WGC Accenture Match Play Fantasy Preview
March Madness comes a month early for golf fans. February Madness kicks off this week at Dove Mountain in Arizona. 64 elite golfers go head-to-head in a single elimination challenge. The course is in the mountains, as the name suggests. Golfers have to deal with elevation, altitude, plenty of bunkers, wide fairways, and the course nearly stretches to 7,800 yards. Sometimes weather becomes a factor as well.
There are a few notable no-shows this year as Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson are not in the field for various reasons. That is three of the top four ranked golfers in the world. Could you imagine if Syracuse, Florida, and Arizona decided they were going to skip the NCAA Tournament this year? That’s kind of what is happening here. I think that will change next year when the venue changes because Dove Mountain is currently one of the least liked courses on Tour.
The next piece of advice is sort of a disclaimer. This is a match play event, and really anything can happen. You can’t have a bad stretch of holes and then just shake it off and go low the next day. The ‘favorites’ you currently have pegged for the Final Four, could easily lose first round. It’s not like the NCAA March Madness where 1 and 2 seeds are pretty safe to advance. Nobody is safe. There have been an average of 13 Round One upsets since the tournament began 15 years ago. If you pick by higher seeds, you’re gonna have a bad time. You can basically take the seed numbers and throw them out the window because 40% of the seeds that should win on paper will be gone after Round One.
Correlated Stats
This is the third week in a row that you can throw Driving Accuracy out the window. The fairways are very generous to say the least. Players like Rory, Bubba, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, and Bubba Watson can take advantage of this since they aren’t the most accurate off the tee.
Like most weeks, Adjusted Scoring Average has the most correlation to success. If you need one stat to look at, make it Adjusted Scoring. Make sure you take a look at 2014 as well as 2013 since the 2014 sample size is currently so tiny.
Bobby Jones Bracket
Chalk: Jason Day
Sleeper: Thongchai Jaidee
Best Match-Up: Patrick Reed vs. Graham DeLaet
Jason Day has made it past the first round in all three appearances here. That’s more than a lot of players can say. He finished 3rd last year, and should be able to make another run this year.
Thongchai Jaidee is my sleeper in this Region. Jaidee made it to the Quarterfinals in 2010 before losing to the eventual champion, Ian Poulter. He took Sergio to 20 holes last year in this event. He also finished runner-up to Graeme McDowell in last years Volvo Match Play event. Jaidee is a sneaky good match play golfer. Watch out Webb Simpson.
Ben Hogan Bracket
Chalk: Rory McIlroy & Ian Poulter
Sleeper: Miguel Angel Jimenez & Marc Leishman
Best Match-Up: Sergio Garcia vs. Marc Leishman
It’s hard to say who the chalk is in this bracket. Rory McIlroy is on fire lately, and made it to the Championship here just two years ago. Ian Poulter is a Match Play magician, and won it here in 2010. It would be surprising if one of these two didn’t come out of this bracket. At the same time, it wouldn’t be surprising if one of them lost first round. That’s how Match Play goes a lot of the time.
Miguel Angel Jimenez likes it here. He is 6-4 since 2009, 5-2 in his last two tournaments here. He is old, but can still hang with the young guns. His first round matchup is ideal too, since Haas is 0-3 here and has never made it out of the first round.
Marc Leishman doesn’t have much of a match play track record but he has played very well this year, should benefit from the generous fairways, and Sergio has been mediocre in this event in the past. I wouldn’t say it’s likely, but it’s definitely possible that we see a 10 vs 15 seed matchup with Leishman vs Jimenez.
Gary Player Bracket
Chalk: Matt Kuchar
Sleeper: Scott Piercy
Best Match-Up: Luke Donald vs. Matteo Manassero
Matt Kuchar is the defending champ here and it was no fluke, either. Kuchar is 15-3 at the Golf Club at Dove Mountain. His wins haven’t been overly impressive but he just keeps finding a way to win here. He’s never won by more than 3 holes but his clock has been cleaned twice by Hunter Mahan and Luke Donald. Both golfers beat him by an impressive 5 holes. He is not invincible. Considering his performance last week, I am not banking on a deep run this week by Kuchar.
Scott Piercy loves desert golf. I’ve learned never to fade Piercy at desert courses. Piercy was completely out of form early in the season, missing 3 of 5 cuts and withdrawing from the other event he entered. Then he got to visit TPC Scottsdale. Boom! 15th place finish. How is his Dove Mountain match play record? Well, he destroyed Luke Donald 7&6 last year, destroyed Paul Lawrie 4&3 but then fell short in the third round vs. Steve Stricker. The wide fairways should also benefit Piercy this week, as he never finishes inside the Top 150 when it comes to Driving Accuracy. If Piercy can sneak by Rose in Round One, he could make a deep run.
Sam Snead Bracket
Chalk: Hunter Mahan
Sleeper: Martin Kaymer
Best Match-Up: Hideki Matsuyama vs. Martin Kaymer
Hunter Mahan is 11-4 at this event since 2009. He won it in 2012 and finished runner-up in 2013. It’s safe to say he likes it here. He doesn’t have the easiest first round matchup against Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano. Castano made it to the third round last year before losing to Webb Simpson. He also went blow for blow against Tiger back in 2012.
Martin Kaymer is the 12 seed and gets to face the young Japanese phenom, Matsuyama. Matsuyama can seemingly do no wrong, but Kaymer definitely has the experience and course history advantage in this matchup. Kaymer is 11-5 since 2009, with zero first-round exits. His Golf Club at Dove Mountain resume also includes a runner-up finish in 2011. Kaymer could make a deep run if he can sneak past Matsuyama in Round One.
My Top 25 for the 2014 WGC Accenture Match Play
1. Hunter Mahan
2. Ian Poulter
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Jason Day
5. Nick Watney
6. Bubba Watson
7. Rory McIlroy
8. Lee Westwood
9. Luke Donald
10. Scott Piercy
11. Martin Kaymer
12. Ernie Els
13. Jordan Spieth
14. Thongchai Jaidee
15. Patrick Reed
16. Ernie Els
17. Keegan Bradley
18. Webb Simpson
19. Steve Stricker
20. Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
21. Rickie Fowler
22. Sergio Garcia
23. Charl Schwartzel
24. Miguel Angel Jimenez
25. Dustin Johnson
Fantasy Golf Contests
GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. $100 GolfSmith Gift Card to the winner.
GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. The Prize Pool is awesome this week. Winner gets a Stay-and-Play package for 2 from La Quinta Resort & Club Fujikura golf prize package, SeeMore Putter (FGP Series or Si Series), and a Golfweek Digital Subscription.
Fantasy Feud: Fantasy Feud is one of the few sites offering Match Play contests. They have a mammoth $2,500 contest that is $109 to enter. Check them out for sure.
