Josh Culp's Blog, page 53

Zurich Classic of New Orleans – DraftKings Edition

This week we head to the Big Easy, where 156 pretty good golfers will be knocking around a white ball. Let’s skip the small talk for the full tournament preview tomorrow. Instead, let’s dive right into some possible lineups on DraftKings this week.

This Year’s Horschel

George McNeill ($8,800) 14th-7th-19th-12th-6th

Freddie Jacobson ($8,000) 19th-16th-10th-20th-12th

Graham DeLaet ($10,200) Five top 10s

Will Mackenzie ($8,700) Five top 10s

Charles Howell III ($9,400) Five top 10s

Billy Horschel came into last year’s Zurich on the tail-end of a 9th, 3rd, 2nd stretch of finishes with the 9th place being his fifth finish of the year inside the top 11. Seemingly just waiting to strike. Let’s try to grab some golfers on a similar trajectory or with a high amount of top 10s but no wins. Sorry to leave you with $4,100 on the last guy, but if one of these golfers wins and a couple other finish top 10, I don’t think you’ll need much scoring from your $4K golfer.

Follow the Form

J.B. Holmes ($8,700): 18th-12th-64th-10th-54th

Jonathan Byrd ($7,000): 31st-19th-32nd

Jerry Kelly ($8,600): 31st-6th-58th

Carl Pettersson ($8,800): 89th-31st-16th-20th

Freddie Jacobson ($8,800): 19th-16th-10th-20th

These golfers are swinging some hot sticks. Results shown are over the past six weeks. The fat Swede is the only one listed to missed a cut since the Valspar.

Course Horse-tory

David Hearn ($6,100): 21st-24th-46th

David Toms ($7,300): 47th-45th-18th-28th-5th

Daniel Chopra ($5,500): 45th-16th-34th-33rd

Rickie Fowler ($10,000): 32nd-10th-26th

Cameron Tringale ($8,400): 72nd-7th-18th-28th

All with solid course history at TPC Louisiana. The problem is you don’t need to dive this deep. After rostering these five guys, you have $13,200 left. You don’t want to leave that much cash on the table. Instead you could replace Chopra or Toms with John Senden, and still have quite a bit of cash left over for your sixth.

Handpicked Value Plays

David Toms ($7,300): It’s easy to overlook Toms this week with his 2014 form, but don’t forget about the local boy. His tee-to-green game is still top class, if he could only get the putter rolling. A local course where he’s finished top 50 or better each of the past six appearances just might do the trick.

David Hearn ($6,100): He’s improved his Zurich finish each time he’s played (52nd to 46th to 24th to 21st). If that trend continues, you’ll be looking at a top 20 finish, hi-yoo. It’s safe to expect Hearn to play the weekend and finish in the Top 40, which should be good for at least 50 DraftKings points. The price on Hearn seems about $1,000 too low.

Daniel Chopra ($5,500): High-risk with a possible high-reward. He’s finished inside the Top 45 all six appearance at TPC Louisiana. If you want to take the Stars & Scrubs approach, Chopra is a decent scrubs option.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

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RBC Heritage Fantasy Preview

What a week for Bubba Watson at Augusta National. He destroyed the par 5s, as usual, but it was his play on the par 3s that separated him. He played the par 5s at 8-under-par, the same score as last year when he finished T50th. The improvement on par 3s from 5-over-par to 1-under-par was the difference maker. It helps when you don’t shoot a 10 on one of the par 3s.

Moving on from the first major of the year, we travel three hours south to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. The course is a short one, just 7,100 yards, give or take 20 yards. The fairways are tree-lined and tight, the greens are tiny. We want golfers that can position themselves off the tee, and can scramble when they inevitably miss the greens. The average winning score of the past three winners in 12-under-par. A tough track, for certain.

In addition, the weather forecast is currently being very unkind. Wind is forecasted 10-20 mph all four days with gusts up in the 30 mph range. Rain is also a high possibility. Be on the lookout for that.

Now, let’s have a look at some indicators of success at Harbour Town.

Correlated Stats

Harbour Town has some difficult par 3s. Playing them under-par for the week is a huge advantage and basically a necessity if you want to win. Make sure you take a hard look at par 3 scoring average this week. 11 of the last 14 winners were ranked inside the top 75 in par 3 scoring during the year they won here.

Stat numero two is scrambling. These greens were the hardest to hit on TOUR last year, which means nobody is really going to hit GIR’s with consistency. Golfers will need to scramble there way to par saves in order to survive and advance. 10 of the last 14 winners were ranked 51st or better in scrambling during the year they won the Heritage.

One thing you want to be weary of is falling for the greens in regulation trap. It is well-noted that Harbour Town green surfaces are small and very difficult to hit. The GIR number was something like 57% last year, and the second toughest to hit inside 125 yards (only 75%). Everyone in the field is going to be missing their share of greens (unless your name is Boo). The golfers that are more familiar with missing greens are usually the ones that have a better scrambling game and will be able to scramble their way to pars while the GIR machines will be out of their element and settle for bogeys. If you need a stat to back up this claim, check this out: the last five Heritage winners were all ranked outside the top 90 in GIR during the year they won. The average season GIR rank for the past 14 winners here in 90th, as well.

Driving Distance is not important at all this week. It actually has a negative correlation to success here, so you could say bombers are at a big disadvantage this week.

The last stat I want to talk about is going for the green. I have been supporting this stat for a while now, but have to go in the opposite direction this week. Golfers that are ranked low in the going for the green stat are going to have success at Harbour Town. This represents golfers that have a conservative, grind-it-out play style. 8 of the last 12 Heritage winners have been ranked outside the top 80 in going for the green. Grandpa Golf is a plus this week.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

Valspar Championship – John Senden, Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald

Shell Houston Open- Matt Jones, D.A. Points, Hunter Mahan

Honda Classic – Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, Rory McIlroy

Waste MGMT – Kevin Stadler, Phil Mickelson, Kyle Stanley

Humana Challenge- Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson

The trends here seems to stem from difficult tracks (Valspar/Honda), Bermuda greens (Valspar/Shell/Honda/Humana), short courses (Humana/Honda/Waste), or par 71s (Valspar/Waste). The Farmers Insurance Open might also be considered a correlated tournament as 4 of the past 10 Heritage winners had a top 25 at the Farmers during the year they won here. Same can be said about the Waste MGMT Phoenix Open.

Players to Watch

Russell Knox: The Scot ranks 15th in scrambling, 18th in driving accuracy, 1st in par 3 scoring average. He’s not long off the tee, either, which is a good thing this week. Knox also finished 25th at Valspar, 2nd at Honda, 13th at Humana (all three are correlated tournaments). If his strokes gained-putting wasn’t outside the top 100, he would probably be inside my top 3 this week. Even with the mediocre putting, I will be owning him in a lot of places this week.

Zach Johnson: This course fits his game perfectly on paper, but that isn’t how it’s played out over his career. Only two top 25s in nine attempts, both being top 10s though. He dropped a little bit due to that course history but still should be in line for a top 25 with his current form.

Luke Donald: There is nothing missing from Donald’s course history resume. He has four top 3s in the past five years. He’s a short game wizard, so it makes perfect sense. He’s really ‘due’ for a win here at some point.

Kevin Na: With only one career PGA Tour victory to his name, I guess you could say Na is ‘due’ as well. He has 29 top-10 finishes in 123 events since 2009 (23.5%). He’s clearly got a few screws loose in his noggin, but to be lurking around the top so often, it’s just a matter of time before he picks off a few more victories.

Bill Haas: He’s been playing great golf this year but has missed the cut here five times in nine attempts. Never finishing higher than 24th. He was finally in contention last year, entering the final round in 6th place before shooting a 76 on Sunday to finish 24th.

Pat Perez: Perez is always in contention when the courses get tough. The course plays tough and the winner is near single-digits this week, then I like Pat Perez to be right in the mix.

Boo Weekley: Boo owns this course and should be in contention like always. However, he also should have more than two top 25s to his name at this point in the season. He hasn’t played well since his injury concerns at the beginning of 2014, so that drops him out of my top 25 this week.

Billy Horschel: The man of mystery who is very good at disappearing acts. There have been plenty of weeks where he should have played well this year, but he didn’t. Horschel is accurate but ranks 197th in scrambling. If his irons aren’t locked in this week, it’ll be another missed cut for Billy Ho. At the same time, he definitely has the potential to contend on this track.

Tim Wilkinson: Watch out for this Aussie, as tight tracks that require precision are his thing. His last three finishes here are 22nd, 6th, and 29th. Sneaky option in many formats.

Will Mackenzie: Continue to ride the top-10 train while it’s still moving. Mack now has five top 10s in 13 tournaments, 9-for-13 when it comes to top 25s. He’s in the zone and locked in this year.

Brian Stuard: Starting the year off hot but the courses got too lengthy for him. This will be a nice return to a short course, and we could see him return to the top 10 or 25 this week.

Spencer Levin: Same story as Stuard. He’s gone in a slump, and could use a nice short course to break the slump. Levin ranks inside the top 30 when it comes to driving accuracy, par 3 scoring, and scrambling. The recipe for success here at Harbour Town.

Tim Clark: Considering Clark a nice wildcard who has the play style to succeed here. He’s finished top 50 in eight of the last 10 RBC Heritage’s he’s played in. Clark is the definition of accurate off the tee, he is very short off the tee, and he is a good scrambler. Boom, wildcard.

My Top 25 for the 2014 RBC Heritage

1. Luke Donald

2. Kevin Na

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Graeme McDowell

6. Jim Furyk

7. Zach Johnson

8. Will MacKenzie

9. Russell Knox

10. Chris Stroud

11. Charley Hoffman

12. Hunter Mahan

13. Pat Perez

14. Brandt Snedeker

15. Harris English

16. Bill Haas

17. Charl Schwartzel

18. Patrick Reed

19. Chris Kirk

20. Brendon Todd

21. Aaron Baddeley

23. Charles Howell III

24. Brian Davis

25. Jerry Kelly

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 RBC Heritage Contest to win $2,000

Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

RBC Heritage – DraftKings Edition

Last week was a monster week for DFS Golf. There were huge prize pools on every site, with DraftKings leading the way with their $300K Spring Classic. I did alright on a few sites but unfortunately I didn’t end up winning the big one on DraftKings, as Lefty and Matsuyama both missed the cut for me. Next time. Now it’s onto a fresh slate at the RBC Heritage.

The course is a short one, right at the 7,100 yard mark. The greens are TifEagle bermudagrass, but we will talk more about the course tomorrow in the full tournament preview. For now, let’s get our DraftKings brain working, and build a few sample lineups:

Team Shorty

Brian Stuard ($7,900) 5th-6th-2nd-118th-124th-85th-92nd-30th-10th-5th

Marc Leishman ($8,000) 5th-30th-113th-9th-9th-83rd-1st

Robert Garrigus ($8,500) 27th-94th-79th-22nd-110th-24th-22nd-16th-2nd-13th-20th-2nd

Brice Garnett ($6,900) 19th-48th-38th-79th-36th

Hunter Mahan ($9,300) 6th-24th-4th-91st-16th-48th-18th-11th-15th

These golfers love to play on short courses. Any tournament played around 7,100 yards or shorter would fit the bill. Results shown are their tournament finishes at short venues since 2012. Other golfers that fit the mold but didn’t fit into the lineup include: Kuchar, Howell III, Snedeker, Kirk, Ernie, ZJ, and Horschel.

Follow the Form

J.B. Holmes ($7,600): 12th-64th-10th-54th

Chesson Hadley ($7,500): 56th-26th-14th

Russell Knox ($8,600): 26th-43rd-25th

Stephen Gallacher ($7,500): 34th-6th

Kevin Na ($8,800): 11th-14th-2nd

Results shown are over the past six weeks. I don’t love this team as much as I usually do. J.B. Holmes is a bomber, and has feasted on longer courses lately. Now he will have to adjust to a shorter course with less room to take advantage of his tee shots. Gallacher has been impressive, but as we’ve seen with GFC, PGA Tour success is not always a given after some major championship success.

Course Horse-tory

Rory Sabbatini ($7,900): 9th-17th-14th-8th

Spencer Levin ($5,800): 37th-14th-14th-13th

Charley Hoffman ($9,000): 6th-8th-75th

Ben Crane ($7,300): 48th-6th-26th-29th

Luke Donald ($10,000): 3rd-37th-2nd-3rd-2nd

All these golfers know how to navigate Harbour Town. Results shown are RBC Heritage finishes since 2008. This team scares me in a lot of ways. First Rory and Levin have both been awful this year. Second Hoffman does not seem like a great fit for this course, but he’s had back-to-back top 10s, so I guess it fits his eye.

Handpicked Value Plays

Brian Davis ($7,600): The Englishman is not afraid to get into contention every now and then. Davis has top 30s in six of his eight RBC Heritage visits, so this could be one of those top-10 finish weeks for Davis.

Brice Garnett ($6,900): Talk about a sneaky good season brewing for Garnett. BG has has made 11-of-13 cuts during the 2014 season and just picked up his first top 10 at the Shell Houston Open. In honor of Kevin Garnett aka The Big Ticket, I will now be calling Brice Garnett The Little Ticket. I will also be owning him in many lineups this week.

Aaron Baddeley ($7,100): The Aussie is hit-or-miss, and seems to hit at random times. However, with six top 25s in eight Heritage appearance, I like his chances to hit again this week. As a past winner, and great horse for the course, I am willing to look past his 2014 form and take a chance in a few lineups.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $27 Masters Contest to win $2,000

The Masters Fantasy Preview

We are less than 24 hours away from the first major of the year. The Eisenhower tree may be gone, Tiger Woods may not be there, but play must go on!

Augusta National needs no introduction. It is the most breathtaking course in all of golf. It is a bomber’s paradise where long-hitters and ball-strikers will feast but still offers plenty of bite and will punish those that do not know their way around.

Amateurs are a big part of the Masters, but they rarely find themselves in contention. Matthew Fitzpatrick, shown above, is the most likely amateur to make a splash, in my opinion. Don’t be fooled by his boyish looks, he is 19 years old and has game well beyond his years. He finished 44th at the Open Championship last year.

Correlated Stats

One thing I found while diving deep into the stats was that par 5 scoring is not as important as one would believe. The winners here always do well on the par 5s, but so does everyone else in the field. With easy par 5s, it eliminates the advantage from golfers that usually dominate the par 5s week in and week out.

The first stat I want to hone in on this week is strokes gained-tee to green(T2G). This is an unofficial stat currently, but you can manually find this number by subtracting strokes gained-putting from strokes gained over field. It’s a great way to pick out ball-strikers and/or golfers that gain their strokes before they reach the green. Looking at the Masters top 10 finishers over the past two years, 14-of-18 qualified golfers were inside the top 25 strokes gained-T2G. More importantly, seven of the last 10 winners had a SG-T2G greater than 1.44 during the year they won the Masters. A rating of 1.44 is generally the top 5-7 golfers in any given year.

Golfers with a strokes gained-T2G > 1.44 in 2014 are: Sergio Garcia, Harris English, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Graham DeLaet, Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama. Golfers that may not have enough rounds to be qualified but met the qualifications last year are: Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, and Steve Stricker. Rory McIlroy had a remarkable 2.07 strokes gained-T2G in 2012, definitely worth noting, as well. He will likely be near the top of this list again once he meets the minimum round qualifications in 2014.

The second stat I am looking at is going for the green. This stat is a good indicator of aggressive players, and also a good indicator of who is dialed in with their long irons. The stat has been tracked for 12 years. In that time, 10 of the 12 Masters champions had a going for it percentage of 59% or greater. 15 in the field currently have a percentage over 59%. Be sure to cross-reference with previous years to eliminate outliers. Notables that consistently stand out in this stat include: DJ, Bubba, Woodland, Stenson, Westwood, Phil, Adam Scott, Keegan, and Rory.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

British Open – Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Darren Clarke

TOUR Championship – Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas

Quicken Loans National- Bill Haas, Tiger Woods, Nick Watney

Northern Trust Open – Bubba Watson, John Merrick, Bill Haas

Honda Classic – Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, Rory McIlroy

Big tournaments like the British Open and TOUR Championship correlate well with the Masters? What a surprise *Sarcasm*. Playing well on the biggest stages in golf can be contagious. Quicken Loans/AT&T National and the Northern Trust are both played on bentgrass greens. The Honda Classic is a challenging golf course, but that is the only similarities I could find. For whatever reason, there seems to be a link.

One thing that stands out is Bill Haas. He is all over the correlated tournaments list! Might be worth an extra look as the Masters is the one major that would make the most sense for him to win with his ability to get locked in and go into a ball-striking coma for weeks at a time.

Players to Watch

Fred Couples: King of Augusta is always a great play if his back can hold up for four rounds. According to Shane Bacon of Yahoo!, Couples back has been worse than usual recently. If I have any money on the line, I am playing it safe this year and avoiding Couples.

Angel Cabrera: Same as Couples, but with the shoulder. Cabrera has been in talks of shutting it down for surgery after this week, but played very well last year thanks to some new shock-absorbing shafts. I’m not buying it as a long-term solution and wouldn’t be surprised at all if Cabrera’s shoulder issues led to poor play this week or even a withdraw. Another golfer that is fine to pick in free leagues but I’m not spending my hard-earned cash on a serious risk like El Pato.

Gary Woodland: Mr. Under Armour has really come into his own as a late-bloomer. He currently ranks 4th in strokes gained-T2G, gaining 1.77 strokes on the field per round. He is giving back nearly half a stroke per round on the green, but still! His length should come in handy and his aggressiveness (ranked 2nd in going for green %) is perfect for Augusta National.

Jason Day: Hasn’t played a stroke-play event in eight weeks but is being slapped with a sticker that claims him to be one of the favorites this week? One of the biggest reasons Day has underachieved over the past few years is due to nagging injuries. Now he has another nagging injury that will likely prevent him from winning again. I’m not buying-in this week.

Rickie Fowler: Ranks 17th in strokes gained-T2G this year, 12th in going for the green percentage, and is coming off his best finish of the year with a 6th place finish in Houston. Things are looking up for Rickie.

Dustin Johnson: Another bomber that has underachieved at Augusta. He has been a routine finisher in the 30-40 range before breaking into the top 20 last year. His length and iron play are plus-plus, but will need to tidy up his short game to contend this week.

Steve Stricker: Still looking for that first major. He is throwing everyone off the scent by saying his game isn’t where he wants it to be right now. Still have to give him a hard look, as he always performs.

Sergio Garcia: Leads the TOUR in strokes gained-T2G and he’s not afraid to play aggressive golf. The problem lies in his head, as he is the king of blowing up on the weekend.

Lee Westwood: Seven of his last eight major appearances on courses over 7,400 have led to finishes of 11th or better for the Englishman. You’re not going to find that kind of consistent performance from anyone else in the field. The problem lies in his 2014 form. The T17 last week was a promising step in the right direction, and has me fully committed to Westwood this week. Uh oh.

Rory McIlroy: Is the man to beat with Tiger not in the field. Rory has won two of the last five majors played on long courses. Even on a down year in 2013, finished 10th in strokes gained-T2G. Proceed without caution.

With that being said, here are my extended power rankings for the week…

My Top 75 for the 2014 Masters

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Keegan Bradley

3. Phil Mickelson

4. Lee Westwood

5. Sergio Garcia

6. Matt Kuchar

7. Dustin Johnson

8. Adam Scott

9. Bubba Watson

10. Gary Woodland

11. Charl Schwartzel

12. Steve Stricker

13. Luke Donald

14. Jason Day

15. Justin Rose

16. Jason Dufner

17. Bill Haas

18. Henrik Stenson

19. Graeme McDowell

20. Harris English

21. Hunter Mahan

23. Hideki Matsuyama

24. Jim Furyk

25. Zach Johnson

26. Jimmy Walker

27. Jordan Spieth

28. Nick Watney

29. Graham Delaet

30. Ian Poulter

31. Francesco Molinari

32. Miguel Angel Jimenez

33. Rickie Fowler

34. Patrick Reed

35. Ryan Moore

36. Jamie Donaldson

37. Brandt Snedeker

38. K.J. Choi

39. Victor Dubuisson

40. Matt Jones

41. Matt Every

42. Stephen Gallacher

43. Ernie Els

44. Fred Couples

45. Chris Kirk

46. Matteo Manassero

47. Marc Leishman

48. Trevor Immelman

49. Webb Simpson

50. Joost Luiten

51. John Senden

52. Thomas Bjorn

53. Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

54. Peter Hanson

55. Angel Cabrera

56. Thorbjorn Olesen

57. Kevin Stadler

58. Brendon De Jonge

59. Kevin Streelman

60. Boo Weekley

61. Y.E. Yang

62. Louis Oosthuizen

63. Stewart Cink

64. Martin Kaymer

65. Billy Horschel

66. Vijay Singh

67. Russell Henley

68. Thongchai Jaidee

69. Sang-Moon Bae

70. David Lynn

71. Jonas Blixt

72. Tim Clark

73. John Huh

74. Roberto Castro

75. Branden Grace

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $200 Masters Contest to win $100,000!

Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

Golfmanna: Offers a pick-6 format for majors as well as a one-and-done league that starts this week. Awesome site to check out.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

The Masters – DraftKings Edition

This is the big one! Or at least the first big one of the year. DraftKings is leading the way with $300,000 up for grabs in their featured contest. Add in all the other contests they are offering this week and I’m guessing it’s over $500,000 in prizes. Pretty crazy for one week of action. Fantasy golf is growing so quickly!

Let’s have some fun and take a look at a few possible lineup angles and then I’ll give three of my handpicked sleepers this week…

Team Amateur Hour

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($4,800)

Oliver Goss ($4,800)

Lee Westwood ($8,800)

Keegan Bradley ($10,000)

Rory McIlroy ($11,000)

I picked the two amateurs I deemed most likely to make the cut and then I was able to pick anyone basically. This leaves you with the pick of the litter for your final golfer selection, as well. Don’t trust Westwood? Try Stricker or Furyk instead for a safer option.

Follow the Form

Matt Jones ($7,400): 1st-14th-115th

Gary Woodland ($8,500): 20th-8th-16th

Matt Every ($8,400): 1st-8th

John Senden ($7,500): 42nd-52nd-1st

Bill Haas ($8,800): 37th-14th-6th

Results shown are over the past six weeks. Three of the five have won tournaments in the past six weeks. All of them are swinging a hot club. This leaves you with $9,400 for the sixth golfer. The problem with this team is lack of major championship firepower. But hey, anything could happen!

Course Horse-tory

Fred Couples ($7,200): 13th-12th-15th-6th-51st-46th

Nick Watney ($8,400): 13th-32nd-46th-7th-19th-11th

Angel Cabrera ($8,600): 2nd-32nd-7th-18th-1st-25th

Ian Poulter ($8,500): 72nd-7th-15th-6th-51st-46th

Miguel Angel Jimenez ($8,200): 56th-27th-12th-46th-8th

All these golfers know how to navigate Augusta National. Results shown are Masters finishes since 2008. With $9,100 left over you could spend it on another horse like Westwood, Charl, Furyk, or Stricker.

Handpicked Value Plays

Lee Westwood ($8,800): Most gamers will be scared off by his 2014 form, but Westwood crushes majors and loves playing at Augusta. He’s finished inside the top 11 in five of the past six runnings of the Green Jacket.

Thorbjorn Olesen ($5,500): Finished 6th in his Masters debut. While short in stature, he is not short off the tee. His length certainly gives him an advantage at Augusta National. Risky due to his current form, but a solid GPP play.

Jamie Donaldson ($7,600): He’s been on quite a roll this year, and now how STM on the PGA TOUR. That should take some pressure off, and give him some confidence as well. He has four top 10s in his last eight worldwide stroke-play events. Quite the bargain for less than $8k.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

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Trending the Masters: Searching for the 2014 Winner

It’s Masters Week! That means it is time to dig-in to the spreadsheets and over-analyze to our hearts desire. Each and every year, trends will come and go, each telling us who this years winner will be. Trends are a lot of fun but you must remember to use with caution. With each passing year, new trends will form. Much like rules, trends are meant to be broken.

That being said, I was motivated by a few trend articles I read earlier this week. The first was written by Ryan O’Sullivan of The Golf Aficionado. The second article was written by Rich Hunt and published by GolfWRX. Give those two articles a read while you’re at it. I will even combine their lists of candidates with mine at the end.

Trend 1: Buck the Odds

This is less of a trend, but more of common sense. I start off by removing any golfer that has listed odds or 500-to-1 or worse. Any golfer that has an angle this week will be priced accordingly. I probably could have picked a lower number, but 500-to-1 will work.

This eliminates: Ken Duke, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Mike Weir, Larry Mize, Chang Woo Lee, Oliver Goss, Michael McCoy, Jordan Niebrugge, Mark O’Meara, Tom Watson, Garrick Porteous, Jose Maria Olazabal, Sandy Lyle, Ian Woosnam, Craig Stadler, Ben Crenshaw, T.J. Vogel, Darren Clarke, Derek Ernst

Trend 2: Check the treads on those tires

Since 1999 when Firestone started hosting what is now known as the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, all 14 Masters winners since have played in the WGC Bridgestone the year prior to winning. It doesn’t matter how they finished, they’ve been in the field. This is a good trend to eliminate golfers that may be new to elite fields and big events.

This eliminates 30 or 31 more golfers: Hunter Mahan*, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Jimmy Walker, Graham Delaet, Gary Woodland, Marc Leishman, Chris Kirk, Joost Luiten, Brendon De Jonge, Kevin Stadler, Stewart Cink, Thongchai Jaidee, John Huh, Roberto Castro, Louis Oosthuizen, Victor Dubuisson, K.J. Choi, Matt Every, Matt Jones, Fred Couples, Trevor Immelman, John Senden, Thomas Bjorn, Scott Stallings, Tim Clark, Vijay Singh, Y.E. Yang, Steven Bowditch, Lucas Glover, Bernhard Langer

*Mahan missed the tournament to be with his newborn. You can probably not eliminate him since he chose not to play in the tournament for personal reasons.

Trend 3: Top 25 @ Doral

Since 2007 when the WGC Cadillac Championship moved to Doral, six of the seven Masters winners have played at Doral during the season they won the Masters. Five of those six had finishes inside the top 25. We will use the top 25 at Doral to cut out more of the fat.

This eliminates 26 of the remaining 49 golfers: Jason Day, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker, Ernie Els, Brandt Snedeker, Angel Cabrera, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Nick Watney, Thorbjorn Olesen, Billy Horschel, Peter Hanson, Russell Henley, Matteo Manassero, Martin Kaymer, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Branden Grace, Sang-Moon Bae, David Lynn, Boo Weekley, D.A. Points

Trend 4: Top 30 at the D-Bank

Since the FedExCup Playoffs began in 2007, five of the six Masters champs have played at TPC Boston the year prior and all five that played finished inside the top 30. With 100 players left in the playoffs before the Deutsche Bank Championship, some of the elite have already had enough fun and are ready to call it a year. For the others that are still hungry, it is time to make their push.

This eliminates 14 golfers, including some pretty big names: Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Bill Haas, Ryan Moore, Jamie Donaldson, Francesco Molinari, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Stephen Gallacher, Jonas Blixt, Kevin Streelman

Final List of potential Masters Winners:

Matt Kuchar

Sergio Garcia

Dustin Johnson

Jason Dufner

Henrik Stenson

Zach Johnson

Charl Schwartzel

Harris English

Hunter Mahan*

If you cross-reference the list with the aforementioned lists from Ryan and Rich then you are left with Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel, and Hunter Mahan*. Is it finally time for Sergio?

Shell Houston Open Fantasy Preview

Raise your hand if you had Steven Bowditch as your winner last week? You guys are all liars, liars I tell you. Bowditch had two career top 10s in 109 PGA TOUR starts prior to his victory last week. The oft-inaccurate bomber from Australia will now be on a lot of people’s radar, but it’s safe to avoid him unless he backs it up in his next couple starts.

Forgot about Australia and let’s move onto the Shell Houston Open. As the name implies, it’s played in Houston, Texas. The course is Golf Club of Houston, previously known as Redstone. Same course, different name, so go pick up those course history charts out of the trash. They are still useful. GC of Houston is a long course, measuring 7,441 yards on the scorecards. Bombers will feel right at home. Many will use this tournament as a prep for the Masters. If they find themselves out of contention, they may start working on particular shot shapes in anticipation of Augusta.

Last week to qualify for DraftKings $300K Masters Contest.

Correlated Stats

The stats you want to look at this week are pretty standard. Adjusted Scoring is always a good one. Par Breakers have been very important, as you’ll find two-thirds of the top-5 finishers here have been ranked 75th or better on the season when it comes to Par Breakers.

Driving Distance is more important than usual this week, but it’s not necessary. There are always alternate routes to scoring. Strokes Gained-Putting has been all over the place for this tournament. Some great putters have done well, but plenty of awful putters have also had success at GC of Houston. It would be best not to lean on SGP too heavily this week. Great ball-strikers will rise to the top this week.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

Humana Challenge – Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson

WGC Bridgestone – Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott

Hyundai ToC - Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Steve Stricker

Honda Classic – Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, Rory McIlroy

Farmers Insurance Open – Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods, Brandt Snedeker

The correlated tournaments look very similar to last weeks (3-of-5 the same) with long courses, courses susceptible to wind, and/or bermuda greens being the key, again.

Players to Watch

Matt Kuchar: You can never go wrong with Kooch. He loves long courses, he loves playing in strong-field events, and he’s only missed three cuts in his last 53 events.

Keegan Bradley: Mr. Hilfiger is not as safe as Kuchar (who is?) but he’s been a top 25 machine this year. Bradley has seven top 25s in 10 tries this year. With top 10s each of the past two years here, it’s one of those rare cases where form meets course history. Just let it happen.

Lee Westwood: Speaking of course history, Westwood has it. He hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in any appearances here. He is still searching for his form this year. It wouldn’t be too surprising if he found it this week.

Louis Oosthuizen: If you have the guts, play Shrek. His course history is great and claims to be healthy. There is a big difference between saying you’re healthy and actually proving it.

Brian Davis: Three top 10s here over the past five years. Couple that with back-to-back decent outings by Davis and you may have fireworks this week.

Graham DeLaet: GDL was so two months ago. Many have already forgotten about Graham’s scorching start to the season, but I haven’t. He’s one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR and has a ton of length off the tee. Both come in very handy at the SHO.

Charles Howell III: Chucky Three Sticks is having himself a season. Five top 10s in 13 tournaments and only one missed cut. He gets a slight boost for me this week as well since he’s one of the golfers trying to play his way into the Masters via win.

Jimmy Walker: This is one of those cases where recent form battles with course history. Walker supporters will point to his round of 63 in 2011 when he tied the course record. When you take a step back you will see that Walker’s finished 70th or worse in six of the nine times he’s played the Shell Houston Open. I think form wins out in this case, and Walker makes the cut. Course history won’t go down without a fight though, as I think Walker will finish outside the top 15.

Webb Simpson: Webb is an easy-fade when it comes to strong field tournaments. Considering his recent slide, it’s even easier. I’m expecting him to hang around the cut line like he usually does in strong fields.

Dustin Johnson: #1 in the field in just about any stat you wanna know. The problem there is small sample size. Hard to fade DJ right now the way he’s swinging, but sometimes regression hits hard.

Kevin Stadler: Third in the field when it comes to Strokes Gained-Tee2Green. That makes him a sneaky option in Yahoo! A group if you’re gutsy enough. The problem is and always will be his putting. The Baby Walrus is someone who could benefit from softer conditions if showers hit over the weekend. Assuming he makes the weekend.

Matteo Manasesero: The Italian was mentioned in my DraftKings edition the other day, and I still like him two days later. It may be a stretch for him to be in my top 10, but that’s where I see him finishing this week. More of a gut feeling than anything. Feel free to lower him down your rankings if you’re not on the same page. I won’t blame ya.

Kevin Streelman: Streelman has been quiet but steady this year. He’s made 8-of-8 cuts and hasn’t finished outside of 53rd place all season. I don’t love the course for him, but hard to ignore that form.

There are so many viable options this week, I can’t write about them all. Tringale, Harman, Noh barely missed my top 25. Palmer fell out due to his hip injury. The field is pretty loaded, feel free to comment below if you have any questions or comments on particular golfers.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Shell Houston Open

1. Matt Kuchar

2. Keegan Bradley

3. Jordan Spieth

4. Dustin Johnson

5. Rory McIlroy

6. Bill Haas

7. Matteo Manassero

8. Sergio Garcia

9. Graham Delaet

10. Luke Donald

11. Henrik Stenson

12. Chris Stroud

13. Charley Hoffman

14. Charles Howell III

15. Freddie Jacobson

16. Jason Kokrak

17. Jimmy Walker

18. Charl Schwartzel

19. Chris Kirk

20. Hunter Mahan

21. Ian Poulter

23. Steve Stricker

24. Daniel Summerhays

25. Phil Mickelson

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Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

Shell Houston Open – DraftKings Edition

The Texas Two-Stop is half way in the books, with Steven Bowditch surprisingly taking home the cash and prizes. Behind two number two is the Shell Houston Open trophy. With so many off-the-radar winners already in 2014, I am putting my money on one of the favorites winning this week in Houston.

You may have noticed the DraftKings lobby is a little more crowded this week thanks to Opening Week of the MLB season. That may lower the level of competition and research your opponents put into golf this week. Time to take advantage and have a really good week on DraftKings.

Don’t forget to comment of the Golfmanna article for a chance to win a free Masters constest entry. First, let’s put together a few lineups for fun to get the juices flowing:

Everything’s Bigger in Texas

Tim Clark ($6,600): 7th-19th

Lee Westwood ($8,300): 10th-21st-30th

Louis Oosthuizen ($8,400): 71st-10th-19th-104th-3rd-16th

Freddie Jacobson ($8,800): 16th-35th-17th-15th-18th-27th-31st-5th

Rickie Fowler ($8,600): 54th-5th-63rd-16th

This team knows how to go low in the Lone Star State. You could also call these guys Team Question Mark. Most of these guys are returning from injuries, going through swing changes, or have a history of W/Ds. High-risk, high-reward. Results listed are each golfers most recent results in Texas tournaments. $9,300 left over for your final golfer (Haas, CHIII, Mahan, Palmer).

A Horse of Course

Lee Westwood ($8,300): 10th-21st-30th-8th-11th

Brian Davis ($7,600): 6th-4th-48th-81st-14th

Louis Oosthuizen ($8,400): 10th-3rd-16th-114th

Ben Crane ($7,200): 4th-29th-24th-25th-80th-20th

Cameron Tringale ($8,200): 16th-8th-73rd

Westwood and Shrek are both repeat customers, as they’ve been on each of the first two teams. Both are probably worth an extra look this week. Brian Davis is looking to stay hot, and Cameron Tringale has had a nice 2014 season, thus far. Results shown are previous Shell Houston Open results since 2008.

Follow the Form

David Hearn ($7,000): 52nd-8th-24th-6th

Chris Stroud ($8,400): 31st-9th-12th

Carl Pettersson ($8,600): 16th-20th-4th-46th

Matteo Manassero ($7,600): 8th-60th-12th

Jason Kokrak ($9,200): 31st-4th-14th-41st

All playing well currently, and I have included their results from the last six weeks. This leaves you $9,200 for your final selection. If you could clone Jason Kokrak then you could pick him again, otherwise you’ll have to settle for someone like Haas, GDL, or Hoffman.

Handpicked Value Plays

David Hearn ($7,100): Follow the form and you’ll run into this Canuck. Hearn has made four straight cuts with top 25s in three of the last four. For the low price of 7 g’s, it’s hard to pass.

Peter Hanson ($7,300): Hanson hasn’t missed a cut in any PGA Tour event played on a long course (over 7,400 yards) since the 2012 Shell Houston. It’s disappointing that his last long course missed cut was at this event, but 6-of-7 with an average finish of 39th is pretty legit. Especially for less than $7,500 on DraftKings.

Matteo Manassero ($7,600): Manassero has finally impressed me this year in his four PGA Tour events played. He has three top 25s in those four events. The potential has always been there but he is finally putting it together in PGA Tour events. A made cut is likely, and a win wouldn’t be shocking. Not many golfers priced at $7,600 I could say that about.

Good luck this week and happy fantasy golfing!

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $109 Shell Houston Open to win $2,500

Golfmanna Fantasy Golf Contest Giveaway

Just in time for the Masters, Golfmanna is back for the 2014 season. Golfmanna is a fantasy golf website that hosts two fantastic formats of fantasy golf games.

Game # 1 is the Pick-6 Masters Contest. As the name implies, the contest will run during the Masters. You will pick any six golfers for the Masters, and your total score is the cumulative money earned during the Masters. The winner takes home $1,000 but prizes are also paid out to the rest of the top 10.

These pick-6 contests run for each of the majors, and also the PLAYERS Championship. You get a free entry if you decide now that you want to play in all five ($100 instead of $125 for all five pick-6 contest entries).

Game #2 is their One and Done offering. This is a traditional fantasy sports game format where one golfer is selected each week, and you cannot select a golfer more than once throughout the year. Scoring is once again based on overall money won by your golfer’s and this league runs from the Masters through the TOUR Championship. I am still a beginner in this format, but it is very exciting and amazingly simple.

BONUS GIVEAWAY: Our friends over at Golfmanna have decided to be very generous and give away some entries. Here is how it will work. Comment on this post with four golfers for this week’s Shell Houston Open. The top three entries with the highest cumulative money earned at the SHO will win a free entry into the Masters Pick-6 contest. The 4th place finisher will win a free One-and-Done entry, which also starts next week at the Masters.

Give Golfmanna a round of applause, follow them on Twitter, like them on Facebook, and enter their contests.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Opening Day

It’s that time of year again, folks, OPENING DAY. Time to open a fresh bag of sunflower seeds and say farewell to fantasy nba that has become riddled with lineup scratches and teams tanking late in the season. Opening Day also brings out the best in daily fantasy sports websites. I have compiled a list of sites offering nice Opening Day contests. All four sites below are offering freerolls but are also offering big guaranteed prize pool contests. Check em’ out:

DraftKings

DraftKings has become my favorite DFS site to play on. I think it’s their layout and consistently awesome prize pools. They also made a deal with MLB.com so you will be seeing a lot of them this year if you are a baseball fan. They haven’t announced their huge year-long contest yet, but they have some fantastic Opening Day offerings. The first is the Grand Slam offerings. These are comprised of four different buy-in tiers ($2, $12, $27, and $109). You can turn $2 into $1,500 or turn $109 into $10,000, or somewhere in-between for the $12 and $27 contests.

Second is the $400K Walk-Off contest. This is a nice early season contest that will run on April 8th, with $100K going to the winner. Entry is $200 but Qualifier contests start as low as $2.

If you are new to DraftKings, this last offer is for you. $10,000 Opening Day Freeroll! If you make a first-time deposit, you get entry into this bad boy. It costs nothing to enter, and top 100 get paid out. $2,000 to the winner, $1,000 to 2nd place. If you make a DraftKings account and make your first deposit, send me an email, and I will add a little something extra on top of that. I want your first DraftKings experience to be a good one.

FanDuel

FanDuel made waves across the industry when they announced their monster fantasy baseball promo for the 2014 season. The FanDuel World Fantasy Baseball Championships have over $5 Million in guaranteed prizes. That includes the DFBC Finale in Las Vegas where first place will take home $1,000,000.

Their Opening Day freeroll has $1,000 up for grabs as well. It’s the perfect opportunity to check out FanDuel before making a deposit. Enter Now.

DraftStreet

DraftStreet always has great guaranteed prize pool contests. They have a $5K guaranteed prize pool and $20K guaranteed prize pool on opening day for $2 and $11 entries, respectively. If you like to try before you buy, enter the $500 Freeroll below for Opening Day.

Fantasy Aces

Fantasy Aces is fantastic for fantasy MLB. They offer fantasy football and basketball contests, but I would consider baseball to be their bread and butter. Aces is offering an opening day freeroll with $500 in prizes given away to the Top 100 finishers. Other pluses are their 100% Deposit Bonus for first-time deposits and their $5 minimum deposit makes it great if you want to try out the site without a lot of risk.