AFC West Projections
I will start by saying I have been, and will always be, a Broncos fan. I try to not be biased in my writing due to this fact. That being said I don’t think there are too many people out there that don’t believe that this is the Broncos division with relative ease. They are by far the best team in the AFC west and arguably in the AFC as a whole. The AFC West sent three teams to the playoffs in 2013, I believe that part was a bit of a fluke, this season might net two, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was just one.
Denver Broncos 2014 Projection: 14-2
2013 Record: 13-3
The Broncos are coming off a disappointing and embarrassing Super Bowl loss; they have a chip on their shoulder going into the 2014 season. I believe they will be more impressive this season overall, I don’t believe they will break their offensive records from last year as the improvements on the defensive side of the ball will allow them to take their feet of the gas in a lot more games than they did in 2013. The Broncos get Ryan Clady and Von Miller back, two of their best players that missed a considerable amount of time last season.
Not only do they get these multiple time pro bowlers back, but they went out and got some big name players to bolster their defense that struggled quite a bit last season. Aqib Talib is an upgrade from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Talib got his first pro bowl selection last year after a very solid season with the New England Patriots. They also got DeMarcus Ware, a 32 year old 7 time pro bowler who missed his first 3 games in his 9th season. Some concerns with his age but so far in the preseason Ware looks to still be very capable, and set up opposite of Von Miller, they are potentially one of the most effective pass rushing duos in the league. They also landed T.J Ward who started all 16 games last season and finished with 123 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 10 passes defended. This hard hitting safety is expected to make a huge impact in the 2014 season.
The offense getting Ryan Clady back will be a huge plus, after a season of breaking offensive records they get back their best blocker, not too shabby. They lost Eric Decker who was one of Peyton’s favorite targets last season, but his replacement is just as, if not more impressive. Emmanuel Sanders looked very impressive in the Broncos 3rd preseason game, he dove catching the ball and rolling into the end zone for a 29 yard score, and took off for a 67 yard touchdown, and also hauled in a few others, he finished with 5 receptions for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns.
X-Factor – DeMarcus Ware needs to step up and lead the defense to new heights this season. I don’t think there is much question that the Broncos offense will be one of the better ones in the league. The defense has a lot of room for improvement and Manning will put them out front early in a lot of games this season. Once they are out front and the opposing teams are put in a position to have to pass to catch up Ware and the defense will be called on to shut the game down, I believe he will be up for the challenge.
San Diego Chargers 2014 Projection: 9-7
2013 Record: 9-7
The Chargers always seem to have a good looking team when you look at it on paper, but once the season starts they seem to always disappoint their fans with subpar seasons. Their offense was solid as usual, but their passing defense surrendered a very generous 96.4 QB rating to opposing quarterbacks. They went out and got Brandon Flowers who spent all of his previous seasons with division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. Flowers will be a very solid addition, one of the better corners in the league, but he isn’t going to solve the problem by himself.
Phillip Rivers always handles business, and he had one of his better seasons last season that landed him in the Pro Bowl. He will continue to contribute just fine but they only made the playoffs with their 9-7 record because they managed to come back against the Chiefs in week 17 in order to nab up the 6th and last seed in the playoffs. I think their normal start slow finish strong approach they seem to know and love will have them on the outside looking in at the playoffs this season.
The Chargers had a -4 turnover margin; turnover margin is often overlooked, but is one of the most important stats. Nothing deflates an offense more or turns a game’s momentum around more than handing the opposing team a short field and the ball in their hands.
X-Factor – Brandon Flowers has been playing strongly for the Chiefs secondary for several years now. He comes over to the Chargers and will be asked to lead this defense to become a whole lot better if they are going to amount to anything this season. Flowers should shut down his side of the field and open the opportunity for double coverage on the other side or an extra defender to be available to blitz which is something they didn’t necessarily have last season.
Kansas City Chiefs 2014 Projection: 6-10
2013 Record: 11-5
The Kansas City Chiefs 2013 season success was partially contributed to their soft schedule that their defense was able to take complete advantage of. Their schedule won’t be as kind to them this season, they get to play Seattle, San Francisco, and New England to name a few non-division games that will be tough on them.
Their defense was a big part of their success last season. The loss of Brandon Flowers this season will certainly be felt; he has been a building block for this defense for the last six years and won’t be replaced easily. They need to play a lot more like they did at the beginning of last year with some consistency if they want to have a decent season.
Jamaal Charles is and will continue to be the most important piece of their offensive success. He had 1,980 all-purpose yards in 2013. They have lost their 21 of their starts at offensive line in Brandon Albert (T), Geoff Schwartz (G), and Jon Asamoah (G). Replacing Albert whom I talked about in his new role with the Dolphins will prove to be difficult, however, the biggest impact I think is how the new offensive line will have to learn to work together. So far, through 3 preseason games the first team offense is struggling immensely.
X-Factor – Jamaal Charles is coming off of an explosive season and should have another productive season despite the offensive line turmoil. He will have to have an MVP season for the Chiefs to make the playoffs again this season. When Charles gets some open space he is arguably the best candidate to make the defense pay.
Oakland Raiders – 2014 Projection: 4-12
2013 Record: 4-12
The Oakland Raiders are one of my first overall pick nominees for the 2015 season as I suspect them to struggle more than they did in a dismal 2013 season. Four wins may actually be a generous projection but the Raiders seem to have a few anomalies every season and I think they will pull a couple of wins out of nowhere.
One of the Raider’s biggest struggles was their passing offense; this is attributed to bad quarterback play. As talked about before in some of my previous articles, consistency at quarterback can make or in the Raiders case break them. They have had 17 quarterbacks start a game since 1999 ranks them near the top of the league in most quarterbacks to start over that span. Again they will start a new season with a new starting quarterback, Matt Schaub. Schaub was coming off of 5 straight seasons of having a QB rating over 90 going into the 2013 season, he landed a dismal 73 QB rating last season. It is understandable that the Raiders believe that could be a fluke, however, Schaub confidence seems to be rattled as he can’t seem to gain any sort of momentum in the preseason. This could also be attributed to a subpar receiving corps, but this isn’t a good sign either way for the Raider’s chances in 2014.
X-Factor – Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off of a career low 3.4 yards per carry in 2013. This could be more of an indication of how terrible the Jaguars passing game is and how much defenses got to focus on the ground game than MJD no longer having what it takes. In limited action, the 29 year old MJD looks to be just as fast and elusive as ever and could be in for a resurgence in 2014 which would be uplifting to a Raiders team that otherwise will be most likely drafting the first overall pick in 2015.
