet.

Rickie Fowler: Has to shake off the offseason rust. Can’t wait for the girlfriend ruining his game talk to surface if he does poorly this week. One thing is certain, his couple costume of Squints and Wendy from The Sandlot was on point!

Shane Lowry: An up-and-comer who is in top form. I can’t say I trust him, but he’s hard to ignore if you’re making multiple lineups on DraftKings.

My Top 25 for the 2014-15 WGC-HSBC Classic

1. Justin Rose

2. Sergio Garcia

3. Adam Scott

4. Charl Schwartzel

5. Graeme Mcdowell

6. Henrik Stenson

7. Jimmy Walker

8. Bubba Watson

9. Bill Haas

10. Martin Kaymer

11. Hideki Matsuyama

12. Lee Westwood

13. Keegan Bradley

14. Gary Woodland

15. Hunter Mahan

16. Rickie Fowler

17. Chris Kirk

18. Ryan Moore

19. Victor Dubuisson

20. Jordan Spieth

21. Jamie Donaldson

22. Ernie Els

23. Ian Poulter

24. Patrick Reed

25. John Senden

WGC-HSBC Champions – DraftKings Edition

What a bummer in Malaysia. Let’s forget last week happened and move onto China. All three of my sleepers were busts. Leishman and Lahiri weren’t killer due to the nature of no-cut events but Choooi collecting just 48 DraftKings points is about as bad as it gets for a guaranteed 72 holes.

Having just a few shares of highly-owned Graham DeLaet helps soften the blow, but there have definitely been better weeks. Like this upcoming one on DraftKings where the $100,000 Monster Drive is being held. It’s just a $27 entry with a chance to win $15,000. Best of all, the top 20% still get paid out.

This week we head to the first/last WGC event of the season depending on which TOUR you ask. The course is Sheshan International in Shangai. It’s a par 72 course that plays just under 7,300 yards. Pretty standard course. More on that tomorrow in the full preview, but now let’s have a look at some possible Monster Drive lineup combinations for DraftKings.

Team Asian Persuasion

Justin Rose @ $12,100: Top 10s in each of last five trips to Asia.

Ian Poulter @ $6,500: Top 10s in four of last six Asian events.

Sergio Garcia @ $11,500: Top 25s in each of his last six events played in Asia, including win at 2014 Qatar Masters

George Coetzee @ $6,000: 32nd place or better in six of last eight tournaments in Asia.

Darren Fichardt @ 4,600: Top 25s in seven of last 10 events in Asia.

This is a top-loaded team with Rose and Sergio taking up 47.2% of your alloted salary. Reaching down for a sleepers like Darren Fichardt and Coetzee allow it to be possible though. Fichardt and Coetzee are your big question marks here that will make or break you. Top this team off with a Donaldson, Moore, Spieth, Walker, or Horschel and you got yourself a nice high-risk, high-reward squad.

Course Horsery

Ernie Els @ $5,700: 11th-33rd-6th-2nd

Martin Kaymer @ $10,300: 8th-1st-30th-6th

Ian Poulter @ $6,500: 2nd-13th-13th-45th

Lee Westwood @ $7,200: 55th-13th-2nd-8th

Graeme McDowell @ $9,500: 3rd-3rd-34th

Sheshan International has been very, very good to these folks. Most weeks you’d have to break the bank to get this kind of course history on the same team, but with the age and form of some of these guys, they are currently discounted. Golfers like Charl, Rose, Scott, Keegan, and Donald were all right there as well, except their sample size was just two tournaments.

Handpicked Value Plays

Marc Leishman ($4,600): Time to go back to the Leishman well after he burned us last week. I had high hopes for him last week and was willing to take on his $7,300 price tag. He got off to a slow start before climbing into the top 40 by week’s end. After a 2,700 salary drop, Leishman will be high on my radar for the second straight week.

Ian Poulter ($6,500): This guy loves Asia. Top 15s in five of his last six events in Asia including a win at this event in 2012 (although at a different venue). I think at worst you get a top 30 outta Poulter this week, which should bag you nearly 70 DraftKings points. The upside is much higher though, as this event suits him well.

Lee Westwood ($7,200): Speaking of Asia, Westwood may be the King of Asia. You can’t count his number of wins on the continent with two hands. He was one of the top priced guys in last week’s CIMB Classic and now he’s below average salary after a 13th place finish. Don’t expect a win, but one of his signature podium finishes is not out of the question.

Sleeper Recap

Average Sleeper Salary: $6,400

Average DraftKings Points: 60.4

Average DraftKings Value: 9.44x (Target Value = 10x)

Average Finishing Position: 55th place

Sleepers that reached 10x Value: 5 of 12 (42%)

Missed Cuts: 3 of 12

Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Week 2

One week down, and nearly 40 more to go. We started off the DraftKings Golf Tour with a small 10-man contest but allowed write-in entries as well. It’s clear that a 10-team league will easily fill each week, so I will bump it up to 15 spots and so how quickly that fills this week. I wish there was an easier solution, like being able to guarantee the prize pool or allow the contest entries to expand as more people join. However, that’s not an option as of now on DraftKings, so we’ll keep doing it this way.

In Week 1 of the DFS Golf Tour, we saw anteup11 take down the 10-man contest with his Ryan Moore-Sergio Garcia combo. However, it was gweim with the write-in squad that took home the most DraftKings points. His trio of Moore-Garcia-Senden all finished inside the top 10, Westwood was just outside at 13th, and Jonathan Byrd was even top 25. Quite the squad both of these guys put together.

If you look at the lineups from last week, you’ll see a lot of guys got bit by the Graham DeLaet second-hole W/D. Luckily, this is a marathon, not a sprint, as I wasn’t too happy with the performances I got out of most of my golfers, either.

Standings

Prizes

The prizes aren’t set in stone yet, but I started brainstorming some. Here are some I had in mind. Feel free to comment if you have any prizes or prize categories that would be good.

Most Weekly Contests Won — Prize TBD

Highest Average Points per Week — Prize TBD

Highest Strokes Gained: DraftKings (Points above Average) — Prize TBD

Best Performance at the Majors — Prize TBD

Highest Single-Week Point Total — Prize TBD

Top Performer (First 20 Tournaments) — Prize TBD

Top Performer (Last 20 Tournaments) — Prize TBD

Week 2 Contest

Check back tonight when salaries get posted, and I will create-a-contest for week two and publish it here. In the mean time, go sign up for DraftKings now if you’re still on the fence. This is the perfect time to join and also get entered into this DraftKings Golf Tour.

FanDuel FFFC Qualifier: A Rookie Experience – Week 9

I got the defense right on the money last week, and even got a lucky return touchdown from the Chief’s defense. The Chief’s defense landed me 19 points, which is more than enough points to put me into the payout but my team wasn’t having it this week. I got a big goose egg out of nowhere from Michael Floyd, that was crushing on my teams potential.

I have to thank Josh Culp because my team landed 23.2 points out of Sammy Watkins, Josh made me rethink adding Sammy to my lineup. I replaced Doug Baldwin who failed to top 10 points this week. I also got an upgrade in points scored by having to switch to a “cheaper” kicker, I switched in Randy Bullock who landed me a solid 13 points.

My gut call even panned out for me with DeSean Jackson despite the fact I was worried about Colt McCoy, DJax finished the night with a solid 16.6 points. Kyle Orton did great landing me 26.6 points, not too bad for one of the lesser valued quarterbacks in week 7. Vereen ended up being forgotten because Rob Gronkowski was busy going off for insane fantasy points. I ended up with 139.02 points which is good for 4,029th place out of 16,949 entries.

On a side note, the start Teddy Bridgewater plan that I mentioned at the tail end of last week’s article panned out well. I entered that lineup into the $10 FanDuel FFFC qualifier as well, it ended up with 191.24 points, good for 70th place and $50. Notable players that led to that total are Arian Foster with 37.3 points, Rob Gronkowski with 37.4, and Chiefs defense who I had a good enough feeling to start twice coming in at 19 points.

Week 9 Starting Lineup
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Philadelphia Eagles – Cost: $6,400

Fitzpatrick doesn’t have the talent to put up big games all of the time, he generally manages the game and lets Arian Foster take care of the big plays. The Eagles have allowed 15 TDs and have 3 interceptions across 7 games, opposing quarterbacks have a 93.9 QB rating. Fitzpatrick has the weapons in Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to throw to against a secondary who hasn’t fared well against the pass. He has a decent chance at having an above average game this week.

RB: Frank Gore vs St. Louis Rams – Cost: $7,200

Frank Gore isn’t scoring at a very solid rate, he has 1 TD through 7 games. His value is down and his match up is about as good of one as you can find this week. Gore will be carrying the ball against the 2nd worst run defense in the league in the St. Louis Rams. They allow 144.3 rushing yards per game and 8 TDs through 7 games. Even though they are beyond their bye week they have allowed the most (10) 20+ yard runs and 2nd most (3) 40+ yard runs so far this season. Frank Gore still has the moves to tear through this Rams defense.

RB: Branden Oliver @ Miami Dolphins – Cost: $7,000

Branden Oliver came in playing very strong when he took over as the main ball carrier for the Chargers. He put up 32.2 fantasy points against the Jets and then 20.4 against the Raiders. He followed it up with two below average stat outputs against tough running defenses in the Chiefs and Broncos. The Broncos allow the least rushing yards per game this season and the Chiefs have not yet surrendered a rushing touchdown this season. The Dolphins are a middle of the road run defense and the Chargers can put up some points against them and hand it to Oliver a ton late in the game. I expect 12+ points with upside here. Donald Brown is expected back this week but I wouldn’t imagine him getting any more work than just to spell Oliver on some long drives.

WR: Demaryius Thomas @ New England Patriots – Cost: $9,200

Demaryius Thomas is a monster and his salary is now matching up with his output. I am going to pay for him because he has the potential to put up his worth with a little extra. The Patriots pass defense is stout this season, they are 2nd in passing yards allowed this season. These stats may be a little misleading however, through 8 games some of the quarterbacks they have faced haven’t been too phenomenal. The Patriots faced Matt Cassel, Derek Carr in his 3rd NFL start as a rookie, and Geno Smith who finally got benched in light of some terrible play. They haven’t faced a quarterback like Peyton Manning and all his targets, Peyton will find room and I hope that room is going to be afforded to Demaryius Thomas. Thomas has 4 straight games of 100+ yards and I don’t see him breaking that trend in a big game against the Patriots.

WR: Martavis Bryant vs Baltimore Ravens – Cost: $6,300

Martavis Bryant has put up two good stat lines in his first two NFL starts. The Steelers have been looking for a spark to get them trending in the right direction and it looks like they have found it. I don’t know if Bryant will put up another 2 TD game or not, nor will Big Ben manage to throw another 6 touchdowns in one game but Bryant’s size and speed will prove to be a great asset to the Steelers offense for a long time. I feel like he has some upside for a decently low price tag.

WR: Jeremy Maclin @ Houston Texans – Cost: $8,400

Jeremy Maclin is coming off of a huge game, of 12 catches, 187 receiving yards and 2 TDs. He shouldn’t struggle against the Texans secondary who has allowed 15 passing touchdowns through 8 games and hold the 4th worst rank at passing yards allowed. Maclin took a rough helmet to helmet shot against the Cardinals this past week before the half, he had to go through concussion protocol and then came back and continued to cut up the Arizona defense. Maclin cannot be stopped it seems, I would rather be on his side when he continues to go off for big points.

TE: Travis Kelce vs New York Jets – Cost: $5,400

Travis Kelce has been laying low for three week now, but he can bounce back in a big way this week. His talent hasn’t gone anywhere, he just hasn’t seen as much action of late. Against the Jets however, Kelce should be hauling in plenty of grabs, the Jets are out in front by 5 touchdowns for most passing touchdowns allowed with 22 through 8 games. Almost 3 passing touchdowns allowed per game is pretty rough and Kelce could use a big game here to bolster his confidence. I wouldn’t doubt that he could have his best game of his young career this week, and for $5,400 against the salary cap I say “yes please”.

K: Randy Bullock vs Philadelphia Eagles – Cost: $4,800

As long as the Texans remain competitive in this game I see plenty of field goal opportunities for Bullock. The Texans are pretty decent at moving the ball between the 20s but often fizzle out before they punch it in. The Eagles allow a good amount of yards, hoping to get 13 points or better from him this week like I did this past week. With kickers I try to save as much cap room as I can and find a low price with decent point potential and Bullock was it last week and I see the same potential this week.

D: Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets – Cost: $5,300

The Chiefs hooked me up last week against St. Louis and they play an offense that has struggled even more than the Rams have this season. They also are at home again and their defense does play quite better at home. Michael Vick is in this week instead of Geno Smith so there is some reason for hope for the Jets offense but Vick is only a small percentage of what he used to be. He wasted his talent when he missed a huge chunk of time during his prime for criminal activity. Vick lost 2 fumbles, threw 1 interception and was sacked four times against the Bills after replacing Geno Smith early in the game. The Jets have averaged a measly 18 points per game. The Chiefs are primed for an easy win here and hopefully can throw in a defensive touchdown off an errant Vick throw. Oh, I almost forgot, the Jets have committed 18 turnovers in 8 games, more than 2 a game, their turnover ratio is worst in the league by 5 turnovers. They are sitting at a -15 turnover ratio so I don’t have to worry about the Jets getting too many takeaways and leaving KC’s defense out to dry on a short field.

I have been very much enjoying my FanDuel adventure and would like to thank Josh Culp for introducing me to the daily fantasy sports (DFS) world. It really has been a blast. I haven’t been as animated as I was this past Sunday for a non Broncos game probably ever, I was shouting at Sammy Watkins on two separate occasions. The first time for slowing up and not getting that touchdown and the second time for him to keep running full speed to actually score. When he scored that touchdown I spent some time in 1st place with my 2nd entry which was really neat, I had dreams of a Vegas trip running through my head. It wasn’t to be but there is always next week. I find myself checking my FanDuel lineups before I check for my season long fantasy lineups while the games are going, although my 2 season long teams I am running are looking like they will push deep into the playoffs anyhow. There will always be a place in my heart for traditional fantasy football but there is enough room for FanDuel to be a big part of my football season as well and I intend to keep playing.

I will be getting married on Sunday, November 9th to my best friend and I couldn’t be happier, although I may have been happier if it didn’t mean that I had to miss an entire football Sunday. Luckily the Broncos play the Raiders that Sunday so it shouldn’t be a situation where I miss an amazing game or anything. It has been a good year for me, the Broncos have begun to run over their opponents, they have won by 14 or more the past 4 games, and their opponents haven’t exactly been the bottom of the barrel.

The DraftKings Huddle: Week 9 Plays and Lineups

Wow, Week 9 already huh? This season is flying by and I don’t recall one in recent memory where we’ve experienced so many injuries.  Things were looking good this past week as we were sitting with a healthy 137 points with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant to go.  Well as you now already know, Romo suffered a back injury and the rest is history.  Let’s shake it off and prepare for yet another exciting week of NFL.

The DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament has been seeing some overlay the last couple weeks and I would expect it once again this week.  If you like free money and want to be the next Millionaire, head on over to DraftKings.com and lets get that money.

Positional Cheat Sheet

Quarterbacks:

1.) Russell Wilson/Seahawks/$7,800

2.) Colin Kaepernick/49ers/$7,000

3.) Andy Dalton/Bengals/$6,300

Running Backs:

1.) Marshawn Lynch/Seahawks/$6,100

2.) Ronnie Hillman/Broncos/$5,600

3.) Shane Vereen/Patriots/$4,600

Wide Receivers:

1.) Antonio Brown/Steelers/$9,100

2.) Emmanuel Sanders/Broncos/$8,000

3.) Jeremy Maclin/Eagles/$7,600

4.) A.J. Green/Bengals/$6,300

5.) Andre Johnson/Texans/$5,500

6.) Andrew Hawkins/Browns/$4,900

Tight Ends:

1.) Julius Thomas/Broncos/$5,600

2.) Antonio Gates/Chargers/$5,300

3.) Larry Donnell/Giants/$4,600

Defense:

1.) Bengals/$3,300

2.) Chiefs/$3,300

3.) 49ers/$3,200

Sample Lineups:

The first thing you’ll notice when building lineup on DraftKings this week is their pricing.  Overall, I think they did a great job making salaries much sharper than we’ve seen through the last eight weeks.  This lineup comes with risk but I like the Bengals matchup this week if A.J. Green can get back on the field.  Hawkins is becoming a PPR stud and is coming off back to back 20+ fantasy point weeks.  Vereen hurt a lot of people last week but with the weather forecast for Sunday in New England, I think the Pats will need to get him involved if they want to win.  Side note is Vereen’s price tag.

Tate has killed me in back to back weeks now but I’m giving him one more chance.  Top wide receivers are very pricey this week so in order to fit a couple in, I went with two value running backs.  Tate has another great matchup while Taliaferro will see added touches with Pierce ruled out and Forsett battling injuries of his own.  Brown is priced an insane $9,100.  Having said this, his ownership should be lower than normal and we all know he’s near a lock for 5 receptions and a touchdown for his floor.  I like Sanders this week as he could be the X-factor for the Broncos this Sunday.

The first thing that jumps out with this line up is stacking two tight ends.  A couple of years ago this would be a big no no but things have changed.  Both Gronk and Thomas get plenty of red zone targets and given the weather forecast for Sunday afternoon in New England, I can see the quaterbacks using their tight ends early and often.  The weather factor along with his price drop are the reasons I like Edelman this week as well.  McCoy is finally starting to come around and with 20+ carries in three straight weeks, I’m jumping on the train when he has his breakthrough performance of 2014.

CIMB Classic Fantasy Preview

As the TOUR tees it up overseas in Malaysia for the 2015 CIMB Classic, we must prepare ourselves for a great week of night golf. That also means this preview is being published on Tuesday night instead of Wednesday morning like usual. Two cheers for that!

With the greens only running at 11 on the stimp and soft & humid conditions, the holes will be wide open for par-breaking attacks. The traditionally poor putters will get a leg up as they will be able to fire away with their flat stick and not be punished too heavily by putting misses. I doubt there will be many three-putts this week, but I have been wrong before.

Driving distance has been highlighted in a lot of previews I’ve read across the web this week so I took a closer look. Sure, plenty of bombers have gotten into contention here but Ryan Moore and Lee Westwood are definitely not bombers. They are the latest two golfers to win on the course. Chris Stroud finished third last year and he struggles to pump his drives out there. Matteo Manassero won here as a young pup, and he’s the opposite of bomber. More importantly, I ran the correlations of driving distance to finishing position over the past few years, and while there is a small correlation, it’s not even in the top five as far as statistics go. Basically, what I took away from this deep-dive was that bombers can certainly gain an advantage on this course but tacticians often prevail in the end. That means it’s a good fair test of golf, and that’s what I like to see.

Rather than focusing on driving distance, I’d rather take a look at par 5 scoring average and strokes gained: tee-to-green.

Correlated Tournaments

Humana Challenge: Played on a course rota of par 72 short courses with greens slowed down to accomodate the amateurs, this course lines up pretty well with this week’s event. Some course horses at Humana include Tim Clark, Matt Jones, and Jason Dufner. Patrick Reed won last year’s running, Jhonny Vegas won in 2010 and Pat Perez won in 2009. The last two might make for decent off the radar options.

OHL Classic at Mayakoba: Played on a par 71 track at just 6,987 yards with Sea Isle Paspalum greens. Hello! The greens are set to run at 10.5 so they are slower than average, just like this week. Mayakoba and Humana even share two of the same winners over the past 10 years. Brian Gay and Mark Wilson have won both events, unfortunately they aren’t in the field this week. Chris Stroud has top 5s in each of the past three years here. He also finished third at CIMB last year. Bingo.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Another event played with slower greens for the sake of amateur play. All the courses are under 6,900 yards as well. Steven Bowditch the only course horse in this week’s field but Patrick Reed has finished top 13 in his first two tries at Pebble. There’s that name again, Patrick Reed.

Players to Watch

David Lipsky: He’s played the course four times now and even finished as high as third place. His caddie is from Malaysia so course knowledge will be with him. The talent is inferior but he’s got plenty of other factors on his side to make him a nice DFS sleeper.

Hideki Matsuyama: Just a pure stud in the making. Says he’ll be testing new clubs the next few weeks. Not sure if they are still Srixon or not, but I’m docking him for uncertainty with the clubs. Sorry.

Lee Westwood: He won here at the 2014 Maybank Malaysian. He’s won seven total tournaments on the Asian Tour and four on the Japan Tour. Westy also made it to a playoff at the 2007 HSBC Champions. Safe to say he enjoys playing in Asia.

Prom Meesawat: Has been a course horse but he noted that the rough is shorter during this week’s practice rounds than in years past. Add in that he has a cold, which is not ideal when players often complain about the climate conditions here. I don’t want to back a player that is trying to overcome an illness. So, while the upside is there for Prom, I won’t go after Prom this week.

Gary Woodland: Fell just short here last year, but hasn’t teed it up since the TOUR Championship. Might need a round or two to shake off the rust.

Billy Horschel: The course fits hit play style on paper as he drives the ball great and hits green after green, but he’s still adjusting to the father lifestyle and counting his FedExCup money. I’m not in full fade mode like I was his last time out, but I will remain hesitant until he shows me something post-FEC title. This could be the week he gets back on track as he’ll back distraction-less time zones away from the new father lifestyle.

Brendon de Jonge: He put the Scotty Cameron back in the bag last week and saw immediate results. I don’t like the turnaround right after being in contention, so I think I’ll pass for the most part this week. I will be watching his putting closely this week.

Jason Knutzon: As an Iowa State Cyclone alum, I can’t help but get on board with Knutzon this week. He’s finished top 17 in three of the past five Malaysian Opens. With a no-cut event on tap, I won’t be afraid to fire him up on DraftKings.

Brian Stuard: I can’t wait for Stuard to completely troll me this week. He continues to shit the bed on Fridays, but I keep backing him. It’s another perfect opportunity for him to shine on a short track. Looking at the correlated courses and his last four finishes at Humana and Maykoba are as follows: 2nd-2nd-5th-10th. I hate to do it, but I will grab a few shares once again this week.

Sergio Garcia: As consistent as it comes but I’d rather wait until we get a run of form rather than a month break after celebrating the Ryder Cup and nearly two months removed from a stroke-play event. Plus, there is a ton of water on the course and Sergio will inevitably find it.

My Top 25 for the 2015 CIMB Classic

1. Charl Schwartzel

2. Marc Leishman

3. Sergio Garcia

4. Lee Westwood

5. Gary Woodland

6. Graham DeLaet

7. Hideki Matsuyama

8. Ryan Moore

9. Billy Horschel

10. Patrick Reed

11. Brendon de Jonge

12. Paul Casey

13. John Senden

14. Kevin Chappell

15. Kevin Na

16. K.J. Choi

17. Seung-Yul Noh

18. J.B. Holmes

19. Chris Stroud

20. Will MacKenzie

21. Kevin Streelman

22. Stewart Cink

23. Jason Dufner

24. Anirban Lahiri

25. Retief Goosen

CIMB Classic – DraftKings Edition

After Robert Streb took care of Will MacKenzie and Brendon de Jonge in a playoff to secure his first PGA TOUR win, we will now head overseas to Kuala Lampur for the CIMB Classic.

It was a great start to the season, but last week was quite disappointing for my sleepers, and my lineups overall. I pinpointed a lot of great plays but found a lot of land mines in the form of Charley Hoffman, Brian Stuard, and Harris English. Let’s see if we can’t get back on track in Malaysia.

Short Course Studs

K.J. Choi @ $6,400: Top 45s in nine of last 11 short course events.

Marc Leishman @ $7,300: 11th or better in five of last 10 short track tournaments, including win at 2012 Travelers.

Ryan Moore @ $9,000: Top 25s in six of last 10 short track tournaments including win here last year.

Brendon de Jonge @ $8,800: Top 25s in seven of last 17 events played on short courses.

Patrick Reed @ 9,500: Top 20s in five of last nine events played on short venues, including victory at 2014 Humana.

These are the short course heroes. I excluded Brian Stuard from this list after the last two weeks but he still makes for a great boom-bust option on short venues. He just can’t find his swing on Fridays. Maybe the time change will help that. Other guys that know how to deal with short coures: Horschel, Sergio, Charl, Pat Perez, Overton, Streelman, Tim Clark.

Course Horsery

Charl Schwartzel @ $11,600: 4th-6th-11th

Jason Knutzon @ $4,300: 13th-127th-47th-17th-9th

Prom Meesawat @ $6,000: 24th-28th-24th-80th

Rikard Karlberg @ $4,900: 5th-74th-16th-87th

These guys have the experience at Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club. Not exactly safe plays, here, but that’s what we are looking at. These results are from the last five years of the Maybank Malaysian Open. With these prices, I included only four guys as you can afford nearly anyone as your final two golfers.

Handpicked Value Plays

Marc Leishman ($7,300): I’ve got Leishman in my top three this week, so he is an automatic play for me at less than 15% of my salary. He celebrated his 31st birthday last week and now tees it up relatively close to his native land of Australia. He crushes par 72s and eats short courses for breakfast.

Anirban Lahiri ($7,100): Fresh off a win last week in China and has course history on his side. He finished T10 at the 2014 Malaysian Open on the same course and went 2-1-0 at the EurAsia Cup, including a singles won over hearththrob, Victory Dubi. The 27-year old has five Asian Tour wins, and this would be the perfect time to make a PGA TOUR splash.

K.J. Choi ($6,400): Finished T14 here last year and he’s no stranger to the Asian continent, winning 10 times on Asian soil in his career. He finished runner-up to Seung-yul Noh at this very venue back at the 2010 Maybank Malaysian Open. Quite a bargain for less than 6.5K.

Sleeper Recap

Average Sleeper Salary: $6,200

Average DraftKings Points: 61

Average DraftKings Value: 9.84x (Target Value = 10x)

Average Finishing Position: 55th place

Sleepers that reached 10x Value: 5 of 9 (55%)

Missed Cuts: 3 of 9