Satyajeet asked this question about The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't:
I was about to pick this book, but I became a little skeptical after what happened with Nate and 538 in 2016. I could be wrong because I don't have much information on what (and why it) happened, so I am not actually judging him. Should I read this? Is this book reliable?
Kirill Petrovsky I watched the election closely (as well as 538's forecasts) and they were quite correct. On election day they had Trump at approx 30% of winning - and…moreI watched the election closely (as well as 538's forecasts) and they were quite correct. On election day they had Trump at approx 30% of winning - and that scenario fulfilled itself.
So I'd say that this book will teach you exactly that - what predictions mean and how to understand them.(less)
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