Josh Culp's Blog, page 47

The Dynamic NFC South

There never seems to be a back-to-back winner of the NFC South. While this year could be different, history does tend to repeat itself. The Panthers are returning with a very solid team, but the shifting around of their offensive weapons could prove to have an adjustment period. The Saints are always in the running and they look fully capable of taking the NFC South as well. The Falcons and Buccaneers look to bounce back from forgettable seasons with key injuries leaving them in rough spots in 2013.

New Orleans Saints – 2014 Projection: 11-5
2013 Record: 11-5

Drew Brees is another candidate for MVP in the 2014 season. Brees has his favorite targets sticking around going into this season and should continue to put up elite numbers. Jimmy Graham will be celebrating a lot of touchdowns this season, he had 16 in 2013. Coach Peyton would like to see him choose a different celebration than dunking it over the uprights to avoid penalties; I have to imagine he will at least repeat once or twice.

Marques Colston’s production dropped off marginally and looks to bounce back after failing to break 1,000 yards for the first time in 5 years. First round pick Brandin Cooks will be another asset to this already stellar offense, Cooks is good at making tacklers miss and should have a very solid rookie campaign that will aid the Saints in a year that they can go the distance.

The Saints defense was 4th in points allowed with 304, that is 19 points a game. The defense was very solid against the pass, 2nd in passing yards allowed, while the run defense was middle of the road. With this solid a defense and a crazy productive offense they are a threat to push deep in the playoffs every season. They added safety, Jarius Byrd out of the free agency, which adds some sure tackling and a pretty solid ball hawk. He is a 3 time pro bowler and is sure to make a positive impact on the Saints defense.

X-Factor – Brandin Cooks can add another dynamic to this already very potent offense. His speed (4.33 40 yard dash), exceptional hands, and elusiveness should make him an asset to the Saints right out of the gate. Cooks broke Pac-12 single season records of 128 receptions and 1,730 receiving yards in 13 starts. Cooks also added 16 receiving touchdowns. If Cooks can contribute right away as he seems fully capable, this Saints offense will be even harder to stop.

Carolina Panthers – 2014 Projection: 10-6
2013 Record: 12-4

The Panthers defense was better than all but the Seahawks in 2013; they were in 2nd for yards allowed (301.2 per game) and points allowed (15.1 per game). Luke Kuechly got selected for defensive player of the year honors in 2013. Kuechly had 154 tackles, 2 sacks and 4 interceptions to go with it, this all in his 2nd NFL season. The sky is the limit for Kuechly and if he keeps playing this way the Panthers will continue to be a strong candidate for the NFC South crown. Defensive end, Charles Johson’s 10 sacks aided the Panthers in their league leading 60 sacks. Charles Johnson being in the prime years of his career should notch another 10+ this season.

Cam Newton is in going into his 4th season in the NFL and has been playing consistently well. His yards on the ground and rushing touchdowns set him apart from some of the other QBs that have similar passing stats. Newton has been doing this with some inconsistency at the receiver position. He loses Steve Smith this season, but gains two veterans, a promising rookie and retains Greg Olson who was his leading pass catcher in 2013 with 73 catches, 816 yards receiving, and 6 TDs. One of the veteran wide outs the Panthers added is Jerricho Cotchery who proved to be a solid red zone target for the Steelers last year, he caught 10 TDs. They also added veteran possession receiver, Jason Avant, who in the past 5 seasons has averaged almost 50 receptions and hauled in about 500 yards receiving each season.

X-Factor – Kelvin Benjamin was the Panthers first round pick and he is looking to fill the top wide receiver spot. His size alone (6’5”, 240 lbs with an 83 inch wingspan) can garner extra coverage and presents mismatches for pretty much every defensive back in the league. Benjamin is highly touted for his ability to take full advantage of his size to go up and get the ball at its highest point as well as use it to create separation. If Benjamin can become a solid number one wide receiver for Cam Newton then the Panthers can certainly take the NFC South again this season.

Atlanta Falcons – 2014 Projection: 6-10
Atlanta Falcons 2013 Record: 4-12

The worst thing that happened to the Falcons without a doubt was the loss of Julio Jones in week 5 of the 2013 season. Roddy White also missed 3 games in 2013. These injuries without a doubt were a major cause of Matt Ryan’s first season in 4 years that all of his major statistics took a turn for the worse. Ryan’s yardage, touchdown total, and QB rating all went down while his interceptions went up. All of these stats were steadily taking a turn for the better in each season for the past 4 seasons before the 2013 campaign. This backwards trend may continue due to the fact that Ryan loses his best red zone target in Tony Gonzales to retirement. The Falcons could not establish a ground game at all; they came in at the bottom of the league with 77.9 rushing yards per game. If they can’t get a ground game going then they will continue to struggle offensively.

The Falcons defense struggled pretty terribly against the pass allowing opposing quarterbacks a very generous 102.4 QB rating. They were tied for 29th in the league with 32 sacks and didn’t really bring in any help at pass rushing. It will be another long year if they can’t stop opponent’s passing attacks, they don’t have one of the most dominant offenses themselves. The offense looks to have its work cut out for it going punch for punch with opposing offenses doing what they want to with this defense.

X-Factor – Desmond Trufant: was Atlanta’s first round pick in 2013 and needs to start playing like it. 2nd year corners are supposed to show some vast improvements and if he does then perhaps their pass defense can step it up a notch despite the lack of a pass rush. Trufant could also help by snagging a few more errant passes, the Falcons turnover ratio was -7, which isn’t going to cut it if they want to compete in the very competitive NFC South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2014 Projection: 6-10
2013 Record: 4-12

The Buccaneers offense put out the least amount (277 yards per game) of any team in the NFL. They set out to improve that situation this year by drafting and signing some offensive weapons. The Buccaneers signed Josh McCown who went on a tear when Jay Cutler sat out several games last season, McCown had 13 TDs and 1 INT while having 5 starts in 2013. They signed tight end Brandon Myers who has broken over 500 yards receiving and had 4 TDs with the Raiders and Giants the past 2 seasons. Myers were certainly be an asset to McCown, and so will #7 overall pick, WR Mike Evans whose size should make him a great red zone target as well as a go to guy for first down grabs. Louis Murphy who is a little more under the radar also was signed by the Buccaneers. Murphy looked to be a very promising rising star in his early years with the Raiders but with JaMarcus Russel throwing him the ball, how was he supposed to catch a whole lot? To give you an idea, Russel completed 48.8% of his throws in his final season (2009) and threw 3 TDs and 11 INTs. Look for Murphy to have a positive impact and add some solid depth to their receiving corps.

A healthy Doug Martin should go a long way as well to improving the offense. In his rookie campaign he had 1,924 all-purpose yards and 12 TDs to go with it. Martin missed 10 games last season which was a big part of the Buccaneers being the worst offense in the league. Their offensive line has been pretty brutal in preseason, so despite the positives to this offense, there are still some concerns. They did make a trade for pro bowl tackle Logan Mankins recently to attempt to alleviate some of those concerns, however, one lineman does not fix the entire problem.

On paper the Buccaneers defense was one of the middle of the pack defenses, in points and yards this is true, however, with how bad their offense was any defense can look bad. With Gerald McCoy (50 Tackles, 9.5 sacks in 2013) and Lavonte David (145 Tackles, 7 Sacks, 2 Forced Fumbles, 5 Interceptions in 2013) heading up their front 7, they should continue to excel. Overall, the Buccaneers should improve, but they aren’t quite to the level of their tougher division rivals.

X-Factor – Josh McCown has the offensive weapons needed to take this team into the playoffs. McCown has to be able to get by with a rough O line in order to do so. If he can manage to take the hits without getting taken out of the game and make accurate throws under pressure he can still pull it off.

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King of the North: NFC North Predictions

As long as Aaron Rodgers has a clean bill of health this will be the Packers division to lose in 2014. With the addition of Jared Allen and a clean slate on injuries, “Da Bears” should be contending for at least a wild card spot. The Lions and Vikings didn’t make the right moves to come out of the bottom-feeding department in the NFC North. The Packs are clearly the Kings of the North, but you never know if they can be unseated, that is why they play the game.

Green Bay Packers 2014 Projection: 12-4
2013 Record: 8-7-1

The only major concern for the Green Bay Packers is that they just lost B.J Raji for the season. They added Julius Peppers who should add some serious pressure to opposing QBs. He has had 7+ sacks the last six seasons. If anyone can utilize Peppers in creative ways to help him get at the QB, it is defensive coordinator Dom Capers. Since 2009 when Capers took over as defensive coordinator, the Packers are ranked 4th in total sacks with 204 and #1 in interceptions with 114. That is some consistency at pressuring the quarterback.

On the offensive side, as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the offense will do great things and they will be a team in contention for best team in the NFC and the NFL. There is no doubt that Rodgers is one of the top-tier quarterbacks in the league and if he plays a whole season he will compete for MVP without question. Randall Cobb is also hoping to play a full season in 2014, in 2012 (his last full season) he caught 80 balls, had 954 yards receiving and 8 TDs. That was his sophomore campaign with those numbers so he has a lot of room to improve.  Eddie Lacy looked fantastic in his rookie season, he ran for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs, and should be able to improve on these numbers with Aaron Rodgers being around more often to stretch the field.

X-Factor – Aaron Rodgers proved last year that he can make or break the Packers season. With 5 straight season of a 100+ QB rating, Rodgers is in the prime of his career and only 30, so he should have plenty of seasons left at the highest level. Rodgers even had one season with a 122.5 QB rating, 45 TDs and 6 INTs; those are video game numbers, with resets.

Chicago Bears 2014 Projection: 10-6
2013 Record: 8-8

The Bears defense was dead-last against the run last season, that isn’t the Bears defense that recent memory would tell us they should be. They were injury-riddled on defense, there were 42 games sat out by starters in the 2013 season. They lost pro bowl DT Henry Melton for 13 games, MLB D.J Williams for 10 games, weak side LB Lance Briggs for 7 games, and pro bowler Charles Tillman for 8 games. They will hope for better health this season as well as bringing in some solid defenders to beef up their front-7. They brought back DE Israel Idonije who had some very solid seasons with the Bears before a disappointing 11 tackles, and 0.5 sacks with the Lions last year. The 3 previous seasons with the Bears he averaged about 50 tackles and 7 sacks per season. They also brought in DE Lamarr Houston who has had some success statistically with the Raiders which can be a feat. He recorded 69 tackles and 6 sacks in the 2013 season with the Raiders.

Whether it was Jay Cutler or Josh McCown throwing the ball last season, it didn’t seem to matter. With two absolute terrors at wide receiver, it doesn’t have to be a miracle worker throwing them the ball. At 6’4”, 230 lbs, Brandon Marshall is a quarterback friendly wide out, he has ideal size and talent for the red zone or converting a first down. In his two seasons with the Bears he was had 100+ receptions, 1,200+ yards receiving and 11+ TDs, can’t get too much more consistent, high level production than that. Alshon Jeffery is a rising star who had a monster sophomore campaign with 1,421 yards receiving with 7 TDs to go with it.

X-Factor – Jared Allen is a beast. Allen has consistently gotten to the quarterback his whole career; he has 7 straight seasons of 10+ sacks. Allen also has amassed 64 stuffs and 554 tackles in his 10 year career. Allen’s sure tackling should be a huge part of the much needed improvement of the run defense for the Bears. If Allen were to grow back his mullet, there would be no telling what the possibilities could be, although his Fu Manchu seems to be delivering just fine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkI9axajmT8

Detroit Lions Projection: 5-11
2013 Record: 7-9

The Lions defense wasn’t anything to get too excited about in 2013; they had a forgettable season in that department. They were 5th worst in the league with 33 sacks, any defense that lacks consistency at getting to the quarterback will struggle keeping opposing offenses from moving the chains easily. The Lions didn’t go out of their way to pick up anyone too impressive in the way of helping them defensively. Their run defense was pretty solid at 6th in the NFL for yards allowed, however if the offense can pass with ease, they don’t need to run too much.

The Lions offense still relies pretty heavily on Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. This guy has unreal talent and size; he will continue to have well over 1,000 yard seasons with plenty of TDs to go with it. Beyond Johnson, Matthew Stafford doesn’t have any other great wide outs to throw to. They picked up Golden Tate to try to alleviate that problem, he had about 900 yards receiving and 5 TDs last season with the Seahawks, time will tell if that will translate well to the Lions. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell were a solid duo for the Lions and should proceed to be, they ran for over 1,600 yards collectively, and over 1,000 receiving yards to top it off.

X-Factor – Matthew Stafford needs to set himself apart from all the potentially elite quarterbacks and become one. Stafford put up 4,650 yards passing, 29 TDs, and 19 interceptions in 2013. The yardage and the talent are certainly there, but he needs to raise the TDs, and lower the interceptions. If Stafford can establish himself as elite then he and his Lions could find themselves competing with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers for the division, but until then they will hang out in mediocrity.

Minnesota Vikings – 2014 Projection: 4-12
2013 Record:  5-10-1

The Vikings still have Matt Cassel under center for them; otherwise they could have more potential this season. Cassel has had two solid statistical seasons, one in 2008 when Tom Brady went down and I quote a good friend of mine when I say that Brady “handed him the keys to the Ferrari (offense) and told him ‘just take it easy, and she will drive just fine’”. Randy Moss and Wes Welker each had over 1,000 yards receiving; it is every backup quarterback’s dream to land a situation like Cassel fell into in 2008. The only other season he put up a good statistical season was in 2010 with the Chiefs, the two-headed monster of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles ran for over 2,300 yards and 11 TDs keeping defenders on their toes while he lobbed it deep over their heads to Dwayne Bowe for 15 TDs. The point I am trying to make is Cassel doesn’t have the supporting cast required for him to look good.

The defense will be sorely missing the production and leadership that Jared Allen brought to them. That will free up a blocker on many occasions, opening up options for running backs to go for routes or just more time for opposing quarterbacks to find an open man. They attempted to replace this quarterback pressure with LB Anthony Barr, their first round selection in the 2014 draft. So far he looks solid, he has 1.5 sacks in the preseason, but he won’t be putting the kind of consistent pressure on the QB that Allen did in his time in Minnesota.

X-Factor – Teddy Bridgewater will end up starting by the end of the season barring some miraculous season by Cassel. If Bridgewater gets in there early enough in the season and defenses aren’t prepared for his style of play, he could win a few games before defenses can see some tendencies. After that if Bridgewater is feeling comfortable and hitting his stride, there is enough talent in Minnesota to make it into the playoffs as a 6 seed.

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Inconsistent NFC East Predictions

I predict that this division will be the most turned upside down division in football. A division that used to be one of the toughest divisions for opponents has fizzled out and become very inconsistent. The defense of the Cowboys, and Eagles were about as bad as it gets last season, they came in 1st and 4th respectively in yards allowed. While the Giants and Redskins struggles revolved more around their turnover margin, the Giants were at an alarming -15 and the Redskins were at -8. Every team in the division has a lot of room to improve and I think that there will be a cavalcade of turmoil in this division and a new team will be on top.

Dallas Cowboys – 2014 Projection: 9-7
2013 Record: 8-8

The Dallas Cowboys offense has to be worried about Tony Romo’s health but his preseason so far is looking like good news. Romo took 3 sacks, one of which was a very hard knockdown, at the end of each of these sacks he stood up and kept in the game. There is no question that Romo can put up numbers; he had 31 TDs and 10 interceptions last season. Romo has posted a QB rating over 90 for the past 8 seasons, not too many QBs in the league that can claim that feat.

Sean Lee’s injury is a huge loss for the Cowboys defense that allowed the most yards in the 2013 season. They will be calling upon 3rd round pick, Anthony Hitchens to fill that void and he won’t be able to put together a season like Sean Lee had last year, he had 99 tackles in 11 games that he played in.

They also have to worry about the loss of DeMarcus Ware, 7 time pro bowler. Their defense was bad last year with those guys most of the season and they were still 8-8. They do get a boost by getting back Anthony Spencer after missing all but part of the first game in 2013. In 2012 Spencer registered 95 tackles and 11 sacks despite missing 2 games during the season. The Cowboys had 34 sacks in 2013, only 3 better than the league worst of 31 sacks so the return of some QB pressure ought to go a long way.

X-Factor – Henry Melton was coming off of an impressive pro bowl season with the Bears in 2012 just to have his 2013 season concluded after 3 games from a torn ACL. He recorded 32 tackles and 6 sacks, which was good for 3rd amongst defensive tackles in 2012. If Melton can be as disruptive as his 2012 pro bowl season, he can help drag this defense out of the NFL’s worst category.

Washington Redskins – 2014 Projection: 9-7
2013 Record:  3-13

The Washington Redskins have had a solid run-game the past few years and that shouldn’t be any different this season. Alfred Morris put together a very solid season with 1,275 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns, while Robert Griffin III added 489 yards on the ground as well. After throwing for 20 TDs, 5 INTs, and rushing for 7 TDS in his 2012 rookie season, RG3 only had 16 TDs, 12 INTs, and added 0 scores on the ground. The Redskins added wide receiver DeSean Jackson who should help RG3 bounce back this season; he had limited options to throw to last season. An aging Santana Moss wasn’t of much aid and a laundry list of other unknown wide receivers slotted behind Pierre Garcon that don’t exactly ooze talent.

Their defense has some room for improvement as well. Their run defense surrendered the most touchdowns to opponents with 23 scores on the ground. They added veteran safety Ryan Clark to try to patch a big hole they had there, Clark has had 100+ tackles the last 3 seasons. They also allowed quarterbacks to be pretty efficient; opposing quarterbacks had a QB rating of 96.1 facing the Redskin’s defense. They added cornerback Tracy Porter to add some much needed depth to their secondary. They also only had 36 sacks in 2013 so they went out and added Jason Hatcher who had 11 sacks with the Dallas Cowboys last season.

X-Factor – Brian Orakpo was franchise tagged by the Washington Redskins going into the last season of his contract. Orakpo will need to step up and play another Pro Bowl caliber season in order to make the kind of money he deserves to be making at his production level. This will also bring the Redskins from the basement to competing for the NFC East pretty quickly this season.

Philadelphia Eagles – 2014 Projection: 5-11
2013 Record: 10-6

DeSean Jackson’s 82 receptions, 1,332 yards, and 9 TDs were impressive, now this player and his stats have taken their talents to their division rival Washington Redskins. Jeremy Maclin is coming off of a completely missed 2013 season from an ACL tear. Players whose best attribute is speed coming off of knee surgery can be a rough comeback. In his 4 seasons previous to his knee injury last season he hadn’t eclipsed 1,000 yards one time.

Maclin is by far the most talented wide out left on the Eagles, followed by Riley Cooper, whose 47 receptions, 835 yards, and 8 touchdowns helped them succeed plenty in the 2013 season. That was Cooper’s first season in a starting role, so there is no certainty that given a new, arguably not as talented opposite starting wide out, Cooper’s production can’t drop off. After Cooper there aren’t any wide outs to get too excited about, barring rookie wide out, Jordan Matthews who is unproven at this level, so if Maclin’s health becomes an issue it could be a long season for an offense that had a lot of success last season.

X-Factor – Trent Cole needs to have a stronger year this year, his 8 sacks helped an otherwise unimpressive pass defense last season. They allowed 4,636 yards passing last year, dead last in the NFL. Good pass defense starts with pressure on the quarterback; a pressured quarterback is far more likely to throw an errant pass. If Trent Cole and company can keep the opposing QBs on the run some more this season, they may find themselves to be repeat NFC East champions.

New York Giants – 2014 Projection: 4-12
2013 Record:  7-9

Eli Manning was a turnover machine last year; he threw 27 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles in the 2013 season. His 57.5 completion percentage and 69.4 QB rating are not too promising going into a season where he is to learn a new offense for the first time in his long career. Ryan Nassib could be starting by the end of the season with how much Eli will struggle this season. The drive that eased the minds of the Giants coaching staff in week 3 of the preseason against the Jets could have just as easily been reason for concern; he threw an apparent interception where Kyle Wilson stepped out of bounds just a split-second too early to negate it. If not for that step out of bounds, Eli would not have a single TD pass in the preseason. They also had next to no running game to go with alongside a turnover ridden passing game in 2013 and lost David Wilson in the offseason with a career ending injury.

The defense can only do so much when Eli is handing the opponent the ball constantly. The defense played some solid football overall, they need to get at the quarterback more often and cause opposing to play more like their own QB. They did contain the opposing quarterbacks reasonably well, allowing only a 78.3 passer rating, however only 34 sacks, 3 sacks above the lowest total in the NFL.

X-Factor – Eli Manning has to bounce back for his team to have any chance. He doesn’t have the best set up to be capable of doing so. He lost Hakeem Nicks without a viable replacement. Eli’s targets are Victor Cruz, Victor Cruz, and Victor Cruz. I say that jokingly but there really isn’t much for him to throw to. While they did draft Odell Beckham with their first overall pick, he has been sidelined with a nagging hamstring injury during some much needed preseason time for this young man.

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AFC West Projections

I will start by saying I have been, and will always be, a Broncos fan. I try to not be biased in my writing due to this fact. That being said I don’t think there are too many people out there that don’t believe that this is the Broncos division with relative ease. They are by far the best team in the AFC west and arguably in the AFC as a whole. The AFC West sent three teams to the playoffs in 2013, I believe that part was a bit of a fluke, this season might net two, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was just one.

Denver Broncos 2014 Projection: 14-2
2013 Record: 13-3

The Broncos are coming off a disappointing and embarrassing Super Bowl loss; they have a chip on their shoulder going into the 2014 season. I believe they will be more impressive this season overall, I don’t believe they will break their offensive records from last year as the improvements on the defensive side of the ball will allow them to take their feet of the gas in a lot more games than they did in 2013. The Broncos get Ryan Clady and Von Miller back, two of their best players that missed a considerable amount of time last season.

Not only do they get these multiple time pro bowlers back, but they went out and got some big name players to bolster their defense that struggled quite a bit last season. Aqib Talib is an upgrade from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Talib got his first pro bowl selection last year after a very solid season with the New England Patriots. They also got DeMarcus Ware, a 32 year old 7 time pro bowler who missed his first 3 games in his 9th season. Some concerns with his age but so far in the preseason Ware looks to still be very capable, and set up opposite of Von Miller, they are potentially one of the most effective pass rushing duos in the league. They also landed T.J Ward who started all 16 games last season and finished with 123 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 10 passes defended. This hard hitting safety is expected to make a huge impact in the 2014 season.

The offense getting Ryan Clady back will be a huge plus, after a season of breaking offensive records they get back their best blocker, not too shabby. They lost Eric Decker who was one of Peyton’s favorite targets last season, but his replacement is just as, if not more impressive. Emmanuel Sanders looked very impressive in the Broncos 3rd preseason game, he dove catching the ball and rolling into the end zone for a 29 yard score, and took off for a 67 yard touchdown, and also hauled in a few others, he finished with 5 receptions for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns.

X-Factor – DeMarcus Ware needs to step up and lead the defense to new heights this season. I don’t think there is much question that the Broncos offense will be one of the better ones in the league. The defense has a lot of room for improvement and Manning will put them out front early in a lot of games this season. Once they are out front and the opposing teams are put in a position to have to pass to catch up Ware and the defense will be called on to shut the game down, I believe he will be up for the challenge.

San Diego Chargers 2014 Projection: 9-7
2013 Record: 9-7

The Chargers always seem to have a good looking team when you look at it on paper, but once the season starts they seem to always disappoint their fans with subpar seasons. Their offense was solid as usual, but their passing defense surrendered a very generous 96.4 QB rating to opposing quarterbacks. They went out and got Brandon Flowers who spent all of his previous seasons with division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. Flowers will be a very solid addition, one of the better corners in the league, but he isn’t going to solve the problem by himself.

Phillip Rivers always handles business, and he had one of his better seasons last season that landed him in the Pro Bowl. He will continue to contribute just fine but they only made the playoffs with their 9-7 record because they managed to come back against the Chiefs in week 17 in order to nab up the 6th and last seed in the playoffs. I think their normal start slow finish strong approach they seem to know and love will have them on the outside looking in at the playoffs this season.

The Chargers had a -4 turnover margin; turnover margin is often overlooked, but is one of the most important stats. Nothing deflates an offense more or turns a game’s momentum around more than handing the opposing team a short field and the ball in their hands.

X-Factor – Brandon Flowers has been playing strongly for the Chiefs secondary for several years now. He comes over to the Chargers and will be asked to lead this defense to become a whole lot better if they are going to amount to anything this season. Flowers should shut down his side of the field and open the opportunity for double coverage on the other side or an extra defender to be available to blitz which is something they didn’t necessarily have last season.

Kansas City Chiefs 2014 Projection: 6-10
2013 Record:  11-5

The Kansas City Chiefs 2013 season success was partially contributed to their soft schedule that their defense was able to take complete advantage of. Their schedule won’t be as kind to them this season, they get to play Seattle, San Francisco, and New England to name a few non-division games that will be tough on them.

Their defense was a big part of their success last season. The loss of Brandon Flowers this season will certainly be felt; he has been a building block for this defense for the last six years and won’t be replaced easily. They need to play a lot more like they did at the beginning of last year with some consistency if they want to have a decent season.

Jamaal Charles is and will continue to be the most important piece of their offensive success. He had 1,980 all-purpose yards in 2013. They have lost their 21 of their starts at offensive line in Brandon Albert (T), Geoff Schwartz (G), and Jon Asamoah (G). Replacing Albert whom I talked about in his new role with the Dolphins will prove to be difficult, however, the biggest impact I think is how the new offensive line will have to learn to work together. So far, through 3 preseason games the first team offense is struggling immensely.

X-Factor – Jamaal Charles is coming off of an explosive season and should have another productive season despite the offensive line turmoil. He will have to have an MVP season for the Chiefs to make the playoffs again this season. When Charles gets some open space he is arguably the best candidate to make the defense pay.

Oakland Raiders – 2014 Projection: 4-12
2013 Record:  4-12

The Oakland Raiders are one of my first overall pick nominees for the 2015 season as I suspect them to struggle more than they did in a dismal 2013 season. Four wins may actually be a generous projection but the Raiders seem to have a few anomalies every season and I think they will pull a couple of wins out of nowhere.

One of the Raider’s biggest struggles was their passing offense; this is attributed to bad quarterback play. As talked about before in some of my previous articles, consistency at quarterback can make or in the Raiders case break them. They have had 17 quarterbacks start a game since 1999 ranks them near the top of the league in most quarterbacks to start over that span. Again they will start a new season with a new starting quarterback, Matt Schaub. Schaub was coming off of 5 straight seasons of having a QB rating over 90 going into the 2013 season, he landed a dismal 73 QB rating last season. It is understandable that the Raiders believe that could be a fluke, however, Schaub confidence seems to be rattled as he can’t seem to gain any sort of momentum in the preseason. This could also be attributed to a subpar receiving corps, but this isn’t a good sign either way for the Raider’s chances in 2014.

X-Factor – Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off of a career low 3.4 yards per carry in 2013. This could be more of an indication of how terrible the Jaguars passing game is and how much defenses got to focus on the ground game than MJD no longer having what it takes. In limited action, the 29 year old MJD looks to be just as fast and elusive as ever and could be in for a resurgence in 2014 which would be uplifting to a Raiders team that otherwise will be most likely drafting the first overall pick in 2015.

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Deutsche Bank Championship Fantasy Preview

One down, three to go. Hunter Mahan capped off his late-season run with a bang. Just like that, he’s on top of the FedExCup standings. Fear not, as it’s still anyone’s game to win. The goal for most players this week will be to make it inside the top 70, so they can advance to the BMW Championship at Cherry Hills. Those closer to the top, will be targeting a move toward a top 5 position in the FEC standings, so they can control their own destiny when the TOUR Championship rolls around.

This week, we head to Norton, Massachusetts. No way I will ever be able to spell MA without spell-check, sorry. The course is TPC Boston which is a par 71 track that plays up to 7,216 yards. The greens are bentgrass and only run to about 11.5 on the stimp. Slow greens which are almost exactly TOUR average in size. The fairways are wider are wider than TOUR average. All these factors combined to make for a rather easy test of golf. The average score relative to par has been 1-under or lower in three of the past five years. EASY PEASY.

Correlated Stats

Adjusted Scoring: This is always a good one, and this week is no exception. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: Been one of my favorites all year, but now it’s an official stat published on PGATOUR.com. This stat trumps SGP in relevance about eight times outta 10. Example: Greg Chalmers will never been #1 in SG:T2G.

Bogey Avoidance: Taking a look at the 38 players who have finished in the top 10 here recently, only three were outside the top 100 in bogey avoidance. The average rank of the top 10s here has been 39th while the average rank of the missed cuts here has been 90th. Sorry Ernie, Garrigus, Choi, Kaymer, things are not looking good for you. Par 4 Scoring Average: Always relevant.

Approaches and/or GIR from 150-200 yards: The way the course sets up, about half of each golfer’s shots will come from 150-200 yards, nine per round. Only one of the par 5s is really unreachable, so that leaves plenty of scoring opportunities at the other two.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

WGC Cadillac – Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose

Byron Nelson – Brendon Todd, Sang-moon Bae, Jason Dufner

Travelers – Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke, Marc Leishman

Humana Challenge – Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson

The Greenbrier - Angel Cabrera, Jonas Blixt, Ted Potter Jr.

A major component of these courses is the width of their fairways in the 250-300 yard range. They all start off wider than average. The greens run pretty slow, with all five running at 12 or less. Patrick Reed finds himself on the winner’s list twice. That shows you what kind of upside he brings this week. Leishman is a course horse on three of the five tracks, as is Bill Haas.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy: He came out uninspired last Thursday, but got back on track to backdoor a top 25. Now he gets a course where he’s won on previously. He’s a man on a mission, setting out to prove he’s THE MAN in golf.

Jordan Spieth: Not bad for Mr. Under Armour last week, but he can do better. That 22nd place was actually his worst finish in his five-tournament FedExCup Playoffs career. Pressure means nothing to this youngster. He’s the real deal, and will be expecting a top 10 this week. Five of his last seven tournaments played on easy courses have yielded top 10s, including his win at the John Deere Classic.

Brandt Snedeker: What a letdown last week was. Very surprising, but I think his game is still in good shape, and his winning pedigree has gone too long without a win. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him climb back into the winner’s circle this week and secure his Ryder Cup spot.

Ian Poulter: Poulter is officially a turd after last week. Now that he’s let everyone down again, it’s time for him to throw in a top 10 just to mess with people, right? I’ve got him outside my top 25 this week, but not by much.

Rickie Fowler: It’s been an incredible run for Rickie lately, but I’m still not as high as everyone else on him. Sure, he’s still in my top 15 again, but there’s no way I’m overpaying for him. His value has far exceeded his true skill level. I swear I don’t hate the guy, I actually like Rickie, but I will let him have a bad tournament or two before I re-invest.

Cameron Tringale: You know what they say, “You are the average of the five people you spend the most time around.” Well, Fowler appears to be rubbing off on his good buddy Tringale. Last week, we saw foresaw some success due to his course horsedom at a very correlated Riviera CC. This week, he hasn’t jumped out at me yet. I wouldn’t expect another top 10 this week, a 40-50th place finish is more likely.

David Hearn: A lot of the Northeastern U.S. guys did well when they traveled up to Montreal for the RBC Canadian Open. Maybe it will work the other way around, and Hearn will enjoy some success this week. #RegionGolf

Keegan Bradley: Expectations were at their highest last time out and he let everyone down. As a frontrunner for the Ryder Cup pick, this could be the week he secures his spot… Wrote that last week and it still rings true. Time to put up or shut up for Keegan, and a home game is the perfect opportunity to shine.

Luke Donald: He’s been a mess in the second half of the season, but class is permanent.In his last five trips to TPC Boston, he’s gained 13.16 strokes on the green. If he can dial in from 175, he has the flat stick to make plenty of birdies.

Patrick Reed: The man I love to fade. He’s right up there in Angel Cabrera and Louis Oosthuizen territory. You can back him 10 times and get three great returns, one or two mediocre, and five terrible finishes. I’m willing to sacrifice the three great returns in order to avoid the five terrible outings. This is actually a decent week for him as far as the course setup goes, so he actually made my top 25 unlike most weeks. However, I still think there is too much risk to take in many formats. The upside is always there, though, so throw him on some GPP lineups over at DraftKings.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Deutsche Bank Championship

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Adam Scott

4. Jordan Spieth

5. Jason Day

6. Jim Furyk

7. Henrik Stenson

8. Phil Mickelson

9. Brandt Snedeker

10. Zach Johnson

11. Charl Schwartzel

12. Keegan Bradley

13. Bill Haas

14. Rickie Fowler

15. Hideki Matsuyama

16. Luke Donald

17. Hunter Mahan

18. Webb Simpson

19. Marc Leishman

20. Jimmy Walker

21. Ryan Moore

22. Bubba Watson

23. Gary Woodland

24. Patrick Reed

25. Graham DeLaet

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Fantasy Golf Contests

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Deutsche Bank Championship – DraftKings Edition

Let’s keep this intro short people. Time is our ally. I don’t want to waste your time with a boring introduction about nothing. Too late! I just did. Suckers. Anyways, here are some lineup combinations you should ponder for this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship, held at TPC Boston.

Follow the Form

William McGirt ($6,800) 5th-8th-25th

Ernie Els ($7,600) 5th-64th-7th-26th-12th

Bill Hass ($8,300) 15th-2nd-27th-41st

Hunter Mahan ($8,300) 1st-7th-15th-101st

Brandt Snedeker ($8,600) 80th-5th-13th-12th-25th

Look at these guys! Swingin’ the hot sticks just in time for the Playoffs. McGirt is coming off back-to-back top 10s, do you really see yourself saying three straight top 10s for McGirt? Eeek not likely. But that price doesn’t require a top 10 to reach value. A lot of good golf played recently. With $9700 left for your final spot, Fowler/Kuch/Furyk/Phil are all viable options.

Easy Peezy

Robert Garrigus ($4,900) Top 25s on eight of last 11 Easy Courses.

Zach Johnson ($7,500) Top 10s on six of last 11 Easy Courses, including two wins.

Ryan Moore ($7,100) Top 10s on seven of last 12 Easy Courses.

Rory McIlroy ($12,300) Top 10s in two of last three Easy Courses, including win.

Jordan Spieth ($8,800) Top 10s in five of last eight Easy Courses, including win.

These golfers can go low and make enough birdies to win a shootout. Easy course is defined in my book as any week where the average score relative to par is -1.00 or lower. Garrigus opens up a ton of cap-space here. An alternate route would be to swap Garrigus with a more “sure-thing” and take a balanced approach. That would prolly require you to remove Rory though. With $9400 left on this lineup, I think you can afford to take a chance on Garrigus.

Course Horse-tory

John Senden ($6,400) 12th-21st-8th-11th-33rd

Brandt Snedeker ($8,600) 47th-6th-3rd-5th-32nd-27th

Angel Cabrera ($6,300) 76th-18th-4th-15th

Jason Day ($9,800) 13th-51st-3rd-2nd-19th-50th

Jim Furyk ($9,500) 27th-13th-6th-37th-8th-7th

Wow, that’s a sexy team! There is a ton of firepower here, as they’ve all won on the PGA TOUR and have all done plenty of good at TPC Boston. Most are even playing great golf at the moment. It’s hard not to like this team’s chances this week. At $9,400 remaining, give Phil, Spieth, Charl, or even Keegan a look.

Handpicked Value Plays

Marc Leishman ($7,000): Frequent readers might be saying “WHAT! You’ve been hatin’ on Leishman for weeks now”… Longtime readers know that’s not the case. I have backed the Aussie many times this year, but then his price escalated and I backed off recently. Now he’s back at a juicy price and I’m ready to hop back on the Leish. He’s 5-for-5 at TPC Boston, and all five years have yielded positive SGP numbers. Considering he’s have a career-year, he should be able to combine those putting numbers with great approach stats to find his way into contention this week.

Daniel Summerhays ($5,500): Never Summerhays Ale was hovering at the top of the leaderboard last Thursday, just like he’s done for much of the season. He’s missed just five cuts on the season and his game sets up nicely for a shootout. Proof: He’s earned top 25s in six of his last seven events played on an easy course. At $5,500 you are getting a bargain.

Freddie Jacobson ($5,900): It’s not a perfect setup for a grinder like Jacobson who likes to hack his way around the course, but his flat stick gets along nicely with the greens at TPC Boston. His last six trips have all yielded positive SGP numbers (even his missed cut). I usually prefer the opposite as anyone can hot get with the putter if they put themselves in the right places, but sometimes it’s nice to have that security that your golfer won’t be three-putting his way to a missed cut. I think Freddie gets back on track this week with a cut made and potential top 25.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

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The Colts and The Other Guys: AFC South Predictions

The only formidable team to come out of the AFC South in 2013 was the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are the only team with a QB who is the franchise guy and is a guarantee to be the starter for the next several seasons barring any unforeseen circumstances. This comes with consistency that the other teams from the AFC South will not have, also the rest are coming off sub .500 seasons.

To give you an idea how important a consistent starter at QB can be, the top 4 teams with the least different starting QBs since 1999 are the Patriots (3), Colts (5), Giants (5), and the Packers (5). That correlates into the following number of playoff appearances since 1999, Patriots with 11, and 3 SB wins, Colts with 13, and 1 SB win, Giants with 7, and 2 SB wins, and Packers with 10, and 1 SB win.

On the flip side of that coin, the 4 teams with the most starting QBs since 1999 are the Browns (20), Dolphins (18), Bears (17), and Raiders (17). That translates into playoff appearances in that timeframe as follows, Browns with 1, Dolphins with 4, Bears with 4, and Raiders with 3. If the Colts lose the division then they will and should be extremely disappointed.

Indianapolis Colts 2014 Projection: 12-4
2013 Record: 11-5

The Indianapolis Colts are the only team in the NFL that swept their division and they should be able to handle that again this season. With Andrew Luck having another season of experience under his belt, he should be able to continue to ascend to greater heights. The Colts’ ability to keep the ball secure had them with a +13 turnover margin (3rd in the NFL), and with a second year QB that is pretty impressive. Luck only threw nine picks, backing it up with 23 TDs; add in a stud wide receiver and another year he will be looking to improve those numbers.

The Colts went out and got Luck a very solid go-to guy, the Andrew Luck to Hakeem Nicks hook up could become one of the best in the league. Hakeem Nicks is still young enough (26) to be the number one guy in Indy for years to come.

Their defense was mediocre in 2013, but they signed D’Qwell Jackson whose sure tackling should shore up some of the holes that their defense had last year. He is a linebacker that has started every game for the last 3 seasons amassing 100+ tackles each season and threw in a handful of sacks, forced fumbles, and a few picks across that span as well.

X-Factor – Hakeem Nicks is worth mentioning again as he should be a game changer for the Colts. He has to step up and be the type of go to guy he was for Eli Manning in 2010 and 2011, catching 75+ balls each of those seasons and over 1,000 yards receiving in each of those seasons. The Giants had a Super Bowl victory in 2011 and he was a big part of that run, if Nicks plays the way he can then he hasn’t seen his last run deep into the playoffs.

Houston Texans 2014 Projection: 9-7
2013 Record: 2-14

This is my boldest call in the AFC South, after a dismal season that generated the first overall pick, Jadeveon Clowney, I believe they may be putting the pieces together to have a solid season to build off. They sent Matt Schaub packing after throwing 10 TDs and 14 INTs last season in eight starts; he is now the Oakland Raider’s problem. Many of those interceptions were the ill-advised kind that results in an easy defensive touchdown, which will deflate even some of the best teams in the league. While Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t known for his superior accuracy or overall talent at the position, I believe they will ask him to simply manage games with short, simple passes, and toss up a few long ones to Andre Johnson from time to time. He has been struggling in the preseason but this is a whole new set of surroundings for him and it can take some adjusting.

Clowney will bring terror to the opposite side of the field that J.J Watt takes care of business on. This pass rushing duo has to be one of the scariest in the game at this point, even though Clowney hasn’t played a regular season snap yet, he really seems capable of playing the part of one the more disruptive defensive ends in the game. If they can play really strong defensively and have an offense that at least doesn’t turn the ball over constantly, they came in last place in the 2013 season with a -20 turnover margin, they can put together a formidable season. Seeing that they play Jacksonville, and Tennessee twice, on top of some easy matchups against Washington, Oakland, and Cleveland, they have easily winnable games against these foes. All they need to do is a steal a few games here and there against some of the more solid teams in order to get up in that .500 region.

X-Factor – Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to find some consistency and not take a ton of chances for the Texans to be formidable this season. He has the potential to be a solid, above average quarterback, and that is all they really need from him to have a decent season. I am sure that the Houston faithful wouldn’t mind if he brought along some of his “Fitzmagic” that the Buffalo Bills fans got a taste of from time to time, this is a nickname he received for manufacturing some incredible comebacks in his time in Buffalo.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2014 Projection: 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Record:  4-12

I have no doubt that the moves that are being made are going to make a lot brighter of a future for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars went and got Blake Bortles with their number one pick, and used their 2nd and 3rd picks to nab up wide outs for him to throw to. Bortles is looking the part for the future of their organization in the preseason, although they haven’t handed him the reigns of the offense officially for week 1 yet. I believe there is a solid chance they will if he keeps performing this way in preseason. Even if he does not start the season as the 1st string, it won’t be long. There will be a lot more hope and a lot more to watch for the Jaguars fans but I don’t think it translates into a big increase in wins for this season.

They have no proven running back at this time on their roster, Toby Gerhart comes in after years of backing up Adrian Peterson and has no experience as the go-to guy. That doesn’t mean that he can’t be great, as he was pretty solid as a backup in his time in Minnesota.

Defensively, the Jaguars have a lot of holes to fill; they allowed opposing quarterbacks a 96.5 QB rating, allowing 29 passing TDs and 11 INTs. Their run defense wasn’t any better, allowing for 131.8 yards per game, and 20 rushing TDs. They haven’t made any additions to improve this porous defense and while some of the positive momentum of hope in Jacksonville may help them improve, their defense will be the reason they don’t rise in the standings.

X-Factor – Allen Hurns is an undrafted free agent rookie, not usually a recipe for a stand out wide receiver. This young man has ascended from going undrafted to being pegged as a starter in week 1. That takes a lot of hard work when most draft analysts said he won’t hack it in the NFL despite his success in college. If he continues to be as sure-handed and putting in the work after the catch then he will help Blake Bortles get a few extra confidence boosting wins.

Tennessee Titans – 2014 Projection: 3-13
2013 Record:  7-9

Replacing two of their key players they lost in Chris Johnson and Alterraun Verner will prove to be very difficult. In his first 3 seasons Jake Locker has proven to be a solid quarterback with potential to get better. This was with Chris Johnson to draw a lot of the attention away from him, as well as being able to dump the ball to him and let him do a bunch of the work after the catch. Between that loss and Locker’s inability to stay healthy and no reliable backups there will be a considerable drop in offensive production. I don’t even see Ken Whisenhunt being able to aid this offense in becoming decent this season.

The Titans are changing their defensive scheme from the 4-3 to the 3-4 and the statistics are not lining up for this to be a successful switch. They can’t seem to tackle or stop anyone from marching down the field on them. The hole that Alterraun Verner left will surely be felt, his 5 interceptions and 22 passes defensed will be hard to replace.

X-Factor – Michael Griffin has been a solid safety for the Titans. He is a sure tackler, a ball hawk, and he has also forced two fumbles in each of the past two seasons. Griffin needs to keep his consistent contributions and continue to lead this now changing defense, they will need to be solid to make up for the lacking offense in order to save this season.

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DraftKings Week 1: QB’s and RB’s that should be on your radar

The time has come for me to begin my positional breakdown series featuring Draftkings salaries for Week 1. Given that we’re still a couple weeks away, I’ll start with QB’s and RB’s this week and follow it up with WR’s, TE’s & defenses leading up to the start of the season. So what do say? Let’s jump in with some QB’s I’ll be targeting Week 1.

Quarterbacks:

Nick Foles, Eagles ($8,500): I’ll be honest, Nick Foles has not looked good this preseason but its impossible to ignore his match up Week 1. Foles and the Eagles kickoff their 2014 campaign vs the Jacksonville Jaguars who gave up the fifth most fantasy points to QB’s last season. Foles lost DeSean Jackson this off season but Jeremy Maclin is back and they’ve added Darren Sproles to the mix. Having said this, use Foles with caution as this easily could be a blowout causing some concern.

Andrew Luck, Colts ($8,400): Luck and the Colts open up on the road vs the Denver Broncos. The Broncos gave up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QB’s last season. Speaking of last season, Luck put up an impressive line vs the Broncos in their only match up: 228/3 passing and 29/1 rushing good for 30.02 fantasy points. We know Peyton Manning will certainly be motivated vs his old team so I can easily see some points being scored in a potential shootout. Its also worth noting that Coach Pagano has stated he plans to go heavy in the passing game.

Geno Smith, Jets ($6,500): If you’re looking to go cheap at QB Week 1, look no further than Geno Smith. The Jets draw the Oakland Raiders at home Week 1 and the Raiders just so happen to give up the third most fantasy point to QB’s last season. Smith has a few promising young WR’s on the outside that will help stretch the field allowing Smith to rack up fantasy points for fantasy owners looking to pay up on other positions.

Running Backs:

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs ($9,000) Or LeSean McCoy, Eagles ($8,400): Both Charles and McCoy draw dream match ups week one but they will both come at top dollar. Charles and the Chiefs open up at home against a Tennessee Titans defense that gave up the third most fantasy points to RB’s last season. Like Charles, McCoy is also home against the Jaguars who gave up the eighth-most fantasy points to RB’s last year. Fitting just one of the two in a line up Week 1 will be a challenge but those who do will be very happy with the result.

The Barclays Fantasy Preview

Let’s head on up to Jersey to see what’s cracking at The Barclays this week. Played on a rotating schedule, this year it heads back to Ridgewood Country Club. Also the site of the 2008 and 2010 Barclays. Start your course history research with those two years. The course is a par 71 while measuring just over 7,300 yards. A large portion (25%) of that yardage is consumed on the three par 5s alone. Eliminate those nasty holes from the equation and this course is actually on the shorter side of things, on a hole-by-hole basis.

What else can we say about Ridgewood? The green surfaces are bentgrass, and also tiny, measuring just 4,800 square feet on average. Those are some of the smallest on TOUR, putting a premium on proximity to hole and/or scrambling. The rough around these parts is generally pretty tall and nasty, so I would prefer an accurate driver if I had the choice. Here we go! -Mario

Correlated Stats

Don’t be foolish and try to grab relevant stats based on two years of Ridgewood CC play. Take the safe route and look at adjusted scoring, strokes gained-T2G, and par 4 scoring average.

The par 5s are treacherous and won’t be reached in two by many. Looking at distance to pin from 2010, I found the average distance to pin after a tee shot was 193 yards. Take away the three par 5s and that shrunk down to 170 yards. That means the majority of the approach shots will be from 150-200 yard range, but overall the course tests every club in the bag.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

Northern Trust – Bubba Watson, John Merrick, Bill Haas

PLAYERS – Martin Kaymer, Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar

Deutsche Bank – Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson

St. Jude Classic – Ben Crane, Harris English, Dustin Johnson

the Memorial - Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods

These courses all have tighter-than-average fairway widths. Most are played against a strong field on similar length courses. THE PLAYERS has very similar green sizes, if that tickles your fancy. Northern Trust is almost identical in all facets (par, bent/poa, green size, stimp, field strength, fairway width). Take a hard look at Riviera Country Club as a tiebreaker.

Players to Watch

Rory McIlroy: If you need me to explain why he should be on your radar, you probably don’t watch golf, or any sports. He’s the hottest golfer on the planet, and certainly due for a letdown. That being said, we have no clue what is going on inside his head right now. How motivated is he to finish off the FedExCup with a bang now that he just grabbed a couple majors? We are about to find out, but it’s hard to leave him off any team unless it’s a salary-cap format.

Phil Mickelson: Phil finally landed a top 10 last time out and has three top 20s in his seven-start Barclays career. He’s a course horse at Riviera, one of our top correlated courses. It’d be such a Phil thing to do running off a couple wins in the Playoffs after posting just one top 10 during the season.

Jordan Spieth: What is going on with the wonder-kid? Outside the top 35 in each of his past three starts. It’s amazing that this deserves mentioning even though he’s 21 years old. Give the kid some slack, and look for the rebound this week. The tight layout should set up nicely for him.

Henrik Stenson: Another golfer who should enjoy the tight layout with small greens. Stenson is one of the few on TOUR that can bombard every fairway and pepper the greens hole-after-hole. If his putter is halfway decent this week, look for the Swede to contend.

K.J. Choi:I’ve fallen victim to Choi a couple times in the past month, but now he is super cheap and I may get back on board. He finished T12 here back in 2008 and has four top 15s at Riviera (#1 corr course) since 2008. Something seems off, but I’m willing to give him a chance on a few lineups.

Brandt Snedeker: One of the hottest on TOUR right now. This is the Sneds we’re used to seeing. His Ridgewood history is not good, a MC and T68 to his name. I expect him to improve upon that in a big-way as he continues his push for the Ryder Cup Captain’s pick.

Hunter Mahan: On the outside looking in for a Ryder Cup pick. His recent play is intriguing but it may be too late unless he goes hard this week. I’m expecting a continuation of his recent form as he tries to impress Captain Watson. His last two at Ridgewood were both 31st place shares.

Ian Poulter: Another guy looking to prove his Ryder Cup worth. Everyone knows it’d be ludicrous to omit Poults from the Euro team, but a wonky performance this week would make things interesting. His form was off for most of the year, so he better prove his worth this week.

Riviera Course Horses: I mentioned the similarities above in the Correlated Courses section, but here are a few Riviera horses to boost this week: Choi, Mickelson, Holmes, Sergio, Tringale, Stadler, Jimmmmy Walker, Lucas Donald, Keegan, and Webb Simps.

Rickie Fowler: Sure he’s playing fantastic golf, but I have troubles putting his expectations anywhere near the top 5. That is how he’s being valued around the industry. This is one of those educated fades due to him being overvalued at the moment.

Keegan Bradley: Expectations were at their highest last time out and he let everyone down. As a frontrunner for the Ryder Cup pick, this could be the week he secures his spot.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Barclays

1. Rory Mcilroy

2. Jim Furyk

3. Adam Scott

4. Henrik Stenson

5. Sergio Garcia

6. Justin Rose

7. Jason Day

8. Brandt Snedeker

9. Phil Mickelson

10. Matt Kuchar

11. Jordan Spieth

12. Charl Schwartzel

13. Hunter Mahan

14. Rickie Fowler

15. Jimmy Walker

16. Bubba Watson

17. Ryan Moore

18. Bill Haas

19. Lee Westwood

20. Nick Watney

21. Keegan Bradley

22. Webb Simpson

23. Zach Johnson

24. Hideki Matsuyama

25. Luke Donald

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Barclays Contest to win $7K

Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

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Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

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The Barclays – DraftKings Edition

On the road all weekend, I didn’t have any time to watch last week unfold at the Wyndham Championship, but I returned home to see very favorable results. Other than my sleeper Rafael Cabrera-Bello who turned out to be a dud, it was a great week. Fading Hicks and Reed turned out just fine and taking a chance on recent W/Ds David Toms and Camilo Villegas turned out rather nicely.

I’m not just talking about me, though, I want to give a shout out to friend of the blog, anteup11, who took down his first GPP on DraftKings. Using last week’s Donald Ross design team as his core, he threw Brooks Koepka in their as his sixth and it paid off. Let’s see if we can do it again this week!

Follow the Form

Justin Hicks ($6,100) 57th-2nd-3rd

Marc Leishman ($8,200) 47th-3rd-5th

Charl Schwartzel ($9,200) 15th-4th-43rd-7th

Graeme McDowell ($9,100) 47th-8th-9th-9th

Brandt Snedeker ($9,600) 5th-13th-12th-25th

You’re missing out on some of the big guns with this lineup, including the hottest golfer in the world, Rory. However, the price just didn’t fit so we instead went with a very balanced approach. Hicks and Leishman have been grooving it lately, and they will be the wildcards determining the success of this team.

Jersey Boys

Graham DeLaet ($8,300) Top 10s in 2 of 5 NY/NJ events.

Rory Sabbatini ($5,600) Top 25s in seven of last 10 NY/NJ events.

Ian Poulter ($7,500) Top 25s in five of last nine NY/NJ events.

Webb Simpson ($8,700) Top 25s in five of last eight NY/NJ events.

Jason Day ($9,700) Top 25s in six of last eight NY/NJ events.

This team is going to take a shot at region golf. New York and New Jersey are unique areas for golf, especially when you factor in the rowdy crowds. It takes a particular mindset to continue to thrive here. Graham is the hit-or-miss option with all the upside in the world, while the other four have been steady in this region. You’ll even have $10.2K left for your final spot which would be perfect to fit Jimmy Furyk in there, but Phil or Rickie aren’t bad options, either.

Course Horse-tory

Kevin Streelman ($7,700) 3rd-4th

Paul Casey ($8,000) 12th-7th

Rory Sabbatini ($5,600) 5th-24th

Jason Day ($9,700) 5th-31st

Bubba Watson ($9,400) 31st-12th

This team is not for the risk-averse. We’re dealing with small samples here, but I went for the Ridgewood CC history team here. The last time we played here was 2010 and 2008 so it’s not exactly recent history. Regardless, this gives you a decent squad with high upside and nearly $10K leftover for your sixth golfer. Not bad.

Handpicked Value Plays

Bill Haas ($7,200): He’s no stranger to FedExCup success and is coming off a runner-up finish last week at the Wyndham. This price is incredibly low for a golf who has made 23-of-24 cuts on the season with just one W/D thrown in there. He finished 47th and 55th the last two times at this venue, and I think that is floor this week, with a much higher ceiling. Great salary-saver this week.

Ian Poulter ($7,500): It’d be odd to see him not get picked as a European captain’s pick, but he still has a lot to prove to himself and the team. After a somewhat average season, it’s time for him to put up or shut up. With plenty of New Jersey success in the past and clutch play in his blood, this should be a good week for Poults to make him presence known.

Charley Hoffman ($6,300): He’s been off the map during major-season, but now he returns to our radar at a venue he’s played twice before with some moderate success. In 2008 he finished 38th and came in 24th just two years later. The man has five top 10s on the season while missing cuts in just three of 22 events. That’s a good combination of upside and safeness.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

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