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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't,
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Kirill Petrovsky
I watched the election closely (as well as 538's forecasts) and they were quite correct. On election day they had Trump at approx 30% of winning - and that scenario fulfilled itself.
So I'd say that this book will teach you exactly that - what predictions mean and how to understand them.
So I'd say that this book will teach you exactly that - what predictions mean and how to understand them.
Joseph Davison
Yes, it will help you to resolve your fundamental misconceptions about prediction and probability that this question is founded upon. Then you too can start rolling your eyes when someone tells you that the polls and forecasters were all "wrong" about 2016.
Kate
Well, right now Nate Silver predicted that the Pennsylvania federal election would be neck and neck. Right now it is 50% vs 50% so I would say that he called that one right.
Nathan Anderson
Both of the answers below are correct, but I would also add that while Nate Silver does take a lot of flak for predicting that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016, he gave Trump a better chance than most other forecasters, and he was the first to admit he was wrong.
Len Knighton
Is this book reliable? Are you looking for predictions that have been fulfilled? Don't look here, although he did predict that Donald Trump would run for President (in 2012).
Silver looks at the science of predicting. It isn't foolproof. This is not a crystal ball.
Silver looks at the science of predicting. It isn't foolproof. This is not a crystal ball.
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