Nate Silver's Blog, page 20
October 25, 2021
October 18, 2021
Do You Buy That … Limiting Abortion Access Will Mobilize Democrats At The Polls?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver breaks down public opinion on abortion legislation and what it will mean for the midterms on ABC’s “This Week.”
October 14, 2021
2021-22 NBA Predictions
How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our CARMELO player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Read more »
Design and development by Jay Boice, Rachael Dottle, Ella Koeze and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Additional contributions by Neil Paine. Illustration by Elias Stein.
October 7, 2021
Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID, According To The Former FDA Chief
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb joins to discuss how unprepared the U.S. was for COVID-19 and how he thinks the nation can prepare for future pandemics.
Politics Podcast: How Government Can Prepare For The Next Pandemic
Over a year and a half ago, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Since then, an estimated 767,000 people in the U.S. have died from the disease, and 120.2 million have been infected. Though vaccination rates have increased and new cases have decreased in recent weeks, COVID-19 continues to affect the lives of people across the country.
In a new book, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a Pfizer board member and former head of the Food and Drug Administration, argues that the U.S. was unable to control the spread of the novel coronavirus because of structural failures, and offers recommendations on how to prepare for future pandemics. In this episode of the Politics podcast, he joins FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and Maggie Koerth to discuss why the U.S. was so unprepared and how much the country’s response to the public health crisis has improved since the onset of the pandemic.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
October 4, 2021
September 29, 2021
2021 College Football Predictions
How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Oct. 30, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the AP Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 20,000 simulations of the remaining season. Full methodology »
Design and development by Jay Boice and Rachael Dottle. Statistical model by Nate Silver.
September 27, 2021
Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed?
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, and discusses how likely it is that Democrats will get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity.
Politics Podcast: How To Poll People About Their Political Identity
There’s a lot going on in Congress this week, and much of it is existential. The House is scheduled to vote on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill on Thursday. But some Democratic lawmakers said they wouldn’t vote for the bill without an agreement on a multi-trillion-dollar partisan social programs bill. At the same time, the U.S. risks defaulting on its debt as Republicans refuse to help raise the debt ceiling. Oh, and the government might shut down by week’s end, too.
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and how likely they think it will be for Democrats to get their agenda passed on both spending plans, immigration reform and voting rights. They also discuss what the best use of polling is when surveying people about the ways they identify themselves politically.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
September 21, 2021
GOP Critics Of Trump’s ‘Big Lie’ Are Struggling To Win Reelection
Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump after his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their reelection bids and debate whether CNN’s new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling.
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