Josh Culp's Blog, page 52

Crowne Plaza Invitational Fantasy Preview

Don’t pack your carry-on bag just yet. After an exciting week in Irving, Texas we roadtrip down to Fort Worth, Texas, for this week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational. Last week we saw Mike Weir re-emerge from the depths and finally return to contention. Morgan Hoffmann backed up his solid Las Colinas debut to find himself in contention again. Marc Leishman backed up his horse for course tag, and we should look for both of them at the same time next year.

Moving on, we head to Colonial Country Club this week. The course is a par 70 that stretches to 7,204 yards. The fairways are tight and force golfers to win with their irons rather than pure power. Putting is important as most of the top finishers can roll the rock, but as we saw with Boo Weekley last year, it’s not a necessity.

Correlated Stats

I’ve narrowed down the stats this week to adjusted scoring, good drive percentage, and par 4 scoring. These are my primary focus, but was also intrigued by the following trends I found:

The average driving distance rank of top 10 CPI finishers over the past three seasons is 93rd. Bombers CAN have success here, but it won’t be due to their length. Long hitters will need to find another path to success this week.

9-of-10 past winners entered the CPI with a going for green of less than 59%, an indicator that conservative play is the route to take at Colonial. This doesn’t bode well for aggressive players in the field like DJ, Ryan Palmer, Adam Scott, Matt Jones, English, Stadler, Fowler, Matsuyama, Jimmy Walker, or Rory Sabbatini.

81% of CPI top 10 finishers over the past three seasons have entered the tournament with a good drive percentage inside the top 100. Some big names that currently sit outside of this threshold include: Bill Haas, Matt Jones, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Chris Kirk, Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey, and Jimmy Walker. History tells us that a couple of these might sneak into the top 10 but most will not.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

THE PLAYERS – Martin Kaymer, Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar

Puerto Rico Open – Chesson Hadley, Scott Brown, George McNeill

Humana Challenge Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson

WGC Bridgestone - Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott

Shell Houston Open- Matt Jones, D.A. Points, Hunter Mahan

Since THE PLAYERS moved to May, 6-of-8 Crowne Plaza winners had earned a top 25 at THE PLAYERS earlier in the season prior to winning. The other two? Weekley finished 48th at the PLAYERS last year and Sabbatini finished 44th at TPC Sawgrass prior to winning in 2007. Theoretically, you could stretch out this trend to say all eight champions have finished inside the top 50 at THE PLAYERS leading up to their Crowne Plaza victory.

Players to Watch

Zach Johnson: The horse is entering his course. This is one of the few spots ZJ absolutely crushes. In OAD leagues, you circle this one at the beginning of the year for Zach. He owns five top 10s in eight trips, and hasn’t finished worse than 30th.

Matt Kuchar: Kooch is killing it every time he tees it up. IF you want to nitpick and find a reason to avoid him this week, you can cite that he will be teeing it up for the 10th time in 14 weeks. Golf can be mentally exhausting, especially when it’s your job (how would I know?) so don’t be surprised if and when Kuchar finally comes back to reality.

Jason Dufner: The Duff Daddy is getting a lot of flack for poor form but in reality he still has three top 15s in nine stroke-play events. It may not be up to his standards, but he’s never really liked that whole consistency thing. Duff posted three rounds of 66 or lower here in 2012 on his way to a runner-up finish. His SGP that week was 1.200! Any course where Dufner can yield a positive SGP stat is one where I will back him again. I’m expecting a fourth top 15 of the year for Dufner this week.

Graham DeLaet: Long hitters haven’t feasted on Colonial, but GDL can get it done with his iron-play alone. Bentgrass greens usually make his putting serviceable, and he crushes par 70 courses. Look for the Canadian to be in contention yet again this week.

Boo Weekley: I’m seeing a lot of love for Boo to repeat this week just because he has done it before. Judging by the analysis around the industry, you would think Boo is a lock for a top 5 this week. Let’s not pretend that Weekley is a safe play. High ceiling? Sure. But the floor is extremely low, as well.

Bo Van Pelt: Just missed my top 25, but I talked about him yesterday in the DraftKings preview.

Daniel Summerhays: Already has seven top 25s this year, and now he’s playing on a course that requires precision over distance. Sign me up. Never Summerhays Ale ranks 13th in good drive percentage, 28th in par 4 scoring average, and 25th in scoring before the cut. Oh yeah, I like the sound of that.

John Huh: You could read last week’s DK preview where I cite his love for par 70s and texas courses, but let me sum it up for you: Huh has six top 20s in his last 11 Texas tournaments. That’s all you need to know, go lock him into your lineups.

Kevin Chappell: As our friends at Golfmanna pointed out, Chappell has been surprisingly consistent this year, making 12-of-16 cuts. He checks all the boxes as he’s got a 0.92 strokes gained-T2G, 34th in good drive percentage, and 43rd in par 4 scoring average. He’s made the cut here each of the past two seasons but has yet to have one of his signature go-low rounds. I think we see one this week and it’ll carry him toward a top-25 finish.

Brendon Todd: I admit it, I’m breaking my cardinal rule this week by backing a winner the week after. In this case, Todd is the perfect fit for Colonial, top 20 in par 4 scoring, good drive percentage, scoring before the cut, and adjusted scoring. Usually the winner’s salary gets ballooned on DFS sites after a win, but this week we see Todd’s salary remain calm, even decreasing on some sites.

Russell Knox: Kind of the Brendon Todd-lite, or maybe they are equals. Either way, Knox is one of the few I am considering this week without course experience. It’s a perfect fit for his play style.

Jordan Spieth: Spieth has improved his putting this year but his driving has taken a hit in the process. After finishing 8th in good drive percentage last year, he’s plummeted to 121st this year. We know he has good driving week in him, but his current driving woes scare me this week on a course where driving is crucial.

Bill Haas & Hunter Mahan & Rickie Fowler: All having somewhat quiet or disappointing seasons. All three have the potential to win this week. All three also have the potential to blow-up. These are three I’m willing to take a chance on this week.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational

1. Zach Johnson

2. Matt Kuchar

3. Jim Furyk

4. Graham Delaet

5. Adam Scott

6. Jordan Spieth

7. Bill Haas

8. Brendon Todd

9. John Huh

10. Jason Dufner

11. Rickie Fowler

12. Russell Knox

13. Kevin Na

14. Dustin Johnson

15. Charley Hoffman

16. Chris Kirk

17. Daniel Summerhays

18. Paul Casey

19. Chris Stroud

20. Hideki Matsuyama

21. Hunter Mahan

22. Ryan Palmer

23. Pat Perez

24. Kevin Chappell

25. Boo Weekley

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Crowne Plaza Contest to win $2,000

Fantasy Golf Contests

DraftKings: Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

Crowne Plaza Invitational – DraftKings Edition

Brendon Todd! What a surprise…kinda. Last week I mentioned that Todd was a DFS goldmine. Even though I expected a solid week out of Todd, getting his first PGA TOUR win was still way more than I expected. Todd was the eighth first-time winner this year, but don’t expect another one this week. Course knowledge has been key at Colonial Country Club.

Before the regular preview tomorrow, let’s take a look at some possible DraftKings lineup combinations. These are just spitball lineups, throwing things together to see what sticks. If any of the players stand out, then make note of it for your actual lineups. Here we goooooo….

Everything’s Bigger in Texas

Charley Hoffman ($8,400) Nine top 25s in last 13 Texas events.

Carl Pettersson ($7,200) Top 50s in seven of his last nine Texas tournaments.

Freddie Jacobson ($7,800) Six top 25s in his last 11 Texas events.

Rickie Fowler ($8,800) Top 10s in 2 of last 3 Texas, 29th place average finish in last five.

Hunter Mahan ($8,600) 37th or better in six of last seven Texas, including 2012 Shell Houston victory.

These guys all know how to handle the windy conditions in the Lone Star State.

Follow the Form

Rory Sabbatini ($8,500): 45th-38th-8th-17th-9th

Ben Martin ($7,000): 50th-15th-3rd

Paul Casey ($8,100): 16th-11th-18th

Kevin Kisner ($7,400): 16th-6th-34th-38th

Jim Furyk ($10,000): 2nd-2nd-7th-14th

Results shown are over the past six weeks. Sabbatini makes his second straight appearance. We asked last week whether he will he run out of steam playing his fifth straight week, and he sort of did, but still made the cut. I wouldn’t trust him for a sixth straight week, personally. This team will leave you with $9,900, enough cap for Spieth, DJ, or DeLaet.

Course Horse-tory

Zach Johnson ($10,300): 3rd-1st-4th-1st-9th

Tim Clark ($6,300): 7th-19th-56th-2nd-2nd

Geoff Ogilvy ($7,500): 19th-13th-59th-7th

Boo Weekley ($8,200): 1st-31st-55th-9th

Ryan Palmer ($8,700): 14th-5th-31st-77th-34th-15th

You can’t make a course horse team this week without Zach Johnson. Tim Clark reeks just like D.A. Points did last week. Bo Van Pelt is a good replacement option if you don’t trust Clark. This team is pretty stacked with course horses. This team has 12 top 10s in their last 24 attempts.

Handpicked Value Plays

Chris Stroud ($7,600): Stroud is going through a rough patch but his 7-of-10 rounds under-par at Colonial speaks for itself. Stroud is 14th in scoring before the cut, 28th in par 4 scoring average, and decent enough driving (70th good drive percentage) to avoid trouble. Five of his seven top 20s this year have come on shorter courses less than 7,200 yards. At 7,204 yards, Colonial should be more his style than the lengthy Zurich/Wells Fargo combo he recently flopped at.

Bo Van Pelt ($7,900): BvP missed the course horse team somehow. Okay, I know how. I was just using results since 2008 and while his course history is still great since then, it goes much deeper. He’s a perfect 10-for-10 here at Colonial with six finishes of 19th place or better. Booyakasha!

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000): A risky pick, for certain. Matsuwithdrawma is no stranger to the pre and mid-tourney W/Ds. However, he’s posted top 25s in five of his six events played on bentgrass greens, and four of his five events played on par 70 courses. If he can minimize his errant drives this week (135th in good drive percentage) then he should be in contention. That’s kind of a big IF, though.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Crowne Plaza Contest to win $2,000

Fantasy Baseball Reflections: Talking to your ace pitcher

Brett Lewis is a sports writer and student in Raleigh, North Carolina. His fantasy sports reflections are not analysis, but rather thoughts on the culture and societal significance of fantasy sports for your reading pleasure.

The ace of the Dirty Dicks pitching staff stood before his manager at Durham Bulls Athletic Park in Durham, North Carolina, on a balmy May evening. He was ready to take questions from the manager. And indeed, he did answer a question.

However, the social structure that brought the team’s ace and manager together limited their communique to subjects only tangentially germane to his performance on the Dirty Dicks, a fantasy baseball team in the Campbell Law League (a proud fantasy baseball league steeped in three years of tradition).

The pitcher was Chris Sale, who threw four dominate innings that night for the Charlotte Knights, a triple-A affiliate of the Chicago White Sox, against the Durham Bulls while on a rehab assignment for a left-arm flexor muscle strain he suffered in April.

The manager of the Dirty Dicks, a team named after the United States’s 37th President, was me, a scrivener who passes his time between law school graduation and studying for the bar exam by picking up writing assignments for the Durham Herald-Sun.

Sale threw four innings, tossing 68 pitches, 43 of which went for strikes. He stuck out 11 Bulls while only walking Jerry Sands twice. He gave up no runs and left the game with his team of third dignity (the team of first dignity is my fantasy team, of course, the second is the White Sox and the third are the Charlotte Knights) with a 1-0 lead. He gave up only one hit, a meekly struck single that rolled down the third-base line, moving too slow for the third baseman to make a play on a hustling Robby Price. Sale struck out the next three batters to end any nonsense the Bulls may have imagined of actually scoring a run on his watch.

As the press contingency, which included a guy from the Chicago Tribune and some other reporters of reputable publications, crowded into a room near the visitor’s locker room after the first game of the night’s doubleheader, I scrambled to think of questions to ask the Dirty Dicks’ ace.

Three general thoughts came to mind: First, I wanted to say, screw what management says about you needing another rehab outing. You looked great. I need you to come back to the White Sox rotation posthaste to put up those sub-1.00 WHIP and 2.30 ERA stats. Essentially, that question would have been posed like this: “When are you coming back? I need you!” Second, I wanted to ask Sale whether there were any players on my roster that needed to be cut (thinking of you Carlos Santana) and replaced with guys he had inside knowledge about. And third, this isn’t a question at all, but I wanted to say, “thank you” for elevating my team to the playoffs last year. The Dirty Dicks could not have done it with you, Chris.

But there is a sense of duty that every man must face when he’s executing the tasks of his job. This duty is hyper sensitized when he’s in a room with his peers and the performance of the said duty is being recorded for MLB.com. The duty that I was charged with that night was to write a story about the night’s doubleheader baseball games that would hold the interest of Durham Herald-Sun readers.

And so the bifurcated question I asked went somewhat along the lines of this: “Chris, have you ever pitched in this ballpark before?” And, “What is it like to throw in your first minor league game since 2010 on a rehab assignment?” Sale’s answer was perfect for the story I was writing: “This (DBAP) was the first place I pitched when I was in triple-A. It brought back some good memories.”

There it was: Local tie in. Story wrote itself.

[image error]However, before I could ask those hard-hitting fantasy baseball questions, the press conference was over. Sale, who was wearing a silly shirt that said “All me/PED Free,” as if anyone would think his lengthy and sinewy 6’ 6’’ 180 lb. frame was on performance enhancing drugs, was swiftly ushered out of the room by a Knights media personnel guy less than five minutes after the press conference had started.

Although we did not get to talk about the fantasy baseball concerns that matter, there was something tangible in the way the manager of a fantasy baseball team could ask a question of his two-time all star pitcher. A rare thing, I’m supposing here, but one still stiflingly subject to duties that were non-fantasy baseball related.

Bummer.

Notwithstanding the social constraints that frustrate us sports writers who also manage fantasy baseball teams, Sale’s performance spoke for itself. The Bulls, yes, only a minor league team, own the best record in the best league below the Major Leagues, and Sale dispatched of them like they were the two-egg special at the local diner.

The Dirty Dicks will have their ace back soon. Peril to all who face him.

Find more musings from Brett Lewis on his personal blog, The First Draft.

HP Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview

I’ve had nearly three days to process the PLAYERS but I still can’t get that putt from Kaymer out of my head. So clutch, I can only imagine how social media and golf media in general would have exploded if that would have been Tiger or Phil instead of Martin Kaymer.

Then there was the photo posted by Stephanie Wei of Kaymer sitting on the airport floor charging his phone. PGA golfers are normal human beings! Whoda thunk it?

Moving on, this week we have the HP Byron Nelson Championship in Irving, Texas. The course is TPC Four Seasons which plays 7,166 yards and is a par 70 track. The greens are bentgrass and the field is relatively weak compared to recent weeks. The field has played the course over-par on average each of the past four years. A weak field on a difficult course? No wonder the cream usually rises to the top here.

Now let’s take a look at some stats and correlated tournaments that may help you this week.

Correlated Stats

Adjusted Scoring, Par Breakers, Par 4 Scoring, and Strokes Gained-tee2green are the four stats I’ve narrowed in on this week.

The last six winners were all ranked inside the top 60 in Par Breakers the year they won here. On a difficult course like this, it’s important to be able to convert on any chances you get to go low.

5-of-6 past winners have been ranked in the top 65 in driving distance the year they won here. Being long off the tee can certainly help around TPC Four Seasons.

5-of-6 past winners have been ranked outisde the top 80 in strokes gained-putting the year they won here. Most who excel here are at least decent putters but as you can see from this stat, it is not necessary to be a great putter to win here. Sang-Moon Bae is the exception, not the rule here.

5-of-6 winners had a strokes gained-tee2green of 0.69 or greater. Once again, Bae is the exception. That number is generally inside the top 30 on TOUR most years. Considering the weak field, you might be able to narrow down the winner to the top 5 or 10 in this category. The current top 10 strokes gained-t2g in the field: Graham DeLaet, Harris English, Gary Woodland, Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Robert Streb, Boo Weekley, Charles Howell III, Keegan Bradley. Just outside the top 10 but still over the threshold of 0.69 are Dufner, Moore, Vijay, Charl, Toms, Kaymer, Palmer, Casey, Ryo, and Byrd. I will be a little surprised if the winner doesn’t come from that list of 20 golfers.

Tee Times: Over the past two years 11 of the 13 golfers that finished in the top 5 started the week with an AM tee time. However, four of five started with a PM tee time the year prior. This tells me that weather can be a big factor here and one wave is going to get the advantageous weather. Keep that in mind, and maybe throw in a few different lineups based on tee times and cover your bases.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

WGC Cadillac – Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose

WGC Bridgestone - Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott

Honda Classic – Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, Rory McIlroy

Valspar Championship- John Senden, Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald

Deutsche Bank Championship Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson

4-of-5 of these courses are either par 70 or par 71 courses. Two of them are played on bentgrass greens. The WGC events are correlated because although this week is a lot weaker field, the elite usually rise to the top here.

Players to Watch

Keegan Bradley: 1st, 24th, 2nd. That’s all you really need to know about Keegan this week. Those are his last three finishes at TPC Four Seasons. He’s entered Sunday inside the top 8 all three years. He fired a round of 10-under 60 in his opening round last year. Keegan should be #1 this week, or in the top 3 at the very least.

Jordan Spieth: I said to invest last week when many people were okay leaving Spieth off their teams due to no course history at TPC Sawgrass. Now that we have a weaker field, the whole world will jump on Spieth and I am ready to take a week off and let my #SpiethBoner simmer. You just don’t gain any ground on your competition by taking a golfer that will be so highly owned. The Texas Longhorn hasn’t been particularly lights-out in front of the home crowds in Texas, anyway. Very risky fade, but one that could certainly pay off if Spieth falls outside the top 25 this week. UPDATE: Although I tried, I couldn’t complete the true fade. I ended up with Spieth in a few places. Can’t say I’m too disappointed either. This guy is too good.

Marcel Siem: Watch out for this sneaky sleeper. Siem keeps falling in the world rankings but he keeps making cuts. He has finished inside the top 50 in 12 of his last 14 worldwide events. Very Molinari-esque in that regard. He also finished 33rd or better in both of his 2013 Texas events. Not recommending in Yahoo or OAD, but definitely a solid DFS investment.

Graham DeLaet: Just when everyone is off the scent, GDL will strike. I still consider him one of the better golfers without a win on TOUR. He has six top 10s in his last 13 events played on Bentgrass greens (46%). That means his top 10 percentage on greens other than bentgrass in that same time is 23% (6-for-26). Bingo!

Brendon Todd: Not getting a lot of love in most places (cough, DraftStreet, cough, cough). Four of his last five on bentgrass are 26th place or better. Five of his last six on par 70 courses are 26th or better. His last three stops in Texas are 43rd or better. He’s made 13-of-16 cuts on the season. Todd is a DFS goldmine this week.

Dustin Johnson: After his scorching start, he’s returned to 2013 DJ, providing boatloads of frustration to fantasy owners. He still has five top 10s in eight stroke-play events on the year. He also has two top 10s to his name at the Byron Nelson. I’m ready to commit to DJ this week when a lot of gamers will be scared off by his recent form.

Marc Leishman: If you study Course Horseology, Leishman is one of your go-to guys this week. He’s finished 12th or better in four of his five stops here in Dallas.

Jason Dufner: Dufner won here in 2012 in a week where he lost 1.548 strokes to the field on the putting greens. Let that soak in for a while. That is a ball-striking exhibition if I’ve ever seen one. He will need a similar performance this week if he wants to repeat because his putter has been ice cold this year.

Charl Schwartzel: Another player that I haven’t heard enough about this week. He’s earned top 25s in 67% of his starts since 2013, he finished 3rd here last year, and should have no problems disposing of most of this weak field of a challenging golf course.

Justin Hicks: Finishes of 21st and 14th in previous Byron Nelsons and has been a steady-eddie this year.

D.A. Points: Has not been steady this year but has been a course horse at TPC Four Seasons. 19th or better in four of his last five here, 40th the other time. Given his recent form of six missed cuts in his last seven, you better lower your expectations to the 40th range. Decent DFS option.

My Top 25 for the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship

1. Keegan Bradley

2. Graham Delaet

3. Charl Schwartzel

4. Dustin Johnson

5. Matt Kuchar

6. Jordan Spieth

7. Jason Dufner

8. Harris English

9. Marc Leishman

10. Charles Howell III

11. Ryan Moore

12. Jimmy Walker

13. Freddie Jacobson

14. Ryan Palmer

15. Gary Woodland

16. Martin Kaymer

17. Brendon Todd

18. Brendon De Jonge

19. Paul Casey

20. Justin Hicks

21. John Huh

22. Danny Lee

23. Jeff Overton

24. Brian Stuard

25. Ryo Ishikawa

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Byron Nelson Contest to win $2,000

Fantasy Golf Contests

DraftKings: Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

HP Byron Nelson – DraftKings Edition

What a week we had at THE PLAYERS. Emphasis on the capital letters, there. If you’re anything like me, you are still in awe of Martin Kaymer’s clutch 30-foot par save on the par-3 17th to maintain a one shot lead over Jim Furyk. While we let that settle in our brains, let’s start looking at this week.

This week we head to Texas for the HP Byron Nelson Championship. It’s a par 70 course that stretches just past 7,100 yards. Pretty short by PGA standards but not exactly short by par 70 standards. That’s still over 100 yards per expected stroke. For that reason, we won’t use short course history, but we will use Texas history, Par 70 history, as well as Bentgrass greens history. Let’s get things started by looking at some possible lineup combinations at DraftKings:

Texas Steakhouse

Brice Garnett ($6,300) 7th-31st

Ryan Palmer ($9,000) 7th-56th-14th-33rd-15th-78th-5th-9th-32nd-21st-2nd-31st-104th-120th

Charles Howell III ($9,000) 124th-17th-10th-41st-20th-8th-19th

Freddie Jacobson ($8,500) 19th-16th-35th-17th-15th-18th-27th-31st-5th-110th

Jason Dufner ($9,200) 46th-33rd-2nd-1st-8th-107th

These guys all know how to handle the windy conditions in the Lone Star State. Results listed are their results at Texas tournaments since the start of 2011.

Follow the Form

Rory Sabbatini ($8,500): 38th-8th-17th-9th

Retief Goosen ($7,800): 48th-50th-21st-7th

Erik Compton ($7,800): 34th-5th-68th-12th

Kevin Kisner ($7,400): 6th-34th-38th-68th

Matt Kuchar ($10,200): 17th-1st-5th-2nd

Results shown are over the past six weeks. A lot of under the radar option combined with the big gun, Kuchar. Sabbatini is a previous winner here and has strung together a lot of good rounds recently. Will he run out of steam, though, playing his fifth straight week? Leaves you $8,300 for a Paul Casey, Justin Hicks, or Robert Streb.

Course Horse-tory

Marc Leishman ($8,100): 12th-3rd-111th-12th-8th

D.A. Points ($6,300): 12th-19th-40th-7th-3rd

Dustin Johnson ($9,300): 20th-7th-4th-63rd

Charles Howell III ($9,000): 17th-41st-20th-45th

Keegan Bradley ($9,700): 2nd-24th-1st

This team is pretty stacked with course horses. This team has 16 top 25s in 21 attempts. You’ve got $7,600 left to find a suitable 6th and final golfer for this squad.

Handpicked Value Plays

Danny Lee ($6,700): If you’re a frequent reader of the columns then you know Danny Lee has been on my radar for about a month now. He’s been so close to putting it all together and this could be the week. He live in Irving, Texas. Hello! He posted a 13th place finish here back in 2009 as an 18 year old. Then he showed up strong again in 2012 with a 19th place finish. 14 of his last 22 rounds are under-par including some real low rounds. Form + History + Local knowledge = VALUE PLAY.

John Huh ($7,500): Huh loves to play in Texas and that is what stands out to me. He has top 25s in five of his last 10 trips to Texas. Top 10s in three of those. But wait, there’s more. Huh is also a big fan of the par 70 layouts. He has top 25s in four of his last nine tournaments played on par 70 tracks. He landed on the podium recently at the Heritage and played well for two rounds last week before fading on Saturday. Huh also finished 8th here last year. Booyah, thats another VALUE PLAY.

Brice Garnett ($6,300): Mr. Consistent finally missed another cut his last time out but now he returns to Texas where he posted his only top 10 of his young career as well as a 31st place finish. His lack of high finishes scares me a little, but if you need a safe option, Garnett is a very solid option this week.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Byron Nelson Contest to win $2,000

THE PLAYERS Fantasy Preview

Welcome to PLAYERS Championship weekend. It’s known as the fifth major, and annually one of the strongest fields of the year. All the elite make sure to tee it up for this one so they can try to grab a piece of the largest purse of the year.

The course is the iconic TPC Sawgrass, a par 72 course that plays around 7,215 yards. DFS sites are running some monster contests this week. Check out the Pressure Putt on DraftKings as well as the Big Score on DraftStreet.

Correlated Stats

Adjusted Scoring, Scrambling, Par 4 Scoring, Sand Save Percentage, and Strokes Gained-Putting are the five stats I’ve narrowed in on this week.

6-of-9 past winners have been ranked outside the top 80 in driving distance the year they won here. Long hitters lose a lot of their length advantage at TPC Sawgrass.

9-of-10 past winners have been ranked inside the top 80 in strokes gained-putting the year they won here. TPC Sawgrass leads non-major courses with most three putts or worse since 1992. These greens are tricky and poor putters can find themselves losing A LOT of strokes if they aren’t dropping it 5 feet from the hole with their approach shots.

7-of-9 winners have finished the season ranked inside the top 60 in scrambling the year they won here. Scrambling is not always about how good of a chipper or short iron golfer you are, it’s also the ability to make those pesky 5 to 8 footers to save pars.

Five of the last six winners finished the season 20th or better in sand save percentage. Once again, putting an emphasis on good scramblers and putters.

Tee Times: Since moving to May, 5-of-6 PLAYERS winners have started the tournament off with an AM tee time. Tiger broke that perfect trend last year, but that’s what Tiger does. Not a substantial sample size, but 5-of-6 might be worth giving a tiny boost to AM tee times.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

Crowne Plaza -Boo Weekley, Zach Johnson, David Toms

FedEx St Jude – Harris English, Dustin Johnson, Harrison Frazar

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Matt Every, Tiger Woods, Tiger Woods

Valspar Championship- John Senden, Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald

Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jimmy Walker, D.A. Points, Phil Mickelson

These course all make a lot of sense (except maybe Pebble?). The first four course are all of similar length, between 7200 and 7400 yards. All four generally have a winning score in the 12 to 15-under-par range. Three of the five are played on Bermuda greens.

Also worth noting that six of the last seven winners had earned a top 25 at the WGC Cadillac earlier in the season. Also, since moving to May, 4-of-7 winners also notched a top 25 at the Masters that year. Those are a couple more leaderboards you could take a look at.

Players to Watch

Matt Kuchar: Kooch is the hottest golfer on the planet, but I don’t love him coming off a victory. He is a level-headed player but it’s hard to focus when you have so much media attention asking about your recent win. His previous results after winning on TOUR: 35th, 28th, 15th, 11th, 7th, 28th. Not terrible by any means, but only one finish inside the top 10. I’m hopping off the Kuchar train for at least this week.

Bubba Watson: Same story as Kuchar above. I try to fade players coming off big wins, and the Masters certainly qualifies as a big win. Add in that Bubba has never finished better than 37th and he’s an easy fade.

Sergio Garcia: The 2008 champion has six top 15s at the PLAYERS. He’s 15-under-par for his career at TPC Sawgrass, and that makes him one of, if not thee, favorite this week.

Henrik Stenson: This might be Stenson’s favorite/best course to play at. He’s 23-under-par in his career and is 5-for-8 when it comes to sealing top 15s.

Jordan Spieth: Doesn’t have the course experience but when has that mattered for Spieth? He followed up his runner-up finish at the Masters with a 12th place finish at RBC Heritage. It could be a good week to invest in him while others are avoiding due to lack of course history.

Luke Donald: Donald doesn’t lack the course history. He’s 22-under-par in his career at TPC Sawgrass and hasn’t finished outside the top 40 since 2006.

Thomas Bjorn: Bjorn has been a popular sleeper of mine all year across DFS sites, but I’m a little concerned this week. He’s 5-for-10 hitting the 17th green in his career. I don’t want to risk the big numbers that water balls could lead to.

Steve Stricker: Another golfer I’m fading this week. He’s 38-over-par in his career at TPC Sawgrass. There is no need to take a risk when there are so many other options this week.

Russell Knox: Went to college 30 minutes away at Jacksonville University and has been an absolute stud this year. He’s finished 32nd or better in 11-of-15 starts and I’m expecting another one this week.

My Top 25 for the 2014 PLAYERS Championship

1. Sergio Garcia

2. Luke Donald

3. Adam Scott

4. Jordan Spieth

5. Zach Johnson

6. Henrik Stenson

7. Rory McIlroy

8. Jimmy Walker

9. Justin Rose

10. Matt Kuchar

11. Jim Furyk

12. Phil Mickelson

13. Charl Schwartzel

14. Keegan Bradley

15. Graeme McDowell

16. Hunter Mahan

17. Freddie Jacobson

18. Kevin Na

19. Bubba Watson

20. Graham Delaet

21. Lee Westwood

22. Kevin Streelman

23. Jason Dufner

24. Harris English

25. Russell Knox

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Fantasy Golf Contests

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DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

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THE PLAYERS Championship – DraftKings Edition

This is the week we’ve all been waiting for. At least for us DFS golfers who have been waiting for the next big event since the Masters ended. Considering the PLAYERS is often called the “fifth major” the DFS sites give it some extra love and run some extravagant contests. For example, our friends at DraftKings are running a $200 contest where 18% of contestants get paid and the winners goes home $25,000 richer. Don’t worry, they offer $27 and $2 versions as well.

Think you have what it takes to beat out 82% of other fantasy golfers? If so, it’s definitely a solid investment. The salaries are not easy by any means this week. That is why I am here to give you some possible lineup combinations using various angles. We will start with the scrambling team, the good form team, and then finish with the course horses.

Scrambled Eggs

Justin Leonard ($6,500) Ranked 3rd in Scrambling

Kevin Na ($8,600) Ranked 2nd in Scrambling

Chris Stroud ($8,500) Ranked 6th in Scrambling

Brian Gay ($7,000) Ranked 5th in Scrambling

Francesco Molinari ($8,300) Ranked 8th in Scrambling

Seven of the last nine winners have finished the season ranked inside the top 60 in scrambling the year they won THE PLAYERS. So, let’s scramble away. Other top 10 ranked scramblers in the field: Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson.

Follow the Form

Rory Sabbatini ($8,200): 8th-17th-9th

Martin Flores ($7,600): 3rd-52nd-17th-16th

Charley Hoffman ($8,200): 5th-38th-37th-11th

Freddie Jacobson ($8,500): 29th-19th-16th

Scott Brown ($7,000): 30th-5th-36th

These golfers are swinging some hot sticks. Results shown are over the past six weeks. During that six week stretch, Martin Flores is the only golfer on the team with a finish outside of the top 50. Woah. This also leaves you with $10.5K for the final golfer. That gives you a lot of good options.

Course Horse-tory

Ben Crane ($4,900): 8th-73rd-45th-4th-5th-6th

Kenny Perry ($7,700): 39th-22nd-22nd-15th

Luke Donald ($10,100): 19th-6th-4th-26th-37th-27th

Martin Kaymer ($8,700): 43rd-15th-19th-34th-55th

Chris Stroud ($8,500): 33rd-94th-12th-10th

All with solid course history at TPC Sawgrass. Results shown are PLAYERS results since 2008. The options at $7,800 for your final golfer aren’t great but I’m sure you can find SOMEONE to help finish out this course horse-tory team.

Handpicked Value Plays

Ben Crane ($7,200): In a week where DraftKings has really tightened their pricing, value plays are hard to come by. With four top 10s in his last six appearances here, it’s hard to overlook Ben Crane this week. He’s coming off three straight missed cuts, so he’s not exactly a safe option. If you want to feel better about yourself, his four PLAYERS top 10s came directly after missed cuts. In the two appearances where he didn’t rack up top 10s here, he entered those weeks with finishes of 21st and 20th the weeks before. I guess he likes to come in cold.

Will MacKenzie ($7,500): Another golfer that is entering the week with three missed cuts as his latest results. Although he has certainly cooled off, $7,500 is still incredibly cheap for a golfer with nine top 25s in 16 events on the season. Returning to his home state of Florida may be just what he needs to get back on track.

Justin Leonard ($6,500): A previous winner of the tournament at $6,500, why not? He hasn’t exactly been dominating TPC Sawgrass since that victory, but he is a steady-eddie. Take a look at the golfers priced under $7,000 and it will be hard to find another golfer with a 81% cuts made percentage since the beginning of 2013.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

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Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview

Last week’s tournament in New Orleans can be summed up rather quickly, ugly. Seung-yul Noh and Jeff Overton both had question marks on their health, yet Noh went on to win and Overton secured a top 5. Robert Garrigus had some horrific course history but also found his way into the top 5. Andrew Svoboda, Robert Streb, Erik Compton, and Charley Hoffman rounded out the top 5. Talk about a stellar cast of golfers.

This week should be quite different, as the field is anchored by some much bigger names, and the winner won’t be sniffing 20-under par by the end of the week.

The course is Quail Hollow Club. It’s long, stretching out to 7,562 yards, and the story of the week will be the new green surfaces. Ultradwarf bermuda have been put in this year, and may shake things up a bit.

Correlated Stats

Adjusted Scoring, Par Breakers, Driving Distance, Going for the Green, and Strokes Gained-T2G are the five stats I’m looking at this week.

8-of-9 past winners have been ranked inside the top 65 in driving distance the year they won here. Been spendin’ most our lives livin’ in a bombers paradise.

7-of-9 past winners have been ranked inside the top 40 going for the green the year they won here. This equates to aggressive players that are confident with their long irons. Rory, Woodland, Matt Jones, Jimmy Walker, and Jason Kokrak lead the field currently.

6-of-9 previous winners have had a strokes gained-T2G greater than 1.15 the year they won. That generally falls inside the top 10 on TOUR. The current leaders in this tee-to-green category include: Rory McIlory, Jamie Donaldson, Gary Woodland, Jim Furyk, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, and Chris Stroud.

6-of-9 winners were ranked inside the top 50 in par breakers the year they won here. Notable golfers this currently excludes: Jim Furyk, Lee Westwood, Hunter Mahan, Nick Watney.

7-of-9 past WFC winners were ranked outside the top 100 in driving accuracy the year they won here. Grip it and rip it!

Tee Times: Last week’s tee trend of Thursday afternoon tee times continued with Seung-yul Noh. That makes it 7-of-9 Zurich winners. Remember that for next year. For this week, the last four winners have had AM tee times on Thursday, but the five winners before that had PM tee times. I will file that under “inconclusive evidence” but AM tee times generally have an advantage here on a day-by-day basis.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

Reno Tahoe Open – Gary Woodland, J.J. Henry, Scott Piercy

Pebble Beach Pro Am – Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker, Phil Mickelson

The Masters – Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Bubba Watson

TOUR Championship- Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas

AT&T National: Bill Haas, Tiger Woods, Nick Watney

Most of these courses are lengthy courses just like Quail Hollow or played on bermudagrass greens. It’s also worth noting that four of the last nine winners have collected top 25s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and/or the Masters earlier in the year before winning at Quail Hollow.

Players to Watch

Harold Varner III: Got in via sponsor invite, and went to school four hours away (ECU). He posted an opening round 69 at the Northern Trust before admittedly getting starstruck. In the fall he won three of four eGolf events he played in. In 2013, he played 19 events on the eGolf Tour, and played the par 5s at 91-under-par for those events. At 5’8″ he is surprisingly long ala Thorbjorn or Charl. I like HV3 as my super sleeper this week.

Webb Simpson: A member of Quail Hollow, should be very in-tune with the new green surfaces. Word on the street is his third child is due in May, anyone know when the due date actually is? Webb should be a great play but I would hate to get Mahan’d this week.

Rory McIlroy: Owns the course, and fits the mold of winners perfectly. Makes sense, seeing that he already owns one victory here. If he brings his A or even B-game, he should post at least a top 10.

Gary Woodland: The course history isn’t there but with new green surfaces, maybe that is a good thing. Woodland has improved his tee-to-green game by leaps and bounds. A top 40 should be a lock, the rest is dependent on how well he putts this week.

Jason Kokrak: Lives in Charlotte, is a bomber, great tee-to-green game, and is still hungry for that first PGA Tour victory. Makes a lot of sense this week. He entered Sunday in 10th place last year before fading, so you know he can contend here.

Jonas Blixt: The Masters performance was impressive but he relies too much on his putter for me to back him consistently. I consider him to be a mini version of Zach Johnson, I will save him for par 70 courses.

Rickie Fowler: Loves this course, proven by his 2012 victory, 2010 sixth place, and his 16th place finish in 2011. I see him getting back into contention this week after burning so many last week.

Phil Mickelson: This should be the course he gets back on track as he’s still searching for his first top 10 of the season. He owns seven of those at Quail Hollow in 10 tries.

Stewart Cink: Has four top-15 finishes here in the last six years, and has only three missed cuts this season. Don’t mind if I do!

Lee Westwood: Went over and won on the European/Asian Tour. What a shocker. That’s why his World Ranking got so high in the first place. Now he returns to the PGA Tour where he is still 2-for-190 in converting wins. I’m ready for another letdown this week.

Danny Lee: I love what he’s doing since changing to the claw grip at the Puerto Rico Open. Once he starts putting together four good rounds he is going to be a force. Or at least win once. At this point, he is still too shaky to completely trust.

Jamie Donaldson: He’s put together a remarkable run, but I don’t want to be there when he hits the wall. I’m backing off for the time being.

George McNeill: Just snuck into my top 25. With four finishes of 22nd place or better at Quail Hollow, I like McNeill to bounce back this week.

Robert Karlsson: A local resident that finally finds his way into his fourth event of the season. All three have been top 15s, but two of those came during the wrap-around weak fields and the third came in the alternate event, Puerto Rico Open.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Wells Fargo Championship

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Jimmy Walker

3. Jim Furyk

4. Justin Rose

5. Gary Woodland

6. Rickie Fowler

7. Phil Mickelson

8. Webb Simpson

9. Lee Westwood

10. Jason Kokrak

11. Zach Johnson

12. Ryan Moore

13. Bill Haas

14. Hunter Mahan

15. Matt Jones

16. Charles Howell III

17. Pat Perez

18. Nick Watney

19. Chris Kirk

20. Jamie Donaldson

21. Chris Stroud

22. Kevin Na

23. J.B. Holmes

24. Stewart Cink

25. George McNeill

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Fantasy Golf Contests

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GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

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Wells Fargo Championship – DraftKings Edition

After a crazy week in New Orleans where a lot of C-List golfers found themselves in contention, we now head to Charlotte for the Wells Fargo Championship. The strength of field is back up to a reasonable level, as the fields boasts 21 golfers inside the OWGR Top 50.

This week is also the last week to qualify via satellite for the huge PLAYERS Championship contest hosted by DraftKings. The contest is called the Pressure Putt and is $200 to enter but you can win your way in via satellite for much cheaper.

The Wells Fargo Championship is played on another long course, and don’t let Derek Ernst fool you, this tournament is generally won by elite tee-to-green golfers. Ernst was an outlier, you might say.

Tee to Green

Jamie Donaldson ($8,600) 1.77 strokes gained-T2G

Gary Woodland ($9,000) 1.72 strokes gained-T2G

Chris Stroud ($8,300) 1.10 strokes gained-T2G

Jason Kokrak ($8,700) 1.01 strokes gained-T2G

Jonathan Byrd ($6,700) 0.74 strokes gained-T2G

If you want to stack your team with tee-to-green specialists this week, I won’t blame you. The top 10 in the field include Rory, Donaldson, Woodland, Furyk, Rose, Fowler, Stroud, Matsuyama, ZJ, and Howell III. In order to keep things balanced, I skipped on a few of the top tee-to-green specialists. You are left with $8,700 for your last spot. That means you could take a chance on Matsuyama, Watney, or even J.B. Holmes.

Follow the Form

J.B. Holmes ($8,700): 11th-18th-12th-64th-10th

Brian Harman ($8,200): 7th-58th-16th-77th

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano ($7,600): 53rd-26th-35th

Jim Furyk ($9,700): 7th-14th-6th

Retief Goosen ($7,600): 21st-7th-129th-31st

These golfers are swinging some hot sticks. Results shown are over the past six weeks.

Course Horse-tory

Steve Marino ($4,900): 61st-21st-16th-38th-40th

Phil Mickelson ($10,500): 3rd-26th-9th-2nd-5th-12th

Lucas Glover ($6,400): 27th-117th-1st-22nd-2nd-69th

Nick Watney ($8,700): 10th-8th-136th-22nd-22nd-40th

Jim Furyk ($9,700): 26th-24th-7th-11th-7th

All with solid course history at Quail Hollow. Results are WFC results since 2008. The team is full of question marks but definitely has a lot of upside.

Handpicked Value Plays

Steve Marino ($4,900): Returned from injury at the Heritage with a nice 31st place finish before missing the cut last week. With a Quail Hollow record of 6-for-6 including five top 40s, I see no reason why you shouldn’t take a chance on a few teams.

Jonathan Byrd ($6,700): Had four finishes of 32nd place or better before missing the cut last week. With the Major Medical monkey off his back, he’s been playing without a care, and returning to form. His strokes gained-T2G is 0.74 on the season which makes his price tag very juicy. I just wish he was playing more aggressively as I am trying to target players with high going for the green percentages.

Harold Varner III ($5,500): High-risk with a possible high-reward. Got in via sponsor exemption just like the Northern Trust Open when he made the cut and impressed along the way. He hits some monster drives and went for the green 13 of the 16 possible holes at the NTO. That’s the kind of aggressive play I am willing to take a chance on.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

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Zurich Classic of New Orleans Fantasy Preview

Welcome back for another week of fantasy golf. It’s the middle of the season but we find ourselves with a rather bleak field this week. It comes in with a OWGR.com strength of field ranking of 191, which is what I categorize as WEAK SAUCE. Zurich has lost some rather good golfers this year. Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Bubba Watson to name a few. The show must go on, so here we are.

The course is TPC Louisiana, and it’s a long one. If you take a look at the scorecard, you’ll see 7,425 yards in-play, a plethora of bunkers, open fairways, and easy greens to putt on.

Correlated Stats

Scrambling was the name of the game last week, but scramblers need not apply this week. Last year, TPC Louisiana was third easiest course for scrambling percentage, 64.61%, so good scramblers lose their edge in that regard. Looking at previous winners, 6-of-8 winners have been ranked outside the top 80 in scrambling the year they won the Zurich.

Greens in Regulation… Once again, don’t get sucked into the GIR trap. The last three winners have all been GIR machines, but four of the five winners before that were mediocre at best when it comes to hitting greens. Picking golfers with GIR is okay, but don’t avoid golfers like Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Freddie Jacobson, Luke Guthrie, Patrick Reed, or Brooks Koepka just because they currently sit outside the top 70 in greens hit. It is more important to look at previous editions of this tournament, and how each golfer fared at hitting greens at TPC Louisiana. Don’t just blindly look at the list of GIR specialists and think it will translate to success here.

Par 4 and Par 5 Scoring… Each of the past five winners have played the par 4s at 5-under or better while playing the par 5s at 7-under or better. However, I grade par 4 scoring a little more important this week because the par 5s are very easy on this course. Let’s look at an example last year. Jason Bohn and Graham DeLaet both finished 47th place, both played the par 4s at 2-under while GDL played the par 5s at 8-under and Bohn played the par 5s at 7-under. Those par 5s scores are very similar to what we see from winners at this venue yet they still finished 47th place. The par 4s are where you separate yourself from the field this week.

Tee Times: I found an interesting tidbit while researching this week. Six of the eight winners at TPC Louisiana have started the week off with an afternoon tee time. It’s not just winners, either, 59% of the golfers that have finished in the top 5 here also started the week with an afternoon tee time. That’s a nice edge to have. When one wave of tee times has an advantage like this, and it’s over multiple years, I start to take notice. If you need a tie-breaker this week, consider giving Thursday afternoon wave a slight boost.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

Farmers Insurance Open – Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods, Brandt Snedeker

TOUR Championship- Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas

British Open – Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Darrne Clarke

Sony Open – Jimmy Walker, Russell Henley, Johnson Wagner

WGC Bridgestone – Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott

Only three golfers from the list are even in the field: Stallings, Els, and Keegan. Why do these courses correlate to success at the Zurich? The Farmers is a played on lengthy course (at least three of four rounds), similar to TPC Louisiana. The British Open is played on Links-style courses, TPC Louisiana is not too far off a links-style course. One thing I found similar in all these courses is the bunkers. All five courses have at least 70 bunkers, so that appears to be the common link this week.

I also found that four of the eight winners had top-25 finishes at the Humana the year of their Zurich win. This makes a lot of sense because the Humana is another easy course where birdies are on the agenda. Have a look at the 2014 Humana leaderboard and we might find it correlates nicely with this week’s Zurich Classic.

Players to Watch

Freddie Jacobson: He’s coming in like a wrecking ball, but with no course history and his tendency to let me down, I am backing off just a little. Freddie is known for his scrambling ability, but on a course with the third-easiest scrambling percentage, will it all go to waste? Possibly.

Cameron Tringale: I highlighted Tringale on my spreadsheet early in the week, so there was something I like about him, but I can’t remember why. Maybe it’s his 10 made cuts in last 11 tournaments. Maybe it’s his three top 30s in four appearances at TPC Louisiana. Both make him a great option this week.

Brooks Koepka: I don’t think he’s available on any DFS sites thanks to him getting in based on the Monday qualifier, but I like him to make a splash this week. BK is out of sponsor exemptions for the year, but he’s oh-so-close to earning Temporary Status. I think this is the week he gets it done.

Patrick Reed: Everyone deserves some off-weeks. For Reed they came at the wrong time (after his top 5 comments). On a track that often turns into a birdiefest, I like Reed to get back in contention this week.

Brian Davis: Seems like I mention him every week now. Anyway, he loves long courses and is 7-of-8 at TPC Louisiana.

Rickie Fowler: He’s trending in the right direction with back-to-back top 10s, and lengthy courses have always tickled his fancy. Don’t be gunshy on Rickie this week.

Charles Howell III: I hate playing him on lengthy courses but he’s fared well here in the past, likely due to the weak fields. This year is even weaker than usual, which makes him a solid option to show up on top of leaderboards.

Will MacKenzie: I got bit last week by Mr. MacK, but we’ll find out this week if he hops back on the train or if we see him return to normal Will MacKenzie. I’m hesitant this week.

Ryan Palmer: He can go low, proven by his 2nd place finish at this year’s Humana. He’s a long hitter that should really be able to take advantage of a lot of the short par 4s found on TPC Louisiana. The par 5s will be automatic for him.

Justin Rose: Always a risk taking a big name in a weak field like this, as they can get lackadaisical. With Rose’s course history and his recent injury, I think he will take this week very seriously and use it as a stepping stone for the remainder of the year.

Hudson Swafford: Swaffy has contended on easy courses and he should have no troubles with this weak field. I wouldn’t be surprised if he found himself inside the top 25 this week.

Brice Garnett: Garnett gave owners a scare last week starting off 4-over after his first nine holes (started on 10th tee). It would have been easy for him to lose composure and pull a MacKenzie or Na, instead he kept it together, and made his 12th cut of the season. He continues to be a DFS goldmine, and I will ride him again this week.

Thorbjorn Olesen: He will be off-the-radar to most after burning so many DFS owners already this year. After making the cut at lengthy Augusta National, his length should help him succeed again this week.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Zurich Classic

1. Ryan Palmer

2. Justin Rose

3. Rickie Fowler

4. Charles Howell III

5. Graham Delaet

6. Chris Stroud

7. Russell Knox

8. George McNeill

9. Patrick Reed

10. Keegan Bradley

11. John Senden

12. Matt Every

13. Charley Hoffman

14. Cameron Tringale

15. Billy Horschel

16. J.B. Holmes

17. Freddie Jacobson

18. Camilo Villegas

19. Brooks Koepka

20. Brendan Steele

21. Nick Watney

22. Will MacKenzie

23. Brice Garnett

24. Ernie Els

25. Daniel Summerhays

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Zurich Contest to win $1,500

Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.