Josh Culp's Blog, page 57

The Futility of It All: Reflection on Sure Things

On the Friday of nearly all fantasy football leagues’ championship weekend, the editor of this respective blog asked me to pick one must-play player for the week: that must-play was going to be LeSean McCoy. However, I wrote this crossing the state of Utah on the I-70 and observed out the window the magnificent red and yellow tones of our western landscape covered in snow. I could not focus on football; the NBA’s Jerry Sloan was on my mind.

I imagined Sloan wandering through the Utah wilderness that he called home for nearly two decades searching for that illusive title. He looked sad and defeated, like a bloated, old and decrepit dying calf. He was finally stalked by a wolfpack of iconic shooting guards who looked vaguely like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. They dragged him to their den and tore him to a bloody pulp.

Poor Sloan.

Not to minimize his plight, but my fantasy football season was just like his struggle to win an NBA title.

We both tried really hard.

Listen: I swung a block-buster trade to acquire Adrian Peterson in the middle of the season. One of the players I gave up was only a marijuana-loving wide receiver who played for the Cleveland Browns. Sounded like a positive urine test away from working at my favorite used-book store.

Plus, he played for the Cleveland Browns.

It turned out that marijuana-loving Cleveland Brown decided to be really good at football in the second half of the season.

The trade then went from bad to worse when I couldn’t even use Adrian Peterson in the semifinals because of a sprained foot.

I thought you were my personal Purple Jesus, AP. What happened?

After learning that Peterson was designated as “Questionable” for the semifinal game, I picked up Toby Gerhardt. When Gerhardt went down with a pulled hammy, there was no way I was picking up the third-stringer for Minnesota.

Instead, I decided to put the thinking cap on, and do some research.

What’s that football writer Robert Mays of Grantland? The Chicago Bears defense is really bad at defending the rush? And what is that respective fantasy football websites? Cleveland Browns runningback Willis McGahee is not going to play?

The logic syllogism went something like this: The Bears suck at defending the run; The Browns are playing the Bears; Therefore, whoever should receive the lion’s share of carries for the Browns will have a great game. That guy was supposed to be Chris Ogbonnaya.

What the logic syllogism failed to account for is that everyone who plays running back for the Browns is awful. Ogbonnaya scored a total of three points, all of which came from reception yards as it turned out he only received five rushing attempts.

That third-string Minnesota guy, Matt Asiata, ended up scoring three touchdowns.

I lost my semi-final game by 6.5 points, a spread that easily would have been covered if I just turned off the thinking cap and plugged in Asiata.

The hot take this week though was McCoy. He had a great game playing those same Chicago Bears: 133 yards and two touchdowns, plus 29 reception yards. He could have won me a championship.

But it doesn’t matter when you’re playing for third place, does it Jerry Sloan?

Start Em’ & Sit Em’: Week 16

It’s Championship week everyone! Well, if you are in a league that rightfully avoids week 17 Championships then you are in Championship week. This is what all of the draft prep, all of the in season-reading, all of the lineup tinkering has been for. Congratulations on making it this far!

START EM’

Jay Cutler: He came back last week to play well against a tough Browns defense and gets a Philadelphia secondary that is a little banged up and has been generous to opposing QBs. Not to mention he has an excellent supporting cast.

Kirk Cousins: Shanahan is determined to show that he made the right choice in benching RGIII and will dial up the pass a lot against the worst defense against QBs in the league. If you have him, enjoy the production.

Bobby Rainey: Rainey seems to either go off or post a dud. If you look closer though his duds have been against great run defenses. Any time he has faced a sub-par run defense he shreds them. St. Louis definitely counts in the sub-par category.

Alfred Morris: Rarely do you have a defense dead last against the pass and against the run. Dallas is that rare defense. Play the Butler.

Dennis Johnson: Johnson has looked decent in his brief time taking Ben Tate’s scraps. With Tate now on IR, Johnson should have most of the work to himself. It may be a bit of a risky play, but if you have some issues with injuries at RB he’d be a decent fill-in option.

Mike Wallace: Wallace has been very inconsistent this season, but he is coming off a good performance in week 15 and has a good match-up to exploit.

Hakeem Nicks: Nicks hasn’t just been inconsistent this season, he’s been a bust for where he was probably drafted. But with Victor Cruz out of the picture he will be counted on to pick up his game.

Santana Moss: Moss enjoyed a great week 15 with Cousins at the helm after a very quiet season up to that point. We’ve chronicled Dallas’ defensive struggles plenty already.

Delanie Walker: Walker has come alive once again and has a great matchup this week if you had someone like Gronkowski or Cameron (or both like one of my teams!) running your TE show.

Dennis Pitta: Slow week last week, but he gets a great chance to make up for it this week.

Browns D/ST: The Jets have been turnover prone. Even without Haden I think the Browns D will be worth a start.

SIT EM’

Matt Ryan: Ryan has struggled a bit on the road this season. That makes his matchup against a great 49ers D that much less attractive.

Matt Cassell: If you need a fill-in, Cassell should not be your choice. I wouldn’t expect a repeat from week 15.

Shane Vereen: Miami gave Baltimore, already the stingiest defense against RBs, the blueprint on how to take away Vereen. I think Baltimore can replicate their success.

Adrian Peterson/Toby Gerhart: I wouldn’t play either of them coming off injuries and facing a tough matchup in Cincinnati. If they both play, I think they could split carries and that doesn’t help either.

Steven Jackson: Now that he has finally started performing up to pre-season expectations and may be earning his owners trust back, he gets San Fran’s 5th ranked defense against RBs.

Larry Fitzgerald: Fitzgerald is banged up and may not play. Carson Palmer is banged up and may not play. Not a good matchup either.

Harry Douglas: See Ryan, Matt. I’m not expecting much from the Falcons offense if you hadn’t gathered that yet.

Steve Smith: New Orleans isn’t what it was on defense last year and Smith hasn’t really had man big games this year. There are better options.

Coby Fleener: Not much to like about his matchup and he has struggled the last three weeks combining for a meager 8-81-0 line.

Martellus Bennett: Philly may be generous to WRs, but they defend TEs very well.

Carolina D/ST: There has been some talk of benching Brees this week, but he handled them fine last time around and should this time as well.

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Join Now and take a hard look at these value plays:

Kirk Cousins ($9,000): Cousins is half the price of quarterbacks like Matt Stafford and Nick Foles but could easily match their output this week. Cousins is playing at home against the Cowboys, the team allowing the most fantasy points to opposing Quarterbacks. He is also trying to prove his worth and earn himself a salary ala Matt Flynn. Juicy, juicy.

Gio Bernard ($11,565): The Bengals really need to win this game and the Vikings won’t give much resistant. There are only five other teams that give up more fantasy points per game to runningbacks. If the wind is 15+ mph like the forecast suggests, the Bengals will have to give Gio a heavy workload.

Andre Holmes ($5,569): The Raiders have nothing left to play for except pride. Instead they are finding out about their future. Holmes has become a major part of this Raider offense over the past three seasons. Holmes has 25 targets over the past three weeks and has caught a pass of 25+ yards in each of those matches. The Chargers have one of the worst pass defenses, so look for the Raiders to toss the ball around a lot.

Michael Crabtree ($6,519): Crabtree is working his way back to WR1 status but is still priced like a WR3. The 49ers are playing their last game at Candlestick and are playing on Monday night. Look for the 49ers to post big numbers and Crabtree to have another solid game.

Zach Miller ($5,855): The Cardinals are the worst team against the Tight End. They allow touchdowns, often multiple touchdowns, seemingly every week. Zach Miller is high-risk, high-reward but well worth it for this pricetag.

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There are plenty of value plays this week. I listed a few of them that I like but who do you think are the must-plays this week?

Start Em’ & Sit Em: Week 15

It’s week 15 and everyone pretty much should be in the playoffs at this point. If you are reading this, congratulations are in order! Week 14 Dealt some of us some serious blows to our playoff hopes, most notably injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Adrian Peterson. Let’s see if we can help you to sift through the decisions you need to make.

START EM’

Foles should have the Eagles offense flying once again this week.

Nick Foles: He won’t be throwing in a blizzard for a 2nd straight week with the dome shielding him in Minnesota this week. We all knew he’d eventually throw an INT, but don’t let that scare you away.

Kirk Cousins: Welcome to a starting job Mr. Cousins, here’s a cake matchup for you! Atlanta can be had through the air.

Chris Ogbonnaya: With Willis McGahee likely out, Ogbannaya should get the bulk of the running work. He’s been involved in the passing game all year and is averaging 5+ yards per carry on just over 40 carries. The matchup is pretty good too.

Eddie Lacey or James Starks: If Lacy suits up, he’s the play. If he doesn’t Starks will make a lot of owners happy. Dallas, this week’s opponent, gives up the most points to opposing RBs.

Pierre Thomas: Darren Sproles has seen his playing time dwindle after Thomas’ run of solid play. St. Louis ranks in the bottom 5 in points given up to RBs.

Roddy White: I’m sticking with the White train as he gets another decent matchup against Washington in what could be a high scoring game.

Greg Jennings: With AP likely out, and the possibility of Toby Gerhart also out I think the Vikings will have to throw to stay in the game leaving plenty of garbage time yardage for Jennings.

Marlon Brown: If you need help in your flex spot, Brown could offer a decent choice this week indoors in Detroit. Brown has been a bit hot or cold this season so there is some risk here, but he was definitely hot last week.

Andrew Quarless: The pickings are slim outside of the top 10 TEs this week so if you don’t have one you have to look deep. He did very well last week and has a good matchup at least.

Scott Chandler: Like I said, it’s a rough week for TEs.

Colts D/ST: Houston is a mess right, and Indy isn’t that bad a defense to begin with.

SIT EM’

Carson Palmer: His play has been much better lately than it was at the beginning of the season but he gets the Titans this week and is dealing with some arm issues to boot.

Andy Dalton: Pittsburgh gave Dalton a little trouble back in week 2, and they’re much better now than they were then.

If you roll with him, hopefully this won't be a scene you witness Monday night.

Reggie Bush: It’s gonna be tough to sit him if he plays, but Baltimore has remained the toughest defense against RBs and there’s the chance of re-injuring that calf. I might have to start him in a couple league, but if you have any decent options you may want to give them a long look.

Chris Johnson: Baltimore may be the toughest defense on RBs, but Arizona is #2. Guess who the Titans play?

DeAngelo Williams: Williams has the gig to himself again after impressing in the role earlier this season, but he should find the sledding tough against the Jets defense.

Larry Fitzgerald: See Palmer, Carson above.

Vincent Jackson: You get the idea here if you’ve read me in the past. Jackson struggles for the most part against very good secondaries. He gets San Francisco this week.

Victor Cruz: Seattle might make life tough for Cruz even though they’re in New York.

Jared Cook: Contrary to last week, the disappointing TE does not have a tasty matchup to warrant the play here.

Heath Miller: Miller has worked his way back into consideration since returning from injury, but this would be a tough week to play him against Cincinnati’s defense.

Browns D/ST: Cleveland’s 4th ranked defense (NFL) has seen rough sledding the past few weeks and Chicago has been clicking.

Draftstreet NBA Qualifier Plays – December 11th

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Suggested Plays

Ricky Rubio ($13,904) – Rubio hasn’t surpassed 40 DraftStreet Points since November 13th but he just might do that tonight. Rubio doesn’t shoot a high percentage but doesn’t shoot a lot either, so it’s unlikely that he will kill you with a lot missed shots. Rubio should thrive in a fast paced game against the 76ers tonight. Triple Double alert, anyone?

Derrick Williams ($8,877) – Rudy Gay should be in uniform tonight, but there is no reason to ignore Derrick Williams with this price tag. Williams can slide over to the 4 and play Power Forward against the Jazz who may be thin in the frontcourt once again. Williams is coming off a 42.25 DraftStreet Point performance. Even if he gets half that, he will nearly make value.

Mike Conley ($12,733) – Conley has scored less than 22 DraftStreet Points in each of the last three games, which might deter other managers away from picking him tonight. His opponent, Russell Westbrook doesn’t really like guarding players and also turns the ball over a lot. Expect Conley to gets at least two steals on his way to 30+ DraftStreet points tonight.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($10,192) – Aminu is getting a boatload of minutes since the Unibrow went down. Now with Tyreke sidelined, those minutes should be even more guaranteed. I expect Aminu to be highly owned at this price with the situation and matchup he is in. Don’t try to get cute and fade him tonight because you will get burned.

Jared Sullinger ($10,945) – Sullinger has been pretty steady since taking over the starting role. Tonight he faces the Clippers who allow the 2nd most points in the paint and 4th most rebounds. A double-double is the FLOOR for Sullinger tonight.

If you plug in these five suggested guys tonight, then fill out the rest of your roster as the news trickles in throughout the day, you should have great success as Borat would say. Good Luck!

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Three Must Plays Tonight

JORDAN BACHYNSKI ($14,226) – The big man for Arizona State has taken his game to a whole new level this year as he is averaging a Double-Double (13.8 points and 10.1 rebounds). That makes his floor incredibly high, making him a very safe play.

JERMAINE MARSHALL ($9,121) – Jahii Carson has sprained his ankle three times this week. He is going to suit up and play in this one but it wouldn’t be shocking at all if he can’t finish the game due to his ankle. That means Jermaine Marshall may see a slight usage increase. There is no reason Marshall shouldn’t reach 15 points tonight, and everything else is all gravy.

JULIUS RANDLE ($18,340) – No explanation needed here. Randle is the top freshman in the nation and he has double-doubles in 7 of his first 8 collegiate games. I expect Randle to show up big time in this primetime matchup against the Baylor Bears that should stay close throughout.

Put those three guys in your lineup and build around them. Finish in the Top 50 and you will find yourself with free money in your Draftstreet account. Sign Up Now.

Start Em’ & Sit Em’: Week 14

It’s go time people. It’s week 14 and either you have one final shot to make your league’s playoffs or this is round 1. Welcome to the show if you are among the owners in the latter category. Let’s get straight to it shall we?

START EM’

Alex Smith: Smith has quietly been a top 15 QB this year and gets a great match-up against Washington’s defense this week. He’s not in the Wilson, Vick, RG III category as a runner, but he’ll get you a few points that way as well.

Jay Cutler/Josh McCown: This is the Monday night game, so unless you have both QBs it could be a risky play. Cutler seems optomistic he can play this week, but he hasn’t been cleared yet. Whoever plays will be worth the start though. Jeffrey’s emergence gives this offense two elite WRs to go along with a great RB in Forte.

Lacy runs with a power that should suit him well this week.

Eddie Lacy: Lacey posted a dud last week, but should get back on track against Atlanta this week. They’re giving up an average of 162.5 yards and a TD per game to opposing RBs over their past 6 games.

Ray Rice: Rice’s season can’t even really be described as up and down. It’s been mostly down with a few big games sprinkled in. This may be one of those against Minnesota. I have Rice in a few weeks, and this is a week I will be using him.

Ben Tate: Tate and his owners get round two, a couple weeks after he bottomed out with a 7 carry 1 yard performance against the same Jacksonville team. I’d be surprised to see him do that the second time around.

Keenan Allen: After a rough stretch during weeks 9-10, Allen has returned to his #1 reciever ways the past two weeks. The Giants represent a tough matchup, but it’s one I think Allen can handle. They don’t really have a shutdown corner he has to worry about.

Roddy White: He’s back! It’s just in time for the playoff stretch too.

Demaryius Thomas: Even against the top secondary in the league as far as giving up points to opposing WRs, you have to start Thomas. Don’t get cute in the playoffs.

Jared Cook: Arizona is dead last against opposing TEs and routinely give up multiple TDs in a game to TEs.

Antonio Gates: Gates finds himself down on several projections this week but the fact is he’s a top 10 TE and doesn’t have a terrible matchup. You’re playing him.

Patriots D/ST: No one knows who will be playing QB for the Browns this week, but if it’s Brandon Weeden, Alex Tanney or Caleb Hanie the Pats will have a field day.

SIT EM’

Kaep could be spending some time on the turf this week.

Colin Kaepernick: Kaep struggled against Seattle mightily in game 1, but that was all the way back during week 2. They are missing some pieces now, but as they demonstrated last week that didn’t make much of a difference.

Robert Griffin III: Kansas City may have lost a couple pieces, but they still present a formidable opponent.

LeSean McCoy: You’re probably riding McCoy with how productive he’s been this season, but Detroit hasn’t allowed more than 38 yards in their last 4 games, and no more than 61 in their last 7. They also haven’t given up a TD to an opposing RB since week 4. Hold your expectations in check with McCoy this week.

Donald Brown: It feels weird to be writing about sitting Brown as the Colt’s feature back, but that seems to be where we’re at now. Cincinnati represents a tough matchup either way, so I would look elsewhere.

Rashad Jennings: He’s banged up and playing the top defense against RBs.

Eric Decker: This is the same guy who went for 1 catch for 5 yards the week before last week’s explosion. While I feel confident playing Thomas who consistently has given double digit performances regardless of matchup, I am hesitant with Decker veres the best secondary in the league against WRs.

Micheal Crabtree: I know you’ve been holding on to him all year, he’s finally playing and he looked decent last week. Stay away for one more week.

Jordan Reed: Reed may not even play, but even if he does he couldn’t get a worse matchup.

Brandon Myers: Myers has been a bit of a disappointment this year with a QB who is usually TE friendly.

Miami D/ST: The Steelers have their running and passing games going so I doubt Miami will stop both of them.

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$1,000 Freeroll Value Plays

Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,923) – Patterson has become way more involved in the Vikings offense over the past few weeks. The targets for Patty have been steadily increasing. 4-4-9-11-4 over the past five weeks. Patterson finally rewarded patient owners last week by scoring on a 33 yard TD run. Patterson will continue to get 5+ touches/targets per game which makes his $4,923 price tag a steal.

Roddy White ($6,431) – Roddy White got moved into ‘stand-up’ guy category for me earlier in the season when he apologized to fantasy owners and then told them not to play him if he was limited in practice. It seems like he genuinely cared. And now you should legitimately care about him. Last week was the first time all season he has eclipsed 4 receptions and he surpassed that in a big way. Roddy was targeted 14 times and caught 10 of those balls for 143 yards. If that’s not a sign that he is finally healthy, then I don’t know what is. Now he heads to Green Bay, who are in the bottom 5 pass defenses this year. Look for Roddy to easily pay off this cheap price tag.

Eli Manning ($13,683) – If you don’t want to pay for a top Quarterback then you might as well go with a super cheap QB with a high ceiling. Eli has repeatedly disappointed fantasy owners this year and it hasn’t mattered how easy of a schedule he’s had. Week 14 is no different, as the Chargers are one of the worst against the pass. Is it a trap? Is Eli really going to letdown fantasy owners yet again? Probably, but it’s definitely worth a shot at this price.

Lamar Miller ($7,913) – Lamar is finally getting the lion’s share of carries for Miami thanks to the Daniel Thomas injury. Lamar got 22 carries last week in the win against the Jets. In games where Miller has gotten 15 or more carries this year he is averaging 89 yards on the ground. With snow in the forecast in Pittsburgh, look for Miami to keep it on the ground, which should help Miller reach value in this one.

Donald Brown ($7,986) – Brown finally got named the starter last week, replacing the turd known as T-Rich. Brown has been producing like a starting runningback over the past four week (4 touchdowns) but he still isn’t priced like one. Now that the carries are guaranteed, start him with confidence.

Sprinkle some of these value plays into your lineup and you should be able to fit some of the studs needed to take down the top prize this week at Star Fantasy Leagues. Enter the $1,000 Week 14 Freeroll Now.

Start Em’ & Sit Em’: Week 13

Thanksgiving has always been my favorite holiday. Maybe it was predestined when I was born on Thanksgiving Day. Maybe it’s just the amazing combination of eating a lot of awesome food and watching great football. I just love everything that it has to offer. I also love the tradition of having the Lions and Cowboys play every year. I know they will be playing, and I don’t care if there are years where one or both of them may not be one of the best teams in the league. It’s thanksgiving, and I want the Lions game on at noon and the Cowboys game shortly to follow. Recently they have added a third game and how can more football be worse?

Last week was one of those cases where I didn’t have a horrible week with my advice, but a few big misses will stand out. Most notably, recommending a start for Ben Tate who put up a dud and a sit for Knowshon Moreno who promptly had the best night of his career. People remember those. I remember those. You can be spot on for most of your picks, but a couple can ruin it for you. It’s unfortunate, but that’s fantasy for you. I’ll take my lumps and press on. This week, in honor of Thanksgiving the layout will be a little different than usual. We all have been to family gatherings throughout the years and know mom or dad or Aunt Anne make a certain dish to perfection. This is the thing you will have some more of even when you feel like you might burst by eating one more bite. Therefore our “Starts” will be labeled 2nd Helpings. Then, there is that dish you know you just stay away from. Others may even like it, but you have no time for it with so many other choices to fill you r plate. “Pass on That” will be our Sits for the week. Let’s get started.

2ND HELPINGS

The sweet potato casserole is a personal favorite of mine, but you have to have pumpkin pie no matter how full you get,

Matt Flynn: At this point Rodgers will not be playing on Thursday. Flynn could be a risky play but I think they will have to throw a lot in what could be a shootout on the turf in Detriot. Flynn is back with the Pack, the only team he’s had any real success with.

Josh McCown: Along with Flynn, McCown is another fill-in who may be down to his last week as a usable player but he’s got an amazing matchup against the lowly Vikings. He’s done a lot more against tougher competition so i see him having a good game.

Andre Brown: Brown has been very useful since returning 3 weeks ago and a matchup against Washington should provide the perfect opportunity for him to keep it going. Expect 80+ yards and at least 1 TD.

Donald Brown: This seems like a risky play after last week’s showing, I’ll admit that. But, this week is a much easier macthup and Brown has been the only Colts RB to enjoy any sort of success recently and so he’s the play for me over Trent Richardson in a decent matchup.

Rashad Jennings: Even with the possibility of Darren McFadden’s return, Jennings has earned himself plenty of playing time in a +++ matchup.

Nate Burleson: Burleson has found a lot of success when helathy opposite of Megatron this year. Last week in his first week back from injury he had a 7-77-1 line. Similar numbers can be expected this week.

Percy Harvin: Week 13 could provide us with the vision we all had when Harvin joined the Seahawks. He should be without any shackles this week after having one week to warm up and a bye week to further rest up. He is a game-breaking talent and I’m rolling with him.

Micheal Floyd: Floyd has burst onto the scene the last few weeks combining for a 13-297-1 line. This week he gets the Eagles secondary which is dead last against opposing WRs. 1+1=_…. You get the idea.

Charles Clay: After a dud week, Clay gets to rebound against a Jets defense that is very good, but struggles to contain good TEs. While many of his teammates may not be usable, Clay should provide owners with a solid line.

Coby Fleener: He continues to be ranked terribly low. This week some names projected ahead of him include Anthony Fasano, Jermaine Gresham and Scott Chandler. Fleener has had a big role in the offense though since Reggie Wayne’s injury and the Titans are in the bottom 3rd of the league against TEs.

Browns D/ST: The offense may not get anything going, but the defense should be solid for Cleveland going up against a woeful Jaguars offense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several sacks and a couple turnovers.

PASS ON THAT

Does anyone know what this is? If I can't identify it I'm passing....

Robert Griffin III: Early on RGIII was helping owners out with garbage time points but recently he hasn’t even generated much of that. It’s obvious that his knee injury is at the very least making him hesitant to run.

Mike Glennon: I’ve heard from several of my friends that they have started turning to Glennon with his recent performances. While I admit that he hasn’t hurt you and has been solid of late, he has a wall the try to throw through in Carolina. Don’t get too cute.

Eddie Lacey: I have given Lacey a lot of love in this space throughout the year and you have to love his schedule during fantasy playoffs. However, this is one of his few Red matchups on the remaining schedule so I might be hesitant to use him if you have better options. Then again, I always love having a guy to watch during the Thanksgiving games.

Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD owners have finally started to see some life out of him the past few games but the Browns defense is not the one of years past where you could count on 100+ yards and a TD or two from a top RB.

Le’Veon Bell: Baltimore is still the toughest defense against opposing rushers and Bell has slowed a bit since his hot start.

Cecil Shorts: With no Justin Blackmon, Shorts is the Jags best receiver and that gets him a date with the Haden Treatment. Sit, sit, sit.

TY Hilton: Hilton injured his shoulder last week, but was able to play through it so I think he should be fine despite his Questionable tag. However, Tennessee is the least generous to opposing WRs and Indy has shown some serious struggles offensively of late.

Vincent Jackson: If you have read my column much recently, you know my deal with Jackson. When he’s faced with a top 5 defensive secondary he generally struggles mightily. That’s why I don’t ever have him on my teams. I’m sitting this week if you own him.

Tony Gonzalez: Gonzalez has quietly had a top 10 TE season thus far, but he is also banged up (a common theme on this side of the fence). Pair that with a cold day in Buffalo and a matchup against Kiko Alonso and Company and it may have a long day.

Vernon Davis: In game 1 against the Rams Vernon had a whopping 2-18-1 line. Without that TD it’s almost like he didn’t play. I think it may end up being more of the same in game 2.

Houston D/ST: The Pats are starting to roll. I wouldn’t expect to see the kind of turnovers that plagued them last week against Denver.

That’s it guys! I hope travels go well and that you enjoy some good times with family and friends! Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Daily Fantasy Spotlight: November 27th

Play of the Day: Kevin Love

Way to go out on a limb, right? Sometimes you have to not get cute, and just play the stud. There are plenty of stars playing today (LeBron, Melo, Dwight, CP3, Paul George, Durant) but Kevin Love is my favorite today. It all has to do with matchup. The Denver Nuggets are last in Opponent PF Efficiency and are allowing 24% more Fantasy Points to Power Forwards than the league average.

When they played two weeks ago Kevin Love posted a 28 pt, 10 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl, 2 blk game (50 FanDuel Points). On November 21st last year, Love posted a 34-14-2-1-3 game against Faried. If you think Hickson will be on Love and that Hickson can guard Love, you are also incorrect. When Hickson was on the Kings, Love tortured Hickson to the tune of 33 points and 11 rebounds. I think Kevin Love is the safest play today if you want to pay up for a superstar.

Value of the Day: Andrea Bargnani

Until injury reports come out, it is hard to narrow in on the real value plays. For now, I like Andrea Bargnani at $5,600 on FanDuel. Bargnani has averaged 24.72 FanDuel points since taking over as the Knicks starter. I hate the guy as a real-life player, but I can’t argue with his fantasy value. Now he gets to face a Clippers team that likes to push the tempo (5th in Pace) and doesn’t particularly care for that thing called defense (21st in Points Allowed per Possession). DeAndre Jordan likes to stay close to the basket which should mean plenty of jump shots for Bargnani. A 30+ FanDuel output is not unlikely tonight.

Fade of the Day: Kosta Koufos

I had some exposure to Koufos on Monday but his price has caught up very quickly even on a site like FanDuel. Koufos was only $4,100 on Monday, so he just needed 21 FanDuel Points to reach value. He exceeded that by scoring 29.6 FanDuel Points vs Dwight and the Rockets. Now his salary has ballooned to $5,700 which requires a score of 28.5 FanDuel Points just to reach value.

Koufos started 81 games last year for the Nuggets so if we include the game on Monday we have a full 82 game season sample to look at. During these 82 games started by Koufos, he has surpassed 28.5 FanDuel points 11 out of 82 times (13.4%). That is not a good percentage of reaching value, folks. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Koufos failed to reach 10 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 82 games started (9.8%). He basically has the same chance of completely flopping than reaching value. Let someone else chase the big game, and pay up for Center today.

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