Josh Culp's Blog, page 59
October 29, 2013
HSBC Champions Fantasy Preview
Last week Ryan Moore took home the CIMB Classic. Not a single person had him in the 50 person One-and-Done league I am in, so I would call it a surprising victory for the True Linksman. This week the Tour stays in Asia as they head to China for the WGC-HSBC Champions. As you can see from the photo above, things are about to get really freaky weird in Shanghai. Golf in Asia means more late-night golf which I could get used to.
The course is Sheshan International and has been the home course of the HSBC Champions since 2005 (except for last year). We are looking at a 7,266 yard Par 72 course. Very few courses on the PGA Tour have a correlation between driving distance and success. This is one of those courses. I’m not saying the short hitters don’t have a shot, but I would suggest giving a slight boost to your favorite bombers as they can really attack this course. The average winning score since 2005 has been around 16-under and Phil Mickelson is the only two-time winner.
Let me give you a few golfers I really like this week, and also some golfers to avoid.
Rory McIlroy is my top dawg this week. I will be using him in my one-and-done league and also be using him heavily in salary cap leagues where the price is right. A lot of people are still in automatic-fade mode for Rory due to his disappointing 2013 season but I think he shows up big time this week. First he showed late signs of life late last year but was just having one bad round that was ruining his tournaments. Second, his last three appearances on this course have resulted in three Top 5 finishes. Hard to argue with that. Third, in his last eight WGC events, he has finished Top 10 in seven of those eight tournaments. The other was a 27th place finish at last years Bridgestone. He has a very low floor, he just beat Tiger one-on-one on Monday so his confidence should be sky high.
TL;DR Take Rory this week.
Keegan Bradley is another guy I love due to his success at multi-tour events like the WGC and Major events. I took him last week and he blew his 36 hole lead but I wouldn’t call it a disappointment because he still finished 10th. I think he is safe for another Top 25 finish this week.
Justin Rose is another fine lad that shows up on the big stage. He finished 7th in his only appearance at Sheshan. With a course like this that features a lot of horses for the course, I want a little more course history out of my picks. One tournament doesn’t cut it for sample size but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Rose took home the bacon this week.
Phil Mickelson is someone you have to consider but is ultimately a pass for me this week. Last week he basically came out and said he had no idea what was going on with his swing. He still managed to pull it together and finish decently in that average field but I wouldn’t bank on him winning this tournament for the third time.
Lee Westwood is another horse for the course that I would feel confident picking this week. His five appearances at Sheshan have resulted in finishes of 13-2-8-2-12. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he finishes outside the Top 25 this week.
Henrik Stenson on the other hand is one of the top guys that I wouldn’t feel confident picking this week. Every week you hear about his wrist injury and how it’s still hurting him yet he still goes out there and competes at a high level. One of these weeks he is going to have a terrible first round and it will make the decision to withdrawal that much easier. This is a no-cut event so why wouldn’t he just fight through the pain and finish? Stenson just won the FedEx Cup. I can think of $10 million reasons why he wouldn’t need to fight through an injury if it flairs up.
Those are some obvious picks, right? How about some more off-the-radar type of picks that might pan out this week? Graham DeLaet fits that mold. DeLaet is a heavy hitter, he finished 19th in Driving Distance last season and his accuracy with his long irons is almost unmatched. We don’t have any course history to go off but this might be the type of course that really tickles his fancy. Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson are two more names that you shouldn’t be afraid to use this week. Their length off the tee will be really helpful this week.
I hope Ryan Moore will be a popular pick this week because he will be on my fade list. He is coming off a win last week in Malaysia but the dude just has zero success in WGC events. He has just one Top 20 finish in his last six tries and that was a 16th place. Moore is the 15th most expensive golfer at DraftStreet and 10th highest at DraftDay. I think he’s more likely to finish in the 30-35 range this week.
My Top 25 for the 2013 WGC-HSBC Champions
1. Rory McIlroy
2. Lee Westwood
3. Justin Rose
4. Keegan Bradley
5. Martin Kaymer
6. Francesco Molinari
7. Jason Dufner
8. Luke Donald
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Bubba Watson
11. Phil Mickelson
12. Graham DeLaet
13. Jimmy Walker
14. Sergio Garcia
15. Jordan Spieth
16. Henrik Stenson
17. Bill Haas
18. Brandt Snedeker
19. Rickie Fowler
20. Billy Horschel
21. Dustin Johnson
22. Ernie Els
23. Nick Watney
24. Ian Poulter
25. Graeme McDowell
That list should be a enough to get you cashing this week in the fantasy golf contests below. Good luck and happy drafting.
HSBC Champions Golf Contests:
Golf Radar Fantasy Golf
Golf Logix Fantasy Golf
FanThrowdown Salary Cap Golf
DraftDay Salary Cap and Pick Em Golf
DraftStreet Salary Cap and Pick Em Golf
Fantasy Golf Tour Free $1K Contest
October 28, 2013
NBA Season Win Totals Preview
Last year I did a Super Cool NBA Season Preview. If you read that preview, you would not have been surprised that the Knicks won the Atlantic while the Celtics fell off the map. Las Vegas was a combined 17 wins off when it came to just these two teams. Meanwhile, my predictions were a combined 3 wins off the actual totals of those two teams. You would have gone 5-2 if you took bets on my seven recommended Season Win Total bets. I also said the Rockets would flirt with the playoffs even though Vegas had them as a 31 win team. Not too shabby.
Enough tooting of my own horn. Let’s not forget about my misses though, either. I said that the Thunder would be a 47 win team when they actually won 60 games and was also very low on the Brooklyn Nets. Overall, a very profitable season if you took my advice. Let’s be honest though. I don’t have the patience, nor do I live in Las Vegas to make these season long bets. If you are a futures bettor then here are my season win predictions for the 2013-14 NBA Season and thoughts on a few of the teams:
Eastern Conference
Atlantic WLVegasCentral WLVegasSoutheastWLVegas
Brooklyn Nets592352Chicago Bulls523056.5Miami Heat612161.5
New York Knicks424049.5Indiana Pacers483455.5Atlanta Hawks414139.5
Toronto Raptors394336Cleveland Cavaliers404240Washington Wizards325038.5
Boston Celtics374528.5Detroit Pistons364640Orlando Magic235926.5
Philadelphia 76ers255716.5Milwaukee Bucks344828.5Charlotte Bobcats206223.5
The Atlanta Hawks finally solidified their post. Millsap, Brand, and Ayon are going to be a huge upgrade and should offset the losses of Josh Smith and Devin Harris. They are still an average team though. Which explains why I have them at 41-41 this season.
The Orlando Magic weren’t as bad as their 20-62 record indicated last year. However, they haven’t done anything to improve so it will likely be another low to mid-20 win season for the Magic. Victor Oladipo will be a fun rookie to watch as he stuffs the stat sheet night in and night out.
The New York Knicks were my pick to win the Atlantic last year and they didn’t disappoint but they have taken a step back. They lost Jason Kidd to retirement and that is going to sting. So underrated, and was a huge key to their success last year. They acquired Beno Udrih to fill the massive void left by Kidd. He is actually pretty solid but nowhere near Kidd’s level. Then comes the acquisition of Andrea Bargnani. Basically the worst #1 Draft pick in NBA history. I only say that because he continues to get played heavy minutes. Over his career his has average -1.6 Wins Produced per season. Yes, he actually hurts the team the more he is on the court. If they start him and continue to do so for the entire season, they will have a lot of troubles.
Meanwhile, it’s really not fair what the Brooklyn Nets have done. They basically went out and acquired as much ‘heart’ as they could. KG, Paul Pierce, AK-47, Jason ‘The Jet’ Terry, and Shaun Livingston provide this team with so much depth, it’s silly. I look for the Nets to run away and hide with the Atlantic Division this year.
The Indiana Pacers are good but not 56 win good. That is what the Vegas total is set on them. The Central Division has improved a lot over the offseason (D Rose, new-look pistons, Cleveland growth). They won 49 games last year and now they play a tougher schedule yet they are supposed to win 7 more games because they acquired CJ Watson and Luis Scola? I don’t believe it, and I think the Under 55.5 on their season win totals is a solid bet.
The Cleveland Cavs only won 26 games but I see them making a leap this year to 40 wins. Unfortunately, Las Vegas is all over that one, as their season win total is set exactly at 40 wins. Kyrie Irving is becoming a star in front of our eyes, Jarrett Jack is going to be a spark plug off the bench, Tristan Thompson is becoming a force down low, and Andrew Bynum is the wildcard. If Bynum has a successful return I think they eclipse the 40 win mark, otherwise they fall just short of 40.
Dont get me wrong, the Boston Celtics are bad, but not THAT bad. Unless Rajon Rondo pulls a Derrick Rose and sits out the entire year, they should easily pass 30 wins. Yes, they lost Pierce, Terry, and Garnett but those three were playing at above-average levels, not elite. My prediction of 37 wins might be a little too high but I do see them winning 30+ games this year and surpassing the Vegas win total.
As a Chicago Bulls fan, it is good to finally have Derrick Rose back but the Bulls lack of PG depth is really scary to me. Kirk Hinrich is solid but he a walking Game-Time Decision at this point in his career. He can’t be trusted to play more than 70 games a year, and that may be stretching it. Mike Dunleavy is a solid bench addition. Overall, I think the Bulls win 50-55 games this year but don’t think they reach the 56.5 total that Vegas has set for them.
Western Conference
NorthwestWLVegasPacificWLVegasSouthwestWLVegas
Oklahoma City Thunder542853.5Los Angeles Clippers612155.5Memphis Grizzlies612151.5
Denver Nuggets473546.5Golden State Warriors464252Dallas Mavericks562643.5
Portland Trail Blazers354738.5Sacramento Kings305232San Antonio Spurs552755.5
Minnesota Timberwolves325041Los Angeles Lakers265636.5Houston Rockets552755
Utah Jazz295325Phoenix Suns206221New Orleans Pelicans344840.5
The Dallas Mavericks are my New York Knicks of last season. I was very high on the Knicks improving last year, and I think the Mavericks make a huge leap this year. The Mavericks use of advanced statistics continues to amaze me, and they are basically running their team like I would, if I could. If you are a believer in the Wins Produced stat, which I am, Jose Calderon produced 20+ wins last year during his time with the Raptors and Pistons. That is up there in Chris Paul territory and was a scary good season. Adding Monta Ellis and Devin Harris gives them a ridiculous backcourt that certainly passes the eye test. The Mavs won 41 games last year but this is an entirely new team, and I think they approach 60 wins. Betting the Vegas line of Over 43.5 Wins is my favorite season win total bet for this year. Lock it up.
The loss of Russell Westbrook for over a month may put the OKC Thunder behind to start the season. Reggie Jackson has more than enough fantasy potential to fill-in for Westbrook from a fantasy point of view, but when we start talking real-life wins, the Thunder may lose a couple extra games in the beginning of the season. Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson are both potential breakout players for the Thunder this season.
Non-Clippers fans will point and laugh when Eric Bledsoe explodes in Phoenix. Clippers fans will quietly giggle because they acquired more than enough weapons in the offseason to offset the loss of Bledsoe. Darren Collison, J.J. Redick, and Jared Dudley should catapult this team into the 60+ range.
Staying in Los Angeles, the L.A. Lakers have one of the worst rosters I can remember seeing in a long time. With Kobe Bryant out to start the season, it is that much worse. Even when he returns from injury, you have a 50 year old Steve Nash, Kobe, Nick Young, Shawne Williams, and Pau Gasol. Nick Young and Shawne Williams are the two that stand out there. Nick Young has never met a shot he doesn’t like. He likes to chuck and that just won’t go well when you already have Kobe chucking. Last year was actually the first time in Young’s career that he wasn’t a negative Wins Produced player. Good for him, but no way should he be starting in the NBA. Barring a trade, I would be legitimately surprised if this team reaches 30 wins.
The Hype Machine is in full effect for New Orleans. Vegas has the Win total set at 40.5 and Anthony Davis is going in the first round of fantasy drafts. How exactly are they going to make this 14 win jump? Is is the Jrue Holiday? He pretty much cancels out the loss of Greivis Vasquez. A full year of Eric Gordon healthy? Haaa, I almost spit out my coffee just writing that. Tyreke Evans coming off the bench will help a lot but not enough for them to reach 40 wins once you factor in the impossible division they play in.
The San Antonio Spurs continue to earn their reputation as the most boring team. Even in the offseason, they remain boring by making zero moves, basically. Tiago Splitter and Kawhi Leonard will do most of the damage this season but Duncan, Manu, and Parker will continue to get all the praise from the media.
Award Prediction Time
MVP: Kevin Durant
Rookie of the Year: 1-Michael Carter-Williams, 2-Victor Oladipo, 3-Steven Adams
Sixth Man of the Year: 1- Devin Harris, 2-Manu Ginobili, 3-Jeremy Lamb
Las Vegas Season Win Total Best Bets
Dallas Mavs Over 43.5 Wins
LA Lakers Under 36.5 Wins
Memphis Grizzlies Over 51.5 Wins
Minnesota Timberwolves Under 41 Wins
Boston Celtics Over 28.5 Wins
Philadelphia 76ers Over 16.5 Wins
NY Knicks Under 49.5 Wins
Indiana Pacers Under 55.5 Wins
Brooklyn Nets Over 52 Wins
Welcome Back: Daily Fantasy NBA Contests
NBA is back and kicks off with a three game slate Tuesday. Season long leagues are a thing of the past. It’s okay if you join one or two but daily fantasy sports is where the industry has headed. If you haven’t tried it out, now is the perfect time.
The beginning of any new sports season is the perfect opportunity to get your feet wet because websites offer quite a few deals that allow you to try them out for free. I will provide a list of these sites at the end of this article, but first let’s do a quick rundown of this three game opening slate.
Orlando @ Indiana: The Pacers are favored by 11.5 in this home opener for the defending Central Division champs. The popular ‘value’ pick in this game will be Victor Oladipo. The rookie finished the preseason averaging 28 FanDuel points per game. That is the same amount of fantasy points as Pacers stud, Paul George. Oladipa did his damage in 26 minutes of play, which isn’t a ton. I think Oladipa will be overtargeted and overowned early in the season but he may reach value in this game if the Pacers get a large lead and let Oladipa have plenty of garbage-time minutes. Like I just mentioned, there is the potential for blowout here as the Pacers are worlds better than the young Magic team. The Pacers starting five should have a fantasy feast before the game gets out of hand.
Chicago @ Miami: This is going to be the best games of the night, easily. Derrick Rose makes his return to the regular season hardwood to face the defending champions, the Miami Heat. Joakim Noah has been sitting out most of the preseason but he says there is an “100% chance” that he will play against Miami. Both of these teams limit their opponents valuable fantasy possessions by forcing turnovers and keeping the pressure applied defensively. On most nights, that means there is limited fantasy value for their fantasy opponents but not tonight. When two powerhouses go at it like this, all the superstars bring their A-Game, and fantasy fireworks fly. I think you want to fit plenty of Bulls and Heat players into your opening night DFS lineups.
L.A. Clippers @ L.A. Lakers: Kobe Bryant has been ruled out for the season opener, so this one should get ugly early. This Lakers roster is one of the worst I’ve seen in a while. If they don’t make any trades then they might be looking at a 25-30 win season. The Clippers on the other hand, made some solid acquisitions in the offseason to restock their bench. CP3 is almost a must-play vs. a Lakers team that won’t have anyone that can stop him. Vegas has the Clippers favored by 8.5 points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up winning by twice that amount. The Lakers are that bad. Pau Gasol will get the ball early and and often. In my opinion, the only way they stay in this is if Nick Young or Jodie Meeks get the hot hand. That makes both of them risky but attractive options.
Daily Fantasy NBA Contests
FanDuel Freerolls: FanDuel is offering daily freerolls during the month of November to help you get acclimated to the Daily NBA Grind. Some of these freerolls will pay out cash, others will pay out tickets to big NFL Contests. Either way, it is a risk-free way to test your NBA skills. If you already consider yourself a savvy NBA player, check out their NBA SLAM contest which is their NBA version of the FanDuel Bomb. A very moderate $25 to enter with huge payouts. $60K in prizes with $10K going to the winner. Also make sure you get in the Partners Exclusive Wednesday Tipoff Freeroll.
DraftStreet $500 NBA Freeroll: Draftstreet has become a leader in the world of Freerolls. This contest features the Wednesday games but pays out $500 in prizes. Check it out for sure!
Fantasy Aces $200 NBA Tipoff Freeroll: This contest will feature the much larger slate of Wednesday night games. There is $200 up for grabs in this one, with the Top 30 getting paid out.
FanThrowdown $11 Daily Freerolls: The great thing about FanThrowdown freerolls is that you know they will be there everyday. They only pay out $11 but it is free to enter and they run one everyday.
DraftKings Daily NBA Freerolls: Just like FanThrowdown, DraftKings offers freerolls ALL the time. They usually pay out Step Tickets which are DraftKings unique step-by-step contests that turn $2 into $200 by winning four contests. Check them out because their paid contests are top class when it comes to Daily NBA. They offer 100% deposit bonus to new users, up to $600 free, and a free ticket to their Million Dollar qualifier. Boom! That’s what’s up.
StarStreet Opening Night Freerolls: StarStreet is giving away Qualifier Tickets to their $100K Playboy Mansion Event. The site added late-game swap so you won’t get screwed by West Coast late-game scratches this year.
Star Fantasy Leagues: Another site that offers quantity over quality when it comes to freerolls. They offer daily freerolls but they pay out a small amount. Go check em out.
October 25, 2013
Week 8 Fantasy Football Contests
This is a weekly post to highlight some Fantasy Football contests worth entering. I’m going to interrupt this football post for a brief moment and mention that DraftKings has a 100% Deposit Bonus for first time depositors, up to $600. That is a free $600 and they are probably the top site when it comes to Daily Fantasy Basketball. Now is a great time to check out DraftKings.
DraftStreet
The weekly $1,000 Freeroll continues at DraftStreet this week. Stop reading this and join now. It’s a great way to try out the site. Once you get a feel for the site, you can try your hand at the Million Dollar Draftstreet Championship. $1 Million to the winner of that contest.
$1 Million 2013 Draftstreet Football Championship
FanDuel
My favorite site to play weekly fantasy football. Their user interface is sexy and they have a ton of contests of all shapes and sizes. Here are a couple to look at this week.
$5 Friends Of FanDuel League – This contest is invite-only so entries stay pretty low. $2,600 in prizes for this exclusive contest means plenty of opportunity to get paid out in this one. Winner also earns a $200 Seat into the huge FFFC Super Qualifier!
$25 Sunday Bomb – This is the massive one. A weekly contest run by FanDuel where you can turn $25 into $25,000. Talk about Return on Investment! Top 1,250 get paid out in this one. This contest fills up every week so get in early! Join this contest instead of going to the movies this weekend…or do both!
FanThrowdown
This is becoming one of my favorite sites to play fantasy football on. They offer daily freerolls for every sport imaginable. They have a ton of Guaranteed Prize Pools including Satellites, Qualifiers, Double Ups, GPP’s, you name it. They updated their interface this week and will continue to make improvements. There isn’t one contest I would recommend over the others but the $11 FTDFC Qualifier is a good one, the $11 Flea Flicker is at a great price point and has a big potential payout, and the Guaranteed Double Ups are a good way to keep your bankroll happy.
$500,000 FanThrowdown Fantasy Football Championship
DraftKings
First time depositors get 100% Deposit Bonus and a Free Entry into the Fantasy Football Millionaire Qualifier. Yes, they are offering $1 Million to the winner of that contest. Crazy, right? Crazy awesome. They have multiple weekly freerolls that give away “Step 1 Tickets” that can get you started at DraftKings.
DraftDay
There bracket contests are in full swing but they have plenty of other weekly contests if you missed out on the Brackets. Some good ones to check out are the Favre $ Footlong, Bear Down, and the Cover II. The first two contests are single-entry GPP’s while the Cover II is a 100 team Double Up.
FREE DraftDay $1 Million Perfect Lineup
Fantasy Aces
Aces is rapid growing and will soon be one of the elite in the industry. Get your foot in the door early.
Matt Forte $11 GPP – Fantasy Aces teamed up with Matt Forte to bring you this weekly GPP contest. There are 100 spots in this tournament but they are filling fast.
$10 Freeroll – Title explains it all. They offer a $10 and $5 freeroll. Good contests to give the site a trial. Top 3 get paid out in each.
Fantasy Feud
Fantasy Feud is offering the Feud of Champions which will pay out $30K to the winner at the end of the season. It might be worth joining a few of those qualifiers. If you want to try out the site first, they offer a couple weekly Freerolls with $150 up for grabs.
Other Contests:
StarStreet Playboy Fantasy Football Championship Qualifiers
Star Fantasy League GPPs & Weekly Freeroll
WarDraft – New site that offers a $500 Freeroll to anyone that deposits and plays $5, Daily NHL Freerolls, and Weekly NFL Freerolls. Check Em Out
StatClash $10 GPP ($1,000 Prize Pool)
Happy Drafting!
October 23, 2013
Start Em’ & Sit Em’: Week 8
Week 7 was quite the weekend of football. The injury list was lengthy compared to the previous 6 weeks. Maybe the Julio Jones news was just a bit of a warning sign in a year where there hadn’t been much to look at on the waiver-wires. Doug Martin’s injury is possibly the headliner. It’s an ambiguous injury, one that could lead to a long absence or just a few games. He looks doubtful for this week anyway. He has been disappointing to say the least so far, but I have still added Mike James where possible off the pure upside he gets a long-term full-time gig. Sam Bradford is out for the year, and Kellen Clemmens/Brady Quinn represent a major downgrade. I had already started dropping Tavon Austin in several redraft leagues, but now that may extend across the board. I understand if you want to give it a week before cutting bait with your Rams, but I’m not optimistic it will turn out well. Above all though, prayers go out to Jermichael Finley as he looks to recover from a bruised spinal chord. The injury looked nasty on Sunday, and it’s one of those situations where getting back on the field is an afterthought behind just getting healthy.
As for this week, we have the Bears, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Ravens and Texans all on bye. That is a huge week coupled with some major injuries meaning some owners will be scrambling to fill out their lineups. Don’t fear, that’s why we’re here! Let’s take a look at some matchups we like this week, and some we don’t as well.
START EM’
Eli Manning: Manning let me down last week, mainly because he wasn’t needed much in an easy victory over hapless Minnesota. I’m sticking with him this week against Philly.
Michael Vick: I also like Manning’s counterpart. Even coming back from injury, Vick should be able to run and throw against the Giants. Maybe this will be the high scoring game we though the Eagles-Cowboys game would be last week.
Lacy has run over some tough defense the past few weeks, so Minnesota should be a welcome sight.
Eddie Lacy: Remember those hapless Vikings? Lacey gets them this week. He looks poised to reward owners who stuck with him through a rough start to the season.
Alfred Morris: The Butler ceded a few scores to Roy Helu last week, but owners shouldn’t panic. He’s still averaging over 5 yards a carry for the year and the TDs should come again soon.
Darren McFadden: I don’t like going out on a limb in suggesting McFadden, but his hamstring seems to be fully healed and beggars can’t be choosers. In a week were several big name RBs are on bye or injured, I’m rolling McFadden out.
Jarrett Boykin: I watched the entire Packers game last week, and Boykin looked good filling in the Randall Cobb role. Rodgers has said good things about Boykin, and clearly trusts him. You should too.
Marques Colston: The bye came at the right time for Colston owners. Two duds, right before the break may not instill much confidence for owners, but he is capable of going off on any given sunday with Brees at the helm.
Terrence Williams: I think he has officially overtaken Miles Austin in Dallas, and has top-20 WR upside going forward. That’s usually matchup proof, but this week he gets an easy matchup to boot.
Jordan Reed: I told you this was coming a few weeks ago. I believe he’s here to stay.
Jordan Cameron: The Browns have switched to Jason Campbell… Yikes! While I am concerned for the Browns offense going forward, I am more worried about the outlook for Josh Gordon. Cameron should be fine.
Packers D/ST: Ponder is back. Stop Peterson, stop the Vikings is also back.
SIT EM’
Carson Palmer: Palmer looked dreadful last week. So bad that I can’t find a reason I’d start him even in a good matchup.
Andy Dalton: Dalton enjoyed a couple big weeks against sub-par opponents. This week he comes back to earth against the Jets.
Peyton Hillis: I’m surprised to see Hillis projected relatively high across the board this week. Granted he looked decent last week, but this is Peyton Hillis…. Brandon Jacobs may play this week, sliding Hillis back to the bench, where he should belong anyway.
Steven Jackson: Early reports are that Jackson expects to play this weekend. After he just had a “setback” last week, I’m not buying he’s all the way back. My guess is that he’d be limited and I want no part of that. Show me something first…
Bilal Powell: Powell has seen his workload steadily decreased since his week 3 149 yard explosion, bottoming out at 3 carries for 6 yards and 0 pts last week.
Harry Douglas: While the damage was quite extensive last week, all of it came in the first half for Douglas. I like him going forward, but it’s a tough matchup this week in Arizona. I’m skeptical he does it two weeks in a row.
Vincent Jackson: Unstopable forces meet this week in Jackson and the Panthers’ secondary. Which budges? I’m thinking it’s Jackson who has a history of disappearing in tough matchups.
Mike Wallace: New England knows how to shut down a team’s #1, making Wallace a dicey play this week.
Kyle Rudolph: I was considering Rudolph for the Starts this week until I heard that Ponder was back in due to a Josh Freeman concussion. Ponder is just too unreliable to trust Rudolph unless you’re desperate.
Scott Chandler: This will be two tough matchups in a row for Chandler, and I believe it will be a 2nd straight dud as well.
Buffalo D/ST: New Orleans is the kind of offense that can break through the best of defenses. Buffalo isn’t the best of defenses.
A FanDuel Rookie’s Journey Week 8 Picks #TimeToShine #BeginnersLuck
Week 7 was another sub-par week for yours truly, as other than Matt Forte the rest of my lineup did nothing special and yet again, I found myself floating around the middle of the standings in no-cashville. With the season somehow nearly at its halfway point, I am confident in the fact that in every week I’ve had at least one home run pick, with a couple weeks coming mighty close to all of the pieces fitting together to get into the loot. I haven’t officially made any Babe-Ruth-like pointing-to-left-field predictions as of yet, so I’m calling it now- this is the week I cash and make some noise. So, here we go.
For my QB for the Fan Duel FFFC Qualifier Contest for Week 8, I’m going with Robert Griffin III as my man. For the first time since returning from injury, RGIII has looked like, well, RGIII the past two weeks. He’s not shying away from running the ball, as evidenced by his combined 20 carries for 161 yards in the past two games, and he’s simply playing without fear. Now, from a long term standpoint I don’t necessarily like the fact that he continues to put his head down, take big hits and not run out of bounds when he should as a QB in this league, but for one week, I love it, and against a vulnerable Denver defense I especially like his chances to put up some big numbers, whether it’s a close game or in garbage time (see his stats vs GB in week 2 of the season- all primarily in garbage time).
My RBs for Week 8 are Reggie Bush and Le’Veon Bell. I took Reggie because even though they’ve been hot of late, the Cowboys are due for a letdown (I don’t think that line would be as high as Det -3 otherwise), he’s extra lightning fast on that Ford Field home turf and with an OU of 51 ½, there will be points scored in this game. I selected Le’Veon because the Steelers are finally beginning to hit their stride and I love the way he carries the rock. I expect the Steelers to win that game, meaning that Big Ben won’t be slinging passes all day long, so Le’Veon likely will get 20+ touches. I also feel extra confident in both of these picks because Fantasy Football Nerd has Reggie and Le’Veon ranked 7th + 11th respectively for Week 8.
My WRs for this week are Wes Welker, Rueben Randle and Golden Tate. I took Welker because the Broncos no doubt will be airing it out all day in what will be a scoring fiesta (the OU is 59!), Randle because he’s actually been one of the lone bright spots on the lowly Giants team the past three weeks and Tate because for whatever reason I just have a major gut feeling on him doing something special on MNF…oh yeah, and the Rams royally suck, so that helps too.
I took Vernon Davis as my TE, as he’s been a beast of late and should have a big day vs the woeful Jags London style. I took Jay Feely as my kicker and the Cardinals Defense as I find it hilarious that people think the Falcons are “back” after one home win/cover vs the pathetic Buccaneers. Arizona is going to win that game and it’s going to be because of sloppy play and turnovers from the overrated-for-years Falcons, so I love Feely booting multiple FGs + a couple extra points, as well as the Cards’ D to feast all day long.
Well, that’s a wrap for Week 8. Good luck to all of you with your action!
#isitSundayyet
Joel Harrington
@joel4deepgolf
October 22, 2013
CIMB Classic Fantasy Preview
Talk about a strange tournament in Las Vegas last week. Webb Simpson ran away from the field and won with ease. Webb Simpson winning is not the strange part. Webb is a solid golfer, but hometown golfers like Nick Watney and Scott Piercy struggling was not a typical sight to see in Las Vegas. These tournaments happen sometimes. Just like daily fantasy sports, the advantage of fantasy golf is you get to start fresh the following week.
This week we travel across the world, to Malaysia, to play the CIMB Classic. This tournament is a no-cut event with a small field of less than 80 golfers. The CIMB Classic has been running since 2010 but this will be the first year the tournament is played on this course, Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club. The $1.26 Million for first place is quite high, so this becomes an important tournament if you play in a One-and-Done league.
Let’s take a look at who should compete this week:
Phil Mickelson has to be close to the top after his career year in 2013. I think Mickelson made a deal with the devil to let him play his best golf during the year 2013. It’s still 2013 on the calendar so take advantage of Phil while he is still playing like a young pup. I expect Phil to be in contention but fall just short this week.
Keegan Bradley is another name I like this week. It’s not his name I actually like, it’s his golf game. Keegan loves to bring his A-Game to all the multi-tour events such as Majors and WGC events. Now that this tournament counts towards the FedEx Cup and PGA Earnings, I think he will bring the same intensity to Malaysia. Bradley is also my favorite OAD pick this week. This is a rather mediocre field for a tournament with such high payouts. Keegan should be locked into a Top 25 finish with a good chance at taking home the hardware.
Jimmy Walker is the hottest golfer on Tour if you’re only looking at the 2013-14 season. He followed up his maiden PGA Tour victory with a 12th place last week. Very impressive considering many will falter after their first PGA victory. If you are a believer in “ride em’ while they’re hot” then Walker is your man this week. Jeff Overton, Charles Howell III, and Daniel Summerhays might also fit in that category.
My super secret sleeper of the week is Chris Kirk. He is not a well-known name to casual golf fans but he was a stud last season. He was 16th in All-Around Ranking, 11th in Par Breakers, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, and 18th in Strokes-Gained Putting. His only downfall is his accuracy off the tee. If you’re playing in Salary Cap leagues this weekend, I would suggest throwing Kirk on a few of your lineups. He should have low ownership, but pay off big time.
Sergio Garcia is another name I have to throw out there for sure. Garcia made every cut during his 17 PGA Tour events last season, including Top 25s in 11 of those 17. For a man that is so consistently bad on Sundays, it is strange that he can post Top 25s at such a high clip.
Hideki Matsuyama is another one of the favorites this week. The only thing that worries me is his withdrawal due to illness last week. If that illness lingered at all, then traveling 20+ hours across the country is not going to be ideal on his immune system.
Bo Van Pelt is getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers. Van Pelt is 25/1 this week which is the 6th lowest odds. Van Pelt has had success here in the past, but that was on another course. Maybe they are factoring in his short travel since he played in Australia last week? I don’t think that is enough of an advantage to get me onboard on the Van Pelt train this week.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is an interesting name to consider this week. The Barn Rat won the 2013 Malaysian Open which just happens to be played at this very course. However, he was beating out Edoardo Molinari and Anders Hansen in that event, not Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, and Keegan Bradley. He also missed the cut at the 2011 Malaysian Open and withdrew after one round in 2012, so he’s not a true Horse for this course.
My Top 25 for the 2013 CIMB Classic
1. Keegan Bradley
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Chris Kirk
5. Graham DeLaet
6. Jimmy Walker
7. Charles Howell III
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Bill Haas
10. Matt Jones
11. Billy Horschel
12. Brendon de Jonge
13. Harris English
14. Ryan Palmer
15. Kevin Stadler
16. Bubba Watson
17. Rory Sabbatini
18. Roberto Castro
19. Bryce Molder
20. David Hearn
21. Jerry Kelly
22. Chris Stroud
23. Rickie Fowler
24. Ernie Els
25. Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Good Luck and Happy Golfing this week!
CIMB Golf Contests:
Golf Radar Fantasy Golf
Golf Logix Fantasy Golf
FanThrowdown Salary Cap Golf
DraftDay Salary Cap and Pick Em Golf
DraftStreet Salary Cap and Pick Em Golf
Fantasy Golf Tour Free $1K Contest
October 18, 2013
Week 7 Fantasy Football Contests
This is a weekly post to highlight some Fantasy Football contests worth entering. Take note that some of these cost money to enter but some are free AKA Freerolls. I hope you took advantage of last weeks contests and have started to build your bankroll. I have two straight losing weeks, so I hope you’ve fared better than I have recently.
DraftStreet
This is the whopper for people looking for a Week 7 NFL Freeroll. The weekly $1,000 Freeroll continues at DraftStreet this week. Get in now. If you like the site then make a deposit and try one of the DFFC Qualifiers. It could be your ticket to $1 Million.
$1 Million 2013 Draftstreet Football Championship
FanDuel
My favorite site to play weekly fantasy football. Their user interface is sexy and they have a ton of contests of all shapes and sizes. Here are a couple to look at this week.
$5 Friends Of FanDuel League – This contest is invite-only so entries stay pretty low. $2,600 in prizes for this exclusive contest means plenty of opportunity to get paid out in this one. Winner also earns a $200 Seat into the huge FFFC Super Qualifier!
$25 Sunday Bomb – This is the massive one. A weekly contest run by FanDuel where you can turn $25 into $25,000. Talk about Return on Investment! Top 1,250 get paid out in this one. This contest fills up every week so get in early! Join this contest instead of going to the movies this weekend…or do both!
FanThrowdown
This is becoming one of my favorite sites to play fantasy football on. They offer daily freerolls for every sport imaginable. They have a ton of Guaranteed Prize Pools including Satellites, Qualifiers, Double Ups, GPP’s, you name it. They updated their interface this week and will continue to make improvements. There isn’t one contest I would recommend over the others but the $11 FTDFC Qualifier is a good one, the $11 Flea Flicker is at a great price point and has a big potential payout, and the Guaranteed Double Ups are a good way to keep your bankroll happy.
$500,000 FanThrowdown Fantasy Football Championship
DraftKings
First time depositors get 100% Deposit Bonus and a Free Entry into the Fantasy Football Millionaire Qualifier. Yes, they are offering $1 Million to the winner of that contest. Crazy, right? Crazy awesome. They have multiple weekly freerolls that give away “Step 1 Tickets” that can get you started at DraftKings.
DraftDay
There bracket contests are in full swing but they have plenty of other weekly contests if you missed out on the Brackets. Some good ones to check out are the Favre $ Footlong, Bear Down, and the Cover II. The first two contests are single-entry GPP’s while the Cover II is a 100 team Double Up.
FREE DraftDay $1 Million Perfect Lineup
Fantasy Aces
Aces is rapid growing and will soon be one of the elite in the industry. Get your foot in the door early.
Matt Forte $11 GPP – Fantasy Aces teamed up with Matt Forte to bring you this weekly GPP contest. There are 100 spots in this tournament but they are filling fast.
$10 Freeroll – Title explains it all. They offer a $10 and $5 freeroll. Good contests to give the site a trial. Top 3 get paid out in each.
Fantasy Feud
Fantasy Feud is offering the Feud of Champions which will pay out $30K to the winner at the end of the season. It might be worth joining a few of those qualifiers. If you want to try out the site first, they offer a couple weekly Freerolls with $150 up for grabs.
Other Contests:
StarStreet Playboy Fantasy Football Championship Qualifiers
Star Fantasy League GPPs & Weekly Freeroll
WarDraft – New site that offers a $500 Freeroll to anyone that deposits and plays $5, Daily NHL Freerolls, and Weekly NFL Freerolls. Check Em Out
StatClash $10 GPP ($1,000 Prize Pool)
Happy Drafting!
October 17, 2013
Start Em’ & Sit Em’: Week 7
It was just one of those weeks. You know what I’m talking about… I lost two key players on one of my teams (DeMarco Murray and Randall Cobb) by halftime of their games. I took a hit from that in addition to losing them for what appeared to be multiple game injuries. Oh yeah, and then the guy I’m playing has AJ Green (22pts), Jordy Nelson (21pts), Vincent Jackson (32pts), Jamaal Charles (29pts), Vernon Davis (38pts) AND Justin Blackmon (33pts). I would say the fact that I had just traded him Vernon Davis the prior week made it worse, but I wouldn’t have even won if I hadn’t. Yes, it was one of those weeks. I didn’t even have to watch the Monday night game even though I had 3 guys going. But hey, that’s fantasy football for you. You have to tip your hat to the other guy, dust yourself and your team off, and move forward with the season. Maybe you can relate to that. Let’s dust off together and take a look into week 7 and see who looks poised to help your team and who might leave you feeling jilted yet again.
START EM’
Nick Foles: Foles has come in and excelled while Vick has been out with a hamstring injury. He looks likely to start again this week and gets a Dallas defense that looked better against RGIII last week, but was still beatable. It’s one of those cases where a positive in recent performance, plus a positive in a good matchup equals happy owners.
Eli Manning: Brother Eli has been horrendous in real life for the Giants, leading the league in turnovers. The results in fantasy have been dulled a little because of his TDs. He hasn’t been horrible, but he hasn’t been what you drafted either. However, he still has three excellent options in the passing game and the running game looks to have taken a step forward last week. Their defense is horrible so you know they will be throwing a lot to catch up. I like him this week. He may still give you an INT or 2, but there should be plenty of yards and a couple TDs as well.
Brandon Jacobs: Speaking of the Giants’ improved ground game, Jacobs looked mighty good last week running all over the Bears defense. He doesn’t have long speed , but he looked powerful and was quick to make a cut and turn upfield. Minnesota can be run on, and the Giants might look to try to keep their defense off the field early.
Ray Rice: Anyone with a decent running game has had success against the Steelers this year, and Baltimore is learning that they need to feed Rice if they want to win games. Even if he doesn’t look himself right now, he’s the best option they have.
Alfred Morris: Chicago just had their buts handed to them by Jacobs on Sunday, and in steps another powerful back who cuts and gets upfield in a hurry. I smell another long day for Chicago’s rushing defense.
Blackmon has been electrifying through two games for the Jaguars.
Justin Blackmon: Two games into the season and yes, he’s a must start. A must start for the Jaguars. Yep, you read that correctly.
Reuben Randle: Randle has looked great at times, and horrible at others. One minute he’s scoring on a long touchdown pass where he has to cut against the sideline and take a big hit to get in. The next he’s dropping a pass or clearly running the wrong route, leading to a Manning pick-6. It speaks volumes that he continues to play for Tom Coughlin after these mistakes. Many talented players have found themselves benched for long periods of time for the same mistakes. He continues to see good opportunities with Nicks and Cruz taking attention and may find himself another big day against Minnesota.
T.Y. Hilton: The Colts are playing Denver this week. The Colts will be throwing a lot this week. Hilton plays WR, which is part of the passing game. Get the trend?
Jordan Cameron: I know, this should be a no-brainer. Just in case you might be thinking of benching him though because of his lackluster two previous games, don’t get cute. I think he misses the endzone. Weeden may not be a good NFL starting QB, but he has an arm and will throw a lot.
Coby Fleener: See Hilton, T.Y. above. Pretty much the same concept except Fleener plays TE. Yes, that’s also part of the passing game.
49ers D/ST: Playing against a team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm and CJ?K leading the running game? I’ll take that.
SIT EM’
Mr. Rodgers will be missing a couple of his best friends this weekend against the Browns.
Aaron Rodgers: This might be a tough one to swallow, and you’re probably playing him anyway… But he will be without Randall Cobb for sure, and James Jones will likely miss this one as well. That leaves only Jordy Neslon of the receiving trio left for Rodgers to throw to. Jermichael Finley will be in there as weel, but it’s not looking good for Rodgers against Cleveland.
Sam Bradford: His three TDs last week made his 117 yards passing last week look great. I missed on him last week, but I’m sticking to my guns here in another bad matchup,
Knowshon Moreno: Moreno has looked like a new man with all the attention of defenses going to stopping Peyton Manning. That has left plenty of running room for Moreno thus far, but I’m not sure that room will be there against Indy this week.
Joique Bell: Bell padded that stat sheet the first couple weeks, but has since ceded more and more playing time to Reggie Bush. Add that to his injury he picked up last week and I don’t think he’s any more than a low-end flex option as long as Bush is healthy.
Stevan Ridley: Owners might see his great game last week and think, “Wow, the Ridley we drafted is finally here!’ Well, you may be disappointed. He has the Jets this week.
Jordy Nelson: As mentioned above, Nelson will be the Lone Ranger of the Green Bay WR trio on the field this week. That means Joe Haden. That means a long day for Mr. Nelson.
Andre Johnson: We discussed above where + plus + = ++. Well, Johnson gets the Chiefs this week (-) and he will be getting passes from Case Keenum (-). That would be – plus – = –.
Anquan Boldin: Boldin had 26pts in week 1 and has had 25pts since. This is not a knock on him, but defenses quickly realized that he and Vernon Davis are the only players they have to stop in the 49er passing game.
Charles Clay: A nice surprise so far this season, but he gets a Bills defense that has stifled some good TEs this year.
Brent Celek: Just because he has a good matchup and I like his QB this week doesn’t mean he’s a good play. Outside of the occasional TD, this guys just doesn’t give you much.
Lions D/ST: They won’t be seeing any cross-field flip passes to bail them out this week.
October 16, 2013
A FanDuel Rookie’s Journey Week 7 Picks #BeginnersLuck
After a very solid previous week, Week 6 in the Fan Duel FFFC Qualifier was pretty blah for me. By the time Keenan Allen had a career night on MNF, I was already out of any payout contention for the week, making me look forward all the more to Week 7. So, here we go with this week’s picks.
For my QB for Week 7, I went with Eli Manning. Yep, Eli has sucked this season and the Giants have crapped their way to an 0-6 start, but vs the Vikings Defense at home on a Monday night? I’m guaranteeing the Giants finally earn their first victory of the season, and in doing so Eli will have a big night. He’s all the better of a pick since his salary is just $6,800 in Fan Duel this week, far lower than most of the other “startable” QBs on the list.
I went with Matt Forte and Lamar Miller as my RBs for Week 7. I selected Matt Forte as the Redskins Defense is a flat joke and the OU is 50 ½ on that game, meaning that there will be a plethora of points scored. Also, I felt extra confident in that pick since Fantasy Football Nerd has him #2 in their rankings for Week 7. I selected Lamar Miller as Miami is due to get back on track after two straight losses, and will do so as a big favorite (-8) vs Buffalo. I see Lamar with close to 100 yards of rushing and a TD this week.
I went with Wes Welker, Justin Blackmon and Greg Jennings for my WRs. I selected Welker as the Sunday night game between Denver and Indy will be an absolute shootout (OU is 55.5), and Welker has been a TD machine this season, scoring in all 6 games thus far. I took Justin Blackmon as he’s been huge in his two games this season since returning from PED suspension and should have another solid day vs the San Diego secondary. I selected Greg Jennings as I do expect the Vikings to put up some points on Monday night with Josh Freeman now at QB, especially as once the Giants build a comfy lead, the Vikes will be airing it out to play catch up.
For my TE for Week 7 I went with Julius Thomas as, like Welker (and the rest of the Broncos team this season), he has been a TD machine. I took the Miami Dolphins as my Defense for the week as they’re going to smother Thad Lewis and the Bills at home. I took Alex Henery as my kicker as there will be a boatload of points in that Dallas/Philly game, and hopefully Dallas can hold Philly to several field goals instead of it just being a PAT fest.
Good luck to everyone this week!
#isitSundayyet
Joel Harrington
