Josh Culp's Blog, page 44

Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour

Let’s keep this short. Each week I will host a game on DraftKings with a $2 entry. Top two will win money each week, but more importantly they will earn bragging rights. I will give away prizes throughout the season and/or at the end of the season to the top performers, as well. Let’s see who is the King of DraftKings Golf.

Join this week’s introductory CIMB Classic contest.

Update: the contest filled quickly. Leave a comment here or tweet me your DK username and Lineup… I will score your team manually this week and also add you to the invite list for next week.

Don’t worry if you miss a few weeks throughout the season. I will do my best to make it a fair contest for anyone who actively enters most weeks. I will also keep this thing active by posting some statistics each week, including a leaderboard and the next week’s contest.

If you don’t have a DraftKings account yet, sign up here first for your 100% deposit bonus, and then come back and enter this week’s contest. Best of luck to all!

UPDATE #2: Instead of creating a new contest and risk not filling, here are our manual write-in teams this week. I will expand the league in future weeks as the demand sees fit.

rdubs04: Chappell Casey Choi DeLaet Reed Senden.

PapaCub: Casey, De Laet, Chris Stroud, Reed, MacKenzie, Moore

bgmula1: p casey, kj choi, ryo ishikawa, leishman, reed, westwood

gweim: Byrd, Mackenzie, Moore, Senden, Woodland, Westwood

The DraftKings Huddle: Week 8 Plays and Lineups

Week 7 is in the books and yet another poker player, RayOfHope, took down the $1,000,000 prize on DraftKings.  Our week was pretty solid and the sample lineups I gave put up respectable numbers.  I’m still looking for feedback on which format you guys prefer?  Do you like sample lineups?  I’ll continue with it this week as my goal is to help you guys make money and better your fantasy game.

One thing to note this week is that DraftKings once again is offering their Millionaire Maker tournament. This weekend you can turn $27 into $1,000,000 playing Daily Fantasy Football.

Week 8 DraftKings Plays

Quarterbacks:

1.) Aaron Rodgers/Packers/$9,000

2.) Tony Romo/Cowboys/$7,400

3.) Joe Flacco/Ravens/ $6,500

Running Backs:

1.) Matt Forte/Bears/$8,800

2.) Marshawn Lynch/Seahawks/$7,100

3.) Jerick McKinnon/Vikings/$4,900

4.) Ben Tate/Browns/$4,600

Wide Receivers:

1.) Jordy Nelson/Packers/$7,800

2.) Dez Bryant/Cowboys/$6,900

3.) Mike Wallace/Dolphins/$5,800

4.) Sammy Watkins/Bills/$5,700

5.) Jeremy Maclin/Eagles/$5,500

6.) Doug Baldwin/Seahawks/$4,700

Tight Ends:

1.) Rob Gronkowski/Patriots/$5,900

2.) Martellus Bennett/Bears/$5,200

3.) Dwayne Allen/Colts/$3,900

Defense:

1.) Bills/$3,300

2.) Dolphins/$3,300

3.) Cowboys/$3,000

Week 8 Sample Lineups:

FanDuel FFFC Qualifier: A Rookie Experience – Week – 8

I got 5.5 points from Brian Hoyer and that sums up how my Week 7 went. The Bills defense performed quite well and landed me 10 points which is way better than defenses have been scoring for me of late. Pretty much every other pick on my team went off or at least had a solid game. I missed the payout by approximately 10 points this week. I feel like I am getting the hang of setting a solid FanDuel lineup, just need to keep plugging away. Another new week and another new lineup.

FanDuel has switched things up and is now offering a $2 Qualifier to go along with their usual qualifiers for the $10 Million FFFC. The chance to turn $2 into $2 Million? Don’t mind if I do.

QB: Kyle Orton @ New York Jets – Cost $7,200

Orton has not been below 15 FanDuel points since he took over as the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills. The Bills just lost C.J. Spiller for the season and Fred Jackson is going to be down and out for a few weeks. With the running game being down to the 3rd and 4th back they should turn more to the pass in the coming weeks, especially against the New York Jets. The Jets have allowed 18 passing TDs and have just 1 interception through 7 games. Their secondary leaves a lot to be desired and Orton should certainly be able to take them apart after putting up solid numbers against better defenses this season.

RB: Matt Forte @ New England Patriots – Cost $9,500

Forte has been almost the entire Bears offense this season, he is close to 900 all purpose yards through 7 games to go with 5 total touchdowns. With FanDuel being a half point per reception it is also notable that he has hauled in 52 receptions. The Patriots are 24th in rushing yards allowed and I am sure even though they are 2nd in passing yards allowed that Forte will be able to get some receiving yards to go with a high amount of rushing yards.

RB: Shane Vereen vs Chicago Bears – Cost $6,800

Vereen had a very solid stat line against the Jets with 25.9 FanDuel Points. I am trying to get him on a team while he is still decently valued because I have a distinct feeling his price is going to jump after this week. Since Stevan Ridley is done for the season he will get most of the work starting for the Patriots at tail back and he hauls in a lot of passes. The Bears D slightly below average, this play is more for the volume of touches and potential of Vereen at this price but the Bears defense is pretty weak lately so that helps.

WR: Doug Baldwin @ Carolina Panthers – Cost $6,800

The first game after they traded Percy Harvin, Baldwin shows up in a big way with 21.8 FanDuel points. The whole Seahawks offense seemed to click a lot better without Harvin around. The Panthers just got lit up by the Green Bay Packers, allowing 38 points, they allowed 37 points to the Bengals the previous week. The Panthers defense is allowing 27.9 points per game, they are 29th in the league in points allowed per game. The Seahawks also will be looking to bounce back after a bizarre loss involving 2 big trick plays beating them against the Rams. They will be looking to make a statement that they still are a contender this season.

WR: Michael Floyd vs Philadelphia Eagles – Cost $6,500

This price is a steal for Floyd playing at home against the Eagles. The Eagles are allowing just over 2 passing touchdowns per game and they are 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed. Floyd has way better odds with Carson Palmer under center as well, 213 of his 353 receiving yards this season have been in the 3 games that Palmer started as well as his lone 2 touchdown grabs. I think this is my start of the week, I think Floyd will have a big day this Sunday.

WR: DeSean Jackson @ Dallas Cowboys – Cost $7,800

I have a gut feeling about this matchup, DeSean Jackson has a knack for showing up on Monday Night Football. He did so in Week 5 against the Seahawks with 5 catches for 157 yards receiving and a touchdown. Last season in his only Monday night game he caught 7 balls for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Washington Redskins. The only drawback I see here is that Colt McCoy will be starting and he isn’t known for his arm strength. Hoping that doesn’t come back to bite me but I still feel good about it.

TE: Zach Ertz @ Arizona Cardinals – Cost $5,400

Ertz has had a few solid games and the Cardinals are liable to get cut up by solid tight ends. Antonio Gates had 6 catches for 81 yards in Week 1, in Week 2 Larry Donnell had 7 catches for 81 yards, in Week 5 Julius Thomas racked up 6 catches for 66 yards and 2 TDs, and in Week 6 Jordan Reed went for 8 catches and 92 yards. Ertz is capable of putting up a good game and this one lines up for a decent potential for one, for this price it would be huge if he turns up 50+ yards and a touchdown.

K: Cody Parker @ Arizona Cardinals – Cost $5,100

The Cardinals defense is pretty tough in the redzone but is very liable to get beat for plenty of yards. Parker should get a decent amount of field goal attempts in this one.

D: Kansas City Chiefs vs St. Louis Rams – Cost $4,800

The Chiefs have a much better defense at home, they have the advantage of the loudest home crowd in the league. This helps them with their jump off the line, it was huge in their blowout victory against the New England Patriots in their last home game where they forced Tom Brady into 3 turnovers. The Rams are tied for 11th in sacks allowed despite already having their bye week, they have allowed 16 sacks through 6 games so there will be opportunities to get Austin Davis rattled. The Chiefs defense hasn’t been stellar this season overall but with just 2 home games so far I think they will be a lot more formidable in the coming weeks.

I was tempted to start Teddy Bridgewater but after springing for Hoyer at a cheap price and getting a cheap result I didn’t want to mess with it. I am thinking of running a 2nd team this week to incorporate that selection because Bridgewater could easily put up 20+ FanDuel Points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he just so happened to face 2 very tough defenses the last two weeks. I am sad that the Broncos are playing on Thursday night this week so I am unable to start any of them, otherwise I would have picked Peyton. I also liked Jamaal Charles this week, the Rams are the fifth worst against the run and I have a feeling that Charles is going to wreck them this week in a big way.

The McGladrey Classic Fantasy Preview

Two weeks into the season and we’ve already got some off-the-wall winners of Sang-Moon Bae and Ben Martin. They aren’t completely out of nowhere, but certainly not chalk picks. That is the joy of what’s known as fantasy golf. You can make your best predictions and do the finest analysis known to man, but it comes down to hitting a white ball about 200 times. Anyone can get hot and shake up the leaderboards.

I thought we could classify Ben Martin as an easy course specialist because I remembered his podium finish at the Puerto Rico Open last year and his 62 at the Zurich. Then I looked further and saw he also podiumed at two very difficult events, the RBC Heritage and Quicken Loans National. I guess he’ll remain a mystery for a while longer.

This week we head to Saint Simons Island, Georgia, for the McGladrey Classic. It’s played on the Seaside Course, a short track at just 7,005 yards with a par 70 written on the scorecard. The greens are bermuda and they are about 1,000 square feet larger than the average TOUR stop. Scores have been on the easy side of things, with the exception coming last year when the winds wrecked havoc. That’s never out of the question at a seaside location like this.

A quick look at previous leaderboards and you’ll see that driving accuracy actually matters here. Proof comes in the form of Heath Slocum, David Toms, Tim Clark, Jim Furyk, etc. The driving distance advantage gets minimized this week as most can leave the driver in the bag for a large chunk of the holes here at Seaside.

Correlated Course

FedEx St. Jude Classic: Ben Crane, Harris English, Dustin Johnson

Travelers Championship: Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke, Marc Leishman

Wyndham Championship: Camilo Vilegas, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia

St Jude is played on TPC Southwind where it’s a par 70 bermuda track with the same stimp on the greens, a weak field and narrow landing areas on the fairways. A lot of similarities there. Villegas, Allenby, and DL3 are all course horses at TPC Southwind.

The Travelers is played at TPC River Highlands on a short par 70 course that’s easier than most, features a weak field and almost identical fairways widths. Charley Hoffman and David Toms are both course horses there.

Finally, there is the Wyndham, played at Sedgefield on a short(er) par 70 bermuda track with bigger-than-average greens, 12 on the stimp, easier than average difficulty, and played with a weak field. A TON of similarities popping up there. Some Sedgefield course horses in this week’s field: Webb, Villegas, Huh, T. Clark, and David Toms.

As you can see, Camilo Villegas and David Toms both make multiple appearances above.

Players to Watch

Webb Simpson: Red numbers in 11-of-12 Seaside rounds on his way to three finishes of 12th or better. Par 70 versus a weak field on a short course… that’s a Webb Simpson special right there. Use him now or save him for the Wyndham. Not many other tournaments where he will stick out like a sore thumb.

Scott Brown: Has winning upside this week, and proved his consistency last year. A very strong DFS play this week. Oh wait, I said that last week and it’s still true. He has a pair of top 20s in his two trips to Sea Island.

Russell Knox: Don’t knock it til you try it and don’t Knox it til he learns to putt. He’s recorded positive SGP numbers both trips to Seaside Course, so fire him up again this week.

Charles Howell III: The short-course specialist is sure to strike again this week. Scoring average of 68.06 at Seaside Course and found his way to 32nd or better in all four trips.

Camilo Villegas: Already mentioned in the correlated course section. He’s climbed up my board quite a bit and could surprise a lot of folks this week.

Chris Kirk: Had him ranked 21st in my power rankings last year before he went on to win. So while it was from the back of the pack, it wasn’t a complete shocker by any means. The course fits him well (duh) but let’s see how he responds to the added media pressure that comes with being a defending champion. Slight downgrade.

Andrew Svoboda: He’s a bermuda-greens crusher. His finishes on bermuda greens last year: 24th-6th-44th-2nd-26th-38th-104th. Put on a bermuda show after that mishap of 104th place at the Sony Open. Has an outside shot of getting into contention this week, for sure.

Tony Finau: Had him on my “must-watch” list entering the season and he’s paid off nicely early on. Now he appears vastly overrated entering a course that will play against his strengths. With small sample size and poor course fit, let him be someone elses problem this week. Fade.

Justin Thomas: The complete opposite of Finau, now is the time to jump on Justin Thomas. I mentioned in my Frys.com preview that I would wait until bermuda season to pick Thomas, and now is the time. After a pair of MCs to start the season, many are already calling it quits on the young phenom. Fire him up and reap the rewards.

Chesson Hadley: Was ranked 5th in my power rankings for this event last year, but I was definitely premature on that call. He’s proven to be quite the headache after a full season on TOUR. He could capitalize on this familiar track or he could poop the bed again. Your guess is as good as mine.

My Top 25 for the 2015 McGladrey Classic

1. Webb Simpson

2. Bill Haas

3. Matt Kuchar

4. Zach Johnson

5. Charles Howell III

6. Brendon Todd

7. Chris Kirk

8. Harris English

9. Charley Hoffman

10. Brendon de Jonge

11. Camilo Villegas

12. Kevin Chappell

13. Jason Kokrak

14. Russell Knox

15. George McNeill

16. David Toms

17. Scott Brown

18. Daniel Summerhays

19. Jeff Overton

20. Cameron Tringale

21. Jerry Kelly

22. Brian Harman

23. Kevin Kisner

24. Russell Henley

25. Stuart Appleby

Golf is back on DraftKings.
Turn $2 into $1,000, turn $200 into $5,000, or turn $27 into $5,000 this week playing on DraftKings.

The McGladrey Classic – DraftKings Edition

It’s official! I’m MARRIED and ready to take on the world. The ‘nappy factor’ was in full effect last week as I took home 2nd place in the Chip Shot on DraftKings last week, and cashed in most of my other lineups as well. Or is the nappy factor just for babies? I’m not really sure what it means exactly, but I’m going to steal it since I constantly hear it being used when relating to performance after big life events. Actually if someone could explain to me what ‘nappy factor’ refers to, that’d be great. Thanks.

Let’s see if I can carried over that momentum to this week. Let’s have a look at DraftKings this week for the McGladrey Classic.

Any readers new to DFS Golf or this article in general, should take note that these are some recommended lineups based on certain criteria, but they are not always the right solution. Mix and match how you see fit, and you should be in great position to cash your daily fantasy golf lineups.

Mr and Mrs. Short Course

Brian Stuard @ $5,900: Top 10s in four of his last five events on short courses.

Hudson Swafford @ $7,400: Top 25s in three of last four on short tracks.

Charley Hoffman @ $7,500: Top 45s in 12 of last 16 events hosted by a short course.

Tim Wilkinson @ $4,300: Top 50s in four of last six short venues.

Matt Kuchar @ 12,000: Top 10s in six of last 13 events played on a short track.

Welp, I overstepped on the value picks here. There a whopping 13,200 for the final spot. You could remove Swafford since his sample is smaller or Wilkinson if you don’t trust him. Then you could fill-in with other short course studs: Zach Johnson, Webb Simpson, Chris Kirk, Brendon Todd, Brendon de Jonge. Choose wisely.

Course Horsery

Webb Simpson @ $11,700: 7th-2nd-12th

Charles Howell III @ $8,700: 27th-7th-32nd-6th

Brendon de Jonge @ $8,400: 16th-4th-60th-15th

Heath Slocum @ $5,700: 16th-61st-15th-1st

David Toms @ 6,600: 27th-2nd-72nd-3rd

This team is based on performance at the McGladrey since it’s inception in 2011. You’ve got 8900 left for your sixth and final spot. Not too shabby. Scott Brown, Russell Henley, Brian Harman, or Kevin Chappell all make great fill-ins at this price point.

Handpicked Value Plays

Brian Stuard ($5,900): Oh Stuard, I just can’t quit you. After a repeat Friday stinker, it appears he’s contracted Rory McIlroy disease of hot starts only to give it all back on day two. Rory eventually got things figured out, and I think Stuard can as well. Luckily, we don’t have to pay a premium to take another chance. At less than $6K, we get a great sleeper who will be very lowly owned but have a nice chance at a top 10. Just don’t trot him out in cash games, he’s definitely not a safe option at this point.

Charley Hoffman ($7,500): Talk about a price drop. As a man who was generally $8K to $9.5K range all of last season, it’s pretty great to see him this low versus a weak field, to boot. Hoff likes to throw in a stinker from time to time, but he’s made 40 of his last 48 cuts. He has 18 top 25s in the last two years. You’re not going to find this kind of reliable upside very often at $7500. Take advantage while you can. He also finished 22nd in his debut here last year.

Jeff Overton ($6,300): Looking much better as of mid-season last year after some injuries constantly set him back. Facing a weak field on a short track… that’s the time to attack this Hoosier. Has finished top 40 in five of his last six on short tracks and top 55 in eight of his last 10 events versus weak fields. Fire him up and watch the top 30 roll in. Just know that he’s always a threat to W/D as thats kind of his M.O. Don’t fully commit, but definitely get some exposure if you can.

Sleeper Recap

Average Sleeper Salary: $6,116

Average DraftKings Points: 72

Average DraftKings Value: 12.02x (Target Value = 10x)

Average Finishing Position: 42nd place

Sleepers that reached 10x Value: 4 of 6 (66%)

Missed Cuts: 1 of 6

The DraftKings Huddle: Week 7 Plays and Lineups

Week 6 is in the books and the biggest story to come out of it was the break out performance of Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco threw for an impressive 306 yards and 5 touchdowns in route to leading his team to a 48-17 victory over the Buccaneers. If you were like me and faded Flacco, we had no shot at winning the big gpp’s on DraftKings.

For Week 7, I’m going to give you guys a bit of a different format for the DraftKings huddle.  It’s my birthday week and I’m on vacation but when it comes to NFL, I take no weeks off.  I’ll be providing you guys with players I’m targeting and a couple sample lineups based on my selections…Feel free to use them as you wish.

One thing to note this week is that DraftKings once again is offering their Millionaire Maker tournament.  Turn $27 into $1,000,000 this weekend playing Daily Fantasy Football.

Quarterbacks:

1.) Aaron Rodgers/Packers/$8,800

2.) Jay Cutler/Bears/$7,900

3.) Russell Wilson/Seahawks/ $6,800

Running Backs:

1.) DeMarco Murray/Cowboys/$9,600 (Check his illness status before game time)

2.) Andre Ellington/Cardinals/$6,500

3.) Justin Forsett/Ravens/$5,600

4.) Ben Tate/Browns/$5,300

Wide Receivers:

1.) Jordy Nelson/Packers/$8,200

2.) Antonio Brown/Steelers/$7,900

3.) Julian Edelman/Patriots/$6,000 (Thursday)

4.) Golden Tate/ Lions/$5,900

5.) Andre Holmes/Raiders/$4,800

6.) Wes Welker/Broncos/$3,700

Tight Ends:

1.) Rob Gronkowski/Patriots/$6,700 (Thursday)

2.) Dwayne Allen/Colts/$3,700

3.) Larry Donnell/Giants/$3,500

Defenses:

1.) Bills/$3,300

2.) Browns/$3,000

3.) Titans/$2,600

Sample Lineups:

FanDuel FFFC Qualifier: A Rookie Experience – Week 7

There it goes again, I got solid performances out of most of my Week 6 squad but fell short again. The key to this epic fail was again my defense, the Bills D netted me a grand total of -2 FanDuel points for the week. My defenses have been horrifying, I almost want to start picking defenses of teams I would like to see lose assuming their defense will be awful based on me picking them.

Andre Williams scored a whopping 5.8 FanDuel points despite getting a start against the Eagles defense. Brian Hartline laid an egg on me after leading the Dolphins with 7 targets and 6 catches in their previous game. It seems like bad luck and I hope that is all it is because I am seemingly spending more time each week with my lineup and it seems to be giving me about the same results. I broke over 100 points despite a goose egg, -2 and 5.8 points from 3 starts so I must have done decent on the rest of my starts.

I still enjoy the fact that FanDuel is like having a new draft every week, so with every new week brings new hope.

QB: Brian Hoyer @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Cost: $6,400

Hoyer keeps going out of his way to prove that he belongs the starter for this Browns team and may have them poised to make the playoffs for the first time in a long time(11 seasons), possibly anyways. The Jaguars allow a kind passer rating of 109.7 to opposing passers. The Jaguars have allowed 12 touchdowns and intercepted 1 pass through 6 games. Especially if the Jaguars can stay in this game for a while, Hoyer can total a solid number of FanDuel points for his low cap hit. He also has Jordan Cameron back and looking healthy which ought to bolster his numbers as well.

RB: Arian Foster @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Cost: $9,100

Foster has been tearing it up when he is healthy, albeit that he isn’t always healthy. I imagine he can stay healthy long enough to put up some points against a middle of the road rush defense of the Steelers. Foster is the focal point of the offense and will continue to be, he is far too talented not to be. I am really feeling some sleepers at low costs this week so I wanted a sure fire high cost pick that could tear it up as well.

RB: Justin Forsett vs Atlanta Falcons – Cost: $6,200

Forsett continues to get the most action in the Ravens backfield and does the most with it as well. He is facing a Falcons defense that has allowed a league most 12 rushing touchdowns. The Falcons are also 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed, all signs point to a solid rushing attack for the Ravens this week and I believe it will be Forsett taking full advantage of the matchup. Forsett is coming off of 17.2, 19.2, and 11.1 FanDuel points in the previous 3 games and still has a price point lower than $6,500 going against a terrible run defense, count me in.

WR: Antonio Brown vs Houston Texans – Cost $8,700

Antonio Brown is due for another 20+ FanDuel point game and the Texans have allowed 7 40+ yard pass plays, 31st in the league in that category. I can see Brown getting a big one in this game and backing it up with his consistency during the rest of the game. You can’t go wrong with Brown, his low point on the season was 10.9 FanDuel points.

WR: Golden Tate vs New Orleans Saints – Cost $6,700

Golden Tate has been the top dog in Detroit since Calvin “Megatron” Johnson went down and while Megatron may be back to work this week I expect Tate to get a lot of work either way. Last week was a down week for Tate, but the previous two weeks he didn’t get below a total of 115 receiving yards. I expect a solid performance against a very beatable New Orleans secondary.

WR: Emmanuel Sanders vs San Francisco 49ers – Cost $7,800

This pick is a bit of a shot in the dark, I believe that Sanders will bounce back this week from a poor outing in Week 6 despite going against one of the strongest pass defenses in the league. There is some method to my madness, first off, I need to fan pick a Bronco and I like Sanders. Secondly, Peyton will get his stats one way or another, against the stingy defenses he finds a way and I think that this week it will be with sure handed Emmanuel Sanders. The numbers seem impossible that he can still have 0 touchdowns despite Peyton throwing 15, I think that breaks this week.

TE: Jordan Reed vs Tennessee Titans – Cost $5,400

When healthy, Jordan Reed can put a hurting on defenses, the main issue is that he isn’t 100% often. After a game where he was targeted 11 times and caught 8 for 92 yards receiving, I believe it is safe to say he is healthy, if only for the moment. The potential output for the cheap price could pay some solid dividends this week for me. The Titans pass defense is mediocre and could allow a solid day to Reed for sure.

K: Randy Bullock @ Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,700

The Steelers allow 23.2 points per game and the Texans don’t have the most dynamic offense so I imagine that they will stall out from time to time and give Bullock a chance to contribute.

D: Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings – $5,000

I am going to give the Bills a chance at redemption here. I certainly don’t wish ill to their defense, I like rooting for this underdog team so I hope that my picking them doesn’t curse them. A home game against the Vikings who are 28th in points per game sounds pretty good to me. They also have a -5 turnover ratio that bodes well for the Bills. I expect a bounce back game from the Bills in a big way, this is a defense fully capable of putting up big fantasy points.

Overall, I can’t say I was too upset about my recent failures in FanDuel, I feel like I am learning valuable lessons as I go. The only one I still haven’t learned from is the defense situation, seems like there isn’t any consistency in defenses this year, I will just keep playing around with it until I get it right.

I am still recovering from my bachelor party from this past weekend (as I am writing this Tuesday night), I didn’t get to watch a ton of football this Sunday while I tried to sleep off the most alcohol I probably have ever consumed in an evening. Despite the amount of alcohol it was a very tame party consisting of paintball, volleyball, and poker night. My brothers and close friends put on a good evening for me and now my wedding date is just around the corner.

My wedding is on a Sunday, doesn’t make the NFL fan inside me too happy, but Sunday weddings are way cheaper so my wallet will be happy and it is only one Sunday. Hopefully my cell phone can find a home in my nice suit and I can check the scores and my FanDuel lineup now and again without the old ball and chain noticing. That is probably not going to fly with her but it can’t hurt to dream.

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Fantasy Preview

This week on the PGA TOUR we head to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open. It’s the second stage of the Fall Series, and the field will remain weak overall. There are definitely a few bright stars, but the lack of depth is where the field becomes weak. All these Web.com Grads and golfers lacking fully-exempt status are out here trying to make their nut before the rest of the TOUR stars gets back from vacation.

The course is TPC Summerlin, a par 71 that lays out at 7,255 yards at slight altitude and deserty environment. The greens are are bentgrass and quite large, over 1,500 square feet larger than the average TOUR stop. That means putting takes precedence over scrambling.

Correlated Stats

This segment will likely be done away with this year. I found myself putting A TON of extra time into nitty gritty analysis and more often than not the results came back as par 4 scoring, adjusted scoring, strokes gained: tee-to-green. Those three stats cover all you need most weeks.

Instead, I chose to spend my time elsewhere this week. I started thinking about how local knowledge has seemed to play a big part in these Nevada tournaments. So, I took to Google and mapped out the last 13 winners of the Barracuda Championship and Shriners events.

Green markers = Shriners winners while Red = Barracuda winners.

As you can see from the map, three of the winners reside in Las Vegas, while three reside in Scottsdale. Those are the two areas you may want to give a slight boost to. Only four of the 13 winners are from what I call “bermuda country”, east of the Mississippi River. John Rollins is from Virginia which may technically be North of Bermuda country but I gave him a pass. He also shacks up in Texas now, so there’s that as well.

Don’t make your weekly picks based on where a golfer is from, but certainly feel free to use this information as a tiebreaker.

Correlated Course

Waste Management Phoenix Open: Kevin Stadler, Phil Mickelson, Kyle Stanley

DBank Championship: Chris Kirk, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy

Barracuda Championship: Geoff Ogilvy, Gary Woodland, JJ Henry

Three courses stood out to me this week. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is another desert track, played in Scottsdale, which we already talked about the similarities there. It’s a Par 71 at 7,152 yards and plays easier than average difficulty. The Deutsche Bank Championship is a par 71 stretching to 7,216 yards on bentgrass greens, playing as one of the easier courses. The stars all align there. The problem is you have to earn your way into the Playoffs to play it. Plenty in this field have never done so. That’s where Barracuda Championship comes in. Played in nearby Reno as a second-tier event, this is where the weak field comes into play.

Brendan Steele just happens to be a course horse at all three venues. Kevin Na pops up on two of the course horse lists as well. Give both of them a boost.

Players to Watch

Ryan Moore: The local boy has won here before, and he’s a threat to do so again this week. With his 2013-14 top 25 percentage over 50% and local knowledge, Moore is one of the safer plays this week.

Brendan Steele: Already mentioned in the correlated course section, Steele can play on similar courses, but he can also play here. He is 3-for-3 with two top 20s here at TPC Summerlin. When going low is the name of the game, Steele is always someone you must consider. He can really get it rolling, and a round or two of sub-65 this week wouldn’t be all that surprising.

Nick Watney: Found his groove late last year after a horrid start to the year. He nearly took home the hardware at nearby Barracuda Championship in Reno. Finishing 33rd or better in six of his last nine events, I like his chance to carry over that momentum this week.

Webb Simpson: Defending champ. That’s rarely a good sign of things to come, but this is the Shriners afterall. He may have more interview responsibilities and such but Billy Horschel will also gather a ton of attention as the defending FedExCup champ making his season debut. Ashlee Simpson is still a good bet for a top 25 this week.

Hideki Matsuyama: Looking at all angles, Matsuyama comes up on top in nearly all of them. He’s part of the class of the field, and will be less picked than most of the local boys. He’s worth a look in OAD since his course history hasn’t accumulated at most venues later in the season, so we don’t really know where his course horsetory lies. Hard to fully commit as he makes his course debut, though.

Kevin Stadler: Scottsdale has been a common theme so far and that’s where Baby Walrus lives while he was born in Reno. His ties to the area are thick even though most of his time growing up was in Denver. A top 40 is likely, but he has the top 10 upside this week.

Martin Laird: I wanted to really get on board with the Laird train this week, but the numbers just don’t add up. He carried some late-season momentum into last week and now readies for a venue he’s had success at in the past. Sounds great, right? I agree, his upside is top-notch this week and he could very well go onto the win it. However, I think he is a tad overpriced all across the industry. He’s the ninth-most expensive golfer on DraftKings, and ranked 1st in Ryan O and Rob Bolton’s power rankings. My fellow Rotoworld colleague are not dumb, but I have chosen to back off Laird this week. His stats versus weak fields and course history certainly stand out, but the rest of his predictors are average. I think his chance of a sub-40th place finish is much higher than a top 10, so I will politely fade this week.

Max Homa: Plenty of Web.com grads are getting love this week, but this youngster is sliding in under the radar. He’s finished top 50 in four of his last five weak field events. He’s finished top 30 in two of his three bentgrass green events. Top 50 in two of his three easy course events. The sample sizes are still small but his pedigree is good enough to take a chance for now. Homa could be this years breakout youngster, get on board early and often.

Jason Bohn: Course horse. Have a look.

Billy Horschel: The past FedExCup champs almost all teed it up in a no-cut event in their first tournaments following their title, so it’s hard to say how most would react in a normal field. However, he is probably still counting his money and still trying to find some sleep with his new baby in the picture. It would be impressive if his mental game is all there this week, and that’s what it’s all about for Billy Ho. I will take the wait-and-see approach until he proves he’s ready to rock. Fade.

Scott Brown: Has winning upside this week, and proved his consistency last year. A very strong DFS play this week.

Russell Knox: Continues to make cut after cut and finish inside the top 40 most weeks when doing so. He continues to be associated with Brendon Todd in my mind, due to their typical finishes. Just a matter of time before Knox goes on a Todd-like run. Could this be the week it all starts? Perhaps. He does have a T30 and T13 here at TPC Summerlin.

My Top 25 for the 2014 (2015?) Shriners Hospital for Children Open

1. Ryan Moore

2. Hideki Matsuyama

3. Jimmy Walker

4. Brandt Snedeker

5. Webb Simpson

6. Nick Watney

7. Billy Horschel

8. Kevin Na

9. Graham DeLaet

10. Brendan Steele

11. Charley Hoffman

12. Charles Howell III

13. Kevin Stadler

14. Russell Knox

15. Harris English

16. John Senden

17. Cameron Tringale

18. Bo Van Pelt

19. Morgan Hoffmann

20. Brendon de Jonge

21. Daniel Summerhays

22. Kevin Streelman

23. Brooks Koepka

24. Scott Piercy

25. Jeff Overton

Golf is back on DraftKings.
Turn $2 into $1,000, turn $200 into $5,000, or turn $27 into $5,000 this week playing on DraftKings.

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – DraftKings Edition

Mister Sang-Moon Bae, very interesting. I can’t say I saw that one coming last week at the Frys.com Open. The shocking thing was his lack of putting on the week. He’s usually a lock-down putter but needs to have a good week striking the ball to have a chance. Last week he did just that as he finished 1st in strokes gained: tee-to-green but way down in 60th in strokes gained: putting. Very strange.

Hard to pick players like Bae who lack the consistency, but luckily, hardly anyone saw it coming. This week, I’m going to add in a segment at the end recapping my sleeper picks for the season. This will provide some accountability as the season progresses. Each week on DraftKings, I try to target 10x value on my players. What that means, for anyone new to one-week fantasy golf is that a player who costs $5,000 would need 50 points to reach 10x value. It’s basically fantasy points per $1,000 spent. A DFS golf team with all six golfers reaching 10x value would equate to 500 fantasy points for the week. That would have put you in the 99th percentile last week. That’s not always the case, but 500 points is never a bad target entering the week.

Anyway, let’s see what’s on tap at this week’s Shriners Hospital for Children Open:

Team Weak Sauce

Charles Howell III @ $8,300: Top 10s in six of last 21 weak field tournaments.

Jeff Overton @ $6,700: Median 32nd place finish in last 21 weak field events.

Harris English @ $8,300: Median Finish of 33rd place in last 17 weak field events, including two wins.

Retief Goosen @ $7,600: Top 25s in six of last 15 weak field events.

Charley Hoffman @ 9,000: Top 10s in six of last 12 weak field events.

Using the tournaments played with weak fields since the beginning of 2013, these golfers all get the job done. With $10,100 leftover, you could go for the popular pick this week of Martin Laird, the local boy Nick Watney, or the Curly-Haired Crusher Brandt Snedeker. Others strong versus weak fields: Webb Simpson, Jimmy Walker, Billy Horschel, Ryan Moore, Graham DeLaet, Hideki Matsuyama, Scott Brown, Kevin Na.

Shrine it Up!

Jason Bohn @ $6,800: 2nd-8th-49th-14th

Ryan Moore @ $11,600: 9th-1st-118th-7th-24th

Kevin Streelman @ $7,000: 22nd-16th-14th-43rd

Scott Piercy @ $6,500: 123rd-6th-1th-28th-14th

Chad Campbell @ 5,600: 36th-54th-23rd-28th-2nd-3rd

This team is based on performance at the Shriners since 2008. Uh oh! We have a ton of salary left over. Fear not, you can either have your pick of the litter with money to spare or you can swap out some of these plays with some other course horses of your choice: Carl Pettersson, Webb Simpson, Brendan Steele, Nick Watney, Charles Howell III, Spencer Levin, Kevin Na.

Handpicked Value Plays

Brian Stuard @ $5,900: I’m not sure what happened last Friday but I’m ready to get back on board. There are about 5-10 tournaments a year where Stuard is worth a look, this is definitely one of them. Last week’s course didn’t prove to be too easy, but this week is always one of the easiest stops on TOUR. That’s where Stuard feasts. His median finish in his last nine tournaments played on easy courses (1-under RTP or easier) is 15th place. He finished top 10 in four of those. With everyone off Stuard due to his Friday round of 78, now is the perfect time to grab him in GPPs. It doesn’t hurt that he’s gained 8.304 strokes with the flat stick at TPC Summerlin during his last two visits. Don’t be scared, child.

Daniel Summerhays @ $6,500: Just 400 miles from where Danny Boy grew up, he should feel relatively at ease in the desert environment in slight altitude. He’s finished top 40 here each of the past two seasons and he’s becoming a regular fixture on the weekly leaderboards. By the end of the year, Summerhays might find his way into the list of “most talented without a win”. Might as well hop on the train again this week if the price is going to stay this low.

Scott Piercy @ $6,500: Mr. Las Vegas himself had finished top 30 here each of his prior four trips before last season’s debacle. It was ugly last year, but he still managed a positive SGP on the week and later shut it down with an injury. I’m not too concerned about that since he returned with top 25s in two of his three appearances and also a T11 on the Web.com Tour in Utah. After missing the cut last week in Cali, he should feel right at home this week. #DesertGolf

Sleeper Recap

Average Sleeper Salary: $5,933

Average DraftKings Points: 71

Average DraftKings Value: 12.75x (Target Value = 10x)

Average Finishing Position: 36th place

Sleepers that reached 10x Value: 2 of 3 (66%)

Missed Cuts: 0

FanDuel FFFC Qualifier: A Rookie Experience – Week 6

I decided my favorite part of FanDuel or any DFS experience is that I can throw out my entire lineup and put in all new players the following week after a bad week.

Another terrible performance by another very good defense, the Bengals defense fell apart to a team whose offense had been struggling. They scored me a solid -3 points; I will have to get one right at some point. I am not one to give up easy and I was not in the playoffs every year when I first started playing season long fantasy football but after putting in the effort and getting the necessary experience I am a virtual lock for the playoffs in every league I join.

Week 6 Team:
QB: Aaron Rodgers @ Miami Dolphins Cost: $9,600

Rodgers had a down week statistically due to the fact that the Packers went up by too many points too early for them to keep throwing the ball. It seems like Rodgers is going back and forth having great statistical games followed by average ones. Hoping this trend continues and pays dividends from this high cost.

RB: Brandon Oliver @ Oakland Raiders Cost: $6,200

The Oakland Raiders are allowing a ton of rushing yards, 158.2 per game (31st in NFL), and Oliver just put up over 100 yards on a much better run defense, the New York Jets. At $6,200 Oliver is a bargain for the potential, he scored 32.2 FanDuel fantasy points last week. Even if he manages half of those points against the porous Raiders’ defense then he is worth his cost.

RB: Andre Williams @ Philadelphia Eagles Cost: $6,300

The Eagles don’t tackle well and it shows in their rushing yards allowed per game being ranked 24th in the league allowing 132 rushing yards per game. Andre Williams will be getting a start against the Eagles and his power running style against their poor tackling is a recipe for a lot of yardage. At a cheap price for a starting running back playing a bad defense I am going to take advantage of it.

WR: Demaryius Thomas @ New York Jets Cost: $9,100

Thomas blew up last week for over 200 yards receiving and 2 TDs and that type of play is more what is to be expected from him than the previous weeks this season. Thomas gets to play the Jets defense that has surrendered 11 passing touchdowns through 5 weeks. I need to start getting my at least one Bronco trend going: that seemed to help me out in the past.

WR: Jordy Nelson @ Miami Dolphins Cost: $8,500

Nelson seems to have an off game every other game just like Rodgers so I think these two are going to have a big day together. In weeks 2 and 4 Nelson was right around 30 FanDuel points, if he can get close to those numbers he is worth the hefty price tag.

WR: Brian Hartline vs Green Bay Packers Cost: $4,700

I see the Packers putting up a ton of points and the Dolphins needing to play some catch up. Hartline is averaging over 6 targets a game and a due for a solid game. The game where there will be a lot more targets to go around is a good bet for a solid game from him. With his low salary I was able to throw in my 2 top tier wide outs as well as Aaron Rodgers, if he can throw in a decent stat line to go with it I would be more than satisfied with this pick.

TE: Martellus Bennett @ Atlanta Falcons Cost: $5,900

Bennett is facing the Falcons defense which is pretty terrible all around this year. The Falcons are 29th in the league in points allowed with 28.6 points per game. Bennett had a down game with almost no fantasy points but his stats through 5 games are 32 catches, 312 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Those stats are hard to beat and to go along with it his price tag went down considerably due to a terrible week. I imagine he will bounce back with a solid performance against the Falcons.

K: Patrick Murray vs Baltimore Ravens Cost: $4,500

This kicker was the cheapest kicker out there as I was struggling to get Jordy Nelson and Demaryius Thomas onto the team while not sacrificing the rest of the team I had built. The Buccaneers are starting to look better with Mike Glennon under center so they should be able to put up some solid points against the Ravens.

D: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Cost: $5,200

I have wanted to start the Bills here but they keep having rough matchups. I have the Bills in my best season long league and I am the points leader so far in that league and the Bills have been doing phenomenal for me. A home game against their division rival New England Patriots for the lead in the AFC East should be a fun one. I think that the Bills are going to have plenty of fight in them during this game; this isn’t the same potent Patriots offense that has been embarrassing them for many years. I am envisioning a statement game for the Buffalo Bills to let the world know they are real contenders.

I am getting ready to fly back home for my bachelor party this weekend, excited to see my brothers and friends for the weekend. I will be getting married a month from now to my best friend, hopefully she isn’t going to mind my new FanDuel addiction. I have been enjoying my experience with FanDuel despite recent failures; I am going to keep getting back on the horse and pushing into the next week.

As I write this my $1 entry for the Thursday night NFL squib tournament on FanDuel is going extremely well. My 2 players going on Thursday night are Arian Foster and Andrew Luck, the biggest contributors from each team in a game that ended up being decently high scoring. There are a variety of different games with different payouts and buy-ins on FanDuel. Get in some action today.

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