Thom S. Rainer's Blog, page 11

Five Reasons Why 2025 Will Be a Pivotal Year for Many Churches

Dad told me they were tornado clouds.

I was a kid in the 1960s when he uttered those words. I was too young to realize that we might be facing a potential threat. The technology that could confirm his prediction did not exist. I have vague memories of the clouds having a different tint than typical clouds, but nothing else pointed toward the possibility that a tornado was on the way.

Dad was right. The clouds produced more than one tornado. We were fortunate that the tornadoes did not get too close to my hometown. But I will not forget his warning that a major storm was on the way.

Storm Clouds or New Opportunities?

There seems to be a convergence of issues that could have a profound effect on churches in 2025. Frankly, I could name at least a dozen issues, but these five seem to be the most likely. Their magnitude could be significant as well.

As I will note, these developments are not necessarily storm clouds. On the contrary, there are some potential God-given opportunities for wise church leaders to embrace.

Greater receptivity to the gospel by Gen Z. Those young adults and teenagers born between 1997 and 2012 comprise the group commonly known as Gen Z. Our research at Church Answers, as well as work done by Ryan Burge and others, at least implies that Gen Z is more receptive to the gospel. I cannot overstate how great this opportunity is. Over a year ago, we introduced The Hope Initiative to help churches move from being inwardly focused to being outwardly focused. Over 1,500 congregations thus far embraced the 30-day challenge. Many of the churches reached young adults and older teens for the first time in years. The words of Jesus in Matthew 9:37-38 are still powerfully relevant today: “When he saw the crowds, he had compassion on them, because they were confused and helpless, like sheep without a shepherd. He said to his disciples, ‘The harvest is great, but the workers are few. So pray to the Lord who is in charge of the harvest; ask him to send more workers into his fields’” (NLT). Approximately 15,000 churches in America will no longer be able to pay a full-time pastor. Of the 375,000 congregations in the U. S., we estimate that four percent of them will no longer have the funds to compensate a full-time pastor. This shift is enormous, and it might be more significant. Since over one-half of churches today do not have the budget to pay full-time pastors, we can easily see the part-time pastor model becoming the dominant model. The term “bivocational pastor” begins to disappear. That term needs to go away because it is no longer relevant. “Bi” means “two,”  and many part-time pastors have more than two jobs. The more accurate term is “co-vocational,” which is a broad term with many possible meanings. For example, I am friends with a person who serves as a pastor of two congregations while holding down a full-time job in the business world. He is actually closer to a modern-day manifestation of the circuit rider pastor who rode on horseback to serve different churches. Churches should prepare for this transition to the part-time pastor model. It is already the model in a majority of churches. It will soon become the dominant model. The median time a church will have between pastors will be longer than 18 months. Indeed, a growing number of churches will do without a pastor for two years or more. The role of the interim pastor will be even more critical in 2025. And frankly, denominations and networks must be prepared to resource co-vocational churches, circuit-rider churches, and interim churches to be relevant to the congregations they serve. The day of churches with a full-time pastor serving in traditional-model churches is going away soon. About 15,000 churches will close. Many of these churches held on tenaciously, but the number of congregations facing imminent closure has grown. For the first time in modern church history, 15,000 of the churches will cease to exist in a period of one year. Notice that we are projecting that 15,000 churches will close and that 15,000 will move from full-time pastors to part-time pastors. Those 30,000 churches represent about one out of twelve existing churches. The change is dramatic.

Though the challenges are significant, I remain an obnoxious optimist about the future of congregations in America. Let me hear your perspective in the comments below. What do you think about the five issues I noted? What would you add to the list of significant changes?

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Five Powerful Prayers for Your Christmas Eve Service

Most churches will have more guests during a Christmas Eve service than in any other service throughout the year.

What will you say to God with all these new people listening?

As pastors, we have the unique opportunity in a Christmas Eve service to lead our congregations—and numerous guests from the community—in prayer.

These five prayers can serve as guides, helping to set a joyful tone and celebratory atmosphere for the birth of Jesus.

Prayer 1: Open with a prayer of anticipation for the Savior’s birth. Build a sense of expectation and readiness. This prayer should invite everyone to encounter the wonder of Christmas. Jesus, the Messiah, has arrived.

Begin your prayer, “Christmas is more than a holiday tradition. It is a time to worship with anticipation. God sent the Baby Jesus to remedy all wrongs. We celebrate His first coming, and we anticipate His second coming.”

Prayer 2: Offer a prayer of thanksgiving for the gift of Jesus. Focus on gratitude as you pray. This prayer helps shift the congregation’s focus from material gifts to the ultimate gift: Jesus. Expressing gratitude encourages the church to remember that Christmas is about receiving God’s love and showing it to others.

Begin your prayer, “Only one gift ultimately matters. Grace is unmerited favor from an unobligated Giver. We worship God’s lavish gift to humanity, the Christ-child who has come to save people from their sins and give life to all who receive His grace.”

Prayer 3: Ask the congregation to join you in a prayer for peace. Reflect on Jesus as the Prince of Peace. Have two or three short moments of silence during your prayer where people can pray with you. This prayer invites the congregation to leave behind the world’s worries and focus on the peace that only Christ brings. As you pray, mention those who may be carrying burdens or stresses during the holiday season and ask the Holy Spirit to comfort them.

Begin your prayer, “Prince of Peace, hope originates with You. As we remember Your humble entrance into our world tonight, we ask that Your peace dwells within us, around us, and through us. Help us to be peacemakers, to bring light into the darkness, and to love our neighbors as ourselves.”

Prayer 4: Emphasize God’s love in a prayer for unity. A Christmas Eve service is the perfect time to emphasize how Jesus calls us to be active agents of good in this world. This prayer reminds everyone that we are not just a gathering of individuals but a family brought together and unified by Christ’s love.

Begin your prayer, “Father, believers are united today by the birth of Your Son, Jesus. Help us to love each other as You have loved us. Make this love overflow to our neighbors and anyone. You place in front of us. Fill this gathering with the warmth of fellowship and a deep sense of belonging to Your family. May the love born in a manger continue to grow in each of us, drawing us closer to You.”

Prayer 5: Conclude with a prayer pointing to God’s presence. Contentment is found when you seek and delight in God’s presence. Close your Christmas Eve service by pointing to God’s renewal. While we do not know the future, we can trust God’s presence with us every day of the new year.

Begin your prayer, “Lord, as we celebrate Your birth, we look forward with hope to the year ahead. We don’t know what it will bring, but we trust that You will be with us each step of the way. May the joy and wonder of Christmas stick with us beyond this night, reminding us that You are Emmanuel, God with us. Help us to walk in faith, to serve with love, and to live in hope.”

Those who are detached from the church will often return for sentimental reasons on Christmas Eve. Family members who never go to church will capitulate and attend. For most churches, approximately one-third to half of attendees will be guests at a Christmas Eve service. Make sure you pray powerfully and remind everyone of the true meaning of Christ’s birth.

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How the Rise of Evangelical Distrust Is Making Evangelism Harder

The most important book written in political science in my lifetime is Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community by Robert Putnam. It’s a thick volume with hundreds of thousands of words and dozens of graphs that point the reader to a central conclusion–Americans aren’t joining and participating in organizations anymore.

The book’s title comes from a simple data exercise where Putnam tracked the number of people in bowling leagues over nearly 100 years. What he found was that folks were quite simply bowling alone now. He also showed similar trends in membership in groups like the Elks, the Moose, the VFW, and the Boy Scouts. What worried Putnam the most was not just the decline in participation in these groups but the implications for society. He popularized the term “social capital,” which has become part of the lexicon of social science. Put succinctly, social capital is the

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Why Are 30% of Your “Active” Church Members Absent on a Given Sunday?

Are any of you old enough to remember “perfect attendance awards”? 

It’s been decades since I have been in a church that provides such recognition. It’s quite the feat. It means a church member has shown up for 52 or 53 consecutive Sundays in a calendar or church year. 

Sam Rainer began writing about attendance frequency over 15 years ago. His research has become a staple fixture in our understanding of the behavioral patterns of church members. In fact, he has demonstrated on multiple occasions that a decline in attendance frequency is typically the number one reason for the overall decline in a church. 

When “Active” Members Are No-Shows 

We have also noted that in most churches, a person who attends church at least twice a month is considered an active member. In fact, many leaders in a church will attend only twice a month. In other words, they are absent half the time, but they still qualify as leaders. 

In a recent discussion at Church Answers Central, our 24/7 church leader forum, our participants engaged in a conversation about the “30% factor.” It is a number that represents the number of core or active members who will be absent on a given Sunday. It was a fascinating discussion. I rarely see or read about the attendance patterns of the most active members in a church. 

Delving into the 30% factor for “Active” Members 

While I cannot empirically confirm the accuracy of the 30% factor, I believe the number is close based on our consultations and interactions with church leaders. After reading the conversation at Church Answers Central, I wanted to know why this factor is true. Why do our most active members fail to show up on a given Sunday? 

Here are the five most common reasons for the 30% factor. It attempts to explain why three out of ten of your church’s active members will be absent on a given Sunday. 

Low expectations by the church. Most churches at least implicitly hold a low view of church attendance. They fail to communicate the biblical and vital importance of the gathered church. Instead of embracing the high priority of attendance, they relegate it to just another activity on the week’s calendar. I strongly encourage leaders to include faithful attendance in their church membership classes. In fact, based upon the New Testament pattern of the gathered church, I am not shy about advocating that members should attend every Sunday unless providentially hindered.Low priority of church members. According to the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average absentee rate for full-time employees is 0.8%. That’s less than one percent! Employees show up because they want to keep their jobs or improve their careers. Their commitment might be economically motivated, but it is a priority. Fewer than one percent of employees miss work, but 30 percent of “active” church members miss church. Note that I place quotation marks around “active” in this article. I am not convinced that many of these core members are really active members.Challenges for older church members. American congregations are aging faster than the general population. On a given Sunday, an older person might not be able to get out of the house due to weather or sickness. These churches with older church members can expect one out of ten elderly members to be absent on a given Sunday due to legitimate reasons. This reality will grow since the median age of church members continues to rise.The COVID factor. Most churches were closed for a season during the pandemic. Some were closed for several months. During the quarantine, church members became accustomed to staying home on Sundays. They got out of the good habit of church attendance. Some of them rationalized that attendance was not that important. Their world did not collapse when they were mandated not to gather for worship. The COVID factor affected our churches’ most committed members as well. That mindset still lingers.Failure to hold church leaders accountable. I am convinced that this factor is more significant than most church leaders realize. When those in our churches in leadership positions fail to demonstrate truly committed attendance, their example affects the rest of the church. I jokingly say that a person who attends only half of the time is defined as an elder or deacon. But I am not really joking. It is one thing to ignore the low frequency of attendance of church members. But we must hold leaders accountable. They have no business being in a church leadership role unless they attend almost every Sunday.

Legalism at Work? 

Is it possible that we can get so strict about attendance that it becomes a legalistic issue in our churches? I guess it’s possible, but I see very few churches being in danger of advocating attendance to an extreme. The greater danger is that churches have not communicated biblical expectations of gathering every Sunday. No-show church members have become an accepted reality. 

What are absentee patterns in your church? How often do your most committed members attend? Does your church have clear expectations about the attendance pattern of church leaders? Is the 30% factor at work in your church? I would love to hear from you.

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Why I Started Studying Spiritual Warfare, and How My Story Might Help You as a Church Leader

I’ve studied and written about spiritual warfare for more than thirty years now. In fact, you can study the topic with me through the Church Answers “Church Equip” course, “Engaging in Spiritual Warfare.” In some ways, that short course reflects the core of what I’ve taught over the years. 

What I don’t always talk about when I’m teaching this topic, however, is why I started studying warfare in the first place. 

My father drank when I was quite young, and he had a violent, explosive temper for many years. My first memory is a time when my dad was angry at my mom for being at the store too long, and he destroyed the bottom floor of our home. Now more than sixty years later, I can still walk you through that house and show you the upheaval as if it happened yesterday. Every detail remains etched in my mind. Even my Christian conversion at age 13 did not erase that memory—or many others, for that matter. 

Indeed, more than once I stood between my mom and dad—both of them towering over me when I was younger—hoping to shield my mom as she shook and cried in fear under the barrage of my dad’s verbal assaults. I was equally afraid, but I felt a compulsion to somehow guard my mom. In fact, I lived in dreaded fear of my dad until I was big enough to stand up to him (or more likely, just avoid him)—but the fears of my young years then turned to hatred in my teen years. 

Again, though, my conversion at age 13 didn’t free me immediately from those feelings; it just left me confused under what I would later learn was Holy Spirit conviction. It would be more than 15 years later before I found victory over that anguish. That’s where the topic of spiritual warfare entered my story. 

Healing began for me unexpectedly one day when I read a Bible verse I had read many times before, but didn’t see its significance until then:

“For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the cosmic powers of this darkness, against evil, spiritual forces in the heavens” (Eph 6:12).

It seemed as if this text leapt off the page to me, teaching me that my dad was not my enemy; in fact, people in general are not the enemy. Rather, there is a supernatural enemy who wanted to keep me afraid, angry, and unforgiving. The father of lies (John 8:44) sought to keep me in bondage to my enduring bitterness toward my earthly father. 

On the other hand, realizing who the real enemy was became the first step toward God’s healing my anguish toward my dad – so much so that I found it much easier to pray for his salvation until God finally saved him when he was 71 years old. To God’s glory, He so transformed my dad that we almost didn’t know the new man who hugged us, told us he loved us, and exhibited joy and peace. God had miraculously freed my dad from the domain of darkness (Col 1:13-14).

How, then, does that story help me today? 

I pray more. When you know a very real spiritual enemy wants to deceive, distract, and destroy you and your family, you’ll pray more. You’ll learn to fight spiritual battles from your knees.I love lost people much more since recognizing they are “blinded by the god of this age” (2 Cor 4:3-4). They’re caught in the same trap I was caught in prior to God’s saving me. No matter who they are or what they’ve done, I want them to know His redeeming, freeing grace.I handle interpersonal conflict in the church differently. If people aren’t my enemy, I can genuinely love them even when I must confront them. I don’t want the enemy to win in any of our lives.I forgive others much more readily. All of us are responsible for our actions, despite our battles with the world, the flesh, and the devil (Eph 2:1-3); so, accountability and repentance really do matter. Still, it’s easier for me to forgive others when I realize we’re all facing the same enemy.I train believers differently when I equip them to do evangelism. They’re engaging in the war when they take the light of the gospel into the darkness, and I want them to be prepared. I spend time in my training to help them wear the full armor of God and pray (Eph 6:10-20).I give more attention to learning the stories of people I shepherd and disciple. Many of them bear scars similar to mine, but they don’t talk about their pain. In their silence, the enemy keeps them bound—so I want them to talk to me.I love even more what I do. Spiritual warfare makes ministry harder, but Jesus already disarmed the powers through His cross (Col 2:15). You and I have the responsibility of announcing victory that is both already achieved and still to be completed. What a privilege! 

May God grant you victory over the enemy today!

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Advent: Finding Purpose in the Waiting

Advent is a sacred invitation—a time to pause, reflect, and refocus on what matters most. As women, we navigate seasons of life that are often marked by waiting, longing, and deep yearning for connection. The beauty of Advent is that it meets us exactly where we are and points us back to God’s promises and purposes.

1. Advent Speaks to the Heart of Every Woman

Waiting is a shared experience for all of us. Whether it’s waiting for a college acceptance, the results of a job interview, the joy (or heartbreak) of a pregnancy test, or the final call letting us know a loved one has passed, waiting often shapes our lives. Advent reminds us that waiting isn’t wasted. It’s a sacred space where God works for His glory and invites us to see more of Him. Whatever season you find yourself in—whether one of anticipation or pain—know that He is present, shaping your story in ways you may not yet see.

2. Advent Reminds Us We Are Not Alone

The holidays can be bittersweet. For many, they bring loneliness—the empty chair at the table, the distance from loved ones, or the pain of unresolved relationships. But Advent reminds us that we are never truly alone. God pursued us so passionately that He became Emmanuel, “God with us.” That truth is a gift for your heart and one to share with others who are hurting or feeling unseen this season. His presence is a promise that we are known, loved, and never abandoned.

3. Advent Calls Us to Purpose in the Busyness

It’s easy to lose focus during the holiday season. From decorating for the women’s Christmas event to perfecting recipes for gatherings, the busyness can eclipse the purpose. Advent calls us back to the reason we celebrate: the story of redemption. This season brings unique opportunities to share the love of Jesus with those who might otherwise feel far from Him. Maybe it’s the friend who joins you at a Christmas Eve service or the neighbor who accepts an invitation to the Women’s Christmas Dinner. Advent reminds us to lift our eyes beyond the tasks and to see the mission right in front of us.

4. Advent Draws Us Into Worship

As women, we often pour ourselves out for others, especially during the holidays. But Advent is a call to stop and worship—to come to the manger and be still before the God of the Universe who wrapped himself in the skin of a baby. Worship isn’t just for Sunday services or candlelight gatherings; it’s for every day of Advent. When we worship, we’re reminded that Jesus doesn’t ask for perfection but for our hearts. Let the wonder of this season renew your spirit, so you can serve from a place of fullness rather than exhaustion.

Advent is more than a tradition; it’s a rhythm of remembrance. It draws our hearts back to God’s promises and His presence, offering us purpose and peace in the middle of life’s uncertainties. As women leading others to the heart of God, let’s step into this season with hearts open to what He wants to show us—about Himself, about our mission, and about the beauty of waiting.

Click here to download the Advent Reading Plan and consider using it in your women’s ministry or alongside the women you lead. Journeying through Advent together can deepen your connection to Christ and to one another this season.

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The Realignment of Churches in America

It isn’t just a political realignment taking place in America. There is also a profound realignment of churches. 

For most of our nation’s history, we have categorized churches into two broad categories: denominational and nondenominational. It was neat, easy, and comfortable. If you were a Christian, you were connected to a church in one of two major groups. The labels fit nicely. 

Then, in the denominational category, we had two main groups: mainline and “other” (not all churches in this latter category considered themselves “evangelical”). 

There was also the assumption, mostly correct, that the mainline churches were declining and the “other” churches were not. Those assumptions do not hold today. Mainline churches are not just declining; they are rapidly declining. In 1970, mainline churches accounted for 30% of the U. S. population with about 62 million members. By 2000, the mainline percentage was cut in half to 16% of the

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The Urgent Reality of Church Safety: New Issues Every Congregation Now Faces

Every church has a dual calling when it comes to the evils of the world: ensure safety and confront danger.

Ensure safety (internally): The church must be a place where every person is protected from harm.Confront danger (externally): The church is also called to send people out to preach the gospel in dangerous places.

A safe church is a threat to the enemy. An unsafe church undermines the gospel and is an asset to the enemy.

The High-Trust and Low-Security Environment

Churches, by nature, tend to be low-security and high-trust places. Their mission to welcome everyone and encourage attendance can make them vulnerable. With frequent gatherings and limited security checks, these environments can be perceived as soft targets for those with malicious intentions. Consider this matrix with different places. I’ve used the word “trust,” but you could replace it with “hospitality” and the same principles would apply.

High security and low trust: Everyone must go through security in airports. No exceptions. TSA agents assume anyone could be a risk and do not show much hospitality.

Low security and low trust: In shopping malls, anyone can come and go, and only a few shops contain security measures like metal detectors or armed guards. Most retailers have limited security. At the same time, these stores assume that anyone is a potential shoplifter. Hospitality and trust are not an emphasis.

High security and high trust: In many casinos, patrons are often treated with higher degrees of hospitality and trust. For the most part, anyone can play the games. Free drinks are offered as if you are an old friend or a longstanding client. But as we all know, hidden just behind the surface, these environments have some of the highest levels of security of any business in the world.

Low security and high trust: Churches have a unique environment in which guests are treated with high levels of hospitality and trust. If a church has a good first impressions ministry, new people receive parking spots of honor, free coffee or water, campus tours, welcome gifts, and a proper introduction to the pastor. Rarely does a church have metal detectors, armed guards, or any serious security measures.

Safe People, Places, and Systems

Safety within a church setting encompasses people, places, and systems. Unsafe conditions arise when one or more of these elements lack oversight or fall into neglect. For instance, trusting someone despite red flags or allowing unsupervised access to facilities can create vulnerabilities.

Churches must look honestly at their people and processes, ensuring that those in authority are held accountable, spaces are regularly maintained, and safety protocols are followed consistently. Harm occurs because one or more of these areas are unsafe. Safe churches have safe people, places, and systems.

New Realities of Church Safety

Maintaining church safety is more challenging than ever. Unless you isolate yourself as a “spiritual island for the frozen chosen,” you’re bound to encounter situations that test your safety measures. The more a church serves its neighborhood, the messier safety becomes. More people coming into the church means more potential for harm.

People are more aware than in the past. Always report every reasonable suspicion.Media outlets are quick to report church scandals. Whatever their motive, if someone is harmed, you should expect it to be covered by reporters. A coverup only exacerbates the harm of the incident.Since American churches are generally unhealthy, systemic problems exist. Wishing away systemic problems does not help.Church safety is as much a spiritual issue as a practical one. Satan is looking for easy targets. Unfortunately, he is finding them with our churches.Internal threats are more common than external threats. The strange guy in a dark trench coat is atypical. More common is the trusted, clean-cut individual no one suspects is grooming a child or family.The average age of a churchgoer is 60, and aging congregations have different safety problems and expectations. For example, ADA compliance has more of an impact on them than child check-in processes.

Churches today are tasked with a dual calling in a fallen world. They must ensure internal safety while also confronting external dangers. Internally, churches should be havens where everyone is protected from harm. Externally, they are called to go out and spread the gospel, even in risky settings. Remember, a safe church is a threat to the enemy, and an unsafe church is an asset to the enemy.

Safe Church Training is an on-demand, video-based training guide that can be used in individual ministries or with the entire church. A first-of-its-kind, comprehensive resource to equip your ministries to be a safe environment for children, students, and anyone who attends your church. With this simple-to-use resource, your church can create a safe environment where disciples of all ages are equipped to fulfill God’s calling in their lives.

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If I Had to Choose Five Church Metrics to Measure and Follow . . .

A sincere pastor asked me this question: If I only had to measure and follow five church metrics, what would be my top five choices? 

On the one hand, this pastor understands he needs to have some level of accountability. The church that does not measure something is likely not to value it. For example, if a church does not measure attendance, it could be saying, or at least implying, that it does not place a value on gathered worship. 

He is right. Pastors whose churches measure nothing are more likely to be in churches that are declining, discouraged, and disobedient. 

But that same pastor is wary of putting an emphasis on numbers. He resists the “nickels and noses” disposition of some of his peers. 

He is right again. We can get enamored with our statistics to the point that we lose sight of the ministry and the people behind them. 

Such is the reason he asked me the question. He knows he needs to have some level of numerical awareness and accountability. Would it be possible to follow five church metrics that would keep him informed and diligent? I have never been asked the question, so this article is my attempt to answer him, at least from my vantage point.

1. Conversions. The number of people who have become followers of Christ and integrated into the life of the church. These are the people who are saved and redeemed and publicly profess their salvation.

Measurement: Number of conversions year-to-date.Measurement Frequency: Once a quarter.Comparison: Number of conversions previous year-to-date.

2. Worship Attendance. The number of people attending all worship services. Include children, but don’t double-count anyone.

Measurement: Average worship attendance.Measurement Frequency: Once a month.Comparison: Numerical increase or decline from the same month last year.

3. Undesignated Giving. Sometimes called budget giving or unrestricted giving, this measurement calculates the total financial gifts that have no restriction on how the church uses the funds.

Measurement: Total unrestricted giving year-to-date.Measurement Frequency: Once a quarter.Comparison: Numerical increase or decrease from the same period last year.

4. Group Attendance. The number of people attending groups in the church. It goes by many different names: small groups, life groups, Sunday school classes, community groups, etc.

Measurement: The average number of people attending a group each week.Measurement Frequency: Once a quarter.Comparison: Numerical increase or decrease from the same period last year.

5. Net Giving. Total giving minus total expenses. This number lets you know if the church is increasing or depleting its cash funds.

Measurement: Year-to-date net giving. If total giving is more than total expenses, the church is increasing its cash. If the total giving is less than the total expenses, the church is depleting its cash.Measurement Frequency: Once a quarter.Comparison: Year-to-date previous year.

My five choices may seem overwhelming, but they can be straightforward. The person who is responsible for the church finances can provide you with metrics 3 and 5. And you likely know someone who can get you the other three metrics. You are getting four metrics every quarter and one metric every month. With this basic information, you can know a lot about the church you serve.

I would love to hear from you. How do you view church metrics? Do you follow metrics in your church? If so, which ones do you follow? Let me hear from you in the comments.

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We Are Entering a New Era of American Religion

When I entered graduate school in the fall of 2005, I knew I wanted to study religion and politics in the United States. The reason for that was simple—I cared deeply about both subjects and knew that if I could combine my passions with academic training and earn an educational credential, I would be in good shape to build a career. But here’s what else I knew: the United States was undergoing an incredibly significant religious transition. The rise of non-religious Americans was happening at a pace that was hard to grasp fully. I believed it would have profound implications for every aspect of society, including politics. I wanted to make it my career goal to describe these shifts and what they could mean for the average person. 

What I didn’t fully understand back in the late 2010s as I was moving my way through my doctoral program was that

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