Josh Culp's Blog, page 45

The DraftKings Huddle: Week 6 Plays

Yet another Daily Fantasy Football millionaire was crowned in Week 5 as SamENole took down the DraftKings Millionaire Maker.  I manged to put together a great week but sadly I didn’t win the million.  Have no fear though, DraftKings is holding nothing back this season and will once again the $27 Millionaire Maker tournament this week.  Turn $27 in $1,000,000.  What do you say we jump right in with this weeks picks:

Quaterbacks:

Peyton Manning/Broncos/$9,400: This price tag will be pretty tough to work no doubt.  Having said this, Peyton easily has the highest floor and highest ceiling on a week to week basis.  Lets take a closer look at this week shall we?  The Broncos face off against a terrible Jets secondary who are giving up the 4th most point to opposing quarterbacks.  I can easily see a 30 point floor this week so if you’re chasing a million dollars consider Peyton as after-all SamENole did and look what happened to him.



Eli Manning/Giants/$7,800: The price here is a bit too high for my liking but the match-up here is hard to ignore. Giants face off against an Eagles team that is giving up the most fantasy point to quarterbacks this season.  The Vegas over/under on this match-up is a healthy 50 points which means points are going to be scored on both ends. Eli should fairly lowed on in the big field GPP’s due to his price so this is all the more reason to consider him when building lineups for this weekend.



Ben Roethlisberger/Steelers/$6,500: The one thing that jumped out at me during my research this week is Big Ben’s passing attempts per game.  Ben is averaging a very healthy 35.5 passing attempts per game going for a total of  TD’s through 5 weeks.  This week the Steelers travel to Cleveland in what should be a beatable match-up as the Browns gave up 365 yards to this very offense in Week 1.  Once again this is somewhat of a contrarian play that I would only recommend in GPP formats.

Running Backs:

Matt Forte/Bears/$8,800: This price tag is really high but once again the match-up is worth looking at. This week, Forte should himself a huge day against a Falcons defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to running backs.  Forte has yet to find the end zone this season which is concerning but his value on DraftKings really comes in with his pass catching abilities.  It’s also worth noting here that Vegas has this game as the highest O/U on the board this week: 53 total points.

Fred Jackson/Bills/$5,000: Jackson has all but lost rushing duties in Buffalo to C.J. Spiller.  Having said this, Jackson is a PPR stud posting 7/6/8 receptions his last three games.  I love this production and  consistency especially for a $5,000 salary. Jackson’s situation in Buffalo reminds me of Danny Woodhead in San Diego last year.  Jackson won’t find the end-zone on a regular basis but his value is on full PPR sites like DraftKings.

Reggie Bush/Lions/$4,600

Or Joique Bell/Lions/$3,700: At this point, it looks like Bell will be returning from his concussion.  Having said this, you will certainly want to follow this situation closely as match-up is good and their prices are even better.  The lions face off against the Vikings this week who are giving up the 7th most fantasy points to running backs.  Bush was one of the biggest disappointments last week but if reports come out that he is healthy and good to go, I can assure you he’ll find his way in my lineups for this extremely low price tag.

Wide Receivers:

Demaryius Thomas /Broncos/$8,000: Thomas put up a sick stat line last week – 8/226/2.  Pretty much anyone that took the risk (or lack thereof) of stacking the Broncos last week cashed in all their DFS contests.  Looking at this week, a Peyton/Thomas stack could very well lead you in the money once again.  The Broncos are facing the Jets this week who are giving up the 3rd most point to opposing receivers.  Although I can’t imagine Thomas putting up the same numbers as last week, I can easily see a line of 7/115/1 this week.

Antonio Brown/Steelers/$7,900: WR value is once again plentiful this week but I do like the match-ups of these top priced guys as well.   Brown will face off this week vs a Browns secondary he torched in Week 1 for 5/116/1.  This week Brown should easily match these numbers if not top them as early reports are that Browns CB Joe Haden will more than like sit this one out with a hip injury.  Regardless of who’s guarding Brown we all know he will get his fair share of targets.  Through the first 5 weeks of the season, Brown as had at least 5 receptions in each game.  Play Brown with confidence in all formats this week.



Eric Decker/Jets/$4,600: Its well documented that Decker is battling a hamstring injury but as Wednesday, reports are that hes on the practice field.  I’ll be honest in that on the outside of things this match-up does look great.  Having said this, Decker’s price is just too good to not have some exposure giving the fact the Jets will be playing from behind and will need to throw to have any chance of staying in this game.  Decker is a high risk play but with such a low price to pay, he could easily reach value and be a nice contrarian play this week.

Tight Ends:

Rob Gronkowski/Patriots/$5,800: For the first time in nearly two year Gronk is off of the Patriots injury report.  Last week Gronk played over 75% of the Pats snaps and once again found the end zone.  Gronk has TD’s in 4 out of 5 games this season and his chances look good again this coming Sunday.  Jump on board the Gronk train before his price really starts taking off like we’ve seen in years past.

Martellus Bennett/Bears/$5,500: Bennett had his least productive game of the season last week.  Having said this, Bennett has been fantastic this year snagging at least 5 receptions in each game prior to Week 5.  Bennett does not have the best of match-ups this week but we know the Bears will be in a shootout vs the Falcons.  I mentioned above that this game has the highest over/under per Las Vegas odd makers.



Larry Donnell/Giants/$3,500: Donnell put up a goose egg last week but he confirmed that the Falcons game planned to take him out of the passing game.  This really does not concern me as Manning clearly has confidence in his TE.  Prior to last week, Donnell recorded at least 5 receptions in every game.  I mentioned above that I love the match-up for Manning and I can really see Donnell get back to the end zone this week given the current injury situation on the Eagles defense.

Defense:

Packers/$3,300

Broncos/$3,100

Titans/$2,900

Frys.com Open Fantasy Preview

It’s a busy time for sports with NFL in full swing, the puck dropping in NHL, and preseason NBA kicking off. Ignore all that and clear your schedules, because the PGA TOUR is back. After a three-week hiatus, the boys are back in town.

This week the town is Napa, California. Wine country. The golfers won’t be putting their wine drinking skills to the test, at least not til after the rounds. Instead they will take on The North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa. The course is a par 72 being played at 7,203 yards. It’s on the shorter side for a par 72, but definitely not tiny. I struggled to find any published fact sheet for the course but as is the case with most California course, I’m guessing we will be dealing with bentgrass/poa annua on the greens.

Correlated Stats: With no competitive course history at Silverado Resort over the recent years and a plethora of Web.com Tour grads, statistics can be thrown out the window for this week. Of course, you can always use a golfer’s true skill stat, which isn’t a real stat but instead you could look at the past few years of strokes gained: total to find out who the cream of the crop really is.

Correlated Tournaments: Johnny Miller was a part of the redesign done at this venue, and he’s been quoted comparing the course to Augusta National. Okay, Johnny, keep telling yourself that. Just like when I cook a fancy meal it resembles one that Chef Robert Irvine made. With so little info on the course, it’s best to avoid trying to compare apples with new fruit nobody has ever tried.

Players to Watch

Jimmy Walker: Oh Jimmmmmy. Walker is the King of Cali, and has posted top 10s in 10 of his last 14 California tournaments. Safe to say he loves that bentgrass/poa putting surface. While he is defending his first PGA TOUR win, you should trot him out there with confidence.

Brandt Snedeker: Snedeker made waves through social media with his skeet shooting with a 4-iron, but that won’t pay the bills. Winning tournaments will. Sneds and Poa go hand-in-hand. While last year was a setback in his Cali conquests, prior to that he had won two of his last five attempts on Cali courses. Fire him up!

Russell Knox: Knox could be this year’s Brendon Todd if he gets things rolling. Literally, he needs to learn how to putt. His tee-to-green game is always on-point, so it will come down to how he handles these unfamiliar greens. Winning potential here, with a top 30 very likely.

Graham DeLaet: Speaking of winning, this guy still hasn’t won? Taking on a weak field like this one, look for GDL to post an easy top 10 with a chance to win if he finds his putter.

Brian Stuard: The man who loves to take on weak fields and flourish doing it. He has seven top 10s in his last 18 events played versus weak fields. Not scared of Cali, either, finishing 30th or better in four of his last six trips here. Not a sure thing, especially after the slump we saw in the middle of last season, but the upside is certainly there for Brian Stewie.

Patrick Rodgers: Looked poised to make a charge last season after his pro debut, but some ailments held him back in the end. Just barely missed out on the Web.com grad status, but he was still bombs away. Now he gets to play in his back yard, just a few hours from Stanford University. With about a month to rest after his last event, I like his chances to show up big this week.

Jeff Overton: Overton loves weak fields. Top 10s in five of his last 20 weak field events with a median finish of 32nd place. Don’t be scared of this Hoosier.

Charles Howell III: It’s early season which means tier-two fields, which means Leslie Chowell the Third will be right up there on the leaderboard.

Luke Guthrie: Guthrie actually has a sneaky good California resume. Although he doesn’t have any top 10s to boast, he’s finished 40th or better in seven of his eight trips to Cali. Hmmmm. Sneaky, sneaky.

Justin Thomas: Go ahead and “watch” him closely, but I’d avoid picking him just yet. Being a Southern gent from Kentucky & Alabama, I’d wait until Bermuda season to pull the trigger unless he starts off on a torrid pace that can’t be ignored.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Frys.com Open

1. Matt Kuchar

2. Jimmy Walker

3. Hideki Matsuyama

4. Graham DeLaet

5. Hunter Mahan

6. Lee Westwood

7. Kevin Chappell

8. Marc Leishman

9. Charles Howell III

10. Brandt Snedeker

11. Brooks Koepka

12. Russell Knox

13. Daniel Summerhays

14. Cameron Tringale

15. Bo Van Pelt

16. Harris English

17. Chris Stroud

18. Brendon de Jonge

19. Martin Laird

20. Jerry Kelly

21. Jason Kokrak

22. Carl Pettersson

23. Kevin Streelman

24. Luke Guthrie

25. Patrick Rodgers

Golf is back on DraftKings.
Turn $200 into $10,000 or $27 into $7,500 this week playing o DraftKings.

Frys.com Open – DraftKings Edition

Welcome back after a long and grueling offseason. We spent the last three weeks reflecting on our mistakes or basking in our glory of winning our leagues. Now it’s back to grind.

The first week out of the gate is a doozy. It’s the Frys.com Open, but here’s the catch. It’s played at a new venue, and we get a boatload of Web.com Tour grads to handicap as well. I would advise against getting too excited about any of the graduates just yet. No matter what stat you want to look at on the Web.com Tour, the transition to the PGA TOUR just can’t be counted on. For example in 2013, Edward Loar was third in scoring average, fourth in all-around ranking, and fourth in regular season money list. Fast forward a year, and the Texan went 3-for-19 and failed to finish inside the top 50 a single time.

John Peterson was another guy that looked like a cant-miss prospect after his time on the Web.com Tour, but we all know how that ended up last year.

There were definitely some guys that made the transition, but even then, consistency wasn’t the name of the game. I’m looking at you Chesson Hadley, Ben Martin, and Will MacKenzie. Feel free to take a shot on one or two guys this week in deeper formats, but please don’t get carried away.

I’m going to keep this short this week. I’m going to throw out the California Love team and then give some value plays. It’s shorter than usual, but check back tomorrow for the full preview…Now onto some DK picks:

California Love

Jimmy Walker @ $11,200: The King of Cali, ten top 10s in his last 14 Cali tourneys, including two wins.

Hunter Mahan @ $10,800: Top 25s in seven of his last nine Cali tournaments.

Vijay Singh @ $4,900: Top 50s in nine of last 13 Cali.

Bryce Molder @ $6,300: Top 40s in 11 of last 17 Cali, including ’11 Frys win.

Brandt Snedeker @ $9,900: Top 25s in six of last nine Cali, including two wins.

This team is based on performance in California tournaments over the past four years. I stuck with the high sample size guys. That explains the exclusion of Hideki Matsuyama who has finished 16th and 3rd in two Cali trips. Also, Kuchar has played seven Cali events since 2011 and hasn’t finished outside of 38th place. Consistency is the name of his game. This core lineup leaves you with $6,900 for your sixth and final spot.

Handpicked Value Plays

Cameron Wilson @ $4,100: My favorite sleeper this week, but it’s really just a gut play. The stats won’t back me up on this one as he’s 0-for-4 on TOUR so far. What I really like is his college pedigree and familiarity with the area. Playing at Stanford as recent as last year, he posted the second-lowest all time stroke average at Stanford in a season of 69.76, bested only by teammate Patrick Rodgers. You don’t just stumble onto a 69.76 scoring average. His Sagarin College Ranking was fourth overall last season. For basically min. price, I am going to take a shot on some Wilson this week. Speaking of Rodgers, he makes a juicy GPP play as well this week at just over $5K.

Daniel Summerhays @ $6,700: Last year he made the move from high-risk, high-reward into the steady-eddie category. Summerhays missed just five of 27 cuts last season and landed inside the top 25 on eight occasions. He’s not quite up there with de Jonge and DeLaet for guys that are due for a win, but at the same time, a win would not surprise any of his followers. At $6,700 you are getting a great cash game play.

Brendon de Jonge @ $7,000: Still one of the finest talents without a win on TOUR. Could easily get overlooked this week as some players stockpile the favorites and round out their team with scrubs. The only downside with the Zimbawean is his lack of high finishes last year. He didn’t earn any podium finishes and yielded just two top 10s. For $7,000 you are paying for the consistency, and also the ability to fire rounds of 62 immediately following a round of 80.

FanDuel FFFC: A Rookie Experience – Week 5

I had rookie luck at the start but it has come and gone. I have decided I need to go with more gut calls. My lineup had Travis Kelce (8 catches, 93 yards, TD) in it and I was overthinking the matchup until I decided to bench him and clear up cap room for a more expensive TE in Jason Witten (5 catches, 61 yards) that scored less. This also was where I traded out Antonio Brown who had 7 catches, 131 yards, 2 TDs.

I don’t think I need to talk too much about key players as all of them seemed to fall flat on their faces in Week 4. My team had one receiving touchdown by Brandon Marshall who totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards. I had 0 rushing touchdowns from my players and only Colin Kaepernick managed to break the illusive 10 point mark. I placed well over 20,000 out of 23,793 entrants, I hope I can only move on up from here.

Week 5 Team:
QB: Mike Glennon @ New Orleans Saints Cost: $6,100

Glennon only completed half of his passes (21 of 42) but ended up with 302 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. The Saints are the 3rd worst team in the league against the pass allowing just shy of 300 yards per game, they have allowed 7 TDs passing as well. Glennon’s cheap price allowed me to grab up a ton of talent at other positions and if he does as well as I believe he will then I won’t be sacrificing many points at the QB position either. The down side is he will be without rookie Mike Evans, but the upside is that Louis Murphy and Vincent Jackson are still good to go and they combined for 9 catches, 131 receiving yards and 1 TD last Sunday.

RB: Le’Veon Bell @ Jacksonville Jaguars Cost: $8,600

Bell has been putting together a very solid season and the Jaguars are pretty weak against the run at 130.5 yards per game allowed, 25th in the league. This is also a game where the Steelers ought to be in a lead for much of it but at the same time they have been underachieving lately so the Jaguars may stay in this one long enough to keep Bell running the whole game.

RB: DeMarco Murray vs Houston Texans Cost: $9,000

DeMarco Murray is on a tear and it doesn’t figure to stop against the Texans who are 24th against the run allowing 130.2 yards per game. His 99 carries for 534 yards and 5 rushing TDs, adding 9 catches and 68 receiving yards is more output than you could ask for from a fantasy running back. The price is steep but will be worth it as he continues to dominate this season.

WR: Kelvin Benjamin vs Chicago Bears Cost: $7,100

Benjamin is proving that he is a capable #1 wide out even as a rookie. He now has 21 catches for 329 yards receiving and 3 TDs. The Bears are middle of the road against the pass and have allowed 7 passing touchdowns so far this season. Benjamin would have had 2 TDs last week if not for a penalty reversing one of them; this guy is a monster red zone target and has been doing work all over the field so far.

WR: Victor Cruz vs Atlanta Falcons Cost: $7,000

Victor Cruz has the benefit of the Giants’ offense starting to get their head above water; he has two 100+ yard games back to back. The Falcons are the 3rd worst in passing yards allowed and as long as the Giants can keep their offense on the roll that they are, Victor Cruz should have a great outing.

WR: Keenan Allen vs New York Jets Cost: $7,000

The second year wide out struggled in weeks 1-3 to get started against 3 very strong defenses (Arizona, Seattle, Buffalo) and bounced back against the porous Jacksonville passing defense. Allen collected 10 catches for 135 yards receiving this past week. While the Jets are 10th in passing yards allowed, they have allowed 9 passing touchdowns and have 0 interceptions. Their secondary leaves more to be desired, Rivers will make them pay and Allen should be a big part of that.

TE: Travis Kelce @ San Francisco Cost: $5,300

Kelce does not have a great matchup, nor did he on Monday against the New England Patriots. Against the Patriots he had 8 catches for 93 yards and a TD. Overall I just find Kelce’s talent to be way beyond his price tag, he is better than more than half of the tight ends that are more costly than he is.

K: Robbie Gould @ Carolina Panthers Cost: $4,600

The Bears have been very productive in the red zone which is why Gould has failed to break double digits in a game so far this season. The Panthers’ defense at home should be able to stop the Bears a few times. Gould is 5-5 on field goal attempts so far this season so if he gets the attempts, he should convert.

D: Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots Cost: $5,300

Quarterbacks who have faced the Bengals so far this season average a QB rating of 56.9 (lowest in the NFL), and have thrown 2 TDs and 6 INTs. Brady’s QB rating so far this season is 79.1 throwing 1 TD per game so far and coming off of a 2 interception game. The Patriots offense is averaging 20 points a game, good for 24th in the league and that includes a game where they put up 30 points against the Minnesota Vikings where their defense scored 1 of their TDs and Matt Cassel aided them by throwing 4 interceptions giving them a short field often. Defense has been a rough spot for a few weeks for me but this has the recipe for domination written all over it.

This is the strongest good vibe I have gotten from a team that I have selected. The biggest worry I have at this point is that as I am setting this lineup there is still a chance that Josh McCown’s thumb is healthy enough to play. I doubt they will sit Glennon this week for an injured McCown but I have seen stranger things. My lineup may need to be turned upside down in that event. I am going to call my shot and say this will be the 2nd time I get into the payout. I am hoping I am not eating my words next week.

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The DraftKings Huddle: Week 5 Plays

Week 4 is in the books and I think its safe to say it was the week of landmines.  There were so many juicy match ups across the board and things just weren’t meant to be…Yes I’m looking at you Drew Brees and you Donald Brown.  Having said all this, I’m happy with the performances that were put in by Matt Stafford, Matt Forte, Travis Kelce and many others. 

Enough about last week, Week 5 is here and you know what that means?  Its DraftKings $27 Millionaire Maker tournament.  Yes for $27 bucks, you can direct buy into this tournament and have a shot at the $1,000,000 1st prize pay out.  What do you say we jump right in with this weeks picks:

Quarterbacks:

Drew Brees/Saints/$8,900: Should we puke now or later?  Brees once again has a terrific match up vs. the Buccaneers who gave up 314/3 to Ben Roethlisberger last week.  Brees put up 24.2 fantasy points last week but we need more to pay off his high salary.  We mention time and time again that Brees is a much stronger play at home and that’s exactly what we get this week.  Vegas has the over/under this week at a healthy 48 points and the Saints a 10.5 point favorite.  I’m willing to give Brees one more chance this week and I think you should too.

Phillip Rivers/Chargers/$7,000: El Capitan will be very high owned this week due to his soft pricing and incredible recent production.  Focusing on this week specifically, Rivers has a very nice match up vs. a terrible Jets secondary who are giving up the 4th most point to fantasy QB’s this season.  Rivers is has been excellent this season putting up  9 TD’s through Week 4.  Possibly the most impressive thing to note here is that Rivers has only threw 1 INT so far.  His offensive line has been bitten by the injury bug but it appears his favorite receiver Kennan Allen is healthy as the two hooked up for 10/135/0 in Week 4.

Kirk Cousins/Redskins/$6,500: Contrarian plays will be needed this week if you want to win a million dollars.  Cousins certainly fits into the category this week but he obviously comes with risk.  Back to Cousins for a minute, he had a terrible Thursday night performance that burned many who bought into his recent success.  I think Cousins will need to have big bounce back game and Seattle has shown some early season rust defending the pass.  At $6,500, Cousins won’t need a monster day to pay off his price tag.  Another value play I like this week is Blake Bortles but he will be much higher owned.

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray/Cowboys/$7,500: Mr consistency!  Murray has gone for at least 100 yards and a TD in every game this season.  This week the Cowboys face off against the Houston Texans who are giving up the 15th most fantasy points to running backs through the first four weeks.  Start Murray with confidence this week and enjoy the cheap price tag while it lasts.

Giovani Bernard/Bengals/$6,700: Gio faces the Patriots who are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to running backs this season.  If you watched Monday Night Football this past week then you saw Jamaal Charles find the red zone 3 times vs the Patriots.  Something to note here is that two of them were through the air.  Given that Gio is averaging 3.8 receptions per game, I really like this match up and think more people will be on Le’Veon Bell making Bernard an even better play.

Rashad Jennings/Giants/$5,500: Look at this price, yum!  He will be high owned but rostering Jennings really helps you fit in a top tier talent this week.  The Giants face off against an Atlanta defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to running backs this season.  An interesting note here is that Atlanta is giving up a almost 7 receptions to opposing running backs this season.  Jennings is not known for his pass catching ability but expect him to get a few this week that will only increase his value.

Wide Receivers:

Julio Jones/Falcons/$8,000: It could be just me but Julio has quietly put together a very consistent first 4 weeks.  Looking week to week, Jones has totaled 29 receptions and 3 TD’s.  This week, the Falcons face off against the Giants who are actually much improved this season vs. the pass.  Have no fear though Vegas has this game at a 50.5 O/U which is the highest total on the board this week.

Emmanuel Sanders/Broncos/$5,100: WR value is plentiful this week and I plan on taking advantage of it.  Sanders comes off a bye week to face a Cardinals defense that is giving up the 4th most receptions this season. Wes Welker is back on the field for the Broncos but this does not worry me given the fact that Sanders racked up 11 receptions for 149 yards in Week 3.  I love the Broncos at home this week coming off a bye and Sanders just so happens to be their cheapest priced WR of the bunch.

Kelvin Benjamin/Panthers/$4,800: This has to be a typo no? Benjamin’s price has dropped $1,000 this week after putting up 5/56/1 in Week 4.  Speaking of touchdowns, Benjamin has scored in 3 out of 4 games this season while catching at least 5 passes in the same 3 contests.  Combine these number with a good match up, Benjamin should have no problem hitting value this weekend.

Tight Ends:

Jimmy Graham/Saints/$7,600: This looks a lot like last week doesn’t it? Graham’s price remains reasonable this week and the match up should not scare you off.  Graham had a slow first half last week but Brees connected with his tight end 7 times for 1 TD during the 2nd half.  There is plenty of value to be had this week at TE but if you’re paying up, Graham as always should be your man.

Julius Thomas/Broncos/$6,900: I mentioned above that I love all Broncos this week and Thomas is no exception.  Thomas is a red zone monster so far this season finding the end zone in each of the first three weeks.  The Cardinals have been venerable defending the tight end giving up the most points over the last couple of years to the position.

Travis Kelce/Chiefs/$3,000: The match up on Kelce is not great but his price is as good as it gets.  Kelce proved on Monday night that he is valuable and a major part of the Chiefs offense.  Don’t expect a monster game this week but Kelce being minimum value, I will be rostering him in a few lineups in Week 5.

Defense:

Steelers/$3,500

San Diego/$3,100

Cleveland/$2,700

5 Tips to win your One-and-Done Fantasy Golf League

With the 2013-14 fantasy golf season in the books, it’s time to start looking ahead to next season. Unlike other big-time sports leagues, the off-season for golf is a rather short one. The PGA TOUR season just ended last week in Atlanta at the TOUR Championship, but will start right back up after a three-week break. Plenty of time for rest, the Ryder Cup, and then some more rest. That’s all we will mention about the disappointing Ryder Cup performance this weekend by the American squad.

Before we look ahead, we need to look to the past. After all, history often repeats itself, and can be a great way to improve your fantasy golf skills. This last year, I played in my first competitive One-and-Done league ever. Crazy, right? I’ve done Yahoo! golf for a while and dove right into the daily fantasy golf (DFS) when that became available, but had never really tested my hand at OAD.

I learned a lot in one year, and I’m hear to tell you about the rookie mistakes I made, so you don’t have to make the same mistakes. I’ve summed it up into five tips. Here they are:

1. Form over Course unless it’s a Horse

This is a motto I’ve started to live by since mid-season last year when I came up with it. It will soon be trademarked, so use the phrase wisely. Just kidding, but seriously. This saying became solidified into my vocabulary after I did a 10-week study on season form vs. recent form vs. course history. The results are shown below (one week didn’t make the chart but the results were similar). What you see in the chart below are rankings of the top 5 golfers in the field based on each category. The boxes that are filled in green are the best. As you can see season form was #1 in five of the nine weeks. It was actually six of 10 weeks, but I was transitioning to a new computer the last week and forgot to come back and track it.

Basically, going with recent form is the recipe for disaster. Using this method, you will end up with guys like William McGirt, Brendan Steele, Michael Putnam, etc. These guys will have a good week or two when the course is right or they get in a groove, but they will inevitably falter if you hop on the train after a few good weeks. Stick with long-term success, or true skill, if you will. Class is permanent.

Note: For tournaments with rotating courses, I used tournament history rather than course history. These were actually two of course history’s three weeks at #1 in money earned. Turns out that having experience at a venue really doesn’t mean all that much in most situations. Obviously, the exceptions are the course horses.

2. Stick to the Studs

Sticking with the theme of rule #1, don’t get too carried away with the “hot golfer” or the “golfer in top form.” These golfers will let you down, time and time again. A good rule of thumb is to stick with golfers inside the OWGR Top 50.

This rule is best used in conjunction with rule #1. Stick with golfers inside the top 50 who are also in good form over the past few months.

Then looking ahead to rules three through five, stick to tournaments where golfers have some history. Sample size is our friend. Patrick Reed may have won the Wyndham his second time playing the event, but that doesn’t mean he’s a course horse. In fact, the weather was pretty poor that week, and led to conditions that likely won’t be repeated from year-to-year at the event. In the end, Reed may end up being a course horse at Sedgefield CC, but it’s way too early to speculate that.

Using the same event as an example in 2014, you could have seen that Webb Simpson had finished 22nd or better in each of the past four years. A two tournament sample size from Reed or five years with Webb? Webb wins out, and went on to finish the week in 5th place.

3. Build a Gameplan

Look ahead and establish a few key tournaments where you know you want to use a specific golfer. This could be just a few major tournaments, or you could elaborate, and build out a blueprint for the entire season. It all depends on how serious you want to get about this. Let’s go through an example below using Zach Johnson.

ZJ has an expected finish inside the top 20 for quite a few tournaments. The first is the Hyundai ToC, but that’s such a small field, it’s a good time to take a chance on a flier since you’re guaranteed a decent paycheck. Let’s skip that. Next we see the Humana Challenge where he’s finished 3rd-23rd-8th over the past three years. That’s solid, and we could use him there if we get in a pinch, but the three tournament sample size is not favorable. After that, we wait awhile until the Crowne Plaza Invitational. This is one of ZJ’s top events, his finishes since 2009 are as follows: 73rd-3rd-1st-4th-1st-9th. Five top 10s in the last six years, sign me up.

Let’s circle ZJ for the Crowne. If something happens and ZJ has to W/D from the Crowne or something crazy like that, fear not because we also know his next best tournament is the John Deere Classic where he’s finished on the podium in five of the past six years. You could argue that JD Classic is the place to play him. Either way, we now have a game plan, and know where we want to pick Zach Johnson. This is a simple exercise that can be done with some of the top players, and it will really make your selections easier as the season rolls along. ZJ was an easy case study since the Crowne and John Deere Classic are two of the obvious stand-outs.

4. Deviate from the Gameplan

Now that you’ve set up a blueprint for success, don’t be afraid to deviate from it. Have you been planning on using Justin Rose for the U.S. Open all season but then when the U.S. Open rolls around Justin Rose has missed six straight cuts and appears lost on the course? This is an extreme example, but not entirely far-fetched. A lot can change in one golf season, so don’t be afraid to evolve and go with the flow of the season.

The gameplan you build is designed to give you some organization and prevent anarchy. It’s not an end-all and be-all solution. If you want to be a huge nerd and go over the top, list out some backup plans when you build your initial OAD blueprint. Example: Say you want to use Dustin Johnson at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am but he’s way out of form, W/Ds the week before, or finds himself suspended for drug-use. If you built in a backup plan, you would know the FedEx St. Jude Classic and The Open Championship could be two other tournaments to use him at. Save him for one of those events, and revise the plan.

5. Don’t Panic

I could have gone the corny route here, and said “Have Fun!” and trust me, I almost did that. Instead, I chose a fifth tip that could actually benefit you join the One-and-Done circuits.

When you go through an unlucky stretch and find yourself slumping, don’t hit the panic button. I know it’s tempting when you find yourself $2 million back from first-place, but it’s a long season. One common mistake is to start shooting for home run picks in this situation, but that will just put you farther in the hole.

I know from experience. Last year, in my rookie OAD campaign, I picked some questionable picks during the Fall Series and found myself in a hole. It’s not a fun place to be, and you feel like you need to hit a home run pick every week to catch back up. Instead, it’s wise to keep chipping away at the lead with top-tier picks week after week. All it takes is one good week to turn the tide in your direction.

FanDuel FFFC Qualifier: A Rookie Experience – Week 4

That was a rough week, I am looking to put last week behind me and looking forward to a brand new week and a brand new team. This is the beauty of one-week fantasy teams, you get to scrap them and start over every week.

I was not able to do my normal research when selecting for Week 3 as I had to select my lineup via phone. The app was very easy to use and set my lineup, the only issue I found was in the internet reception on my phone wasn’t that good which didn’t help me on the research of stats and such I usually take some time to do.

I like to utilize rule number 76 “No excuses, play like a champion” from The Wedding Crashers so I am going to suck it up and move forward. Here are a couple of key picks from my terrible Week 3 lineup:

D: Houston Texans @ New York Giants Cost: $5,200 Points: 2

An uninspiring performance by my defense once again left me wanting more. I am going to put a lot of stock into the defenses I pick from now on, seems to be my deal breaker on how I do. This one I should have seen coming. The Texans were due for a rough game, and Eli Manning was due for a good one, he was bound to have one sooner or later. The Texans made Rashad Jennings look like a star.

RB: Darren Sproles vs Washington Redskins Cost: $6,000 Points: 4.5

Darren Sproles was a member of the higher scoring team in the highest scoring game in the NFL in Week 3, and couldn’t manage to break the illusive 5-point mark. This pick was highly disappointing; I figured he would get involved, I remained confident going into the second half of this shootout but his name just never got called.

QB: Kirk Cousins @ Philadelphia Eagles Cost: $6,800 Points: 28.58

This was a bright spot on my otherwise awful lineup. He did exactly what I expected him to do and cut up a weak Philadelphia passing defense for over 400 passing yards and 3 TDs.

Going into Week 4 I plan on getting back to my normal amount of research as I am back to my normal day-to-day. I am going to put a focus on the defense that I select this week as that seems to be the death of me lately.

Week 4 Team:
QB: Colin Kaepernick vs Philadelphia Eagles Cost: $8,100

The Eagles are starting their season much like their season ended last year, near the bottom of the league defending the pass. They have allowed 8 TD passes in 3 games and have only sacked the QB 3 times over that same three game span. Kaepernick has yet to break over 300 yards passing this season but this could be his game to accomplish this feat.

RB: Reggie Bush @ New York Jets Cost: $7,400

The Jets are a tough team against the run, so I am counting on Reggie’s receiving game a lot in this one. I took advantage of some players that were on the cheap so I am going with Reggie despite the matchup due to the fact that he is always liable for a big game no matter the opponent.

RB: Donald Brown vs Jacksonville Jaguars Cost: $6,300

Donald Brown does not ooze talent, however, for the price it hard to pass up on the workload he will be receiving in Week 4. Brown is the starter while Ryan Matthews is down and Brown couldn’t have a better matchup. The Jaguars average allowing 160 yards on the ground and have surrendered 4 rushing TDs through three weeks. He only averaged 2 yards per carry against the Bills, but the Jaguars defense is far worse than the Bills. Brown should be a steal for $6,300.

WR: Brandon Marshall vs Green Bay Packers Cost: $8,500

Marshall had a no-show on the stat sheet against the Jets as Jay Cutler spread the ball around after throwing him 3 TDs a week previous. Marshall should get plenty of action against their rival, the Green Bay Packers, who have been very vulnerable on defense. The tackling of the Packers has been very suspect and Marshall is a tough guy to bring down so I see him succeeding this week.

WR: Anquan Boldin vs Philadelphia Eagles Cost: $6,100

Boldin has had a couple of down weeks after a promising Week 1 with 8 catches and 99 yards. I think he will find space against the Eagles defense that has conceded to all opposing pass catchers they have faced. The QB and WR hook up picks are risky because if the offense struggles then you can get two duds, but if they hook up for a couple TDs then it works out great. I am hoping for the latter of those situations.

WR: Jeremy Maclin @ San Francisco 49ers Cost: $8,000

Maclin seems to have fallen into his role as the go to guy in a high flying passing offense and they need to keep flying in most games because the defense can’t stop anyone. The 49er’s defense is not the greatest matchup but he should be able to put up solid numbers and has the ability to get behind any defense.

TE: Jason Witten vs New Orleans Saints Cost: $5,900

The Saints are 4th worst in passing yards allowed. Jason Witten has the ability to put up way better numbers than he has been through the first three weeks of the 2014 season. The Cowboys have been sticking to the run lately and against the Saints passing attack going against a Cowboys defense that isn’t so good defending the pass may force them to go to the air to keep up. I am figuring that Witten will benefit from these circumstances.

K: Ryan Succop @ Indianapolis Colts Cost: $4,800

I didn’t really read too much into the kicker this week, knowing which kicker is going to kick four or five field goals isn’t very easy. Hope I picked the right guy this week.

D: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cost: $4,900

The Steelers just had a solid game defensively at the Carolina Panthers who have been other than last week a decent team offensively. The matchup against the Buccaneers who have been managing 15 points a game on average bodes well for them. Another positive note is the game against the Panthers was an away game and they return home for this mouthwatering matchup. The Bucs also don a -4 turnover ratio so that could help the Steelers as well.

I feel a lot better about my team this week as opposed to last. The picks I regret the most from my rough week are the boom-or-bust running backs I picked. Both C.J. Spiller and Darren Sproles rely on big plays on limited touches to put up their numbers. I feel like my team has a good mix here, the only thing that I feel is missing is a Denver Bronco, they are enjoying an early bye week this week.

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The DraftKings Huddle: Week 4 Plays

Week 3 is in the books and I hope you guys got on board with my picks as we hit on many of them.  Week 4 is the start of the “bye weeks” – Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle, and St. Louis will not be taking the field this weekend.  DraftKings will once again offer the Sunday Million’s tournament with a $27 entry paying out $100,000 to 1st.  If you’re on a limited bankroll, I would suggest saving money for next week as DraftKings will offer a $27 tourney with $1,000,000 going to 1st place.   Let’s jump right into my picks for Week 4:

Quarterback:

Drew Brees/Saints/$9,300:

I hate putting Brees here again for the second week in a row but I have to.   Brees put up 22 fantasy points last week but owners were hoping for much more.  This week very well could be the week he fills the stat sheet as the Saints travel to Dallas to face a bad Cowboys defense.  His road splits are somewhat of a concern but if we look at the last time he played in Dallas back in 2012, Brees put up 446 yards and 3 TD’s.  If you’re paying up for QB this week, Brees should be your man.

Matthew Stafford/Lions/$8,000: Stafford was terrible last week yet somehow the Lions managed to beat the Packers.  This week Stafford has a great match up vs. the Jets and I’m pretty happy that DraftKings has dropped his price tag down to $8,000 (Week 1 he was $9k).   Expect a bounce-back game from Stafford and be sure to take advantage of his price because I don’t think we will see it this low the rest of the season.   Just an FYI, mid-tier QB’s are interesting this week.  Foles has a good match up but will be travelling across the country.  I also like Rivers but he too has had an interesting travel schedule to open the season.

Tom Brady/Patriots/$6,300: Look at this price…wow!  Brady’s price tag is warranted but don’t sleep on his Monday night stats.  Brady is tied with Steve Young for third all time for TD’s throw on Monday night football with 42; the Patriots are also 13-5 with Brady under center on MNF.  Proceed with caution as the Pats offense does look suspect thus far but when Brady is priced the same as Michael Vick, it’s hard to not take a long hard look at him.

Running Back:

Matt Forte/Bears/$7,800: Forte was unimpressive this past Monday night but that doesn’t really concern me.  Forte is still on the field for the majority of the game and things should turn around this week vs. a Packers defense that has given up the 5th most fantasy points to Running Backs.  Keep in mind that DraftKings is a full point per reception and Forte has racked up 19 catches through the first three weeks of the season.

Le’Veon Bell/Steelers/$7,400: This is a week where you will either need to spend up on stud running backs or bump down and go to value town.  Looking through the mid-tier running backs on DraftKings is like navigating a minefield as so many of them are injured.  Bell has been one of the most consistent running backs this season recording 461 yards thus far.  It’s also worth noting that Bell and the Steelers meet the same Bucs defense that got steam rolled for 3 rushing TD’s last week.

Donald Brown/Chargers/$5,400: Thanks to a Danny Woodhead season ending injury and Ryan Mathews sidelined with his own injury, Brown by default is the lone wolf in the Chargers background.   The Charger head back home this week to face off against a terrible Jaguar defense that has given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season.  Other RB’s to consider on the value side: Lamar Miller, Fred Jackson & Steven Ridley.

Wide Receiver:

Calvin Johnson/Lions/$8,500: Megatron did not find the end zone in Week 3 but that will change this week when he faces the Jets secondary.  Through three week, the Jets have given up the 3rd most fantasy point to WR’s and have surrendered at least 2 passing TD’s in each of those contests.  If you have the salary to pay up for Johnson, I think he will reward you with one of the best WR performances of the week.

Jeremy Maclin/Eagles/$6,300: Maclin has been a stud so far this season racking up 16 total receptions.  To go along with this consistent production, Maclin has also snagged a TD in each of the first 3 games this season.  The Eagles match up doesn’t scare me as they host a 49ers defense that is giving up the 4th most fantasy points to WR’s this season.  It’s also worth noting here that Vegas as this match up as the second highest over/under on the board this week.

Markus Wheaton/Steelers/$4,200: Wheaton is strictly a GPP recommendation this week as production has been a bit inconsistent thus far.  Having said this, the Steelers draw a great match up this week vs. a Buccaneer’s team giving up the most fantasy points to WR’s through three weeks.  At this price, I can easily see Wheaton hitting value and there’s a good chance at him finding the end zone come Sunday.

Tight End:

Jimmy Graham/Saints/$7,600: Graham’s price tag dropped a bit this week and it’s hard to fade at $7,600 IMO.  Load him up in all cash games and feel confident using him in GPP’s should you wish to pay up for TE’s this week.

Delanie Walker/Titans/$4,900: Walker didn’t find the end zone in week 3 but has a fantastic match up this week vs. a bad Colts defense.  Walker has 2 TD’s this season and is clearly a favorite for Quarterback Jake Locker as he’s racked up 17 receptions through three weeks to open up the 2014 season.

Travis Kelce/Chiefs/$3,700: Kelce’s production has grown in each of the first three weeks of the season.  This week the Chiefs meet the Patriots on Monday night who were historically bad last year against the TE.  The Pats this year however are giving up very little to the TE slot but Kelce is worth a look in most GPP lineups given his cheap price tag.

Defense:

San Diego Chargers/$3,100

Miami Dolphins/$3,100

Chicago Bears/$2,900

FanDuel FFFC Week 3: Beginner’s Luck

In Week 2 we learned how important picking the right defense can be. On FanDuel we saw Buffalo, New England, Arizona, Washington, and Baltimore all score 15 or more FanDuel Points. When you play 1-week fantasy football, it’s just something you want to get right.

Last week, I chose the Green Bay Packers defense for my FFFC squad. It was a highly volatile pick that could have joined the 15+ club if the game flow went slightly different. However, it wasn’t meant to be, and they scored a measly 4 FanDuel Points. That didn’t get it done, but it’s on to the next week, the beauty of daily fantasy football.

For Week 3, I am away from a computer for the entire week. Rather than skip the FFFC challenge, I decided to download the FanDuel iOS app. It was remarkably easy to put together my team for this week from my iPhone. Let’s see what team I ended up with ultimately and how I got there:

Week 3 Team:
QB: Kirk Cousins vs Philadelphia Eagles – Cost: $6,800

Cousins looked solid last week in his fill-in duties for RG3. Could put a hurting on the Eagles as they face off in this division battle with the Eagles on a short week.

RB: Darren Sproles 6,000 vs Washington Redskins – Cost: $6,000

He is a steal at 6,000. Chip Kelly is feeding him the rock whenever he gets his snaps in. His touches are relatively low, averaging just 13 through two games, which makes this a boom-or-bust pick, but he’s making the most of those touches. Should be able to continue against Washington.

RB: C.J. Spiller vs San Diego Chargers – Cost: $7,900

The Bills are on a roll and their offense has shown some signs of clicking. This could be the week when their offense gets in full gear. The explosiveness of this RB duo gives up a high ceiling, but a lot of room for letdown as well.

WR: Andre Johnson @ New York Giants – Cost: $7,100

Johnson is a beast but doesn’t have the most talented passer throwing him the ball. He still manages to put up some numbers and with this talent at this price I believe he can outplay it. His targets are consistently there, it’s just a matter of getting into the end zone.

WR: Julian Edelman vs Oakland Raiders – Cost: $6,900

Tom Brady hasn’t been his usual self lately but will have a decent week against the Raiders. Even with down weeks Edelman has gotten plenty of targets. This is a low-floor play that allowed us to take a chance on some boom-or-bust running backs.

WR: Demaryius Thomas @ Seattle Seahawks – Cost: $8,700

I’m not convinced that Demaryius was done making up for Week 1 drops. I think he will put up big numbers despite the tough matchup and the “shutdown corner” Sherman. With revenge on their mind, the Broncos should have their foot on the gas and never let up.

TE: Greg Olsen vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Cost: $6,100

Olsen is being consistently targeted whether or not Cam Newton is playing. TEs with this many targets are worth more than $6,100.

K: Randy Bullock vs San Diego Chargers – Cost: $5,300

The Bills seem to sputter out offensively once they cross the 35 yard line of their opponents. The lack of firepower in the passing attack leaves them lacking a go-to guy in the red zone. It gives Carpenter plenty of opportunities.

D: Houston Texans @ New York Giants – Cost: $5,200

I found out the importance of picking the right defense last week, as I was almost locked out of cashing due to a poor performance when there were a lot of great performances. This week the Texans are a steal for the potential here. The Texans defense is looking strong this season and Eli is looking a bit rough just like last year.

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Try your hand at the $10 FFFC Qualifier

The DraftKings Huddle: Week 3 Plays

Overall, my picks last week did pretty good.  We hit on most of the WR plays but I continue to search for that QB lock of the week.  I hope you guys jumped on the Jordy train last week and were able to squeeze in a couple line ups with Sanu. 

Enough about last week, lets jump into this week but with a slightly different format.  I’ll be providing three players at each position in a salary-tier structure: High, Mid, and Low.  Keep in mind that DraftKings is once again hosting their Sunday Million tournament with a $27 entry paying out $100,000 to 1st.

Top Dollar:

QB/Drew Brees/Saints/$8,900: This week DrafKings has priced the top six QB’s all within $1,000 of each other.  At this point, I think its well documented the struggles Brees has outdoors on the road vs at home.  Luckily for us, Brees has a home game this week against the Vikings.  Through the first two weeks of the season, the Vikings are surprisingly giving up the least amount of points to opposing QB’s.  Have no fear though, Brees is at home this week and will be without RB Mark Ingram.  Vegas has the game at a 51 O/U and I expect the Saints to come out firing after starting their 2014 season 0-2.

RB/DeMarco Murray/Cowboys/$7,900: Top tier RB’s this week will be tough to predict as the majority have tough match-ups and have been inconsistent thus far.  I’m going with Murray this week for a couple of reasons: First, he’s been a workhouse tallying 51 rushing attempts through the two games.  Second is his match-up vs a vulnerable Rams defense that gave over 150 yard on the ground last week to the Bucs.

WR/Calvin Johnson/Lions/$8,900: Johnson is off to a strong 2014 campaign racking up 13 receptions and 2 TD’s so far.  Johnson was seconds from securing his 3rd TD of the season this past week but due to a great defensive play, the ball was stripped from him as he tried to secure a pass from his QB Matt Stafford.  Johnson has been consistent this year and I see no reason why the red zone targets won’t continue this week as Vegas set the O/U at 52.  Can you say shoot out?

TE/Jimmy Graham/Saints/$8,000: Graham is in a tier of his own this week when it comes to TE’s.  DraftKings is making your decision easy this week, either pay up for Graham or bump down to $6,000 range for the next closest TE.  Graham is expensive but through two weeks no one can stop him as he’s tallied 18 catches and two TD’s.  As I mentioned above with Brees, Vegas has this game with a high O/U and the Saint’s 9.5 point favorites.

Mid Priced:

QB/Kurt Cousins/Redskins/$7,300: There’s been a lot of talk this week about Cousins being the permanent QB in Washington even if RG3 returns from his injury this season.  Cousins performed well last week putting up a solid 250 yards and 2 TD’s and I think he needs to continue to impress in order to earn the job.  Cousins is a bit over priced this week but it’s a week where you need to either pay up for a QB or role the dice with your mid and low tier options.

RB/Knile Davis/Chiefs./$6,200: IF Jaamal Charles is ruled out this week, load up on shares of Knile Davis.  Knile stepped in last week after Charles went down with a high ankle sprain to rack up 79 yards and 2 TD’s from the ground.  He added an impressive 6 receptions for an additional 26 yards. Coach Andy Reid has stated that the game plan will not change if Charles remains sidelined this week.  Keep an eye on the situation throughout the weekend.

WR/Julian Edelman/Patriots/$6,000: No one can predict how the Patriots backfield will shake out this week but one thing is for sure, Edelman is a PPR monster.  Tom Brady’s favorite target has had 6 receptions in each of their first two games.  You’ll have to go back to November of last year to find a game where Eldelman didn’t have at least 6 receptions…that’s Antonio Brown like consistency.  Eldelman is a safe cash play week to week but his lack of TD’s really hurt his upside in gpp formats.

TE/Greg Olsen/Panthers/$5,600: Olsen has been Cam Newton’s favorite target this season.  Panthers’ QBs have connected with Olsen 14 times and a TD through the first two games.  This week the Panthers are at home vs a suspect Steelers defense that game up 2 TD’s last week to Owen Daniels.

Bargain Bin:

QB/Ryan Tannehill/Dolphins/$6,300: Tannehill is back in Miami this week vs a Chiefs defense that has given up the 3rd most fantasy point to QB’s this season.  I think Tannehill has pretty limited upside but in a week where value QB’s are hard to come by, Tannehill looks to be your “safest” option. Other options to consider if you plan on going cheap at QB this week: Brian Hoyer, Matt Cassel or Ryan Fitzpatrick.

RB/Joique Bell/Lions/$5,400: I’m not going to lie, this week the RB position scares me.  Through the first two weeks of the season, we’ve seen multiple running backs go down with injuries.  The good thing for us is that this is daily fantasy and we can choose someone new each week. Lets get back to Bell for a minute.  Bell splits time in the backfield with Reggie Bush but so far this hasn’t effected production.  This week the Lions face the high powered Packers offense and points will be scored.  Bell should benefit not only in the passing game but also on the ground.  The Packers defense gave up 207 yards in week 1 and 146 this past week so expect the Lions to exploits this.

WR/Malcom Floyd/Chargers/$3,000: Looking through the WR pool on Draftkings this week I was pretty surprised to see Floyd at minimum salary.  Yes he did put up a goose egg last week but the Chargers faced an excellent Seahawks defense.  Week 1 Floyd had a solid game catching 4 balls for 50 yards and a TD.  I can easily see Floyd putting up that stat line this week against a Bills defense that has given up the 5th most fantasy points to WR’s this season.

TE/Jason Witten/Cowboys/$3,900: Will this be the week we see Witten finally find the end zone? The match-up isn’t great but we continue to see a great price for one of the better TE’s in the league.  Vegas has this game at a 45 O/U and a pick em so we have to expect some points will be scored on both sides.  Witten is strictly a GPP play at this point.

Defenses:

Patriots/$3,500

Texans/$3,400

Colts/$3,200