Josh Culp's Blog, page 54
March 28, 2014
Fantasy Reflections: The True Signifier of Spring
Many words have been spilled onto the pages of the good-for-nothing-but-fishwraps newspapers about Opening Day of the Major League Baseball season. Scriveners from Santa Monica to Long Island write in rose-colored prose about how Opening Day signifies to the American zeitgeist the coming of Spring and the hope and jovial feelings of the season.
It’s all bogus.
For the 21st Century sporting man who plays fantasy baseball, that feeling comes weeks earlier at the fantasy baseball draft.
The oppressive winter air weighs heavily upon the sporting man’s shoulders in early March. With the drunken violence of the professional football season having been over for a month, the sporting man has only the prospect of drafting well in his fantasy baseball draft to look forward to.
Indeed, three months into the new year, the sporting man likely realizes that the world is just the same as it ever was. Society’s bleeding hearts will cry, the conservatives will be dicks, and meanwhile the sporting man is one year older than he was at this point last year. This is not unusual. However, the sporting man has nothing to show for a year of useless passions other than fourth-place finishes in his fantasy football, baseball and basketball leagues.
But the fantasy baseball draft is truly a chance for a new start, a clean slate – except for those pesky keepers.
The way my fantasy baseball league is set up is that we can each keep five guys from the year before, and then we have 18 guys to pick up in a snake-style draft after that.
Something about shoring up the infield seemed like a good idea, so I kept Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria and Ian Desmond to take care of 2B, 3B and SS. I also kept pitcher Chris Sale for no other reason than that he was a top-10 pitcher according to ESPN, and Texas outfielder Shin-Soo Choo because he’s got the most awesome name in baseball.
I was very pleased to have drafted Coco “named-after-a-cereal” Crisp, Pablo “Panda Bear” Sandoval, and Zack “socially awkward as shit” Greinke on my team. The relevant parts of the rest of my draft picks can best be described in hyphenated descriptors:
The somewhat-educated-sleeper pick: Sonny Gray, pitcher, Oakland.
The maybe-might-have-something-left-but-probably-not-late-round pick: John Lackey, pitcher, Boston.
The totally-a-homer-late-round pick: Andre Ethier, outfield, Los Angeles (Yes, haters, I’m a Dodgers fan).
The this-guy-is-certainly-going-to-suck pick: Brett Gardner, outfield, NYY.
The you-know-this-might-pick-up-some-pitching-category-stats pick: Koji Uehara, pitcher, Boston.
The maybe-I’ll-look-really-smart-in-August-if-I-hold-on-to-as-my-last-round-pick pick: Byron Buxton, outfield, Minnesota.
As you may have already surmised, I’m still a novice at fantasy baseball. This is only my second year playing in this or any other fantasy baseball league. The draft, though, is the best part. You get together with some friends, watch the ACC basketball tournament, if someone chooses a player who had already been picked in an earlier round you call him “virgin” like a bunch of fraternity brother at a Baptist Bible College, and drink White Hawk IPA beer (brewed by the Mendocino Brewing Company).
In a few weeks the dogwood flowers will bloom here in Raleigh, North Carolina. Yet, with the completion of a fantasy baseball draft, the renewing breaths of spring air arrived early for a sporting man.
For more on the cultural and societal significance of fantasy sports, check out Brett’s blog, The First Draft.
March 27, 2014
Sweet 16 – Fantasy Sports Edition
In case you missed it last week, I posted my projections region-by-region for the NCAA Tourney. There have been plenty of upsets early in the tournament but the model has stood its ground relatively well. If you went strictly by the model, you’d have 11-of-16 teams still dancing, including Tennessee and Baylor. Not bad.
Go back and read the intro to that post if you want to know the details on the model. But now, let’s take a look at the updated projections for the Sweet 16 and on.
Sweet 16 compared to Vegas:
Model says Florida by 1 with a 139 Total, Vegas says Florida by 4.5 with a 137 Total.
Model says Dayton by 2 with a 140 Total, Vegas says Stanford by 3.5 with a 133 Total.
Model says Mich State by 4 with a 132 Total, Vegas says Mich State by 2 with a 127 Total.
Model says UConn by 1 with a 146 Total, Vegas says Iowa State by 1.5 with a 146 Total.
Model says Arizona by 9 with a 129 Total, Vegas says Arizona by 7.5 with a 121.5 Total.
Model says Wisconsin by 2 with a 140 Total, Vegas says Wisconsin by 3.5 with a 137 Total.
Model says Louisville by 13 with a 143 Total, Vegas says Louisville by 4.5 with a 138.5 Total.
Model says Tennessee by 6 with a 136 Total, Vegas says Michigan by 2.5 with a 134 Total.
Note: The biggest differentials are in favor of Dayton, Louisville, and Tennessee. Everything else is projected with one basket of the Vegas line.
Note #2: The one potential problem with teams like Louisville and Tennessee is blowouts. I don’t have anything put in place to “cap” a blowout game, if you will. For example, you can imagine the kind of fantasy stat differential that took place when Louisville blew out Rutgers by 61 points and 48 points, or when they blew out South Florida by 39 points. The Vols are no stranger to blowouts either. They took care of Virginia by 35 points and also have 25+ point victories over Auburn, Mizzou, and Vandy. Blowouts can say a lot about a team, but in this instance, it’s probably overkill and it slightly inflates their overall team rating.
Note 3: The model projects the Elite 8 to be a snooze-fest with all four of the games projected to be won by 9 or more points.
Happy Sweet 16ing. Anyone know of any good Sweet 16 Round-by-Round contests?
March 26, 2014
Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview
The Florida Gators advanced to the Sweet 16 and Matt Every won his first PGA TOUR event. It was a good week to be a Gators fan. Now that we have that out of the way, we can forget the Gators exist because we are leaving Florida and heading to Texas for a couple weeks. A Texas two-stop if you will.
The first stop will be in San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. It’s important to note that the venue changed here in 2010, so course history should only go back four years. It’s also important to take a look at the PGA TOUR schedule. This tournament has been moved around quite frequently. Last year the VTO was played the first before the Masters. The year before that it was played two weeks after the Masters. In 2011 the Valero took place right after the Masters.
This is important to notice because the schedule attracts different golfers. The strength of field improved dramatically last year when it was placed before the Masters. It’s still a relatively weak field due to W/Ds, but it’s trending in the right direction.
The course itself is a long one, stretching out to 7,435 yards on the scorecard. The course was designed by Greg Norman in 2009. There are only three water hazards which will be a relief for the golfers that just left the Florida Swing. They’ve seen enough water to last them a few months.
Don’t forget to comment on the Majors Contest Giveaway for your chance to win a free entry, which will start at the Masters.
Correlated Stats
If you are a frequent reader of this column, you know how I feel about driving accuracy. It is the most overrated statistic in golf, and it appears that people are falling for the trap again this week. What’s even better is how a lot of analysts will pick and choose who driving accuracy is important for. If Driving Accuracy is so important, why don’t they pick Heath Slocum or Mark Wilson every week?
I’m done with that rant but not done talking about driving accuracy. During the four years the VTO has been played at TPC San Antonio, there have been 24 golfers that have finished in the top 5. 13-of-24 (54%) have been ranked outside the top 100 in driving accuracy at the end of that season. 16-of-24 (67%) have been ranked outside the Top 75 in driving accuracy. Just ignore the accuracy stat all together, please.
Some stats you DO want to look at this week are: Adjusted Scoring, Strokes Gained Putting, Par 5 Scoring Average. All four winners here have played the par 5s at 5-under-par or better for the week.
If you like trends then consider looking at the Going For The Green stat. Take a look at the leaders in this category and you’ll see a lot of winners. In fact, 6-of-14 wins on TOUR this year reside in the Top 11 when it comes to “going for the green.” If you broaden your search to the top 50, you will encompass 10-of-14 wins in 2014 (71%). It goes to show that closer to the hole is usually better than coming in from the fairway from 100 yards out.
Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners
WGC Cadillac – Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose
TOUR Championship – Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas
Hyundai ToC - Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Steve Stricker
WGC Bridgestone – Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott
Humana Challenge – Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson
The common theme with the correlated tournaments this week is course length and/or bermudagrass greens.
Players to Watch
Phil Mickelson: The lefty has to be towards the top of your list this week. This is a course that doesn’t penalize errant tee shots, contrary to what many will try to tell you. Lefty has had plenty of recent success in Texas, as well. Since 2011, he’s finished 16th at the 2013 Shell Houston, 7th at the ’12 Byron Nelson, 4th at the ’12 Shell, and won the ’11 Shell.
Jordan Spieth: This texas alum can’t be stopped. Dating back to the Wyndham Championship, Spieth has top 25s in 12 of his last 14 tournaments. It’s hard to beat that kind of consistency at such a young age. Continue to ride him while he stays hot.
Jimmy Walker: This is a home game for Walker, but that doesn’t always translate to success. He finished third back in 2010 but has also missed the cut twice at TPC San Antonio. He has to be one of the favorites this week but his putting can’t stay this hot all year.
Zach Johnson: ZJ is a man who always has a hot putter but also has limited upside on lengthy courses. Only two of his 11 victories have come at courses over 7,400 yards. His worst finish of the year is 43rd at the API last week. You could take that result and say he is trending in the wrong direction, or you could take it and say “Hey, I’ll take a 43rd place as my worst-case scenario.” ZJ hasn’t won at a par 72 layout since 2007, and only three of his 11 victories come as par 72 tracks. The fact that we are talking about “only two victories” and “only three victories” still puts him ahead of most golfers in the field.
Jason Kokrak: Another week, another top 25 for Kokrak. That makes seven on the year. It was actually a 4th place finish, his best of the year. He continues to inch closer and closer to the winner’s circle. He currently ranks 4th in the going for the green stat that we mentioned up top.
Ryan Palmer: Much like Jimmy Walker and Jordan Spieth, being from Texas hasn’t provided any shortcuts to success here at the Valero. He’s playing some of his best golf currently with three top 10s in his last five and sits on top of the going for the green stat. Palmer is basically grippin’ and rippin’ on every hole.
John Huh: If Huh was in form, I would be all over him this week. He has great history in Texas. 5-of-8 finishes in the Lone Star State have been 14th or better. Unfortunately, he’s missed four of his past five cuts which leaves you asking his last name. Where did the John Huh go that we saw during his rookie year? This Texas two-stop might be exactly what he needs to get things rolling.
Brian Davis: Just missed out on the top 25 for me this week but he’s one of my favorite sleepers of the week. He bounced back from three missed cuts last week with a 20th place finish at Arnie’s House. What really attracts me to Davis is his performance on long courses. His last six finishes on courses over 7,400 yards are as follows: 20th, 8th, 27th, 32nd, 29th, 6th. I’m penciling in Davis for a made cut with top 10 potential.
Martin Flores: Another guy that just missed my top 25 rankings. A lot of ups and downs for Flores this year but this is a course that has always caught his eye. 3-for-3 cuts made including a top 10 last year. Flores has picked it up lately as well with two top 25s in his last three outings.
Bud Cauley: See above, replace Martin Flores with Bud Cauley. They are basically in the same situation with a few minor details changed. Both should have a solid week at the Valero.
Richard Lee: A nice boom-or-bust option this week that has been playing well recently. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments played on courses stretching out past 7,400 yards.
Danny Lee: Another Lee that is worth a look. He finished 2nd in Puerto Rico, co-led the Valspar after round one, and finished 31st last week. Certainly trending in the right direction.
Charley Hoffman: I almost forgot to talk about my favorite play of the week. Hoffman is in contention every year at the Valero. Seven of his eight trips to San Antonio have resulted in finishes of 13th or better. Since the venue change in 2010, all four trips have been 13th or better for Charley. He has signed for a scorecard of par or better in 14-of-16 rounds at AT&T Oaks Course. Give Mr. Green Glove your full attention this week.
My Top 25 for the 2014 Valero Texas Open
1. Charley Hoffman
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Phil Mickelson
5. Jason Kokrak
6. Jimmy Walker
7. Ryan Palmer
8. Zach Johnson
9. Ernie Els
10. Freddie Jacobson
11. Jim Furyk
12. Pat Perez
13. Russell Knox
14. J.B. Holmes
15. Kevin Chappell
16. Brooks Koepka
17. Kevin Na
18. Brendan Steele
19. Luke Guthrie
20. K.J. Choi
21. Martin Laird
22. Will MacKenzie
23. Brendon Todd
24. Cameron Tringale
25. Billy Horschel
FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $109 Valero Texas Open Contest to win $2,500
Fantasy Golf Contests
GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.
GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.
DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.
Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.
DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.
GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.
Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.
DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.
FanThrowdown: FanThrowdown is another Daily Fantasy Sports site. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from 25 cents to $109. They even offer a weekly freeroll if you want to try it out.
March 25, 2014
Valero Texas Open – DraftKings Edition
The Florida Swing is over. It’s time to shift our attention to The Lone Star State. Check out some of these DraftKings contests shown below. They are also running plenty of qualifiers for their massive Masters contest where the winner will take home $100K. Don’t miss out on that. Let’s take a look at some lineup permutations for this week at the Valero Texas Open…
A Horse of Course
Aaron Baddeley ($7,900): 15th-3rd
Ben Curtis ($6,400): 31st-1st
Pat Perez ($8,600): 5th-22nd
Martin Laird ($9,000): 1st-9th
Freddie Jacobson ($9,000): 15th-18th-5th-2nd
The VTO has been played at AT&T Oaks since 2010. These golfers have all done quite well here. In fact, none of them have finished outside of 31st place. I wouldn’t exactly trust Ben Curtis again this year, but everyone else should be expected to hold up their end of the bargain.
Follow the Form
Danny Lee ($7,200): 31st-96th-2nd
David Lingmerth ($7,700): 52nd-58th-8th-29th
Chesson Hadley ($8,800): 26th-14th-1st-24th-78th
Will Mackenzie ($8,700): 43rd-4th-6th-52nd
John Senden ($8,500): 52nd-1st-46th-18th
All playing well currently, and I have included their results from the last six weeks. This leaves you $9,100 which is plenty of dough for the likes of Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Freddie Jacobson, or even Cameron Tringale.
Par 5 Warriors
Jhonny Vegas ($7,900): 16th in Par 5 Scoring.
Aaron Baddeley ($7,900): 25th in Par 5 Scoring.
Danny Lee ($7,200): 25th in Par 5 Scoring.
John Senden ($8,500): 6th in Par 5 Scoring.
Martin Laird ($9,000): 7th in Par 5 Scoring.
With four par 5s on the course, par 5 scoring can become quite important. You’re left with $9,500 after you pick this base team of par 5ers. I’m not going to lie, the obvious addition to this team would be Ryan Palmer who ranks 4th in par 5 scoring and will cost you exactly $9,500 on DraftKings.
Handpicked Value Plays
Bud Cauley ($6,000): After five straight missed cuts, Cauley has found some form with a T45th at Pebble Beach and T29th in Puerto Rico. What’s really important here is how much Bud enjoys golfing in Texas conditions. Most of the courses in Texas are very susceptible to wind, so it’s very promising that Cauley has four top 25s in his last six Texas starts.
John Peterson ($6,100): This is kind of like throwing a spitball and hoping it sticks. First, why are you throwing a spit ball? You shoot spitballs. If you’re looking for an off-the-board pick that has upside, Peterson could be your man. He has been vocal in the past about loving bermuda greens and playing in the South. That was almost a direct quote from his twitter page, which I can no longer link, since he’s recently deleted his account. Has he gone off-the-grid in order to refocus on the golf? He was 11-for-15 in PGA TOUR cuts made prior to 2014, and we might see him regain that confidence soon.
Brooks Koepka ($7,400): This is a big week for the young gun. He has used up all his allotted exemptions via sponsors. He must earn enough non-member FEC points to get Special Temporary Membership. Otherwise, it’s back to Europe for Mr. Koepka. Given the importance of this week, we will learn a lot about the strength of his mental game at the Valero.
FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $109 Valero Texas Open to win $2,500
Pro Tour Fantasy Golf – Majors + 1 Contest Giveaway
There are only two tournament remaining before the Masters. Time flies when you’re playing fantasy golf. Our friends at Pro Tour Fantasy Golf are excited for Major season and have decided to give away 5 free entries into their Majors + 1 Fantasy Golf Contest! What is this contest? How do you win these free entries? Find out more about the contest and how to win a free entry below:
Majors + 1 Contest
The Majors + 1 Contest includes all four Majors as well as the Players Championship (5th Major, if you will). You will pick 3 golfers before each tournament, and each golfer can only be used twice all year. The exception is made on “mulligans.” Each contestant is allowed 3 mulligans, which allows you to use a golfer for a third time. As you can see from the screenshot below, it is a simple format. You pick three golfers from a list. Simple.
You can go signup now for $10 or you can try to win a free entry by commenting below.
How to win a Free Entry
1. Comment on this post with four golfers you think will finish highest at the Valero Texas Open this weekend.
2. One entry per person.
3. Scoring will be total amount of money won by your four golfers.
4. Top 5 finishers will receive a free entry to the Masters + 1 Contest at Pro Tour Fantasy Golf. ($10 Value)
5. Make sure you use a proper email when commenting so I can contact the winners. Winners will have 24 hours to reply to my email before it is given to the next finisher.
Pro Tour Fantasy Golf offers quite a variety of contests. For instance, they have a One & Done League that starts at the Masters and ends in November. They offer a FedEx Cup League that runs during the FedEx Cup Playoffs and many more. Check out all of the contests on their league signup page.
March 19, 2014
March Madness – Fantasy Sports Edition
It’s that time of year again. March Madness. Get out your pencil sharpeners, a pad of paper, and listen up. It’s time to take some notes. A few years ago I created a model that I intended to use for daily fantasy college basketball. It incorporated overall team strength based on how many fantasy points their entire team scored and how many fantasy points they allowed to the opposing team (per possession). Over the last year I have tinkered with it, and it has become pretty useful in predicting games.
Last year I showcased the Top 10 teams here on Future of Fantasy and it did alright. Three of the Final Four were inside the Top 10 (Louisville #1, Syracuse #9, and Wichita State #10). Michigan was a little surprising, but that’s why it’s called March Madness. This year, I’m going to give you the predictions to every game in the entire tournament. Here we go:
Region Winner: Florida Gators
Potential Key Upset: Pittsburgh over Florida. Florida has a tough road with three of their game predicted to be one possession games.
Region Winner: Florida Gators
Potential Key Upset: Harvard over Cincy
As you see the model doesn’t love my team, the Iowa State Cyclones. It nearly has them losing to NC Central. It’s because they aren’t really that efficient. They get a lot of points from three-pointers which can be the kiss of death for high seeds come tourney time. As much as I want to believe in the Cyclones, they will have to overcome some poor shooting games or stay hot for the entire tournament.
Region Winner: Louisville Cardinals
Potential Key Upset: The entire bottom side of this region. Iowa or Tennessee could both make a deep run. Duke could lose to either. Duke could lose to Mercer even. Not likely since it’s in Raleigh. Michigan could lose early on to Wofford or Texas or they could make it to the Elite Eight. A lot of variation at the bottom of this bracket.
Region Winner: Arizona Wildcats
Potential Key Upset: NDSU over Oklahoma. Baylor over Creighton and potentially over Wisconsin as well. Wisconsin relies a lot on the three ball so they could lose to anyone or they soar straight into the Elite Eight.
As always, predictions must come with a disclaimer. These are just a guide to help you with the obvious picks. There will always be matchup problems, injuries issues, coaching, etc. that will outcome the tournament. These predictions should start you on the right path.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview
It’s that time of year again when 120 of the best golfers in the world gather in Orlando, Florida to reminisce on good times and drink iced tea-lemonades with the great Arnold Palmer himself. After drinking a few Arnold Palmers, these golfers will hit the links at Bay Hill and a full-fledged PGA tournament breaks out.
There is one notable exception this year as Tiger Woods will not be in the field due to his aching back. Tiger Woods had won here four times in the past six years and was the early favorite this week. I don’t think the field will miss his presence. Jason Day and Charl Schwartzel have also withdrawn due to a write injury and expecting child, respectively.
That takes quite a bit of firepower away from the field but six of the top 15 ranked golfers in the world will still be teeing it up this week. That doesn’t even include Patrick Reed, who is clearly a Top 5 golfer in the world, as well. The competition will still be fierce as this small field embarks on Bay Hill. Bay Hill is a lengthy Par 72 golf course, measuring in at 7,419 yards on the scorecard. Length is nice to have but isn’t necessary as many golfers have taken the shorter and more accurate approach and done just fine.
Correlated Stats
Just like last week, Par 5 Scoring will be key again this week. This has become even more evident since the course changes in 2010 when Bay Hill became a Par 72 rather than a Par 70 and nearly 200 yards were added to the overall course length. The API winners since 2010 have played the Par 5s at -10, -12, -12, and -14. This is where you make the dough.
Par 5s will be the key to scoring this week but managing the Par 4s will be just as important, if not more so. So, I also suggest taking a look at Par 4 Scoring this week. A good majority of the field is going to play the Par 4s over par this week. If you can be one of those golfers that capitalizes on the Par 4s by playing them even par or better, you have a great shot at a Top 25 this week.
Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners
PLAYERS Championship – Tiger Woods, Matt Kuchar, K.J. Choi
Pebble Beach Pro Am – Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker, Phil Mickelson
Crowne Plaza - Boo Weekley, Zach Johnson, David Toms
The Memorial – Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker
WGC Bridgestone – Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott
Players to Watch
Justin Rose: Came out and said he was fit last week and it showed. I would say his chances of W/D are still slightly higher than the rest of the field, but at this point he is pretty safe to plug back into your lineups.
Bubba Watson: Everything is clicking for Bubba in 2014. All the signs point to another good week for Bubba. My only concern is regression on the putting greens. Bubba is not this good of putter. He is currently ranked 29th on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting (+.473 strokes per round). However, he hasn’t finished inside the Top 100 in this category since 2009, and even then he was ranked 85th (+.071). Like most weeks, Bubba is a great boom or bust option. He has missed the cut 3 of the 8 times he’s played Bay Hill but has Top 25s in each of the past three years. Will Bubba be looking ahead to the Masters or will he be fully focused this week?
Rickie Fowler: Currently +0.16 strokes above the field average in 2014. However, he is losing 1.28 strokes on the green per round. That means his tee-to-green game is beating the field by 1.44 strokes. That puts him in the Top 10 tee-to-green. If he manages to have even a mediocre putting week, he will compete this weekend. A say a big week is in store for Mr. Fowler.
Ian Poulter:
Has 8 of 12 rounds under par since the course changes in 2010. That has resulted in three Top 25 finishes. Mr. Poulter has been ho-hum thus far in 2014, but here are some words of twitter encouragement from Ian himself.
Really looking forward to the @APinv next week at Bayhill. I think my game is about to turn the corner. No pain no gain sometimes.
— Ian Poulter (@IanJamesPoulter) March 13, 2014
Kevin Na: With all the advanced statistics the PGA Tour tracks, I’m surprised they don’t have a Pace of Play stat. It would be a simple way to determine if Kevin Na is actually speeding up his pace of play. It would also be nice to know, so I could avoid any golfers paired with slow players. Pace of Play aside, Kevin Na has safely returned from the injury that derailed most of his 2013 season. He has four Top 10s already this year in 10 tournaments. Then take a look at 2009 and we see that Kevin Na finished T-8th at the Transistions (Valspar) and followed it up with a T-11th at the API. I’m expecting something very similar, with another Top 15 in the cards this week.
Chris Stroud: I love Stroud this week. He’s finished Top 15 or better in five of his last nine tournaments in Florida. He is 6th in field in Strokes Gained – Tee to Green and has six rounds of Par or Better in his last eight Bay Hill rounds. Check out the book, “Every Shot Counts” by Mark Broadie for more information on the Strokes Gained – Tee to Green. I highly recommend it. More importantly, I highly recommend Chris Stroud this week.
Jason Kokrak: Coat Rack is 6-for-10 in Top 25s this season with only three missed cuts. I hate to say it, but Kokrak has become reliable. He does it all with his length off the tee, and this course should not restrict his length. He has a winning pedigree as he’s won six professional tournaments on lesser tours on his way to the PGA. It’s really just a matter of time before he puts together four good rounds and wins on the PGA Tour.
Patrick Reed: Patrick Reed was the big story in golf last week after proclaiming to be a Top 5 golfer in the world. You can’t argue with his success but when he spouts off his junior golf achievements and says no one else can really match that, that is when I stop listening. The increased media attention this week certainly won’t help his game. I’m not high on Reed this week.
Graeme McDowell: It’s been relatively quiet season for G-Mac. By quiet, I mean four Top 10s in five starts. Got to love GMac this week given this is a ball strikers course and it is in Florida, where G-Mac usually excels. Another Top 10 might be in the cards.
My Top 25 for the 2014 Arnold Palmer Invitational
1. Bubba Watson
2. Justin Rose
3. Graeme McDowell
4. Adam Scott
5. Kevin Na
6. Hunter Mahan
7. Zach Johnson
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Chris Stroud
10. Keegan Bradley
11. Henrik Stenson
12. Ian Poulter
13. Will MacKenzie
14. Charles Howell III
15. Russell Knox
16. Ryan Moore
17. Gary Woodland
18. Harris English
19. Lee Westwood
20. K.J. Choi
21. Jason Kokrak
22. Jamie Donaldson
23. Patrick Reed
24. George McNeill
25. Chris Kirk
FEATURED CONTEST: DraftKings $109 Arnold Palmer Contest to win $2,500
Fantasy Golf Contests
GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.
GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.
DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.
Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out.
DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.
GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.
Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.
DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.
FanThrowdown: FanThrowdown is another Daily Fantasy Sports site. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from 25 cents to $109. They even offer a weekly freeroll if you want to try it out.
March 18, 2014
Arnold Palmer Invitational – DraftKings Edition
Copperhead got us back on track after a terrible stop at Doral. This week we stay in Florida as we head to Bay Hill for another winning week. Bay Hill is also known as Tiger Hill. Tiger Woods won here back in 2000 and has proceeded to win seven more times following that. Winning eight times in thirteen attempts… not bad.
If you need some numbers to set your expectations for DraftKings points this week, here they are. In 2010, the course was changed from a Par 70 to a Par 72, so I only included the last four years. The last four winners of the API have scored at least 107 DraftKings points, with an average of 113 DraftKings Points.
You can see the average amount of DraftKings points based on finishing position over the past four Invitationals, located in the chart to the right. Like always, getting six guys who make the cut will be of utmost importance. Two Top 20 finishes will net you 138 DraftKings points, on average. Picking the winner will almost get you that by itself. However, if picking the winner means you are also forced to pick someone much more likely to miss the cut, it’s just not worth it. The average score for a golfer that misses the cut here is 22 DraftKings points. That is a quick way to ruin a good lineup.
The last four winners here all played the Par 3s over par, played the Par 4s at par or better, and played the Par 5s at 10-under or better. Just like last week, Par 5 Scoring will be very important. Let’s take a look at some possible lineup angles on DraftKings. Check back for the full tournament preview tomorrow.
A Horse of Course
Retief Goosen ($6,900): 27th-4th-36th-14th-18th
Sean O’Hair ($6,000): 40th-29th-74th-21st-2nd
Kevin Na ($9,000): 4th-30th-2nd-11th-91st
Hunter Mahan ($9,300): 21st-42nd-38th-25th-22nd
Rickie Fowler ($8,600): 3rd-30th-50th
These guys are all horses for the course. Numbers listed are their last five results at Bay Hill. This leaves you with $10,200 for your sixth golfer. Kind of an odd salary this week because there are no golfers between $9,700 and $10,300. Might be a good idea to downgrade Mahan and try to fit Tiger Bubba or Rose into this lineup.
Form Fitting
Chesson Hadley ($7,500): 14th-1st-24th-78th-10th
George McNeill ($8,400): 7th-19th-12th-6th-52nd
David Hearn ($7,200): 8th-24th-6th-90th
Will Mackenzie ($8,700): 4th-6th-52nd-13th
Kevin Na ($9,000): 2nd-78th-4th
These golfers are swinging a hot club. Listed are their results since Pebble Beach. $9,200 salary remaining for the 6th golfer which could leave you with someone like Pat Perez, GMac, Horschel, Knox, or Fowler. Not bad.
Attack the Par 5s
John Senden ($8,200): 3rd in Par 5 Scoring.
Robert Garrigus ($8,200): 6th in Par 5 Scoring.
Martin Laird ($8,200): 7th in Par 5 Scoring.
Chris Kirk ($8,100): 9th in Par 5 Scoring.
Aaron Baddeley ($7,200): 12th in Par 5 Scoring.
This team is made up of the leaders in Par 5 Scoring thus far in 2014. Par 5 Scoring was highly correlated to success last week at the Valspar, and I expect it to be highly correlated again this week. I don’t really trust the lineup above, but there is a lot of potential this week if you experiment with this idea of Par 5 Scoring leaders.
Tee 2 Green
Boo Weekley ($8,200)
Chris Stroud ($7,900)
Ryan Moore ($8,300)
Jason Kokrak ($7,900)
Rickie Fowler ($8,600)
These golfers don’t rely on the putting green to gain their strokes. I think that will be key this week as ball strikers should excel on this course.
Handpicked Value Plays
Sean O’Hair ($6,000): Much like Goosen last week, the form is lacking but the course history is strong. Not counting his initial trip here when he W/D after Round One, O’Hair is 6-for-7 here at Bay Hill with Top 30 finishes in five of the seven instances. He hasn’t won here but found himself on the podium in back-to-back years (2008 and 2009). A bit of a risk due to form but the price is right.
J.J. Henry ($6,300): Henry is trending the wrong way with missed cuts in five of his last six events. However, he is a great ball striker and this is a ball strikers course. Henry has averaged 14.5 Par Breakers in his last two trips to Bay Hill. That is the same amount of Par Breakers as Bubba Watson has averaged here since 2010. Really risky due to his plethora of missed cuts recently but this course should help him right the ship.
Retief Goosen ($6,900): I tipped Goosen last week and said he may awake from slumber because he was finally playing a course he liked. He had a phenomenal Saturday at Copperhead but gave it all back on Sunday. This is another course where he has had great success. He has made his last seven cuts here and that includes two Top 5s in that stretch. I don’t love him, but he is a decent salary saver at less than $7,000 on DraftKings.
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March 12, 2014
Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview
The Valspar Championship is next on the docket as the PGA Tour stays in Florida. Another week in Florida means more Bermuda greens and more water hazards. It also means another challenging week of golf is ahead. The winning score here has been 10-under or harder in four of the past seven years. You may also know this tournament as the Tampa Bay Championship or the Transitions Championship.
The course is Copperhead, located at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. Just 1,866 miles southeast of Denver. Tampa Bay is even closer, just a mere 45 minutes drive away. Copperhead plays to a Par 71, while playing at 7,340 yards. Pretty average length-wise.
The strange thing about Copperhead is the plethora of Par 3s. There are five Par 3s and four Par 5s. I don’t know where you come from, but that is unusual to me. You can’t rely on Par 3s to be birdie holes, which puts a greater emphasis on the Par 5 and Par 4 scoring.
Correlated Stats
The most important stat this week for me is Par 5 Scoring. As I already mentioned, there are five Par 3s which means you have to make each and every Par 5 count if you want to score. The data backs it up, as well. Each of the past five winners have played the Par 5s at 7-under or better on their way to victory. Six of the past seven winners were inside the Top 50 in Par 5 Scoring during the season they won here at Copperhead.
Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners
AT&T National – Bill Haas, Tiger Woods, Nick Watney
Hyundai ToC – Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Steve Stricker
WGC Cadillac - Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose
WGC Bridgestone – Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott
RBC Heritage – Graeme McDowell, Carl Pettersson, Brandt Snedeker
Players to Watch
Luke Donald: No need to get cute and go away from Donald. He’s played the Par 5s at 15-under par total during his last three visits to Copperhead. Those three visits resulted in three Top 10s, including a victory in 2012.
Harris English: Hottest golfer in the world? If Patrick Reed is a Top 5 golfer then Harris English might be categorized as a Top 10 golfer in the world. He doesn’t have multiple victories this season but has already racked up five Top 10 finishes with his worst finish being a 40th place back at the Shriners.
Webb Simpson: Currently ranked 2nd in Par 5 Scoring. His median finish in seven 2014 starts in 10th place. His last two starts are just blips on the radar, and he should get back to the podium this week.
Jordan Spieth: Fantasy golfers have a short memory, and Spieth may already be out of the heads of a lot of gamers. Don’t forget he was in position to win multiple tournaments already this year, it’s just a matter of finishing. If Spieth can ease into it this week, maybe he can come off the pace for a victory instead of trying to win wire-to-wire.
Graham DeLaet: Another golfer that might not be on the short list for a lot of gamers. GDL has back-to-back finishes outside the Top 10 and suddenly nobody is talking about him? He is still poised for a breakthrough victory at some point this season.
Matt Kuchar: Kuchar teed it up at the WGC Cadillac last week and was right in the thick of things until he slowly faded over the weekend. You’re paying for consistency when you select Matt Kuchar, don’t forget that.
Sang-Moon Bae: Consistency isn’t his thing but he does putt the lights out on a pretty consistent basis. He gained 2.5 strokes putting on the field here in 2012 on his way to a 2nd place finish. I think if his putter is timid then he’ll flirt with the cut line but he will be in contention if his has one of his monster putting weeks.
Jonathan Byrd: I mentioned him yesterday as one of my handpicked sleepers on DraftKings. Byrd has six Top 20 finishes at Copperhead in ten attempts. He’s currently ranked 22nd in Par 5 Scoring for the 2014 season and has played the Copperhead Course Par 5s at 24-under par over his last four visits. Don’t grab a pillow because now is not the time to sleep on Byrd.
Gary Woodland: Woodland won here back in 2011, which was way because he got his swing “figured out.” Woodland is extremely long off the tee so he must dominate these Par 5s, right? Not quite. Woodland has played the Par 5s at an average of 3-under par, the Par 4s at an average of 2-under par, and the Par 3s at an average of 1-under par. Most golfers in this field will play the Par 3s and 4s over par, so that is actually where Woodland will be making up ground this week on his way to a Top 25.
Russell Knox: Knox has finished 32nd or better in eight of the ten tournaments he’s entered in 2014. Quite impressive. He’s also coming off a Playoff loss at the Honda Classic, so you know he is close. Speaking of close, he went to college just four hours away at Jacksonville University. Everything is pointing to another solid finish for the Scotsman.
Bryce Molder: Has made 16 stroke play cuts in a row, including back-to-back Top 10s at Pebble Beach and the Northern Trust Open. Follow the form.
Cameron Tringale: Speaking of form, Tringale is another golfer who is red hot. His last four tournaments have resulted in 41st, 12th, 13th, and 12th place finishes. He had a closing round 66 here last year on his way to a 3rd place finish. Tringale is another youngster looking for his first PGA Tour victory.
Justin Leonard: A scoring average of 69.7 over his last four Valspar tournaments. The king of grinding out pars, he has averaged 50.5 pars per tournament here since 2009. 2nd only to Luke Donald. Those stats have resulted in four straight Top 30 Valspar finishes but this is still Justin Leonard we are talking about. He is a safe play, but his upside is long gone at this point in his career.
Daniel Summerhays: My fiancée told me at the beginning of the year that she liked Daniel Summerhays this year. Her woman’s intuition is often right on these sort of things. Last year she picked Patrick Reed to win at Wyndham whenever nobody else did. Summerhays is 43rd in Par 5 Scoring this year and was 23rd last year. His history here is not good, but don’t be surprised if he takes full advantage of the Par 5s this week and jumps into contention.
Retief Goosen: His form is nowhere to be found this year but he is certainly a horse for the course. Goosen has collected two wins here at Copperhead in ten attempts. He also has four other finishes inside the Top 40 here at Copperhead. Unfortunately, he has only one Top 40 finish this year in nine attempts. If he’s going to find his form, this would be the week he does.
My Top 25 for the 2014 Honda Classic
1. Luke Donald
2. Webb Simpson
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Jason Dufner
5. Jordan Spieth
6. Harris English
7. Gary Woodland
8. Jim Furyk
9. Bill Haas
10. Graham Delaet
11. Justin Rose
12. Russell Knox
13. Cameron Tringale
14. K.J. Choi
15. Charley Hoffman
16. Will MacKenzie
17. Charles Howell III
18. Peter Hanson
19. Bryce Molder
20. John Senden
21. Matteo Manassero
22. Sang-Moon Bae
23. Daniel Summerhays
24. Ernie Els
25. Pat Perez
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Fantasy Golf Contests
GolfLogix Fantasy Golf: Powered by the GolfRadar platform, this is an awesome free contest to enter. You have 100 coins to pick up to 10 golfers. You get more bonus points if your lower priced golfers do well. Prizes vary week by week.
GolfWeek Fantasy Golf: Also powered by the GolfRadar Platform. Same rules as the GolfLogix contest above. Enter this contest as well for another chance to win.
DraftKings: The new kid on the block. Taking fantasy golf to the next level with massive contests with huge prize pools. Must check them out for sure.
Fantasy Feud: The PGA Feud of Champions is live, and has $15,000 up for grabs. You must earn your seat into this tournament throughout the year. There are 40 seats up for grabs. Then there will be a four week tournament to decide who goes home with the $2,000 first place prize. Check it out for sure.
DraftStreet: Draftstreet is one of the largest Daily Fantasy Sports sites, and offers the tightest salaries among the industry. If you want a true challenge, DraftStreet is a great site for you.
GolfZing: Free to enter, pick 7 players each week and earn points for every player that makes the cut. Prizes are awarded to the top 3 finishers each week, along with 4 Quarterly Prizes and 1 Tour Champion. Plus earn 100 ZINGPOINTS! every time you play! Over $50,000 in prizes will be given away over the course of the season.
Pro Tour Fantasy Golf: A premium fantasy golf game consisting of 3 different formats including One & Done and Pick 3 each week. Contests start throughout the season lasting 24 to 32 weeks. Most league sizes limited to 100-125 teams with 1:5 chance of winning a cash prize.
DraftDay Fantasy Golf: DraftDay is another Daily Fantasy Sports site, and one of the few that actually offer PGA contests. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from $1 to $219.
FanThrowdown: FanThrowdown is another Daily Fantasy Sports site. It is salary-cap format. Buy-in ranges from 25 cents to $109. They even offer a weekly freeroll if you want to try it out.
March 11, 2014
Valspar Championship – DraftKings Edition
How about that new Blue Monster, guys? Many golf analysts suspected that the course redesign would make the course tougher, but nobody expected it to be U.S. Open tough! Before the tournament, Sergio Garcia said he expected the winning score to be around 15-under par. Luke Donald also mentioned that he thought the scores would be similar to years past. Boy, were they wrong. Donald Trump took no pity on the players as he threw out brutal pin positions and the added water hazards made water more hazardous than ever. The wind certainly didn’t help, either.
The course redesign didn’t help my fantasy golf game, either. I had the worst week that I can remember. I faded Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, and Bubba Watson all for different reasons, but all three of them had no troubles with the new Blue Monster at Doral. These weeks will happen from time to time, but it’s important that you put them behind you and bounce back.
This week I am looking to bounce back at the Valspar Championship. The course is Copperhead which is located in Palm Harbor, Florida. It is a Par 71 course that stretches to 7,340 yards. Not a short course but certainly not long by today’s standards. Stay tuned for the full tournament preview tomorrow but now let’s take a look at DraftKings and see if we can find some decent plays this week:
Team Florida
Spencer Levin ($6,200): 88th-15th-113th-21st-12th-6th-44th-14th
Brian Stuard ($8,600): 24th-98th-16th-43rd-29th
Peter Hanson ($7,000): 120th-72nd-8th-13th-15th-55th-4th-19th-81st-15th
Freddie Jacobson ($7,400): 12th-48th-16th-25th-115th-53rd-68th-16th-64th-9th
Luke Donald ($10,000): 25th-8th-19th-4th-43rd-6th-1st-6th-4th-6th
All these golfers love playing in Florida. The numbers listed are their last ten finishes when golfing in Florida. This leaves you with $10,800 to spend on anyone you want.
In Form We Trust
Chesson Hadley ($7,700): 1st-24th-78th-10th
David Lingmerth ($7,900): 8th-29th-42nd
Bryce Molder ($8,500): 6th-10th-29th
Daniel Summerhays ($8,400): 12th-29th-19th-78th
George McNeill ($8,700): 19th-12th-6th-52nd-112th
These golfers are swinging a hot club. Ride em’ while they’re hot and don’t look back. The numbers listed are their finishes in the last six weeks. Salary remaining is $8,800 for the 6th and final golfer.
Is That All You Got?
Bo Van Pelt ($7,800): 88th-44th-21st-6th-71st-20th-100th-2nd-59th-13th-17th-8th
Daniel Summerhays ($8,400): 12th-43rd-98th-63rd-58th-17th-4th-29th
Blake Adams ($6,700): 55th-49th-21st-19th-29th-77th
Pat Perez ($8,900): 2nd-32nd-18th-7th-29th-25th-13th
Jim Furyk ($8,900): 62nd-2nd-97th-137th-42nd-25th-7th-33rd-34th-4th-13th-11th-11th
These golfers take pride in grinding out difficult courses. The finishes listed are their finishes on difficult courses since the beginning of 2012. Salary Remaining equals $9,300, spend it wisely.
Handpicked Value Plays
John Senden ($7,400): Senden appears to have got his groove back this year. He’s made seven of nine cuts in 2014 including two Top 25s. His Valspar history is pretty solid, as well. Five of his last seven Valspar finishes have been Top 40s including two runner-up finishes in 2007 and 2008.
Jonathan Byrd ($6,500): Byrd has missed 5 of his last 10 cuts so don’t expect this to be a guarantee but the value is definitely there. Byrd is a perfect 10-for-10 in cuts made here at the Valspar. That includes three Top 10s. He’s coming off a 12th place finish in Puerto Rico, so that is promising.
Branden Grace ($6,900): Top 20s in four of his last six international tournaments. Has only missed two of his last 14 cuts, which is solid for a golfer that will cost you less than $7,000 on DraftKings.
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