Thom S. Rainer's Blog, page 15
October 23, 2024
Widowed and Worshiping: The Unseen Shift in Church Pew Dynamics
I pastored a little American Baptist Church in rural Southern Illinois for over seventeen years. When I took over the pulpit in 2006, around 50 worshipers would gather on a typical Sunday. A slow decline was already in place when I arrived. A big chunk of the membership decline came through death. I buried many people during my tenure at First Baptist Church of Mount Vernon. We never had a big split or a controversy. Thus, the downward slide could best be described as incremental, not sudden. By 2016, our numbers fluctuated between 25 and 35, depending on the time of the year and the weather. However, from 2020 onward, the decline accelerated. As the calendar turned to 2023 and 2024, the number of faithful folks gathered at First Baptist was significantly smaller.
In the six months before we closed our doors in July of 2024, it would be common
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October 21, 2024
Why Many Churches Seeking a Full-Time Pastor Can’t Find One
The ad made me smile at first.
Then, I realized my reaction was wrong. The church ad said it was seeking a full-time pastor and provided the following information. My response should have first been sadness. It was yet one of many churches that are unrealistically seeking a full-time pastor.
This ad was modified to preserve anonymity. But the facts are common in many churches:
Our church is looking for a full-time pastor. We have been without a pastor for over two years. Our town is growing, so we believe it will be a great opportunity for a pastor to lead us to growth.
Our average worship attendance before COVID was 88. Our current average worship attendance is 22.
The salary for the pastor is $34,000 annually. Please contact us directly if you are interested.
The median household income in this community is $64,000, but for families with a head of household between the ages of 25 and 44, the median income is $86,000.
Yes, this church will struggle to find a pastor, but there is more to it than just the pastor’s salary. If this church is typical, there will be six primary reasons the congregation will not find a pastor. Let’s look at each of them.
Yes, the pay is not reasonable.
Most pastors are underpaid. Most full-time pastors are underpaid. Most pastors could get a secular job with much better compensation. But churches should not try to find the cheapest person available.
To be fair to the church noted above, they are likely offering the best salary they can because of their size and decline. But they should not expect a full-time pastor with that pay. According to our research, full-time pastors work 58 hours a week. The church above is, therefore, offering $11.27 per hour.
Churches think that the past can be repeated.
This church had full-time pastors in its relatively recent history. Indeed, a church of 88 average worship attendance likely has the funds to modestly compensate a pastor to work full-time. I get it. They long for the good old days.
No church should live in its past. While the Word of God is unchanging, the world around the churches has changed dramatically. It is time for the church above to think outside of the box.
A parsonage is rarely a solution.
Some churches have a parsonage. They rightly view the parsonage as “in-kind pay.”
Realistically, though, most pastors do not want to live in a parsonage. The family who moves into the parsonage is commonly restricted in what they can do to the house. The pastor does not build any equity since the church owns it. The parsonage rarely comes close to what the pastor’s family would choose if they bought their own home.
As a personal note, when I was a pastor in Florida, my family and I lived in a parsonage. The church graciously paid our electric costs as well. One day, an influential church leader showed up at our (their?) home to tell us that our electric bill was too high. He asked to look around to find the problem. He concluded that we were using our dryer too much with three young children. He told us to stop using the dryer. They would put up clotheslines in the backyard.
Fortunately, another church member intervened. He had a professional look at our home. He found that the old HVAC was not functioning well. It was replaced, and the electric bill went down significantly.
A new pastor is perceived to be a silver bullet.
Though I don’t know for certain, I would not be surprised if the church above thinks that a new pastor would solve all of their challenges. We refer to that attitude as “the silver bullet syndrome.” Ironically, the term originated from folklore, where silver bullets in a gun were the only weapons capable of killing a werewolf.
There is so much more I could say about churches, pastors, and werewolves. I will not yield to the temptation to do so.
There are fewer pastors available.
The demographics are obvious. The Baby Boomer generation, the largest generation in U. S. history, provided more pastors than any previous or succeeding generations. But Baby Boomer pastors are dying and retiring. Younger pastors are not replacing them. The numbers of pastors in Gen X, the Millennials, and, especially, in Gen Z are dramatically lower. Simply stated, there are fewer pastors available, especially full-time pastors.
We are following the trends on the median age of pastors in the United States. Our data indicate that the median age just hit 60 years old. That information speaks volumes about the paucity of available pastors.
Too many churches do not think outside the box.
Churches seeking full-time pastors often do not know another paradigm, nor do they see a new solution. But the possible solutions mean that the members of the church must do the ministry of the church. That’s not a bad thing!
The most common solution is the bi-vocational pastor, a solution that has existed for 2,000 years. Sadly, churches with bi-vocational pastors have often been perceived as second-class churches since they can’t afford a full-time pastor. Frankly, our team has worked with bi-vocational churches that are impacting their communities in extraordinary ways. When the laity are equipped and unleashed to do the work of ministry, churches get healthier.
We coined the second solution as “co-vocational.” It is a term that we prefer to “bi-vocational” for several reasons. First, “bi” means “two.” A bi-vocational pastor is a person who holds a church job and one marketplace job. But many pastors have multiple side gigs, not just one. “Co-vocational” thus includes pastors with one or more jobs in the marketplace.
We believe that “co-vocational” will communicate a new paradigm, whereas “bi-vocational” may have some baggage. We work with a number of pastors and staff who kept their marketplace jobs while accepting a part-time position in a church. They have embraced the term “co-vocational.”
A third solution is the circuit rider pastor, meaning that the pastor serves two or more churches. The circuit rider pastor originated largely in the Methodist tradition, where pastors would ride horseback along designated circuits to preach and lead churches largely in rural areas. These pastors played a vital role in the spread of Christianity in the United States.
Here is my bottom line. While we are entering a new era for churches in the United States and beyond, I see it as a new era of opportunity rather than problems. And it is this new model for pastors and staff that will likely play a significant role in this exciting future.
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October 14, 2024
Pastors, Stop Trying to Fix People’s Problems
I once made the mistake of giving my cell number to a troubled transgender alcoholic. For several nights in a row, I had the privilege of answering my phone at 2:00 AM, only to have the same conversation ending with the same advice: “Stop going to gay bars, getting drunk, and picking fights with drag queens.” My advice was simple. The situation was not.
The mistake was not that I reached out to someone desperate for help. Of that, I have no regrets. My mistake as a pastor was buying into this person’s perception of me. He thought I would “fix it” and give some magical advice to make the pain disappear. Of course, I shared the gospel. Of course, I shared how Jesus heals. But, I did little to lower the lofty expectations of my abilities to solve his issues. He believed I could fix it. I played the part. I am a pastor, after all. It’s what I do, right?
The Unhealthy Exchange
Crises are daily occurrences for most church leaders. Fires rage. We charge in with water pistols. We want to help. The leadership mistake is not the visceral reaction of jumping into a crisis. The problem occurs in a common exchange between shepherds and congregation, and this exchange only deepens the crisis and further entrenches the challenge.
In a crisis, the innate reaction of most followers is to call upon a leader to solve the problem. Presidents, counselors, teachers, dentists, and pastors all receive this call. Some problems are technical: I have a cavity; fix it! Other problems are adaptive and embedded deep within the culture. For instance, a pastor may make the technical change of reworking the worship style in a week, only to realize the adaptive problem is built into the culture of the church. All I did was add a drum set and remove the organ; why is everyone upset?
A cycle of distrust can form over time between followers (flock) and leaders (pastor). A congregation places unrealistic expectations on a pastor while at the same time granting the positional authority to lead them out of a problem. The pastor also makes unrealistic promises to gain power. When the pastor inevitably fails, the congregation rushes to blame the pastor. In Leadership without Easy Answers, Heifetz calls this the “leadership straight jacket.”
Sin nature pushes people to give problems and power to pastors in exchange for impossible promises. This exchange makes both leaders and followers feel better about themselves, for a time. The congregation gets to say, “It’s not my problem anymore.” Pastors think, “I like the power of being the problem-solver.” However, the cycle of distrust builds as people realize pastors cannot solve all their problems and rescue everyone from an intensifying crisis. The exchange slows as the congregation recalls power from pastors and blames them for the unresolved crisis.
The Congregational Prototype
A crisis exacerbates the tendency of pastors to fall into the trap of their congregation’s perceptions. Leadership in the church is—to a degree—the product of social construction by the congregation. In other words, perception is reality. What the people perceive about pastors becomes the reality of how they are defined. This attribution grows into a self-fulfilling prophecy for the leader and church.
If the leader fits the profile of expectations, then the exchange between congregation and pastor works more smoothly. A congregation is more likely to perceive a pastor as successful if the pastor’s characteristics and behaviors match the congregation’s implicit ideas of a pastor. The more leaders represent the congregational prototypes of how pastors should look and act, the more likely the church is to trust pastors and give them power. It’s why some people don’t trust pastors who wear ties (or low-cut t-shirts). They just don’t look like pastors. It’s why we talk about pastors being a “match” for a particular congregation. In general, prototypical leaders have more of a license to fail. In general, non-prototypical leaders have less leeway in what the church deems as acceptable behavior and leadership style.
A crisis pushes people further into camps. When a congregation likes a pastor (a positive prototype), people are more likely to grant authority and power. People are more inclined to assign blame when a congregation dislikes a pastor (a negative prototype).
The Real Fix
The goal for pastors is to avoid the trap of exchanging power for promises. The goal of a congregation is to get beyond their desires for an ideal prototype. In a crisis, however, the exchange becomes a drug. Pastors get their fix by being the drug of choice for their congregations. Congregations get their fix by a false high of temporarily discarding their problems.
Church leaders are called to equip people to see Christ as the solution. We cast vision. We lead. We teach. We do a lot. If we’re not careful, people might actually think we’re the ones who are doing the fixing. Stop trying to fix people’s problems. Lower the expectations of your ability to solve the problem. Raise the expectations to see Christ as the answer.
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October 9, 2024
Important! Calling on the Body of Christ to Help Churches Directly Affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton
I weep when churches are hurt. I rejoice when the body of Christ comes together to help these churches.
Today, I am prayerfully calling on you to help churches directly affected by two monster hurricanes.
We are still a long way from knowing the extent of the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. As I write this article, we are waiting for a direct hit on the Tampa Bay area by Hurricane Milton, likely near Bradenton.
Church Answers has three team members who live in or near Bradenton: Sam Rainer, Matt McCraw, and Wes Hamilton. These three men represent two churches, West Bradenton Baptist and First Baptist of Bartow. They are not merely waiting on a hurricane; they are waiting to act as first responders. They are putting their lives on the line to help others.
That is how the body of Christ works.
Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton affected hundreds, if not thousands, of churches. We at Church Answers want to help as many of these churches as possible. I have two specific and bold requests.
A Call to Fervent Prayer
Lives were lost in Hurricane Helene. Churches were devastated. Even now, we don’t know the extent of the fatalities and the damage.
By the time many of you read this article, Hurricane Milton will be hitting the Tampa Bay area. We will wait to hear the reports later.
And I will wait in earnest prayer for my own son.
Please pray. Please pray fervently for the churches, their leaders, and their members. Pray for God’s intervention and mercy. Start a movement of prayer where you are right now.
Please leave a comment at the end of this article when you pray. Let these churches know we have not forgotten them.
I personally thank you as the CEO of Church Answers and as a dad who loves his son greatly.
A Call to Sacrificial Giving
Many of you might not be aware that local churches are among the first responders. They need immediate funds for chainsaws, tools, wood, generators, and so much more. There will be more needs later, but we know the immediate needs.
Church Answers has set up a hurricane relief fund for churches at our sister not-for-profit organization, Now Go Network. Over 250,000 churches in America contact Church Answers every year. We know the churches. We know how to help the churches. We are ready to help many churches in the paths of two monster hurricanes.
Please consider giving sacrificially to help the churches. Your tax-deductible gift to Now Go Network will go directly to the churches. Here is the link: https://nowgonetwork.org/donate/?donation_term=once
Thank you so very much. Thank you for your prayers. Thank you for your collective hearts. The body of Christ is absolutely amazing.
Thom
P. S. Please leave a comment letting us know you are praying.
P. P. S. Please send a sacrificial tax-deductible gift to the churches. Here is the link https://nowgonetwork.org/donate/?donation_term=once.
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When You’ve (Almost) Lost Hope for Your Unbelieving or Prodigal Loved Ones
I’ve heard the story so many times lately that it seems hardly a week passes by without my hearing about this grief: believing loved ones praying for family members who’ve never followed Christ or who have abandoned the faith of their upbringing. Sometimes it’s parents praying for teen and adult children; at other times, it’s teen and adult children still praying for older parents and grandparents.
I know this anguish because I prayed for 36 years for my dad and 47 years for my mom before they both became Christ-followers. I would be lying if I said that I never once lost faith or doubted God in the decades that I prayed. I was a pastor for a number of those years, but even I wondered if God were ever going to answer my prayers. It felt like the more I prayed, the worse the situation seemed.
My wife, Pam,
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October 7, 2024
6 Things that Happen when You Know Prayer Warriors “Have Your Back”—and a Challenge for You
I have several prayer warriors (actually, I have 20 on my list today) who intercede for me regularly. Some pray for me and Pam every day. Others pray when I request it. I know it sounds cliché to say, “Prayer really matters” . . . but, I continue to learn how much it does. In fact, here are some ways the prayers of my support team have changed my life:
I know every day that I’m not alone. No matter what I face today, I know God is with me – and knowing these friends are praying for me keeps that truth in front of me. My prayer warriors may be all over the world, but still they are with me. They are followers of God who remind me that He is with me.I deal with temptation differently. That is, because I know others have already taken my name to the throne of God before I face temptation, I’m more prepared to deal with it. I realize, then, that if I choose to be disobedient, I’m ignoring the conviction of the Spirit and the prayers of God’s people.I can tackle tough situations more readily. As a seminary dean, I sometimes have to deal with difficult situations. The same is true when I’ve been a pastor or interim pastor. Frankly, I don’t like confrontation. When I know my prayer warriors are with me, though, I’m more willing to do whatever I need to do in these situations.I worry less. I confess that I still carry too many burdens on my own, but here’s the reality: I don’t carry them nearly as long when I remember that I have prayer support. These folks praying for me would want me to leave my burden at Jesus’ feet—and they’re right.I look forward to doing ministry. Every time I speak somewhere, I email my prayer team to let them know. I’m not sure I can put into words how much more I love doing ministry when I know these folks have already been interceding for me. Their prayer ignites my passion and gives me strength for the work.I pray more. When you know the power of prayer because of the persistence of your prayer warriors, you will want to pray more. To be honest, my daily prayer is that God would make me a man of prayer others would turn to in need. I want to be like the several folks who take prayer seriously on my behalf.Now, here’s my challenge to you: enlist at least 2-3 prayer warriors who will commit to praying for you regularly. Work with them to determine the process you will follow as a team. If you already have these kinds of prayer warriors who “have your back,” make sure you’re intentionally seeking their support.
Prayer really, really does matter.
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October 4, 2024
The Hidden Struggles of Pastor’s Wives: Overcoming Church Hurt
October, a month often dedicated to celebrating pastors, also offers a unique opportunity to acknowledge the invaluable role of their wives. As a pastor’s wife for nearly two decades, I’ve experienced the incredible privilege of witnessing God’s work firsthand. Yet, this privileged position also comes with its share of challenges, including betrayal, loneliness, and even a sense of spiritual warfare.
The term “church hurt” encapsulates the painful experiences that individuals can encounter within a church setting. For pastor’s wives, who are often expected to serve, encourage, and lead, the wounds inflicted can be particularly deep. These experiences, often kept hidden, contribute to the loneliness and discouragement many face during difficult seasons of ministry.
The Invisible Ache
Church hurt for pastor’s wives can manifest in countless ways, often leaving us feeling isolated, undervalued, and betrayed. I’ve personally experienced being ignored, uninvited, talked about behind my back, and constantly feeling like I had to be the bigger person. The sorrow I’ve carried is deep, but it’s also led to a more intimate and profound relationship with Jesus.
Mirroring What We Experience of Jesus
One of the most painful experiences I’ve faced as a pastor’s wife was when a longtime member and friend unexpectedly left our church. Through a series of misunderstandings and unspoken words, it felt like we’d been dropped. The pain was intense, and I questioned everything. I cried out to God, pleading for His intervention, but the situation didn’t unfold as I had hoped. In moments of pain and confusion, the Bible has been my anchor, and even in the midst of pain, God is working redemptively and has a purpose in the journey.
Church Hurt Forces Me to Practice What I Preach
The “one another” passages in Scripture apply to us as well. We can’t bear with one another if we isolate them. We can’t love those who slander us if we respond with harsh words or passive-aggressive behavior. In our hurt, we have the chance to live out the gospel we preach. Just as I need grace, I must extend it to others. Instead of being quick to speak, I must listen, understand, and seek to be right with God rather than with people. I fear that our experiences can lead us to believe God is only for “us” and needs to deal with “them,” but in reality, He’s coming after all of us.
To gain insights into overcoming church hurt, I reached out to pastor’s wives from diverse backgrounds. Their wisdom and experiences offer valuable guidance for those navigating similar challenges. I hope as you read their words you feel seen and know that you aren’t alone in this journey.
Support and Community:
“I think ensuring you have some kind of support of community outside of the church… This has been immensely helpful to us.”“We need to be willing to seek help personally… either with a trusted mentor and/or through counseling.”“Best advice I was given was to be like a sponge or a rubber ball. Soak up the love and encouragement when it happens and let all the negativity bounce like a rubber ball.”“We need to be willing to seek help personally in order to have a safe place to process hard seasons of ministry, hurtful relationships, unkind words & actions directed towards us, etc. either with a trusted mentor and/or through counseling.”Perspective and Forgiveness:
“Don’t blame the church as a whole when a few people hurt you.”“In all of our cases of hurt there have been deeper issues. Choosing to pray for those who have hurt us and love them has been hard but worth it.”“Try to take absolutely nothing personal. After all, the church is full of a bunch of sinners.”“Remind yourself to be an example…there is always someone watching who may not know Jesus…and to be like him and love and have compassion…even when (and mostly when) it’s not the easiest thing to do.”“The hardest lesson for me to learn as a young PW was to not expect ‘seasoned’ folks to be saintly. Age/leadership position does not always bring Christlikeness. I had some hard wake-up calls with some in these categories.”“Embrace the sufferings of Jesus. I know that is easy to say but when I found myself betrayed by people in the church I thought were my friends, all I had to cling to was that Jesus went before me and he knew that pain as well as anyone.”“Pray for them and forgive them, same advice Jesus gives us.”“I would say cling to the Word of God, to your Husband and family. Remember, your Husband is leading a church full of all the above and more.”“Sometimes you have to let people be wrong about you. God sees what’s going on. Eyes on Jesus.”“The church at its best is the best the world will ever get.”“Whatever the challenge from people, God’s spirit moving and His word advancing are still the solutions to that problem.”“These people in your church are made in God’s image. God loves them the same way He loves you. Keep your focus on Jesus and His love for the sinners.Practical Tips:
“When you go into a difficult meeting, always keep your eyes soft.”“Don’t force yourself or try to make yourself fit in by overdoing it.”“Understanding the limitations of communication and human nature.”Church hurt is a painful reality for many pastor’s wives. It can lead to feelings of isolation, betrayal, and discouragement. However, it can also be a catalyst for personal growth and spiritual development. By turning to God’s Word, practicing forgiveness, and seeking support, we can overcome church hurt and find healing. Remember, even in the midst of pain, God is working redemptively in our lives and the lives of those around us.
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September 30, 2024
Four Reasons Why “Evangelism” Is Often Misunderstood in Churches
It’s Chuck Lawless’ fault.
Okay, the previous sentence is tongue-in-cheek. My friend and co-laborer in ministry, Chuck Lawless, has cited 2 Corinthians 2:4 so many times that I often get it stuck in my mind.
To be clear, getting it stuck in my mind is a good thing. Look at the verse:
Satan, who is the god of this world, has blinded the minds of those who don’t believe. They are unable to see the glorious light of the Good News. They don’t understand this message about the glory of Christ, who is the exact likeness of God (2 Corinthians 2:4, NLT).
This one verse is so rich in its depth that I could spend hours trying to understand its full import. But for simplicity’s sake, we can say unhesitatingly that Satan does not want people to become followers of Christ. He blinds them to the gospel until the Holy Spirit removes the scales from their eyes, often through our personal evangelism.
While I grasp the fundamental issue of Satan blinding unbelievers, I have given my life in ministry to attempt to understand why believers don’t evangelize on a regular basis. Satan is pleased to blind unbelievers, and I know he is pleased when believers don’t evangelize. Concurrently, he is pleased with non-evangelistic churches.
It is that previous sentence that has compelled me to study both evangelistic churches and non-evangelistic churches. Why are some churches evangelistic and others are not?
There are many paths I could take to attempt to answer that question. For now, one of my research-based answers is that many church members are confused about the meaning of church-based evangelism. The confusion often lies in understanding what constitutes an evangelistic ministry in a church. Here are four examples of the confusion.
Misunderstanding #1: Community ministries are not typically evangelistic.
Please hear me clearly. Community ministries are vitally important to the communities churches serve and to the churches themselves. Jesus commands us powerfully and clearly that we are to feed the hungry, give water to the thirsty, visit those in prisons, provide clothing to those who have none, and care for the sick (Matthew 25: 34-40).
But churches can use their community ministries as a substitute for sharing their faith. Our consulting team at Church Answers frequently hears from members who think their church is evangelistic because it has a food or clothes ministry. For sure, members can share the gospel with those who receive these ministries. But it is rare to hear about a church that actually reports conversions and assimilation into the congregation.
Misunderstanding #2: Big church events are not typically evangelistic.
Our team hears a similar conversation almost every week when we ask church members what their church does evangelistically. One of the common responses describes their annual Christmas event or production with hundreds, perhaps thousands, attending. To be clear again, a big event can be evangelistic, but that is the exception and not the rule.
Most big events are services and ministries for the community, and many of them are attended by both non-believers and members from other churches. However, very few churches see conversions and assimilation from these events. Sadly, in some churches, the big event provides church members cover or excuses not to be evangelistic themselves.
Misunderstanding #3: Transfer growth is not evangelism.
When we ask church members if their churches are evangelistic, we often get a common response like, “Oh, yes, our church is really growing.” However, most of the growth in churches is transfer growth. The person has moved from another church in the community, so the church has grown by adding Christians at the expense of other churches.
Another example of transfer growth takes place when someone joins a church after they have moved from another location. Sam Rainer calls this growth “demographic growth,” but it is still non-evangelistic growth unless a person has been reached with the gospel and assimilated into the church. I am grateful that my church, The Church at Spring Hill, has grown by many people becoming followers of Christ. But we’ve seen a number of California Christians decide that they wanted to move to the Nashville area. That’s not evangelistic growth, though we love our California (and New York) transplants.
Misunderstanding #4: “Outreach” is not necessarily evangelistic.
Some churches describe their attempts to reach people not currently attending church as “outreach.” While outreach can certainly be evangelistic when it focuses on the unchurched, it usually includes ministries to reach Christians moving to the community and to believers who have been out of church for a while (typically called the dechurched).
Again, the word “outreach” might include church-based evangelism. But many of the church activities might not be evangelistic.
Steps Toward an Understanding of Effective Evangelism
After many years of research and church consultations, our team is getting closer to understanding how effective evangelism can take place in and through a local church. I know that this effective evangelism can neither be created nor contrived. It is the work of the Holy Spirit.
But we can seek to understand how the Holy Spirit works in these churches. If that gets us one step toward obedience to the Great Commission, our efforts will not be in vain.
We hope to unveil this research in 2025. In the meantime, let me know if your church or a church you know is reaching people with the gospel and assimilating them into the life of the church. I can’t wait to hear from you.
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September 25, 2024
Marx Was Wrong: How America’s Elites Are Embracing Religion
Karl Marx is an infamous and polarizing sociologist who still evokes emotions years after his death. Marx was a German author who lived from 1818 to 1883, and he is, of course, most famous for his short pamphlet The Communist Manifesto, published in 1848. The English version of this work runs less than 15,000 words but may be one of the most notorious pieces ever written. It emerged from Marx’s observations about how rapidly the world was changing around him due to the advent of mechanization and the Industrial Revolution. Marx noted how the move from rural subsistence farms to urban factories would have a tremendous impact on many people’s lives.
What stands out most in Marx’s work is his view of religion. He was not a fan of what he saw happening in Germany in the mid-1800s. The factory owners would use the Bible as a way to keep
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September 23, 2024
Getting Your Church Recession Ready Without Killing Your Ministry
I am not an economist.
But I am a pastor who must plan a church budget for 2025. What are the odds of a recession?
J.P. Morgan Research increased the recession probability by year-end 2024 from 25% to 35%. Other economists put the likelihood of a recession by year-end 2025 around 45%.
Here is the bottom line: There is a 50/50 chance you need to budget for a recession in 2025.
I know, that’s not helpful. Basically, the economists are saying anything can happen.
Since 1950, the United States has experienced a recession approximately every 6.5 years on average. These recessions have varied in duration, lasting anywhere from two to 18 months, with the average recession lasting around ten months.
What Happens to Charitable Giving During a Recession?
Historically, the drops are not drastic.
One study found that charitable giving is more sensitive to economic upturns than economic downturns, meaning economic booms were more likely to increase donations than recessions were likely to reduce them.
But is this trend changing? Maybe. Charitable giving declined by 11% ($59B) in 2022. It was the biggest annual decline on record, surpassing the drop of the Great Recession from 2008 and 2009. Then charitable giving increased by 11% in 2023 ($58B) but is still just short of the all-time high of $558B in 2021.
Are we at an inflection point with a potential downward trend in our future? Or will the upward trend of charitable giving continue? It’s anyone’s guess.
It’s important to note the difference between charitable giving and donations to churches. For decades, the church has lost ground with overall charitable giving.
Giving to churches has dropped even though giving to non-profits is up.In the early 1980s, churches received over half of all charitable giving.Today, churches receive less than a third of all charitable giving.Charitable giving is on the rise in the United States, but churches are receiving a smaller and smaller portion. People who give see the church as merely one option among many places to give.
The Real Culprit: Inflation!
Charities are encountering increasing costs, and as the economy deteriorates, many will experience a surge in demand for their services. Although recessions don’t always result in a drop in donations, the actual value of funds available to charities is diminishing due to increased expenses caused by inflation.
Personnel costs are up.Operating expenses are up.Deferred maintenance is getting more expensive.Mission partners need more funds.While revenue is up for some churches, it’s often not keeping pace with increasing expenses. For example, income is up in many homes, but not at the same pace as the increasing costs to feed and care for children—a common theme found across the United States with many families.
How You Can Prepare for a Potential Recession
What should you do? Even if we don’t experience a technical recession, inflationary pressures remain. Your church could feel the pinch of the devaluation of the dollar.
Be willing to stretch your personnel costs slightly beyond the 45% to 55% range. The longtime rule of thumb is 50% of a church’s budget should be dedicated to personnel. This rule still holds true generally, but you might need to stretch an extra percentage or two in order to accommodate the cost-of-living increases among church staff.Limit any new debt or personnel costs and wait until rates drop more. For churches already feeling the pressure of inflation, now is not the time to roll the dice with additional debt or place stress on the personnel budget with an extra hire.Do not count on significant increases in giving. Budget your revenue from 2024. Unless your church shows signs of substantial growth, I would be more conservative with budget increases.For cash flow purposes, ensure you understand the timing of your expenses. At my church, our giving dips slightly in the summer while expenses go up with camps, VBS, and neighborhood ministry. We know in advance that a slight cushion is needed by spring to cash flow in the summer.Challenge your people more, not less, during a recession. Remember, silence about giving will lead to apathy about giving. You don’t get unless you ask. Spiritual warfare starts in the bank account. Congregants often stop giving first before other areas of faithfulness begin to slip.Downsize or eliminate luxuries that deplete cash flow. You may need to cut that weeklong staff retreat or the expensive, big-name conference speaker.Build a reserve line item into your budget. Many churches do not have a contingency fund for unforeseen expenses. A church should have about three months of expenses set aside for emergencies. Start building this fund through your operating budget. In essence, you pay yourself with this tactic. As funds come into the operating budget, a portion is set aside for the contingency fund.You can plan wisely without sacrificing the heart of your ministry. Your church can weather a potential recession while fulfilling its mission and serving your community faithfully.
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