Josh Culp's Blog, page 35
June 17, 2015
U.S. Open Victiv Picks
Welcome to the first edition of our Victiv golf picks! After talking to Josh, we decided the U.S. Open was the perfect time to begin our weekly Victiv articles. I’ll be testing out various formats for the Victiv articles so feel free to comment and let us know what you would like to see. For those unfamiliar with golf on Victiv, you select 7 golfers for your lineup, but only the top 5 scores count. This is VERY important when considering what strategy you want to take while building your lineup. A low-cost punt can save you a ton of salary and the score can be dropped if/when they miss the cut.
This week I’ll be keeping it simple with a pick or two from each of 4 salary categories, as well as thoughts on who could have a high ownership or low ownership percentage.
The Top ($10,000 and above):
Justin Rose ($10,200) – It is hard to go wrong with the upper echelon of players this week, but I am really liking Rose this week. Top 30 in Driving Distance, Proximity to the Hole, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and Bounce Back Percentage. The form is there and this course just seems to fit him well.
The Better Pack ($8,000 to $10,000):
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100) – Matsuyama stuck out like a sore thumb while looking at a combination of stats and form. He has great stats and great form. He had a better score than anyone else in my research. This price seems way too low for him and because of that I am afraid he will have one of the highest ownership percentages this week. The only stat that worries me with him is Bounce Back Percentage, where he is ranked 199th out of 202. For those not familiar with the stat, it is the percent of time a player scored under par on a hole after scoring over par on the prior hole. At a course that could play tough, I want players who can bounce back from a bad hole. However, everything else looks greats so if he never has to “bounce back” this won’t be an issue.
Kevin Na ($8,300) – I was originally off Na because I thought only bombers would survive this week. After seeing quotes from various players after practice rounds there seems to be different opinions… there are multiple ways to play this course. Na’s form is unbelievable so that checks out. 21st in Scrambling, 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 7th in Bounce Back Percentage.
The Worse Pack ($6,000 to $8,000)
George McNeill ($6,800) – If you look at the important stats for McNeill this week, nothing is necessarily bad but there is nothing that great. McNeill is more of a form and feel pick. He has finished in the top 30 the last 5 events he has played with two top 15s. Hopefully he can keep up the recent form.
Punt ($6,000 and below)
Let me start this off by saying that I will never EXPECT someone below $6k to win a tournament. As I said earlier, it is very important to find someone on Victiv that is cheap because your two lowest scores get dropped. However, don’t waste a pick completely on this punt… you never know when your top plays will blow up.
Lucas Glover ($4,600) – The former U.S. Open champ has actually been playing some decent golf recently and may be worth taking a chance on. He is making cuts and the stats are there to back it up… besides putting. His putting is typically atrocious and always has been. On the bright side, he is 31st in Driving Distance, 4th in Proximity to the Hole, and 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. If he can get the putter going this week he has a real shot at playing well.
Potential Players with High Ownership: McIlroy, Spieth, Matsuyama, Mickelson, Glover
Potential Players with Low Ownership: Reed, Koepka, Palmer, Streb, Aiken
U.S. Open Fantasy Preview
With a laptop malfunction on top of mind, please excuse my brevity this week. I will publish this now but check back as I may add more thoughts as the day goes on (time permitting).
The course this week if Chambers Bay and if you haven’t heard, it’s UNIQUE. It plays as short at 7,400 yards (which is still long) and can stretch out past 7,900 if needed. I think the USGA will play it by ear based on wind direction to set up the distances every day. There could be a couple days where the yardage plays similarly but the wind and or tee box setups could make it play entirely different. The grass is fescue throughout but the greens have patches of poa + bentgrass as well. The firmness throughout is evident as it’s basically like playing on a trampoline.
Built on pure sand, it would take a monsoon to get this course to play soft. It will play firm and fast all week, and the toughest task will be to keep it from getting baked out.
Bombers say it’s a bomber’s paradise. Short hitters say you don’t need distance due to firmness. Local Michael Putnam says the course has changed over the years, but not much while local Ryan Moore says it’s a completely different course when even compared to last week. The commonality this week appears to be that everyone is on a different page.
As a tiebreaker I want golfers that are longest in their threesome. Gives ability to see how the conditions are playing for the day before attacking pin. With so much unknown, this could give you a slight edge.
U.S. Open Trends
-Jerry Pate (1976) was the last to win the U.S. Open without 4+ Major starts prior to winning. Go with experience over form if needed.
-9 of last 10 winners had at least one Top 30 in a previous US Open. It’s key to know your golfer can overcome a USGA-setup course.
-8 of last 9 winners had at least one top 10 in their five starts leading into US Open. This is looking at PGA TOUR starts only. They don’t have to be en fuego, but they need to have shown signs of life recently. Sorry Adam Scott, Patty Reed, Charl, G-Mac, etc.
Players to Watch
Dustin Johnson… He flamed out last week and called it quits after nine holes. He’s still having a great year overall and remains one of the top Links golfers. I can almost guarantee he’ll win one of the three remaining majors. Could this be the one? Certainly.
Billy Horschel… He’s hot which means you keep riding him. He Periscoped from the course a few weeks ago so you know he’s done some preparation.
Jordan Spieth… Spieth’s caddie having knowledge of the course will be nice but it may also lead to Spieth questioning why he didn’t tell him about particular bounces or could be information overload if he tells him about every potential bounce or possible angle. Overall, I’m considering this a small factor but Spieth’s out-of-this-world talent is really what makes him appealing.
Rickie Fowler… Only DJ and Sergio have gained more strokes at the Open Championship since 2010. He loves some links golf. Give this big-game hunter a strong look this week.
Sergio Garcia… Speaking of Sergio, he loves a links-style layout and will get overlooked by many due to his reputation as a choke artist. I will gladly take someone that near the top on Sunday and can’t quite finish rather than someone that doesn’t even get into contention. It’s a good problem to have and you would think he will finally put away a major at some point in his career.
Justin Rose … He’s a wildcard in my eyes. On one hand he’s playing superb golf. On the other, he sucks on Links courses, at least historically. For that reason he’s dropped outside of my top 5 but still inside my top 10.
U.S. Open Cheatsheet… I love hearing about the success people are having with the weekly DraftKings cheatsheet so check it out.
Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks. This is includes guys that fit the stat profile, golfers that are in good form, course history, recommended cash game targets and more!
Top 25 for the 2015 U.S. Open
1. Rory McIlroy
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Sergio Garcia
5. Rickie Fowler
6. Phil Mickelson
7. Brandt Snedeker
8. Henrik Stenson
9. Justin Rose
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Jim Furyk
12. Jason Day
13. Matt Kuchar
14. Brooks Koepka
15. Ryan Moore
16. Jimmy Walker
17. Kevin Chappell
18. Keegan Bradley
19. Ian Poulter
20. Francesco Molinari
21. Chris Kirk
22. Ryan Palmer
23. Bill Haas
24. Kevin Na
25. Hunter Mahan
June 16, 2015
U.S. Open DraftKings Picks
Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! This week is exciting as we ready for the second major of the season. No, THE PLAYERS does not count. For the first time in U.S. Open history, we head to the Pacific Northwest on a links-style course.
There will be much more about that tomorrow, but first let’s take a quick peek at DraftKings…
This week’s winner of the Future of Fantasy Golf Tour contest on DraftKings will be awarded a dozen golf balls, so hop in there. Comment at the end of the post if you need an invite. Spots are first come, first serve until we fill the 50 spots.
Form Fitting
Billy Horschel ($8000)… 8th-11th-13th-48th-51st
Kevin Na ($7100)… 13th-10th-6th
Keegan Bradley ($7700)… 8th-22nd-MC-22nd
Justin Rose ($11,500)… 2nd-MC-1st
Hideki Matsuyama ($8900)… 5th-20th-17th
Kevin Chappell ($6100)… 22nd-49th-19th-16th-MC-MC
This team is toasty as of late. Ride em while they’re hot. Some other form figures on my radar include Jordan Sieth, Rory McIlroy, Jim Furyk, Brandt Snedeker, and Brendon Todd.
Tournament Horse-tory
Jason Day ($9900)… 4th-2nd-59th-2nd
Matt Kuchar ($8800)… 12th-28th-27th-14th-6th-208th-48th
Sergio Garcia ($9600)… 35th-45th-38th-7th-58th-23rd-29th
Webb Simpson ($7500)… 45th-32nd-1st-14th
Kevin Chappell ($6100)… 32nd-10th-3rd
Brandt Snedeker ($8100)… 9th-17th-11th-8th-72nd-9th
This isn’t like most weeks were we can pile on course horses. With a rota of courses, this team is all about the ability to play tough tracks set up by the USGA.
Handpicked Value Plays
Kevin Chappell ($6,100) … He’s got nothing worse than a T32 in three U.S. Open starts. That includes a pair of top 10s. He’s been in contention on tough USGA-setup venues before. He’s found form lately as well. It was extra icing on an already icy cake when Joel Harrington informed me on this week’s podcast that Chap owns a home in Kirkland, WA, a mere 45 miles from Chambers Bay.
Ryan Moore ($7,500) … Speaking of local connections, Moore has those ties. He grew up just 15 miles away from the site of Chambers Bay and has likely played the course more than anyone this week outside of Michael Putnam. He is a tough mouse to catch when his game clicks and that may just happen this week as he tees it up in his back yard.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,100) … He’s not super cheap but he may fly under the radar this week. Many will see Billy Ho right below him and ride the hot hand or pay up $400 more for everyone’s favorite Villain, Patty Reed. This will leave Sneds under-owned and I’ll grab up his seven career wins and 10 career top 15s in majors with pleasure.
Free PGA DraftKings Contest for New Users
Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Standings
Comment below with your DraftKings username if you need a invite to this week’s Future of Fantasy Golf Tour contest.
June 15, 2015
Fantasy Aces adds PGA to their Arsenal
When it comes to the enjoyment of playing daily fantasy sports, size doesn’t always matter. You could be the largest DFS site in the world that does not offer golf, or you could be on the smaller end of the spectrum but include PGA in your offerings. I would prefer the latter, and Fantasy Aces now falls squarely into that category.
Over the past month they have been testing their PGA product and that includes some recent freerolls. Gaining valuable insights and feedback from users. It will surely evolve over time, but I must say I rather enjoy the current state. The salaries are tight but offer a wide range for chances to go stars & scrubs, much like DraftStreet used to do back in the day. They don’t offer crazy bonuses that have you scratching your head or calculating far-fetched scenarios of what needs to happen (or not happen) for you to win.
Instead, Aces gives out scores based solely on hole-by-hole performance. It does favor the positive scoring just a tad over negative scoring (5 pts for eagle vs -2 pts for double bogey) which increases the value of a cut made, like it should be. The one bonus they do give out is a +10 bonus for selecting the winner of the tournament. This helps almost guarantee that the winner of the tournament will be the highst scorer of the event. What’s worse than picking the winner but seeing him get outscored because someone else got a hole-in-one or albatross? That shouldn’t be the case at Fantasy Aces.
Fantasy Aces has always been a site on my radar, but I’ve played sparingly until now. It’s time to add them to our lists of sites we take a look at weekly. This week for the U.S. Open they are hosting a $100 Freeroll, a $27.50 GPP that pays out $500 to the winner, a $2.75 GPP that pays out $61 to the winner, as well as 50/50s and Head-to-Heads as you’d expect.
June 10, 2015
FedEx St. Jude Classic Fantasy Preview
We head to Memphis this week for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Having a look at the field, it’s not hard to notice how WEAK the field is. You have a few studs at the top, but most of the field is fighting to earn a FEC Playoff spot. With the U.S. Open on deck, it’s easy to see why most have already started to look ahead.
This week’s course is unique compared to most week’s on TOUR. The fairways are tough to hit AND the greens are tough to hit. Ironically, it’s usually one or the other. Hard fairways means you better be accurate off the tee OR great at scoring out of the rough. Tough greens to hit means you better be tossin’ darts into the greens or be a great scrambler.
Before we get into players to watch this week, we have a DFS SITE TO WATCH: Fantasy Aces. They announced their golf product launch and are throwing a free contest in celebration this week. Give it a try this week as a warmup for next week’s U.S. Open. The first week of pricing is TIGHT, so fans of now-extinct DraftStreet will love this structure. Use the banner below to get started today!
Players to Watch
Dustin Johnson… He’s the man to beat this week (and likely next week). He won here in his debut and has two more solid finishes since. Plug and play him this week in any format that doesn’t have a salary attached. In those formats, play him generously.
Billy Horschel… He’s hot which means you keep riding him. He’s had success here and the entire FedExCup Playoffs last year. He must LOVE FedEx!
Shawn Stefani… Has been in contention here before and declared that TPC Southwind fits his eye. I like the sounds of that! It pairs nicely with his season form, making him a deadly option in all formats.
Scott Stallings… This is a home game for S-Squared as he grew up playing junior events on this course. His professional results have been great as well, so throw him out as a sleeper this weekk.
Lucas Glover… He can’t putt but his tee-to-green game is hard to match. With small greens, he may just be able to survive some of his putting woes and grab a top 20.
Ryan Palmer… He may get overlooked this week by the likes of DJ, Phil, Webb, and Horschel, but he holds just as much firepower as any of them when he gets things rolling. He can lap the field on any given round, but he can also give his fair share of strokes back. It will be a matter of minimizing the negative this week, but his upside is certainly there.
20-20 Club… Rose did the 20/20 club well last week but couldn’t close the deal. This week, Phil Mickelson holds the torch. He’s gained 21.44 strokes at TPC Southwind since 2010 and 27.05 strokes since the Masters.
John Merrick… Hard fairways don’t scare him…because he doesn’t miss fairways. He’s finding form so trot him out with confidence this week.
Boo Weekley and David Toms… Both are Southern boys that love this event since people around these parts can actually understand what they are saying. They are also both fairways snipers. Give them a Southern boost this week.
Stewart Cink… He’s a veteran that knows how to grind. That comes in handy on a tough course like this.
St. Jude Classic Cheatsheet… I love hearing about the success people are having with the weekly DraftKings cheatsheet so check it out. Total Cash Game Record to-date: 68-42 (61.8%).
Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks. This is includes guys that fit the stat profile, golfers that are in good form, course history, recommended cash game targets and more!
Top 25 for the 2015 FedEx St. Jude Classic
1. Dustin Johnson
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Ryan Palmer
4. Webb Simpson
5. Billy Horschel
6. Brooks Koepka
7. Harris English
8. Shawn Stefani
9. George McNeill
10. Russell Knox
11. Jamie Donaldson
12. Jerry Kelly
13. Charles Howell III
14. Jason Bohn
15. Boo Weekley
16. Brian Harman
17. Nick Watney
18. Will Wilcox
19. Matt Every
20. Kevin Chappell
21. Cameron Tringale
22. Jason Kokrak
23. Zac Blair
24. Scott Pinckney
25. William McGirt
June 9, 2015
FedEx St. Jude Classic DraftKings Picks
The Memorial churned out another longshot winner. That’s now two weeks in a row, Bowditch followed by Lingmerth. Colin Drew AKA drewby417 AKA DFSTEAM won the Future of Fantasy Golf Tour event last week. Congratulations to you, Colin. It was just his third start of the TOUR but he’s now on top. Let’s see if he can stay on top or if regression stares him in the eye.
Full FoF Tour standings at the bottom for anyone with 5+ starts or a win so keep playing to show up. The next prize will be given away to the winner of the U.S. Open event and then after that it will go to the first member that reaches 10 top 5s. There are plenty of members with 8 currently, so it should be a good race!
Now let’s have look at DraftKings pricing this week and see what we can muster up. The full fantasy preview for the Memorial will come tomorrow, as always.
Form Fitting
Jerry Kelly ($8800)… 30th-10th-17th-22nd-18th
George McNeill ($8700)… 13th-5th-28th-17th-12th-44th
Phil Mickelson ($12000)… 65th-4th-119th-2nd
Scott Brown ($7000)… 72nd-34th-33rd-13th-30th-36th-37th
Brendon de Jonge ($7600)… 72nd-22nd-109th-63rd-22nd-18th
Rod Pampling ($5600)… 22nd
Rod Pampling? Talk about a throwback. The first five listed above have gained the most strokes over the field since the Masters so they are swinging the clubs well (relative to this weak field) and then we threw in Pampling to fit the salary constraints. Others in form include: Jason Bohn, Cameron Tringale, Chesson Hadley, Russell Knox, DJ, Steven Bowditch, Shawn Stefani, and David Hearn.
Course Horse-tory
Camilo Villegas ($7600)… 11th-10th-77th-3rd-8th-29th-18th
Charles Howell III ($6800)… 28th-39th-27th-3rd-44th-88th-112th
Dustin Johnson ($13000)… 24th-10th-1st
Carl Pettersson ($7700)… 3rd-8th-143rd
John Merrick ($6600)… 63rd-63rd-2nd-11th-53rd-73rd
Boo Weekley ($7700)… 46th-27th-27th-32nd-53rd-77th-4th
The course horses are very unappealing when in terms of reliable talent and/or current form. I would advise against a raw course form team because the talent level there is scary low. Not haunted-house scary, just anxiety-inducing scary. Some other course horses include Ben Crane, Retief Goosen, Robert Allenby, Scott Stallings, Phil Mickelson, Davis Love III, and Ryan Palmer. Yuck.
Handpicked Value Plays
Charles Howell III ($6,800) … He’s priced about $2,000 lower than you’d expect in a weak field like this. Sure, he’s being playing mediocre golf, but he’s still in the top tier of talent when looking at the entire field. Should be a cash-game staple this week.
Austin Cook ($6,400) … While CH3 is a cash-game special, Cook should be reserved for GPPs only. If someone tells you there is no difference between cash and gpp plays, then have them play Cook in a cash lineup. The fact is that Cook finished top 15 here last year and has another top 15 in two tries this season. There is no denying his upside but he should not be relied upon. High risk, high reward right here.
Russell Knox ($7,800) … The Scot is a mystery this week as he should profile perfectly for this venue but he’s lost 9.35 strokes in 8 career TPC Southwind rounds. That should be enough to keep his ownership lower. The fact that he’s returning to the venue, lets us know that he’s probably just as baffled as we are and wants a chance to right the ship. Sometimes the fourth time is the charm, and that may be the case this week as Knox finally figures this venue out.
Free PGA DraftKings Contest for New Users
Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour Standings
Comment below with your DraftKings username if you need a invite to this week’s Future of Fantasy Golf Tour contest.
June 3, 2015
Memorial Tournament Fantasy Preview
Steven Bowditch, also known as The Caterpillar surprised Fantasy Golf Nation by winning last week’s Byron Nelson. Nobody actually calls him that, but its easy to notice the giant caterpillar above his eyes. Luckily, Texas is out of the equation for the rest of the year and now we head to the Midwest/East depending on who you ask. Ohio is for lovers… and also golfers.
The course is Muirfield Village Golf Club which is known as Jack’s Place (Nicklaus). It’s a par 72 course that stretches out just under 7,400 yards. Longer than average, but not lengthy, per se. The main things to know about the course is the generous fairways and lightning fast greens.
With lightning fast greens, it’s easy to make the comparison to Augusta National, and for good reason. Jack (yeah we’re on a first-name basis) was definitely inspired by Augusta when setting up this layout. In fact, when I ran the numbers Augusta National had a 0.50 correlation to performance here at the Memorial. To put that in perspective, the most correlated stat, strokes gained:tee-to-green, comes in quite a bit lower at a 0.32 correlation. If you need a tiebreaker, have a hard look at past performance at The Masters.
Check out and the for additional information.
Players to Watch
Jordan Spieth… The Longhorn walked out of Texas without a win but he’s still playing top-class golf. With the correlation to Augusta National, he must be top of mind for gamers this week. We saw what he’s done to Augusta over the past two trips.
Rickie Fowler… Returning from Europe after carding a pair of snowmen. Now he’s back in the U.S. and will continue his “not overrated” Tour. I look for his strong play to continue and for him to be right in the thick of things again this week.
Keegan Bradley… Delivered a top 25 last week as a course horse. This week he’s the opposite as his best finish here is a T37. It’s possible that he finally figures things out, but the safe bet is to avoid Keegan this week.
Ryan Moore… People are turned off by his form as of late but it’s really due to lack of playing rather than consistent letdowns. Luckily he always turns up for this event, proven by his eight top 40s in nine tries. Love Moore this week.
Jason Day… The home course hero has yet to deliver any goods to the people of Dublin. As a member of Muirfield Village you would expect him to have at least one top 25, but he doesn’t. His best is T27 and he also faces vertigo issues that have drained his energy. Fantastic contrarian play this week as he may finally pull through now that his expectation are at a minimum.
Phil Mickelson… Lefty is finding his groove just like Stella did years ago. He still has the U.S. Open at the top of mind, but he would love to be peaking just at the right time so look for his best efforts this week on his way to a top 15.
Tiger Woods… It’s so hard to tell which Tiger will show up. Every time he returns we hear roars about how Tiger is looking great but he just hasn’t shown that for a few years now. I am tentatively optimistic.
Kevin Na… He’s the man who just keeps piling up top 20s. Ride him while he’s hot.
20-20 Club… The combination of course history + recent form continues to be deadly. Last week DJ was making things interesting at the top before spoiling his dinner with a quad-bogey. Still an impressive finish for our 20-20 club member. This week the lone member of the club is Justin Rose, and he’s actually a part of the 30/30 club! He’s gained 31.044 strokes over the last eight weeks of stroke-play and 34.893 strokes here at Muirfield Village since 2010. Bingo!
Patrick Rodgers… His last chance for romance, or Special Temporary Membership should I say. Motivation will be on his side this week but the same could be said about his last two starts. Worth a flier.
Kyle Reifers… Hat tip to @bullwire if you know him as he tipped me off on Reifers connection to Dublin. He’s got local ties and also put together a top 25 here in 2012. Good punt option.
Stewart Cink… You can’t teach an old dog new tricks but old dogs often repeat the tricks they already know. That’s the case this week as Cink is 18-for-19 at this event with his lone missed cut coming in 1997. He also has a win in Ohio on his resume and a win on a Nicklaus design on his resume. Give him a hard look when trying to save salary this week.
Tommy Fleetwood … I love Tommy Boy as a contrarian GPP play on DraftKings this week. Who in their right mind would select Fleetwood at this event over guys in his price range such as Ryan Moore, Ben Martin, Kevin Kisner, Brooks Koepka, or Brendon Todd? His ownership will be rock bottom by default due to his overpricing. That said, he has top 10 potential this week and that makes him very, very sneaky sir.
Memorial Cheatsheet… I love hearing about the success people are having with the weekly DraftKings cheatsheet so check it out.
Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks. This is includes guys that fit the stat profile, golfers that are in good form, course history, recommended cash game targets and more!
Top 25 for the 2015 Memorial
1. Justin Rose
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Rickie Fowler
5. Kevin Na
6. Phil Mickelson
7. Jim Furyk
8. Dustin Johnson
9. Jason Day
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Ryan Moore
12. Bill Haas
13. Brooks Koepka
14. Steve Stricker
15. Chris Kirk
16. Justin Thomas
17. Chris Kirk
18. Russell Henley
19. Kevin Kisner
20. Ben Martin
21. Rory Sabbatini
22. Keegan Bradley
23. Gary Woodland
24. Graham DeLaet
25. Russell Knox
June 2, 2015
Memorial Fantasy Golf Happy Hour
Joel Harrington and Josh Culp breakdown this week’s Memorial.
We take a deep dive into the DraftKings salaries and go over Yahoo! picks as well. Enjoy the listen!
–New users who try DraftKings can get 100% match on deposit and a free $3 voucher… Try It Out Today
–Try Victiv Fantasy Golf for a unique twist on the game! Check it out now!
–DraftDay always provides a fun experience with their scoring system. Draft Today
–Fantasy Feud offers a strong offering that usually brings out the best fantasy golfers. You must pick 10 golfers, so the overall skill is increased, in my opinion. Give them a look
Joel Harrington writes for 4DeepGolfBlog.
Josh Culp writes for Future of Fantasy and Rotoworld.com.
Memorial Tournament DraftKings Picks
Congrats to Rossadamlee who took down last week’s Future of Fantasy DraftKings Golf Tour event with a score of 516.5, beating second place by 18 points. That earns him the prize of One Dozen Birdie Balls. A great practice tool when you can’t get to the course or even the range. Email me at futureoffantasy@gmail.com with your shipping details.
This week’s Memorial Tournament on DraftKings features a three dollar entry event where the winner goes home $100,000 richer. Sign me up.
Full FoF Tour standings at the bottom for anyone with 5+ starts so keep playing to show up. Now let’s have look at DraftKings pricing this week and see what we can muster up. The full fantasy preview for the Memorial will come tomorrow, as always.
Form Fitting
Jordan Spieth ($12500)… 30th-2nd-103rd-11th-1st-1st
Kevin Kisner ($8200)… 5th-38th-2nd-28th-2nd
Justin Thomas ($7200)… 55th-7th-24th-12th-11th
Pat Perez ($7500)… 5th-20th-17th-26th-11th
George McNeill ($6700)… 5th-28th-17th-12th-44th
Scott Brown ($7100)… 34th-33rd-13th-30th-36th-37th-37th
George McNeill is rarely someone you want to trust, especially on this track where he’s just 3-for-7 with a T30 being his best. It’s an easy swap though, and some other guys in form to target include: Justin Rose, Pat Perez, Phil Mickelson, Kevin Na, Russell Henley, and Keegan Bradley.
Course Horse-tory
Matt Kuchar ($11000)… 15th-1st-2nd-8th-5th-10th
Bo Van Pelt ($6400)… 19th-21st-13th-13th-3rd-87th-30th
Justin Rose ($11600)… 77th-8th-8th-74th-1st-105th-2nd
Steve Stricker ($7100)… 6th-50th-1st-17th-27th
Ryan Moore ($8100)… 19th-13th-38th-22nd-5th-105th-10th
Ben Curtis ($5800)… 6th-41st-77th-13th-28th-41st-46th
Well, how about that. A course history team I actually like! There are some wildcards in play here, but it’s just enough of a combination of safe and risky to work out nicely in a GPP. Some other course superstars include: Charl Schwartzel, Stewart Cink, Rickie Fowler, Jim Furyk, Bill Haas, and Tiger Tiger Woods.
Handpicked Value Plays
Justin Thomas ($7,200) … DraftKings pricing continues to surprise as salaries like this just weren’t available last year. Now we seemingly get a “gift” each week. I think Thomas fits that mold this week. He’s one of the hottest golfer’s on TOUR and he due for a win sooner rather than later. Finished T37 in his debut here last year and his game has improved leaps and bounds this year.
Brooks Koepka ($8,000) … I was a little hesitant to pull the trigger on Koepka last week but still ended up with him on about 20% of my GPP entries. After last week, I would say his form is back and he’s good to go in GPPs and even Cash games this week. He’s killed Jack Nicklaus courses on the European Tour (Omega European Masters & BMW Masters) so I’m willing to give him a go his first time around Muirfield Village.
Rory Sabbatini ($7,200) … One of my most hated players on TOUR but I don’t discriminate when it comes to fantasy golf. With five top 20s in his last six Memorial starts, I’d say he should be a feature of your GPPs this week. His tendency to crap the bed on occasion makes him easy to avoid for cash-game rosters.
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May 27, 2015
AT&T Byron Nelson Championship Fantasy Preview
Weather is casuing havoc all across Texas so it’s no surprise that this week’s Byron Nelson field has seen a boatload of WDs before the tournament even begins. Keep your phones off silent in case they run out of alternates to use.
The course this week is TPC Four Seasons and it’s a par 70, on the shorter side just under 7,200 yards but it will play much longer this week with the soaked conditions. Guys that like to avoid the wind and play the Texas roll here in the past (cough, cough, Leishman) will have to devise a new plan of attack this week.
For me, that takes course history down a notch and gives a big boost to bombers. Have a look at driving distance, carry distance, and % of drives > 300 yards. The usual stats like strokes gained: tee-to-green and par 4 scoring are still in play.
Lift, clean, and place will surely be in place. In the past, they’ve played under preferred lies here during the 1st and 2nd rounds of 2013 and also the first round of 2011. Have a look at those rounds if you need a tiebreaker this week.
Check out last year’s preview and the Fantasy Golfanac for additional information.
Players to Watch
Dustin Johnson… DJ is long and has great success at this venue. He tends to have continued success on tracks that set up well for him. With Day out of the picture, DJ has a clear path to victory…or at least a top 10.
Graham DeLaet… His back has been known to act up so any rain delays could be a problem as he could tighten up during the stretch. His form is also middling this year. Other than that he’s a great play! Seriously, that sounded pessimistic but I really do like GDL in GPPs this week.
Keegan Bradley… If you’re saving DJ for the U.S. Open in your One-and-Done leagues, then have a look at Keegan. He posted a 60 here while playing lift, clean, and place. He’s also lapped the field in both other LCP rounds here at TPC Four Seasons. He should eat up the soft course this week.
Charles Howell III… Posted a pair of bogey-free rounds last year on his way to a podium finish. Very impressive given the difficulty of this venue. Give him a good look this week as he’s long off the tee as well.
Ryan Palmer… Played in all three preferred lies rounds I mentioned in the intro and posted scores 2.5 strokes over the field in all three rounds. Proceed with confidence even after he let us all down last week on his home course.
Sangmoon Bae… He moved to Irving after winning here in 2013. He missed the cut in last year’s defense but that will just keep the scent off him in DraftKings. Good GPP play.
Tony Finau… The weekly wife pick this week, and I’m also onboard as Finau is flourishing in his rookie season. Keep riding him, especially on venues like this week’s where distance is at a premium.
Hunter Mahan… The Dallas native is a local but his course history doesn’t tell that story. It makes you wonder if this event would even be on his calendar every year if it wasn’t so close to home. Mahan is fade for me.
20-20 Club… ZJ pulled through last week with a pretty solid week (T19) and this week the 20/20 club has one member, it’s another Johnson. This week Dustin Johnson holds the title here as he’s gained 27.188 strokes at the course since 2010 and 20.471 strokes since the Valero.
Patrick Rodgers… This guy is long! Staying in Spieth’s house this week with Justin Thomas, let’s see if he can draft off their success. His length and recent podium finish lead me to believe this might be the week he gets back in the top 25.
Brandon Hagy… Did someone say bomber? The youngster led the Pebble Beach field in driving distance. That field included Beljan, DJ, and JB Holmes. Bombs away! Super sleeper, darkhorse alert. My favorite place to play him this week is Victiv as a punt as the two lowest scores get wiped from your team. Lot of upside here.
Boo Weekley… Boo is nursing a sore back and wouldn’t be surprising to see him WD before or during this event. Fade.
Byron Nelson Cheatsheet… I’ve released a handy-dandy cheatsheet for this week on DraftKings. Full disclosure: The cash game lineup flopped last week (GPP lineup still cashed). Full Disclosure: Total record of cash game lineup is still at 56-34 (62%). This is based off the 10 games per week I enter with it (9 Head-to-Heads and one 50/50).
Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks. This is includes guys that fit the stat profile, golfers that are in good form, course history, recommended cash game targets and more!
Top 25 for the 2015 Byron Nelson
1. Dustin Johnson
2. Keegan Bradley
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Ryan Palmer
5. Gary Woodland
6. Justin Thomas
7. Charles Howell III
8. Morgan Hoffmann
9. Matt Kuchar
10. Daniel Berger
11. Marc Leishman
12. Jimmy Walker
13. Sangmoon Bae
14. Tony Finau
15. Russell Henley
16. Charley Hoffman
17. Harris English
18. Brooks Koepka
19. Graham DeLaet
20. Danny Lee
21. Charl Schwartzel
22. Brandt Snedeker
23. Carlos Ortiz
24. Brendan Steele
25. Scott Piercy


