Erick Erickson's Blog, page 130

They Are Not Serious

Senator Helms once said, "Compromise, hell! That's what has happened to us all down the line — and that's the very cause of our woes. If freedom is right and tyranny is wrong, why should those who believe in freedom treat it as if it were a roll of bologna to be bartered a slice at a time?"

The Democrats and Republicans in Washington may be trying to compromise, but they just aren't that serious. They really aren't. And now a bunch of House Republicans are going wobbly, backing down from holding the line, and willing to take John Boehner's plan — a compromise wherein they are compromising only with themselves.

According to Forbes, a ratings downgrade would be worse than a technical default. Unfortunately, sources who have spoken to Standards & Poor tell CNN's Erin Burnett that John Boehner's plan — the one Allen West and others are lining up to support — would cause the U.S. to lose its AAA credit rating.

Why? No, ti has nothing to do with John Boehner embracing the McConnell idea of letting the President raise the debt ceiling without congressional approval and then letting Congress vote to "disapprove". But it does that too.

No, it's because the credit reporting agencies have said the U.S. Congress must show real cuts of $4 trillion or more. John Boehner's plan doesn't even come close in real dollar terms — excluding accounting gimmicks the credit agencies are not buying. John Boehner's plan could best be called "Punt, Kick, and Pass." It punts the problem to another stupid commission, kicks the can down the road, and passes more debt onto future generations.

So here is the great conundrum for the House GOP. Reid's plan cannot pass the House. John Boehner's plan probably can. Ultimately, John Boehner's plan and Harry Reid's plan are pretty close and both would probably result in a credit downgrade.

I suspect the House and Senate will use Boehner's plan as a compromise and get it passed. House Republicans may think they'll get another bite at the apple, but this could be it. But then, when the credit agencies downgrade our credit, the GOP will get the blame because it was the GOP's plan that passed. Don't believe me? I'd just point out Harry Reid intentionally opted not to have the debt ceiling fight back in December because he wanted Republicans to own it.

In fact, there is only one plan ready to go that meets the credit agencies' demands for substantial cuts. It is called "Cut, Cap, and Balance." It is only four votes shy of a majority in the United States Senate.

John Boehner has succeeded in dividing conservatives, even though many of them acknowledge Boehner's plan will cause a credit downgrade.

It need not be this way. House Republicans could hold the line. They've compromised enough. Why not fight instead? Fight for cut, cap, and balance. it's the only plan to avoid a credit downgrade.

The House GOP need not compromise. President Obama cannot afford to be the first President in American history to witness a default or credit downgrade. We've had 17 commissions in 30 years to cut our debt and the debt has gone up $13 trillion. What the House GOP is proposing is more of the same.

I interviewed Donald Trump last week and he pointed out the House Republicans are terrible negotiators. He said if the House GOP were fighting the revolutionary war, we'd still be British.

Instead of compromising with themselves, Republicans should hold the line on cut, cap, and balance and fight on.

They Just Aren't Serious

Senator Helms once said, "Compromise, hell! That's what has happened to us all down the line — and that's the very cause of our woes. If freedom is right and tyranny is wrong, why should those who believe in freedom treat it as if it were a roll of bologna to be bartered a slice at a time?"

The Democrats and Republicans in Washington may be trying to compromise, but they just aren't that serious. They really aren't. And now a bunch of House Republicans are going wobbly, backing down from holding the line, and willing to take John Boehner's plan — a compromise wherein they are compromising only with themselves.

According to Forbes, a ratings downgrade would be worse than a technical default. Unfortunately, sources who have spoken to Standards & Poor tell CNN's Erin Burnett that John Boehner's plan — the one Allen West and others are lining up to support — would cause the U.S. to lose its AAA credit rating.

Why? No, ti has nothing to do with John Boehner embracing the McConnell idea of letting the President raise the debt ceiling without congressional approval and then letting Congress vote to "disapprove". But it does that too.

No, it's because the credit reporting agencies have said the U.S. Congress must show real cuts of $4 trillion or more. John Boehner's plan doesn't even come close in real dollar terms — excluding accounting gimmicks the credit agencies are not buying. John Boehner's plan could best be called "Punt, Kick, and Pass." It punts the problem to another stupid commission, kicks the can down the road, and passes more debt onto future generations.

So here is the great conundrum for the House GOP. Reid's plan cannot pass the House. John Boehner's plan probably can. Ultimately, John Boehner's plan and Harry Reid's plan are pretty close and both would probably result in a credit downgrade.

I suspect the House and Senate will use Boehner's plan as a compromise and get it passed. House Republicans may think they'll get another bite at the apple, but this could be it. But then, when the credit agencies downgrade our credit, the GOP will get the blame because it was the GOP's plan that passed. Don't believe me? I'd just point out Harry Reid intentionally opted not to have the debt ceiling fight back in December because he wanted Republicans to own it.

In fact, there is only one plan ready to go that meets the credit agencies' demands for substantial cuts. It is called "Cut, Cap, and Balance." It is only four votes shy of a majority in the United States Senate.

John Boehner has succeeded in dividing conservatives, even though many of them acknowledge Boehner's plan will cause a credit downgrade.

It need not be this way. House Republicans could hold the line. They've compromised enough. Why not fight instead? Fight for cut, cap, and balance. it's the only plan to avoid a credit downgrade.

The House GOP need not compromise. President Obama cannot afford to be the first President in American history to witness a default or credit downgrade. We've had 17 commissions in 30 years to cut our debt and the debt has gone up $13 trillion. What the House GOP is proposing is more of the same.

I interviewed Donald Trump last week and he pointed out the House Republicans are terrible negotiators. He said if the House GOP were fighting the revolutionary war, we'd still be British.

Instead of compromising with themselves, Republicans should hold the line on cut, cap, and balance and fight on.

Morning Briefing for June 26, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 26, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. They Just Aren't Serious

2. The Absolution I Cannot Give

3. The History of Deficit Commissions 1982-2011

4. Again, No Compromise.

5. In Defense of Nick Ayers

———————————————————————-

1. They Just Aren't Serious

Senator Helms once said, "Compromise, hell! That's what has happened to us all down the line — and that's the very cause of our woes. If freedom is right and tyranny is wrong, why should those who believe in freedom treat it as if it were a roll of bologna to be bartered a slice at a time?"

The Democrats and Republicans in Washington may be trying to compromise, but they just aren't that serious. They really aren't. And now a bunch of House Republicans are going wobbly, backing down from holding the line, and willing to take John Boehner's plan — a compromise wherein they are compromising only with themselves.

According to Forbes, a ratings downgrade would be worse than a technical default. Unfortunately, sources who have spoken to Standards & Poor tell CNN's Erin Burnett that John Boehner's plan — the one Allen West and others are lining up to support — would cause the U.S. to lose its AAA credit rating.

Why? No, ti has nothing to do with John Boehner embracing the McConnell idea of letting the President raise the debt ceiling without congressional approval and then letting Congress vote to "disapprove". But it does that too.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. The Absolution I Cannot Give

For thirty years and seventeen debt commissions we have raised the national debt $13 trillion, seen taxes rise and fall and rise again, uncertainty come and go, and Washington remain unchanged. And now some of you want to seek cover by having yet another commission — but this time it will be different! Sure.

You went to Washington to change Washington. You went to Washington because you said it was broken and you worried about the future for your children and grandchildren.

And now, at the moment of crisis you are worried and second guessing yourself and looking for alternatives, ways out, and most of all a clear conscience. Cut, Cap, and Balance is the only plan that can save our credit rating and our financial integrity. I can offer you nothing else, nor should you waver from fighting for it alone. You should, however tired you may be of hearing me say it, hold the line.

But what you think will give you a clear conscience — the alternative you seek — is what has been done before. You punt. You kick the can down the road. You take the chimera and convince yourself it is real and you have done good.

It is your choice to take, not mine.

I give you no absolution. It is not even mine to give. I'm not a proxy for your children and grandchildren. It is their lives and their future you will affect.

A generation before you, men and women went to Washington saying they were going to turn the tide, stop the out of control spending, and stop the growth of Washington into our lives. They were going to do it for their children and grandchildren.

Now you sit where they sat. Now you do what they did.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The History of Deficit Commissions 1982-2011

Apparently, the Republicans in Congress need a brief remedial lesson in the history of debt ceilings in this country over the last thirty years.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Again, No Compromise.

I have grown weary of hearing the calls for bi-partisanship. The calls for "reaching across the aisle" and "bucking your party." And yes, I'm even tired of that sacred word that hushes the most stubborn of partisans: Compromise. Compromise in terms of leadership or lack thereof. Compromise with ulterior motives and double-speak. Compromise that hurts our country, indeed our world.

To some this is counter-intuitive and in stark contrast to the common wisdom put forth by much of the media. But the truth is, moderation & compromise have a dark and sordid past when it comes to governing nations. It gave us "The Great Society," which ensured generations of poor on welfare and the end of the need for a father. It gave us the "New Deal" & Medicare, which are quickly bankrupting our country. It gave us the Munich Pact and the Gaza Strip. It empowered North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons and is on a steady path to do the same with Iran.

Some would say it gave us the Constitution and the Emancipation Proclamation, but that is only partially correct. In order for the founders to compromise with one another they had first to establish that they were immovable in their stance against King George. For him there would be no compromise.

In order for Lincoln to bring the States back into Union, he had to stand his ground firmly and go to war with his own countrymen rather than "negotiate" or be "bi-partisan."

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. In Defense of Nick Ayers

I've got to take issue with this post by Matt Lewis going after Nick Ayers. It makes Ayers out to be some sort of arrogant jerk who gets handed things on a silver platter — not to mention being blessed with a lot of luck.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

In Defense of Nick Ayers

I've got to take issue with this post by Matt Lewis going after Nick Ayers. It makes Ayers out to be some sort of arrogant jerk who gets handed things on a silver platter — not to mention being blessed with a lot of luck.

Just as major league baseball managers probably get too much credit when things go well and too much blame when things go badly, top political operatives are sometimes anointed "the next Karl Rove" when they are lucky enough to work for a talented candidate during a great year. This phenomenon is aided by the fact that political writers are always looking for the next "it" operative. For example, fresh off of Sen. John Thune's win over former Majority Leader Tom Daschle, operative Dick Wadhams was seen as the next rising star. This designation abruptly ended when his candidate, Sen. George Allen uttered the word "Macaca."

The point is, working for Barbour in 2010 made Ayers look good — maybe too good for his own good.

I laughed when I read this because I used to think the same thing as Matt. I venture to say I've known Nick a lot longer. And anyone who knows anything about his background knows he neither gets things handed to him on a sliver platter nor is some silver spooned brat.

Our paths first crossed back in 2002. I was helping a friend run for Congress and Nick was a deer-in-headlights true believing College Republican from North Georgia whose goal in life was to drop out of school and drive a Democrat turned Republican named Sonny Perdue around the State of Georgia until Perdue lost.

That year changed everything.

The GOP had a surprise victory, took the State Senate, and made other major gains. People, myself included, forgot that it wasn't a done deal. Everyone thought Democrat Roy Barnes would win.

But the GOP's luck kept getting better. In 2004, the GOP took the rest of the state. And a lot of us, me too, just said, "Nah, Nick's just lucky. Right place. Right time."

But then 2006 came around and it was a terrible year for the GOP across the nation — except Georgia. Largely due to Nick and hand picked team, Georgia Republicans made gains while the GOP was going down in flames across the nation like Atlanta after Sherman.

Perdue bumped Nick up to the RGA. At the time, the RGA wasn't a heavily respected group. They had a fancy office, had excellent parties, and burned through their budget every cycle. Nick Ayers convinced Perdue who convinced the Governors to restructure and hang on to their money through cycles.

Nick's first big test came with Bobby Jindal in 2007. He did targeted ad buying that surprised a great many people and worked. In a bad year for the GOP, Jindal won. In 2009, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell won. They ran their own races, but the RGA played a good tactical role.

More importantly, behind the scenes, Nick Ayers was willing to get involved to try to get weak candidates out of the race. He didn't pick moderate over conservative. He focused on the weak guys and worked to get them out. And that was Nick. I saw it in several states first hand.

Then comes 2012 and everyone wants Nick.

From the time he signed with Pawlenty, other top operatives have had it out for him. Even the email he sent out in April, announcing he was joining Pawlenty's staff, drew immediate ridicule. As Politico's Ben Smith noted at the time, "Ayers, in his own email, writes a bit as though he's the one who will be running for president."

That email isn't an ego trip. That email is a heartfelt expression of a practicing evangelical Christian who all his friends knew had decided to step back away from politics for a bit and get the lay of the land. He could have gone to work for Palin, Perry, Barbour, Daniels, Huntsman, or many of the others.

I suspect that Nick Ayers knew Haley Barbour wasn't going to run. In fact, I'm pretty confident had Nick thought otherwise, he'd have sat out till Barbour was sure he would be running. As I said at the time Ayers went with Pawlenty, it was the clearest indication that Barbour wasn't running.

I think you can also interpret it as a clear sign that Rick Perry was seriously not running when Nick went with Pawlenty.

They all wanted him. They all could have had him. His email was explaining, as best he could, why he chose Pawlenty instead of waiting and an expression of his desire to remain friends even with those he did not go with. Nothing more. Nothing less.

I once thought Nick Ayers was a no nothing kid who got lucky. But he has proven me wrong in some very bad years for the GOP. He's proven himself uncompromising in his faith and he's proven himself, surprisingly to me, to be much more of an ideological conservative than people in his position typically are.

I don't underestimate him anymore.

Here's my prediction

Tonight, the President will address the nation and call for merging John Boehner and Harry Reid's debt ceiling plans.

In effect, the President says if he can get a one time increase, instead of having to have two takes to get what he wants, he's pretty much ready to go along with John Boehner's plan.

So here is what I predict will happen:

(1) Harry Reid's plan will die because it cannot get through the House simply because it is Harry Reid's.

(2) They'll go with John Boehner's plan and agree to raise the debt ceiling in one $2 trillion increment.

(3) The credit rating agencies will cut the credit rating of the United States. Already the Obama Administration is privately advising that a credit downgrade is likely no matter what.

(4) The President and Democrats will blame the Republicans and make the very persuasive case that they went with the GOP's plan to avert a crisis and it wasn't good enough, consequently higher interest rates are the Republicans' fault.

If the GOP is going to get the blame, they might as well go for broke and force Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Staff Briefing Notes on the Boehner Plan

I was just given the following bullet points from one of the individuals who got briefed at the staff level on John Boehner's proposal:

On background if you would please*, just left the meeting on the Boehner deal.

Some highlights:

Outlay reduction for FY 12 – $25 billion cut in discretionary spending.
Debt limit increase right away – $1 trillion
Does not touch Obamacare funding, Medicare or Social Security
Includes the McConnell automatic increase without a vote – they tried to sell us on "your boss isn't actually voting for a debt limit increase"
Joint Select Cmte Created – 12 Members, if Commission recs pass on entitlement reform, then Pres gets another debt limit increase
Budget Authority in FY 12 is $ 7 billion less than FY 11 in discretionary spending.

* I did get permission before running with this.

The Creepy Jon Huntsman Fundraising Letter

I admit up front that I"m biased, but good grief I can't let this pass.

I got a fundraising solicitation from Jon Huntsman today. Here's how it begins:

This is the chance you've been waiting for. It's been a long two and a half years of uncertainty, anxiety, confusion, and an overall lack of direction and sure-handed leadership.

It's time to turn the page. . . and today you can become part of something new and exciting that you'll be proud to lend your faith to.

It sounds like he's trying to sell me on a new social network. Facebook and Google+ not enough? Try Jon Huntsman (beta).

But the really creepy bit is "you'll be proud to lend your faith to."

I don't put my faith in politics, Mr. Huntsman. Just the God you don't seem comfortable talking about with all your new-ageyness.

I'll pass.

The History of Deficit Commissions 1982-2011

Apparently, the Republicans in Congress need a brief remedial lesson in the history of debt ceilings in this country over the last thirty years.

January 1982 – Commission on Fiscal Accountability of the Nation's Energy Resources — Debt at $1.14 Trillion

January 1983 – National Commission on Social Security Reform – - Debt at $1.20 Trillion

January 1984 – Executive Committee of the President's Private Sector Survey on Cost Control in the Federal Government aka – Grace Commission — Debt at $1.43 Trillion

July 1993 – National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement – Debt at $4.35 Trillion

September 1993 – From Red Tape to Results: Creating a Government that Works Better and Costs Less (Gore Commission) – Debt at $4.41 Trillion

October 1997 – National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare – Debt at $5.42 Trillion

February 1999 – Commission to Study Capital Budgeting – Debt at $5.62 Trillion

December 2001 – The President's Commission to Strength Social Security – Debt at $5.94 Trillion

August 2005 – National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission – Debt at $7.92 Trillion

November 2005 – President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform – Debt at $8.09 Trillion

October 2008 – Congressional Oversight Panel (Emergency Economic Stabilization Act) – Debt at $10.57 Trillion

February 2009 – President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board – Debt at $10.87 Trillion

May 2009 – Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission – Debt at $11.32 Trillion

September 2010 -The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) comprehensive report titled The Future is Now: A Balanced Approach to Stabilize the Public Debt and Promote Economic Growth – Debt at $13.56 Trillion

November 2010 – Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform – Getting Back in the Black – Debt at $13.86 Trillion

November 2010 – Bipartisan Policy Center (Domenici / Rivlin) – Restoring America's Future – Debt at $13.86 Trillion

December 2010 – National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (Fiscal Commission) – Debt at $14.02 Trillion

Speaker Boehner Commits Us To A Credit Downgrade

Congresswoman Renee Ellmers (R-NC) was on Fox News a while ago saying House Republicans are standing behind John Boehner and his proposal. They might want to think again.

Having now reviewed it, it seems pretty clear that we will lose our credit rating as it does a lot of what the credit agencies have said not to do — mainly to punt.

Beyond the Speaker's spin, here's what his plan actually does.

The plan would raise the debt ceiling by $1 trillion, but would only cut $100 billion next year (at best) to get a combined total of $1.5 trillion in cuts over ten years if subsequent Congresses leave everything alone. The odds of that happening are zilch. And do we really think in an election year either side will want to even touch $100 billion as a best case scenario? Hell, that's what the GOP promised when it took over in November and it failed to deliver.

More troubling, the Speaker wants to then have the debt ceiling fight again next year and you and I both know they will cave again and Barack Obama will be hailed as a conquering hero in the run up to the 2012 election.

But most troubling is this "Super Congress" commission that can force through tax increases and the Speaker's only assurance that it will not happen is "we won't put people on the committee who'd vote for tax increases."

Of course, Saxby Chambliss was one of those Republicans who was always opposed to tax increases until he suddenly wasn't.

As for the credit reporting agencies, they've said the whole time that we need a long term plan. This plan does nothing but punt.

It neither cuts, nor caps, nor balances. This plan only keeps faith with "cut, cap, and balance" in the way members of Congress are faithful to their wives back in district and cheat on them with every short skirted intern while in Washington.

The Absolution I Cannot Give

In the past 48 hours I have had call after call after call from members of the United States Congress. They've read what I've written. They agree. But they feel the hour is short and the end is nigh.

So some are calling looking for alternatives. Some are calling looking for energy. Many are calling looking for absolution.

And so I address them and put it here so you can see my advice.

I can give no absolution for what you may be about to do. I can offer no alternatives.

For thirty years and seventeen debt commissions we have raised the national debt $13 trillion, seen taxes rise and fall and rise again, uncertainty come and go, and Washington remain unchanged. And now some of you want to seek cover by having yet another commission — but this time it will be different! Sure.

You went to Washington to change Washington. You went to Washington because you said it was broken and you worried about the future for your children and grandchildren.

And now, at the moment of crisis you are worried and second guessing yourself and looking for alternatives, ways out, and most of all a clear conscience. Cut, Cap, and Balance is the only plan that can save our credit rating and our financial integrity. I can offer you nothing else, nor should you waver from fighting for it alone. You should, however tired you may be of hearing me say it, hold the line.

But what you think will give you a clear conscience — the alternative you seek — is what has been done before. You punt. You kick the can down the road. You take the chimera and convince yourself it is real and you have done good.

It is your choice to take, not mine.

I give you no absolution. It is not even mine to give. I'm not a proxy for your children and grandchildren. It is their lives and their future you will affect.

A generation before you, men and women went to Washington saying they were going to turn the tide, stop the out of control spending, and stop the growth of Washington into our lives. They were going to do it for their children and grandchildren.

Now you sit where they sat. Now you do what they did.

And after you do what they did — punt, set up a commission, raise taxes, use accounting gimmicks to resolve your conscience — others will come and replace you. But they will have less and their children even less. Because doing what those who came before you did expecting a different result from what they got is not just crazy, it is failure. There are no new ideas under the sun and they have all, but one, been tried in Washington. The only one that has not been tried is holding firm and saying no more.

Here and now at the moment to turn the tide you gave a fancy speech, furrowed your brow, and then decided the fight was too risky and boldness too bold.

In 1856, Abraham Lincoln said that the reason this country was great was because in this country unlike any other "every man can make himself." When you cut your deal and clear you conscience, the American Republic is not going to die, but the ability of men to make themselves will.

Here and now, this fight — this is the last best hope to turn back. The choice is yours. There is no absolution.