The Underachieving AFC East Predictions
I found my way back to writing about football after a long hiatus. I am glad to have the opportunity to write these articles again, it is something I am passionate about. Thanks to Josh Culp for giving me this opportunity.
We will get started with the underachieving AFC East, and I will make my rounds to the rest of the NFL in days to come. The AFC East has been won by the New England Patriots 10 out of the last 11 years. In my opinion, it is due more to the weak competition than the Patriots being that dominant of a team. In many other divisions around the NFL, the Patriots could find themselves out of the playoffs many of those years. The Bills made some moves and could be looking a lot more solid this season. The Jets are set up to disappoint yet again with a solid run game, solid defense, and terrible pass offense that they are notorious for. The Dolphins look to improve their 8-8 record and move on from their off-field issues in 2013.
New England Patriots – 2014 Projection: 12-4
2013 Record: 12-4
They have potential for a drop off, but the rest of the AFC East most likely will allow them to take the division with ease as per usual. I don’t think the moves they made in the offseason are going to bring them out of the ranks of a low end contender. Darrelle Revis will help bolster the team’s defense that allowed 371.3 yards per game, good for 26th in the NFL. When playing offenses that placed 19th (Buffalo Bills), 25th (New York Jets), and 27th (Miami Dolphins) in total offensive yards per game 2 times a piece last year that is a pretty daunting statistic. While the “Revis Island” effect may help their cause, I don’t believe that it has potential to completely turn around a mediocre defense.
They also failed to find a solid go to wide receiver for Brady to work with. If they turn up the usual 12-4 record, it is because the usual suspects of the AFC East failed to capitalize on their opportunity to unseat the Patriots for the first time since 08 when the Dolphins had a tie breaker over them at 11-5.
X-Factor – Rob Gronkowski can make or break the Patriots this season. There is no question about his talent, his hands, his size (6’6, 265 lbs) and his ability to wreak havoc, especially in the end zone. The only question is whether or not he can stay healthy; he has missed 14 games in the past 2 seasons and has had more surgeries than most at the age of 25.
Miami Dolphins – 2014 Projection: 10-6
2013 Record: 8-8
The biggest problems for the Dolphins in the 2013 season were distractions which dissipate with time, and their running game which they addressed with the pickup of Knowshon Moreno. They seem to have tossed aside all the names involved in the bullying scandal from 2013 and also addressed a hole at the cornerback position with Cortland Finnegan who may collect a few fines for his level of physicality and intensity, but there is no doubt that he is effective at his position. With Brent Grimes experience and talent starting opposite Finnegan, they should be able to shut down most of the passing games that they face, or at least slow them down a lot. Their offense has plenty of weapons and can have a breakout year this year if the line can hold up. Their offensive line has changed a lot and will have a lot to do with their success or demise.
X-Factor – Brandon Albert was a first time Pro Bowler after paving the way for Jamaal Charles’ 1980 all-purpose yards in 2013. He is a big piece in the offensive line overhaul created by the bullying scandal. Albert can pave the way for the Dolphins and shore up this offensive line that was plagued with holes, they allowed 58 sacks, dead last in the NFL. They have a lot of room for improvement and it starts with Brandon Albert.
Buffalo Bills – 2014 Projection: 9-7
2013 Record: 6-10
The Bills had one of their better drafts in quite a few years; they addressed their issues in the draft as well as the free agency. A couple of their notable acquisitions include Mike Williams (WR) and Brandon Spikes (LB). Mike Williams gives another much needed weapon for E.J Manuel, who if he remains healthy certainly has the potential to have a solid year. Sammy Watkins is making crazy one-handed grabs look routine during training camp and practices, he is also crazy fast running a 4.34 40-yard dash. With those two additions on top of C.J. Spiller, who has proven to be a very deadly weapon even without the supporting cast to do that the Bills offense has a lot of potential for growth this season.
The Bills were 2nd in the league with 57 sacks, and 2nd in interceptions with 23, however, their run defense struggled. They were 28th in the league allowing 128.9 yards rushing per game; this is where the Brandon Spikes acquisition could pay some serious dividends with some sure tackling in the middle of the field. Injury to Kiko Alonso will certainly be felt but this defense can still be solid for 2014.
X-Factor – Sammy Watkins: Typically rookie wide receivers do not put up gaudy numbers statistically. I am not saying that Watkins will, but the Bills will need him to make some big plays in crucial moments of games this year to bring them into contention in the AFC East. They utilized the 4th overall pick on Watkins and will need him to be an immediate starter and impact player for them.
New York Jets – 2014 Projection: 5-11
2013 Record: 8-8
I believe this is the year that Rex Ryan finds his imminent doom. After sticking by Sanchez for entirely too long they continue to have no passing game in a game dominated by the pass. They have not posted more than 8 wins since the 2010 season and aren’t poised to this year. The pickup of Chris Johnson should help a team that averaged 18.1 points per game in 2013, but not as much as people might think. Johnson will be turning 29 as the season begins and not too many backs maintain their production as they approach 30. His production hasn’t been what it used to be and the supporting cast is just as questionable as his last few seasons with Tennessee.
The acquisition of Eric Decker would be a lot nicer if there were any names to back it up bigger than Jacoby Ford and David Nelson. If you asked who these guys are, I am sure you are not alone. I am a big Eric Decker fan, but this stint with the Jets won’t be pretty. He joins a team that had the 31st ranked team in passing yards, 183.2 per game and 13 TDS passing which was good for 32nd. If they put Vick in there it may patch the hole for a little while but ultimately they don’t have enough weapons for an aging Vick to be putting up much in the way of numbers.
X-Factor – Muhammed Wilkerson has his sack count increasing on a year-to-year basis and is a nightmare against the run as well. In general, the defense needs to be phenomenal in order for their record even reach 8-8 again. Pass rushers cause a lot of turnovers that don’t go on their stat sheets, Wilkerson had 10.5 sacks in 2013 and will continue to bring the pressure but needs to continue to improve to bring his team to the next level.
