Nate Silver's Blog, page 21
September 20, 2021
Politics Podcast: Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary?
Last Thursday, Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6th. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection. They also debate whether CNN’s new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling and give some final takeaways from California’s recall election.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
September 16, 2021
Do Voters Want Democrats Or Republicans In Congress?
Are Democrats Or Republicans Winning The Race For Congress?
An updating estimate of the generic ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in a congressional election.
DATESPOLLSTERGRADESAMPLEWEIGHTREPUBLICANDEMOCRATLEADERADJUSTED LEADERMAY 27-30YouGovB1,266RV0.7633%39%Democrat +6Democrat +8MAY 25-30Morning Consult1,991RV0.5439%43%Democrat +4Democrat +7MAY 20-23YouGovB1,266RV0.6536%38%Democrat +2Democrat +4MAY 18-22Morning Consult1,938RV0.4037%41%Democrat +4Democrat +7MAY 13-16YouGovB1,293RV0.6033%40%Democrat +7Democrat +9MAY 12-14Public Policy PollingB+692RV1.0238%49%Democrat +11Democrat +11MAY 12-14Morning Consult2,001RV0.3635%42%Democrat +7Democrat +10MAY 9-11Morning Consult1,731RV0.3037%42%Democrat +5Democrat +8MAY 6-9YouGovB1,278RV0.5835%40%Democrat +5Democrat +7MAY 4-9Quinnipiac UniversityA-1,078RV1.7338%54%Democrat +16Democrat +13Show more polls
KEY
= NEW
A = ALL ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
V = VOTERS
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.
Polls listed here are those that ask either which party’s candidate a respondent would vote for in his or her district or which party the respondent would prefer control Congress.
By Aaron Bycoffe, Dhrumil Mehta and Nate Silver. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
September 13, 2021
September 7, 2021
Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Jennifer Merolla, a political science professor at UC-Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center, reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible right now. CalMatters politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and vice president of Political Data Inc. Paul Mitchell also join to discuss the current state of the California gubernatorial recall election.
Politics Podcast: How Politics Have Changed Since The Days After 9/11
U.S. politics have changed a lot in the 20 years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which defined a generation of American life. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, University of California, Riverside, political science professor Jennifer Merolla and Pew Research Center research associate Hannah Hartig reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of the 2001 attacks and discuss whether a similar consensus is possible in America’s current political environment. In the second segment of the podcast, CalMatters politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to talk about California’s gubernatorial recall election.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
August 30, 2021
2021-22 NBA Player Projections
Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
August 19, 2021
How Climate Models Work
Earlier this month, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate for policymakers where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. They unpack the findings in the report and discuss how climate models work.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
August 16, 2021
August 10, 2021
Why Has Biden’s Approval Rating Fallen?
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses why Biden’s favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEight’s Redistricting Tracker.
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