Mark Boss's Blog, page 9

A cool new channel called "Geek and Sundry"

Mostof the time here at Chimp we discuss weighty, important subjects like particlephysics, dark nets and grizzled langurs. But then sometimes we just try to spread the word about cool stuff.
Duringa recent board game fest, my friends had me laughing so much I said we shouldrecord our games and post them online so people could howl at ourcomments.  That's probably not going tohappen, but here's something even better--a new YouTube channel called"Geek and Sundry."
Geekand Sundry is building an interesting lineup of web shows, including Tabletop,wherein Wil Wheaton plays board games with people (and crushes their hopes ofwinning.)  Other shows include The Guild(a comedy now in its fifth season), Sword and Laser (a Science Fiction andFantasy book club), and more.  Aparticularly intriguing show is Dark Horse Motion Comics, which apparentlyanimates Dark Horse comic book favorites like Hellboy and the BPRD.
With tech-savvy folks likeFelicia Day and Veronica Belmont creating its content, I expect Geek and Sundrywill be a lot of fun when it begins airing Sunday, 1 April.

What is Probability?

Thisweekend my friends and I played a board game called Stone Age, where you hunt,collect resources and construct buildings. During the game, a player drew a card that called for rolling dice todetermine what resources we'd get.  Hewanted to roll a '6' because that meant he'd get a valuable farm, and so wetalked about the odds of rolling a '6' with four dice.
Thisleads us to probability.  Probability issimply the measure of how likely something is to happen.  It can be a small thing, like the flip of acoin, or something big, like the likelihood you'll get into a car wreck. 
Aprobability can be expressed as a fraction between 0 and 1, or as a percentageof 0% to 100%.  In our daily lives, wemay not take the time to write down the exact fractions or percentages, but wemake educated guesses all the time.
Ifyou're choosing what route to take home from work and you know it's the Fridaybefore a three-day weekend, you'll predict what highways or bridges will be jammed,and then choose a different road.  Ifyou're in an office pool for the NCAA basketball tournament, you'll figure somerough probabilities in your head as you pick your bracket winners.
Wedo this stuff all the time, so we shouldn't let the math part scare us.
Sincethe 1500s, mathematicians and gamblers have studied probability.  Famous thinkers like Fermat and Pascalexamined this topic, and there has long been a connection between betting andmath.  Even the phrase "games ofchance" tells us they involve probability. One of the early papers on probability, titled "Doctrine ofChances" by DeMoivre, contained problems which calculated the odds ofwinning lottery tickets.
Oneodd branch of this area is actuarial science, where insurance actuaries usemath and statistics to make probability predictions about all sorts of things,including death.  An early example ofthis is the London Life Table created by John Graunt in the 1600s.  Graunt used the lifespans of 100 people inthe city and noted how long they lived, which provided useful data about theappalling mortality rate among children of that era.
Ifyou're curious how many more years you may live, follow this link to a SocialSecurity chart.  The chart does not takeinto account where you live, or if you're in a dangerous occupation, etc., soit is quite broad.  But you can look atyour gender, figure out what age you were in 2007 (when the chart was made),and then look at the column labeled "Life Expectancy" and see howmany more years you may live.  It issobering. 
Anda reminder that you should use well the days you have on this Earth.  
(Sources include:  Education World, an article by Amy Troutmanat Wichita.edu, and Social Security Online. The pic is from Google Images.)

John Singer Sargent, An Artist Who Stood His Ground

The other night I was reading a Jack Higginsthriller--The Judas Gate--and one of the characters in the story is a portraitpainter.  It got me thinking about portraitsand wondering if portrait painters still exist. But now and then in a bank or a corporate office or a state capital you'llsend an actual portrait painting, so such artists must be available.
When I think of portraits, I think of one of thebest painters of that type, John Singer Sargent (1856-1925).  Sargent was American, but born in Florence,Italy, and he seemed to spend much of his adult life moving around Europe andthe United States.  Like people in manyprofessions, he went where the work was. He studied in Germany, Italy and France, spending four years in Pariswith Emile Auguste Carolus-Duran. 
Some critics dismiss Sargent's work as toocommercial.  After all, he receivedcommissions to paint pictures of rich people and politicians, including twopresidents.  (Example above is of Lady Agnew)  However, I find this anarrow view.  Sargent not only paintedportraits, but landscapes and watercolors, too. Also, Sargent was not content with art as a hobby--he was a professionaland he wished to earn his living as artist. In those days, painting a portrait was a good way to improve his skillswhile also making money to eat.  And whenshown to the public, the paintings were excellent advertisements for his business.
In the early 1880s, Sargent painted three full-length portraits of womenthat received good reviews and his career was taking off.  But in 1884, at the age of 28, he paintedMadame Gautreau in Paris.  The paintingwas exhibited as Madame X, and it caused a storm of negative opinion becausepeople thought it was too sensual. Demands were made that he alter the painting, or remove it, and even hisfriends worried that his career would be ruined, but Sargent stood hisground.  He refused to take the paintingdown.

By today's standards, Madame X (seen above) is quite tame.  But at the time, Sargent was a young artistwith his whole career on the line.  However,he clung to what he believed in.  Hebelieved in the beauty and value of his own work, and he would not bow topopular opinion or pressure. 
It cost him.  Wealthy patrons inFrance stopped hiring him for commissions, and his money situation grew so badhe couldn't afford paint supplies. Eventually, he moved to England and had to start over again.  Fortunately, he did find work and his careerresumed.  Sargent made many trips to theUnited States, and during World War 1 visited the war zone in France, resultingin a haunting painting of soldiers blinded by mustard gas.  In 1925, he died of a heart attack while homein bed. After his death, some critics complained about himworking for the rich on portraits designed to impress the middle class.  They ignore the fact that Sargent stood firmin the face of public displeasure, even though it hurt him financially.  I believe he showed moral courage, somethingwhich is often absent from business decisions made in the public eye.  Equally important, he continued to practicehis craft, pushing himself to improve and to try new things even late in life.
And that's a pretty good example for all of us.
(The following sources were helpful:  JohnSingerSargent.org, Artcyclopedia,Spartacus Educational, and Ray Carney's American Painting.  The images :  top is Lady Agnew from National Galleries, middle is Madame X from Harpers Bazaar, bottom is Gassed from SpartacusEducational.)

What is a Darknet?

Nowand then I see the term 'Darknet' online, and you've probably seen it,too.  So what is a Darknet? Well, itdepends on who you ask.
Thereare several terms bouncing around the Internet: Dark Web, Deep Web, Deep Net, and Darknet.  Oh, and Anonymous Networks.  It gets confusing.  This post will simply address Darknets and AnonymousNetworks, and save the remaining terms for another day.
Let'sstart with how the Internet normally works. You want to visit a website, so your computer sends a request in theform of data packets.  Each packet isaddressed with where it came from (your computer) and where it's going (thesite you want to visit).  When a datapacket reaches a web server, it looks at the address, and passes it along tothe next server until it reaches its destination. 
YourIP address, which is the key to your location and identity, remains knownbecause there is a clear trail from your computer to its destination.
In2002, four Microsoft employees wrote a paper titled, "The Darknet and theFuture of Content Distribution." Their angle was that protecting copyrighted material like music with DRM(Digital Rights Management) would be difficult if people resorted to file sharingon their own private Darknets.
Darknetsare decentralized, non-commercial, private networks that function using P2P(peer to peer) or F2F (friend to friend) protocols. 
Whatdoes that mean? A Darknet is where people go to anonymously share files.
PopularTorrent-style sites that share music and games may not be true darknets becausethey are not between trusted peers, but instead let any user connect with anyother.
However,even Darknets are not truly anonymous because your Internet Service Providercan inspect your data packets if they think you're sending spam or piratinggames or something nefarious.  To counterthis, some users move to Anonymous Networks like Tor and i2p, which use 'onionrouting.'
Onionrouting places layers of encryption around your data packet, and as the packetmoves from router to router, a layer of encryption is peeled away.  By the time it reaches its destination, thatweb server can only see the last place the packet came from, not its originallocation (your computer).
Likeany technology, Darknets and Anonymous Networks can be used for good orevil.  Credit card thieves, childpornographers, and pirates can use them to sell or trade files.  However, citizens of oppressive regimes like Syria,Iran or China can use them to communicate and organize with less fear of beingarrested.
Ididn't find data on how many Darknets are in use or how many people use them,but I think they are here to stay. People want online anonymity for a variety of reasons, and that ismotivation enough to keep building new Darknets every day.
(I drew information fromWitnessThis (especially the Comments section), Null Byte and Wikipedia.  The pic is from:  Vagabondish)

Sunspots, Solar Flares and the threat to Earth

This week we have a guest post from Torger Reppen.  Please enjoy.
* * *
From Space Watch:

January 19, 2012 - CHANCE OF AURORAS: NOAA forecastersestimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME (coronal mass ejection.)  High-latitude sky watchers should be alertfor auroras.  Earth's atmosphere has beenpuffing up in response to increasing levels of UV radiation from sunspots. Thisis good news for satellite operators, because a puffed up atmosphere helpsclean up low-Earth orbit. Meanwhile, sunspot 1401 poses a threat for someM-class solar flares.

* * *I read the information above on January 19th.  I didn't quite understand it all but I foundit extremely interesting.  An event aslarge as the one described above is not rare, occurring perhaps a few times ayear.

The sun has solar storms much like the gaseousplanets have regular storms, and these storms are often called sunspots.  Sunspots produce incredible amounts of energyand are as bright as a welder's arc, but appear dark compared to the rest ofthe Sun.  Sunspots sometimes cause solarflares and coronal mass ejections (CME).

Solar flares are like the Balrog's flaming whip(from Tolkien's Lord of the Rings) grounded in the internal layers of the sun,and they exert some ionic and magnetic influence on our   atmosphere, whereas CMEs fling huge hunks ofplasma into space.  This plasma can bevery large and hit several planets at the same time.  Some scientists estimate the CME event onJanuary 19th may have ripped away 2-5% of Mercury's atmosphere.

So a big piece of plasma may be hurling towards Earthwhile I'm watching sitcoms--completely unaware that the human race will befried any minute.  Not looking good forthe last of the Miller's grizzled langurs either.   Fortunately, our magnetosphere repels most ofit and channels a tiny bit of it to the polar regions, causing aurora borealis.

But I was perplexed by the sentence, "This isgood news for satellite operators, because a puffed up atmosphere helps cleanup low-Earth orbit."  So many questionsin that one sentence.  I thought this wasbad bad bad for satellites.  And it is, fora few minutes or hours.

In 2007 China used an old satellite as a missiletarget, and created 3,000 pieces of space junk large enough to be tracked.  The satellite was orbiting more than 500miles out, and the debris that settled into orbit went everywhere from 100miles up to farther out.  TheInternational Space Station is around 220 miles out.  This debris is really bad for every nationthat has satellites.  In ten seconds,China increased the amount of space junk by 15%.

So space debris is bad for satellites because itcan wreck them if they collide, and the debris lasts not just for a few minutesbut for years or decades or possibly forever. But when the Sun's CME plasma hits the thermosphere (which is almostpure space, but has a few molecules) it heats up.  This causes expansion from its usual 50 to300 mile range out to a 50 to 500 mile range.

The increased range of this extremely thinatmosphere is enough to slow down many pieces of debris enough that they nowhave a decaying orbit and spiral down into Earth.  Interestingly, one article I read stated thatthey generally aren't going fast enough to burn up like a meteor. At any rate,the atmosphere puffs up and "grabs" some space debris, therebycleaning an orbital area of space that is popular for satellites.

A bit more about our ever vigilant and protectiveMother Earth; Earth has a magnetic field. It is quite strong and deflectsnearly everything. It is likely impossible for life to thrive on Earth withoutit because we would be subjected to far greater radiation and our atmospherewould be ripped away from time to time due to solar CMEs.

Mercury has a weak magnetic field, so if a largeCME hits this planet it may scour the planet's surface.  Geologic evidence in Martian rocks show thatMars used to have a magnetic field.  Noone knows why the magnetic field on Mars went away.  Also, more and more evidence points to theposition that Mars actually had a much denser atmosphere a billion years ago,complete with huge oceans.  Without a magnetospherethe atmosphere would be eventually be stripped away due to solar activity.  Mars currently has an atmosphere about 1/200ththe density of ours.  Earth is a specialplace.

* * *
(Sources include:  The Extinction Protocol, Astronomy News and Updates, and NASA.)  (The picture is from:  NASA SolarDynamics Observatory)

Hacking for Money

Hackinghas changed.  It used to be a college kidwho liked to explore networks late at night, sitting in his dorm room at hiscomputer, sipping Mountain Dew.  Or maybea thief trying to steal credit card numbers--a criminal, but not a violent,gun-toting criminal.
Thathas changed.  Consider the new term inuse:  Advanced Persistent Threats.  That's what they call it now.  Instead of independent actors, hackers havebecome employees of governments, corporations and criminal syndicates.
Hackinghas gone from being a tool of exploration to a weapon of choice.  It is flexible and provides those who engagein it with plausible deniability.  Inthis weaponized version, hacking can steal intellectual property and technologyfor economic or military gain, sabotage enemy infrastructure and crush internaldissent.
Anarticle by Adam Piore in the January issue of Popular Mechanics provides somegood examples of these variations.  In2011, a cyber attack on Japan's Mitsubishi corporation targeted both militarydata about submarines and missiles, and civilian data on nuclear powerplants.  After an investigation, Japanconcluded that China was behind the attack.
Backin June of 2010, Iran's nuclear program discovered its computers were infectedwith the Stuxnet worm, a type of malware which loads faulty code into thesystem.  Because the United States andIsrael have openly opposed Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, they were themain suspects in the sabotage.
Oneof the scariest applications of hacking is for political oppression.  Iranian hackers invaded the Dutch companyDigiNotar and used the data to intercept and identify 300,000 Gmail users inIran.  In a tightly controlled regimelike Iran, opposition parties use email and social networks to communicate, sothis type of hacking poses a direct threat to their safety.
Inaddition to all these, criminal hacking has expanded into well-funded groupsusing very clever methods.  But accordingto Piore's article, the most aggressive hackers are countries, especiallyChina, Russia and Israel.
Asan online individual, you're probably not of interest to anyone other thanidentity thieves and spammers (and advertisers and your own government.)  But ifyou work in any industry related to military technology, computer services,telecommunication or infrastructure like water and electricity, you may findyourself targeted through social network messages and email containing baitlinks that will load malicious software onto your home or work computer.  So think carefully before you click that nextlink.

(The pic is of a VenusFlytrap trying to eat a frog and is from www.animalseatinganimals.com)

Liars and Outliers: Thoughts and Conclusions

Ina previous post, we looked at the first half of Bruce Schneier's interestingbook.  To recap, Liar and Outliers examineshow trust mechanisms work, whether you're ordering products onlinefrom people you've never met, or you're paying a neighborhood kid to mow yourlawn. In order for commerce to function, there must be a certain level oftrust.
The second half of the book deals with Organizations, Corporationsand Institutions and how their competing interests work out in real worldsituations.  A model often used in thebook is that of fishing.  Overfishing willdeplete the stock and eventually ruin the industry, so most individuals andcompanies don't engage in it.  However,'defectors' may overfish because of the short term benefits and the low risk ofgetting caught.
The fourth and final section explains how societal pressures to acttrustworthy can fail, and how technological advances are changing how we dobusiness.  Inside the technology chapter,Schneier puts forth a list of principles for designing effective societalpressures, and I think it's a key point in the book.
To encourage everyone to act in the best interests of theirsociety, we use moral pressure, reputational pressure, institutional pressureand security systems.  But our cavemanbrains are still best evolved for face-to-face transactions and handling lifein a village.  These pre-sets don't workas well in a world where living in a city means having eight million neighbors,and doing business on the Internet with people we've never met.
So Schneier argues that we need to be careful in how we build oursocietal pressures.  He points out thatwhile modern civilizations may concentrate on laws and security, it's foolishto disregard the value of morals and reputation because they still matter topeople.
He also makes a good point about the need for 'general andreactive security systems.'  In otherwords, it's better to think broadly than on specific tactical threats.  Schneier writes, "One example iscounterterrorism, where society is much better off spending money onintelligence, investigation and emergency response than on preventing specificterrorist threats, like bombs hidden in shoes or underwear."  I think any airline traveler who's had theirshampoo bottle or fingernail clippers taken away, or had to undergo an invasivepat down, would probably agree.
Schneier writes about the need for transparency, too, especiallyin corporations and governments.  Thesystem of checks-and-balances built into many democracies works best when theactions and finances of large actors like governments and corporations are keptopen.  And I think all our governmentsand corporations could do with some transparency.

(Thanks to Bruce Schneier for writing aninteresting book, and to Lori at the ThePRFreelancer.com for the advancecopy.)

Comments Mystery Solved

For those who have tried to leave comments over the last month and then wondered why they didn't show up, I believe the mystery is finally solved.  Somehow in the transition from the old Blogger interface to the new one, my Settings did not hold.

Comments are moderated to prevent spam, but my email address was not filled in, so Blogger had nowhere to send the moderation notices to.  I just figured this out today and fixed it, so please comment on anything that strikes your fancy.

Sorry about that.  I am my own worst tech support.

Now go comment on something.  Thank you.

Commit to What You Do

Tonightis the Academy Awards for movies.  ButI'm still thinking about something Foo Fighters' Dave Grohl said at music's GrammyAwards two weeks ago.

I'mbiased when it comes to music, so I'm not the best judge of who should get aGrammy Award.  I hate most pop musicbecause it's less about the music and more about the performer.  Pop stars build followings based on beingoutrageous, and putting on concerts centered around lavish sets andshowmanship.  Their music is the slicklyproduced product of careful studio tweaking.
Giveme hard-driving rock and roll.  I wantlong-haired freaks who spent their high-school years in their basementpracticing chords and scribbling lyrics in spiral-bound notebooks.  Spare me the glitter and the posturing.
That'swhy I was happy to see the Foo Fighters win several Grammys.  What really struck me was how they made theiralbum "Wasting Light."  Theymade it in a garage.  Just like athousand unknown, struggling bands make theirs.
Intheir acceptance speech, Dave Grohl said, "To me this award means a lotbecause it shows that the human element of making music is what's mostimportant.  Singing into a microphone,learning to play an instrument and learning to do your craft, that's the mostimportant thing for people to do."
"It'snot about being perfect.  It's not aboutsounding absolutely correct.  It's notabout what goes on in a computer.  It'sabout what goes on in here (he pointed to his heart) and what goes on here (hepointed to his head)."
Brilliant.
Nomatter what you do.  Whether you playmusic, write books, paint houses, build furniture, teach math.  Whatever. Commit to doing your best at your chosen craft.  That is what's important. 
Andit's a philosophy we should all take with us when we get to work on Mondaymorning.
Here's the video fromYouTube:

Late February 2012 Update

Hey Readers,

I'm working on adding some new features here at Chimp, including handy Amazon links to my novels.  Also, I plan to have a guest post on Astronomy this coming week that I think you will enjoy.  Life outside the blog has been busy, so I haven't posted as much lately, but next week we will have new content.

Thanks to all the readers who visit.  And hey, if you'd like to leave a Comment on any story you enjoyed, I'd appreciate it. 

Thanks,
Mark