Josh Culp's Blog, page 40
February 17, 2015
Northern Trust Open Fantasy Golf Happy Hour Ep 5
This week features a surprise guest, Gibb Pollard of Rotogrinders.com. We discuss the Northern Trust Open on DraftKings.
Is it safe to go back to Snedeker after the win?
Is Bill Haas too dangerous with a baby on the way?
Does Bernd Wiesberger bring his form with him overseas?
All that and more.
DraftKings FREE $1K Northern Trust Open Contest
February 11, 2015
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Fantasy Preview
This week the PGA TOUR heads to Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. The views will be scenic and the rounds will be long. The PGA TOUR pros will split the first three days among three different courses. This means that golfers will play a guaranteed three rounds and only the top 60 and ties will make it through to Sunday, not the usual top 70.
All three courses are short. I mean real short. The courses are short, but they are still littered with par 5s. For that reason, distance is a plus but not a requirement. The fairways are generous to say the least. Most years, the field will average between 60 and 70 percent of fairways hit. Being straight off the tee is not needed this week as everyone will be hitting these fairways. That means iron play and/or scrambling is a must. The greens are very small, so if you can hit them you are at a great advantage. If not, getting up and down is another way to score around here.
Look for more angles and information on the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Golfanac page.
Players to Watch
Jimmy Walker… Remains locked in and this is one of the events he’s feasted on in the past. There is zero reason to avoid him this week unless a salary is involved.
Brandt Snedeker… Known for his love of Poa greens so he’s certainly a threat. Other than his win in 2013 he hasn’t finished inside the top 20. Take a pass on Sneds and thank me later.
Kevin Na… It’s a sea of red numbers when you look at Na’s history at this event. He’s got top 5s in two of his last three here. It makes sense when you consider his incredibly slow pace of play that he would thrive in a pro-am event where rounds take FOREVER. Same goes for Andrew Loupe.
Ryan Palmer… On the opposite end of the spectrum, Palmer likes to play quick as Joel points out over at 4DeepGolf. He’s barely got anything to show for his nine trips here as he searches for his first top 20. The same could be said about J.B. Holmes at the Farmers prior to last week though. His form makes him someone you can’t completely ignore.
Hunter Mahan… Top 10s in three of his last four in California. Has the nappy factor going for him after his wife delivered their second child last week. Love me some Mahan this week.
Spencer Levin… Check the short course specialists and Levin is right there. Poa annua greens? Check. In pretty decent form as well. Could be lighting up quite a few cigs this week as he tries to get that coveted first win that he’s been close to so many times.
William McGirt… He’s been hit or miss here, with two finishes of 31st or better paired with two missed cuts. With his 2015 form, you’d have to think the former is more likely.
Dustin Johnson… Glad we were hesitant last week but now is the time to attack. Five top 10s here in seven tries. This is his course. A top 25 is likely.
Jordan Spieth… He’s done well here in two previous trips and he’ll be slightly off-the-radar after his missed cut last week. You can’t keep Spieth down for long, look for a bounce back.
Kevin Streelman… Is rounding into form and has figured out Pebble Beach since 2010. His median round here since then is 69, with just four of 16 rounds over-par.
Zac Blair… The baby-faced killer now has four top 25s on the season. Doing it with the flat stick, ranking 14th in SGP. He’s averaging 11 yards less than TOUR average off the tee, but with these courses, that length is not a necessity. Worth a shot as a flier.
Steven Bowditch… Course horse.
Shane Lowry… In top-form worldwide. Ride em while he’s hot.
Ian Poulter… He checks all the boxes and seems to be playing better after a long stretch of turds. Should be safe to reinvest, especially on a links-style layout like this week.
Top 25 for the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
1. Jimmy Walker
2. Hunter Mahan
3. Jason Day
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Patrick Reed
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Kevin Na
8. Kevin Streelman
9. Chris Kirk
10. Jason Kokrak
11. Jim Furyk
12. Aaron Baddeley
13. Ryan Palmer
14. Graham DeLaet
15. Ian Poulter
16. Spencer Levin
17. Brandt Snedeker
18. Daniel Summerhays
19. Brendon Todd
20. Bryce Molder
21. J.B. Holmes
22. Billy Horschel
23. Ernie Els
24. William McGirt
25. Robert Garrigus
Turn $2 into $5,000 this week on DraftKings. Draft Now!
February 10, 2015
04 Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Happy Hour
This week we talk about the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, and Ernie Els are three interesting options we dive into.
Is it better to go Stars & Scrubs or balanced this week?
Can Jason Day back up his win or is it time to keep fading the winners?
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am – DraftKings Edition
Two of last week’s three sleepers hit, with Ryo Ishikawa coming up short yet again. Also threw a shoutout to CH3 who came through in a big way. It was all about avoiding the landmines last week at the Farmers as nine of the top 20 according to Vegas either missed the cut or withdrew.
This week we stay on Poa annua greens for the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. On the Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour, we saw friend of the blog, bdsendlak take down his first win. Congrats! He now has a +33.5 strokes gained: draftkings after four starts. Look out for Brad as the season progresses. The standings will convert over to SG:DraftKings once the sample size is large enough, but for now we’ll just keep viewing it by total DraftKings Points scored.
Speaking of standings, here there are after the Farmers Insurance Open. It’s time to start brainstorming ideas for the next prize up for grabs so be on the look out for that. After looking at the standings, we can take a peek at DraftKings options this week at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Form Fitting
Kevin Na ($8,300) … 26th-48th-64th-20th-2nd
Jason Bohn ($5,500) … 66th-30th-7th-2nd-54th-18th
Ryan Palmer ($10,000) … 2nd-10th-17th-22nd
Hunter Mahan ($10,100) … 30th-17th-28th-3rd
Rory Sabbatini ($7,300) … 22nd-24th-6th-56th-8th-22nd
Sabbatini was an early-week WD last week but he’s back in the field and was swinging a hot club before the week off. Mahan welcomed his second child last week, so he has that nappy factor that all the tipsters love to talk about. Palmer and Bohn don’t have good track records here but their current form cannot be ignored.
Course Horse-is
Dustin Johnson ($11,200) … 2nd-90th-5th-55th-1st-1st-7th
Bryce Molder ($7,600) … 10th-12th-69th-6th-10th-121st
Spencer Levin ($6,900) … 45th-9th-4th-46th-14th
Sean O’Hair ($9,000) … 56th-16th-29th-31st-35th-10th
Aaron Baddeley ($10,400) … 56th-12th-4th-6th-117th
Horses for the course. If you don’t need a large sample size for your corse horses, you could also throw in Patrick Reed or Jordan Spieth. Steven Bowditch and Jason Kokrak also have some nice history but four and three starts, respectively. More recently, it’s harder to find anyone better than Jimmy Walkaaa, who won last year after posting three straight top 10s. Robert Garrigus and Hunter Mahan have also been very solid on these poa greens.
Handpicked Value Plays
Bryce Molder ($6,700) … Had one of his worst seasons in a while last year after a mid-season slump kept on going. He has red numbers in 10-of-17 rounds to start the new season including a podium finish at the Frys.com Open. More importantly he’s finished 12th or better in four of his last five trips here. Also throw in a fourth place finish at the TaylorMade Pebble Beach Invitational this fall and you got yourself an active outsider.
Aaron Baddeley ($7,200) … Just like Molder, his Pebble track record is juicy, with top 20s in four of his last six starts here. His putter is a deadly weapon anywhere he goes but it’s nice to see poa is no obstacle for him, posting top 30s in eight of his last 13 on Poa annua greens.
Sean O’Hair ($5,700) … Speaking of Poa greens, O’Hair is not usually known for his putting prowess but he’s gained 8.296 strokes with the flat stick in 10 measured round at Pebble Beach Golf Links over the last five visits here. It’s no wonder that he own six top 35s in nine visits. Also has just one missed cut over his last seven after starting the season with a WD at the Frys.com Open.
February 4, 2015
Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview
Last week was the return of Tiger and this week Dustin Johnson will grace us with his presence. It’s been a long suspension layoff for DJ, so his readiness to compete on the PGA TOUR will be up in the air. He’s had plenty of time to practice, so he could be locked in or he could be a little too used to “civilian setups” as most courses across the country are not setup like your typical PGA TOUR event.
This week we head to San Diego, California, for the Farmers Insurance Open. The course is Torrey Pines. You may know it since, well, it’s a famous venue. It hosted the 2008 U.S. Open as well if you need a tiebreaker this week. One thing to note about the course is the fairways. They are tight. The field generally averages between 45% and 55% of fairways hit. That’s bad by PGA TOUR standards. You also aren’t going to make many birdies out of the rough. Accuracy out of your picks this week would be nice but distance is more important. It’s about making the most of the fairways you do hit this week and capitalizing on the par 5s.
Let’s have a look at who should be on our radar this week…
Players to Watch
Rickie Fowler… Last week was the calm before the storm. If we are to believe Fowler’s career is just like a Skrillex song then the last year has been full of killer wub’s, last week he slowed it down a notch, and now he’s about to drop the bass in front of thousand of adoring fans! And why wouldn’t we believe Fowler’s career would follow the trajectory of a dubstep song? This could definitely be the week he gets back in the winner’s circle.
Brandt Snedeker…
The golf course is great. I really love the greens. The greens were in great shape this week. They get a little bumpy, which I enjoy. Makes you focus in on your line. You get the ball on a good line. I just love being here. It’s amazing how much more relaxed you are when you like being somewhere.
Mister Poa annua greens himself should be near the top of your list this week. Five top 10s in eight tries here.
Gary Woodland… Let me down last week. Has the length to compete this week but six of his eight career weekend rounds at Torrey South are over-par.
Keegan Bradley… Feasts on long courses and enjoys a good challenge. He can grind it out with the best of them. Top 25s in three of his four trips here.
Hideki Matsuyama… This is a stereotypical scenario where a golfer finishes runner-up and carries over the form to win next week. His weakness is his putter but he gained 6.225 strokes with the flat stick at this event last year in three measured Torrey South rounds.
Luke Donald… Hasn’t teed it up here since 2010 but this was an annual cash-grab back in the day. He owns six top 25s in seven appearances, four of those going for top 10s. Moneyyyy.
Dustin Johnson… Making his return, there is no telling what state his game will be in. You can hear all the stories you want about his game during the suspension but everything goes out the window when they actually tee it up.
Lucas Glover… Generally plays par 72s better than all other venues and he’s played Torrey Pines well in the past. He lacks the consistency but does have three Farmers top 10s on his resume.
Fabian Gomez… Not impressive course history but his form is as good as it’s ever been. A deep, deep sleeper.
Jhonattan Vegas… Third place finish here in 2011 and just one missed cut in four tries at Torrey Pines. If you need a salary saver in DFS, you could do worse.
Jordan Spieth… Fired a 63 in round two last year to grab the lead before fading over the weekend. He’s yet to prove himself on Poa annua, which means you can probably save him if you’re on the fence this week.
Jimmy Walker… It’s getting kind of boring just plugging him in every week but he rarely disappoints. He’s got six top 5s in his last 10 California events. Unless his putter breaks on Thursday morning, you can pencil him in for a top 25.
Tiger Woods… It’s been two tournaments(one of them being a charity event) and every analyst is already writing him off. It’s true that last week was a disaster, but he’s won this event seven times and won the 2008 U.S. Open here with a gimpy knee. He has just four rounds over-par at this event in 54 career rounds. Unlike most, I think he will make it through to the weekend and woulnd’t be too shocked if he made big moves.
Top 25 for the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open
1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Brandt Snedeker
3. Rickie Fowler
4. Jimmy Walker
5. Jordan Spieth
6. Jason Day
7. Keegan Bradley
8. Justin Rose
9. Marc Leishman
10. Luke Donald
11. Billy Horschel
12. Dustin Johnson
13. Gary Woodland
14. Nick Watney
15. Harris English
16. Chris Kirk
17. Justin Thomas
18. Phil Mickelson
19. Charley Hoffman
20. Ryo Ishikawa
21. Paul Casey
22. Brendan Steele
23. Tiger Woods
24. K.J. Choi
25. Bill Haas
Turn $2 into $2,000 this week on DraftKings. Draft Now!
February 3, 2015
03 Farmers Insurance Open Happy Hour
This week Joel and I talk Farmers Insurance Open as Dustin Johnson returns and Brooks Koepka looks to back up his first PGA TOUR title. Tiger Woods has a case of the yips but is he worth a shot at a venue where he’s won some many times before? We discuss that and more this week on the Fantasy Golf Happy Hour!
Farmers Insurance Open – DraftKings Edition
The PGA TOUR heads back to California this week after a pit stop in Arizona. The Farmers Insurance Open takes place in La Jolla and will be highlighted by the return of Dustin Johnson. Before we look at DraftKings Fantasy Golf picks for the week, let’s get a rundown of the Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour standings.
Purplhays is the talk of the town with his record-setting win last week. He beat the field average by 128.6 strokes last week. It was just his second start of the season, but he is surely here for the long run with these kind of numbers. Friend of the blog, bdsendlak is also making moves, as he was a late addition but owns a 25.4 strokes gained:draftkings after three events. The league is expanding to 25 spots this week so make sure you get in this week if you’ve been holding out! Enter Now.
Now let’s see who we like this week:
Top Form
Martin Laird ($8,300) … 5th-15th-89th-72nd-18th-3rd
Fabian Gomez ($4,800) … 30th-71st-23rd-14th-8th
Chris Kirk ($8,700) … 56th-26th-14th-14th-4th
Gary Woodland ($9,200) … 77th-3rd-56th-2nd
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,700) … 2nd-78th-3rd-41st-21st-10th-3rd
Woodland let us down last week but you still get two podium finishes in four starts for 9,200. Matsuyama has the top form in the field three podium finishes including a fresh runner-up at last week’s Waste Management. Chris Kirk remains steady but now he faces a tougher field and no real history of success here. The price has dropped but you are now paying for form, not history. Gomez has top 30s in four of five starts this season and tore it up in South America during the fall. The man is hot and a great salary-saver. Others in top form include: Jimmy Walker, Brooks Koepka, Brendan Steele, Kevin Na, and Brendon de Jonge.
Course Stallions
Rickie Fowler ($11,200) … 105th-6th-13th-20th-5th
K.J. Choi ($7,600) … 2nd-9th-29th-15th-119th
Charles Howell III ($6,900) … 37th-9th-43rd-14th-9th-42nd-13th
Marc Leishman ($9,000) … 2nd-88th-52nd-9th-2nd-26th
Brandt Snedeker ($10,400) … 121st-2nd-1st-9th-2nd-42nd-86th
Horses for the course. Luke Guthrie fits the bill if you trust just two tournaments. Seung-Yul Noh has ben great (10-27-27) in three starts. Justin Leonard is a cheap flier who has three top 30s in his last four trips here. Nick Watney has won here and likes the area, he is someone to consider in the mid-tier.
Handpicked Value Plays
Brendon de Jonge ($6,500) … Chucky 3 Sticks almost made the cut here but CH3 has just three top 50s in eight starts this season, something is off. The Big Zimb on the other hand has six top 50s this season in seven events, including a runner-up at The McGladrey. He’s missed the cut here three times but the other three has yielded top 30s. His course history is sneakily okay… with a median round of 70. If he can avoid the big number this week, look for him near the top. That’s a big if, but his price makes him worth the risk.
Ryo Ishikawa ($5,900) … Talked about him a few times this year as I like his potential this season. Now he has the course history to add fuel to the fire, it’s finally time to invest. He’s coming off back-to-back missed cuts but three top 30s before that. His track record at Torrey Pines include two top 15s in three trips with just one round over-par.
Luke Guthrie ($4,800) … Owns six-of-eight Torrey Pines rounds under-par on his way to a pair of top 25s. He sports a 23-for-33 cuts made record over the last two seasons and is not even close to his full potential. I think we’ll look back before the season’s over and laugh at this sub-$5K price.
January 28, 2015
Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview
Grab a Moscow Mule and buckle up. We are about to talk Waste Management Phoenix Open. Wait a minute, I don’t even like Moscow Mules, gross. Grab an iced tea or even an Arnold Palmer. Much better.
This week the PGA TOUR heads to Arizona, where another big event in the sporting world also happens to be taking place (Hint: It’s the Super Bowl). The course this week is TPC Scottsdale which runs as a par 71 stretching to 7,266 yards but it wasn’t always this long. After last year’s WMPO, Tom Weiskopf came by and had some fun with the course. He relaid the greens, they are now TiEagle Bermudagrass. He stretched many of the holes, adding over 100 yards in total. He got rid of bunkers but also used ShotLink to add new bunkers in common places some of the bombers frequently crushed it. There were a few other tweaks but those were the things that stood out to me.
Last year I pointed out the correlation with driving distance but it is unclear whether the course changes will negate some of that length advantage. To be safe, I think sticking with tee-to-green specialists whether they are long off the tee or not will be the best approach. Head over to the Fantasy Golfanac for more angles and course horses.
Players to Watch
Phil Mickelson… The Arizona Stater has feasted on TPC Scottsdale in his career. Compiling three victories in the process. He co-led the field in birdies last week so you know he’s ready to rock.
Bubba Watson… Another lefty who crushes this course. Is it that the course sets up so well for lefties or is it just because these two stars know the area well and are just great golfers? When you add three top 10s from Weir and three top 25s from a journeyman like Greg Chalmers…there may be something in the layout that suits the southpaws.
Gary Woodland… Was featured in last year’s preview and he didn’t disappoint too badly. Now he’s entering with two podium finishes in three starts this season… Gotta like when trends converge like this.
Scott Piercy… Another guy who has converging trends and looks poised to return to the podium. He’s a true gamer and seems like a guy that is so competitive that he will pick up a new game or sport that you’ve been playing for years and crush you before the day is over. Getting back to more relevant things, he has five top 15s in six trips here. Say hello to my OAD this week.
Hunter Mahan… Also highly considered in OAD and featured in last year’s preview as well. Turns out I like a lot of the same guys this week that I did last year. Mahan looks to be back in form recently and his track record here is great with a win and a bag full of other treats. He even has a win over at Dove Mountain so you know he loves this desert golf.
Kevin Na… This guy feasts on desert golf as well. He has four top 5s here in nine tries and is playing just fine as of late. Is this the week he finally gets back in the winner’s circle?
Matt Kuchar… I’m on the fence about Koooch this week. On one hand, he has just one top 30 in six trips here. On the bright side, three of those poor outings were 2004 or before and he now crushes every venue. I was strongly fading early in the week but now I think he’s just too steady to avoid.
Brooks Koepka… Returning to play in America after a profitable fall overseas. Not sure if he’ll need a warmup event on U.S. soil to get back on track but his recent form is some of the best in the field. Tops 20s in eight of his last 11, three of those on the PGA TOUR.
Brendan Steele… This has the same feel as anytime Charles Howell III is expected to do well. We all know how that usually turns out. Steele has three straight top-six finishers here and a runner-up finish last week. Everything looks really good on paper but paper doesn’t always play out.
Jason Dufner… Ignore last week’s missed cut and Dufner is actually playing great. He’s even putting well. Maybe his belly was getting in the way before. The new slimmer version 2.0 of Dufner looks like a good pick this week.
Ryan Moore… Love desert golf and has four top 15s in his last six visits here. His WD last week may be a case of just wanting to get the heck outta dodge instead of wasting another day when your out of contention. If it was a legit injury then you have that to worry about. Too much risk to lead with Moore this week.
Tiger Woods… You thought I forgot about him, didn’t you? Nope. His chipping display at his charity event was putrid and I’m sure he’s been spending five hours a day getting that locked in. Now another facet of his game will go away this week. I think it’ll take him a few more tournaments to get dialed back in.
Top 25 for the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open
1. Bubba Watson
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Hunter Mahan
4. Matt Kuchar
5. Gary Woodland
6. Scott Piercy
7. Kevin Na
8. Keegan Bradley
9. Rickie Fowler
10. Jordan Spieth
11. Brendan Steele
12. Ryan Palmer
13. Jason Dufner
14. Bill Haas
15. Tiger Woods
16. Harris English
17. Brandt Snedeker
18. Hideki Matsuyama
19. Zach Johnson
20. J.B. Holmes
21. Patrick Reed
22. Brooks Koepka
23. Billy Horschel
24. Russell Henley
25. Nick Watney
Turn $2 into $5,000 this week on DraftKings. Draft Now!
January 27, 2015
02 Waste Management Phoenix Open Happy Hour
This week Joel and I talk Waste Management Phoenix Open as Tiger and the field take on TPC Scottsdale. We discuss DraftKings salaries, Yahoo! lineups and also the introduction of DFS Golf to Victiv.
Draft at DraftKings: http://partners.draftkings.com/aff_c?offer_id=832&aff_id=26
Try out Victiv: https://www.victiv.com/affiliate?code=0fWbi0JGoyI2
Waste Management Phoenix Open – DraftKings Edition
Let’s get this part started! The atmosphere will be bumpin’ at TPC Scottsdale and DraftKings has upped the stakes to reflect the importance of this awesome event. Tiger Woods is returning, but will you want to draft him this week? More about that tomorrow in the full fantasy preview. For now, let’s review the FoF DraftKings Golf Tour standings and also take a look at some lineup combinations for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale…
Feelin’ the Form
Robert Streb ($7,400) … 17th-8th-37th-8th-1st
Shawn Stefani ($7,000) … 15th-6th-2nd-25th-41st
Patrick Reed ($10,500) … 24th-1st-22nd-26th
Russell Henley ($8,600) … 17th-3rd-35th-4th
Matt Kuchar ($12,000) … 2nd-3rd-17th-22nd-21st
You only get $4,500 to close out this roster but there are actually quite a few options down there to consider. Ryo Ishikawa and Retief Goosen are two that stick out. This team is swinging well and should give you steady outputs. Others in-form golfers to consider include Matsuyama, Bohn, Bae, Steele, Palmer, Sabbatini, and Charley Hoffman. Brooks Koepka is also one to consider as he’s posted two top 10s and won overseas this fall.
Course Horse-tory
Ben Crane ($5,500) … 42nd-11th-2nd-18th-36th-72nd-4th
Hunter Mahan ($8,800) … 4th-16th-29th-1st-35th-79th
Scott Piercy ($8,400) … 15th-3rd-50th-8th-6th
Brendan Steele ($8,900) … 6th-6th-5th-53rd
Bubba Watson ($14,300) … 2nd-15th-5th-29th-36th-25th-70th
Talk about stacked course history. I will talk about the course renovations more in tomorrow’s full preview but you have to think most of the course horses will still have success here this week. The only problem with this lineup is we run out of cap space after the Bubba pick. You’ve got to throw a dart to find your final guy at $4,100. Other course horses to look at include Kevin Na, Nick Watney, Bryce Molder, Matt Every, Harris English, Jason Dufner, and William McGirt.
Handpicked Value Plays
Matt Every ($5,400) … He crushes bermuda, he crushes this course, he’s been getting crushed since winning his first PGA TOUR title. One of those things is not good, but this is a great venue for him to right the ship. With 9-of-12 rounds here under-par and a pair of top 10s in three visits, this price is certainly juicy.
Brandt Snedeker ($7,400) … Has a pair of top 10s this year after regaining his form late last season and has gone low here before. He has three top 10s at TPC Scottsdale, in fact including a runnner-up finish that came after holding the 54-hole lead. Very enticing at this price point.
Kevin Na ($7,100) … If Piercy is the king of desert golf, Kevin Na is his heir ready to take over in case anything happens. Living in Las Vegas, this kind of golf is right up his alley. In fact he has four top 5s here in nine attempts. Heyyyo.
