Josh Culp's Blog, page 48

Defensively Stout AFC North Projections

The AFC North is known for their defense, and rightfully so. It seems like no matter which of these teams the opposition is put against they have to earn every yard they get.

The lowest team in the 2013 season for yards allowed in the AFC North was the Pittsburgh Steelers at 13th in the NFL. Even as some who is not a big fan of any team in the AFC North, I catch myself watching AFC North division rivalry games on the edge of my seat because they always have close, hard-fought, hard-hitting defensive battles which are fun games to watch.

It is nice to see solid defense in a league that is transitioning to offense taking all the headlines. This one is the Bengals division to lose; they had the best offense and defense in the AFC North in 2013 and are well set up to continue that trend.

Cincinnati Bengals 2014 Projection: 11-5
2013 Record: 11-5

There are not too many moving parts for the Cincinnati Bengals going into the 2014 season. They have many young players that have another year under their belt; therefore, I believe they can step it up a notch this season. Other than their matchups against the rest of the AFC North where they split it down the middle last season at 3-3, they have some tough foes this season with a trip to New England, New Orleans, and then Denver flies into town so I don’t see their record rising this season.

A.J Green will continue to put up gaudy numbers (96 Rec. 1,426 Yards, 11TD in 2013) as per usual and their defense should be able to persist with their stout ways allowing 305 points last season which is good for 5th in the NFL.

The running game should be improved as the Bengals coaching staff seems to be more interested in Giovani Bernard who averaged 4.1 yards per carry (as a rookie) as the starter rather than Benjarvus Green-Ellis who averaged 3.4 yet continued to start and take more carries in the 2013 season.

X-Factor – Andy Dalton signed a big contract going into this season and it is time to earn it. He has been improving his statistics each year since his rookie season and he needs to continue that trend in order to make it to excel his Bengals to the next level. His performance in the playoffs has been pretty terrible in their 3 one-and-done playoff runs the last 3 years, they can play with just about anyone if Dalton can use the experience he has gotten to his advantage this season.

Baltimore Ravens 2014 Projection: 10-6
2013 Record: 8-8

Last season the Ravens were 29th in yards per game offensively and their defense still managed to be 12th in the league in yards allowed. Those stats are very telling of a weak offense and a strong defense, so they needed to improve so they went out and grabbed a veteran wide receiver in Steve Smith. How this acquisition will work out for them remains to be seen, however, it looks promising and I see it as a perfect match. They still have a playoff-caliber defense and Steve Smith still has some oomph left in the tank at 35 years old. This has potential to improve the passing game and open up the running game for Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce to see some daylight now and again.

X-Factor – Ray Rice needs to step his game up. He is coming off of a career-low paltry 3.1 yards per carry in 2013. I know that their passing game was lacking and the line could have done him more favors but most of the great running backs have had some years of lacking support and didn’t put up 3.1 yards per carry. Adrian Peterson has been doing it most every year since he joined the league so there is no excuse for Ray Rice. If Ray Rice gets it together this season then the Ravens are going to be soaring into the playoffs with ease. Rice certainly didn’t do his public image or his team any favors by being indicted with assault charges from an altercation with his fiancée in the offseason; he is suspended for the first 2 games of the 2014 season.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2014 Projection: 6-10
2013 Record: 8-8

The Steelers were average last season and they didn’t do a whole lot to their team to excel them beyond average, if anything, they downgraded. They lost Emmanuel Sanders who accounted for 67 receptions and 740 of their 4,290 receiving yards in their 2013 season. They also lost Jerricho Cotchery, a very effective red zone target for Ben Roethlisberger, he was on the receiving end of 10 out of the 28 Steelers passing touchdowns in 2013. That is some sizable production they lost there and their replacements aren’t quite the same caliber.

They went out and got Darrius Heyward-Bey and Lance Moore out of the free agency. Heyward-Bey, a former 1st round bust for the Oakland Raiders has never really risen to the level of anything better than a 3rd or 4th wide receiver. Lance Moore has had a few solid years with New Orleans, but that is more a product of Drew Brees’s prolific passing than it is of Lance Moore, and on top of that Moore has struggled to stay healthy, as well as hitting the wrong side of 30.

X-Factor – Le’Veon Bell: ran for 3.5 yards per carry in 2013, the Steelers can chalk that up to a rookie going through growing pains. It is going to get more difficult this season due to the fact that their passing game should be taking a step backwards. Bell needs to fight through some stacked lines and find his way if the Steelers are going to break out of mediocrity in the 2014 season.

Cleveland Browns – 2014 Projection: 4-12
2013 Record: 4-12

Consistent quarterback play has been the downfall of the Cleveland Browns since they were reinstated into the league and drafted one of the biggest #1 draft pick flops of all time, Tim Couch in 1999. Couch’s best accomplishment in his time in the NFL was marrying Heather Kozar, who was playmate of the year in 1999. The Browns have had 20 different quarterbacks start at least one game between the 1999 and 2013 seasons; this is the most in the NFL over that time-frame. To give some prospective, the New England Patriots have had three different quarterbacks start at least one game over the same span.

No big surprise here, another season, another first round quarterback, this time it is Johny Manziel. Time will tell as with all quarterbacks it seems to be a crap shoot on how well they translate into the NFL so this will be a wait and see how it goes. Regardless, there will be growing pains, so even if he is the next big thing, this season isn’t going to net a lot of wins for the Browns. It certainly doesn’t help his cause that arguably the best wide receiver last season in Josh Gordon most likely will be missing the entire 2014 campaign for failing a drug test for the second time for marijuana. I don’t understand how marijuana is chosen over competing at the highest level, but he isn’t the first to have this kind of fate.

X-Factor – Jordan Cameron was 2nd in receptions with 80 in 2013 for the Browns, a solid number for a TE. He will certainly be the security blanket for Manziel or Hoyer, whoever ends up being the signal caller for the Browns. If Cameron continues to grow and become a star then the Browns may increase their wins total up to a couple above 4.

Many players, coaches, and even Roger Goodell have taken part in the ALS ice-bucket challenge. There has been a lot of hate toward this movement, stating that pouring the water is a cop out to not donate, but at the end of the day it has been reported that this phenomenon has raised 10 million dollars as of August 16th for ALS Awareness and research. I got to take part in this challenge due to my lovely Fiancée, can’t say no to a good cause, or to my lovely lady, not if I know what is good for me. The video is on my twitter, I challenged my future mother-in-law, future brother-in-law, and a buddy of mine that I work with. I figured that I had to get in good with the future in laws somehow.

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The Underachieving AFC East Predictions

I found my way back to writing about football after a long hiatus. I am glad to have the opportunity to write these articles again, it is something I am passionate about. Thanks to Josh Culp for giving me this opportunity.

We will get started with the underachieving AFC East, and I will make my rounds to the rest of the NFL in days to come. The AFC East has been won by the New England Patriots 10 out of the last 11 years. In my opinion, it is due more to the weak competition than the Patriots being that dominant of a team. In many other divisions around the NFL, the Patriots could find themselves out of the playoffs many of those years. The Bills made some moves and could be looking a lot more solid this season. The Jets are set up to disappoint yet again with a solid run game, solid defense, and terrible pass offense that they are notorious for. The Dolphins look to improve their 8-8 record and move on from their off-field issues in 2013.

New England Patriots – 2014 Projection: 12-4
2013 Record: 12-4

They have potential for a drop off, but the rest of the AFC East most likely will allow them to take the division with ease as per usual. I don’t think the moves they made in the offseason are going to bring them out of the ranks of a low end contender. Darrelle Revis will help bolster the team’s defense that allowed 371.3 yards per game, good for 26th in the NFL. When playing offenses that placed 19th (Buffalo Bills), 25th (New York Jets), and 27th (Miami Dolphins) in total offensive yards per game 2 times a piece last year that is a pretty daunting statistic. While the “Revis Island” effect may help their cause, I don’t believe that it has potential to completely turn around a mediocre defense.

They also failed to find a solid go to wide receiver for Brady to work with. If they turn up the usual 12-4 record, it is because the usual suspects of the AFC East failed to capitalize on their opportunity to unseat the Patriots for the first time since 08 when the Dolphins had a tie breaker over them at 11-5.

X-Factor – Rob Gronkowski can make or break the Patriots this season. There is no question about his talent, his hands, his size (6’6, 265 lbs) and his ability to wreak havoc, especially in the end zone. The only question is whether or not he can stay healthy; he has missed 14 games in the past 2 seasons and has had more surgeries than most at the age of 25.

Miami Dolphins – 2014 Projection: 10-6
2013 Record: 8-8

The biggest problems for the Dolphins in the 2013 season were distractions which dissipate with time, and their running game which they addressed with the pickup of Knowshon Moreno. They seem to have tossed aside all the names involved in the bullying scandal from 2013 and also addressed a hole at the cornerback position with Cortland Finnegan who may collect a few fines for his level of physicality and intensity, but there is no doubt that he is effective at his position. With Brent Grimes experience and talent starting opposite Finnegan, they should be able to shut down most of the passing games that they face, or at least slow them down a lot. Their offense has plenty of weapons and can have a breakout year this year if the line can hold up. Their offensive line has changed a lot and will have a lot to do with their success or demise.

X-Factor – Brandon Albert was a first time Pro Bowler after paving the way for Jamaal Charles’ 1980 all-purpose yards in 2013. He is a big piece in the offensive line overhaul created by the bullying scandal. Albert can pave the way for the Dolphins and shore up this offensive line that was plagued with holes, they allowed 58 sacks, dead last in the NFL. They have a lot of room for improvement and it starts with Brandon Albert.

Buffalo Bills – 2014 Projection: 9-7
2013 Record: 6-10

The Bills had one of their better drafts in quite a few years; they addressed their issues in the draft as well as the free agency. A couple of their notable acquisitions include Mike Williams (WR) and Brandon Spikes (LB). Mike Williams gives another much needed weapon for E.J Manuel, who if he remains healthy certainly has the potential to have a solid year. Sammy Watkins is making crazy one-handed grabs look routine during training camp and practices, he is also crazy fast running a 4.34 40-yard dash. With those two additions on top of C.J. Spiller, who has proven to be a very deadly weapon even without the supporting cast to do that the Bills offense has a lot of potential for growth this season.

The Bills were 2nd in the league with 57 sacks, and 2nd in interceptions with 23, however, their run defense struggled. They were 28th in the league allowing 128.9 yards rushing per game; this is where the Brandon Spikes acquisition could pay some serious dividends with some sure tackling in the middle of the field. Injury to Kiko Alonso will certainly be felt but this defense can still be solid for 2014.

X-Factor – Sammy Watkins: Typically rookie wide receivers do not put up gaudy numbers statistically. I am not saying that Watkins will, but the Bills will need him to make some big plays in crucial moments of games this year to bring them into contention in the AFC East. They utilized the 4th overall pick on Watkins and will need him to be an immediate starter and impact player for them.

New York Jets – 2014 Projection: 5-11
2013 Record: 8-8

I believe this is the year that Rex Ryan finds his imminent doom. After sticking by Sanchez for entirely too long they continue to have no passing game in a game dominated by the pass. They have not posted more than 8 wins since the 2010 season and aren’t poised to this year. The pickup of Chris Johnson should help a team that averaged 18.1 points per game in 2013, but not as much as people might think. Johnson will be turning 29 as the season begins and not too many backs maintain their production as they approach 30. His production hasn’t been what it used to be and the supporting cast is just as questionable as his last few seasons with Tennessee.

The acquisition of Eric Decker would be a lot nicer if there were any names to back it up bigger than Jacoby Ford and David Nelson. If you asked who these guys are, I am sure you are not alone. I am a big Eric Decker fan, but this stint with the Jets won’t be pretty. He joins a team that had the 31st ranked team in passing yards, 183.2 per game and 13 TDS passing which was good for 32nd. If they put Vick in there it may patch the hole for a little while but ultimately they don’t have enough weapons for an aging Vick to be putting up much in the way of numbers.

X-Factor – Muhammed Wilkerson has his sack count increasing on a year-to-year basis and is a nightmare against the run as well. In general, the defense needs to be phenomenal in order for their record even reach 8-8 again. Pass rushers cause a lot of turnovers that don’t go on their stat sheets, Wilkerson had 10.5 sacks in 2013 and will continue to bring the pressure but needs to continue to improve to bring his team to the next level.

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24 Wide Receivers that will Breakout in 2014

Mock drafts are in full swing and most of our season long drafts are just around the corner. In my final article prior to my Daily Fantasy Football positional breakdowns, I thought it would be helpful to highlight a number of breakout wide receivers candidates for 2014. Below you’ll find three tiers. First are my best potential to breakout. The second tier contains my chance to breakout candidates. Finally the third tier contains my outside chance of a breakout season candidates in 2014. Happy drafting everyone!

Tier 1 (Best Potential for a Breakout Season)

Terrance Williams, Cowboys – We all know the cowboys will be playing from behind the majority of the season so expect plenty of Williams considering Miles Austin is now eliminated from the mix. Williams shined last season filling in for the injured Austin during weeks 4-10.

Keenan Allen, Chargers – I debated putting Allen on this list simply because he was just so good in the second half of the year in 2013. Allen racked up an impressive 71/1046/8 in his rookie season and I can’t imagine a scenario where he hits a sophomore slump in 2014.

Rueben Randle, Giants – Randle saw a good 2012 season but did see a drop off in production 2013. Having said this, I see Randle having a good breakout/bounce back season with new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Keep in mind Randle’s success is dependent on Eli Manning’s success.

Kenny Stills, Saints – The exit of both Lance Moore and Darren Sproles really opens the door for Kenny Stills to grow on the end of last season’s success. Cooks will be in the mix and is someone else to keep an eye on I think its safe to safe Stills is ready to make the jump into a legit Fantasy WR.

Jarrett Boykin, Packers – I was lucky enough to get on the Boykin’s train last season during his impressive run filling in an injured Randall Cobb. This year I think Boykin’s is in a great spot to thrive in the Packers offense considering the exit of James Jones.

Doug Baldwin, Seahawks – No doubt about it, Baldwin had a good 2013 season but he really became a household name during the playoffs posting 13/202/1 as WR3. The Seahawks locked up Baldwin in the off season to a long term deal so we should expect Baldwin to continue to be a factor in 2014.

Golden Tate, Lions – Fresh off a super bowl win, Tate makes a positive move (For Fantasy) to the Lions. Tate has seen his reception numbers grow from 21 his rookie year to 64 last year, his 4th season in the league. Now a member of the Lions pass-happy offense, I really like the potential Tate has in this offense. We all know Stafford isn’t afraid to sling the ball around so I really think Tate can see his numbers grow once again in 2014 with the Lions.

Tier 2 (Has Potential for a Breakout Season)

Kendall Wright, Titans – The arrival of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt will hopefully be a blessing for Titan receivers. Wright finished the 2013 season as WR30 and I expect him to improve on that in 2014 especially in PPR leagues. My main concern in Tennessee is the QB situation. Buyers beware.

Andrew Hawkins, Browns – Hawkins could benefit big in 2014 thanks to a likely suspension to teammate Josh Gordon. Hawkins has no shortage of competition with Miles Austin, Nate Burleson and Jordan Cameron all looking for the football. Reports are that Hawkins will be in the slot so expect him to get plenty of receptions regardless of the others on the field.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings – Had a pretty great rookie season so we again could technically say he broke out in 2013. Having said this, he wasn’t a week-to-week starter thus the majority of his success last season came from weeks 10 through 17. Patterson and the Vikings welcome new Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner who, as you may remember, was the Browns (Josh Gordon’s) OC last season. I have two concerns with Patterson this season: first is the fact that they still have him returning kicks and second is the Vikings QB situation.

Aaron Dobson, Patriots – Dobson finally returned to field this week. This comes after a longer than expected recovery from off season foot surgery where doctors placed a screw in his foot. Once Dobson gets back on the field he should be Tom Brady’s #2 WR, building on last season’s 37/519/4. The upside is there but as we all know Bill Belichick and the Patriots are very tricky to predict who will be fantasy relevant on a week-to-week basis.

Brandin Cooks, Saints – Has huge upside if he gets the opportunity. Will they use him as a slot guy to replace Lance Moore or will they utilize him to stretch the field and make big plays like Stills did last year. Cooks has an ADP of around 110 and that shows people are respecting his upside but it’s comes with risk. Its well documented he has been practicing with the second team to start this year’s camp. The next few weeks should be interesting to see where, if anywhere, they can fit him in.

Markus Wheaton, Steelers – He’s the man in Pittsburgh this year just one season after a nagging finger injury. He and Lance Moore worked out all off season together gaining good chemistry with one another. I like the potential for Wheaton (and Moore) with the veteran Roethlisberger under center.

Andre Holmes, Raiders – The former track star turned NFL WR, has show good chemistry with QB Matt Schaub, dating back to last season. Holmes connected for at least 58 yards in each of the last 5 games last season. The 6’4″ receiver should work opposite of Rod Streater and get plenty of opportunities.

Tier 3 (Outside Chance for a Breakout Season)

Justin Hunter, Titans – Pretty much the same situation as Kendall Wright but Hunter will be the deep threat making him a riskier pick than Wright. Not only do the Titian’s have a new Offensive Coordinator but they also have Shawn Jefferson as their WR coach that could influence these young talented WR’s.

Tiquan Underwood, Panthers – Moving from the Bucs to the Panthers should help Underwood considerably. Underwood has incredible speed and it’s no secret the Panthers are desperate for some WR’s.

Tavon Austin, Rams – I’ll be honest in that I’m not the biggest Tavon Austin fan thus he only makes my tier 3 (I can see how and why he potentially makes others Tier 2 or even Tier 1). He had easily one of the most disappointing rookie seasons for someone with such great potential. Reports out of Rams camp state they will make it a point to better utilize him in 2014.

DeAndre Hopkins, Texans – The talent is there for Hopkins and he showed some promise last season as a rookie finishing with 52/802/2. Andre Johnson is a big fan of him and has mentioned he’s ready and focused this year. My main concern is simply the Texans offense. Fitzpatrick is their starting QB (for now) and it’s a completely new offense this year. It wasn’t too long ago Hopkins was asking for a trade out of Houston so only time will tell how Hopkins develops in his sophomore season.

Mike Evans, Buccaneers – The 6’5″ rookie is stepping right to be the Bucs WR2. There is no question that Evans will be a tough guy to cover no matter where he is on the field but the latest reports state coach Lovie Smith using him in the slot. This is great news for PPR leagues considering Vincent Jackson should see plenty of coverage on the outside. I’m really excited to watch this rookie come September.

Sammy Watkins, Bills – Another rookie, Watkins is no doubt a stud that should be a superstar sometime in the near future. Having said this, will the Bills prevent him from breaking out? The Bills are a run-first offense and have EJ Manuel under center. We’ve seen Watkins make tremendous one handed catches this camp but will he be able to bail out Manuel against elite talent come Sundays? Lots a question marks heading into this season but no doubt the future looks bright for Watkins.

Brian Quick, Rams – Will this be Quick’s year? The highly talented, hyped Rams WR has been nothing short of disappointing with little playing time and even less production. Quick has great size and incredible work ethic and has had Terrell Owens as his mentor for the couple of years. With his reception totals only at 29 through his first two years, Quick has a lot to prove in his third season and I think he has an outside chance of being a legit breakout candidate in 2014.

Jeremy Kerley, Jets – Kerley looks to be the Jets WR2 this season primarily lining up in the slot. The new addition of Eric Decker should help this offense open up the passing game a bit more in 2014. My main concern is the fact that the Jets are loaded with below-average WR’s…will this effect Kerley if production isn’t there?

Jordan Matthews, Eagles – The QB situation in Philadelphia is concerning but the Eagles found value at pick 42 in this year’s draft. Matthews has impressed during camp practices but came out inconsistent in the Eagles preseason game 1. Matthews record 4 receptions but also coughed up 3 drops. Matthews has a chance to grow in this offense so it’s going to be interesting how much of an opportunity he given in his rookie season. Matthews appears to be lining up in the slot a bunch with will certainly be a good thing for his value in PPR leagues.

Jeff Janis, Packers – Janis is back practicing and should see playing time in the packers second preseason game after missing seven practices with Shingles.  Reports from the coaching staff this summer are all positive and they have nothing but great things to say about the speedy 6’3 former division II standout.  Janis was the packers seventh round selection in the 2014 NFL draft.

Wyndham Championship Fantasy Preview

Rory, Rory, Rory! He’s in a zone and I’m tempted to take him again this week even though he’s not in the listed field. He’s been that good. Okay, that would be really dumb, but let’s take a look at what we’ve got on the docket this week. The tournament is the Wyndham Championship, in Greensboro, North Carolina. The track is Sedgefield Country Club, a par 70 course that stretch just barely past 7,100 yards. That’s a hot track.

That’s certainly on the shorter side of things, but not tiny. More notable is the return to the South with bermuda greens. The past few months has featured tournaments in the Northeast region + Canada. Most played on bentgrass surfaces. For this reason, some of the guys who poked there heads out of nowhere over the past two months can be ignored or at least dropped down a notch this week (Putnam, Stanley, Fritsch, Durant, Romero, etc.).

This tournament field is pretty weak sauce. It’s highlighted by Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, Bill Haas, and Patrick Reed, but it gets pretty bare after that. The course has been one of the easier courses in three of the past five years. Last year was rain-soaked and played a lot harder. Was it the weather or was it the switch to Champions bermuda greens that Sedgefield made in 2012? Either way, it will still be an easier test than most weeks. FedExCup Playoff and status motivations will also be something to look at this week.

The top 125 in the FEC standings and Money List both receive full exemption for next season. Looking at the bubble of both lists could provide you with some dark horses. Just rememeber there’s a reason they are on the bubble in the first place.

Correlated Stats

Adjusted Scoring: Always relevant.

Strokes Gained-T2G: Of the 21 golfers over the past three years that finished inside the top 5 here, 20 of them entered the week with a positive SG-T2G. Avoid the putting stats, and look at ball-strikers who will put them self in position for a lot of birdie putts.

Par 4 Scoring Average: A par 70 track always makes this one of the top stats of the week to check out. Just remember that not all par 4s are created equal and not all golfers play the same schedule.

Greens in Regulation: I rarely rely on this stats as it’s so reliant on difficulty of courses played, but it’s pretty relevant this week. On an easy course like this, you got to give yourself as many birdie chances as possible. Coincides well with SG-T2G or Proximity to Hole, as well.

Going for the Green: Aggressive play has paid off here in the past, 17 of the last 21 golfers to finish inside the top 5 were all inside the top 100 in Going for the Green. The rough is just 2″ so that is the likely cause. You can try to attack as many greens as possible here and not get penalized too much by the rough.

Approaches from 125-175 yards: This is the money range this week. There are only going to be four approaches per round from outside this range for most golfers this week.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

TOUR Championship – Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas

Crowne Plaza Invitational – Adam Scott, Boo Weekley, Zach Johnson

Deutsche Bank – Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson

Humana Challenge – Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson

Byron Nelson - Brendon Todd, Sang-moon Bae, Jason Dufner

The TOUR Championship is played on another Donald Ross designed course, so I like that it made the list at #1 and actually makes sense. Sneds won on this track in 2012 while Webb has finished top 5 each of the past two years.

The Crowne and Byron are both par 70 tracks and have similar tight fairway widths. Makes sense. The Humana and D Bank are two other tournaments played on easy courses. All five of these courses make sense in one way or the other.

Golfers in the field who landed inside the top 15 on multiple occasions over the past two years on these courses: Webb, Sneds, Horschel, CH3, Boo, Stuard, Beljan.

Players to Watch

Webb Simpson: He enters the week with the best season form of anyone in the field. If you’ve been following along with our nine-week study of form vs history, you’d know this is a great thing. Then add that he’s from the area and this tournament means a lot to him. The kicker of him over Sneds this week for me was the fact that he named his last daughter Wyndham. Yes, his daughter is named after this event, home of his first PGA TOUR win. Assuming he can post another top 25 this week, it will be time to pencil in Webb for this tournament in 2015 OAD leagues, if you haven’t already.

Billy ‘Frog Camo’ Horschel: He’s a GIR machine, and he’s found his groove, posting six of eight top 30s since THE PLAYERS. Hard not to like the guy who wears octopus pants and now frog camo pants.

Brandt Snedeker: On June 9th Snedeker had a strokes gained-T2G of -0.30 and now it sits at +0.04! That’s a lot of ground to make up in a short time, considering the sample size he had to overcome to raise that number. Much like Horschel, Sneds is in a groove, and also fighting for a Ryder Cup spot. Should be one of the top three favorites this week, for sure.

Charles Howell III: Karma. He’s got some coming his way, or at least he should. He got DQ’d from last years event because something fell off his driver and nobody realized it would be non-conforming if he played with it. Oops. He was my pick to click last year, so why not go back to the well?

Patrick Reed: Last year he entered this event with three top 10s in his six events leading up to it. He’s found some form of late, but nothing to that extreme. He will also be defending his first PGA title. The expectations are too high for my liking, and while I think he should finish in the top 25, it will be a soft-fade for me this week in most formats.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello: Just reiterating my love for RCB this week. The only guys on the Euro Tour with better form than him this year are Rory, Stenson, and Sergio. That’s a good list to be included in. Playing in the States is a little different, but he’s been over here for more than a week now and should be adjusted and ready for big things this week. Ryder Cup motivations as well. Other Euro Ryder Cup hopefuls looking to make a move this week: Francesco Molinari and Stephen Gallacher.

Ernie Els: Everything points to a big week, but I’ve been burned by too much Els mediocrity this year to fully get on board. He commited to this event on Friday before his monster weekend rounds, so maybe he was hoping to tune things up before the Playoffs? A couple days later and it looks like he could build on a fantastic finale…Ugh, I just can’t do it, but I don’t blame you if you do.

Brendon de Jonge: One of the top guys on TOUR without a win. As a Charlotte resident and a birdie machine, this would be one of the top courses for him to do it. Add in a weak field, and it gets even juicier. Seven of his last 12 Sedgefield rounds have been 68 or better. If he can throw in a 63 or 64 like he’s capable of, then he’ll be right there starring down his maiden win.

David Toms: All signs point to a great finish for him this week…except for that pesky back. He WD’d from the Barracuda and skipped out on the PGA with the same injury. To skip a major, it must really be serious. Others that would be great picks if not for recent injury scares: Boo Weekley, Camilo Villegas, Stuart Appleby.

Patrick Rodgers: Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth were the hot youngsters on TOUR last year and they finished 1 and 2 here. Rodgers is the next up-and-comer, so let’s see him follow in their footsteps. His introduction to the PGA TOUR has been fantastic as most of the events have been weaker fields on easy courses. That’s no different from this week. Should be there on the weekend and cheap at most places.

Carl Pettersson: This is his home town, he’s won here and finished T4 on two occasions. High upside and high floor this week. A good play in almost any format.

Andrew Svoboda: This is a strange inclusion but I’ve really noticed him in contention a lot lately. That’s probably because my fiancee picks him every week. He’s entered the final round inside the top 15 in four of his last 11 events. That’s not amazing for some golfers, but for Svoboda, that’s worth noting. Also, both of his top 10s were played on bermuda greens and he head back to bermuda-land this week. #DarkHorse

My Top 25 for the 2014 Wyndham Championship

1. Webb Simpson

2. Brandt Snedeker

3. Bill Haas

4. Hideki Matsuyama

5. Billy Horschel

6. Charles Howell III

7. Carl Pettersson

8. Francesco Molinari

9. Patrick Reed

10. Tim Clark

11. Brendon de Jonge

12. Nick Watney

13. Freddie Jacobson

14. Paul Casey

15. Martin Laird

16. Ernie Els

17. Brooks Koepka

18. Rafael Cabrera-Bello

19. Retief Goosen

20. Brian Harman

21. Robert Karlsson

22. John Huh

23. Shawn Stefani

24. Matteo Manassero

25. Scott Brown

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GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Sad news, DraftStreet has been purchased by DraftKings. Try out DraftKings if you were a big fan of DraftStreet.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

Wyndham Championship – DraftKings Edition

After the PGA Championship where many complained the salaries were too soft and beginner-friendly, DraftKings has made it a little more difficult. In my opinion, there is a Big Four at the top this week, consisting of Webb Simpson, Brandt Snedeker, Hideki Matsuyama, and Bill Haas. What order those belong in? That’s another question. However, you can’t fit all four into a lineup this week which is great news. A step in the right direction as far as DK pricing goes.

Instead of loading up on the studs this week, it might be wise to pick one or two of the studs and then finish out with a balanced lineup. If you think any studs are safe to finish well this week since they are playing a weak field, think again. Golfers like Stenson, Day, Scott, and DJ have all competed here and finished outside of the top 110. Webb and Haas both finished outside the top 120 in 2008, as well. Snedeker has two top 10s at Sedgefield but also finished 148th in 2011. Hmmmm, nobody is safe. Let’s see what kind of lineups we can put together for the Wyndham Championship on DraftKings:

Follow the Form

Scott Brown ($6800) 47th-20th-5th

Chad Campbell ($8000) 12th-74th-13th

Johnson Wagner ($6900) 27th-34th-7th

Nick Watney ($9100) 33rd-8th-12th-73rd

Tim Clark ($9900) 75th-50th-1st-5th

If you want a team full of golfers that will finish inside the top 50, this is probably the team for you. The upside is a little limited but they should be reliable this week. You’ve got $9,300 to finish out your squad. Justin Hicks is the hot golfer that fits, but he’s also 0-for-2 at Sedgefield with just one round under-par in four attempts.

Donald Ross Design

Webb Simpson ($10800) Top 25s in 9 of last 10 Donald Ross.

David Toms ($6900) Top 25s in eight of last 12 Donald Ross.

Retief Goosen ($7000) Top 25s in four of last five Donald Ross.

Camilo Villegas ($6500) Top 10s in four of seven Donald Ross.

Carl Pettersson ($9200) Top 25s in six of 12 Donald Ross.

Plenty of people smarter than I like to look at courses designed by the same architect. Looking at tournaments played on Donald Ross Courses since the 2008 PGA Championship, we can build this team above. If this team does well, you can thank Finnian McKenna. He was the inspiration for this team. With $9,600 left for your final golfer, you can fit in his favorite for the week, Nick Watney, or pick one of your favorites in that price range.

Course Horse-tory

Webb Simpson ($10800) 11th-22nd-1st-8th-132nd

David Toms ($6900) 16th-150th-17th-2nd-24th-41st

Martin Laird ($8300) 34th-67th-4th

Tim Herron ($3800) 28th-25th-18th-24th-122nd

Tim Clark ($9900) 26th-2nd-156th-6th

This team of course horses comes with a little more risk than usual. Sedgefield doesn’t open it’s doors to the same people year in and year out. Four of these five horses have a finish of 120th or worse to go along with their top finishes. The other, Laird, hasn’t played the course since 2010. Toms is coming off a W/D and also a pre-tourney W/D. He offers a lot of promise this week if his body allows it. Herron is old but has a share of the course record (61) here, which came just two years ago. Not bad for a scrub under $4K. Some other course horses to consider: Tim Petrovic, Camilo Villegas, Charles Howell III.

Handpicked Value Plays

Shawn Stefani ($7,100): He’s got the perfect combination of length and accuracy off the tee that can make this course a lot easier. At 82nd in the FEC standings, he’s safe and sound but also has a chance to pad that number versus the last weak field of the year. He’s 5-for-5 this year versus weak fields, including two top 15s. At $7,100, there is a very good chance you get a weekend tee time with top 15 upside.

Matteo Manasero ($7,600): Much like Stricker last week, you’re going to get a cheap, high-upside pick in Matteo, buying while his stock is lowest. I have him priced as an $8-$8.5K golfer, so you’re not getting a huge discount, but it’s still a discount for a golfer who will likely have a very low ownership after nearly finishing DFL last week. That makes the Italian a great GPP sleeper.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($6,400): RCB already impressed Ryder Cup captain early in the year as he was paired with McGinley in Qatar, shooting a 7-under followed by a 6-under in the first two rounds. Now it’s crunch time, and RCB needs to make his name relevant again. It’s not as if he’s been quiet all year, though. On the Euro Tour in 2014, he’s grabbed six top 10s, including two podium finishes. His Euro form has basically the equivalent of a Marc Leishman, Zach Johnson, or Hideki Matsuyama on the PGA TOUR. Matsuyama is in the field and priced at $11,000! There is always the unfamiliarity issues of playing in the States, but at a discounted rate of $6,400, I’m willing to take my chances!

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Wyndham Contest to win $7,000

Form Vs. Course History: PGA Review

We are now nine weeks into this study, so things are really starting to shape up and we can draw conclusions about course history vs golfer form. But first, we must talk about this PGA Championship that just took place.

What a tournament that was! Drama-packed all the way to the end, including some extra drama on the 18th thanks to rain delays and darkness. Rory stepped on the 18th tee box with a two-shot lead, meanwhile Phil and Rickie were basically forced to let Rory and Wies play up. They were not so happy about this decision. The Irishman nearly splashed his tee ball as he rushed to finish the round. A mere yard or two away from the water. Meanwhile, up on the green, Phil nearly holes out his chip shot from just off the green but taps in for birdie, forcing Rory to par out for the win. McIlroy hit his second into the greenside bunker to really make things interesting as he proceeded to splash out and then hit a really nice lag putt to secure the tap-in par and a one-stroke victory.

Now let’s see how well we could have predicted these finishes:

Course/Tournament History

PGA Average Finish: 31st place

PGA Money Earned: $2,667,792

9-Week Average Finish: 36th place

9-Week Avg Money Earned: $851,922

Season Form

PGA Average Finish: 24th place

PGA Money Earned: $2,356,609

9-Week Average Finish: 33rd place

9-Week Avg Money Earned: $1,341,319

Recent Form (Last 6 Weeks)

PGA Average Finish: 24th place

PGA Money Earned: $2,308,292

9-Week Average Finish: 36th place

9-Week Avg Money Earned: $756,695

Conclusion

It was a profitable week all-around. Each method of prognosticating netted over $2 million this week. We can give a big thanks to Rory for that, as he checked all the boxes. He had good history at PGA Championships, he had the 2nd best season form and his recent form was sizzling.

Tournament History yielded the only missed cut of the week, Keegan Bradley, but three top 10s out of Rory, Stenson, and Stricker still led the week as far as money earned goes.

Season form takes a rare step-down from 1st place honors as $2,356,609 earned wasn’t enough this week. Hard to complain with that number though, so it was definitely not a disappointment. Season form still leads the way over the nine-week stretch as we’ve proved that sample size is king.

Recent form settles for another last place showing this week, and now sits in the rear as far as money earned per week goes.

PGA Championship Fantasy Preview

While Dustin Johnson won’t be teeing it up and Tiger’s status is up in the air this week, there will still plenty of world-class talent on display in Louisville, KY, this week at the 96th PGA Championship.

The course is Valhalla Golf Club, host of the 1996 and 2000 PGA Championships, the 2008 Ryder Cup, as well as the 2008 Jr. Ryder Cup. The course is constantly being tweaked, but the most recent version is played as a par 71 that stretches to 7,458 on the scorecard. The fairways are generous, which will provide for a second-shot experience this week, as that’s where the strokes are going to be gained or lost.

Correlated Stats

It’s back to the rotating courses which means less emphasis on statistics for me. Sure, you can look at the layout and design to determine some stats, but they just aren’t as reliable as if you have years of data to go off. This week we can take a look at adjusted scoring average, par 4 scoring average, and strokes gained-T2G.

Driving distance can be very useful this week as the course stretches out past 7,450 yards but it’s not vital. A lot will come down to how the course is set up this week. If I had to take a guess, I would suspect they will set up the course to give bombers and short-hitters a fair chance. If the weather cooperates with that plan, that’s another story. So, feel free to give bombers a slight bump this week, but don’t get stuck on bombers only.

Another stat I’ve seen a lot this week is the trend of the last X number of PGA winners earning a top 25 the week prior or in their previous start. I will just say this, that’s a fine stat to use as a tiebreaker decision-making tool, but I would not lead my research with that trend. Dufner lost in a playoff in the 2011 and he entered the week with four missed cuts. He was one stroke away from winning. In 2008 Sergio and Ben Curtis both finished on the heels of PGA winner, Padraig Harrington. Sergio finished 36th the week prior at the WGC-BI, while Curtis had played two weeks prior at the RBC Canadian Open, finishing T48. I’m sure there are plenty of other examples of guys that came close at the PGA but just didn’t get the breaks. If you lock yourself into just what the winners have done, you are falling for survivorship bias.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

British Open – Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els

WGC-Bridgestone – Matt Every, Tiger Woods, Tiger Woods

WGC Cadillac – Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose

U.S. Open – Martin Kaymer, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson

the Memorial - Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods

It’s no surprise when these big events correlate with each other. Looking at the last two majors and WGC events should be some nice leaderboards to use as a tie-breaker. The Memorial is played on another Jack Nicklaus golf course, not too far way. Matsuyama is the most recent winner, there, but Kenny Perry also won there three times. Hello.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy: It’s hard not to start your focus on Rory. He’s won back-to-back tournaments, both against strong fields. Winning three times in a row is very rare, in fact only Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh have done it since 2000. Early in the season, Rory called for someone to take over the game of golf and become the new Tiger, winning this week would be a step in the right direction and officially begin the Rory era. Also, he’s got this blonde following him now.

Adam Scott: If Rory is number one this week, the Aussie is right behind him. Last week I had him pegged at 7th in my rankings and he finished 8th. I knew while he’d won on Firestone, it wasn’t ideal for him. This week looks like a great set up for him, and would be surprised if he didn’t finish in the top 5. I was tempted to make Scott my #1 this week, but really he is #1b after Rory.

Sergio Garcia: Another guy who I didn’t have high expectations for last week at Firestone, but boy was I wrong? Sergio is locked in right now and can play any golf course. That’s great news, because he’s came out and said Valhalla isn’t his favorite course. That lack of confidence is a little concerning, but his game is in top form.

Phil Mickelson: One of the few that have seen Valhalla slowly evolve into what it is today. He’s finished top 10 in both previous edition’s here and was a member of the Ryder Cup team in 2008. There is still a ton of fuss about no top 10s, but his median finish of 21st place (15th on TOUR) leaves me feeling confident in a strong finish this week.

Jordan Spieth: His game was off after partying in Vegas for his 21st birthday, but now it’s back to business. Spieth was part of the 08′ Jr. Ryder Cup team that dismantled Manassero and the Europeans, give him a tiny boost for that. His approach game is always top-notch and it usually comes down to how well he’s putting. With all eyes on golfers entering with better form, this would be the perfect week for Spieth to sneak up and grab his first Major.

Rickie Fowler: Speaking of first majors, the love of Fowler is going a little overboard. I was a big supporter at The Open because of his focus on majors, but now all the value is gone, and the pressure at an all-time high. After three straight top 5s at majors, how will he handle the pressure? The last time Tiger posted three straight top 5s at majors he posted a 23rd place in his next. Westwood posted a 16th place after he did the same. Jason Day posted three straight top 10s before falling to 30th in his next major. G-Mac had a run of three straight top 11s before falling to 62nd in his next. Kaymer went for top 10s in three straight then 82nd place in his next. Fowler’s run in majors has been impressive, but four straight is just never done. I’d be surprised if he finished inside the top 10 this week.

Keegan Bradley: Loves how the PGAs set up for his game, and has Ryder Cup motivations. Gotta love him this week.

Jason Dufner: Lost nearly seven strokes with the flat stick last week. Although, that’s not entirely true, since he gave his putter to a child in the crowd out of frustration and finished off the final round with his 3-wood I believe it was. Not the kind of confidence you want to back entering a major championship.

Jason Day: Okay, his injuries are getting out of hand. Claims to be nearly 100% but was struggling with vertigo. Really? He can’t catch a break. Flying way under the radar, but really not worth the risk.

Marc Leishman: I’m on the anti-Leishman train this week. He’s one of the most popular picks this week it appears, but I’m just not seeing it. Sure, I have him inside my top 30, so I don’t see him as a total failure, but on DraftKings his price has been inflated to $8,100. On a week where most mid-level golfers have found their salaries falling below their true talent salary, I’m not willing to overpay on Leishman based on a run of hot play. I’m on the fade train, let’s see how this works out.

J.B. Holmes: Kentucky guy and was a monster with the driver in hand last week. He played in the 08′ Ryder Cup and has already won this year. I like his chances to contend this week.

Hideki Matsuyama: Could be noise due to small sample size, but he has finished outside the top 30 in five of his six career starts on courses over 7,400 yards. Four of those came in majors, which happen to be his four worst major championship finishes. Coincidence? Maybe. But he got a small downgrade for me because of that. I still see big things for Yama in the very near future.

Henrik Stenson: He’s been a monster in big tournaments and comes in this week under the radar. He’s someone that people won’t be surprised to see win but are overlooking prior to the tournament. Don’t make that mistake.

My Top 50 for the 2014 PGA Championship

1. Rory Mcilroy

1b. Adam Scott

3. Justin Rose

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Jordan Spieth

6. Keegan Bradley

7. Phil Mickelson

8. Henrik Stenson

9. Sergio Garcia

10. Jim Furyk

11. Bubba Watson

12. Charl Schwartzel

13. Lee Westwood

14. Jimmy Walker

15. Graeme Mcdowell

16. Steve Stricker

17. Gary Woodland

18. Hideki Matsuyama

19. Bill Haas

20. Rickie Fowler

21. Chris Kirk

22. Zach Johnson

23. Ryan Moore

24. Tiger Woods

25. Brandt Snedeker

26. Francesco Molinari

27. Hunter Mahan

28. Marc Leishman

29. Webb Simpson

30. Ian Poulter

31. Jason Day

32. J.B. Holmes

33. Luke Donald

34. Miguel Angel Jimenez

35. Robert Karlsson

36. Martin Kaymer

37. Freddie Jacobson

38. Kevin Na

39. Thomas Bjorn

40. Victor Dubuisson

41. Brendon de Jonge

42. Billy Horschel

43. Harris English

44. Kenny Perry

45. Kevin Chappell

46. Brendon Todd

47. Jason Dufner

48. John Senden

49. K.J. Choi

50. Russell Knox

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $200 PGA Contest to win $100K

Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Sad news, DraftStreet has been purchased by DraftKings. Try out DraftKings if you were a big fan of DraftStreet.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

PGA Championship – DraftKings Edition

This week on DraftKings, we have a ton of value. Beware of the value, it’s everywhere. If I had to guess, I would say the DraftStreet team has started to have some input on the PGA salaries. This week’s list of salaries looks very similar to how they used to on DraftStreet. You have the top-heavy Rory, sitting on top at $11.6K, making you decide right away whether you want to reach for him. Then you have guys below the $4K line. Sure, these golfers have no real chances, but it gives you a super cheap punt option, if you want to go that route. There are plenty of low-priced options under $6,000 this week that do have a chance, as well.

Personally, I love the salary structure this week, because it offers a ton of different routes to success. Pricing Rory nearly $1K over the next highest golfer was a great idea. Rory is the flavor of the month, and will be heavily owned no matter what they put his salary at. At 23.2% of your team salary, you still have to hit on your other five golfers if Rory does go on to win his third in a row. Also, there are a ton of options in the $7K – $9K range that have a very legitimate chance at winning this week. The salary structure has made Stars & Scrubs a legit option, but a balanced roster is just as reasonable. Let the battle begin, go enter some DraftKings contests now…

Follow the Form

Jim Furyk ($9,000) 15th-2nd-4th

Ryan Moore ($7,400) 8th-12th-7th

Graeme McDowell ($8,500) 8th-9th-9th + Euro Win

Justin Rose ($10,500) 4th-23rd-1st + Euro Win

Marc Leishman ($8,100) 3rd-5th-90th-8th

This was the team to beat last week, as most of the golfers stayed true to their recent form. That’s not always the case, though. It’s amazing how quickly Furyk went from the top dog to just $9K. Leishman remains in great form, and will be a very popular pick this week. G-Mac and Rose both won on the Euro Tour and have been playing well on the PGA TOUR as well. Ryan Moore has finished 26th or better in seven of his last nine events.

Major Motion Picture

Lee Westwood ($7,500) Top 10s in 11 of his last 22 Majors.

Steve Stricker ($7,100) Top 25s in 14 of his last 21 Majors.

Freddie Jacobson ($5,400) Top 40s in four of last five Majors.

Adam Scott ($10,700) Top 15s in 11 of last 12 Majors.

Henrik Stenson ($9,500) Top 10s in 6 of last 19 Majors.

Not all Majors are created equal, but success is often transferred from one big event to the next. Some golfers can’t handle the big stage. These are not those golfers. Other golfers in elite territory when it comes to performance in Majors since 2009: Tiger, Rory, Phil, Keegan, Matsuyama, Kuchar, Day. Mix and match these golfers and you should find success this week.

Tournament Horse-tory

Keegan Bradley ($9,100) 19th-3rd-1st

Steve Stricker ($7,100) 12th-7th-13th-18th-110th-39th

Rory McIlroy ($11,600) 8th-1st-65th-3rd-3rd

Marc Leishman ($8,100) 12th-27th-48th

David Toms ($4,600) 7th-42nd-4th-33rd-36th-15th

This week we’ll be using tournament history rather than course history. This squad knows how to take care of the typical PGA Championship setup. You’ve got $9500 left to spend on your final selection, you should be able to find plenty of options in that region of salary.

Handpicked Value Plays

K.J. Choi ($4,800): He’s finished top 50 in 17 of his last 22 Majors, he’s 14-for-19 on the season, he finished runner-up as recent as seven weeks ago, and now he’s priced under $5K? Choi has entered the PGA Championship 13 times and made the weekend in 11 of those. Sure, his upside is limited at this point in his career, but his floor is similar to a golfer that should be priced in the $7K range. At $4.8K, Choi is a great salary-saver this week.

Steve Stricker ($7,100): Talk about over-reaction to one week. Sure, Stricker showed up at the Bridgestone with a grizzly-beard and went on to struggle mightily for four days. You have to cut him some slack, it was just one week. That’s the beauty of DFS, each week is a new season. So many people will be terrified of Stricker this week and refuse to touch him after last week’s showing. In terms of market value, now is the perfect time to jump on him. He will never be $7.1K again, and he’s usually over $9K when he’s in true form. Since 2009, Stricks has a top 25 percentage in Majors of 66.67%, bested only by Lee Westwood. After shaking off the rust last week, I think Stricker bounces back this week in a big way.

Kenny Perry ($4,000): What a story is would be if Kenny Perry found the winner’s circle this week. The Kentucky native lost in a playoff here in 1996 and is now playing what he declares to be his final Major. He just took down the beast known as Bernhard Langer last week on the Champions Tour, so he’s still got some juice left in him. At near minimum, you can’t afford not to roster Perry at least on one lineup this week.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $200 PGA Contest to win $100K

Form Vs. Course History: Bridgestone Review

Just like Jimmy Furyk two weeks ago, Sergio entered Sunday with a nice cushion but got passed over thanks to a mediocre final round. You can call it regression after three over-performing rounds, or you can call it nerves, but either way Sergio couldn’t bring home the bacon at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Rory McIlroy was the beneficiary as he won his second consecutive start ahead of the PGA Championship. Rory is absolutely locked in right now, and it will be hard not to make him the favorite at the PGA Championship even though three-in-a-row is so rarely done on the PGA TOUR.

What was the leading indicator of success this week at the Bridgestone? Was is course history, season form or recent form? If you’ve been following along for the past eight weeks, you probably already know the answer. Season form led the way, yet again, and this week it wasn’t even close. Here are the numbers:

Course/Tournament History

WGC-BI Average Finish: 37th place

WGC-BI Money Earned: $570,250

8-Week Average Finish: 37th place

8-Week Avg Money Earned: $624,938

Season Form

WGC-BI Average Finish: 13th place

WGC-BI Money Earned: $2,762,000

8-Week Average Finish: 35th place

8-Week Avg Money Earned: $1,214,408

Recent Form (Last 6 Weeks)

WGC-BI Average Finish: 27th place

WGC-BI Money Earned: $1,251,000

8-Week Average Finish: 38th place

8-Week Avg Money Earned: $562,745

Conclusion

Surprise, surprise, season form wins another week. That is now five of eight week’s since we’ve started this experiment where season form resulted in the most cash earned. Sample size is king, so it’s not surprise that veering away from true skill and overreacting to one or two results leads to a mixed bag. This week was record-breaking, with the top 5 earning over two million bones, putting the 8-week average over 1 million.

Recent form also eclipsed the one million dollar mark this week, thanks to Sergio’s runner-up finish. In addition, Marc Leishman was right behind these guys, as sixth on the recent form rankings. His solo third would have been a nice addition to these numbers, as well.

Tournament history just didn’t get it done. The course didn’t play as difficult as last season but it was still +0.389 relative to par. Guys like Stricker, Jimenez, Oosthuizen, and Donald were big strikeouts for any of the course history buffs this week. Rory and Furyk were sixth and seventh on the course history rankings, but I’m not going to navigate the system of using the top 5, unadjusted. That’s the whole point of this exercise.

WGC Bridgestone Fantasy Preview

This week we head to Akron, Ohio to visit with LeBron James and also check out some action at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. The course is Firestone Country Club’s South Course. A par 70 course that reaches 7,400 yards on the scorecard. That’s really long for a par 70, but hold the phone… don’t run out to load your teams with bombers just yet. If you take out the massive 667-yard 16th hole, the yardage of this venue is not all that intimidating. No wonder guys like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, and Jim Furyk have excelled here in the past.

Correlated Stats

This week we return to normalcy, with some course history to look at. We find that adjusted scoring, par 4 scoring, scrambling, and strokes gained-T2G are going to be the four key stats.

Firestone possessed the hardest greens to hit from inside 125 yards last year, just 74% from close-range, and also ranked 5th in longest proximity to hole when scrambling. Scrambling is definitely a big-plus on a course like this. On the flip side, always good to remember that a golfer who hits 70% of greens doesn’t need as much scrambling as a golfer who hits 50% of greens. Take a look at scrambling, but don’t fall in love, is what I’m trying to say.

Over the past three years, 95% of the top-10 finishers here have entered the week with a positive SG-T2G. That may seem obvious, because most of the field is elite from tee-to-green, but still important to look at. Some names in the field currently with a negative SG-T2G and probably a good idea to avoid: Brandt Snedeker, Tim Clark, Jonas Blixt, Matt Every, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Russell Henley, and Scott Stallings.

Taking a look at last year’s numbers, we can see that the average hole will have golfers coming in from 185 yards on their approach shots. On a per-hole basis the averages are: four shots from 100-150 yards out, eight shots from 150-200 yards, and six shots from 200+ yards. Because of this, don’t be afraid to give Approaches from 175-200 and Approaches from 200+ a strong look. Justin Rose is 9th in the former stat, but 157th from 200+ yards out. Finding some golfers that can excel from both of those lengths may be key.

With Firestone possessing tight fairways, a lot tighter than average on TOUR, it’s accuracy over distance for me this week. It’s rare for me to say that, but the numbers support the claim this week. The average driving accuracy of all top-10 finishers over the past three years is 59th, while the average declines as you expand your search to outside the top 10. The opposite is true for driving distance. The average driving distance rank of the top-10 finishers is 94th while the average of all finishers inside the top 75 (basically the entire field) is 82nd… Accuracy over distance this week.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

the Memorial - Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods

WGC Cadillac – Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose

Quicken Loans National – Justin Rose, Bill Haas, Tiger Woods

The Masters – Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Bubba Watson

Arnold Palmer Invite – Matt Every, Tiger Woods, Tiger Woods

First off we can look at the Memorial. Muirfield Village is located right next door, played on similar total yardage with bentgrass greens, has a strong field, difficult course, and generally runs 13 on the stimp. Those all match up well with this week’s venue. They were both also in the top 5 hardest courses in concerns to scrambling proximity to hole last year. That’s not all, they were both inside the top 5 hardest courses for birdie or better percentage from the rough.

Congressional CC (Quicken Loans) is another course that popped up a lot in regards to similar difficulties and course statistics. The WGC Cadillac is another WGC event with similar length and green sizes. Should correlate nicely, as well. The Masters and API both have length, are difficult tracks, and played versus a strong field. All correlate very nicely with this week.

Players to Watch

Tiger Woods: Tiger is no stranger to Firestone. You may have heard about his success here, winning eight times in 14 attempts. He showed signs of old Tiger in his last start, but he still wasn’t quite right. I think he takes another step in the right direction this week, and finds his way into contention, but doesn’t dominate like we’ve seen in the past.

Steve Stricker: Tiger’s partner in crime has also enjoyed his time at Firestone CC. Stricks owns five straight top 15s and have a positive SGP on the course in each of those seven starts.

Luke Donald: Donald is a sneaky option this week, as he’s kind of fallen off the radar. Don’t overlook his five top 10s in nine WGC-BI starts. Him and Stricker are the only two that have played each of the past five Bridgestone’s and earned a positive strokes gained-putting in each of the five appearances. In fact, Donald has gained 17.412 strokes with the putter over his last five Firestone starts. That’s a good way to catapult yourself into contention each year.

Keegan Bradley: One of his favorite events, and for good reason. He’s finished 15th, 1st, and 2nd in his three starts here. Bradley’s finished 12th or better all three years in concerns to proximity to hole and top 25 in SGP in all three starts at Firestone. He loves the layout and his form is coming together, with two top 5s in his last five events. I’m not afraid to make him my #1 this week.

Sergio Garcia: One of my favorite golfers, but his previous success at Firestone doesn’t excite me. He owns just one top 10 in 13 attempts, and that came back in his debut in 1999. Serge has finished outside the top 30 in the field in proximity to hole here in four of the past five years and has finished outside the top 60 in the field in strokes gained-putting in three of the last five years. Garcia has been one of the most consistent golfers this year, but I’m not expecting much more than a top 25 this week.

Rory McIlroy: Hard to fade him if you say him swing it at The Open. You could say this is a “letdown spot” after winning a major, and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree. That’s the only real negative for Rory entering the week.

Jim Furyk: EN FUEGO. Also three top 10s here in his last four trips. Unfortunately, he’s been priced accordingly on DraftKings, eliminating any value unless he finally decides to win.

Martin Kaymer: The week I finally decide to get on board with the German and now he gets paired with Tiger. We saw what happened to Stenson at The Open when he was paired with Tiger. It’s not enough to sway me off Kaymer this week, as he really enjoys putting these greens at Firestone. He’s been inside the top 20 SGP in each of the past three Bridgestones.

Lee Westwood: On the opposite side of things, you have Westwood who has no troubles knocking it close, finishing 7th or better in Proximity to Hole in three of his last four trips to Firestone, but couldn’t make a five-footer to save his life. A nice sleeper if he can manage his putter.

Jason Day: Resident of Columbus, Ohio, and big-game hunter coming in under the radar. The wrist is the only concern.

Jason Dufner: Another Ohio resident with the first name of Jason. He’s earned top 10s in his first two appearances here. It’s also about time for him to rattle off a few big finishes.

Webb Simpson: Par 70 monster. Top 15s in seven of his last 10 par-70 events. A T14 in his debut here last year.

Hideki Matsuyama: Won in the sister-Ohio tournament, the Memorial, earlier this year. He’s already established himself as a big-tourney golfer. He’s really on the cusp of becoming a superstar, and think he wins another event this year. Why not make it another Ohio one?

Zach Johnson: I should really love ZJ since I’m an Iowa native just like him. However, it’s quite the opposite. There is something I can’t stand about him, but I’m not letting that get in the way this week. He’s finished 16th or better in six of his 10 starts at Firestone. Sign me up, please.

Adam Scott: It feels strange to not have him ranked inside the top 3 for any tournament. I’ve decided to make an educated fade this week as his putter has been cold in past Firestone starts. His SGP in the last five WGC-BI’s has been 18th-73rd-4th-64th-79th. Sure, you have those years of 18th and 4th, with that 4th ranked SGP resulting in a win. However, when you’re trying to narrow down a stacked field like this one, you will look for any small advantage you can get. I think Scott finishes outside the top 5 this week, and that’s enough for me to fade him in DFS.

My Top 25 for the 2014 WGC Bridgestone Invitational

1. Keegan Bradley

2. Rory Mcilroy

3. Jim Furyk

4. Steve Stricker

5. Zach Johnson

6. Matt Kuchar

7. Adam Scott

8. Martin Kaymer

9. Jason Day

10. Justin Rose

11. Tiger Woods

12. Luke Donald

13. Jason Dufner

14. Ryan Moore

15. Hideki Matsuyama

16. Henrik Stenson

17. Sergio Garcia

18. Bill Haas

19. Rickie Fowler

20. Bubba Watson

21. Jordan Spieth

22. Charl Schwartzel

23. Webb Simpson

24. Miguel Angel Jimenez

25. Phil Mickelson

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