Satyajeet asked this question about The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't:
I was about to pick this book, but I became a little skeptical after what happened with Nate and 538 in 2016. I could be wrong because I don't have much information on what (and why it) happened, so I am not actually judging him. Should I read this? Is this book reliable?
Joseph Davison Yes, it will help you to resolve your fundamental misconceptions about prediction and probability that this question is founded upon. Then you too can…moreYes, it will help you to resolve your fundamental misconceptions about prediction and probability that this question is founded upon. Then you too can start rolling your eyes when someone tells you that the polls and forecasters were all "wrong" about 2016.(less)
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