Josh Culp's Blog, page 55

WGC Cadillac Championship Fantasy Preview

It’s a great time to be a fan of golf. Two weeks ago we got to watch a remarkable match play finale when Jason Day held off a charging Victor Dubuisson. It was a breaking out party for a young Frenchman, who hit two of the greatest recovery shots you’ll see in a long time. That was followed that up with more drama last week as the Honda Classic went to a four-man playoff. Rory McIlroy had to hit one of the greatest 250 yard fairway wood shots I’ve ever seen just to get into the playoff. In the end, Russell Henley disposed of all three rather quickly, as he was the only golfer to birdie on the first playoff hole. What an exciting tournament, I can’t wait to see what’s in store this week at Doral.

The talk of the town is the course redesign. Donald Trump didn’t like how easy the Blue Monster was playing so he hired Gil Hanse to come in and give it a major overhaul. I’m talking MAJOR overhaul. Some holes were shortened, some were lengthened, but overall more than 100 yards were added to the course yardage. That officially puts it into the category of ‘long courses’ as it now stretches over 7,400 yards. Water surfaces have been expanded and they will come in play much more often than in previous years. Same with the bunkers. Bunkers have been strategically moved and aligned in a way that actually make an impact on strategy. The greens have gotten a makeover as well. New sight lines and a change in putting slopes. Old yardage books have been thrown out the window. This is a brand new course.

With that being said, Correlated Stats and Correlated Courses will not be taken into consideration this week. Before the redesign, this course was suited to golfers that were long and inaccurate off the tee. Par Breakers were a great indicator of success as well. As far as correlated tournaments go, the Valero Texas Open, Byron Nelson, and Valspar were all very correlated with success here at Doral. Golfers who have won on either of those three courses and are also in the field this week include Adam Scott, Jason Dufner, Keegan Bradley, Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Kevin Streelman, Gary Woodland, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, and Jason Day. Use those stats if you like, but note that the redesign might throw a wrench in things.

Now let’s look at some golfers that may or may not be on my radar this week:

Rory McIlroy: The back nine on Sunday wasn’t kind to Rory but I was impressed with his performance overall at the Honda Classic. I was definitely on the fence about his success overseas quickly translating to the PGA Tour events this year, but he proved me wrong. The added length of Doral will only help Rory this week. He has eight Top 10 finishes in his last nine WGC stroke play events.

Adam Scott: Scott is in my Fab Five this week. It’s hard to find a flaw in his game, so I won’t. I will recommend you play him with confidence. He excels in WGC events, he excels on long courses, he excels in tournaments with strong fields, and he’s very good when he plays in Florida. Any way you look at things, Adam Scott has to be in your Top 3 contenders this week.

Matt Kuchar: He may be boring, but sometimes boring is good. Kuchar doesn’t hit it long off the tee and he isn’t particularly accurate off the tee, either. He’s also pretty mediocre when it comes to hitting greens. Sounds like an awful golfer, but he always finds a way to score. That’s all that matters. He’s also not afraid to grind away par after par if this course plays really difficult due to the redesign. Kuchar is a really safe play this week who also has the upside to win.

Tiger Woods: You’re naive if you think Tiger actually had a back injury last week. Considering the media attention he gets, there would have definitely been a photo or video released of him wincing in pain if he actually had back pain last week. Maybe I’m the idiot here and Tiger actually did have back pain. However, I am treating the ‘back injury’ as a non-issue this week unless I hear otherwise. Tiger should be hungry this week. Hungry for a win and hungry to get the media off his back about his poor play. Rory and Scott are the only two I would rather have this week over Tiger.

Keegan Bradley: The fifth and final golfer in my Fab Five this week. These first five golfers are on Tier 1 while everyone else is a level below them. His length off the tee should come in handy this week and his Par 5 prowess will be key. Add in the fact that Keegan is always lurking when it comes to Majors and WGC events, and you have to like him this week.

Dustin Johnson: Let’s not get too carried away with his early season form. The win overseas at the last WGC stroke play event was great, yes. The 6th place at ToC? That is a field of 30, I’m not super impressed. The 2nd at Pebble? That is what you expect DJ to do at Pebble, it’s basically his course. The 2nd at NTO… very nice. The first round exit at Match Play? Doesn’t hurt his value, in my opinion. He’s never had much success at Dove Mountain. So now what should we expect from DJ here in Florida? Well, this is a WGC event, and he’s finished outside the Top 30 in five of his last eight WGC starts. There was a win thrown in there, but that win was his only Top 10 at a WGC event in the last three years. He’s also finished 35th or worse in three of his five tries here at Doral. He’s playing really well this year, but I’ll pass on DJ this week.

Bubba Watson: Speaking of good form, how about Bubba? A runner-up finish followed by a win in his last two stroke play outings. The added water kind of scares me because Bubba isn’t exactly conservative when it comes to going for the greens. Although, the added length should suit his game. Remember what happened after his last win, though? Granted, that was a win at the Masters, but still it wouldn’t surprise me if Bubba went back into hibernation for a while now that he’s had his fun.

Jordan Spieth: One of the hottest golfers in the world right now. If he could put together a decent Saturday he would have a couple wins under his belt this year. Spieth might be the man for you in One-and-Done leagues if you don’t want to waste a top dog in a no-cut event.

Luke Donald: Mr. Florida is always a great option while on the Florida Swing. For OAD, it’s probably best to save him for the Valspar, but feel confident trotting him out than in all other formats this week.

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano: If you believe in the local knowledge aspect, GFC might be the sleeper for you. GFC lives in Miami, and has been practicing at the new Doral for months now. He might have the best feel for the new changes at Doral, but he still has to go out and make the shots.

Jason Dufner: The course redesign puts more emphasis on shot making. When ever ball striking comes into play, Dufner rises up my board. He usually starts the season off slowly but it wouldn’t be surprising if he put on a ball striking clinic this week.

Justin Rose: Another ball striker that would be in my Top 5 if it weren’t for his shoulder problems. Everything about this tournament screams Justin Rose, but the shoulder and rust concerns still linger.

The Most Interesting Man in the World: Miggy Jimenez doesn’t have anything to brag about when it comes to Doral, but the PGA Tour off-season treated him nicely. He has four international Top 20s in his last five events since the beginning of November.

Steve Stricker: His first stroke play event of the year, but that hasn’t stopped him in the past. He’s finished 18th or better here for six straight years. Seven of his last eight Doral rounds are in the 60s. He can always putt the lights out, it will just come down to ball striking this week for Stevey Stricks.

Zach Johnson: Another golfer in great form that I will be fading this week. The length of this course doesn’t bode well for ZJ. Considering all plethora of safer options this week, I will pass on ZJ this week.

Thomas Bjorn: Currently leading the Race to Dubai and hasn’t finished outside the Top 30 in any of his three trips to Doral. Not a guy I like to be in contention, but certainly appealing in salary-cap format.

My Top 25 for the 2014 WGC Cadillac Championship

1. Rory McIlroy

2. Adam Scott

3. Tiger Woods

4. Matt Kuchar

5. Keegan Bradley

6. Luke Donald

7. Bubba Watson

8. Jordan Spieth

9. Justin Rose

10. Sergio Garcia

11. Dustin Johnson

12. Graeme McDowell

13. Steve Stricker

14. Jason Dufner

15. Charl Schwartzel

16. Zach Johnson

17. Jason Day

18. Phil Mickelson

19. Jimmy Walker

20. Webb Simpson

21. Henrik Stenson

22. Hunter Mahan

23. Jim Furyk

24. Rickie Fowler

25. Lee Westwood

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Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Winner gets a $100 gift card.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win great prizes.

DraftKings: The leader in salary-cap leagues. DraftKings is raising the stakes and offering monster prize pools. This week you can turn $200 into $10,000 or turn $20 into $1,500. They offer lower stakes contests as well, all the way down to 25 cents to enter.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out for sure.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

FanThrowdown: FanThrowdown is another Daily Fantasy Sports site. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from 25 cents to $109. They even offer a weekly freeroll if you want to try it out.

Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Preview

It’s not the main event this week but the Puerto Rico Open still has importance to many hardcore gamers out there. The big dogs will be in Florida trying to tame the Blue Monster, but many of the second-tier golfers will be trying to earn themselves a PGA Tour victory down in Puerto Rico.

The Puerto Rico Open is played on Trump International Golf Club. The course is long, just over 7,500 yards according to the official scorecard. Weather looks to be gorgeous this week. The weatherman is expecting all four days to be played in low 70 degree weather with not much chance of precipitation. Wind can definitely become a factor, though, as it will likely be 10-20 MPH with higher gusts to be expected at times. Let’s have a look at a few options for all you One-and-Done gamers out there:

George McNeill: McNeezy is coming off 12th and 6th place finishes at the Honda and Northern Trust, so you know the form is there. He also won here back in 2012 and placed 5th in 2011. The course history is also there. Form + History = Good Idea.

Matt Jones: After many near misses over the past two seasons, Jones is ready for his first PGA Tour victory. This Aussie has no troubles with lengthy courses, and this weak field should be a sigh of relief for him. The missed cut last week was disappointing, but don’t be scared to throw him out there this week.

Brian Stuard: I love what Stuard is doing this year. He has five Top 25s in 10 events played, with three of those being Top 10s. He finished fourth here last year, but I don’t love his game on a lengthy course like this. I think a solid week is in order for Stuard, but I don’t foresee a win being in the cards.

Chris Stroud: Stroud has improved each of the three years he has played this tournament, with his best finish coming last year (18th). Stroud already has five Top 25s this season, and is still searching for that first PGA Tour victory.

Robert Karlsson: Seeing his fellow Swede, Henrik Stenson, dominate the World last year must have motivated him. Karlsson appears to be making a comeback attempt as well. He has three Top 10s in his last five worldwide events. He finished 30th here last year in his only Puerto Rico Open appearance. You will likely never even consider him again this year, not a bad One-and-Done option.

Marcel Siem: Siem entered the OWGR Top 50 last year after the Valero but he missed out on the Masters by 0.03 ranking points. He has fallen quite a bit since then. He is now ranked 99th, but he is still one of the most talented golfers in this weak field. A big week might be in the cards if Siem wants to make another run at the Masters.

Andres Romero/Fabian Gomez: Both Argentinians have had some success here in the past. Neither have played all that great in 2014, though. If you want a calculated risk, take a look at the Blue + White flag of Argentina this week.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Puerto Rico Open

1. Matt Jones

2. George McNeill

3. Brian Stuard

4. Chris Stroud

5. David Hearn

6. Scott Brown

7. James Driscoll

8. Robert Streb

9. Seung-Yul Noh

10. Robert Karlsson

11. Jim Herman

12. Fabian Gomez

13. Michael Thompson

14. Andres Romero

15. Martin Flores

16. Marcel Siem

17. Chad Collins

18. Morgan Hoffmann

19. Tim Clark

20. Michael Putnam

21. Tyrone Van Aswegen

22. Alvaro Quiros

23. Ryo Ishikawa

24. Brice Garnett

25. Jhonattan Vegas

Honda Classic Fantasy Preview

The Honda Classic is next on the docket. We leave the West Coast to begin the Florida Swing. The next four tournaments will be played in Florida before heading to Texas. Florida weather is nice, but not so much this time of the year. There is a decent chance of showers and possibly even thunder storms Thursday and Friday. We’ve been very fortunate this year when it comes to weather delays, so hopefully that holds true. Winds are usually 15-25 mph during this tournament. Keep that in mind.

Correlated Stats

The past few weeks we have been anti-Driving Accuracy and that held true. Jason Day, Bubba Watson, and Jimmy Walker are three guys that are always outside the Top 100 Driving Accuracy. This week the surprising stat is Strokes Gained Putting. The Honda Classic has been played at PGA National for seven years now. The average Strokes Gaines Putting rank of all seven winners has been 137th. Only one of the seven winners have finished inside the Top 100 during the season they won the Honda Classic.

Of the 44 golfers that finished 5th or better here since 2007, half of them were outside the Top 100 Strokes Gained Putting that season. It’s important that you don’t mistake what I’m saying and expect the winner to be missing putts left and right this week. All I am saying is that traditionally good putters have not had much success here in the past.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

HP Byron Nelson – Sang-Moon Bae, Jason Dufner, Keegan Bradley

WGC Cadillac Championship – Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Nick Watney

Valspar Championship – Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald, Gary Woodland

The Masters – Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel

PLAYERS Championship – Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar, K.J. Choi

Players to Watch

Graeme McDowell: McDowell is the obvious pick in my mind. He is a great course manager and knows how to deal with the wind. I’ve been struggling in One-and-Done because I talk myself out of the obvious pick. This week I am staying with my first instinct and will roll out G-Mac as my One-and-Done pick.

Tiger Woods: Remember how it was really dumb to pick Tiger Woods at the PLAYERS Championship last year? He had terrible course history and everyone suggested it was smarter to wait because Tiger only wins on certain courses. Yet, he still won and some people got rewarded for their questionable decision. It could be a similar situation this week as Tiger is not in form and doesn’t have any previous wins on this course (which is rare for any tournament he plays). I think it is a good week to hop on Tiger because you get to use Tiger during a week when a lot of people will be scared to back him.

Adam Scott: Adam Scott got mauled by the Bear Trap during his only prior visit to PGA National back in 2011. In two rounds, he managed to rack up 12 strokes over par on the infamous three hole stretch. He also managed a measly one birdie during those 36 holes he played here. He’ll definitely look to get his revenge this week, but that drops him out of the Top 10, for me at least.

Luke Donald: If Jimmy Walker is the King of Cali then Luke Donald is the Monarch of Florida. Donald has played 9 tournaments in the state of Florida since 2011. He has finished Top 10 in seven of the nine! An average finish of 11th place, a median finish of 6th place. It’s hard to ignore Donald this week after you realize how consistent he has been in the state of Florida.

Rory McIlroy: Rory is getting a lot of love this week, and is even the favorite at most Sportsbooks. I’m not buying it. Last year Rory played in five international tournaments after the PGA Tour season and finished Top 5 in three of them and even won one of them. Then he went on to have a horrendous season. This year he added two more international tournaments to his schedule, but they are against ridiculously weak fields. The Kolon Korean Open? Really? I do think Rory has a bounce-back season in 2014, but I don’t expect a win this week. I think a finish in the 40s is more likely than a win.

Will Mackenzie: He has been a machine this year. Six Top 25s in nine tournaments thus far. Now he gets to play at his home course, also a course where he’s had success in the past. His last two trips to PGA National have resulted in 12th and 5th place finishes and an average DraftKings score near 70. Good form meets course history meets local knowledge. Talk about a killer combination. I am all-in on Mack in DFS formats this week.

Erik Compton: Another local boy who has had success grinding away at PGA National. Compton has made six of his last seven cuts, even sliding into the Top 25 once. More importantly, he has local knowledge and it shows with his finishes of 44th, 26th, and 4th in his three prior Honda Classic visits. Compton definitely fits the mold of a salary cap sleeper this week.

Lee Westwood: Sticking with the theme of golfers that live in Florida, golfers who don’t own property in Florida might be a shorter list than golfers who do. Anyway, Westwood separated with the swing coach and is feeling free again. Plus, is there anyone better at tough courses than Lee Westwood? Maybe Adam Scott, but it’s close. Westwood has three Top 10 finishes at PGA National in four attempts. His putting always leaves a bad taste in your mouth, but he doesn’t need to putt well as long as his irons are dialed in. I like his chances this week.

Matt Jones: I love Jonesy this week. This is the strongest field of the year so Jones has become a forgotten man. Let’s not forget that Jones had five Top 10s last season. Jones is three-for-three at PGA National with two Top 25s. Considering Jones’ shaky past, that course history is almost as good as you’ll find for him. If I were a bettin’ man, I’d say his 89/1 odds look very juicy this week.

Ben Crane: Crane has averaged 16.3 Par Breakers per Tournament in his last three PGA National appearances. That is the most of any golfer at this track since 2009. Deep Sleeper Alert.

Phil Mickelson: You know what you’re going to get when it comes to Phil… inconsistency. It’s all or nothing with Phil. Makes him a great GPP play when it comes to salary cap formats. Phil’s never played here but he loves the challenge of a difficult course.

Charl Schwartzel: Charl has no troubles grinding away at PGA National. In three appearances he’s averaged 73 DraftKings Points, 15.7 Par Breakers per Tournament, and a 69.3 Scoring Average.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Honda Classic

1. Graeme McDowell

2. Tiger Woods

3. Lee Westwood

4. Charl Schwartzel

5. Luke Donald

6. Keegan Bradley

7. Sergio Garcia

8. Hideki Matsuyama

9. Zach Johnson

10. Will MacKenzie

11. Matt Jones

12. Rory McIlroy

13. Phil Mickelson

14. Adam Scott

15. Michael Thompson

16. Jeff Overton

17. Henrik Stenson

18. Peter Hanson

19. Charles Howell III

20. Rickie Fowler

21. Chris Stroud

22. John Senden

23. Erik Compton

24. Cameron Tringale

25. Luke Guthrie

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Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Winner gets a $100 gift card.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.

DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out for sure.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

FanThrowdown: FanThrowdown is another Daily Fantasy Sports site. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from 25 cents to $109. They even offer a weekly freeroll if you want to try it out.

Honda Classic: DraftKings Edition

Stroke play is back! Match play is fun, brackets are fun, but Daily Fantasy Golf is much more fun. It was hard for most sites to throw together a contest for Match Play so that left us with very few options to play fantasy golf last week. Luckily, it was only a one week hiatus, and now fantasy golf is back at DraftKings.

First things first, let’s take a look at the course this week. PGA National is a tough, and I do mean tough, par 70 course playing at 7140 yards, located in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. If we take a look at the DraftKings scores from the past five years, you can see how tough the course actually is. The average DK points from golfers that miss the cut is only 20, while the winner usually racks up 100-110 DraftKings Points.

Making the cut is going to be vital as always, but picking golfers that finish in the Top 5 this week might be just as important, if not more important this week. There just aren’t that many opportunities to get Par Breakers on a tough par 70 course like this. You really need those extra position bonus points from finishing in the Top 5 if you want to take down a GPP.

Now the fun part. Let’s experiment with some possible lineup combinations this week on DraftKings:

Hot Clubbers

This team is full of golfers swinging a hot club early in the 2014 season.

Zach Johnson ($9,700): 3rd-8th-1st-16th-40th

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100): 23rd-4th-16th-25th-3rd

Chris Kirk ($7,700): 61st-7th-2nd-16th-1st-25th-36th

Matt Every ($7,600): 6th-99th-37th-13th-8th-36th-7th-47th

Charles Howell III ($9,100): 101st-6th-37th-58th-8th-6th-27th-7th-33rd-5th

This leaves $6,800 in the tank for the final piece of the good form puzzle. These golfers have two missed cuts among the five of them in 35 tournaments played this year.

Team Flo Rida

Whether it’s local knowledge, or just pure skill, these golfers love golfing in Florida. The finishes listed next to each golfer are their finishes in Florida tournaments since the beginning of 2011.

Luke Donald ($8,200): 19th-4th-43rd-6th-1st-6th-4th-6th-10th

Tiger Woods ($11,200): 1st-1st-1st-37th-40th-1st-2nd-24th-10th

Rory McIlroy ($10,700): 8th-8th-107th-3rd-1st-10th-70th

Lee Westwood ($8,100): 8th-63rd-25th-9th-61st-29th-4th-18th-29th

Spencer Levin ($6,300): 15th-113th-21st-12th-6th-44th-14th

Tiger AND Rory!?! Look out. That’s a mighty fine core but you only have $5,500 to spend on your 6th and final golfer. You might need to take out Rory or Westwood if you don’t like any golfers below $5,500 this week.

Putt for Dough

As the old saying goes “Drive for show and putt for dough.” These golfers know how to really roll a putt. The initial team using 2014 stats left us with too much money, so I’m going to use 2013 Strokes Gained Putting to get a larger sample size.

Greg Chalmers ($6,900): 0.854 Strokes Gained Putting

Stephen Ames ($5,000): 0.710 Strokes Gained Putting

Phil Mickelson ($9,800): 0.655 Strokes Gained Putting

James Driscoll ($7,100): 0.648 Strokes Gained Putting

Sergio Garcia ($9,200): 0.611 Strokes Gained Putting

This is a rather interesting squad. It leaves us with a ton of money left over. If it were an actual team of mine, I would swap out Stephen Ames for another good putter like Luke Donald, who also loves golfing in Florida. That would leave you with $8,800 for the final spot.

Add Just Ted Scoring

Let’s use the most relevant and correlated stat to make a team (Adjusted Scoring). I’m going to use 2014 stats but 2013 will be a larger sample size and likely a better barometer of overall skill. Nevertheless, these golfers have been able to go low in 2014.

Zach Johnson ($9,700)

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100)

Charles Howell III ($9,100)

Brendon Todd ($7,700)

Will Mackenzie ($7,700)

$6,700 remain for the 6th and final golfer. There are a lot of good options in this price range this week.

These were just a few lineup possibilities to get your brain chugging along. There are endless possibilities and ways to go about creating a golf lineup. Using one of these suggested lineups isn’t likely going to win you a GPP, but using strategic bits and pieces from each lineup could send you well on your way.

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DraftKings Monster $300K Masters Tournament

The Masters is six weeks away but DraftKings has already unveiled the largest fantasy golf contest known to man. This contest is going to revolutionize fantasy golf as someone will walk away with $100,000 and 299 other entries will win a portion of the $300,000 total contest purse. That is easily the largest prize pool ever for a one-week fantasy golf event.

Satellite tournaments will be running each week, and you can secure a spot in this tournament for as low as 25 cents. Could you imagine turning 25 cents into $100,000? Talk about Return on Investment! If you want to buy-in directly to this tournament, the cost is $200 per entry, with no limit on the number of entries you can buy.

Odds Check – Current Top 5 Masters Favorites

7/1 – Tiger Woods

7.5/1 – Rory McIlroy

16/1 – Adam Scott

16/1 – Phil Mickelson

20/1 – Jason Day

Odds will vary around the industry. Use Sports Betting Dime to shop around and find a quality betting site with the best odds.

Enter Now and get a free $2 entry when you sign up for DraftKings. Join a Honda Class Qualifier tournament today and keep your eye out for tomorrow’s DraftKings article.

WGC Accenture Match Play Fantasy Preview

March Madness comes a month early for golf fans. February Madness kicks off this week at Dove Mountain in Arizona. 64 elite golfers go head-to-head in a single elimination challenge. The course is in the mountains, as the name suggests. Golfers have to deal with elevation, altitude, plenty of bunkers, wide fairways, and the course nearly stretches to 7,800 yards. Sometimes weather becomes a factor as well.

There are a few notable no-shows this year as Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson are not in the field for various reasons. That is three of the top four ranked golfers in the world. Could you imagine if Syracuse, Florida, and Arizona decided they were going to skip the NCAA Tournament this year? That’s kind of what is happening here. I think that will change next year when the venue changes because Dove Mountain is currently one of the least liked courses on Tour.

The next piece of advice is sort of a disclaimer. This is a match play event, and really anything can happen. You can’t have a bad stretch of holes and then just shake it off and go low the next day. The ‘favorites’ you currently have pegged for the Final Four, could easily lose first round. It’s not like the NCAA March Madness where 1 and 2 seeds are pretty safe to advance. Nobody is safe. There have been an average of 13 Round One upsets since the tournament began 15 years ago. If you pick by higher seeds, you’re gonna have a bad time. You can basically take the seed numbers and throw them out the window because 40% of the seeds that should win on paper will be gone after Round One.

Correlated Stats

This is the third week in a row that you can throw Driving Accuracy out the window. The fairways are very generous to say the least. Players like Rory, Bubba, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, and Bubba Watson can take advantage of this since they aren’t the most accurate off the tee.

Like most weeks, Adjusted Scoring Average has the most correlation to success. If you need one stat to look at, make it Adjusted Scoring. Make sure you take a look at 2014 as well as 2013 since the 2014 sample size is currently so tiny.

Bobby Jones Bracket

Chalk: Jason Day

Sleeper: Thongchai Jaidee

Best Match-Up: Patrick Reed vs. Graham DeLaet

Jason Day has made it past the first round in all three appearances here. That’s more than a lot of players can say. He finished 3rd last year, and should be able to make another run this year.

Thongchai Jaidee is my sleeper in this Region. Jaidee made it to the Quarterfinals in 2010 before losing to the eventual champion, Ian Poulter. He took Sergio to 20 holes last year in this event. He also finished runner-up to Graeme McDowell in last years Volvo Match Play event. Jaidee is a sneaky good match play golfer. Watch out Webb Simpson.

Ben Hogan Bracket

Chalk: Rory McIlroy & Ian Poulter

Sleeper: Miguel Angel Jimenez & Marc Leishman

Best Match-Up: Sergio Garcia vs. Marc Leishman

It’s hard to say who the chalk is in this bracket. Rory McIlroy is on fire lately, and made it to the Championship here just two years ago. Ian Poulter is a Match Play magician, and won it here in 2010. It would be surprising if one of these two didn’t come out of this bracket. At the same time, it wouldn’t be surprising if one of them lost first round. That’s how Match Play goes a lot of the time.

Miguel Angel Jimenez likes it here. He is 6-4 since 2009, 5-2 in his last two tournaments here. He is old, but can still hang with the young guns. His first round matchup is ideal too, since Haas is 0-3 here and has never made it out of the first round.

Marc Leishman doesn’t have much of a match play track record but he has played very well this year, should benefit from the generous fairways, and Sergio has been mediocre in this event in the past. I wouldn’t say it’s likely, but it’s definitely possible that we see a 10 vs 15 seed matchup with Leishman vs Jimenez.

Gary Player Bracket

Chalk: Matt Kuchar

Sleeper: Scott Piercy

Best Match-Up: Luke Donald vs. Matteo Manassero

Matt Kuchar is the defending champ here and it was no fluke, either. Kuchar is 15-3 at the Golf Club at Dove Mountain. His wins haven’t been overly impressive but he just keeps finding a way to win here. He’s never won by more than 3 holes but his clock has been cleaned twice by Hunter Mahan and Luke Donald. Both golfers beat him by an impressive 5 holes. He is not invincible. Considering his performance last week, I am not banking on a deep run this week by Kuchar.

Scott Piercy loves desert golf. I’ve learned never to fade Piercy at desert courses. Piercy was completely out of form early in the season, missing 3 of 5 cuts and withdrawing from the other event he entered. Then he got to visit TPC Scottsdale. Boom! 15th place finish. How is his Dove Mountain match play record? Well, he destroyed Luke Donald 7&6 last year, destroyed Paul Lawrie 4&3 but then fell short in the third round vs. Steve Stricker. The wide fairways should also benefit Piercy this week, as he never finishes inside the Top 150 when it comes to Driving Accuracy. If Piercy can sneak by Rose in Round One, he could make a deep run.

Sam Snead Bracket

Chalk: Hunter Mahan

Sleeper: Martin Kaymer

Best Match-Up: Hideki Matsuyama vs. Martin Kaymer

Hunter Mahan is 11-4 at this event since 2009. He won it in 2012 and finished runner-up in 2013. It’s safe to say he likes it here. He doesn’t have the easiest first round matchup against Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano. Castano made it to the third round last year before losing to Webb Simpson. He also went blow for blow against Tiger back in 2012.

Martin Kaymer is the 12 seed and gets to face the young Japanese phenom, Matsuyama. Matsuyama can seemingly do no wrong, but Kaymer definitely has the experience and course history advantage in this matchup. Kaymer is 11-5 since 2009, with zero first-round exits. His Golf Club at Dove Mountain resume also includes a runner-up finish in 2011. Kaymer could make a deep run if he can sneak past Matsuyama in Round One.

My Top 25 for the 2014 WGC Accenture Match Play

1. Hunter Mahan

2. Ian Poulter

3. Matt Kuchar

4. Jason Day

5. Nick Watney

6. Bubba Watson

7. Rory McIlroy

8. Lee Westwood

9. Luke Donald

10. Scott Piercy

11. Martin Kaymer

12. Ernie Els

13. Jordan Spieth

14. Thongchai Jaidee

15. Patrick Reed

16. Ernie Els

17. Keegan Bradley

18. Webb Simpson

19. Steve Stricker

20. Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

21. Rickie Fowler

22. Sergio Garcia

23. Charl Schwartzel

24. Miguel Angel Jimenez

25. Dustin Johnson

Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. $100 GolfSmith Gift Card to the winner.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. The Prize Pool is awesome this week. Winner gets a Stay-and-Play package for 2 from La Quinta Resort & Club Fujikura golf prize package, SeeMore Putter (FGP Series or Si Series), and a Golfweek Digital Subscription.

Fantasy Feud: Fantasy Feud is one of the few sites offering Match Play contests. They have a mammoth $2,500 contest that is $109 to enter. Check them out for sure.

Northern Trust Open Fantasy Preview

Yesterday we took a look at some fun DraftKings lineup combinations but now it’s time to get down and dirty. The Northern Trust Open is the last stroke play event of the West Coast Swing. It’s played at the historic Riviera Country Club just outside of Los Angeles. It’s a par 71 course that plays at 7,349 yards. Not extremely long by today’s standards but much longer than most of the kiddie tournaments played so far. Fairways are tight and extremely difficult to hit. Long iron approach shots will be key, capitalizing on Par 5′s, and the ability to play from the rough will also be key this week. In addition, this is by far the strongest field of the year. Look for the cream to rise to the top.

Correlated Stats

Just like last week, accuracy off the tee is not important. It can certainly be advantageous if a golfer somehow finds a way to hit 75% of the fairways this week but that’s just not easy to do and shouldn’t be expected by anyone in the field. The leader in Fairways hit at Riviera is usually around 70% but most of the field will hit around 50% of the fairways this week. Some of the toughest fairways to hit on Tour. The guys that are used to missing the fairways will feel right at home this week while all those usually straight hitters join them in the thick stuff. The stats back up this claim. Since 2007, 87% of the golfers that finish in the Top 5 have been outside the Top 50 in Driving Accuracy. Nine of the last 11 winners here have been outside the Top 100 in Driving Accuracy the year they won here, as well. Take a look at Driving Accuracy this week, and try to avoid the golfers near the top of the list.

The next stat to look at is Greens in Regulation. Just like Driving Accuracy, it is actually the lower ranked GIR golfers that excel here. A majority of approach shots this week are coming in with long irons. If you must take a GIR machine, look for someone that can come in from any distance like Graham DeLaet or Ryan Moore. Charlie Beljan led the field here last year hitting 72% of Greens in Reg. For the 2013 season, Beljan was 6th in GIR from 200+ yards but ranked outside the Top 75 from every other distance. Don’t rely on Greens in Regulation this week unless you know that golfer is handy with their long irons.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

WGC Bridgestone – Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott

AT&T National – Bill Haas, Tiger Woods, Nick Watney

Valspar Championship – Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald, Gary Woodland

the Memorial – Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker

Humana Challenge – Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson

Players to Watch

Dustin Johnson: One of DJ’s favorite courses, or so he says. He’s been very hit or miss here with three Top 10s in his last five appearances at The RIV but also two missed cuts in that same time frame. I really like his chances this week but wouldn’t fall out of my chair if he missed the cut, either.

Graham DeLaet: Master with the long irons. That should really come in handy this week as the course set up requires a lot of long iron approach shots. I didn’t climb on board during the Waste Management Phoenix Open due to course history, but I’m not making that mistake again. I think this is the perfect course for Graham to escape with his first win before the Tour leaves for the Florida swing in a couple weeks.

Hideki Matsuyama: The guy nobody really talks about but keeps performing at an extremely high level. He dropped Top 20 finishes in all three majors he appeared at last year, so you know he’s not scared of the bright lights or tough courses. He has four international wins in his last 22 tournaments played. The winning pedigree is there. He doesn’t mind Cali, either. His two stops here have led to a 16th at the Farmers and 3rd place at Frys.com Open. He’s a Top 25 machine and it’s just a matter of time before he’s in the winner’s circle. This could be the week.

Bill Haas: Haas is kind of a big deal around here. He has a Riviera scoring average of 69.17 over the past three years. That is first among golfers that have played at least two tournaments in that time. He’s about as safe as they get this week.

J.B. Holmes: Since returning from injuries, Holmes has a 23rd, 58th, and 61st place finish. Nothing to write home about. His history at the RIV is definitely something to write home about, though. Holmes (JB, not Sherlock) has five Top 15 finishes in his last six trips to Riviera. Talk about horse for the course. Holmes eats up Par 5′s and is solid in his approach shots as the distance furthers. Take a hard look at him this week.

Webb Simpson: His form is outstanding, his course history is limited but great. What’s not to like with Webb? How about his mediocrity when it comes to playing in strong fields? Since 2012, his average finish in 13 tournaments with strong fields is 55th. He’s finished outside the Top 60 in seven of thirteen tournaments. I don’t like my studs to be teetering around the cut line, so I’m going to politely pass on Webb this week.

Justin Rose: Rose is returning from Shoulder tendinitis. Rose says he wants to play the next four weeks, so the shoulder appears to be fine, but the potential problem is rust. In a press conference Rose admitted that he just started hitting balls again a couple weeks ago. This is seen as a warmup tournament for Rose. I really wish Rose was fully healthy, because this would definitely be a great spot to back him.

Hunter Mahan: Things got ugly for Mahan on Sunday at Pebble. It was still a great tournament overall, but his vibe on Sunday was off-putting to say the least. He should bounce back strong this week as long as he forgets about last Sunday.

Keegan Bradley: Speaking of forgetting. You have to hope Keegan has forgot about his lovely 80-burger during the Waste Management. This should be a good tournament for Keegan to bounce back at because he can destroy Par 5′s and Riviera has a couple Par 5′s that are ripe for the pickin.

Luke Guthrie: At the beginning of last year, I thought Guthrie was going to be my boy. I thought he was the next breakout star. I had it narrowed down to him or Morgan Hoffmann. Both showed promise at times, but Jordan Spieth turned out to be that guy. Luke Guthrie is back in the mix now. At least for one more week. Guthrie plays his best golf in California. Five of his last seven California tournaments have resulted in Top 30 finishes. He also posted an impressive 21st here last year in his NTO debut.

Charl Schwartzel: The fairways at Riviera are kikuyu. The same grass often found in South African courses. Charl has five Euro Tour wins in South Africa. Charl finished 3rd here last year in his debut. Since the TOUR Championship, Charl has four Top 10s in international play. You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to put these pieces together. Charl should have a good week.

Brendon Todd: I don’t know how I can leave him off my Top 25. He’s made all eight cuts this year and finished Top 25 in four of those. I want to get on the Todd Train, I really do, but there are just so many safer options this week.

Brian Stuard: Basically the same story as Brendon Todd. Stuard also has four Top 25′s in eight tries this year. He also finished Top 10 in three of those. He’s made the cut in his last six California tournaments. Might be worth a look this week.

Ernie Els: He doesn’t his fairways and he doesn’t hit greens. He just finds a way to score. He was 143rd in Driving Accuracy last year and 163rd in Greens in Regulation. This is one of the few tournaments were those stats will be a plus for him. Ernie should be a name you see near the top come Sunday.

Jimmy Walker: I saved the best for last. Jimmy Walker has been killin’ it on the West Coast. His three wins already puts him in elite company. Could he possibly make it four wins before March? It seems really unlikely. You have to think a regression/cold streak is coming at some point. I’m not banking on it happening this week. Anytime he tees it up in California, he will be in my Top 10. I just don’t consider him a favorite this week. Odd.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Northern Trust Open

1. Graham DeLaet

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Bill Haas

4. Hideki Matsuyama

5. Hunter Mahan

6. Matt Kuchar

7. Charl Schwartzel

8. Ryan Moore

9. Jimmy Walker

10. Webb Simpson

11. Jim Furyk

12. Keegan Bradley

13. Jordan Spieth

14. Justin Rose

15. K.J. Choi

16. Ernie Els

17. J.B. Holmes

18. Kevin Stadler

19. Lee Westwood

20. Jason Dufner

21. Kevin Na

22. Cameron Tringale

23. Bubba Watson

24. Luke Guthrie

25. Matt Jones

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Fantasy Golf Contests

GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Winner gets a $100 gift card.

GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance at a $100 gift card.

DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Starting off strong, with a massive $50,000 contest this week. Salary-cap format. You’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t try them out this week.

Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out for sure.

DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.

GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.

Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.

DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.

FanThrowdown: FanThrowdown is another Daily Fantasy Sports site. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from 25 cents to $109. They even offer a weekly freeroll if you want to try it out.

Northern Trust Open – DraftKings Edition

All Hail! King of Cali, Jimmy Walker! Jimmy Walker is playing like a man possessed by some sort of higher golfing power. It looks like all that work with his buddy, Bruce Bowen, is finally paying off. For the longest time, whenever Jimmy Walker was in contention the announcers would bring up his connection to Bruce Bowen and talk about how Bowen has been working with him to get him on the winning mindset. I guess something finally clicked, and now Walker is reaping all the benefits. Winning all the moneys, as the kids might say.

This week, Walker will try to continue his West Coast Domination Tour as the golfers head to Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles. Be on the look out for the full preview tomorrow but for now, let’s have some fun with DraftKings.

Let’s take a look at the past five years of the Northern Trust Open and see what we can expect in terms of DraftKings Points.

The first thing we notice this week is the importance of making the cut compared to last week. Last week, everyone had a guaranteed three rounds, so a Stars and Scrubs approach was ideal. Last week you could take a risk on two very low priced golfers because they were likely going to give you 40+ DraftKings points. The average DraftKings points of golfers that miss the cut at Pebble is 40 while the winners at Pebble usually score 115 points. That’s a 2.9 winner-to-cut ratio.

If we take a look at our handy Expected DraftKings Chart, we see it’s a different story this week at the Northern Trust. It’s one of the hardest course on Tour, and some golfers will put up some real stinkers. The average DraftKings points produced by the winners here at Riviera has been 116. The opposite side of the spectrum, the average score by golfers that miss the cut is a lowly 21 DraftKings Points. That’s a 5.5 winner-to-cut ratio. Basically, you could put together an entire roster full of golfers that miss the cut and they would barely outscore the winner this week. A balanced approach is going to be ideal this week unless you want to try stars and scrubs and hope you get lucky.

Now let’s experiment with some lineup options:

Team California

Jimmy Walker was crowned King of Cali last week so let’s make him our California team captain and then fill in the roster with the best available underneath our remaining salary. I will also include their last 5 results from California tournaments.

Jimmy Walker ($10,500): 1st-83rd-1st-16th-3rd

Ernie Els ($7,900): -13th-16th-9th-59th-52nd

Luke Guthrie ($7,400): 23rd-18th-40th-21st-26th

Freddie Jacobson ($7,000): 77th-76th-81st-3rd-7th

Will Mackenzie ($8,600): 13th-7th-13th-9th-15th

This leaves you with $8,600 left to spend on your last golfer. K.J. Choi, Lee Westwood, and Bryce Molder all fit the mold nicely (see what I did there?) and have some Cali success. Freddie Yuck has been fading lately if you look at his last five in California. Might not be a bad idea to replace him with one of the three names mentioned and go from there.

Goin’ Lowww

Let’s take a look at some course history and see who can go low here. Haas, Baddeley, Walker, and Goydos all have at least five rounds in the 60s during their last ten Riviera rounds. That will be our core team and and then we can add two more golfers from there.

Bill Haas ($9,500): Six of his last 10 rounds in the 60s, average = 68.9

Aaron Baddeley ($6,900): Six of his last 10 rounds in the 60s, average = 70.1

Jimmy Walker ($10,500): Six of his last 10 rounds in the 60s, average = 69.6

Paul Goydos ($4,500): Five of his last 10 rounds in the 60s, average = 70.2

Webb Simpson ($10,100): Four of his 8 rounds in the 60s, average = 69.0

This leaves your team with $8,500 to spend on the last golfer. That’s enough to fit guys like Ernie Els, Bryce Molder, or John Merrick. All three of them have gone sub-70 at Riviera in four of their last ten rounds.

Can’t Find A Fairway

The full preview is coming tomorrow but here is a preview: accuracy off the tee isn’t important for the second consecutive week. Just like last week, golfers that usually can’t hit a fairway off the tee have had a lot of success here in the past. No wonder Jimmy Walker loves this course. This team is going to look at Driving Accuracy from 2013 and pick from the bottom up.

Aaron Baddeley ($6,900): 179th Driving Accuracy in 2013.

Jimmy Walker ($10,500): 176th Driving Accuracy in 2013.

Steven Bowditch ($6,800): 174th Driving Accuracy in 2013.

Charles Howell III ($10,100): 173rd Driving Accuracy in 2013.

Jason Kokrak ($8,500): 172nd Driving Accuracy in 2013.

Sorry but I only left you with $7,200 to work with for your last golfer. If you continue to go with the most inaccurate off the tee then Martin Flores ($7,000) or Nicolas Colsaerts ($6,700) are two options to look at.

Now you have some names to keep in mind while setting your DraftKings lineups this week. Be on the look out tomorrow for the full tournament preview.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – DraftKings Edition

I wasn’t planning on making this a regular feature but it got some good feedback and some people even cashed some lineups thanks to my crazy lineups. So let’s give this another go, and get you ready to play Fantasy PGA contests at DraftKings this week.

Before we get into lineups, let’s talk about expectations. If you want to look at expected value, you need to know what each finishing spot is going to provide you in DraftKings points. If we look at scores over the past three seasons we can expect the winner of the tournament to score around 126 DraftKings points, with a large majority of those coming on Sunday. Each of the past three winners has scored at least 27 DraftKings points during their Sunday Round. Take a look at the table below to see expectations for each finishing spot. Each column represents the average DraftKings points for that course.

One thing I want to point out is the importance of Pebble Beach Golf Links. Take a look at the Top 25 line and compare it to the Top 50 line. Notice how there is a 3.4 points difference between Pebble Beach scores but only a 0.1 and 1 point difference among the other courses. Basically if you can’t play Pebble well, you aren’t going to get into the Top 25. Of course this makes sense because Round 4 is also played at Pebble Beach, but it could easily be overlooked.

With that being said, let’s build our first lineup using Pebble Beach Scoring Average. I’m going to use a minimum of 5 rounds played at Pebble to qualify, and then just go down the line using the best available who fits under the salary remaining.

Team Pebble Beach

Matt Every ($8,200): Ranks 4th in Pebble Beach Scoring Average with 70.3 in 7 rounds.

Ricky Barnes ($7,300): 7 Rounds for Barnes with a Scoring Average of 70.3 as well. Playing with Tom Brady might help him discover how to win.

Jason Bohn ($6,800): Jason Bohn is Mr. Consistent at Pebble Beach, posting rounds Under Par in eight of his last ten rounds at the course.

Aaron Baddeley ($7,900): Baddeley loves playing Pebble Beach, so it’s no surprise he’s posted four Top 20s in five attempts. His last ten rounds at Pebble are all Par or Better.

Hunter Mahan ($9,600): Mahan has the consistency and the ability to go low. Seven of his last 10 rounds at Pebble have been under par with five of those being Sub-70.

This leaves us with $10,200 in salary. We just missed out on #1 and #2 at Pebble Beach, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day. However, Jimmy Walker, Phil Mickelson, and Brandt Snedeker all fit in nicely.

Team Good Form

This team will be comprised of players that are hot right now. DraftKings tightened their pricing since last week so I can’t go straight down the line like I could last week. Instead I will find the hottest golfer that fits under the salary cap and go from there. That means the hottest golfers like Jimmy Walker, K.J. Choi, and Chris Kirk might not make the team when all is said and done.

Matt Every ($8,200): 37th-13th-8th-36th-7th-47th

Jason Bohn ($6,800): 34th-33rd-3rd-102nd-40th-2nd

Brendon Todd ($8,600): 37th-6th-20th-49th-16th-26th-12th

K.J. Choi ($8,800): 42nd-2nd-20th-14th

Will Mackenzie ($8,100): 7th-13th-80th-12th-102nd-9th-15th

That leaves us with $9,500 left in salary. Unfortunately $100 away from Hunter Mahan. Not a great number. Our options from here are Charley Hoffman, Graeme McDowell, or Pat Perez.

Like the looks of this team? Try entering the $12 DraftKings Contest where the winner takes home $1,000.

Team California

Cali-fornia Golfers, they’re undeniable. Fine, fresh, fierce. They got it on lock. -Katy Perry

This team will be based of performances in California tournaments since the start of 2012.

Will Mackenzie ($8,100): 7th-13th-9th

Robert Garrigus ($8,200): 28th-94th-12th-22nd-7th-16th-73rd-20th-94th-2nd

Freddie Jacobson ($8,400): 76th-81st-3rd-7th-15th-13th

Tyrone Van Aswegen ($7,200): 37th-25th-40th

K.J. Choi ($8,800): 2nd-33rd-15th-15th-24th

That leaves $9,300 left to spend on the last player spot. Jim Furyk has a good track record in Cali and only costs $8,900. Other options include Charlie Wi, Bryce Molder, Ryan Palmer, and Pat Perez.

Team Short Course

All three courses this week are less than 7,000 yards. That definitely fits into the classification of ‘Short Course’. Some players continually play better on short courses. Sometimes it’s because of their length, sometimes it’s just a coincidence. Either way, this team is full of players with recent success on short tracks.

Brian Gay ($7,500): 94th-32nd-45th-4th-61st-51st-1st-31st-28th-80th-20th-42nd-6th

Padraig Harrington ($8,100): 72nd-21st-84th-38th-11th-7th

Brendon Todd ($8,600): 6th-20th-49th-16th-113th-109th-19th-88th-9th-26th-13th

Patrick Reed ($8,500): 1st-7th-18th-7th-113th-111th-46th

Josh Teater ($7,200): 33rd-104th-23rd-56th-50th-93rd-15th-4th-35th-22nd-38th

That leaves you with $10,100 left to spend on your 6th golfer. Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Jordan Spieth, Jimmy Walker, and Phil Mickelson are all viable options in that range.

These are just a few ideas to help you make your lineups over at DraftKings. Let me know if you have any crazy requests for next week and I’ll see if I can make it happen. Until then, good luck and happy folfing! (Fantasy Golfing).

FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $12 Pebble Beach Contest to win $1K

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Preview

Kevin Stadler, the Baby Walrus, finally got his first PGA Tour victory last week. We all knew it was coming eventually but I must say I was a little surprised it was last week. It just goes to show that if you play well enough tee to green, you don’t have to be a great putter to win. Stadler and Bubba are two of the worst putters on the Tour yet they were battling down the stretch for a PGA win because of their great ball striking. Now Stadler gets to tee it up again after celebrating his first PGA Tour win and trying to get over his Broncos getting blown out in the Super Bowl. Good luck with that hangover.

However there are are plenty of other options this week as the PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach. This isn’t your regular PGA Tour event, though. It is played in the Pro-Am format where celebrities and amateurs play alongside the pros and is played on three different courses, as well. It’s a lot like the Humana Challenge, but don’t try to use Humana Challenge results to predict this week. Humana Challenge is a birdiefest, often won with a winning score in the mid-twenties. Meanwhile, Pebble Beach average winning score has been 16-under par over the past five years.

The golfers will rotate among three courses Thursday through Saturday and then the cut will happen after Day Three. The cut will be smaller than usual thanks to the Pro-Am format. It will be Top 60 instead of the usual Top 70. All three courses are super short, but short does not equal easy. Weather will often decide how easy or hard these courses play. For more about course difficulty, check out the Course Breakdown.

Correlated Stats

There is one key stat to look at this week. Driving Accuracy. Probably not how you expect it though. This week you want players that are not accurate off the tee. The fairways are very generous this week, so accurate players look their usual advantage that they have because everyone will be hitting a majority of the fairways this week. Instead this week you gotta be handy with the steel, if you know what I mean. Since 2007, only two players ranked inside the Top 25 in Driving Accuracy during that respective season finish inside the Top 5 here at Pebble Beach. 76% of the golfers that finish in the Top 5 here at Pebble are ranked 60th or worse in Driving Accuracy for the season. The average Driving Accuracy rank of the past seven winners is 135th.

In the same fashion, you should avoid golfers that are traditionally good at hitting Greens in Regulation. I’m not saying it’s impossible for a GIR machine to do well here but they just lose a huge advantage that they have on most courses thanks to the setup here at Pebble Beach. Over 80% of the golfers that finish Top 5 at this tournament were outside the Top 60 in GIR for that respective season. Pretty remarkable stats, and I’m not sure I’ve seen any other tournament stats like this.

Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners

Wells Fargo Championship – Derek Ernst, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Tiger Woods, Tiger Woods, Martin Laird

HP Bryon Nelson – Sang-Moon Bae, Jason Dufner, Keegan Bradley

Honda Classic – Michael Thompson, Rory McIlroy, Rory Sabbatini

Sony Open – Jimmy Walker, Russell Henley, Johnson Wagner

Players to Watch

Tom Brady: Tom Brady is paired with Ricky Barnes this week. Look out for this group as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are in the same foursome. That duo knows how to win.

Jimmy Walker: It’s the year of Jimmy Walker, and I expect it to continue this week. His last three finishes in this tournament are 3rd, 9th, and 9th. Nine of his last ten tournaments in California have resulted in Top 25s. He has finished inside the Top 30 in five straight tournaments played on short courses (under 7100 yards). Need I say more?

Jason Day: Everything is lining up for a monster year for the Aussie. His injury problems are in the past, he cut his hair, and he has three straight Top 10s since the TOUR Championship. Two of them overseas. Day was 138th in Driving Accuracy last year and 98th in Greens in Regulation, that certainly bodes well with the Correlated Stats we talked about. He is also 7-for-7 at going Under Par at the host course, Pebble Beach Golf Links. That will be key since they play 36 holes there.

Dustin Johnson: We all remember last year when Paulina and Dustin were still a relatively new item. This is DJ’s course, he owns it. So when he missed the cut everyone was quick to point out the nerves of playing with his girlfriends father, the Great Wayne Gretzky. They even blamed Paulina because she was following him around the course. By they, I mean me. I was thinking of any reason to justify DJ burning me. The DJ-Paulina relationship is no longer in the infancy stage, and I’m sure there are no longer any nervous feelings when he is around the Great One. That should help him regain his mojo here. Keyword: should.

Hunter Mahan: Mahan doesn’t fit the statistical profile here. He is too accurate, and hits too many greens in regulation. That hasn’t stopped him from going low on Pebble Beach in the past. Five of his last 10 rounds at the host course have been Sub-70. He does love playing in California, though, and can really take advantage of short courses. It would be weird if he didn’t finish in the Top 25 this week.

Matt Jones: Another Aussie that should be in contention this week. Jones took control of his golf game last year. He was tired of being a mediocre Tour player so he put in the extra effort and commitment to raise his game. He was tired of living paycheck to paycheck. Okay, I made that last part up. I’m sure he was just fine financially. His bank account will be even more cushy after this weekend when he deposits one of those giant Happy Gilmore checks. Jones already had success here when he was an average PGA golfer, so he should definitely be in contention come Sunday.

Matt Every: Every has made 10 straight cuts. Who is this guy? This isn’t the same Matt Every that I’m used to. It’s a little scary because Every is not supposed to be this consistent, but you can’t ignore it for now. Continue to ride him while he’s swinging a hot club. He has finished 31st or better three out of the four times he’s played this tournament, so why not.

Spencer Levin: I was on Levin last week where he finished 29th, and will continue to ride the California native as long as we are still on the West Coast. It’s no surprise that the Cali Boy has had success here at Pebble Beach in the past. He fits the statistical profile of bad Driving Accuracy and bad GIR (Ranked 151st and 173rd back in 2012). He has three Top 15 finishes here in four attempts. Keep an eye on him this week.

Graeme McDowell: Graeme, Mr. Links himself. If the weather report was ugly this week I would be all about Graeme, but it’s not. It is supposed to be nice weather with winds < 15 mph. Graeme won here in 2010 when the U.S. Open came to town, but these are a lot different conditions. His accuracy off the tee won’t be needed this week, and his great wind game won’t come into play either. He is a decent option still, but don’t consider him one of the favorites.

Chris Kirk: If you are looking for a reason to back Kirk this week, consider the short course angle. Kirk has finished Top 5 in five of his last eight tournaments played on courses < 7100 yards. He finished Runner-Up here last year, as well. He should bounce back from his poor weekend play in Phoenix to contend again this week.

Jason Kokrak: Mr. Inconsistent is becoming not so inconsistent. He has made 11 of his last 15 cuts and already has four Top 20s during the 2013/14 wraparound season. The generous fairways should be to his liking this week, as Kokrak loves to spray the ball everywhere. You got to like him this week.

Aaron Baddeley: If you want to lean very heavily on course form then Badds is your man this week. Four Top 20s here in five tries. His recent play leaves a lot to be desired though.

Russell Knox: Mr. Web.com 59 can go low, and may have found his groove. He has finished 32nd or better in six of the seven events he’s played this year. He finished 28th here last year which would be reasonable to expect again.

Robert Garrigus: Garrigus gobbles up short courses. He’s finished Top 25 in six of his last nine tournaments played on short courses. He’s also finished Top 30 five of the last six times he’s teed it up in Cali. If he finds a way to roll some putts this week, he could be in serious contention.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat: This venue should be perfect for the ‘Asian John Daly’. Aphibarnrat was 88th in Driving Accuracy on the European Tour last year. It’s safe to say he’s a little wild off the tee but he’s a magician with his irons. Barnrat just missed a spot in the Top 25, but I like him a lot this week.

Michael Putnam: Putnam has made six of eight cuts this year, nothing spectacular but he has some decent course history (55th, 36th). In salary cap formats, he might be worth a look.

Bryce Molder: Molder loves Links golf, and has made 15 straight cuts. He’s finished 12th or better three of his past four Pebble Beach Pro-Am’s. Look for Molder to be hovering around the Top 25 all weekend.

My Top 25 for the 2014 Waste Management Phoenix Open

1. Jason Day

2. Dustin Johnson

3. Jimmy Walker

4. Hunter Mahan

5. Matt Jones

6. Spencer Levin

7. K.J. Choi

8. Matt Every

9. Patrick Reed

10. Pat Perez

11. Jordan Spieth

12. Graeme McDowell

13. Nick Watney

14. Jim Furyk

15. Chris Kirk

16. Jason Kokrak

17. Charley Hoffman

18. Kevin Stadler

19. Phil Mickelson

20. Aaron Baddeley

21. Brian Gay

22. Russell Knox

23. Robert Garrigus

24. Bryce Molder

25. Will MacKenzie

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