Erick Erickson's Blog, page 127

The Final Fall Back Position

Talking to a number of folks on the hill today, I think their final fallback — last man on the barricades position — should be this:

We'll give the Democrats a clean debt ceiling increase in exchange for them sending the Lee-Cornyn-Hatch Balanced Budget Amendment to the states.

Yeah, it may never happen. But a lot of people said they'd never vote for TARP until the market panic.

You let the market panic on Monday anticipating Tuesday and watch those Democrats come on board. Of course, I really don't think there will be a market panic and if the GOP makes it to August 3rd without going all wimpy again like Boehner just did, maybe they'll re-find their testicular fortitude.

But when push comes to shove and the GOP is at its final negotiating point, they should make the Democrats cave on something — S. J. Res 10, a Balanced Budget Amendment requiring a super majority to raise taxes and a clear prohibition on courts raising taxes.

Then let the Democrats explain why it is bad policy for the federal government to do exactly as 49 states and 300 million Americans are forced to do.

A note to you disenchanted tea party activists

I'm getting a lot of emails from tea party members rather upset with members of Congress today.

The funniest story I've heard today from several people on the hill is that the House GOP held a budget "listening" session to learn how to message better for tea parties and independents. The House GOP leaders really thought that they had the policy right and just needed to work on the message — troubling in that this is exactly what the Democrats told themselves as they went down in flames in 2010.

In any event, one of the pollster types in the room pointed out that the tea partiers and independents actually understand the message and understand the policy — they aren't rubes. It's just they hate the policy.

Anyway, for those of you who are disenchanted, just consider that because of your continued, aggressive stand in defense of freedom, Lindsey Graham and Orrin Hatch are holding the line even when Jeff Flake and Mike Pence are going wobbly.

Consider that a small victory in this large fight for fiscal sanity.

It Amazes and Baffles Me

A week ago, the United States House of Representatives sent a bipartisan measure to the United States Senate where it fell five votes short of a majority.

Today, John Boehner sent over legislation that couldn't even get all the Republicans to support it, didn't get any Democrats to support it, and will get less support in the Senate than last week's plan.

And now the Democrats have a talking point they didn't have with last week's plan — that this plan is not bipartisan and also that Boehner had to appease the far right, all of which was lined up behind last weeks plan in even greater numbers.

Adding horror and humor upon humor and horror, now Boehner syncophants are telling the Democrats that they've got to do something since the GOP has finally done something.

Were these people asleep last week when the GOP did something with Democratic help?

Oh, and some of the same people on our side who've been pooh-poohing those of us who said to stick with Cut, Cap, and Balance, suddenly, after the Boehner vote, are lamenting that something wicked this way comes.

Lord, please give me smarter enemies within my own tent.

Suckers

As I called it. John Boehner now has the votes to pass his plan.

Harry Reid just declared that the only compromise that will pass will be his plan. "The only compromise there is — is mine," he said.

Harry Reid will take John Boehner's plan, insert all the Democrats' demands, and send it back to the House daring the GOP to kill "the Boehner Plan."

The Democrats will line up to vote for it.

It will pass.

I do believe someone predicted this would happen.

Congrats, House Conservatives.

Barack Obama's Secret Plan to Save America, Solve the Debt Crisis, and Fight the Freemasons

Apparently, according to White House Chief of Staff William Daley, Barack Obama has a secret plan to raise the debt ceiling. We're not allowed to see it.

From the transcript with Wolf Blitzer:

BLITZER: So what you're saying is the president did present a plan to the speaker, John Boehner.

DALEY: Yes.

BLITZER: But – but he didn't…

DALEY: Right.

BLITZER: – make it public.

DALEY: No, because there's… both the speaker and – and the president had agreed and – that these sort of negotiations do not happen in public.

Now, where have I seen that before?

Josh Lyman: Uh, long story short – you're going to be reading a bit today about your secret plan to fight inflation.

President Josiah Bartlet: I have a secret plan to fight inflation?

Josh Lyman: No.

President Josiah Bartlet: Why am I going to be reading that I do?

Josh Lyman: It was suggested in the press room that you did.

President Josiah Bartlet: By who?

Josh Lyman: By me.

President Josiah Bartlet: You told the press I have a secret plan to fight inflation?

Josh Lyman: No, I did not. Let me be absolutely clear I did not do that. Except yes, I did that.

Bartlet: Are you telling me that not only did you invent a secret plan to fight inflation, but now you don't support it?

I'm guessing we'll see Barack Obama's plan next summer in theaters. It'll involve Iron Man, Thor, the Hulk, and Captain America with Samuel L. jackson as Barack Obama.

So Erickson, What Would You Do?

I keep getting asked what I'd do instead of the Boehner plan.

Well, today I'm filling in for Neal Boortz again and I'll tell you what I'd do.

Tune in live from 9:00 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET by clicking right here.

The phone number is 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

The Reality Check

At some point, whether during the TARP fight or . . . you name it . . . you come to the realization that there really aren't a lot of friends left around you on the front lines fighting back at what is, for all intents and purposes, what is arguably the side you're supposed to be on.

At that moment, you must perform a reality check. Your mileage may vary. But here's where I am this morning knowing Boehner's plan is more likely than not going to pass.

You've got to ask yourself what you'd do if you were a member of Congress. What would I do? Seriously ask that. Well, I would be a no. Republicans leaders have not really listened. They didn't even make it hard for us with medicare or medicaid reforms. They're increasing spending in some areas of the federal government while we know most of the cuts will never happen.

This is all politics right now hiding this as anything other than a missed opportunity and perpetuating the current system. It's not our fault we're standing on principle. It's their fault.

In some bit of cosmic humor, I wonder if all this action in the House happening this week is part of a grand cosmic coincidence that it is happening the week of the anniversary of Pee-Wee Herman's arrest in that theater.

The Worst Negotiators

I cannot decide who the worst negotiators are, Republican leaders or House conservatives.

John Boehner's plan couldn't get the votes last night so Boehner had to agree to add language conditioning a vote on a balanced budget amendment — an amendment House Republicans said could not pass so there was no reason to pursue Cut, Cap, and Balance. The vote will now be today.

The vote now is all about fear and messaging — fear of blame and a very weak message. In fact, the House will send a weaker message than Cut, Cap, and Balance. It'll also get less votes in either House than Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Last night on Sean Hannity's show, Senator Rand Paul said around a dozen Republican Senators will vote against Boehner's plan. And they must. Because if they do not, I have a sneaking suspicion that Harry Reid will strip out the balanced budget amendment language and the second vote on the debt ceiling, send it back to the House, and get it passed with a hundred Democrats.House Conservatives who don't like the plan, but are willing to trade their vote for a balanced budget amendment are about to be force fed the plan they don't like by Harry Reid and all with their help.

Frankly, the House Republicans have turned this vote into a cult of personality vote. It is not about saving the Republic, fighting Obama, or cutting the debt. And you remember that when they vote for it.

John Boehner has convinced House Republicans that they are both getting a good deal and that if it fails, Boehner himself is in jeopardy. So House Republicans will vote for the plan, see the Senate either kill it or butcher it, and then be stuck. It's all about John Boehner now — nothing else.

To console themselves, Boehner is going to give House conservatives their balanced budget amendment language and then have them do the very thing they promised they'd fight — fund Obamacare.

Yes, you see that's the dirty little secret glossed over by everyone. John Boehner's plan contemplates Obamacare's continuation. And House Republicans will sell their souls today for a balanced budget amendment that the Senate will strip from the plan in the best case scenario.

I think the House Republicans are the worst negotiators, but doggoneit — imagine if John Boehner had been half as aggressive with the Democrats as he has been these past 24 hours with House conservatives.

Oh, and I still don't think anyone can answer this question: if the House GOP only controls one half of one branch of the federal government and has no power, why the hell do they keep throwing plans against the wall hoping something will stick? Do they have Stockholm Syndrome?

House conservatives should vote no.

A balanced budget amendment is worth fighting for. A balanced budget amendment is worth holding the line for. But it is not worth being fooled into voting for a plan by it including a BBA on a subsequent debt ceiling vote knowing with 100% certainty that not only will Harry Reid strip it out in the Senate, but that your own leadership will sell you out on when it comes back to you. Your symbolic vote — and it is a symbolic vote — will be used to play you as a fool.

Hold the freaking line. The negotiating hand improves once you move past fear of the unknown.

Oh, and while you are at it, get rid of the deficit commission that you know good and well will raise taxes. It is only as strong as its weakest link.

Morning Briefing for July 29, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 29, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

This is going to be a fun day with a vote this morning on John Boehner's plan. If you want, you can listen to me cover it all live on the radio. I'll be filling in for Neal Boortz. You can listen live from 8:30 a.m. to 1p.m. by going to http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

— Erick

1. The Worst Negotiators

2. Five (Fairly) Short Points

3. Here's the Latest Democrat Plan

4. RINOs

———————————————————————-

1. The Worst Negotiators

I cannot decide who the worst negotiators are, Republican leaders or House conservatives.

John Boehner's plan couldn't get the votes last night so Boehner had to agree to add language conditioning a vote on a balanced budget amendment — an amendment House Republicans said could not pass so there was no reason to pursue Cut, Cap, and Balance. The vote will now be today.

The vote now is all about fear and messaging — fear of blame and a very weak message. In fact, the House will send a weaker message than Cut, Cap, and Balance. It'll also get less votes in either House than Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Last night on Sean Hannity's show, Senator Rand Paul said around a dozen Republican Senators will vote against Boehner's plan. And they must. Because if they do not, I have a sneaking suspicion that Harry Reid will strip out the balanced budget amendment language and the second vote on the debt ceiling, send it back to the House, and get it passed with a hundred Democrats.

House Conservatives who don't like the plan, but are willing to trade their vote for a balanced budget amendment are about to be force fed the plan they don't like by Harry Reid and all with their help.

Frankly, the House Republicans have turned this vote into a cult of personality vote. It is not about saving the Republic, fighting Obama, or cutting the debt. And you remember that when they vote for it.

John Boehner has convinced House Republicans that they are both getting a good deal and that if it fails, Boehner himself is in jeopardy. So House Republicans will vote for the plan, see the Senate either kill it or butcher it, and then be stuck. It's all about John Boehner now — nothing else.

To console themselves, Boehner is going to give House conservatives their balanced budget amendment language and then have them do the very thing they promised they'd fight — fund Obamacare.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Five (Fairly) Short Points

(1)  House Republicans are walking into an enormous trap. The Boehner plan is sufficiently similar to the Reid plan, in virtually all important respects, that its passage will lead to the following compromise:  

 The adoption of Boehner's ten years of sham cuts,which will be ephemeral beyond fiscal year 2012. Even John McCain said tonight that Gramm-Rudman (whose "sequestration" provisions are the enforcement mechanism for Boehner) became worthless because Congress just started declaring emergencies.
A commission which will report out large tax increases which cannot be filibustered. The "deciders" on the commission will be six Pelosi/Reid people and one squish Republican, who will be corralled into submission by:
A "trigger" which will make the pressure currently being applied to Congress seem small by comparison.

(2) Unless you can guarantee that it will go to the states, a guarantee of a losing vote on the balanced budget amendment is worthless.

(3) Dick Morris is correct that if Tuesday comes and goes, with only a shut-down of unessential government agencies, the American people will see Obama's fear-mongering for what it is.

(4) Furthermore, as 2008 taught us, the GOP can sell all of its principles and spend the better part of a trillion dollars and the stock market will still continue to fall –- particularly since Standard & Poor's is about to downgrade the U.S. for being too timid in debt reduction.

(5) Finally, Obama is currently reeling from his poor stewardship. For Republicans to capitulate and give him a "compromise" will reset him on a glide path to reelection. The liberal media is currently "spinning" that Republicans have won, but, after they lose, their surrender will be reported for what it was.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Here's the Latest Democrat Plan

Well, we really stuck it to the Democrats today. Instead of passing Cut, Cap, and Balance, a plan that will never pass the Senate and would have foisted the blame of a default upon us (supposedly), we orchestrated a plan to really own them. We came up with Boehner plan 2.0 that..well, …..will not pass the Senate – and will force a default, unless we agree to a watered down version of the watered down version.

As of late this afternoon, the underpinnings of a compromise Democrat plan were beginning to materialize.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. RINOs

I see a lot of John Boehner Plan supporters mockingly referring to guys like Mike Pence as "RINOs".

I have not and will not.

Let's be clear that while a number of us in the past few days have been called hobbits and "pro-Obama" this remains a disagreement among guys who are typically friends.

I disagree with Mike Pence and Allen West on this one. They are not RINOs and anyone who thinks they are is as deserving as the mental ward as John Boehner and his leadership team for dividing a group of people who stood united last week.

The problem as I see it is that we have a lot of good guys who are being team players at the expense of their principles.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

What to do #EERS

I keep getting asked "what I'd do differently."

Well, let's hash this out.

Listen live at http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.