Nate Silver's Blog, page 39
September 18, 2020
2020 Senate Election Forecast
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FiveThirtyEight
Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate
Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split.
Average outcome: 50.5
53 R seats
54 D
80% ofoutcomes fallin this range
Morelikely
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
53 R SEATS
7.0% chance
7.0% chance
Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 54 seats.
In 42 in 100 scenarios, Republicans win control
In 58 in 100 scenarios, Democrats win control
When both parties hold 50 seats, control of the Senate is decided by which party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.
Want to see other versions of the forecast? Click the magnifying glass in the lower left!
2020 ELECTION COVERAGE
Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election
By Nathaniel Rakich
More And More Americans Aren’t Religious. Why Are Democrats Ignoring These Voters?
By Daniel Cox and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Forecasting each Senate seat
Icon Legend
Solid R
≥95% R
Likely R
≥75%
Lean R
≥60%
Toss-up
Lean D
≥60%
Likely D
≥75%
Solid D
≥95% D
Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding.
In the Louisiana race and Georgia’s special election, multiple candidates from each party are facing off on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, two candidates go to a runoff.
US GENERAL
Biden is favored to win
See the forecast
How the Senate forecast has changed
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast.
As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 
September 15, 2020
Why Some Latino Voters Are Backing Trump
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks to Carlos Odio, the co-founder of Equis Research, about political trends among Latino voters. They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and whether scandals still matter.
September 14, 2020
Politics Podcast: Trump Is Narrowing The Gap With Latino Voters
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Recent polling shows that President Trump is improving his standing among Latino voters in the presidential race, particularly in Florida. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends among Latinos. They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest could be biased against Republicans (as they were in 2016) and whether scandals still matter.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
September 9, 2020
States That Are Not Normally Competitive Are Competitive In 2020
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discuss which states could be competitive in the 2020 election. And we bring you another segment of “good use or bad use of polling?”
September 8, 2020
Politics Podcast: The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Weird
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As Republicans have improved their standing in the Midwest and Democrats have made headway in the Sun Belt, some states not usually considered competitive are now in play. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how those trends are playing out and what it means for the 2020 electoral map. They also assess whether a recent Military Times poll of active-duty service members is a good or bad use of polling.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
September 4, 2020
Trump Has An Electoral College Advantage Again This Cycle
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how our 2020 presidential forecast has changed — and they answer some listener questions.
Politics Podcast: If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College
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As he had in 2016, it appears that President Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College, setting him up to potentially win reelection while again losing the popular vote. On this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how big Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College might be and answer questions from listeners.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
August 31, 2020
There’s Not Enough Evidence Yet To Know Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Affect The Election
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew asks whether there is evidence that civil unrest will harm Joe Biden’s chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III.
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